伯恩斯坦-印度策略：不要忽视盈利影响-这不仅仅是一个宏观事件-India Strategy Don't ignore the earnings impact - it is not just a macro event

6April2026

IndiaStrategy

IndiaStrategy:Don'tignoretheearningsimpact-itisnotjustamacroevent

VenugopalGarre

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NikhilArela

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Overdependenceisrisky,andworsewhenit’sonsomethingbeyondone’scontrol.India’sstruggletocutcrudereliancereflectsentrenchedcorporaterealities,notlackofintent.Themacroimpactofoilisknown,butitsearningsflowthroughislessclear.Thisreportmaps

thattop-downmath.

India’sAchilles’Heel?:India’sbestyearsineconomichistoryhaveoftencomewithcrudeatsustainablelevels-below$90abarrel.Evenmorestarkly,India’sworstyearsandwhenitsstatusasafuturesuperpowerhascomeunderseverequestioning,haveoccurredwhencrudehassurged-beit1991,2011-13ortosomeextentdevelopingtoday.Overthe

threedecadessincethe1990s,Indiahasstubbornlyheldontoitsimportdependence.Therelianceonimportsforitsenergyneedswasat67%in2000.Itwas75%aftertheGFC

leadinguptothetapertantrumyears.Today,itsitsat89%.ReasonenoughweoftenseeIndiancurrencyasamongtheworstperformerswheneversuchcrisistimescome.

Crudegoesbeyondmacro:Mostofthetimeweseecrudebeingdiscussed,itiscited

moreasamacrovariable:onethatcanshifttheBalanceofPaymentsoutofIndia’sfavorandultimatelyimpacttheGDPgrowth.However,crudehasadeeperplay:OMCsbenefitwhencrudeisdown,sodostaples,aviationandchemicalsorpharma.Ontheotherhand,crudeproducingandexplorationcompaniesbenefitwhencrudesurges.Therupeefactortoocomesintoplay-asitsdepreciationtendstofavorITcompaniesearningprimarilyindollars.Sothequestionathandis:isn’tcrudegoingmuchbeyondmacro,andimpactingearningsofNSElistedcompanies?

TheNiftyearnings’math:Sowhatactuallyhappens?Wedidacompleteregressionof

quarterlyNiftyearningswithquarterlyaveragecrudeprice(~80periods)anddetermined

apeculiarrelationship.Toolowvaluesofcrudearen’tdesirable-theearningsincrease

steeplytillwereacharound$50ofcrude.$55-60iswhenitallpeaksandthere’sagradualdownwardslopefromthere-averagingarateof~0.5%earningsdeclineper$5increaseincrudeprices.Somewhatinterestingisaslightincreasearound$80-90mark,which

couldbeduetoalateresurgenceinenergy(~21%EPScontributionintotal,bulkofitfromrefinersandproductioncompaniesnotOMCs)andITsector(8%ofNiftyEPS)earnings.

Buttheirimpacteventuallyfadesandthenegativesfromothersectorsdominatesas

afterwards,it’salldownhillrathersteep-around2%decreaseforeach$5increasein

crudeprices.Wefurthercorroboratetheseobservationsfrombottomupvaluesobservedineachsector.

CrudedoesbearadisproportionateimpactonIndiaInc’searnings-andwhileitenjoysarelativelywider“sweetspot”of$45-$90,thetripledigitvaluesarewhereitstartsto

deteriorateratherquickly.ThisisastarkreminderofthedetrimentaleffectsalongwarintheMiddleEastcanhavenotjustonthemacrobutonbottom-upearningsaswell.

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.

FirstPublished:06Apr202602:00UTCCompletionDate:05Apr202619:06UTC

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DETAILS

India’scrudeoildependencyhasonlyheadednorthward,andwiththetensionsbetweenIranandUS/Israelnowpastamonth,itbecomesimportanttoseeifcrudeisjustcreatinganissuewithcurrentaccountandrupee,orisgoingdeeperandhurtingevencorporateearnings.Andifitis,towhatextent.That’swhatwediginthisnote.

