野村-中国：存量住宅市场初步复苏信号缺乏外推意义-China：Little to extrapolate from green shoots in existing home markets-20260410

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AsiaInsights

GlobalMarketsResearch

10April2026

Economics-Asiaex-Japan

China:Littletoextrapolatefromgreenshootsinexistinghomemarkets

China’sexistinghousingmarketshowssignsofacautiousrecovery,especiallyinsometop-tiercities.Shanghaiisunderthespotlight,withitsexistinghomesalesvolume

reachingafive-yearhighandpricesedginghigher.WhilesomeStreetanalystsandsomemediaclaimitiskickstartingabroadrecoveryinChina’spropertysector,wetendtobe

morecautious.WebelieveShanghaiisuniqueinthatitsrecoverymaynotspilloverto

othercities.Asinthepastcoupleofyears,improvedexistinghomesalesmaydolittletoboostnewhomesales.Recoveryinsometop-tiercitiesmayevensiphondisproportionateamountsofresourcesfromneighboringcities.China’spropertysectorisnowinitssixthyearofcontraction.Despiteallhopes,weexpectpropertydistresstopersistforanothercoupleofyearsduetoentrenchedexpectations,deeplyintertwinednon-performingdebt,andalackofdecisivepolicysolutions.

Improvedexistinghomesalesandprices

Growthinexistinghomesalesvolumeinasampleof18majorcitiesimprovedmarkedlyto-2.1%y-o-yinQ1from-23.0%inQ42025,pointingtosomeearlysignsofstabilization.

Amongthetop-tiercities,Shanghaihastakenthelead,wheresalesgrowthturnedslightlypositiveinQ1.DailyexistinghomesalesinShanghaireached1,585unitson28March,thehighestsingle-daylevelinfiveyears.Improvedtransactionshavebeenaccompaniedbysmallerdeclinesinexistinghomeprices.ThedeclineinNBSexistinghomeprices

moderatedto0.43%m-o-minFebruary,thesmallestfallsinceApril2025.Tier-1citiesarespearheading,withpositivepricechangesreportedinBeijingandShanghai.

Nevertheless,newhomesalesarestillcontractingsharply

Despitesignsofarecoveryofexistinghomemarketsinsometop-tiercities,newhomesalesarestillfallingmuchfasterthanexistinghomesales.Growthinnewhomesalesbyfloorspacein20majorcitiesremainedacutelynegativeat-16.1%y-o-yinQ1,which

compareswith-29.2%inQ4.EvenforShanghai,itsnewhomesalesgrowthwas-12.0%y-o-yinQ1,whichcompareswith-21.4%inQ4.Contractsalesofthetop100developersprovideagloomierpicture,withQ1salesgrowthof-25.0%y-o-yinbothfloorspaceandvalueterms,whichcompareswithQ4growthof-33.6%and-35.2%,respectively.

Existinghomesalesarenotleadingindicatorsofnewhomesales

Existinghomesarenowgenerallypreferredovernewhomes,duetobetteraffordabilityandhomebuyers’reducedconfidenceindevelopers’abilitytodeliverpre-soldhomesontime.AccordingtotheMOHURDdata,from2023to2025,existinghomesalesbyfloorspaceincreased4.0%from2023to2025,whilenewhomesalesandtotalhomesalesdeclined21.2%and11.4%,respectively.Theshareofexistinghomesalesintotalhomesalesincreasedmarkedlyto45.5%in2025from38.8%in2023,butmoreexistinghomesaleshavenotstemmedthedownturnintheoverallhousingmarket,withasustained

declineinhomeprices.

ShanghaiistoouniquetoberepresentativeofChina

Inourview,therecoveryinShanghai’sexistinghousingmarketwasdrivenbyitsrecentgovernmentpurchasesofsmallandoldexistinghomes,thelatestroundofproperty

purchaseeasing,andthestockmarketrally,whichdisproportionatelybenefitsShanghaiasthefinancialcenterofChina.AsmostofthesefactorsareuniquetoShanghai,we

believeShanghai’srecoveryisnotrepresentativeofhousingmarketsinmostothercities.AccordingtotheIcebergindex,aleadinghousingmarketindicator,homepricesin

ShanghaiappeartohavecontinuedtostabilizeinMarch,whileforthewholecountry,homepricedeclinesmighthavewidenedagain.

