中国宏桥铝价上涨带来利润弹性

12月2120262026202620352027230188.52028140图2：沪铝价格走势（位：元吨） 图3：国内氧化铝价格势（单位：元吨）1998-01-052000-01-051998-01-052000-01-052002-01-052004-01-052006-01-052008-01-052010-01-052012-01-052014-01-052016-01-052018-01-052020-01-052022-01-052024-01-052026-01-05

SHFE铝价（元/吨）

6000.005500.005000.004500.004000.003500.003000.002500.002000.00

平均价:氧化铝:全国 同花顺 同花顺图4：秦皇岛动力煤价走势（单位：元吨） 图5：山东预焙阳极价走势（单位：元吨）750.00700.00650.00600.00550.00500.00450.00400.00

长协价:秦皇岛动力煤(5500):半年:平均值

7500.007000.006500.006000.005500.005000.004500.004000.003500.003000.00

平均价:预焙阳极:山东:半年:平均值2022-12 2023-12 2024-12 2025-12同花顺 同花顺图6：几内亚铝土矿价格走势（单位：美元/吨）到岸价(CIF):进口铝土矿:三水铝矿(AL:45%,SI:3%):几内亚:日照港120.00110.00100.0090.0080.0070.0060.0050.002024-04-222024-05-222024-04-222024-05-222024-06-222024-07-222024-08-222024-09-222024-10-222024-11-222024-12-222025-01-222025-02-222025-03-222025-04-222025-05-222025-06-222025-07-222025-08-222025-09-222025-10-222025-11-222025-12-222026-01-22同花顺盈利预测及假设：645.9、19002025-20272024年202520750元/（）4%202628202624117元/（2025-2027年2075023000、23000元/吨）2035420354元2023-2024（33702774元/2025-20272800元/2025-2027（292023892389元吨。202568351023163元/（5%26%81/吨，同比上涨5%。截至2026年2月8日，2026年动力煤、阳极、氧化铝均价为684、54572560元/63/2025年公司吨电解铝、氧化铝成本分别小幅上升、明显下降，2026-20272025-202720242024表1：中国宏桥盈利预测关键假设2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E销量（万吨）铝合金575584595595595氧化铝872871872872872铝深加工产品5674747474吨价（元/吨）铝合金16,46417,55018,36320,35420,354氧化铝2,5603,4202,9202,3892,389铝深加工产品19,83420,32421,16323,15423,154吨成本（元/吨）铝合金13,60113,23213,30012,50012,500氧化铝2,7062,7672,5002,2502,250铝深加工产品17,64916,00016,00015,20015,200吨毛利（元/吨）铝合金2,8634,3185,0637,8547,854氧化铝-146653420139139铝深加工产品2,1854,3245,1637,9547,954公司财报、公司信评公告备注：液态铝合金、铝合金锭及氧化铝销量数据未包含自用部分表2：中国宏桥的主营业务预测（单位：亿元）2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E营业收入铝合金锭946.41024.31093.31211.81211.8铝合金加工产品265.6373.5254.7208.4208.4氧化铝115.0155.7155.7170.4170.4蒸汽9.38.18.18.18.1合计1336.21561.71511.81598.71598.7营业成本铝合金锭 781.9772.3791.8744.2744.2铝合金加工产品236.0241.1218.0196.2196.2氧化铝98.7117.7117.7111.8111.8蒸汽10.28.98.98.98.9合计1126.71140.11136.41061.11061.1毛利铝合金锭164.6252.0301.4467.6467.6铝合金加工产品29.6132.436.712.212.2氧化铝16.338.038.058.558.5蒸汽-1.0-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7合计209.6421.6375.3537.5537.5毛利率铝合金锭17.4%24.6%27.6%38.6%38.6%铝合金加工产品11.2%35.4%14.4%5.8%5.8%氧化铝14.2%24.4%24.4%34.4%34.4%蒸汽-10.3%-9.1%-9.1%-9.1%-9.1%合计15.7%27.0%24.8%33.6%33.6%公司财报表3：可比公司

