2025年油气田递减率的影响报告-

TheImplications

ofOilandGasFieldDeclineRates

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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TheImplicationsofOilandGasFieldDeclineRatesExecutivesummary

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Executivesummary

Discussionsonthefutureofoilandgasoften

overemphasisedemanddriversandunderappreciatesupplydrivers

Debateoverthefutureofoilandnaturalgastendstofocusontheoutlookfordemand,withmuchlessconsiderationgiventohowthesupplypicturecoulddevelop.Thisasymmetryismisplacedandathoroughunderstandingoftherateatwhichproductionfromexistingoilandgasfieldsdeclinesovertimeismoreimportantthanever.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)haslongexaminedthisissue.Declineratestheannualrateatwhichproductiondeclinesfromanexistingoilorgasfieldunderpinouranalysisofmarketbalancesandinvestmentneedsacrossalloutlookscenarios.

Nearly90%ofannualupstreamoilandgasinvestmentsince2019hasbeendedicatedtooffsettingproductiondeclinesratherthantomeetdemandgrowth.Investmentin2025issettobearoundUSD570billion,andifthispersists,modestproductiongrowthcouldcontinueinthefuture.Butarelativelysmalldropinupstreaminvestmentcanmeanthedifferencebetweenoilandgassupplygrowthandstaticproduction.Atthesametime,lessinvestmentisrequiredinascenarioinwhichdemandcontracts.

Adetailedlookattoday’sglobalsupplypicture

Thecompositionofoilandgasproductionhaschangedrapidlyinrecentyearswiththenotableriseoftightoilandshalegas.In2000,conventionaloilfieldscontributed97%oftotaloiloutputglobally,however,by2024thissharehadfallento77%asaresultofrisingoutputfromunconventionalfields.Inthecaseofnaturalgas,around70%ofthe4300billioncubicmetres(bcm)producedtodayisfromconventionalfields,withnearlyalloftherestbeingshalegasproducedintheUnitedStates.Evenwiththeshalerevolution,overalloilandgasoutputstillreliesheavilyonasmallnumberofsupergiantfields,largelyintheMiddleEast,EurasiaandNorthAmerica,whichtogetheraccountedforalmosthalfofglobaloilandgasproductionin2024.

Detailedanalysisoftheproductionrecordsofaround15000oilandgasfieldsfromaroundtheworldrevealsthattheglobalaverageannualobservedpost-peakdeclinerateis5.6%forconventionaloiland6.8%forconventionalnaturalgas.Thisvarieswidelybyfieldtype:supergiantoilfieldsdeclinebyanaverageof2.7%annually,whiletheaverageforsmallfieldsismore

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than11.6%.Onshoreoilfieldsdeclinemoreslowly,byanaverageof4.2%peryear,thanthoselocateddeepoffshoreat10.3%.TheMiddleEast,whichholdstheworld’slargestconventionalonshorefields,hasthelowestoilobservedpost-peakdeclinerateat1.8%,whileEurope,whichishasaveryhighshareofoffshorefields,exhibitsthehighestdeclinerateat9.7%.

Intheabsenceofinvestment,supplyfallsquickly

Alongsidetheobservedratedeclinesthatarederivedfromfieldproductionhistories,itispossibletoestimatethenaturalratedeclinesthatwouldoccurifallcapitalinvestmentweretostop.Thesedeclinesareevensteeper.Ifallcapitalinvestmentinexistingsourcesofoilandgasproductionweretoceaseimmediately,globaloilproductionwouldfallby8%peryearonaverageoverthenextdecade,oraround5.5millionbarrelsperday(mb/d)eachyear.ThisisequivalenttolosingmorethantheannualoutputofBrazilandNorwayeachyear.Naturalgasproductionwouldfallbyanaverageof9%,or270bcm,eachyear,equivalenttototalnaturalgasproductionfromthewholeofAfricatoday.

