IBV2025汽车行业状况报告-

Stateof

theIndustryAutomotiveExecutive

summaryMarketandtechnologytrends–Macro

trends–Keychallengesandopportunities–Keytechnologiesandtheirimpact–Selectindustrykeyperformance

indicatorsStrategicimperatives–Businessmodelinnovation–Productandserviceinnovation–Efficientandproductiveoperation–Regulatorycompliance–StrategicflexibilityTransformationaltechnologies–Hybrid

cloud

by

design–Secureby

design–Data–Automation–TraditionalandgenerativeAI–AgenticAI–QuantumcomputingCasestudies–Honda–MitsubishiMotorsPhilippinesCorporation–Nobo

Technologies–Scuderia

Ferrari–Smart

Europe–Yanfeng

AutoAdditionalinformation–

Expertcontributors–About

the

IBM

Institute

for

Business

Value–IBM

Institute

for

Business

Value

selected

studies–

Notes

and

sourcesAutomotiveContents2

IBMInstituteforBusinessValue©2025IBM

CorporationTheautomotiveindustryfacesitsmostfundamentalrestructuringindecades.

Global

economicturbulenceandshiftingtradedynamicsareforcingsupplychainoverhaulsandresourcereallocation.Buttherealtransformationcomesfromsoftware-definedvehicles(SDVs),electrification,andAI-poweredservicesthatarerewritingcompetitiverulesentirely.Thestakesaremassive.Overhalfoffuturerevenuewillcomefromtechnology-drivenservicesby2035,nottraditionalmanufacturing.Thisisn'tevolution.It'sacomplete

business

modelrevolution.Successdemandsoperationalreinvention,strategicpartnerships,andleadership

boldenoughtoreimaginetheentireindustryplaybook.Technologyenablestransformation.Bold

leadership

andstrategicalliancesdeliverit.Electricandsoftware-definedvehiclesaren'tjustnewproducts.

They'reentirely

newoperatingmodels.

Coreprocessesthatworkedfordecadesare

beingrewrittencompletely.Digitalservicerevenuemodelsarebeingtestedacrosscustomerandproductlifecyclestocreaterecurringstreams.Clearwinnershaven’temergedyet.Software-drivenproductsrequiredigital-firstorganizationsandecosystems.Culture,suppliernetworks,andproductivitymetrics

mustallbe

completelyreimagined.AutomotiveExecutivesummaryNote:unlessotherwiseindicated,datapointswithin

thisassetreflectresponsesfromautomotivemarkets

surveyrespondents.3IBM

Institute

for

Business

Value©2025IBM

CorporationAutomotiveMarket

&technologytrends4

IBMInstituteforBusinessValueConsumerexpectations375%of

industry

executives

saysoftware-definedexperienceswillbe

the

core

of

brand

value

in2035.Consumerswillexpectexceptional

experiences:personalizedsettings,

immersiveentertainment,andpredictivediagnostics.65%ofautomotiveexecutivessaycustomers

willexpectautonomousdrivingfeaturesby20354©2025IBM

CorporationEconomicfactors5Geopoliticaltensionsarereshapingglobal

trade,forcing

OEMs

to

rethinkproductionstrategiesentirely.Shareholder

pressure

is

driving

SDV

and

electrificationinitiatives,whileemergingplayersdisruptwithcompetitivepricingmodels.In2025,supply

chain

leaders

citeglobaltradetensionsastheir2nd

biggest

challenge6Technologyadvancements1Software-definedvehicleswillrevolutionizedriverandpassenger