EXHIBIT1:India’simportdependencyforitscrudeoilneeds

India'sImportedCrudeasaproportionoftotalCrudeConsumption

90%87.5%

85.0%85.3%

85%82.7%

80.0%

80%77.4%

75.1%75.9%

75%71.9%73.3%

69.4%

70%67.6%68.2%

65%

60%

88.5%

Source:PPAC,BernsteinAnalysis

NIFTYCONSTITUENTSARENOTTHESAMEASITSEPSCONSTITUENTS

Niftyindexconstituentsarefairlywellknown-financialsformsaroundathirdwithenergy,ITandindustrialsfollowingat8-10%.However,thingschangesignificantlywhenwelookhowNifty’searningsarecontributedbythesesectors.Whenitcomesto

earnings,financialstakesanoverwhelmingpieatover50%,andEnergybecomesquitebigat21%.ITretainsits8%weight,

whileautos,healthcareandcementsignificantlydiminishinimportance.ItisimportanttokeepthisnuanceinmindwhilelookingatsensitivityofNifty50earnings.

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EXHIBIT2:NiftyIndexcompositionbysectors

Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinAnalysis

EXHIBIT3:NiftyEPSconstituentsbysectors

CalculatedbyfreefloatmarketcapweightedearningsforeachsectorintheNiftyIndex-asforlastcompletedfinancialyear(FY25)Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinAnalysis

THEBOTTOM-UPRATIONALE-WHYNIFTYEARNINGSSHOULDBEPROTECTEDINALARGEBAND

ThedirectcrudelinkageintheNiftyindexisnotveryhigh-thisisunlesscrudestartstouchingextremeswhereotherfactors

likerupee,inflation,remittancesandgovernmentpoliciesstarthavinganimpact.So,ifoneweretoconsiderafairlymanageable

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cruderange-say$60to$90abarrel-wehavefinancialsconstitutinghalfoftheindexearningswhichshouldnothavemuchofanimpact-infacttheprobabilityofratecutsgoingoutthewindowcanevenhelpNIMsstayelevated.EnergyinNifty,

interestingly,includesbothexploratoryandproductioncompanieslikeONGC(whichtendtobenefitwithrisingcrude)aswellasOMCswhichtendtoexperiencelossesascrudegoesup.DownstreamrefinerslikeReliancehaveamixedeffect,sincetheyhavealargeexportexposurewhichoffsetslosses.

Apartfromthat,thenexthighestweightisITwhichtendstogainascrudeincheshighergiventherupeeweakening.Themajorproblemthencomestotheconsumersectors-whichmake6-7%byearningsandPharma/Cement/Chemicalswhichare

dependentonimports-whichmakeupanother2%.Theremaining10%isbyIndustrials,TelecomandUtilities-whichdotakesomehitintheformoflogisticscosts.SowehavealmosthalftheNiftyearnings(Financials)unimpacted,8-9%(IT)whichcanseeaslightincreasewithcrudemovementfrom60to90,andtheremaining40%whichcanseeearningsgrowthdeclining,perhapsby10%withinthisbandofcrudemovement,givencostincreasesandsomedemanddestructionwithinflation.

Allinall,whatweexpectedgoingintoourdetailedregressionofNiftyearningsandcrudepriceswasaverygradualrelationshipwithoilinthe60-90dollarsrange,perhaps3-4%hittoNifty’slongtermEPSgrowth-whichhasaveraged10-11%.Soyoucangofrom11%growthto7%growthwhenoilinchesfrom$60to$90perbarrel.Thiscomesouttobearound1%sensitivitytocrudemovements.Moreextrememovementsaredifficulttopredictsincemanyvariablescomeintopicture.Butwecertainly

hopedthesensitivitywilldouble.Soover$90abarrelwewouldperhapssee2-3%declineinNiftyearningsforevery$10riseincrude.

