版权说明：本文档由用户提供并上传，收益归属内容提供方，若内容存在侵权，请进行举报或认领
文档简介
MorganstanleyRESEARCH
March30,202609:00PMGMT
GreaterChinaSemiconductors|AsiaPacific
OldMemory:lnevitableDerating
KVcachecompression,serversystemoptimization,andLTA
discussionslikelytodrivefurthervaluationpressure.WecutPTsagainforGCmemorynameswithDRAMexposureandreiterateourcontrarianpreferenceforlegacyNANDvs.DDR4.
KeyTakeaways
Turboquantimpactcouldbeoverblown,butbetterthanthepriorLLMweightscompressionfromthirdpartyvendors.
Customeraffordabilityisbecominganissue.NANDsupplyvendorsareofferingsolutionstoreducesystemDRAMcontent.
PrivateplacementandLTAsuggestLTdownsidesupport,butwithrisingquestionsonfurtherpricingupside.
PurelegacyNANDvendors(e.g.Macronix)couldbemuchlessimpacted(earningsevenstronger),inthenextfewquarters.
Evenmoredebate…willsoftwareoptimizationwork?Followingour
oldmemory
downgrade
onMarch20,wehavereceivedmostlysignificant
pushback,
anda
surprising
privateplacementtoNanya.
However,atthesametime,theTurboQuantshock,couldbeoverblown(seereportsfrom
ShawnKim
and
JoeMoore)
.LLM
compressionwasdiscussedinTaiwan:Skymizer(private)showcaseditsweight
compressiontechniquewithPSMCatComputex2025,leadingtofasterinference(Exhibit1toExhibit3).Thatsaid,developmentisslowerasit'snotonaKVcacheanddoesn'thaveitsownLLM,unlikeTurboQuant.
Surgingtokens(enterprise)demand(Exhibit13)vs.highDRAMpricing:AttheCFMSummitinShenzhen,wesawedgeAIpotentiallybecominganewdriverfor
memorydemand(Exhibit12toExhibit15).MultipleFlashvendorsareintroducingsolutionstoreducesystemcontent(Exhibit4toExhibit11).WeseesystemhousesfromboththeUSandChinadiscussingdifferentsolutionstooptimizeDRAMusage.DRAMcostperGBcouldbe50xvs.NANDin2Q.WealsodiscussedtheDDR4
constraintwitheSSD(cachememory).Currentfulfillmentratesstandat~80%,inlinewiththeundersupplyindicatedbyourindustrymodel.WealsometdistributorssellingDRAMmodulesfromcarry-oninventory.
CouldprivateplacementandLTAguaranteepricing?Historically,someLTAswithfixedpricinghavebeenhonoredbycustomers,mainlyinlegacyfoundry,e.g.smallerMCUsupplierscontinuedtohonorCovid-eraLTAseveninto2024.WhetheritwillbethesameforDDR4thistimeremainsuncertain.EvenifDDR4pricingholdsforthenext3years,earningsupsidemayremaincapped.Overtime,memoryplayers
maytransitionintodividendplays.(Continuedbelow)
MoRGANSTANLEyTAiwANLimiTEd+DanielYen,CFA
EquityAnalyst
Daniel.Yen@
+88622730-2863
CharlieChan
EquityAnalyst
Charlie.Chan@
+88622730-1725
MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTEd+DaisyDai,CFA
EquityAnalyst
Daisy.Dai@
+8522848-7310
MoRGANSTANLEyTAiwANLimiTEd+TiffanyYeh
EquityAnalyst
Tiffany.Yeh@
+88627712-3032
MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTEd+EthanJia
ResearchAssociate
Ethan.Jia@
+8523963-2287
MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith
companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley
Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley
Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.
+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson
communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.
IDEA
GREAtERChinATEchnologySEmiconductoRs
AsiaPacific
IndustryViewAttractive
WHAT’sCHANGED
WinbondElectronicsCorp
(2344.TW)FromTo
PriceTargetNT$140.00NT$100.00
PowerchipSemiconductor
ManufacturingCo(6770.TW)FromTo
PriceTargetNT$88.00NT$71.00
GigaDeviceSemiconductor
BeijingInc(603986.SS)FromTo
PriceTargetRmb414.00Rmb301.00
APMemoryTechnologyCorp
(6531.TW)FromTo
PriceTargetNT$700.00NT$607.00
NanyaTechnologyCorp.