Naturaldeclineratesarebecomingsteeper.In2010,naturaldeclinerateswouldhaveledtoa3.9mb/dannualdropinoilproductionand180bcmannualdropingasproduction.Thesharpernaturaldeclineratesobservednowcomparedwith2010reflectsthehigherreliancetodayonunconventionalsources,changesinthemixofconventionalproduction(suchasmoredeepoffshorefieldsandNGLs),andahighersupplybase.

Mostunconventionalsourcesofoilandgasproductiongenerallyexhibitmuchfasterdeclineratesthanconventionaltypes.Ifallinvestmentintightoilandshalegasproductionweretostopimmediately,productionwoulddeclinebymorethan35%within12monthsandbyafurther15%intheyearthereafter.ShaleplaysintheUnitedStatesarealsobecoming“gassier,”raisingoveralldeclineratesasoil-richfieldsmature.

Undernaturaldeclinerates,globaloilandgassupplywouldbecomemuchmoreconcentratedamongasmallnumberofcountriesintheMiddleEastandRussia,withimplicationsforenergysecurity.MostoilproductionintheUnitedStatescomesfromfastdecliningunconventionalsources,whileintheMiddleEastandRussiamostoilisproducedfromslowlydecliningconventionalsupergiantfields.Absentfurthercapitalinvestment,advancedeconomieswouldfacerapidproductiondeclines–a65%dropoverthenextdecade–whiledeclineswouldbeshallowerintheMiddleEastandRussia(45%).

Theoilandgasindustryneedstorunfasttostandstill

Ifcurrentlevelsofproductionaretobemaintained,over45mb/dofoilandaround2000bcmofnaturalgaswouldbeneededin2050fromnew

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conventionalfields.Investmentinexistingconventionaloilandgasfields–forexamplethroughwellworkovers,infilldrilling,waterflooding–slowsproductiondeclinesfromthenaturaldeclinerate.Therewillalsobeacontributiontothesupplybalancefromoilandgasprojectsthatarestillrampingup,fromprojectsthathavealreadybeenapprovedfordevelopment,andfromongoinginvestmentinunconventionalresources.Still,thisleavesalargegapthatwouldneedtobefilledbynewconventionaloilandgasprojectstomaintainproductionatcurrentlevels,althoughtheamountsneededcouldbereducedifoilandgasdemandweretocomedown.

Around230billionbarrelsofoiland40trillioncubicmetres(tcm)ofgasresourceshavebeendiscoveredthathaveyettobeapprovedfordevelopment.ThelargestvolumesareintheMiddleEast,Eurasia,andAfrica.Developingtheseresourcescouldaddaround28mb/dand1300bcmtothesupplybalanceby2050.

Fillingtheremainingsupplygaptomaintaintoday’sproductionthroughto2050wouldrequireannualdiscoveriesof10billionbarrelsofoilandaround1000bcmofnaturalgas.Theseamountsarejustabovewhathasbeendiscoveredannuallyinrecentyears.Developingtheseresourceswouldaddaround18mb/dand650bcmofnewoilandgasproductionby2050.

Inrecentyears,ithastakenalmost20yearsonaveragetobringnewconventionalupstreamprojectsonline.Thisrepresentsthetimefromtheissuingofanewexplorationlicencetothemomentoffirstproduction.Thisincludesfiveyearsonaveragetodiscoverthefield,eightyearstoappraiseandapproveitfordevelopment,andsixyearstoconstructthenecessaryinfrastructureandbeginproduction.Aroundtwo-thirdsofconventionaloilandgasprojectsapprovedinrecentyearshavebeenexpansionsofexistingfields,andmorethan70%ofrecentconventionalapprovalsareoffshore.

DeclineratesarecentraltoIEAmodellingandanalysis

Asoilandgassupplyincreasinglyreliesonfieldswithhigherdeclineratesandcomplexoperatingenvironments,theinterplayofinvestmentdecisions,economics,andregulationwillshapesupplyresilienceandmarketstability.

AdetailedunderstandinghowthispicturecouldevolveunderpinstheIEA’sanalysisofinvestmentneedsineachofouroutlookscenarios,includingthosethatachieveambitiousclimateobjectives,andinformsouranalysisoftheimplicationsofthesescenariosforenergysecurity,markets,prices,andemissions.