ResearchAnalysts

AsiaEconomics

JingWang-NIHK

jing.wang@

+85222521011

TingLu-NIHK

ting.lu@

+85222521306

ProductionComplete:2026-04-1009:43UTC

SeeAppendixA-1foranalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnon-USanalysts.

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Becautiouswhenextrapolatingfromexistinghomemarkets

China’sexistinghousingmarketshowssignsofacautiousrecovery,especiallyinsometop-tiercitiessuchasShanghai.WhilesomeStreetanalystsandsomemediaclaimitiskickstartingabroadrecoveryinChina’spropertymarkets,wesuggestbecautiousaboutmakingsuchpredictions.Shanghaiistoouniquetoberepresentativeofothercities.Overthepastfewyearstheriseinexistinghomesalesnationwidemightjustbedueto

householdsshiftingtheirdemandfromnewhomes.Therecoveryinsometop-tiercities’propertymarketsmayevenattractdisproportionateamountsofresourcesfrom

neighboringcities.

Improvementinexistinghomesalesgrowthdata

•Basedonasampleof18cities,weestimategrowthinexistinghomesalesvolumeimprovedmarkedlyto-2.1%y-o-yinQ1from-23.0%inQ42025,pointingtosomeearlysignsofstabilization.

•Amongthetop-tiercities,Shanghaihastakenthelead,withsalesgrowthturning

positiveat1.3%y-o-yinQ1from-20.6%inQ42025.Dailyexistinghomesales

volumeinShanghaireached1,585unitson28March,thehighestsingle-daylevelinfiveyears,accordingtoAnjukeShanghai,alocalrealestateinformationservice

platform.ThedeclineinsalesinBeijingnarrowedsignificantlyto-1.1%y-o-yinQ1from-24.2%inQ4,whileShenzhenstillrecordedasteepdeclineof-15.3%inQ1,whichcompareswith-36.4%inQ4.

BeijingandShanghaireportedhigherhomepricesinFebruary

Theimprovedhometransactionshaveoccurredalongsidesmallerdeclinesinexistinghomeprices.

•InFebruary,thedeclineinNBSexistinghomepricesmoderatedto0.43%m-o-m(Figure1)froma0.54%decreaseinJanuary,afterthedeclinedeepenedfornineconsecutivemonthsfromApril2025.

•Bycitytier,thedeclineinexistinghomepricesnarrowedmarkedlyintier-1cities,withthem-o-mchangerisingto-0.1%inFebruary,thehighestreadingsinceMarch2025,from-0.48%inJanuary.BeijingandShanghaipostedpositivechangesof0.3%m-o-mand0.2%(Figure2),respectively,thefirstpositivereadingssinceMarch2025and

April2025,comparingwithdeclinesof-0.2%and-0.4%inJanuary.Homeprices

continuedtodeclineinGuangzhouandShenzhen,albeitataslightlyslowerpaceof-0.5%m-o-mand-0.4%,respectively,inFebruary,from-0.7%and-0.6%inJanuary.

•Intier-2andtier-3/4cities,homepricesdeclinedby0.33%m-o-mand0.47%,

respectively,inFebruary,improvingmarginallyfromthe0.47%and0.58%decreasesinJanuary.

Fig.1:NBSexistinghomepricesbycitytier

Source:NBS,Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.2:ExistinghomepricesinBeijingandShanghai

Source:NBS,Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

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Existinghomesalesmaynotportendnewhomesales

Oneconomicimplications,thereissharpdifferencebetweensalesofnewandexisting

homes.Inthecaseofpurchasingnewhomes,householdsavingsandwealthare

channeledtodevelopersandlocalgovernmentsandlaterturnintopropertyand

infrastructureinvestment,whichthenbecomepartofcapitalformationandpartofGDP.