experiences.Automakers

are

nearly

tripling

R&Dinvestmentsinsoftware-definedproducts,jumping

from21%today

to

58%by

2035.74%ofautomotiveexecutivessayvehicles

willbesoftware-definedandAI-powered

by20352Sustainability7By2035,82%of

new

cars

areprojectedtobeelectrified.Currentpolicies

fall

short

of2050net-zerogoals.Despitepoliticalheadwinds,sustainabilityremainsalong-term

priorityforgovernmentsandautomakersalike.82%of

new

cars

are

expected

tobe

electrified

in

some

way(full

EVs

orhybrid)by

20358Macro

trends

Converging

forces

pressure

automotive

tomove

faster.5

IBMInstituteforBusinessValueTradetensionsexposeautomotiveindustry’svulnerability.Theautoindustryfacesanunprecedentedtariffstorm.TradetensionsandgeopoliticalshiftsareforcingOEMstocompletelyrethinkglobaloperations.Whilethesectorhassurvivedsimilarchallengesbefore,today'sdisruptioncomeswithapowerfuladvantage:AI.AI-poweredforesightletsautomakerssimulatetradescenarios,quantifycostimpacts,andidentifyalternativesupplyroutesbeforedisruptionhits.Thispredictivecapabilityenablesfasterresponsesandbuildsoperationalresilience.Agilitynowseparateswinnersfromcasualties.Sourcingadjustments,logisticsoptimization,

andintelligenttoolshavebecomethefoundationofcompetitiveadvantage.©2025IBM

CorporationMacrotrends6

IBMInstituteforBusinessValueAbsorbingtariff

costsCompaniesarecounteringtariffsbyadjustingmargins,raisingprices,restructuringsupply

networks,and

leveraging

free

trade

zones

strategically.Advancedanalyticsandscenariomodelinghelpautomakersevaluatetariff

outcomesacross

regions

and

identify

optimal

cost

strategies.Globalsupply

chainvisibilityAutomotivesupplychainsspanthousandsofcomponentsacrossmulti-tiervendornetworks.Visibilitybecomescriticalforidentifyingbottlenecksandmitigatingexposure.AI

enhances

supply

chain

transparency,optimizes

logistics

flows,monitors

emergingrisks,and

simulates

disruption

scenarios

effectively.MacrotrendsTariffsonimportedautopartsandvehiclesaredrivingup

manufacturing

costsandexposingsupply

chainvulnerabilities.Suppliers,especiallysmallerplayers,arefeelingthestrongestimpact.Production

and

capacityadjustmentsAutomakersarerethinkingproductionplans,redistributingcapacityacrossplants,and

adjustingproductmixestonavigatetariffseffectively.AI-poweredanalyticsenablesmarter,data-drivendecisionsthatbalancecostmanagement

with

market

responsiveness.Realigningmanufacturinglocationsrequiresstrategicplanning,substantialcapitalinvestment,andcomprehensiveworkforcedevelopment.Governmentincentivescanhelp

offset

costs.New

facilitiescreateopportunitiestodeployadvancedtechnologiesandestablishdata-

drivenmanufacturingoperations

fromthe

groundup.Automakersreshapestrategiesandsupplychainsfortraderesilience.©2025IBM

CorporationRealignment

ofmanufacturing

locations7

IBMInstituteforBusinessValueAutomotivereinvents

itsbusinessmodel.A

bumpy

roadtoelectrification3Vehicleelectrificationmomentumhasslowedinsomeregionsduetopolitical

headwinds,butprogresscontinuesthroughhybridapproaches.Electrificationrequirescross-industrycollaborationtoexpandcharginginfrastructure,generatecleanerenergy,

andintegratewithgrids.Italsoopensopportunitiestorealign

suppliernetworksandredefinecore

competencies.2041Completephase-outofInternalCombustion

Engines(ICE),according

toexecutiveforecast4©2025IBM

CorporationKeychallengesandopportunitiesSoftware-definedvehicles1ModernvehiclesareevolvingintoSDVs,

embeddingsoftwareandAIintocorefunctionsandoperations.Thisshiftdemandsmovingfromlegacy