(2408.TW)FromTo
PriceTargetNT$298.00NT$278.00
2
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Stayselective–wereducePTsforallDRAM-relatedlegacymemorynames:Our
downwardrevisionsfocusmainlyonvaluationmultiples,asrecentdevelopmentssuggestfurtherde-ratingforlegacymemorystocksislikely.WedonotcurrentlyexpectpricingerosionandthereforemaintainEWonDDR4plays(Exhibit16).lfpricingpressure
emergesinto2027,wecouldturnmorebearish.Conversely,wecouldbecome
constructiveifpricingmomentumextendsinto2027,orifGCmemoryvendorscan
capture16xSRAMdemandfromLPUsin2028,whichcurrentlysitswithlogicfoundries.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
KeySlidesfromSkymizerandCFMSummitinShenzhen
Exhibit1:Skymizer:LPUIPforLLMacceleration
Source:Skymizer,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit3:Skymizer:smallerweightleadstofasterinference
Source:Skymizer,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit2:Skymizer:productmix&roadmap
Source:Skymizer,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit4:Examplesofnear-memory/storageAIchipintegration
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3
4
RESEARCH
Morganstanley
Exhibit5:Longsys:HLCtechnologyreducesDRAMcapacityrequirement
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit7:PhisonxiGPUAIPCsolutionreducesDRAMcapacityrequirement
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
IDEA
Exhibit6:Longsys:HLCtechnologyreducesDRAMcapacityrequirement
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit8:Maxio:architectureinnovationallowssupportoflargecapacitySSDwithverysmallamountofDDR
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5
RESEARCH
Morganstanley
Exhibit9:T-Head:ZNStechnologyreducesDRAMcapacityrequirementforuseofQLCSSD
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit11:TencentCloud:optimizedsolutionstocompressDRAM
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
IDEA
Exhibit10:TencentCloud:competitivenessimprovementistiedtotheabilitytooptimizeDRAMcost
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit12:Intel:cloud+localhybriddeploymentmaybethebestwaytouseOpenclaw
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
6
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Exhibit13:Intel:hybridOpenclawdeploymentwithlocalmodelssupportedby32GBDRAM
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit14:Phison:proliferationofedgeAItobeanewgrowthdriverforNAND,DRAM
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit15:XPeng:asVLAparametersizeexpands,largeDRAMcapacitymaynolongerbeoptional
Source:CFMSummit,MorganStanleyResearch
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
KeyChartsandExhibits
Exhibit16:Orderofpreference:GCmemory
Source:MorganStanleyResearch,FactSet(consensusmean).Note:e=MorganStanleyResearchestimates.
8
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Exhibit17:Tokendemandscontinuetosurge
Monthlytokensprocessed
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
(trillion)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Apr-24Jun-24
Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25Apr-25
Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26
GoogleCloud
Bytedance(VolcanoEngine/Doubao)MicrosoftAzure
Z.ai
(GLM)China(NationalDataAdministration)
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.BytedanceandChinatotalnumbersrepresentmonthlyrun-ratebasedondailynumbers.