2025-2027EPS2.20/3.28/3.29元2026年1244.25港币“最新收盘价EPS（元/股）PE（倍）公司名称公司代码业务类型（港元/股）2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E中国铝业02600.HK电解铝12.970.840.971.0613.7411.9010.89创新实业02788.HK电解铝24.741.271.972.4417.3311.179.02同花顺备注：盈利预测来自同花顺一致预测，截至时间为2026年2月9日。风险提示：资产负债表 单位:人民币百万元 现金流量表 单位:人民币百万元 2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E 2023A 2024A2025E2026E2027E流动资产合计87,395109,82578,70877,31977,797经营活动现金流净额22,40233,98329,60443,69342,142现金及现金等价物31,72144,77018,24018,31518,295合并净利润12,49824,54623,78436,74036,839应收账款及票据10,46616,37611,80912,47812,656折旧与摊销7,1416,5246,0546,0886,087存货33,95837,34434,93632,72733,013营运资本变动-983-4,459817751-498其他11,24911,33413,72413,79913,833其他非经营性调整4,7839,545-1,051114-285非流动资产合计112,925119,340136,405146,450147,160投资活动现金流净额-17,889-12,557-19,281-14,033-4,697固定资产净值70,20075,39375,48876,21476,941处置固定资产收益3842981,100600600长期投资28,69329,98546,94356,28056,280资本性支出-7,271-12,830-6,131-6,797-6,797商誉及无形资产3819,9929,9749,9569,939投资资产支出-9,359-1,069-16,958-9,3370其他13,6513,9714,0004,0004,000其他-1,6431,0432,7081,5001,500资产总额200,320229,165215,113223,770224,957融资活动现金流净额-200-8,431-36,884-29,604-37,476流动负债合计74,02976,98362,94256,74745,865长期债权融资2,6307,755-9,9891,000-1,792短期借款49,11845,10434,83329,35118,469股权融资00000应付账款及票据11,64814,93112,45711,74311,743支付股利-4,369-9,348-14,006-22,918-22,987其他13,26316,94815,65315,65315,653其他1,539-6,837-12,888-7,686-12,697非流动负债合计20,03533,56923,51824,51822,726现金净增加额4,33713,049-26,53075-20长期借款13,79225,78115,79216,79215,000期初现金余额27,38531,72144,77018,24018,315其他非流动负债6,2437,7887,7267,7267,726期末现金余额31,72144,77018,24018,31518,295总负债94,064110,55286,46081,26468,590普通股股本619619619619619储备91,199106,962114,871124,713134,574其他426219450460460归母权益总额92,245107,800115,940125,792135,653主要财务比率少数股东权益14,01210,81412,71416,71420,714 2023A 2024A2025E2026E2027E股东权益合计106,256118,613128,653142,505156,367成长能力负债及股东权益合计200,320229,165215,113223,770224,957主营收入增长率1.5%16.9%-3.2%5.7%0.0%营业利润增长率2.4%139.7%-14.8%51.3%0.0%利润表 单位:人民币百万元归母净利增长率获利能力31.7%95.2%-2.2%49.6%0.3% 2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E毛利率15.7%27.0%24.8%33.6%33.6%主营收入 133,624156,169151,177159,866159,866净利率9.4%15.7%15.7%23.0%23.0%营业成本 112,669114,006113,644106,112106,112ROE12.4%20.8%18.9%26.0%24.2%毛利20,95542,16337,53353,75553,755偿债能力其他收入00000资产负债率47.0%48.2%40.2%36.3%30.5%营销费用755661640677677有息负债率31.4%30.9%23.5%20.6%14.9%行政管理费用4,9534,9934,8335,1115,111流动比率1.21.41.31.41.7研发费用01,1551,1181,1821,182利息保障倍数5.29.512.222.126.9其他营业费用合计127-892505050营运能力营业利润15,12036,24630,89246,73546,735应收账款周转天数27.830.928.128.128.5利息收入004712740存货周转天数113.8112.6110.7111.0112.0利息支出3,8314,1252,8492,2141,815应付账款周转天数42.442.039.539.839.8权益性投资损益1,1931,7582,8001,5001,500每股指标其他非经营性损益3,4581,1111,100600600每股收益1.212.362.203.283.29除税前利润15,89032,79730,3