E/E

architectures

to

centralized,high-performancecomputingwith

software-firstdevelopmentapproaches.SDVs

unlock

new

opportunities

todeliverAI-poweredtechnologiesfaster,

withsignificantlyreducedleadtimesfor

users.48%of

automotive

OEMs

and

suppliers

citetechnicaldifficultiesseparatingsoftware

and

hardware

layers

as

a

keySDVchallenge2New

revenuesources9Theindustryisbettingon

recurringdigitalservicerevenueswhileexploring

alternativeownershipmodelslikevehiclesubscriptions.Theseshiftscreatenewcustomertouchpointsforautomotivebrandsbut

requirerobustdataandtechnologyinfrastructurefoundations.Thebiggesthurdle

involvesdesigningviable

business

models,as

clearsuccesspatternsremainelusiveacross

the

sector.$269autonomous

driving$170immersive

in-carentertainmentExpected

monthly

fees

paid

bycustomer(2035)10Manufacturingtransformation5,6,7Automotivemanufacturingrepresentsa

highlycomplexsystemrefinedoverdecadestoensureconsistentquality

and

safety

standards.Introducingnewtechnologiesintoestablishedprocessesoftencreatessignificantperceivedoperationalriskfor

manufacturers.AIandadvancedtechnologiescreatepossibilitiestobuilddata-driven,highly

automated,next-generationfacilities.62%ofautomotiveexecutivesexpectgenerativeAItoimproveproduction

qualityandoptimization88

IBMInstituteforBusinessValueData,automation,

andAIAutomotiveorganizationsbuilddataadvantagesthroughcorecompetencies

suchasproductdevelopment,manufacturing,andsupplychain

management.AsproductsshifttoSDVs,

EV/HEVs,anddigital

services,new

data

challengesemergerequiringspecializeddatasets.Organizations

are

collecting

new

data(for

example,training

data

forautonomousdrivingandfactoryautomation)toacceleratemeaningful

AIadoption.72%of

automotive

CEOs

say

proprietarydata

is

key

to

unlocking

the

value

of

generativeAI2©2025IBM

CorporationHybridcloud

by

design“Hybrid

cloud

by

design”provides

thefoundationforcomprehensivedigital

transformationacrossautomotiveoperations.Itbreaksdownsilos,enablesreal-time

dataflow,simplifiesIT/OTcomplexities,andacceleratessoftware-

led

innovation.Inmanufacturing,hybridcloudsupports

AI,IoT,and

edge

computingtoenhanceproductionoutcomes.71%ofITprofessionalsagreethatwithout

ahybridcloudstrategy,it’sdifficultto

realizethefullpotentialofadigitaltransformation3QuantumQuantumcomputingsolvescomplex

problemsbeyondclassicalcomputing

systemsandtraditionalprocessinglimitations.Automakersexplorequantumpotential

in

materials

discovery,vehiclesimulations,andsupplychainoptimization.Itoffersbreakthroughsin

batterychemistryandautonomousdrivingbyprocessingmassivedatasetsefficiently.82%ofautomotiveexecutivesexpectquantum+AI

to

see

technologicalbreakthroughs

by20304Secure

bydesignA

secure-by-design

approach

embeds

securitythroughoutproductdevelopment,IT

systems,andenterpriseoperationsfrominception.Inautomotivemanufacturing,IT/OT

securityintegrationhelpsensureoperationalcontinuityandproduction

stability.Connected

car

and

edge

security

must

meetregulatorystandardstoenablevehiclesafetyandfortifyconsumer

trust.Only

32%oforganizationsareimplementing,operating,andoptimizingsecurityby

design1Strategictechnologyadoptionfuelstransformation.Key

technologiesandtheirimpact9

IBMInstituteforBusinessValueDigitalsales

metricsAutomotivebrandsareexpandingdigital

channels

such

as

virtualshowrooms,onlineconfigurators,andfan

apps

to

accelerate

sales

growth.Digitalplatformsnowgenerateagrowing

share

of

total

revenue,highlightingtheircriticalimportancefor

competitivepositioning.Median30%Digital

commerce

revenue

as

apercentage

of

overall

revenueDigital

productengineering

metricsModernvehiclesintegrateadvanceddigitalsystemsincludinginfotainment,

ADAS,and

companion

mobileapplicationsforenhanceduser

experience.Unlikephysicalproducts,digitalfeaturesdeployfasterthroughover-the-airupdates,dramatically