Exhibit19:NORflashdemandgrowthandsupplygrowthbydi
Exhibit18:NORflashdemandandsupplygrowthrates
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch
ensty
Exhibit20:DDR4quarterlysupplyanddemandsummary
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
1Q233Q231Q243Q241Q253Q25e1Q26e3Q26e
Supply(mnGb)(LHS)Demand(mnGb)(LHS)
Oversupply/(undersupply)ratio(RHS)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%-20%
-30%
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit21:Quarterlyoversupply/undersupplyratiovs.NanyaandWinbondpricingQ/Qchange
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Exhibit22:Quarterlysupplybreakdown(mnGb)
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
1Q233Q231Q243Q241Q253Q25e1Q26e3Q26e
SamsungHynixMicronCXMTNanyaWinbondPSMCJHICC
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
Exhibit24:MemoryvendorsGM
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
2Q13
1Q14
4Q14
3Q15
2Q16
1Q17
4Q17
3Q18
2Q19
1Q20
4Q20
3Q21
2Q22
1Q23
4Q23
3Q24
2Q25
1Q26
4Q26
3Q27
2Q28
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
SamsungSKhynixMicronNanyaTechWinbond
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates
Exhibit26:DDR48Gb(1Gx8)pricingchart
DDR48Gb-1Gx82666Mbps
27.25
SpotContract
13.00
Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26
US$
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-19
Source:DRAMeXchange,MorganStanleyResearch;dataasofMar13,2026
Exhibit23:Quarterlydemandbreakdownbyproduct(mnGb)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
1Q233Q231Q243Q241Q253Q25e1Q26e3Q26e
SmartphonePCServerTVSwitchCacheDRAMOthers
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
Exhibit25:MemoryvendorsOPM
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
2Q13
1Q14
4Q14
3Q15
2Q16
1Q17
4Q17
3Q18
2Q19
1Q20
4Q20
3Q21
2Q22
1Q23
4Q23
3Q24
2Q25
1Q26
4Q26
3Q27
2Q28
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
SamsungSKhynixMicronNanyaTechWinbond
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch
Exhibit27:DDR516Gb(2Gx8)pricingchart
US$
43.0
38.0
33.0
28.0
23.0
18.0
13.0
8.0
3.0
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Nov-25
Jan-26
Mar-26
39.33
DDR516G(2Gx8)4800/5600
——SpotContract
30.00
Source:DRAMeXchange,MorganStanleyResearch;dataasofMar13,2026
10
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
APMemory:EstimateRevisionsSummary
Wecutour2028EPSestimatesby4%,whilekeeping2026e/27eEPSunchanged:Weslightlycutour2028revenueforecastsmainlyduetoaweakerDDR3market,althoughwestillanticipatestrongIPDrevenue.
Exhibit28:APMemory–Estimaterevisionssummary
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
Exhibit29:APMemory–Quarterlyfinancialsummary
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH11
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IdEA
APMemory:ValuationMethodology
WecutourpricetargettoNT$607fromNT$700toreflectourearningsestimatechanges.
Mostofourresidualincomemodelassumptionsareunchanged,including:1)costof
equityunchangedat9.2%(2.0%risk-freerate,6%riskpremium,1.2beta);2)payoutratioof67%;and3)intermediategrowthrateat11.0%.Welowerourterminalgrowthrateto3.0%from4.0%tobemoreinlinewiththelong-termmacrogrowthrate.OurnewPTimplies2026eP/Eof38x–stillroughly1s.d.abovethehistoricalaveragesince2020.
OurbullandbearcasevalueswerecuttoNT$895(fromNT$1,032)andNT$294(fromNT$339),respectively.
Exhibit30:APMemory:ResidualIncomemodel
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
Exhibit31:APMemory:HistoricalforwardP/E
80
70
60
P/E(x)
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
Jan-25
Jul-25
Jan-26
+1S.D.:39x
Avg.:27x
-1S.D.:16x
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch
12
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Exhibit32:APMemory:Earningsestimaterevisionbreadth
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26APMemoryFY2EPSRevision(3MMA)Sharepriceperf.(YoY,RHS)
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
-100%
-200%
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH13
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
RiskReward–APMemoryTechnologyCorp(6531.TW)
OWonIPDandWoWopportunities
PRICETARGETNT$607.00
Basecase,derivedfromaresidualincomemodel.KeyRImodelassumptionsinclude1)costofequityconstantat9.2%(2.0%risk-freerate,6%riskpremium,1.2beta);2)payoutratioof
67%;3)terminalgrowthrateof3.0%;and4)medium-termgrowthrateof11.0%.
RISKREWARDCHART
NT$895.00(+84.54%)
NT$607.00(+25.15%)
NT$294.00(-39.38%)
0
MAR'25SEP'25MAR'26MAR'27
TWD
800
600
400
200
NT$485.00
Key:HistoricalStockPerformanceCurrentStockPricePriceTarget
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
OVERWEIGHTTHESIS
.IPD(interposersanddiscretes)revenueislikelytorampin2026-27e,andbefurtherdrivenbynewIPDinterposeropportunitiesinto2028.
.Memorybandwidthandpower
consumptionarethenextissuestobe
resolvedinAIcomputing,andwebelieveAPMemory'swafer-onwafer(WoW)packagingtechnologycouldbeaneffectivesolution.
.Thecompanyexpectsmemorybusinesstobestableinthenearterm.
.OverallAIbusinessshouldcontinuetoriseinthemix–apositivereadforthemarginprofile.
.OurPTimplies38x2026eP/E-roughly1s.d.abovetheaveragelevelsince2020.
