bcg -从试点到规模化：物流行业AI落地的关键拐点 AI Is Already Moving the Logistics Industry Forward

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TRANSPORTATIONANDLOGISTICS

AIIsAlreadyMovingtheLogisticsIndustry

Forward

By

MarkusWeidmann

,

JohannesDistler

,JamesReynolds,

DennisMikulla

,DenisvandeVoorde,

DustinBurke

,JesusMonteroGomez-Serranillos,andDorotaKorenkiewicz

ARTICLEMARCH27,202612MINREAD

TheauthorswouldliketothankCarloAlbertoCastelli,GauravKumar,andtheAlpegateamfortheirsupportincreatingthesurveyandanalyzingtheresults.

Artificialintelligence

(AI)hasbecomeatopagendaitemin

logistics

,withapplicationsranging

fromoptimizationalgorithmsfortransportplanningtopredictiveanalyticsfordemand

forecastingandemerging

generativeAI

toolssupportingoperationsandcustomerinteractions.ButthegrowingimportanceofAIisnotvisibleonlyinsideoperations:marketreactions,including

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sharepricemovements,suggestthatcapitalmarketsincreasinglyviewAIprogressasasignaloffuturecompetitiveness.Forlogisticsserviceproviders(LSPs),thisraisesthestakes.

DemonstratingcredibleAIprogressisbecomingimportantnotonlytounlockoperationalvalue,butalsotomaintainmarketconfidenceandavoidbeingperceivedasfallingbehind.Isthe

industryready?

Toanswerthatquestion,wesurveyedleadersatawiderangeofLSPsandtheirshipping

customers.ConductedincollaborationwithAlpega—aleadingproviderofend-to-endlogistics

services—thesurveyaddscriticaldetailtoour

previousreport

ontrendsinthelogisticsindustry.(See“SurveyDemographics.”)

SurveyDemographics

InJanuary2026,BCGandAlpegaconductedanin-depthsurveyofabroad

spectrumofmorethan180expertsatbothLSPsandshippersacrossEurope,

NorthAmerica,Asia,andtheMiddleEast.Thegoal:toinvestigatetheirattitudes

towardthevalueanduseofAIintheirbusinessesandtheirprogressin

implementingit.

RespondentsatLSPsincluded84expertsrangingfrom3PLstotrucking,ocean,

andaircarriersoperatingatnational,regional,andglobalscales,withabroad

selectionofsmall(lessthan$10millioninrevenues),medium-size($10million

to$100million),andlarge(morethan$100million)companiesrepresented.

Respondentsamongshippersincluded98leadersofbothsmallerplayerswith

limitedlogisticsspendingandlargemultinationalsthatmanagecomplex,

multimodallogistics.Thesampleconsistedofahealthymixofcompaniesacross

sectorsusingocean,air,andoverlandfreight,yieldingawell-roundedviewof

shippingrealitiesacrossbothmodesandregions.

Respondentstothe2025surveyagreedonAI’stransformativepotentialbutindicatedlittle

actualadoptionofthe

technology

.Thisyear’sparticipantswereconsiderablymoreconvincedofitsvalueandareshowingfirstsignsofadoption,althoughprogressremainsbehindwhatislikelyrequiredforimpactatscale.Thesurveyhighlightsacleardistinctionbetweenwhatshippers

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expectfromAIandwhereLSPscapturethemostvalue.Asnapshotofourlatestresearchhighlightssixkeylessons:

Over40%ofshippersnowexpectLSPstoofferAI-enabledlogistics,butmostdonotyetviewthelackofAIcapabilitiesasadealbreaker.

LSPsandshippersagreeonthreeareaswhereAImattersmost—transportplanning,forecasting,andvisibility—butconsistent,scaledimplementationremainsaworkinprogress.

OnlyaboutoneintenLSPsreportmeasurablefinancialimpactfromAI;mostLSPsandshippersarestillinexplorationorplanningmode.

AI’sprimaryvalue—particularlyforLSPs—liesinproductivitygains,withnearly80%ofshippersandLSPscitingcostreductionandefficiencyasthemaindriversofadoption.

UnclearROIandinternalcapabilitygapsaretheprimarybarrierstoAIadoption,notcostortechnicalcomplexity.

ThemajorityofLSPsarefocusingAIinvestmentonimplementation,whileworkforceimplicationssignalsignificantreskillingahead,withabouthalfanticipatingworkforcetransformation.

AdetailedanalysisofthesurveyresultsmakesclearwhereLSPsandtheircustomersaremakinggainsintheirAIeffortsandwheretheyaremeetingresistance.

