伯恩斯坦-中国代工厂：2025年第四季度模型更新 - 供应收紧-China Foundry 4Q25 model update - tightening supply

1April2026

ChinaSemiconductors

ChinaFoundry:4Q25modelupdate-tighteningsupply

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.

+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

ZhengCui

+85221232694

zheng.cui@

FrancisMa

+85221232626

francis.ma@

SMIC&HuaHong’s4Q24printsaremostlyin-linewithexpectation.SMIC's4Q24revenueslightlybeattheconsensus,GPM&NPMslightlylowerthanconsensus.HuaHong’s4Q24revenue&GPMlargelyinlinewithconsensus&mgmtguidance.Basedonourrecent

channelcheck,weupdatedourSMIC&HuaHongmodelswithchangetothefundamentalstoreflectthat.Duetotighteningsupplyandbetterthanexpecteddemand(mobile/PC

willbeweak,butrestsectorsstillstrong),weareseeingapotentialASPincreasein2026.

MaintainOutperformonbothstocks.

WemaintainPTforHuaHongH-shareatHKD100&A-shareatCNY100,howeverwe

havetrimmedourP/Bmultipleto3.2xfrom4.2xforSMICtoreflectneartermweakness,hencereviseddownourTPforSMICH-shareatHKD70(from100)&A-shareatCNY120(from150)accordingly.

ASPexpecttoincreaseduetotighter8-inchsupplyandmemoryCMOSoutsourcingcannibalizesupply.WeanticipateastructuralupwardtrajectoryinASPdrivenby

tighteningsupply-demanddynamicsacrossmaturenodesinChina,particularlyas8-

inchutilizationratesconsistentlyexceed100%,andmemoryCMOSoutsourcingfrom

localNANDplayercannibalizesthematuredlogicsupply.Theaggressiveexpansionof

domesticAIandmemoryecosystemsisabsorbingasignificantportionofmature-node

output,withAIrelatedlogicandoutsourcedCMOSproductionformajorNANDplayers

effectivelycannibalizingavailable12"capacity.Furthermore,asglobalpeerstransition

legacyfabstowardadvancedpackagingormemory,theresultingsupplycontraction

createsafavorablepricingenvironmentglobally,allowingleadingdomesticfoundriesto

structurallyraisequotesandeliminatepricediscounts,potentiallysecuringmid-single-digitASPgrowthin2026.

Demandisstillgrowing,Chinesefoundrystillgainsshares.Whilemanyareconcernedthathighermemorypricingwillimpactconsumerelectronicsdemand,theonlyarea

impactedismobileandPC,whiletherestisstillgrowing.Atthesametime,demandfromAI,solar,energystorageetc.arestillseeingstronggrowthtooffsetpartofthemobile/PCweakness.Chinesefoundriesarepoisedtosustaintheirmarketshareexpansionagainstglobalpeers,underpinnedbytheaccelerating"China-for-China"localizationpushboth

fromChineseandnon-Chinesedesignhouse.Domesticfablesscustomersarestructurallyallocatingahigherproportionoftheirorderstolocalfoundries,drivenbybothgeopoliticalde-riskingandcompetitivepricing,whichhaspropelleddomesticrevenuecontributionstoapproximately85%forleadingplayers.

MarginpressurestillexistsespeciallyforHuaHongin2028whentheystartto

rampanothernewfab.Despiterobusttop-linegrowthandhighutilization,structural

grossmarginpressureswillpersistasacriticalriskfactor,primarilydrivenbytheheavy

depreciationburdenassociatedwithaggressivecapacityexpansion.ForHuaHong

specifically,whilethecurrentramp-upofFab9Awillreachpeakcapacityby2026,the

plannedconstructionofthesecondphase(Fab9B)andsubsequentnewfabadditions

slatedfor2027willtriggeranothermassivewaveofcapitalexpenditure.Consequently,asthesenewfacilitiescommenceoperationsandscaleuparound2028,theresultingsurgeindepreciationcostswillseverelycompressprofitability,effectivelyoffsettingtheoperationalleveragegainedfromhigherASPsandvolumegrowth.

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.