ConsensusRatingDistribution
100%Overweight0%Equal-weight0%Underweight
MSRating
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
RiskRewardThemes
SecularGrowth:Positive
TechnologyDiffusion:Positive
ViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshere
NT$895.00
BULLCASE
57x2026eEPS
Faster-than-expectedAIandIPDbusiness
progresswithPSRAMgeneratingmorecashflow:Weassume:1)WoWpackaging
revenuetoreach>NT$7bn,andIPDrevenuetoreach<NT$8bnby2028;2)totalrevenuetoriseata50%+CAGR,2025-28;and3)
grossmargintoincreasefrom46.5%in2025to60%+by2028.
NT$607.00
BASECASE
38x2026eEPS
Fast-growingAIandIPDbusiness,with
PSRAMgeneratingstablecashflows:We
expect:1)WoWrevenuetoreachNT$5.5bn,andIPDrevenuetoreachNT$5.9bnby
2028;2)totalrevenuetoriseata43%
CAGR,2025-28;and3)grossmarginto
increasefrom46.5%in2025toover53%in2028.
NT$294.00
BEARCASE
19x2026eEPS
Slower-than-expectedAIandIPDbusinessprogress,withPSRAMfacingintensifying
competition:Weassume:1)WoWpackagingrevenueof~NT$1.5bn,andIPDrevenueof~NT$2bnby2028;2)totalrevenuetoriseatan10-15%CAGR,2025-28;and3)grossmargintoremainat~51%by2028.
14
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
RiskReward–APMemoryTechnologyCorp(6531.TW)
KEYEARNINGSINPUTS
Drivers
2025
2026e
2027e
2028e
1.WifiSales(%)(%)
73.7
62.6
50.2
31.6
2.EthernetSales(%)(%)
7.1
10.1
25.3
32.8
INVESTMENTDRIVERS
·DemandforAIapplications
·Consumertechdemand,especiallyfromtheIoTmarket
GLOBALREVENUEEXPOSURE
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
10-20%
10-20%
30-40%
lndia
Japan
LatinAmericaMEA
NorthAmerica
APAC,exJapan,Mainland
Chinaandlndia
EuropeexUK
MainlandChina
Source:MorganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshere
FYDec2026e
EPS
(NT$)
13.11
15.81
16.60
22.84
Sales/Revenue
(NT$,mn)
7,760
8,100
8,572
Netincome
(NT$,mn)
1,859
2,237
2,570
2,570
ROE
(%)
13.9
16.9
21.0
RISKSTOPT/RATING
RISKSTOUPSIDE
·Stronger-than-expectedconsumerdemand
·Faster-than-expectedIPDrampandWoWpackagingdevelopment
·Mildercompetitionfrompartners(foundry,memoryhouse,GPUvendor)orotherdesignhouses
RISKSTODOWNSIDE
·Weaker-than-expectedconsumerdemand·Slower-than-expectedIPDrampandWoW
packagingdevelopment
·Intensifyingcompetitionfrompartners
(foundry,memoryhouse,GPUvendor)orotherdesignhouses
OWNERSHIPPOSITIONING
Inst.Owners,%Active56.2%Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
MSESTIMATESVS.CONSENSUS
MeanMorganStanleyEstimatesSource:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH15
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
APMemory:FinancialSummary
Exhibit33:Financialsummary
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimates
16
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IdEA
Winbond:ValuationMethodology
WecutourpricetargettoNT$100fromNT$140:WecontinuetouseaP/Bmultiple
methodologytoderiveourpricetarget,inlinewithourapproachforGreaterChina
memoryIDMpeersandinviewoftheindustry'shighearningsvolatility.Ournewprice
targetimpliesa2.7x2026eBVPS,downfromourpriortargetmultipleof3.7x2026e
BVPS,althoughstillmorethan1S.D.higherthanitshistoricalaverageof1.1xsince2017,asweexpectderatingforWinbond'sDDR4/3exposure.
WecutourbullcasePTtoNT$120(3.2xour2026eBVPS)andourbearcasevaluetoNT$41.4(1.1xour2026eBVPS).