TheImplicationsofOilandGasFieldDeclineRatesIntroduction

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Introduction

Someelementsoftheglobalenergysystemareevolvingrapidly.Nonetheless,oilandnaturalgasresourceswillcontinuetobeneededformanydecadestocome.Mostattentiontodayfocusesonuncertaintiesaffectingthefutureevolutionofoilandnaturalgasdemand,withmuchlessconsiderationgiventohowthesupplypicturecoulddevelop.Thisasymmetryismisplaced.Thesupplysidematters.Understandingdeclinerates–theannualrateatwhichproductiondeclinesfromexistingoilandgasfields–isacornerstonetoassesstheoutlookforoilandgassupplyand,byextension,formarketbalances.

Withoutongoinginvestment,oilandgassupplywanesbecauseofdeclinesinproductionfromexistingfields.Thesedeclineshavetobeoffset.Optionsinclude:investinginexistingfieldstoslowdeclineand/ortoboostproduction;discoveringanddevelopingnewfieldsofconventionalorunconventionalresources;orbyreducingdemand.Eachapproachrequireslargecommitmentsofcapital(albeitbydifferentparties).Achievingevenasmallreductionindeclineratescanresultinlargedifferencesinfuturesupplylevelsandinvestmentrequirements.Declineratesthereforehavemajorimplicationsformarketstabilityandenergysecurity.

Declineratesunderpinallofthescenarioanalyses,rangingfromshorttolongterm,undertakenbytheIEA.Inadditiontothisreport,theIEAhaspublisheddetailedanalysesondeclineratesinseveraleditionsoftheWorldEnergyOutlook(WEO),buildingonthepioneeringworkonthetopicfirstcarriedoutinthe

WEO-2008

and

WEO-2009

,aswellasinthemedium-term

OilMarketReport

series.

Thefocusofthisanalysisistoreviewcurrentdeclinerates,howthesehavechangedovertimeandwhy,whatthismeansforfutureoilsupply,andtoinvestigatetheimplicationsforinvestmentlevelsandenergysecurity.Itispresentedinthreechaptersandanannex:

Chapter1reviewsrecenttrendsinoilandnaturalgasproduction,resourcediscoveries,projectapprovalsanddevelopment,aswellaschangesincapitalandoperatingcostsandupstreaminvestment.

Chapter2looksatoilandgasproductionprospects,startingwithanupdatedanalysisoftherateatwhichoutputfromexistingfieldsisexpectedtodecline.Itcovershowdeclineratesvaryovertimeacrossfieldsofvarioussizes,locationsandcountries,aswellasbetweendifferenttypesofoilandgasproduction,mostnotablyconventionalversusunconventionaloil.

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Chapter3examinestheimplicationsofcurrentdeclinerates.Ittranslatesdeclineratesintopotentialdropsinfuturesupply,calculateshowmuchinvestmentisrequiredtooffsetthesedeclines,andconsiderstheimplicationsforenergysecurity.Notably,itconcludessomestrategicconsiderationsforpolicymakersandcompanies.

Thetechnicalannexpresentsthemethodologyusedinthisanalysis,declineratedefinitionsanddetailsoftheregionalandcountrygroupings

TheImplicationsofOilandGasFieldDeclineRatesChapter1.Oilandgasproductionandinvestment

mb/d

Chapter1.Oilandgasproductionandinvestment

Trendsinoilproduction

Oilhasbeentheworld’slargestsingleenergysourcesincethe1970s.Supplyanddemandoftenexhibitlargeyear-on-yearfluctuations.Demandincreasedbycloseto1millionbarrelsperday(mb/d)onaverageeachyearbetween2000and2024,exhibitingaslowerpaceofgrowthinrecentyears.In2024,globaloilsupplytotalled100mb/d,comprisingnearly98mb/dofoilproductionand2mb/dofprocessinggains

(Figure1

).

1

Naturalgasliquids,tightoilandextra-heavyoilandbitumenhavebeenthemaindriversofsupplygrowthoverthepastdecade.