OURSTUDY-WHATWECONSIDERED

Werealizedafewminutesintotheregressionthatitwillnotbestraightforwardandsimple.Forstarters,theEPShasanaturalprogressionwithtimesogrowthvaluesneedtobetaken,andthebestfrequencywehaveavailableisquarterly,whichwe

mappedwiththequarterlyaveragebrentcrudeprice.Butearningsataquarterlevelarealsoveryvolatiletocrisisotherthan

crude-wehadtheGFC,COVIDperiod,tapertantrumandotherdomesticissues(GST,ILFScrisis)wheremarketsdidsufferforsometime.Moreover,theultralowbaseatthesetimesartificiallyinflatedtheEPSgrowthnumbersinthefollowingquarters.

Hence,thefirstadjustmentwedidwastoremovetheextremeyears(GFCandCOVIDprimarily),andtakethefollowingyeargrowthvaluesasaCAGRoverprecedingyears,eliminatingthebaseeffect.

Thesecondiscruderelationshipwithearningsisn’tlinear,aswehadalreadydetermined.Weexpectthesensitivitytobelow

withinabandandincreaseathigherbands.Hence,justasingleindependentvariablewouldn’tdojustice,whiletakingmore

variablescanunderstatetheeffect(egGDPgrowthorUSDINRcaninturnbeimpactedbycrudeprices).So,weendeduptakingmore“completelycrude”variables,withtheintentthatthenetimpactwillbesummedupforthosevariablesinordertoseethetruerelationshipofNiftywithcrude.

Weconsideredasweetspotforcrude(initially60-80butkeptrefiningtoseewhatexplainsbest)andoneofourvariablessolelydeterminedthedeviationofaveragecrudepricesfromthisrange,theothervariablewassettooneifcrudewasinthis“sweetspot”.Ournexttwovariablesweretocheckforextremecases.Theywereassignedvaluesoncecrudecrossedtheextremes

(above$90orbelow$50)andwerezerootherwise.

Withourfivedifferentvariablesinthepicture,westartedaregressionon~80datapointsfrom2003to2025(GFCandCOVIDexcluded).

THERESULT-INDIAHASALARGE“SWEETSPOT”FORCRUDE

Thefirstthingthatsurpriseduswastheextentofthe“lowsensitivity”zone.PuttingtheregressioncoefficientsandcalculatingNiftyEPSgrowth.Extremelylowcrudepricesareofcourse,detrimentaltoearningsgiventheyhappentocoincidewithaverylowdemandphase(egCOVID)andalsobecauseitisterriblefortheenergysectorandfortheremittancesfromnearly9millionworkersintheGulfcontributingtonearly40%oftransferstoIndia.

Ascruderisesfromtheselevels,theideallevelofsustainableinflationandindustrialactivityisreachedandweseeapeak

around55dollarsofcrudeperbarrel.TheregressiondoespredictanarrowingofEPSgrowthoncecrudemoveshigherfrom

here,butthere’saslightriseagainatthe$85-$90range.Thisisthelevelwhenrupeestartsweakening,helpingITandoil

productioncompanies(aswellasexporters)seeimprovingmargins-allthiswhileinflation,thoughrisingisstillmanageableanddomesticdemandisnotkilled.Overall,onanaverageweseeanarrowdecline(~1%)per10dollarsofcruderisefrom$50to

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$90levels.

