摩根大通-中国：开年表现强劲前路仍存不确定性-China：Strong start to the year,uncertainties ahead-20260301

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

March2026

China:Strongstarttotheyear,uncertaintiesahead

FengZhu

GreaterChinaEconomicResearch+85228001745

feng.zhu@

JPMorganChaseBankN.A.,HongKong

TingtingGe

GreaterChinaEconomicResearch+85228000143

tingting.ge@

JPMorganChaseBankN.A.,HongKong

JiayiLi

GreaterChinaEconomicResearch+85228005229

jiayi.c.li@

JPMorganChaseBankN.A.,HongKong

TongfangYuan

GreaterChinaEconomicResearch

+85228000085

tongfang.yuan@

JPMorganChaseBankN.A.,HongKong

Globalmacrobackdrop

ChinaGDPdeviationfromtrend

Globaloutlookscenarios

UShyperscalercapex

USaveragetariffrate

Globalmacrobackdrop

Growthforecastrevisions

DMpolicyratechange

RealGDPrelativetopre-pandemictrendpath

Inflationforecastrevisions

TwokeyfactorsaffectingtheChineseeconomyin2026

lTarifftensions2.0underTrump2.0:Higher,broader,moredisruptive

lPunitivetariffratesandtit-for-tatresponsefromChina

Tradetensions

(withUS&others)

lAre-escalationofUS-Chinatensions,tariffsremainthekeyuncertainty

lIEEPAtariffruling,Section122/301/232tariffs,etc.

lUS-Chinatruceandpotentialuncertainty,uptofourPresidentialSummitsin2026

lRisingtradebarriersagainstChinafromnon-USmarkets

Policyshiftsand15thFYP

lChina’s15thFYPcontinuestofocusonindigenizingandmodernizingmanufacturing

lButitdropsintegration(totheworld)andefficiencyastheguidingprinciplesofpolicies

lInstead,prioritizessecurityasnewcoreobjective,citingdeglobalizationandgeopoliticalrivalry

lThenewformalizationwillaccelerateindigenization,supplychainrelocation,redirectcapitalflow

lBoostingdomesticdemand/consumption/serviceconsumption

lUnifiednationalmarketandanti-involution

TarifftensionsbetweenChinaandtheUSsince2018

TariffincreaseimpactonChina’sgrowth

China’sshareinglobalmarket

Averageeffectivetariffrate

China’sshareinUSimports

Tariffimpactontrade:LessonsofTariffTensions1.0

Chinaexportsbydestination

Chinaexportshare,byproduct

US-Chinabilateraltradedependence

China’sshareofglobalexports

TariffTensions2.0

PriceadvantageofChinesegoods

MarketshareofChineseimports

Punitivetariffrateisdisruptive

China’sexportprices

Tarifftensions’impactoninvestment

China’srankinginMNCs’globalinvestmentplans

China’sODItoLatAm

ChinaFDIflows

China’sODItoASEAN

China’sresponse

Exportcontroloncriticalminerals

UseofUnreliableEntityList

CNYdepreciationin2018-19

Source:USGS,J.P.Morgan

Tradeuncertainty

Tradesurplusbypartner

TraderemedycasesagainstChina

Traderemedycasesbytype

Rareearthreserves

Energyshock

ChinaLNGimportsfromMiddleEast

Fertilizerimports

Chinaoilimports

ChinaimportsfromMiddleEast

Energyshock

Chinagasolinebalance

Chinacrudeoilbalance

Retailedrefinedoilprice

Energyconsumptionstructure

Exportandadvancedmanufacturing

High-techexports

Made-in-China2025targetedsectors

ICtradecoverageratio

Industrialrobots

Summaryof13th-15thFYP(2016-2030)

Fiscalpolicy

Governmentbondissuancequota(bnyuan)

Debtproblem:Constraintonfiscalpolicy

China’sgovernmentdebt

China’stotalnon-financialdebt

Interestrepaymentburden

Debtbreakdownbysector

Monetarypolicy

PolicyrateandRRR

Creditimpulsebreakdown

China’sattenuationapproachtopolicyrate

Publicvs.privatecreditgrowth

Monetarypolicy

Creditvs.GDPgrowth

Corporateloangrowthbysector

Interestrepaymentanddebtswapimpact

NIMpressureisamajorconstraintforratecut

Growthandinflationoutlook

2026growthmomentumlikelyfront-loaded

Netexports’contributiontomoderate

2026growthtargetlikelystill“around5%”

Deflationwilllinger

Divergenceacrosssectors

High-techmanufacturing

Unevenrecovery

Breakdownofretailsales

BreakdownofIPactivity

Investmentbreakdown

Publicvs.privateinvestment

Over-correctionofvolume-termhousingindicators

Manufacturing,infrastructureandrealestateFAI

Breakdownofprivateinvestmentbysector

Housingamajordragduringeconomictransformation

Commodityhousinginventory

Averagelivingspace

Housingisapillarindustry

Timeinconsistencyineconomictransformation

Anti-involutionefforts

Anti-involutionisrealandhastakenplace

Anti-involutionpolicies

Supply-demandimbalances

Anon-consensusviewtoraiseconsumption

DriversofconsumptioninChina

Weakconsumerconfidence

Householdassets

Savingsrate

Anon-consensusviewtoraiseconsumption

IncomeshareinChina,highhouseholdsavings

Serviceconsumptioncomparison

LowshareofconsumptioninChina

Householdconsumption:Chinavs.US

Anon-consensusviewtoraiseconsumption

Excesscapacityinmanufacturing,under-supplyinservices

China’stieredpensionsystem

Impactoftrade-insubsidies

Consumptionshare:Scenarioanalysis

PPIdeflationtopause

ServiceandcoreCPI

Deflationpressure

PPIvs.global

commodityprices

Producerpricesbysector

Exportsresiliency

Growthbreakdownbyexpenditure

Exportsvolumevs.price

Rareearthexports

High-techexports

BoPandCNY

Currentaccountsurplus

CNYexchangerates

BoPbreakdown

SouthboundStockConnect

BoPandCNY

Theuseofcountercyclicalfactor

Exporters’hedgeratio

CNYexchangerates

FXsettlementvs.CNYFX

China’soverseasfinancialassetsandde-dollarization

Reserveassetbreakdown

Chinaforeignassetbreakdownbysector

China’sgoldreserves

China’sholdingofmajorUSassets

AI+initiative

City-levelAIindustryfunds

PolicymeasurestosupportAIindustry

AIindustryinChina

PrivateinvestmentinAI

AI+initiative

ActiveusersofGenAIapps

AIusecomparison

EmploymentbyAIexposure

NewjobpostingsbyAIexposure

SummaryofChina’seconomicoutlook

Chinamacroindicatorheatmap

Chinaactivityindicatorheatmap

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