streamliningtime-to-marketcycles.Median10weeksAverage

cycle

time

in

weeks

for

newdigitalproductfeatures,fromideation

to

launchSelectindustry

keyperformanceindicatorsSupplychain

metricsAutomotivesupplychainsinvolve

thousandsofcomponentsacross

multipletiers,creatingsignificant

complexityformanufacturers.Reducingcostsasashareofrevenuestrengthensmargins,enhancesoperationalresilience,andsupports

just-in-timemanufacturing.Median13%Total

annual

supply

chain

cost

as

a

percentage

of

revenueSelectedkeymetricstrackautomotivetransformationprogress.10IBM

Institute

for

Business

Value©2025IBM

Corporation本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:863553下载,文档Id:985001,下载日期:2026-02-22AutomotiveStrategicimperatives11IBM

Institute

for

Business

ValueAutomotivebrandvaluewillshiftfromproductstoexperiences,andbusinessmodelsshouldadjust.Emerging

players

are

reshaping

markets

with

disruptive

propositions:low-cost

EVs,featuresubscriptions,andelectricgridintegration.Insomeinstances,vehiclehardware

anddigitalfeaturesaredecoupled:traditionalautomakerssupplywhite-labelcarswhile

digitalprovidersowncustomerinteractions.Legacy

brands

are

redefining

value

around

user

experience,with

SDV

transformation

at

thecore.Thistransitioniscomplexandtakestime,requiringfundamentalorganizationalchange.Organizationsarepivotingfromproduct-centrictodata-driven,service-ledapproaches.

TraditionalITsystems,siloedoperations,andlowdigitalmaturitycreatebarriers.Industryleadersestimatethistransformationcouldtakeadecadetocomplete.©2025IBM

CorporationWhatto

knowBusiness

modelinnovation74%of

industry

executives

say

theirmechanical-drivencultureisverystrong

and

difficult

to

switch,a

key

challengein

SDV

transformation112IBM

Institute

for

Business

ValueBusinessmodelinnovationrequiresorganization-widecommitment.ContinueSDVtransformationDigitalarchitectureandplatformscandeliverseamlessmobilityexperiences.–Invest

in

robust

OTA

infrastructure

immediately,

insyncwithSDV

development.Scalable

OTA

systems

will

create

direct

paths

to

vehicles

and

users.StrengthenaftersalescapabilitiesMost

recurring

digital

revenue

happens

after

the

car

leaves

the

lot.–Make

value

transparent.

Fleet

customers

need

clear

ROI.Individual

drivers

needsolutions

to

actual

pain

points.Think

vehicle

lifetime

value(VLV).–

DeployAItoexpand

revenue

pools.

Bundleservicesforpersonalizedofferingsandmanage

sales

funnels

with

agentic

AI

and

automation.–

DelegatetaskstoAIandautomateoperations

wherever

possible.

Physical

partsandlabor

logistics

can

be

heavily

supported

by

AI

and

automation.–

Empowerdealers

by

includingthem

inthedataecosystem.Share

relevantvehiclediagnostics

so

they

deliver

reliable

service

and

create

seamless

brand

experiences.

Ensureindependentprovidersgetappropriateaccesstoo.©2025IBM

CorporationWhat

to

doBusiness

modelinnovationAutoexecutivessaymonetizationpotentialexistsinthefollowingareasby2028:177%

Voice/virtual

assistants70%

Vehicle

subscription69%Fleet

managementKeyconsideration:Autocompaniesmustdefinetheircompetitiveadvantageacrossthedigitalmobility

valuechain,determiningwherethey'll

leadversuswherethey'llpartnerinvehiclehardware,userexperience

platforms,applications,and

data.Toward2028,auto

executives

expect

to

use

AI

to

increase

the

perceivedvalueofproducts

by22%

and

the

perceived

value

ofdigital

services

by

37%213IBM

Institute

for

Business

ValueSDVsunlockcustomerexperience-drivenvalueopportunities.Automotive

OEMs

are

pouring

resources

into

SDVs

and

electrification

for

productinnovation.The

vehicle

itself

remains

critical

as

passenger

cars

still

command$20K

to$100K

selling

prices.Software

value

share

in

a

vehicle

cost

will

grow

from

today's16%to

24%by

2035.1Vehiclesserveastheinstalledbasefordeliveringservicesthroughouttheproductlifecycle.Cars

often

operate

for

more

than10years

across

multiple

owners.Connectedfeatures

become

essential

for

delivering

ongoing

services

to

vehicles

and

users.Carmakers

must

invest

in

developing

service

businesses

throughout

the

ownership

cycle.