Bycontrast,forexistinghomesales,householdsavingssimplyflowfromonehouseholdtoanother,resultinginlimitedimplicationsfortheoveralleconomy.Asaresult,thekey

questioniswhethertheearlysignsofstabilizationinexistinghomesalesportendastabilizationofnewhomesales.Weseelittleevidencesupportingthislink.

Newhomesalesarestillcontractingsharply

Despitethenascentsignsofrecoveryinexistinghomemarketsinsometop-tiercities,newhomesalesarestillfallingfasterthanexistinghomesales.

•AccordingtotheWindsurveyof20majorcities,growthinnewhomesalesbyfloorspaceremainedacutelynegativeat-16.1%y-o-yinQ1,andcomparewith-29.2%inQ4.EvenforShanghai,itsnewhomesalesgrowthwas-12.0%y-o-yinQ1,and

compareswith-21.4%inQ4.

•Contractsalesreportedbythetop100developerssuggestagloomierpicture,withQ1salesgrowthof-25.0%y-o-yinbothfloorspaceandvalueterms(Figure3),

comparingwithQ4growthof-33.6%and-35.2%,respectively.

•Accordingtotheofficialdata,growthinNBSnewhomesalesbyfloorspaceandbyvalueremainednegativeat-13.5%y-o-yand-20.2%,respectively,inJanuary-

February,comparingwith-16.9%and-24.1%inQ4.

•Inviewofthesalesperformanceof20majorcitiesandtop100developers,weexpectofficialNBSnewhomesalesdatatoremainindouble-digitcontractioninQ1.Onnewhomeprices,theyarehighlyregulatedinChina,sotheyarenotanappropriate

measureofhomepricesinChina.

Thecasein2023

Aparticularcaseinpointis2023,whenhometransactionswereboostedbythereleaseofpost-Covidpent-updemand.AccordingtodatafromtheMinistryofHousingandUrban–RuralDevelopment(MOHURD),weestimateexistinghomesalesbyfloorspacejumpedatleast17%y-o-yinthefirst11monthsof2023,raisingitsshareoftotalhome

transactions(thesumofnewandexistinghomes)to37.1%.However,thesharpreboundinsecondaryhousingmarketsfailedtokickstartarecoveryinoverallhousingmarkets,

andthepropertydownturnpersistedin2024-25.

AccordingtotheMOHURDdata,from2023to2025,existinghomesalesbyfloorspaceincreased4.0%from2023to2025(Figure4),whileatthesametimenewhomesalesandtotalhomesalesdeclinedby21.2%and11.4%,respectively.Theshareofexistinghomesalesintotalhomesalesincreasedmarkedlyby6.7ppto45.5%in2025from38.8%in

2023,butmoresalesofexistinghomeshavenotstemmedthedownturnintheoverallhousingmarket,withasustaineddeclineinhomeprices.

Whyhaveexistinghomesalesoutperformednewhomesalesrecently?

Webelievetherearetwomajorreasons.First,duepartlytofewercontrols,pricesof

existinghomeshavedeclinedmoresignificantlythanthoseofnewhomes,makingexistinghomesmoreaffordable.ThisisespeciallythecaseasChina’sexistinghomepriceshavealreadyplungednearly40%fromtheirpeak,backtolevelsadecadeearlier.

Second,underthepresalessystem,newhomesalesremainthelargestfundingsourceforpropertydevelopers.Amidthesustainedsteepdeclineinsales,developersarestill

strugglingtohonortheircolossaldebtanddeliverpresoldhomesontime,despitetheir

strenuouseffortsondebtrestructuringandBeijing’spolicysupport,suchasthewhitelistprograminthepastfewyears.Duetoalackofconfidenceindevelopers’creditconditionsandinabilitytodeliverpresoldhomesinatimelymanner,whichstillcontribute68%of

overallnewhomesales,existinghomesarenowgenerallypreferredovernewhomes.