Figure1Oilproductionbytypeandaverageannualchange,2000-2024

GlobalproductionAverageannualchange

100

75

50

25

3

2

1

0

-1

200020052010201520202024

2000-052005-102010-152015-192019-24

OnshoreconventionalcrudeShallowwaterconventionalcrudeDeepwaterconventionalcrude

NaturalgasliquidsTightoilExtra-heavyoilandbitumen

Other

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Otherincludescoal-to-liquids,gas-to-liquids,kerogenoilandadditives.

Thisanalysisdistinguishesbetweenconventionalandunconventionaloilastheyexhibitverydifferentproductiondynamics.Thereisnouniquedefinitiontodifferentiatethem.Weclassifythembasedonthereservoirswheretheoilisfound

(Figure2

).Conventionaloil–representing77%oftotaloilproductiontoday–is

1Inthisreport,oilsupplyincludesprocessinggains–thevolumeincreasethatoccursduringcrudeoilrefining–whileproductionexcludesthese.Productionofbiofuelsandlow-emissionsliquidhydrogen-basedfieldsarenotincludedwithinoilsupplyorproductionandarenotconsideredfurtherhere.

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TheImplicationsofOilandGasFieldDeclineRatesChapter1.Oilandgasproductionandinvestment

extractedfromreservoirswithhighpermeabilityandporositywhichallowthehydrocarbonstoflowfreelytothewellbore.Unconventionaloil–theremaining23%oftotalproduction–isfromreservoirswheretheoilismoredifficulttoextractorwhereitisproducedsyntheticallyfromotherhydrocarbons.

Conventionalcrudeoilaccountsforjustunder65%ofglobaloilproductiontoday,downfromashareof85%in2000.Justover40%oftotaloilproductionin2024wasfromonshoreconventionalcrudeoilfieldsandaround25%wasfromoffshorefields.

2

Since2000,around22mb/dofconventionalcrudeoilproductionwasfromoffshorefields.Increasesinultra-deepwaterproduction,ledbyBrazil,theUnitedStatesandGuyana,offsetdeclinesinshallowwatercrudeoilproductionwithlargereductionsintheUnitedKingdom,NorwayandMexico.

Figure2Classificationofoilsupply

Oilsupply

Refineryprocessinggains

Oilproduction

Conventionaloil

Unconventionaloil

Tightoil

Crudeoil

Naturalgasliquids

Extra-heavyoilandbitumen

Gas-to-liquids,Coal-to-liquids

Kerogenoil

Additives

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Naturalgasliquids(NGLs)areliquidsproducedwithinanaturalgasstream.Theyareseparatedfromthegasfloweitheratthewellhead(condensate)oratgasprocessingplants.Condensateisreportedaspartofcrudeoilinsomecountries,andaspartofNGLsinothercountries.Inthisreport,condensatesareconsideredtobeNGLsforallregionsandtypesofproduction,exceptfortightoilareasoutsidetheUnitedStatesbecausethesedataarenotavailable.NGLswere21%ofglobaloilproductionin2024,upfrom12%in2000,ofwhich14mb/dwerefromconventionaloilandgasfields,and7mb/dwerefromunconventionalfields,mainlyshaleplaysintheUnitedStates.

Tightoilisproducedfromshaleorotherverylowpermeability,continuousformations,usinghydraulicfracturingandusuallyhorizontaldrilling.Tightoilvolumesoftenincludebothcrudeoilandcondensates,butintheUnitedStates

2Offshoreproductionisoftenclassifiedbywaterdepth.Inthisanalysis,shallowwaterfieldsareatdepthslessthan

450metres(m),deepwaterfrom450mto1500m,andultra-deepwateratdepthsbelow1500m.

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theycanbeseparated.Inthisreport,UStightoilrefersonlytocrudeoil,withcondensatesfromtightplaysreportedasunconventionalNGLs.Globaltightoilproductionhasdoubledfromaround5mb/din2015to10mb/din2024,ofwhichmorethan90%comesfromtheUnitedStates.