Promisingdomainsincludefleetmanagement,vehiclesubscriptions,andAIassistants.However,unless

there's

clear

ROI

for

users,superior

experience

isn't

enough.Service

experiencesmustbecompellingandindispensable,workingseamlesslywithotherdevices

users

rely

on

daily.©2025IBM

CorporationWhatto

knowProduct

and

serviceinnovation47%ofautoindustryexecutivesestimatethat

SDV

program

spend

will

increase

by47%by2035,and74%of

vehicle

program

cost

will

be

SDVrelated279%ofautomakerexecutivesexpectprogress

on

SDV

innovation

in

thenext

three

years,with

AI

seen

asasignificantcontributingfactortothisprogress314IBM

Institute

for

Business

ValueTostaycompetitive,automakersmustinnovatein

keyareasofproductandservicedevelopment.CustomerexperienceModernbuyersexpecthyper-personalized,connectedexperiences.–Use

AI

for

real-time

personalization

in

infotainment,

navigation,and

driver

assistancesystems.–Leverage

telematics

for

predictive

service

alerts

and

tailored

in-car

experiences.–Integrate

voice

assistants

and

adaptive

smart

features

seamlessly.

Software

innovationSoftwareplaysacentralroleindeliveringexceptionalcustomerexperiences.–Build

modular,cloud

architectures

for

OTA

updates

and

rapid

new

featuredeployment.–Use

generative

AI

to

automate

coding,diagnostics,and

comprehensive

testingprocesses.–Shift

from

distributed

ECUs

to

centralized

computing

for

scalable

SDV

platforms.

Hardware

innovationElectrificationandautonomydemandfundamentallynewdesignapproaches.–Developzonalarchitecturestosimplifywiringandstandardizecomponents.–Co-design

hardware

and

software

for

adaptability

across

multiple

vehicle

models.–Invest

in

edge

AI

chips

and

sensor

fusion

for

real-time

decision-making.©2025IBM

CorporationWhat

to

doProduct

and

serviceinnovationBy2035,executives

expect

to

spend61%moreonEVsthannow,

andtocut

ICE

allocationsin

half1TopchallengesforAI-driven

innovation21.

AI

talent&skills

shortage2.

Integrating

complex

data

for

AI

training3.Legacy

IT

infrastructureThe

bottom

line:Connectedexperiencesarereshapingautomotive,

withAIcentraltoredefiningthecomplete

driver

and

passenger

journey,

frominitialdesignthroughlifetimeengagement.15IBM

Institute

for

Business

ValueRisingproductivitydemandsdriveoperationalchange.Automotive

organizations

expect30%of

their

workforce

to

be

AI-enabled

by

2026,upfrom

just8%in2024.1

70%say

agentic

AI

is

critical

to

their

organization's

future.2Expectationsfororganizationalproductivitygainsareexceptionallyhigh.Productivitydoesn'tcomeonlyfromindividualperformanceimprovements.Legacyprocessesbuiltaroundmechanicalengineeringmustbecompletely

revisited.OEMs

needagile,digital-first

operations

for

faster

innovation,integrated

supply

chains,and

OTAservice

delivery.Strategic

alliances

provide

access

to

new

technologies,accelerate

digitalcapabilities,and

share

risks

in

high-investment

areas.Fragmented

IT

systems

and

siloed

teams

create

significant

barriers

to

progress.Unlockingvaluerequiresupskillingtalent,breakingdownorganizationalsilos,andembeddingsoftware,data,andconnectivityacrosstheentirevehiclelifecycle,enablingsmarter,more