Homebuyers’concernsaboutthecredibilityofthepresalesmodelarealsoevidencedbymorepurchasesoffinishedhomes,whichjumped67.8%during2021-25,withtheirshareintotalnewhomesalesrisingsharplyto32.4%in2025from10.2%in2020(Figure7).

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Fig.3:Newhomesalesvolume:CRIC'stop100developers

Note:JanuaryandFebruarydataarepresentedasthesamevalueasanaverageofthesetwomonthstosmoothoutLNYdistortions.

Source:CRIC,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.4:Nationalnewandexistinghomesalesbyfloorspace

Source:MOHURD,NBS,Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

ShanghaiistoouniquetoberepresentativeofChina

TherecoveryinsecondaryhometransactionsandpricesinChina’sfinancialhubof

Shanghaihavegarneredwideattentionfrommarkets.Inthissection,wediscussseveralreasonsbehindShanghai’sspecialrecovery,includingthelatesteasinginhomepurchaserestrictions,statepurchasesofsmallandoldhomes,theunevenwealtheffectofthestockmarketrally,andstabilizedincomeforfinancialprofessionalsamidsurgingstocktradingactivity.AsmostofthesefactorsareuniquefeaturesofShanghai,webelieveShanghai’srecoveryisnotrepresentativeofsecondaryhousingmarketsinmostothercities.

ImprovedsalesandpricesofexistinghomesinShanghai

InShanghai,existinghomepricesrose0.2%m-o-minFebruary,endingnineconsecutivemonthsofsteepdeclinessinceApril2025.AstheleadingindicatorIcebergindex,i.e.“thelowestlistprices”,recordedanotherincreaseof0.3%m-o-minMarch,followingthe0.5%increaseinFebruary,existinghomepricesinShanghaimayhavefurtherstabilizedin

March.Risinghomepriceshavebeenaccompaniedbyimprovedtransactionsactivity,

withgrowthinexistinghomesalesvolumeinShanghairisingto1.3%y-o-yinQ1from-20.6%inQ4.DailyexistinghomesalesvolumeinShanghaireached1,585unitson28

March(Figure5),thehighestsingle-daylevelinfiveyears,accordingtoAnjukeShanghai,alocalrealestateinformationserviceplatform.

WeseethreefactorssupportingShanghaisecondaryhousingmarkets

First,on25February,theShanghaimunicipalgovernmentannouncedanewroundof

easingmeasurestorelaxhomepurchaserestrictionsfornon-locals.Non-localresidentsnowneedonlyoneyearofpaymentsofsocialsecurityorpersonalincometaxtopurchaseahomeinurbanareasofShanghai.Previously,threeyearsofpaymentwererequired.

Evenwithoutproofofsuchpayments,non-localresidentsarenowallowedtopurchaseonlyonehomeinShanghai,includingurbanandsuburbanareas,aslongastheyhavehada“ShanghaiResidencePermit”forfiveyearsorlonger.Theeasingmeasuresmighthaveattractedmorehomepurchasesfromnon-locals.

Second,on2February,theShanghaigovernmentlaunchedapilotprogramtoacquire

existinghomestoboostthesupplyofaffordablerentalhousingformigrants,college

graduates,andothernewresidents.Thisprogramwasinitiatedinthreedistricts,includingPudong,JinganandXuhui,withfundingsupportfromChinaConstructionBank.The

programtargetssmallandoldexistinghomeswithintheinnerringroadthatwerebuiltbefore2000,withfloorareasoflessthan70squaremetersandpricesnohigherthanRMB4.0mn.Withstatefunding,thisprogramhasdirectlyboostedtransactionvolumeofexistinghomes,especiallysmallandoldhomes.

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Third,asoneofthetwolargestfinancialcentersinChina,Shanghai’shousingmarkets

havebenefitedfromthestockmarketrallythroughtwochannels:someunevenwealth

effectsfromequitypricegainsandimprovedcompensationforfinancialprofessionals

amidsurgingstocktradingvolume.AsShanghaiisaprimaryhometoChinesebillionairesandfinancialprofessionals,itshousingmarketsmighthavebeensupportedbytheunevenwealtheffectandsurgingstocktradingactivity.