FirstPublished:31Mar202621:30UTCCompletionDate:31Mar202616:30UTC

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE

31Mar

2026

TTM

ReportedEPSReportedP/E(x)

Ticker

Rating

Cur

Closing Price

Price

Target

Rel.

Perf.

Cur

2025A2026E2027E

2025A2026E2027E

1347.HK(HuaHong-H)

O

HKD

77.65

100.00

130.4%

USD

0.030.110.16312.293.163.8

OLD

0.12

688347.CH(HuaHong-A)

O

CNY

105.90

140.00

104.6%

USD

0.030.110.16482.7144.098.6

OLD

0.12

981.HK(SMIC-H)

O

HKD

50.70

70.00

(10.2)%

USD

0.090.100.1375.464.651.3

OLD

100.00

0.11

688981.CH(SMIC-A)

O

CNY

94.05

120.00

(15.9)%

USD

0.090.100.13158.6135.8107.9

OLD

150.00

0.110.00

ASIAX

1,624.90

PRICETARGETCHANGE/ESTIMATECHANGEINBOLD

O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspendedSource:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.

INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS

WerateSMICOutperformwithaPriceTargetofHKD70/CNY120forH/A-share.WevalueSMIC’sH-shareat3.2xNTMP/Bmultiple,basedonourestimateofnext-four-quartersbookvalueexcludingintangibleassetsandgoodwillofUSD2.80peryear.WevalueSMIC’sA-sharewithaA-Hpremiumof1.7x.

WerateHuaHongOutperformwithaPriceTargetofHKD100/CNY140forH/A-share.WevalueHuaHong'sH-shareat3.2xNTMP/Bmultiple,basedonourestimateofnext-four-quartersbookvalueexcludingintangibleassetsandgoodwillofUSD

4.05.WevalueHuaHong'sA-sharewitha1.5xA-Hpremium.

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP2

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP3

DETAILS

EXHIBIT1:ChinesemainlandfoundrieshavehigherutilizationratethanTaiwanpeersintherecentquarters,despitemoreaggressivecapacityexpansion

110%111%

102%102%

97%

92%98%

78%

1Q222Q223Q22

77%

71%

2Q253Q254Q25

90%

80%

54%

4Q22

SMIC

51%

1Q232Q233Q23HuaHong

120%

110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

105%

90%

71%

71%

3Q24

98%

85%

68%

67%

2Q24

UtilizationrateofFoundriesinChineseMainlandandTaiwan

92%

81%

65%

56%

1Q24

84%

77%

66%

57%

4Q23

71%

67%

62%62%

103%103%

90%86%

108%

93%

76%

110%

96%

78%

107%

103%103%

87%

78%77%

104%

97%

78%

70%

64%

VanguardInternational

73%

69%

70%

68%

4Q241Q25

74%

UMC

UMC&VISarecoveredbyBernsteinAsianSemiconductorsAnalystMarkLi.

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT2:AtthesametimetheGPMformainlandfoundrieswerealsomuchlowerthanTaiwanesepeersGPMoffoundriesinChineseMainlandandTaiwan

16%

4%

4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23SMICHuaHong

31%

24%

14%

6%

1Q24

UMC

50%

46%

39%

34%

2Q22

47%

45%

39%

37%

3Q22

48%

43%

41%

27%

1Q22

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

35%

26%

14%

10%

2Q24

34%

29%

20%

12%

3Q24

30%

23%

11%

4Q24

30%

27%

23%

9%

1Q25

2%

20%

11%

2Q25

31%

28%

19%

13%

30%

27%

22%

14%

36%

30%

2%

36%

27%

20%

32%

23%

16%

35%

30%

32%

21%

VanguardInternational

3Q254Q25

43%

39%

32%

38%

29%

UMC&VISarecoveredbyBernsteinAsianSemiconductorsAnalystMarkLi.Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysis

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP4

EXHIBIT3:ForSMIC,astheD&Aas%ofrevremainhighat35-40%,majorreasonforthelowGPMisdepreciation

SMICGrossMargin

70%

61%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Depreciation%ofRev.GrossMarginGrossMargin(excl.D&A)

58%

37%

20.8%

60%

40%

20.0%

57%

35%

22.5%

52%

36%

16.4%

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT4:SimilarforHuaHong,theD&A%ofrevenueishighandbringspressureonGPM,especiallyin2028whenthefab9Bdepreciationkicksin

56%

32%

28%

4.0%

46%

43%

33%

26%

19.8%

9.4%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

D&AofRevenueGrossMarginGrossMarginex-D&A

45%

28%

17.2%

HuaHongGrossMargin

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP5

EXHIBIT5:Duetocompetition,ASPrecoveryofmaturednodefoundriesweremutedinrecentquarters.Vanguardrecoveredfirstwithhigher8-inchexposure

US$/8''eqwf

1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25

SMICHuaHongUMCVanguardInternational

1025

933

875

826

627

581

423419

651

604

459

426

1100

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

ASPoffoundriesinChineseMainlandandTaiwan

1076

1006

961

605

560

500

966

892

578

415

907

846

600

436

874

844

587

415

836

899

582

410

981

909

674

597

926

865

629

543

802

842

634

438

949

901

664

579

938

912

644

607

960

577

948

581

933

617

907

900

931

944

UMC&VISarecoveredbyBernsteinAsianSemiconductorsAnalystMarkLi.Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysis

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP6

MODELUPDATE&VALUATION

SMIC

•SMIChasalmost20%ofsmartphoneexposure,whichfacesdownsiderisksamidhighmemoryprices.Hence,werevise

downourprojectionofSMIC’s2026Erevenueandexpectrecoveryfrom2027Eonward.ForGPM,wewereoptimisticaboutSMIC’sadvancednoderampupbutignoredtheconsumerelectronicsdisruption,nowwerevisedownourprojectionfor

GPMasaresultofsubduedconsumerdemand.Lastly,weadmitthatwehavelowvisibilityonNetProfitasitisnoteasytomodelminorityinterestforSMIC.

EXHIBIT6:SMICmodelupdate:Newvs.Oldvs.Consensus

Revenue(USDmn)

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

Bernstein

6,322

8,030

9,327

11,023

13,227

14,516

GrowthYoY

(13%)

27%

16%

18%

20%

10%

Consensus

11,074

12,870

14,205

GrowthYoY

19%

16%

10%

Bernsteinvs.consensus

(0%)

3%

2%

Bernsteinold

11,192

13,107

14,515

GrowthYoY

20%

17%

11%

Newvs.Old

(2%)

1%

0%

Grossprofit

Bernstein

1,218

1,448

1,957

2,326

2,901

3,290

GPMargin

19%

18%

21%

21%

22%

23%

GPGrowthYoY

(56%)

19%

35%

19%

25%

13%

Consensus

2,303

2,859

3,258

GPMargin

21%

22%

23%

GPGrowthYoY

18%

24%

14%

Bernsteinvs.consensus-GPM

31bps

(28bps)

(27bps)

Bernsteinvs.consensus-GP

1%

1%

1%

Bernsteinold

2,582

3,377

4,353

GPMargin

23%

26%

30%

GPGrowthYoY

32%

31%

29%

Newvs.Old-GPM

(197bps)

(383bps)

(732bps)

Newvs.Old-GP

(10%)

(14%)

(24%)

Operatingprofit

Bernstein

358

474

1,110

1,159

1,593

1,883

OPMargin

6%

6%

12%

11%

12%

13%

OPGrowthYoY

(81%)

32%

134%

4%

37%

18%

Consensus

1,234

1,643

2,004

OPMargin

11%

13%

14%

OPGrowthYoY

11%

33%

22%

Bernsteinvs.consensus-OPM

(63bps)

(72bps)

(113bps)

Bernsteinvs.consensus-OP

(6%)

(3%)

(6%)

Bernsteinold

1,278

1,903

2,720

OPMargin

11%

15%

19%

OPGrowthYoY

15%

49%

43%

Newvs.Old-OPM

(91bps)

(248bps)

(577bps)

Newvs.Old-OP

(9%)

(16%)

(31%)

Netincomeattributabletoshareholders

Bernstein

903

493

685

812

1,047

1,350

NPMargin

14%

6%

7%

7%

8%

9%

GrowthYoY

(50%)