adaptive

products

and

services.©2025IBM

CorporationWhatto

knowEfficientandproductiveoperations50%of

automotive

COOs

say

the

potentialproductivitygainsfromautomationand

AI

are

so

great

that

significant

risk

must

beacceptedtostaycompetitive357%of

automotive

COOs

say

cutting-edgetechnologieshavebeenimplemented

toimproveoperations416IBM

Institute

for

Business

ValueAIandautomationdeliveroperationalefficiencygains.ProductdevelopmentAccelerateinnovationandreducetime-to-marketwithAI-powered,software-driven

approaches

across

design

and

engineering.–Use

AI

simulations

and

virtual

prototypes

to

shorten

validation

and

cut

testing

costs.–Applygenerativedesignanddigitaltwinstooptimizeperformanceandsustainability.–Embed

SDV

architecture

early

to

enable

updates

and

OTA

enhancements.Manufacturingandsupply

chainTransformfactoryoperationsandsupplynetworkstoimproveresilience,quality,andresponsiveness.–Use

predictive

analytics

and

AI

for

scheduling,downtime

reduction,and

throughput.–Automate

quality

checks,maintenance,and

logistics

using

computer

vision,IoT,androbotic

process

automation(RPA).–Integratesupplychainplatformsforreal-timetracking,demand-supplysync,andrisk

mitigation.Marketing,sales,and

after-salesDrive

loyalty,conversion,and

lifecycle

value

through

personalized,data-drivenengagement.–Use

customer

intelligence

and

AI

segmentation

to

tailor

campaigns

and

buyerjourneys.–Apply

real-time

data

to

optimize

pricing,offers,and

conversion

rates.–Redesign

after-sales

strategies

to

sustain

profitability,leveraging

EVs'

50%

lowermaintenance

costs.2©2025IBM

CorporationWhat

to

doEfficientandproductiveoperationsAI-poweredsupplychainandlogistics

optimizationisprojectedtodelivera36%

ROI

by2027,yet

only

24%oforganizationsreporthigh

maturity,

signalinguntappedpotentialforearly

adopters1The

bottom

line:

Despite

major

digitalinvestments,mostautomakershaven't

capturedfullefficiencygains.Legacy

systems,fragmented

supplychains,and

silos

impede

progress,

butAI,automation,andhybridcloudincreaseuptime,acceleratedevelopment,andimproveexperiences,buildingthefoundationfor

service-drivenmodels.17IBM

Institute

for

Business

ValueTechnologytransformsregulatorycompliancemanagement.Theautomotiveindustryoperatesunderstrictregulationbecausevehiclesdirectlyimpactsafety,environment,andconsumerrights.Unlikemanyindustries,automotivenon-complianceoftenstemsfromproductdesignorengineeringflaws.Atechnicaldefect

cancauseinjuryordeath.Regulatorsdemandrigorouscompliancedemonstration.Industrychallengesincluderapidtechnologyevolution,fragmentedregulationsacross

markets,supplychaincomplexity,escalatingsoftwareandcybersecurityrisks,plusintense

cost

and

time

pressures.Technologycandramaticallystrengthenregulatorycompliancebyimprovingtraceability,

automation,andverificationacrossdesign,production,andsupplychainsthroughoutthe

vehiclelifecycle.©2025IBM

CorporationWhatto

knowRegulatorycompliance66%of

automotive

CEOs

say

inconsistentstandardsandregulationsareinhibiting

theirabilitytogrowtheirbusiness10nly

25%of

automotive

organizations

say

theyarewellpreparedforregulatorychanges

and

compliance

issues218IBM

Institute

for

Business

ValueRegulatory

readiness

calls

for

a

proactive,cross-functionalapproach.SafetyAsvehiclesbecomemoreautonomousandsoftware-driven,safetycompliance

requirementsintensifyacrossallsystems.–Align

with

global

Functional

Safety

and

cybersecurity

standards(ISO26262,ISO/SAE

21434).–Integratesafetyvalidationandscenario-basedtestingintodevelopmentproc