Extra-heavyoilandbitumen(EHOB)isunconventionaloilcharacterisedbyveryhighviscosityandhighdensity(lessthan10°API).

3

ExtractionofEHOBrequiresspecialisedtechniquessuchasin-situthermalrecoveryormining.ItisproducedfromoilsandsinCanada,including3.5mb/dofsyntheticcrudeoilandnon-upgradedbitumenin2024,andtheOrinocobeltinVenezuelawith0.5mb/dproductionin2024.

Theremaining0.9mb/dofglobaloilproductioninclude:additives(non-hydrocarboncompoundsaddedtoorblendedwithoilproductstoenhanceormodifytheirproperties);coal-to-liquidsandgas-to-liquids,whichareliquidfuelsproducedthroughthechemicaltransformationofcoalornaturalgas;andkerogenoil(retortedkerogen-containingshale).

Figure3Oilproductionbyregion/country,2000-2024

OPECandRussiaOthercountries

md/d

60

60

40

20

40

20

200020052010201520202024

200020052010201520202024

UnitedStates

China

Europe

Othernon-OPEC

CentralandSouthAmerica

Canada

SoutheastAsia

SaudiArabiaRussiaIran

aIraqOUAEaOtherOPEC

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Note:UAE=UnitedArabEmirates;OPEC=OrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries.

TheUnitedStates,SaudiArabia,theRussianFederation(hereinafterRussia)andCanadatogethercurrentlyaccountforalmosthalfoftotalglobaloilproduction

(Figure3

).TheUnitedStateshasalmosttripleditsproductionoverthelast

15yearsandproduced20mb/din2024.SaudiArabiaholdstheworld’slargestconventionaloilreserves,anditproducedalmost11mb/din2024,ofwhich15%

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3TheAmericanPetroleumInstitute(API)gravityisaninversemeasureofdensityrelativetothatofwater.Aliquidwithlessthan10°APIisdenserthanwater.

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TheImplicationsofOilandGasFieldDeclineRatesChapter1.Oilandgasproductionandinvestment

wasNGLs.Russiaproducedaround11mb/din2024,around10%lowerthanitspeaklevelin2019,withadropinproductionfollowingitsinvasionofUkraine.Canadaproduced6mb/dofoilin2024,morethanhalfofwhichwasEHOB:unconventionaloilproductionhasdoubledinthepast15years,drivenbyanumberoftechnologicaladvancementsthathaveallowedlargervolumestobeproducedatlowercostsandreducedenergyinputs.

TheshareofglobaloilproductionoriginatingfromtheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)hasfallenfromabout39%in2000tobelow34%in2024.Afterseveralyearsofproductionrestraint,OPECmembershaverecentlybeguntounwindvoluntarysupplycuts,andtheirsparecapacityhasdroppedfrommorethan5mb/dinApril2025toabout4mb/dinJuly2025.

Supergiantoilfieldsaccountedforjustunderhalfofglobaloilproductionin2024.

4

ThesefieldsaremostlyintheMiddleEast,EurasiaandNorthAmerica.Theyhaveconsistentlyprovidedmorethan40%ofglobaloilproduction

(Figure4

).Giantoilfieldsaremorenumerousandaccountforaboutone-quarterofoilproducedworldwide.Aroundtwo-thirdsofthesupergiantandgiantfieldsarelocatedonshore,includingfieldsthatstraddlelandandsea,butwhichareproducedfromonshorefacilities.Therearethousandsoflargeandsmallfieldsandtheyaccountforjustunder15%ofglobalproduction.

Figure4Oilproductionbyfieldsize,2000-2024,andbyregion,2024

mb/d

100

75

50

25

GlobalproductionProductionin2024

MiddleEast

NorthAmerica

Eurasia

CentralandSouth AmericaAsiaPacific

Africa

Europe

20002005201020152020202425%50%75%100%

uSupergiantaGiantULargeaSmallaOilfromgasfields

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Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromRystadEnergy(2025).