Exhibit34:Winbond:HistoricalforwardP/B
3.5x
3.0x
2.5x
2.0x
1.5x
1.0x
0.5x
0.0x
+1SD:1.4x
Average:1.1x
-1SD:0.7x
Jan-26
Jul-25
Jan-25
Jul-24
Jan-24
Jul-23
Jan-23
Jul-22
Jan-22
Jul-21
Jan-21
Jul-20
Jan-20
Jul-19
Jan-19
Jul-18
Jan-18
Jul-17
Jan-17
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates
Exhibit35:Winbond:HistoricalforwardP/BvsROE
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
ForwardPB(LHS)ROE(annualized,RHS)
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH17
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Exhibit36:Winbond:Earningsestimaterevisionbreadth
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26WinbondFY2EPSRevision(3MMA)Sharepriceperf.(YoY,RHS)
1000%
800%
600%
400%
200%
0%
-200%
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates
18
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
RiskReward–WinbondElectronicsCorp(2344.TW)
DDR,NORandSLCNANDpricingupside;long-termopportunitiesinCUBE
PRICETARGETNT$100.00
Basecase,2.7x2026eP/B.ThismethodisinlinewiththeapproachweadoptforGreater
ChinamemoryIDMpeers,inviewoftheindustry'shighvolatility.Webelievethestockmeritsamultiplebeyondthehighendofitshistoricalbandof0.5-1.5xsince2017,asweareseeingDRAMpricingupside(eventhoughpricingpowercouldmoderateinto2H26)anda
sustainableNORpricehike.
NT$156.25
ConsensusPriceTargetDistribution
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
NT$100.00◆NT$200.00
MSPT
MeanMorganStanleyEstimates
RISKREWARDCHART
NT$120.00(+29.03%)
NT$100.00(+7.53%)
NT$41.40(-55.48%)
0
MAR'25SEP'25MAR'26MAR'27
TWD
120
90
60
30
NT$93.00
Key:HistoricalStockPerformanceCurrentStockPricePriceTarget
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
EQUAL-WEIGHTTHESIS
.WeexpectDDR3andDDR4price
increasestocontinueinto2026.However,withstrongDDR4pricinghikeinthepastoneyear,wethinkpricingpowercould
moderateinto2H26givennegativedemandimpact.
.NOR1Qpricinghikeisskewingtowards
30%,withmoreopportunitiesindata
centers.WeexpectanongoingmarketshareshiftinPCNORfromMainlandChinato
Taiwan.
.HighdensitySLCNANDpricingiscatchingupin1Q26.
.Wesharemanagement'sviewthatCUBEcouldbemeaningfulin2026,given
engagementwithmultiplefoundrypartnersandcustomers.
.Weseeseveralheadwindsaheadforthelogicbusiness.
.OurPTimplies2.7x2026eP/B.
ConsensusRatingDistribution
78%Overweight22%Equal-weight
0%UnderweightMSRating
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
RiskRewardThemes
PricingPower:Positive
ViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshere
NT$120.00
BULLCASE
3.2x2026eBVPS
NORFlashpricingandDRAMpricesreboundmoreinthenext12months:NORFlashrisesdramatically.DRAMpricescontinuetorisesignificantlywithinthenext12months,with25nmaccountingfor>80%ofsales.
NT$100.00
BASECASE
2.7x2026eBVPS
Marginexpansionbenefitingfromthe
memoryup-cycle:1)NORFlashpricingrisessignificantlyinthenext12months;and2)DRAMpricesrisemoderatelyinthenext12months.