EXHIBIT4:Whatregressiontellsus:NiftyEPSgrowthandBrentCruderelationshipbasedonhowEPShasmovedhistoricallywithcrudeprices

NiftyEPSGrowthYoY

0%

20253035404550556065707580859095100105110115120125

BrentCrudePrice($/bbl)

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

Valuescalculatedareaspertheregressionequationssmoothenedoutfor$5gapsincrudeprices.Thebroaddirectionsareplottedthrougharrowkeys,whilethelocalnuancesareduetotheindividualpositioningofscatterplotsandcanbeexplainedbybottom-upnuances

Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinAnalysis

Beyond$90iswhenthedeclinesteepensandthingsworsen.Theinflationstartseatingintothesavings,impactingspend

whichgetsespeciallybadforconsumersectors.Rupeeweakensfartoomuch,furtherimpactingimportdependentsectorslikepharma,cement,paints,etc.Furthermore,aslogisticscostsurge,eventhemarginsarehitalongwithreduceddemand.Asa

result,weseearound4%declineper$10ofcrudeincreasingbeyondthe$90abarrelrate.Bythetimeithits$120-125levels,allNiftyearningsvirtuallyerode.

SECTORALANALYSIS-THETHESISHOLDSUP

Wecross-checkedourthesisbyrunningtheregressionforeachsectoralearnings.Whilenotasstraightforward,givenalot

ofextremevaluesbottom-upfromsectorsandnotenoughdataavailabilityinmanysectors,wedoseearoughcalculationofhowthesebottomuptrendscontributetotheoverallNiftyearnings.Mostsectorsmaxoutat$55-$60whichexplainsourfirstpeak.Somesectorsdoseealateresurgence-especiallyenergyandIT,whichexplainstheshorterpeakaround$85-90crude.Thereafter,weseearapiddeclineacrosssectorswhichdoesnotholduptothebenefitsseeninEnergyandIT-leadingtothefinalfallinNiftyEPS.

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EXHIBIT5:Bottom-uptrendsacrosssectors’earningsalongwithcrudeprice

Thelinesarenotdrawntoexactscalegiventhelargevariationinnumberofdatapointsavailableacrossindividualsectorsandtendencyofextremevalues.Thesearesmoothenedoutcurvesthatdepictthetrendobservedacrosssectorearnings

Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinAnalysis

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DISCLOSUREAPPENDIX

I.REQUIREDDISCLOSURES

Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe“Firm”inthesedisclosuresrelatetothefollowingentities:BernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLC

(April1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein&Co.,LLC(preApril1,2024),BernsteinAutonomousLLP,BSGFranceS.A.(April1,

2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司,SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,Sanford

C.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited(SEBIregistrationno.INH000006378),SanfordC.Bernstein(Singapore)PrivateLimited,

SanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)andanalystsemployedbySociétéGénérale

AfricaTechnologies&ServicestoproduceBernsteinresearchunderaGlobalServicesAgreementinplacebetweenBernstein

andSociétéGénérale.

BernsteinispartofajointventurebetweenSociétéGénérale(SG)andAllianceBernstein,L.P.(AB).Unlessspecificallynotedotherwise,forpurposesofthesedisclosures,referencestoBernstein’s“affiliates”relatetobothSGandABandtheirrespectiveaffiliates.

RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION

EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS

Bernsteinbrand

TheBernsteinbrandratesstocksbasedonforecastsofrelativeperformanceforthenext12monthsversustheS&P500forstockslistedontheU.S.andCanadianexchanges,versustheBloombergEuropeDevelopedMarketsLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexEUR(EDME)forstockslistedontheEuropeanexchangesandemergingmarketsexchangesoutsideoftheAsiaPacificregion,versustheBloombergJapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexUSD(JPL)forstockslistedontheJapaneseexchanges,andversustheBloombergAsiaex-JapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndex(ASIAX)forstockslistedontheAsian(ex-Japan)exchanges-unlessotherwisespecified.

TheBernsteinbrandhasthreecategoriesofratings:

•Outperform:Stockwilloutpacethemarketindexbymorethan15pp

•Market-Perform:Stockwillperforminlinewiththemarketindextowithin+/-15pp

•Underperform:Stockwilltrailtheperformanceofthemarketindexbymorethan15pp

CoverageSuspended:CoverageofacompanyundertheBernsteinresearchbrandhasbeensuspended.Ratingsandpricetargetsaresuspendedtemporarily,arenolongercurrent,andshouldthereforenotbereliedupon.