•Onwealtheffects,fromJuly2025toFebruary2026,theWindAll-AIndex,aholisticbenchmarktrackingtheoverallperformanceofallA-shareslistedontheShanghai,Shenzhen,andBeijingstockexchanges,increasedby30.6%,whichshouldhave

causedsomewealtheffects.AccordingtoBloombergreports,thestockrallywas

mainlydrivenbyfundsfromhighnet-worthindividuals,ratherthaninflowsfrom

householdsavings.AlthoughthestockmarketrallyinH22025resultedinlimited

nationwidewealtheffectsandaminimaloveralleconomicimpact,aswepredictedinSeptember2025,itmighthaveunevenlybenefitedsomewealthyinvestors.

•Onsurgingstocktrading,itshouldhavepushedupoverallrevenuesofbrokerage

houses,despitelowercommissionratesthanadecadeearlier,andboostedincomeoffinancialprofessionals.Thedailyaverageofstocktradingvolumessurgedtoanew

highofRMB2.6trninQ12026(Figure6),afterjumpingtoRMB2.0trninQ4andRMB2.1trninQ3fromRMB1.2trninQ22025.

Fig.5:ExistinghomesalesvolumeinShanghai:7dma

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.6:Stocktradingvolumesurgedfurthersincemid-2025

Note:StocktradingvolumereferstocombinedturnoveronbothShanghaiandShenzhenbourses.

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

HomepricedeclinesmayworsenagaininMarch

Inmid-February,weforecastthat“thedeclineinhomepricesislikelytomoderatefurtherinFebruary”,basedonleadinginformationfromtheIcebergindex.Inlinewithouroutlook,thedeclineintheNBSexistinghomepricesmoderatedto-0.43%m-o-minFebruaryfrom-0.54%inJanuaryand-0.70%inDecember.However,momentummighthavefalteredinMarch,astheIcebergindexworsenedto-0.6%m-o-minMarchfrom-0.1%inFebruary

and-0.7%inJanuary,pointingtoawiderdeclineinexistinghomepricesagaininMarch.Ifthisisthecase,theimprovementinthefirsttwomonthsofthisyearwaslikelymainlya

resultofLNYholidayeffects,ratherthanarealrecoveryinthesecondaryhousingmarkets.

WhatistheIcebergindex?

TheIcebergindexisawidelyusedindicatorfortrackingexistinghomepricesinChina.

Developedbyaprivateplatformcompany,theindexfocusesonthelowestlistedprices,or“marginal”listedprices,ofexistinghomesinresidentialcompounds.Bymonitoringthe

lowestaskingpricesonaweeklybasis,thisindexaimstoprovideamoreaccurateand

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timelyreflectionofhousingpriceinformation.Unlikeaverageormedianlistedprices,

whichmightbeinflatedbyextremelyhighaskingprices,oractualtransactionprices,whichtendtobemoresporadic,theIcebergindexoffersmorefrequentandcontinuousprice

informationthatmayhelpcaptureearlysignsofmarketdepressionorrecovery.

Coverageandreliability

Theindexcovers100citiesandhasproventoberelativelyreliableinreflectingactualhousingpricefluctuationsinChina(Figure8).OfficialdatafromtheNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS)indicatethatexistinghomepricesin70citiespeakedinJuly2021andnowhavedeclinedtomid-2016levels.TheIcebergindexhasexhibitedsimilarpatterns,thoughwithnotabledifferencesinmagnitude.AccordingtotheNBSdata,existinghomepricesdeclinedby22.2%fromtheirJuly2021peakthroughFebruary2026.Incontrast,theIcebergindexsuggestsamuchmoresignificant41.0%dropoverthesameperiod.

WebelievetheIcebergindexmightprovideamoreaccuratepictureofactualhousing

marketconditions,particularlywhenotheralternativedatasourcesareconsidered.TheCentalineLeadingIndex(CLI),whichisalsocompiledbasedonexistinghomeprices,

supportsthisview.TheCLIindicatesthataverageexistinghomepricesinsixmajorcities

–Shanghai,Beijing,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,TianjinandChengdu–declinedby38.5%fromtheirJuly2021peakthroughFebruary2026,closelyinlinewiththepriceadjustmentimpliedbytheIcebergindex.

Fig.7:Presalesvssalesofcompletedhomes

Source:NBS,Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.8:ExistinghomepricedeclinesmighthavewidenedagaininMarch

Note:Icebergindexreferstothelowestlistedpricesforexistinghomesinthesameresidentialcompound.

Source:

,NBS,Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

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AppendixA-1

ThisreporthasbeenproducedbyNomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.(NIHK),HongKong.

SeeDisclaimersforNomuraGroupentitydetails.

AnalystCertification

We,JingWangandTingLu,herebycertify(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisResearchreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersreferredtointhisResearchreport,(2)nopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectly

relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisResearchreportand(3)nopartofourcompensationistiedtoanyspecificinvestmentbankingtransactionsperformedbyNomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.,NomuraInternationalplcoranyotherNomuraGroup

company.

ImportantDisclosures

Onlineavailabilityofresearchandconflict-of-interestdisclosures

NomuraGroupresearch

isavailableon/research

,Bloomberg,CapitalIQ,Factset,LSEG.

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/research/m/Disclosuresor

requestedfromNomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.

Ifyouhaveanydifficultieswiththewebsite,pleaseemail

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Theanalystsresponsibleforpreparingthisreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactorsincludingthefirm'stotalrevenues,aportionofwhichisgeneratedbyInvestmentBankingactivities.Unlessotherwisenoted,thenon-USanalystslistedatthefrontofthisreportarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystsunderFINRArules,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofNSI,andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcoveredcompanies,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

NomuraGlobalFinancialProductsInc.(NGFP)NomuraDerivativeProductsInc.(NDP)andNomuraInternationalplc.(NIplc)areregisteredwiththeCommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissionandtheNationalFuturesAssociation(NFA)asswapdealers.NGFP,NDPI,andNIplcare

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ThispublicationcontainsmaterialthathasbeenpreparedbytheNomuraGroupentityidentifiedonpage1and,ifapplicable,withthe

contributionsofoneormoreNomuraGroupentitieswhoseemployeesandtheirrespectiveaffiliationsarespecifiedonpage1oridentified

elsewhereinthispublication.Theterm"NomuraGroup"usedhereinreferstoNomuraHoldings,Inc.anditsaffiliatesandsubsidiariesincluding:

(a)NomuraSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.('NSC')Tokyo,Japan,(b)NomuraFinancialProductsEuropeGmbH(‘NFPE’),Germany,(c)Nomura

Internationalplc('NIplc'),UK,(d)NomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.('NSI'),NewYork,US,(e)NomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.

(‘NIHK’),HongKong,(f)NomuraFinancialInvestment(Korea)Co.,Ltd.(‘NFIK’),Korea(InformationonNomuraanalystsregisteredwiththe

KoreaFinancialInvestmentAssociation('KOFIA')canbefoundontheKOFIAIntranetat

http://dis.kofia.or.kr

,(g)NomuraSingaporeLtd.(‘NSL’),Singapore(Registrationnumber197201440E,regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore)(h)NomuraAustraliaLtd.(‘NAL’),Australia

(ABN48003032513),regulatedbytheAustralianSecuritiesandInvestmentCommission('ASIC')andholderofanAustralianfinancialserviceslicencenumber246412,(i)NomuraSecuritiesMalaysiaSdn.Bhd.(‘NSM’),Malaysia,(j)NIHK,TaipeiBranch(‘NITB’),Taiwan,(k)Nomura

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(Group)Co.,Ltd.InaccordancewiththelawsofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(“PRC”,excludingHongKong,MacauandTaiwan,forthe

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reportindicatesthattheindividualisemployedbyPTVerdhanaSekuritasIndonesia('Verdhana')toprovideresearc