4Fieldsizesarecalculatedbasedonexpectedcumulativeproductionoverthefieldlifetime.Foroil,supergiant=liquidresourcesmorethan5000millionbarrels;giant=liquidresourcesbetween500-5000millionbarrels;large=liquidresourcesbetween100-500millionbarrels;andsmall=liquidresourcesbelow100millionbarrels.

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TheImplicationsofOilandGasFieldDeclineRatesChapter1.Oilandgasproductionandinvestment

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In2024,morethanhalfofoilproductionwasfromfieldsthatarelessthan20yearsoldandone-quarterwasfromfieldsolderthan50years.Outputsharesfrombothofthesecategorieshaverisensignificantlyinrecentyears

(Figure5

).Forthenewerfieldcategory,theincreasereflectstheriseoftightoilandunconventionalNGLs.Forolderfieldsithighlightstheenduringimportanceoflongstandingconventionalfieldswithlowmarginalcoststhathaveseenrecentdevelopmentprogrammestoboostproduction.

Figure5Oilproductionbystartdateandage,2000-2024

FieldstartdateFieldage

100

mb/d

75

50

25

200020052010201520202024

nBefore1970a1970-79a1980-89a1990-99a2000-09a2010-19a2020-24

Sa

Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromRystadEnergy(2025).

100%

75%

50%

25%

200020052010201520202024

20-50years

Morethan50yearsLessthan20years

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Forfieldsinthe20-50yearoldrange,productiondeclinesinrecentyearsreflectthatthemostprolificfieldsweredevelopedinthe1970sorearlier,andthatsubsequentexplorationanddevelopmentsweregenerallysmallerfindsandoftenhadhigherdeclinerates.Forexample,manyofthefieldsdevelopedinthe1980sand1990swereinEuropeandUSoffshoreareaswhichtendtohavehighdeclinerates,thustheircurrentcontributionsarerelativelysmaller.

Trendsinnaturalgasproduction

Naturalgashasbeenthefastestgrowingfossilfueloverthepastdecade.Demandincreasedbymorethan2%eachyearonaveragesince2015toreach4300billioncubicmetres(bcm)in2024

(Figure6

).Therearemanytypesofnaturalgasresources,eachwithdistinctcharacteristicsandproductiontechniques.

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Figure6Naturalgasproductionbytypeandaverageannualchange,2000-2024

Globalproduction

Averageannualchange

bcm

200

150

100

50

0

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

-50

2000200520102015202020242000-052005-102010-152015-192019-24

Conventional:OnshoreOffshore

Unconventional:TightgasShalegasOther

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Notes:Otherincludescoalbedmethaneandcoal-to-gas.

Conventionalnaturalgasisextractedusingwell-establisheddrillingmethodsandaccountsforaround70%ofglobalgasproductiontoday,includingbothonshoreandoffshorereserves.Conventionalonshoregasproductionhasbeenstablesince2000ataround1800bcm.Incontrast,conventionaloffshoregasproductionexpandedsteadily,increasingbyanaverageof30bcmperyearsince2015andtoreachalmost1300bcmin2024,largelyreflectingdevelopmentsintheMiddleEast,includingIranandSaudiArabia,aswellasinAustralia.

Figure7Shareofnaturalgasintotalextractedhydrocarbonsbyfield,2024

Shareofgasinextractedhydrocarbons

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

05001000150020002500300035004000

Naturalgasproduction(bcm)

AssociatedgasNon-associatedgas

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromRystadEnergy(2025).

TheImplicationsofOilandGasFieldDeclineRatesChapter1.Oilandgasproductionandinvestment

Unconventionalgasisnaturalgasproducedfromlowpermeabilityrockformationssuchastightsandstoneandlimestone(tightgas),coalseams(coalbedmethane),shaleplays(shalegas)andcoal-to-gas(CTG).Morethan300bcmoftightgaswasproducedin2024,about70%inNorthAmerica.Coalbedmethane(CBM)productionin2024wasaround85bcm,mainlyproducedinAustralia(50%),UnitedStates(20%)andThePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereinafterChina)(20%).Shalegasproductionincreasedrapidlyfromaround150bcmin2010to940bcmin2024.N