ShippersWantAI-enabledLogistics

Morethan40%ofshipperssaytheynowtakeLSPs’AIcapabilitiesintoaccountwhenselectingtheirlogisticspartners.Thatnumbermightseemmodest,butitrepresentsrealmomentum.Still,itisnotyetamust-have—fewerthan10%ofshippersviewAIasmandatoryintheirlogistics

partnerships.(SeeExhibit1.)

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Shippers’expectationsalsovarydependingonthenatureoftheirbusiness.Freightforwarders

say37%oftheirapparelandfashioncustomersexpectAI-poweredsolutions,thehighestofall

industryverticals,followedbyindustrialandpharmaceuticalsegments,at26%each.Carriers

reportmoregenericAIdemand,with36%seeingnoindustry-specificdifferences—likelyreflectingtheirmorecommoditizedserviceofferings.

ThisgapbetweenshowinginterestinAIandrequiringitdefinesthecurrentmarket.AIis

becomingtablestakes,butithasn’treachedcriticalmass.Shippersarewatching,asking

questions,andincreasinglyexpectingLSPstohavecredibleanswersabouttheirAIcapabilities.

ThegoodnewsisthatshippersandLSPsagreeonwhereAImattersmost.Transportplanningandexecution(suchasAI-driventransportplanningandrouteoptimization);predictivedemandandcapacityforecasting;andend-to-endshipmentvisibility(suchaspredictiveETAsandexception

management)consistentlyrankastopprioritiesforbothgroups.Thisconvergenceonpriorityusecasesisstriking.InanindustrywhereLSPsandshippersoftenhavemisalignedincentives,this

levelofagreementonAIprioritiessuggeststhemarketismaturing.Wheretheydifferisequallyimportant:customsandcompliancemattersconsiderablyamongshippers,forexample,butisnotyetatop-fiveconcernforLSPs—aclearopportunityforLSPstoattractfurtherinterestandmatchexpectationsfromtheirshippingcustomers.

TheconsiderabledegreeofconvergenceonprioritiesmeansLSPsdon’tneedtoguessabout

wheretoinvest.Theusecasesandtheopportunitiesareclear.Whatremainsunclearishowtomovefrompromisingpilotstoconsistent,scaleddelivery—particularlyascapturingfullvaluewillrequireintegratingtheseusecasesintobroaderoperatingmodels,systems,andworkflows,ratherthantreatingthemasstandaloneinitiatives.Inmanycases,thiswillalsorequire

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fundamentallyredesigningprocessestoreflecttheroleAIplays—whetheraugmentinghumandecisionmakingorincreasinglyautomatingend-to-endworkflows.

AIAdoptionIsLow,ButVariesBasedonSeveralFactors

Despiteshippers’growingexpectationsthattheirLSPpartnersofferAIcapabilities,AIadoption

amongLSPsstilllagssignificantly.(SeeExhibit2.)About40%reportdeployingAIbeyondpilots,yetonlyoneintenhaveembeddedAIintocoreoperationsatscale.Only13%reportmeasurablevalue—suchasimprovementsinunitcosts,servicelevels,ormargins—fromembeddingAIinto

dailyoperations.Inmanycases,thevaluemeasuredstemsfromtargetedusecasesratherthan

enterprise-widetransformation.Scaled,end-to-endadoptionremainsrareacrosstheindustry.

Clearly,LSPs—andespeciallythosewhoseAIeffortsarestillnascent—mustmovefastertomeetshippers’growingdemandforAIiftheyaretoremaincompetitive.

Adoptionamongshippersthemselveshasbeenevenslower.Almost70%arestillexploringor

pilotingAI,butjust7%canpointtomeasurableimprovementsintheirsupplychainactivities,andonly1%haveembeddedAIaspartoftheircorelogisticsprocesses—potentiallyreflectingthat

manyshippersareprioritizingAIinvestmentsinotherareas,suchascommercialfunctionsorcustomer-facingapplications.

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Geographyrevealsimportantdifferencesinadoptionrates.LSPsintheAsia-PacificregionleadinAImaturity,with31%reportingsuccessinembeddingAIacrosscoreoperations,comparedto14%ofNorthAmericancompaniesandjust6%ofthoseinEurope.DifferencesamongLSPsalso

dependonboththeirsizeandbusinessmodel.Largefreightforwardersandthird-partylogisticsprovidersaresignificantlyaheadofsmallandmid-sizedcompanies.

CostandEfficiencyDriveEverything

Nearly80%ofbothshippersandLSPscitecostreductionandoperationalefficiencyasprimarytriggersforAIadoption.Atthesametime,broaderfactorssuchascorporatedigitalstrategy,

particularlyamongshippers,andcompetitivepressurearealsoemergingasimportantdrivers.(SeeExhibit3.)Thisfocusshapeswhichusecasesaregainingtractionandwhichremain

theoretical.

Operations-orientedapplicationsdominatethedesireforAI.Transportplanningandexecution—includingpredictiveanalyticsandoptimizationmodelsfornetworkdesignandbackhaul

minimization—leadsat64%adoptionamongLSPs,withmuchofthevaluedrivenbyautomatingdecisionsandintegratinglarger,morecomplex

data

sets.Thisisfollowedbytrackingandvisibilityatroughly50%,includingusecasessuchasvisual-andvideo-enableddata,defectdetection,

deliverylocationmatching,andothers.

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Shippersmirrorthesepriorities,withalmost60%focusingonvisibilityandtracking,andabout

halfontransportplanningandexecution.ThisconfirmsthatAIisprimarilyseen—andvalued—asaproductivitylever,particularlyinareassuchasplanningandexecution,whilealsoenablingservicedifferentiationincustomer-facingcapabilitiessuchasvisibility.Thefocusremains

squarelyonmakingcurrentoperationsfasterandcheaper.

Thisalignmentmayalsomaskadeeperdynamic.Whileshippershighlightusecasessuchas

visibilityandforecasting,theyultimatelybenefitmostfrommoreefficientLSPoperationsthroughlowerratesandimprovedcost-to-serve.Inthatsense,productivitygains—whilerealized

indirectly—mayrepresentthemostimportantsourceofAI-drivenvalueforshippers.

Beyondoperations,forLSPs,AIisalsogainingtractionincustomer-facingandcommercial

functionssuchaspricing,quoting,andcustomerserviceinteractions,withnearlyhalfofLSPs

indicatingplanstodeployAIintheseareas.Usecasesincludeoptimizingpricingdecisionsbasedonreal-timemarketdataandhistoricalbehavior,forecastingdemandelasticityandconversion

probabilities,andsupportingmoredynamic,data-drivenquoting.Atthesametime,AIisenablingfasterandmoreconvenientcustomerinteractions—suchasrespondingtoinquiries,managing

complaints,andprovidingproactiveshipmentupdatesthroughchatbotsandautomated

notifications.Emergingsolutions—includingAI-poweredquotegenerationtools—areenablingLSPstoautomatepartsofthequote-to-orderprocessandimprovebothwinratesand

profitability.

Atthesametime,BCGexperienceshowsthatsomeofthelargestproductivityopportunitiesliebeyondcustomer-facingapplications.Reducingadministrativeandback-officeworkloads—suchasbookingprocessing,documentationhandling,andinternalcoordination—cansignificantly

improvetheproductivityofwhite-collaroperationsinbranchesandservicecenters.Theseoperationalusecasesareoftenlessvisiblebutcandeliversubstantialimpactatscale.

TheRealBarriersAreROIClarityandInternalCapabilities

AcrucialfindingchallengestheconventionalassumptionthattheprimaryobstaclestoAIscalingaretechnologicallimitationsandcost.Instead,roughly40%ofsurveyrespondents—bothLSPs

andshippers—citedunclearreturnoninvestmentandinternalcapabilitygapsasthetop

barriers.Costrankedonlyasalowerconcern,especiallyamonglargerplayers.(SeeExhibit4.)

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Thisrepresentsafundamentalshift.Threeyearsago,discussionsaboutAIcenteredonwhetherthetechnologywasreadyandaffordable.Today,thetechnologyisfareasiertoaccessanduse,andadoptioncostshavedropped.Thequestionisnowwhetherorganizationscanexecute

effectively.

Regionalpatternsrevealdifferentlocalchallenges.SurveyrespondentsinAsia-Pacific,for

example,saytheyfaceacutetalentshortages,with54%citinglackofexpertiseasabarrier,far

higherthananyotherregion.NorthAmericanrespondentsaremoreconcernedabouttrustand

explainabilityissues,at38%,reflectingexpectationsforgreaterregulatoryscrutinyand

governance.InEurope,organizationalresistancetochangeranksasakeybarrier,citedbyalmostaquarterofrespondents.

SmallerLSPsandshippersfacedifferentbarriersthantheirlargerpeers.While44%of

respondentsatsmallfirmspointtohighupfrontcostsasahurdle,thatnumberdeclinesto25%atlargefirms.Butevenforsmallerplayers,executionconcerns,capabilitygaps,andROI

uncertaintyrankhigherthancostconcerns.

Thisshifthasprofoundimplications.AIsuccesshasbecomeanoperatingmodelchallenge,notsimplyatooltobeimplementedwhereavailable.Organizationsthatmasterintegration,changemanagement,andoutcomemeasurementwillpullahead,whilethosewaitingforbetter

technologyorlowerpriceswillfallfurtherbehind.

LSPsAreTargetingAIIntegrationandWorkforceReskilling

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AsLSPsandshippersconsidertheirAIinvestmentpriorities,theyarefocusingonexecution.

ImplementingAIandintegratingitintoexistingsystemsisthetoppriorityforroughly60%of

logisticsproviders,followedbytechnologypartnershipsandtalenthiring.(SeeExhibit5.)Clearly,scalingAIacrossoperationalsystems—especiallytransportmanagementsystems,warehousemanagementsystems,andcontroltowers—ismoreimportantthansimplybuildingstandalonecapabilities.

Infact,inBCG’sexperience,mostorganizationsaretakingahybridmake-versus-buyapproachtoAIimplementation.Theyarebuildingproprietarydifferentiatingalgorithmsthataddvalueby

shapingoperationalqualityandcustomerexperience,andbuyingstandardAIcapabilitiesfromvendorsforpurposessuchasback-officeautomation.

Judgingfromthesurveyresults,respondents’expectationsforhowAIwillaffecttheirworkforcesaremorebalancedcomparedtothewidespreadconcernsaboutjoblosswhenGenAIwasfirst

releasedtothepublic.Thesurveysuggestsaphasedtransformation:reskillingintheneartermasorganizationslearntoworkalongsideAI,followedbyheadcountadjustmentsoverthelongertermasAIcapabilitiesmature.About50%ofLSPsanticipateworkforcereskillingneeds,versusfewerthan30%expectingimminentAI-ledheadcountreductions.

HowLSPsCanMovefrom

ExperimentationtoExecution

Thesurveyfindingspointtoanindustryataninflectionpoint.Astheirshippers’expectationsforAIrise,LSPsnolongerseeitasalong-termambition,butratheranimmediatepriority,especially

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fortransportplanning,execution,andvisibility.Yetthebarriersareclear:ROIclarity,internal

capabilities,andorganizationalreadiness.ForLSPs,successfullyimplementingAIwilldependonsixfactors:

Resultsmatter.LogisticsprovidersmustmakeROIexplicitandoperational,notconceptual.ThismeansaligningAIinitiativestospecificoutcomesthatshipperscareabout:lowercost-to-serve,improvedon-timedelivery,fasterreplanning,andfewermanualexceptions.

Executionrequirestalent.Investinworkforcereskilling.Successrequirestrainingplanners,operators,andmanagerssoAIleadstobetterdecisions.Closeinternalcapabilitygapsby

strengtheningsystemintegrationskillsandbuildingdatafoundations.

Integrationiskey.BasedonBCG’sexperiencewithleadingorganizations,realvaluecomesfromembeddingAIdirectlyintosystemswhereworkhappens.Thisrequiresredesigning

workflowsaroundAI,notboltingitontounchangedprocesses.

Maintaincompetitivedifferentiation.LSPsshouldbalancemake-versus-buydecisions

strategically.Sourcestandard,non-differentiatingAIsuchasback-officeautomationfromvendors,whilebuildingdifferentiatingcapabilitiesthatshapeoperationalqualityand

customerexperiencein-housetomaintaincompetitivedifferentiation.(See“HowLSPsAreTakingAdvantageofAI.”)

PromoteAI.BringAIcapabilitiesintocommercialdiscussionsearlier.WhileAIisn’tyeta

deal-breakerinmostcontractnegotiations,itincreasinglyshapesshippers’selectionof

logisticsproviders.CompaniesshouldarticulateAI’svalueinproposals,quarterlybusinessreviews,andservicetenders.

Workwithcustomers.Co-developAIsolutionswithshippers.CollaborateonpilotsandalignonsuccessmetricsearlytoacceleraterolloutandreduceROIuncertainty—especiallywhereAIdifferentiatesoutcomes.

HowLSPsAreTakingAdvantageofAI

LeadinglogisticsprovidersarealreadyscalinguparangeofAIapplications

focusedondatamanagementandanalytics.Forexample,DHL’ssupplychaindivisionhasbegunscalinguparangeofAIapplicationsfocusedondata

managementandanalytics,withthegoalofprovidingcustomerswithpowerfulinsightsintoitslogisticsactivities.

Oneapplication,forexample,cleans,sorts,andanalyzesdatasubmittedbypotentiallogisticscustomers.DHLengineersthenusethisinformationto

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efficientlydesignmoreeffectivelogisticssolutionsanddeliverthemtocustomers

faster.

Asecondapplication,focusedonthesalesteam,enablesfasteranalysisofa

logisticscustomer’srequirements.Thisallowstheteamtoquicklycreatemore

accurate,customizedproposalsandfreestheirexpertisetodevotemoretime

andattentiontosolvingspecificcustomerchallenges.

Together,theseAIapplicationsaretransforminghowthecompanymanagesdata

anddevelopsproposalsforcustomers.Theresultisgreateroperational

efficiencyandaseamlesscustomerexperience,poweredbyAI.

FullSpeedAhead

TheAIraceinlogisticshasenteredtheexecutionphase,creatinga