(45%)

39%

18%

29%

29%

Consensus

1,029

1,370

1,739

NPMargin

9%

10%

12%

GrowthYoY

45%

33%

27%

Bernsteinvs.consensus-NPM

(197bps)

(244bps)

(268bps)

Bernsteinvs.consensus

-21%

-24%

-22%

Bernsteinold

913

1,362

2,027

NPMargin

8%

10%

14%

GrowthYoY

33%

49%

49%

Newvs.Old-NPM

(80bps)

(248bps)

(466bps)

Newvs.Old-NP

(11%)

(23%)

(33%)

Source:Bloomberg,companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP7

EXHIBIT7:SMIC’sP/Bistradingnearitshistoricalaverage

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

TTMP/BAverageAverage+1S.D.Average-1S.D.

5.0x

4.5x

4.0x

3.5x

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

0.5x

0.0x

1.6x

0.7x

TTMP/BofSMIC

2.1x

2.4x

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT8:WeexpectSMIC’srevenuetorecoverQoQin2025

US$B

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25E

3Q25E

4Q25E

QoQ/YoY

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%

-30%

OverallRevenueOverallRevenueQoQYoY

0.80.90.90.80.70.80.80.8

SMICRevenueandgrowthrate

1.81.6

1.4

1.61.61.71.8

2.22.21.9

1.91.9

1.6

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

2.42.1

1.31.1

1.11.0

0.90.9

2.2

2.4

1.5

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP8

EXHIBIT9:SMICRevenue&YoYgrowth

SMICRevenue&YoYgrowth

16

14

12

10

8

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Revenue(USDbn)

RevenueYoY

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

14.513.2

39%34%

11.0

25%

9.3

18%16%

70%20%

7.3

5.4

6.310%

6

4

2

0

3.93.1

-7%

-13%

-10%

-20%

RevenueYoYgrowth

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT11:WeexpectSMIC’sOPMtorecovertoHSD

USDbn

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

1.8

25%

26%

1.4

2

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

0.90.7

8%8%

SMICOperatingprofit&GPM

OperatingprofitOPM

8%

0.3

2%

0.4

5%

0.4

6%

0.0

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT10:SMICGrossprofit&GPM

USDBn

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

3.32.9

22%23%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

2.3

2.019%

38%

2.8

31%

1.7

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

24%

21%

0.90.6

SMICGrossprofit&GPM

GrossprofitGPM

1.4

18%

21%21%

1.2

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT12:SMICEPS&YoYgrowth

SMICEPS&YoYgrowth

USDCents

143%91%

73%

11.27

4.65

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

15.88

38%12.61

10.02

8.58

25

20

15

10

5

0

EPSYoYgrowth

6.20-50%-46%

22.9921.55

26%26%

11.38

17%

7%

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP9

EXHIBIT13:Mostappliactionsremainflatin4Q25

SMICRevenuebyApplication(US$M)

SmartphoneComputerandTabletConsumerElectronicsConnectivityandloT

3Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q25

lndustrialandAutomotive

4Q25

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-

100%

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT14:ConsumerEletronicsshareincreasedabitto47.3%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

SMICRevenueSharebyEndMarket

9.3%

11.5%

24.1%

29.2%

25.9%

3Q23

7.6%

8.8%

22.8%

30.6%

30.2%

4Q23

7.2%

13.2%

30.9%

17.5%

31.2%

1Q24

8.1%

11.0%

35.6%

13.3%

32.0%

2Q24

7.9%

8.2%

42.6%

16.4%

24.9%

3Q24

8.2%

8.3%

40.2%

19.1%

24.2%

4Q24

9.6%

8.3%

40.6%

17.3%

24.2%

1Q25

10.6%

8.2%

41.0%

15.0%

25.2%

2Q25

11.9%

8.0%

43.4%

15.2%

21.5%

3Q25

12.2%

7.2%

47.3%

11.8%

21.5%

4Q25

SmartphoneComputerandTabletConsumerElectronicsConnectivityandIoTIndustrialandAutomotive

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysis

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP10

EXHIBIT15:Chinarevenuecontributionfurtherincreased200bpsin4Q25

SMICRevenueBreakdownbyRegion

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

100%

90%

80%

70%

3%3%3%2%

13%13%11%10%

9%8%9%11%14%16%15%13%13%12%130%33%33%32%32%28%25%22%26%22%1

6%6%4%4%6%5%3%3%4%4%4%3%2%

2%16%17%14%13%13%11%9%

20%19%19%21%25%20%18%16%15%16%

9%23%20%

28%28%

60%

50%

40%

30%

74%75%77%75%76%80%84%81%82%80%86%89%84%84%86%88%

62%59%58%58%54%57%61%65%62%66%70%56%56%63%67%69%

20%

10%

0%

ChinaNorthAmericaEurasia

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysis

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP11

HUAHONG

•ForHuaHong,weareslightlymorepositiveonthetoplinebutnegativeontheGPMespeciallyfor2028E,as9BstarttorecognizeD&A,weexpectGPMwillbesubduedunlessmeaningfulpricehiketooffsetthepressure.

EXHIBIT16:HuaHongmodelupdate:Newvs.Oldvs.Consensus

Revenue(USDmn)

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

Model

2,475

2,286

2,004

2,402

3,052

3,678

4,093

GrowthYoY

52%

(8%)

(12%)

20%

27%

21%

11%

Consensus

3,044

3,595

4,067

GrowthYoY

27%

18%

13%

vs.consensus

0%

2%

1%

Bernsteinold

2,996

3,352

N.A.

GrowthYoY

25%

10%

N.A.

Newvs.Old

2%

10%

N.A.

Grossprofit

Model

844

487

205

283

471

711

560

GPMargin

34%

21%

10%

12%

15%

19%

14%

GrowthYoY

87%

(42%)

(58%)

38%

66%

51%

(21%)

Consensus

484

645

766

GPMargin

16%

18%

19%

GrowthYoY

71%

33%

19%

vs.consensus-GPMargin

(46bps)

138bps

(517bps)

vs.consensus-GP

(3%)

10%

(27%)

Bernsteinold

455

559

N.A.

GPMargin

15%

15%

N.A.

GrowthYoY

61%

23%

N.A.

Newvs.Old-GPMargin

53bps

413bps

N.A.

Newvs.Old-GP

4%

27%

N.A.

Operatingprofit

Model

565

154

(156)

(143)

12

254

87

OPMargin

23%

7%

(8%)

(6%)

0%

7%

2%

GrowthYoY

133%

(73%)

(201%)

(8%)

(108%)

2,066%

(66%)

Consensus

68

170

319

OPMargin

2%

5%

8%

GrowthYoY

(147%)

152%

87%

vs.consensus-OPMargin

(184bps)

217bps

(573bps)

vs.consensus-OP

(83%)

49%

(73%)

Bernsteinold

4

132

N.A.

OPMargin

0%

4%

N.A.

GrowthYoY

-103%

3200%

N.A.

Newvs.Old-OPMargin

25bps

333bps

N.A.

Newvs.Old-OP

194%

93%

N.A.

Netincomeattributabletoshareholders

Model

450

280

58

55

185

270

193

NPMargin

18%

12%

3%

2%

6%

7%

5%

GrowthYoY

76%

(38%)

(79%)

(6%)

237%

46%

(28%)

Consensus

205

294

356

NPMargin

7%

8%

9%

GrowthYoY

273%

44%

21%

vs.consensus-NPMargin

(66bps)

(66bps)

(398bps)

vs.consensus-NP

-10%

-8%

-46%

Bernsteinold

250

239

N.A.

NPMargin

8%

6%

N.A.

GrowthYoY

356%

-4%

N.A.

Newvs.Old-NPMargin

(214bps)

84bps

N.A.

Newvs.Old-NP

-26%

13%

N.A.

Source:Bloomberg,companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP12

EXHIBIT17:HuaHong’sP/Bistradingatabove-historicalaverage

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Feb-21

Jun-21

Oct-21

Feb-22

Jun-22

Oct-22

Feb-23

Jun-23

Oct-23

Feb-24

Jun-24

Oct-24

Feb-25

Jun-25

Oct-25

Feb-26

Adj.TTMP/BofHuaHong

2.8x

1.6x

0.9x

TTMP/BAverageAverage+1S.D.Average-1S.D.