NotRated:Aratingassignedwhenthestockcannotbeaccuratelyvalued,ortheperformanceofthecompanyaccuratelypredicted,atthepresenttime.Thecoveringanalystmaycontinuetopublishresearchreportsonthecompanytoupdateinvestorsoneventsanddevelopments.

NotCovered(NC)denotescompaniesthatarenotundercoverage.

Bernsteinbrandstockratingsarebasedona12-monthtimehorizon.

Autonomousbrand–commonstocks

TheAutonomousbrandratescommonstocksasindicatedbelow.AsourbenchmarksweusetheBloombergEurope500BanksAndFinancialServicesIndex(BEBANKS)andBloombergEuropeDevMktFinancialsLargeandMidCapPriceRetIndexEUR(EDMFI)indexfordevelopedEuropeanbanksandPayments,theBloombergEurope500InsuranceIndex(BEINSUR)forEuropeaninsurers,theS&P500andS&PFinancialsforUSbanksandPaymentscoverage,S5LIFEforUSInsurance,theS&PInsuranceSelectIndustry(SPSIINS)forUSNon-LifeInsurerscoverage,andtheBloombergEmergingMarketsFinancialsLarge,MidandSmallCapPriceReturnIndex(EMLSF)foremergingmarketbanksandinsurersandPayments.Ratingsarestatedrelativetothesector(notthemarket).

TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofcommonstockratings:

•Outperform(OP):Stockwilloutpacetherelevantindexbymorethan10pp

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•Neutral(N):Stockwillperforminlinewiththemarketindextowithin+/-10pp

•Underperform(UP):Stockwilltrailtheperformanceoftherelevantindexbymorethan10pp

CoverageSuspended:CoverageofacompanyundertheAutonomousresearchbrandhasbeensuspended.Ratingsandpricetargetsaresuspendedtemporarily,arenolongercurrent,andshouldthereforenotbereliedupon.

NotRated:Aratingassignedwhenthestockcannotbeaccuratelyvalued,ortheperformanceofthecompanyaccuratelypredicted,atthepresenttime.Thecoveringanalystmaycontinuetopublishresearchreportsonthecompanytoupdateinvestorsoneventsanddevelopments.

Thosedenotedas‘Feature’(e.g.,FeatureOutperformFOP,FeatureUnderOutperformFUP)areourcoreideas.NotCovered(NC)denotescompaniesthatarenotundercoverage.

Autonomousbrandcommonstockratingsarebasedona12-monthtimehorizon.

Autonomousbrand–preferredstocks

TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofpreferredstockratings:

•Outperform(OP):Thetotalreturnofthepreferredinstrumentisexpectedtooutperformpreferredsecuritiesofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

•Neutral(N):Thetotalreturnofthepreferredinstrumentisexpectedtoperforminlinewithpreferredsecuritiesofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

•Underperform(UP):Thetotalreturnofthepreferredinstrumentisexpectedtounderperformpreferredsecuritiesofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

Autonomouspreferredstockratingsarebasedona6-monthtimehorizon.

AUTONOMOUSCREDITRESEARCH

Wherethisreportcontainsinvestmentrecommendationsforcreditinstruments,asdefinedinarticle3(1)(35)oftheMarketAbuseRegulation,theinformationbelowispresentedtocomplywithitsdisclosurerequirements.

Thereportmayalsoincludereference(s)topublishedopinionsbyotherAutonomousorBernsteinanalystscoveringtheequitysecuritiesoftheissuer(s)referencedherein.Pleasenoteaninvestmentrecommendationforcreditinstrumentspublishedbytheauthor(s)ofthisreportmaydifferfromthepublishedviewoftheanalystcoveringequitysecuritiesfortheissuer(s)containedinthisreportandviceversa.