NT$41.40
BEARCASE
1.1x2026eBVPS
NORFlashpricesfacepressureinthenext12months;DRAMmarketbackto
oversupply,withslowertechnology
migration:1)NORFlashshowsprice
declines;and2)DRAMpricesdropinthenext12months.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH19
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
RiskReward–WinbondElectronicsCorp(2344.TW)
KEYEARNINGSINPUTS
Drivers
NORASP(%)
2025
0
2026e
71
2027e
9
2028e
(9)
DRAMASP(%)
(2)
266
7
(14)
MobileRAMsales(NT$,mn)
5,302
17,793
21,420
20,059
DRAMsales(NT$,mn)
27,808
145,893
181,454
171,141
Flashsales(NT$,mn)
31,106
51,812
56,548
51,737
INVESTMENTDRIVERS
·DRAMpricing
·NORpricing
·Technologymigration
GLOBALREVENUEEXPOSURE
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
0-10%
20-30%
40-50%
EuropeexUKlndia
Japan
MEA
NorthAmericaUK
APAC,exJapan,Mainland
Chinaandlndia
MainlandChina
Source:MorganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshere
MSALPHAMODELS
1/53MonthMOSTHorizon
Source:Refinitiv,FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch;1isthehighestfavoredQuintileand5istheleastfavoredQuintile
RISKSTOPT/RATING
RISKSTOUPSIDE
·NORFlashpricingincrease,drivenbystronger-than-expecteddemand
·Stronger-than-expectedDRAMpricinggivenongoingsupplyshortage
·Faster-than-expectedSLCNANDdevelopment
RISKSTODOWNSIDE
·NORFlashdowncycle,drivenbyweakerdemand
·Lower-than-expectedDRAMpricinggivenongoingoversupply
·Slower-than-expectedSLCNANDdevelopment
OWNERSHIPPOSITIONING
Inst.Owners,%Active53.3%Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
MSESTIMATESVS.CONSENSUS
FYDec2026e
Sales/Revenue
(NT$,mn)
171,645
224,249
207,097
254,811
EBITDA
(NT$,mn)
70,322
106,288
100,465
135,204
Netincome
(NT$,mn)
45,070
74,587
69,358
98,548
EPS
(NT$)
10.02
16.57
15.38
21.90
MeanMorganStanleyEstimatesSource:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
20
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Winbond:FinancialSummary
Exhibit37:Financialsummary
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimates
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH21
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IdEA
GigaDevice:Valuationmethodology
WecutourpricetargettoRmb301:Wecontinuetoderiveourpricetargetfroma
residualincomemodel,whichwebelievebestcapturesthestockıslong-termvalue.Ourkeyassumptionsinclude:costofequityof8.9%(beta1.1,risk-freerate2%,andrisk
premium6%),apayoutratioof40%,amedium-termgrowthrateof16.0%,downfrom
18.5%,andaterminalgrowthrateof3.0%,downfrom4.0%.Wereduceourmedium-termandterminalgrowthratesestimatestoreflectourmorecautiousviewonDDR4.Ournewpricetargetimplies2026eP/Eof37x,roughlyinlinewiththehistoricalaverageof40x
since2016.
WecutourbullcasevaluetoRmb523fromRmb719andourbearcasevaluetoRmb219fromRmb302.
Exhibit38:GigaDevice:ResidualIncomemodel
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimates
Exhibit39:GigaDevice:historicalforwardP/E
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
GigaDevice1-yearForwa
温馨提示
- 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明，都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
- 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等，如果需要附件，请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
- 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸，网页内容里面会有图纸预览，若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
- 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间，仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理，对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑，并不能对任何下载内容负责。
- 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容，请与我们联系，我们立即纠正。
- 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。
最新文档
- 2026广西南宁市兴宁区兴东社区卫生服务中心外聘人员招聘1人备考题库及参考答案详解（基础题）
- 国药集团2026届春季校园招聘备考题库附答案详解（基础题）
- 2026安徽马鞍山首创水务有限责任公司招聘劳务人员2人备考题库含答案详解（能力提升）
- 2026山东济南市第二妇幼保健院招聘卫生高级人才（控制总量）2人备考题库及答案详解（网校专用）
- 2026福建福州市规划设计研究院集团有限公司招聘备考题库及答案详解（基础+提升）
- 2026四川甘孜州泸定县人民医院编外招聘工作人员5人备考题库带答案详解（综合卷）
- 2026吉林四平市事业单位招聘（含专项招聘高校毕业生）25人备考题库（2号）带答案详解（b卷）
- 2026福建福州市名厝设计咨询有限公司招聘25人备考题库带答案详解（轻巧夺冠）
- 2026人民日报文化传媒有限公司贵州分公司招聘2人备考题库及参考答案详解（考试直接用）
- 2026甘肃省第二人民医院高层次人才引进20人备考题库（第一期）及答案详解（真题汇编）
- 《鉴赏散文语言特色》专题复习2026年高考语文一轮复习重难点（全国）
- 鸡异常蛋课件
- DB50∕T 1729-2025 分布式电化学储能电站运维技术规范
- 脑卒中患者的护理风险管理
- 教师资格证考试培训服务合同
- 脑血管病所致精神障碍的护理课件
- 2026年武汉警官职业学院单招职业技能测试题库附答案
- 2025年西藏检察院书记员考试试题及答案
- 医学影像技术毕业论文
- 2025及未来5年红外测温传感器项目投资价值分析报告
- 河南省2026届高三上学期期中联考数学试卷（含答案）
评论
0/150
提交评论