4.5x

4.0x

3.5x

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

0.5x0.0x

0.3x

WeusepricetotangibleBVPSratioforthevaluation.WeadjustedthetangiblebookvalueonthedayofA-sharelisting(8/7/2023)toreflecttheBV

changeontheA-shareIPOday,whileBloombergdidnotreflectthischangeuntil11/9/2023,thereforeournumbersdiffersfromBloomberg’sdataduring

8/7/2023-11/9/2023.Inaddition,BloombergusewrongtotalsharesoutstandingtocalculateBVPSstartingfrom5/9/2024till8/6/2024,sowebelievetheirlatestP/BforHshareisincorrect.

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT18:HuaHongrevenueprojection&YoY

HuaHongRevenue&YoYgrowth

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

80%

USDbn

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

27%

70%

70%

4.13.7

60%

52%

50%

3.1

40%

2.5

21%

20%

2.5

2.4

30%

2.3

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

11%

2.0

20%

3%

1.0

0%

0.9

1.6

10%

-8%

-12%

0%

-10%

-20%

RevYoYgrowth

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT19:HuaHonggrossprofit&GPM

USDbn

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

34%

21%

0.80.5

10%

0.2

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.3

15%

12%

0.7

19%

0.6

14%

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

HuaHongGrossprofit&GPM

30%

24%

GrossprofitGPM

28%

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP13

EXHIBIT20:HuaHongoperatingprofit&OPM

USDbn

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

23%

2%

0%

0.1

-0.1-6%

0.1

0.6

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.0

-40%.0

-0.2

15%

.11%

口

7%

-8%

HuaHongopeartingprofit&OPM

7%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

OperatingprofitOPM

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT21:HuaHongEPS&YoY

HuaHongEPS&YoYgrowth

USD

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

0.19

0.35

162%

72%

0.20

46%

0.15

0.11

-6%

-28%

0.100.080.05

-26%

0.11 0.030.03

-39%

0.400.350.300.25

0.20

0.16

0.13

-45%

0.00

-82%

EPSYoYgrowth

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

EXHIBIT22:In4Q25,eNVM(MCU)sharestartedtorecover,otherdevicetypeflattish

HuaHongRevenuebyPlatform

USDmn

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

7%

10%

9%

9%

5%

8%

16%

3%

12%

7%

37%

23%23%

11%

12%

13%

40%

13%

35%

17%

32%

10%

14%

39%

36%

27%

7%6%

5%5%

9%

10%

7%

11%

9%

12%

6%

7%

14%

6%9%

12%

13%

4%16%

16%

19%

18%

13%

18%

5%15%13%

13%

12%12%

26%26%

18%

18%

5%

16%

20%

34%30%

40%20%

14%

21%22%

28%

25%

9%11%

9%10%10%

16%

13%

14%

17%

16%

14%

33%

31%

31%

42%

32%31%31%

26%

27%

30%29%

16%16%

33%34%

11%15%14%13%

38%40%39%36%

13%

15%

38%34%

37%

34%

35%

34%38%

38%33%

31%

40%39%37%40%

38%35%36%40%

36%34%35%35%

31%30%28%26%

24%28%

25%25%

26%29%25%25%

24%25%25%

11%

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

ueNVMDiscreteuAnalog&PMLogic&RFUStandaloneNVM

Others

Source:Companyreports,Bernsteinanalysis

QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

1April2026

CHINASEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP14

EXHIBIT23:Shareofdifferentendmarketsremainedstablein3Q25

HuaHongRevenuebyEndMarket

USDmn

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

18%20%24%27%

29%31%

19%

20%

12%11%9%8%

28%

23%

24%

22%

23%

22%23%

11%

19%15%

13%

10%11%30%

12%

13%

13%12%

12%13%

21%20%22%

19%25%26%

17%

20%

20%

14%

15%

65%

12%

18%

10%11%10%11%

20%

14%12%10%4%

25%

9%

25%17%

14%12%

66%62%

64%

66%65%62%

58%55%57%

55%

63%