CREDITRATINGSDEFINITIONS

TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofcreditratings:

•CreditOutperform(C-OP):ThetotalreturnoftheReferenceCreditInstrumentisexpectedtooutperformthecreditspreadofbondsofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

•CreditNeutral(C-N):ThetotalreturnoftheReferenceCreditInstrumentisexpectedtoperforminlinewiththecreditspreadofbondsofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

•CreditUnderperform(C-UP):ThetotalreturnoftheReferenceCreditInstrumentisexpectedtounderperformthecreditspreadofbondsofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

Autonomouscreditratingsarebasedona6-monthtimehorizon.

Alistofallinvestmentrecommendationsproducedbytheauthor(s)ofthisreportalongsidecreditratingshistoryareavailableuponrequest.

ItisatthesolediscretionoftheFirmastowhentoinitiate,updateandceaseresearchcoverage.TheFirmhasestablished,maintainsandreliesoninformationbarrierstocontroltheflowofinformationcontainedinoneormoreareas(i.e.theprivateside)

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withintheFirm,andintootherareas,units,groupsoraffiliates(i.e.publicside)oftheFirm

DISTRIBUTIONOFEQUITYRATINGS/INVESTMENTBANKINGSERVICES

EquityRating

MarketAbuse

Regulation(MAR)andFINRARatingCategory

GlobalRatingDistribution

InvestmentBankingRelationships*

Outperform

BUY

51.1%

16.5%

Market-Perform(BernsteinBrand)Neutral(AutonomousBrand)

HOLD

36.3%

17.8%

Underperform

SELL

12.6%

14.9%

*ThesefiguresrepresentthepercentageofcompanieswithineachequityratingcategoryforwhichaffiliatesofBernsteinhaveprovidedinvestmentbankingserviceswithintheprevious12months.

AsofMarch31,2026.Allfiguresareupdatedquarterly.

OTHERMATTERS

Thelegalentity(ies)employingtheanalyst(s)listedinthisreport,andtheirlocation,canbedeterminedbythecountrycodeoftheirphonenumber,asfollows:

+1BernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLC;NewYork,NewYork,USA+44BernsteinAutonomousLLP;LondonUK

+212SociétéGénéraleAfricaTechnologies&Services;Casablanca,Morocco

+33BSGFranceS.A.;Paris,France

+34BSGFranceS.A.;Madrid,Spain

+41BernsteinAutonomousLLP;Geneva,Switzerland

+49BSGFranceS.A.;Frankfurt,Germany

+91SanfordC.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited;Mumbai,India

+852SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司;HongKong,China+65SanfordC.Bernstein(Singapore)PrivateLimited;Singapore

+81SanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK;Tokyo,Japan

Wherethisreporthasbeenpreparedbyresearchanalyst(s)employedbyanon-USaffiliate,suchanalyst(s),is/are(unlessotherwiseexpresslynotedbelow)notregisteredasassociatedpersonsofBernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLCoranyotherSEC-registeredbroker-dealerandarenotlicensedorqualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.Accordingly,suchanalyst(s)maynotbesubjecttoFINRA’srestrictionsregarding(amongotherthings)communicationsbyresearchanalystswithasubjectcompany,interactionsbetweenresearchanalystsandinvestmentbankingpersonnel,participationbyresearchanalystsinsolicitationandmarketingactivitiesrelatingtoinvestmentbankingtransactions,publicappearancesbyresearchanalysts,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

Wherethisreporthasbeenpreparedbyresearchanalyst(s)employedbySociétéGénéraleAfricaTechnologies&Services(partoftheSociétéGénéralegroupofcompanies),ithasbeenpreparedonbehalfofaBernsteincompanyunderaGlobalServicesAgreementinplacebetweenBernsteinandSociétéGénérale.

CERTIFICATION

Eachresearchanalystlistedinthisreport,whoisprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationofthecontentofthisreport,certifiesthatalloftheviewsexpressedinthispublicationaccuratelyreflectthatanalyst'spersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubject

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securitiesorissuersandthatnopartofthatanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsin