财务报表分析与证券投资

财务报表分析与证券投资姜国华GuohuaJiang北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授AssociateProfessorofAccountingGuanghuaSchoolofManagementPekingUniversity1TheFatherofAccounting-LucaPacioli

(1445-1517)HewroteafamousmathematicsbookInonechapterheinventeddouble-entryaccountingsystemHetaughtLeonardoDaVinciperspectiveandproportionality.Theknowledgewasusedtopaint“theLastSupper”2学过财务报表分析课程旳请举手3DowJonesIndustrialAverage1930-20234DJIA,NASDAQ1990-20235BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-20236DorDot.bomb-NASDAQ1998-20237TheThreeMajorStockExchanges8TheRegulatorofU.S.StockMarketSEC,theSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionArthurLevitt,commissioner,1993-2023intheClintonadministrationNumbersGameSpeech,19989TheCurrentSECCommissioners10WhoIssueAmericanAccountingStandards?FASB:FinancialAccountingStandardsBoard Setupin1973toreplaceAccountingPrincipleBoard(APB) Anindependent,privateorganization StandardsissuedrecognizedbySEC

GAAP:GenerallyAcceptedAccountingStandards 7conceptstatements(principles) e.g.,No.7(February2023)Usingcashflowinformationandpresentvalueinaccountingmeasurements 148statementsofstandards(rules)bytheyearof2023 e.g.,No.1(December1973)Disclosureofforeigncurrencytranslationinformation11InternationalAccountingStandardsInternationalAccountingStandardsCommittee(IASC) BasedatLondon Independentandprivatelyfunded Meanttodesignasetofworldlyacceptedaccountingstandards Committeeserveasanadvisoryboardmember

InternationalAccountingStandards 41standardsuptotheyearof2023 e.g.,IAS2.Inventory,January1,199512“BigFour”InternationalAccountingFirmsErnstYoung(worldwiderevenue2023:$10.1billions,4.3billionsintheU.S.)PriceWaterhouseCoopersDeloitte&ToucheKPMG13中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会

(ChineseSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission)14NumberofStocksatShanghaiandShenzhenstockexchanges15AmountofCapitalRaisedThroughStockMarkets16MarketCapitalization17MarketSizerelativetoNYSE18MarketPerformance19ProfitabilityofChineseListedFirms:1992-202320ROE21

StockMarketCapitalization/GDP(%)

22SharetypesinChinaSharesTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegalpersonStateAshareBshareH,N,S,…Share2324ShareStructuresofChineseListedCompanies

(December,2023)Non-tradable(0.1billionshares): StateShares2410.6146.20％ DomesticLegalPersonShares663.1712.71％ Othernon-tradableShares331.076.4%Totalnon-tradable3404.8565.25％Tradable: AShares1318.1325.26%BShares163.093.13%H/Nandothershares331.946.36%TotalTradable:1813.1634.75%Total:5218.01100%25LargeShareholderexpropriationofminorityshareholders/TunnelingAnExample,Jiang,LeeandYue,(2023)2627China’sStockMarket:Aten-yearperspectiveFromzerotoanimportantemergingcapitalmarketFirstdevelopedfast,thenbecamestagnant: Fewernewlistings Marketindexdown Raiseslesscapital Lesstradingactivities ListedcompaniesperformedworseOverallLessimportantintheboomingeconomy!28TheUsersoffinancialstatementsEquityinvestorsCreditorsGovernmentCustomerSuppliersLaborunion29课程构造第一节会计信息与资本市场简介第二节会计报表回忆-资产负债表第三节会计报表回忆-损益表第四节会计报表回忆-现金流量表第五节赢余管理与赢余质量第六节获利能力分析第七节获利预测第八节风险分析第九节证券价值评估30PerspectivesofThisCourseAsecurityanalyst’sperspectiveEmphasizetwoissues:EarningsManagementandvaluation31EarningsManagement:Rao,Teoh,Wong,ReviewofAccountingStudies,199832EarningsRestatements–MinWu,HKUST333435WidespreadEarningsManipulation(JiangandWang2023)36Accounting-basedValuationWhoaremypeers?Earningsmultiples,book-valuemultiples,salesmultiplesEVA®,Economicvalueadded,Residualincomevaluation(RIV),Edward,Bell,OhlsonModel(EBO)Inoneword,Sharevalue=f(earnings,bookvalue,dividend,cashflow,etc.)37Accounting-basedValuation-2Ultimately,wedovaluationtoearnhigherreturnsonstocktrading.Wegetanintrinsicvaluenumber,compareittoprevailingstockprice,ifourvalueestimateishigherthanprice,webuy;otherwisewesell.FrankelandLee,JournalofFinance,1999

Togetpapersmentioned,fromaPKUcomputer,gotoorjustaskfromme.38HowImportantisAccountingInformation?January22,2023,aftermarketclosed,AT&T(stocksymbolT)announced: Revenuefor4thquartershrankto$9.3billionfrom10.2billioninthe4thquarterofpreviousyear

Lossfromcontinuingoperationswidenedto$611millionfrom$216million.

39HowImportantisAccountingInformation?

(http:\\)40HowImportantisAccountingInformation?IntheweekendbeforeMonday,Feb.3,2023,Mattel(MAT)announcedfourthquarterresults:Revenueincreasedfromthefourthquarterayearearlierby6.9%to$1.56billion.Netincomeincreasedby35%to$186.1million.Earningspershare(EPS)increasedto42centsfrom31cents.41HowImportantisAccountingInformation?42ValueInvesting:WarrenBuffett

()43InvestingMottoTwofriendswenthuntinginthejungle.Allofasudden,abearjumpedoutofnowhereandcameafterthem.A:Run!B:No,itishopeless,wewo