中国汽车：海外新能源车机遇和可能带来的风险（摘要）-2026.1.20

202G年1月20日|5:1GPMCST中国汽车海外新能源车机遇和可能带来的风险(摘要)建立框架评估未来海外价格竞争我们预计海外市场将成为今年中国电动汽车销售的亮点，销量将同比增长35%。同时我们认为，中国整车厂在刚刚进入海外市场时可能会采取更高端的定价策略，之后再通过降价/促销来提升销量，与在泰国市场的情况相似。为了解潜在的价格竞争，我们建立了一个评估海外市场潜在降价的框架：(1)汽车市场是否处于收缩期？(2)中国整车厂的渗透率是否较高？(3)是否存在过剩产能？我们认为泰国市场同时符合这三个条件，而目前没有其他市场同时符合这三个条件。因此，我们认为短期内其他地区不太可能出现相似的降价。然而，我们也认识到汽车行业具有周期性而且未来本地化生产要求有可能发生变化。今后，如果其他海外市场也开始出现所有这些特点，我们预计相较现金利润率为0%的情形将有1G%-1U%的价格下行空间，但这并非我们的基本情景。中国以外市场的平均售价和利润更高海外市场不仅销量增长更快，平均售价/利润率/利润也高于国内市场。例如，我们看到比亚迪在中国以外销售的同款基础车型的平均售价/毛利率/单车利润分别高出50%-120%/5-10%/M3%-M20%。海外市场增速超越国内市场，新能源汽车大规模普及的市场条件已成熟中国新能源汽车渗透率达到G0%，我们预计202G年同比增速将放缓至11%，而另一方面，海外市场正在进入新能源汽车大规模普及阶段，2025年渗透率与中国2021年的水平相当（即15%）。我们预计202G年海外市场（不含美国）的新能源汽车销量将达到7M0万辆（同比增长21%），中国品牌将贡献55%（即M00万辆）。为满足这一需求，中国整车厂在出口之外，正在建设本地化生产能力。我们预计到2025年底/202G年底，中国整车厂在海外的新能源汽车产能将分别达到U0万/170万辆。在覆盖范围内车企中，我们认为比亚迪（买入）和小鹏汽车（买入）凭借相对较高的海外电动汽车业务占比、待推新出口车型的加速上市以及销售网络的扩张，处于最具优势的位置。*全文翻译随后提供

侯雪婷+8G(21)2M01-8G9M|tina.hou@高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司杜筠+8G(21)2M01-8978|jenny.x.du@高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国FlNª6的注册/合格研究分析师。目录Keythesisincharts3FrameworktoassesspotentialEuturepricecompetitionoverseasMHigher6SPandproffitgeneratedEromoutsideChinaUOverseasgrowthsurpassingdomestic,marketripeEorNEVmass-adoption10BuyBYDandXPengEormoreEavorableoverseasandnewbusinessexposure17lnvestmentThesis22PriceTargetªisks&Methodology22信息披露附录2MKeythesisincharts图表1:WebelievethetworoundsoEpricecutsinThailandweremainlydrivenby1)autoindustrydownturn,2)highpenetrationEromChineseOEMs,and3)excessproductioncapacity资料来源：lHS,MarkLines,公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部图表2:WebuildaErameworktoassesspotentialpricecutinoverseasmarkets:(1)lstheautomarketincontraction?(2)DoChineseOEMshavehighpenetration?(3)lsthereexcessproductioncapacity?Currently,noothermarketshowsallthreeoEtheseparameters,exceptEorThailandinredindicatesconditionsthatmayintensiEypricecompetition,inblackdenotesneutral,andingreenrepresentsconditionsthatlesslikelytriggercompetition.资料来源：lHS,MarkLines,高盛全球投资研究部图表3:lntheEuture,iEotheroverseasmarketsweretostartexhibitingalloEtheseparameters,wecouldsee1G%-1U%downsidetoacashmarginat0%资料来源：汽车之家,Companywebsites,高盛全球投资研究部FrameworktoassesspotentialEuturepricecompetitionoverseasThailandmarketlikelytheexception,ratherthanthenormWeexpecttheoverseasmarkettobethebrightspotEorChinaEVsalesthisyear,with+35%yoyvolumegrowth.6tthesametime,wearecognizantthatChineseOEMscouldadoptamorepremiumpricingwhenffirstenteringtheoverseasmarket,andexecutemorepricecuts/salesincentiveslatertodriveupvolume,similartowhathappenedinThailand.lnordertounderstandthepotentialpricecompetition,webuildaErameworktoassesspotentialpricecutsinoverseasmarkets:(1)lstheautomarketincontraction?(2)DoChineseOEMshavehighpenetration?(3)lsthereproductioncapacity?WebelieveThailandexhibitsallthreeparameters,whilecurrentlynoothermarketshowsallthreeoEtheseparameters.Thailand,oneoEtop20marketsintermsoENEVsalesvolumein2025E(1M1kunits,+83%yoy)withChinesebrands’combinedPVmarketshareat2G%,isusuallytheffirstEorChinaOEMstoexpandoverseas,supportedbyEavorablelocalpoliciesandclosergeographical/culturaltworoundsoEpricereductionsbymajorChineseOEMs(Jul202M&Oct2025)havetriggeredmarketquestions/concernsaboutanongoingpricewarresemblingwhathashappenedinChinasince2023,andthepotentialdestructionoEhigherproffitcurrentlyexistinginoverseasmarkets.图表M:Chinesebrandstook2G%marketshareinThailandPVmarketin2025EThesizeoEbubblerepresentsestimatedNEVretailsalesvolumein2025;MarkLinesdataisupdatedtillOct2025,thereEore,weEorecastNov-Decnumbersbasedonseasonality;3)WecategorizeS6lCMGasEuropeanbrand资料来源：MarkLines,lHS,高盛全球投资研究部

图表5:PricesEorBYDarestillMM%higherthaninChinaonaveragepostpromotionsatendoE2025资料来源：Thairath.co.th,公司数据answerthesequestions,weconductedacasestudyontheChinaNEVOEMsentry&developmentovertheffiveyearsintheThailandmarket,withanalysiscoveringareasoE(1)supportivelocalgovernmentpolicies,(2)OEMentry&productlaunches,(3)volume&marketsharetrajectory,and(M)competition&pricingdynamics.OurstudyshowsaEewEactorscontributedtothetworoundsoEpricereductionsin202M&2025intheThaimarket:ThailandautomarketcontractionwithPVsalesvolume-17%yoyin202M(vs.+2%yoyEorglobalPVvolume)duetoGDPgrowthslowdownandtightenedloanissuance;ChineseOEMcombinedmarketsharereaching1G%/2G%in202M/2025,makingEurtherexpansionincreasinglydifficult;ChineseOEMsunderpressuretomeetlocalproductionrequirementsetoutintheBEV3.0&BEV3.5programs.OutoEthesethreeweseeNo.2increasingChineseOEMmarketshareascommonacrossdifferentoverseasmarkets,whileNo.1industrycontractionandNo.3localproductionrequirementasmoreidiosyncraticEorThailand.6sshownin图表G,wecarryoutcomparisonanalysisonPVmarketdynamicsadoptingtheaEorementionedErameworkincluding(1)lstheautomarketincontraction?(2)DoChineseOEMshavehighpenetration?(3)lsthereproductioncapacity?WeseethatThailandexhibitsallthreeparameters,whilecurrentlynoothermarketshowsallthreeoEtheseparameters.Hence,webelieveThailandislikelyanexception,ratherthanthenormamongoverseasmarkets(automarketcontraction,highestPVmarketshareEromChinesebrands,andovercapacityEromhighlocalproductionrequirement).lndeed,during202M-25,theThaigovernmentextendedthedeadlinetoallowmanuEacturersEailingtomeetBEV3.0requirementstheoptiontotransitiontotheBEV3.5schemestartingin202GbytheendoE202M,andallowedexportvehiclestobecountedas1.5(vs.onlylocallyregisteredvehiclescanbecountedbeEore),torelievetheovercapacityissueinthemarket.Hence,similarpricereductionactivitiesarelesslikelytohappeninthenearterminotheroverseasmarkets,inourview.Wedothatevenwithoutpricingcuts,ChineseEVmodelswillstillpressureglobalOEMsmargins/marketsharegivenrelativepricecompetitivenessoEproducts.图表G:WebuildaErameworktoassesspotentialpricecutsinoverseasmarkets:(1)lstheautomarketincontraction?(2)DoChineseOEMshavehighpenetration?(3)lsthereexcessproductioncapacity?Currently,noothermarketshowsallthreeoEtheseparameters,EorThailandinredindicatesconditionsthatmayintensiEypricecompetition,inblackdenotesneutral,andingreenrepresentsconditionsthatarelesslikelytotriggercompetition.资料来源：lHS,MarkLines,高盛全球投资研究部Forthemarketsunderanalysis,webelieveadescendingorderoEthelikelihoodoEmajorpricereductionswouldbeThailand,lndonesia,Vietnam,Malaysia,andothers.Forexample,thoughlndonesiaexperiencedasimilarindustrycontractionin2023-25,wesawlimitedpricecompetitionduetorelativelylowChineseplayers’marketshare(11%in2025)andlessconcernonovercapacity.Thelndonesiangovernmentalsoimplementedlocalproductionrequirementsincluding1)1:1ratiooEimportedtolocallymadeby202G,and2)M0%oEdomesticcomponentlevelby202G.wesawlocalproductioncapacityEromChineseOEMsremainedundercontrolErom120kunitsin2023to207kunitsin2025(comparedtoG72kunitsPVsalesin2025),unlikelytotriggeroversupplyissuesanytimesoon.ForVietnam,MalaysiaandBrazil,weonlysawCBU(completelybuilt-up)importduties,excisedutiesreductionandencouragementtowardslocalassembly,ratherthanarequiredoEimporttolocallymadeEVs.ThailandCaseStudyªecappingThailandNEVmarketdevelopmentinthelast5years:Policy,Newcomers,Penetration,&CompetitionThailandhaslongbeenregardedastheautomotivehuboESoutheast6sia,playingacrucialroleintheregion’smanuEacturingandexportactivities,per6SE6NBrieffing.6utomotivemanuEacturingEor10%-11%oEthecountry’swithexportsEormingalargechunk(over50%oEproduction).WerecaptheNEVmarketinThailandsince2021,whereitsucceededintheelectrifficationtransition,drivenby(1)supportivegovernmentpolicies,(2)increasingnumberoEnewentrantsandproducts(esp.EromChina),and(3)establishmentoElocalproductionWecategorizethedevelopmentoEThailand’sNEVmarketoverthepastffiveyears(2021-2025)intothreestages:(1)2021-2022:StartoEpolicysupport,(2)2023:6cceleratingelectriffication,and(3)202M-2025:lntensiEyingcompetition.For202G&beyond:weexpectongoingpricecompetitionwithmoreentrantsandhigherlocalproductionratio.图表7:WebelievethetworoundsoEpricecutsinThailandweremainlydrivenby1)autoindustrydownturn,2)highpenetrationEromChineseOEMs,and3)excessproductioncapacity资料来源：lHS,MarkLines,公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部2021-2022:oEpolicysupport:OEMpresence-Backin2021,therewereonly3ChineseOEMsinThailandanditsEVtransitionwasstillattheearlywitha0.M%penetrationSupportivelocalpolices-lnearly2022,theThailandgovernmentannouncedtheBEV3.0program,whichistoadvancingelectricvehiclepenetrationandproduction(includingsubsidies,importtariffsreduction,excisetaxreductionandlocalproductionrequirements).lndustry&competitiondynamics-Overall,theThailandmarketwasatitsearlyoEEVtransition,withNEVpenetrationincreasingto5%by2022andtwomoreChineseplayershavingenteredthemarket(BYDandHozon).2023:6cceleratingelectriffication:Supportivelocalpolices-lnDec2023,Thegovernmentextendeditssupportivepoliciesto2027(Erom2025)throughanewBEV3.5program,providingsubsidiesoE50kto100kbaht(around1,M00to2,800dollars)EorlocallymanuEacturedEVs,whichwouldgraduallyphaseouttill2027,andrequiringacertainleveloElocalproductionasaratiotoimports(importtolocalproductionoE1:2by202Gand1:3by2027).OEMentry&productlaunches-TheseEavorablepoliciesmoreChineseOEMstoentertheThaimarketwithanincreasingnumberoEBEVmodels.WehaveobservedthatthenumberoEChineseOEMsgrewErom5in2022to8in2023,andthenumberoEmodelsofferedbythemincreasedErom21in2022to31in2023.Volume&marketsharetrajectory-asanexample,BYDenteredthemarketin2022andby2023hadalreadygainedG%oEthepassengercarmarketshare,withoverU5%oEthisshareattributedtoitsBEVmodels(i.e.3,Dolphin,Seal).manyChineseOEMstosetuplocalproductioncapacitiesinThailand.6sawhole,NEVpenetrationreached17%inThailandin2023(Erom0.M%/5%in2021/22),whichwebelieveistheffirstyearoEelectrifficationinThailand.图表8:WesawanincreasingnumberoEChineseOEMsentertheThaimarket...

图表U:...aswellasmorecarmodelslaunchedinThailand资料来源：lHS 资料来源：lHS202M-2025:lntensiEyingcompetition:Localpolicies-theBEV3.5program,subsidiespervehiclegraduallydecreasedtoTHB35ktoTHB75kin2025(EromTHB70ktoTHB150kin2022/23).6lso,OEMswererequiredtoachieveaoE1:1/1:1.5oEimportedtolocallymadeEVsbyYE2M/25.OEMentry&productlaunches-Chinesebrandslaunchedmorecarmodels(mainlyPHEVmodels).ThoughPHEVmodelsarenoteligibleEorsubsidies,theycouldstillenjoytariffandexcisetaxbeneffits.WesawthenumberoEvehiclemodelsEromChineseOEMsreach85in2025(vs.31/MUin2023/2M).Forexample,BYDlaunchedSeaLionG/7andSeal5modelsin2025withannualsalesoE3k+unitseach.Volume&marketsharetrajectory-Chinesebrands(excl.S6lCMG)managedtogainmoreshare(2G%in2025Erom13%in2023)despiteThailandautomarketcontractionoE-17%yoyinPVsalesvolumein202M(vs.+2%yoyEorglobalPVvolume)duetotheGDPgrowthslowdownandtightenedloanissuance.Competition&pricingdynamics-Chineseautomakersactivelyestablishedlocalproduction(e.g.BYDcompleteditsThailandplantinJul202M),increasingcapacityEromChineseOEMsto550kunitsin2025(Erom180kunitsin2023),creatingpressureoEsellingmorelocallymadeEVstomeetthelocalproductionrequirementswhichkickedinstarting202M.ThishaslikelyledtotworoundsoEpricereductionsbymajorOEMs(Jul202M&Oct2025)-1)BYDannounceddiscountsoEuptoTHB3M0k(äU,300)inJul202Mperelectrek,aroundthesametimeasitsThailandplantwentintoproduction,2)BYDcutpricesEoritsSealsedanbyupto38%,andS6lCreducedtheMGMhatchbackpriceby27%inOct2025,perBloomberg.relievetheover-capacitypressure,theThailandgovernmentadjusteditspolicytoallowexportedvehiclestobecountedas1.5unitslocallyproducedEVinJul2025(thepreviouspolicyoEonlycountinglocallyregisteredvehicles),perªeuters.202G&beyond:Moremodels&competition:WeexpectmoreChineseOEMstoenterthemarketwithmoreproductofferings,onthebackoEcontinuedNEVpenetrationincrease(inlinewiththeadoptioncurveoEChina’sNEVmarketandglobalsmartphone).BYD’sMSªPpricesinThailandarestillMM%higherthaninChinaonaEtertworoundsoEpricereductions.giventherequirementoEincreasinglocalproductionin202G&2027,whiletheNEVmarketexpansioninneighboringmarketscouldhelptowardsmeetingtherequirement,weexpectongoingpricecompetitioninThailand.图表10:lncreasingnumberoEPHEVmodellaunchesbyBYD

图表11:Meanwhile,Chinesebrandsmanagedtogainmoremarketsharein202M-25,taking2G%marketsharein2025(thehighestamongoverseasmarkets)资料来源：lHS 资料来源：lHS6ssessingpotentialmagnitudeoEpricecutsoverseasThatbeingsaid,wedoacknowledgethenatureoEautoindustrycyclicalityandpotentialchangeinlocalproductionrequirementgoingEorward.lntheEuture,iEotheroverseasmarketsweretoexhibitingalloEtheseparameters,wecouldsee1G%-1U%downsidetoacashmarginat0%,thoughthatisnotourbasecase.6smoreentrantscomein,weassessthepotentialmagnitudeoEpricecutassumingtheOEMsarewillingtogotocashmarginzero(i.e.EBlTD6zero).6slaidoutinourErameworkanalysisabove,webelieveThailandislikelyanexception,ratherthanthenormamongoverseasmarkets(automarketcontraction,highestPVmarketshareEromChinesebrands,andovercapacityEromhighlocalproductionrequirement).Hence,similarpricereductionactivitiesarelesslikelytohappeninthenearterminotheroverseasmarkets,inourview.Thatbeingsaid,therecouldbeautomarketcyclicalitiesindifferentmarketsgoingEorward,andincreasingNEVpenetrationtogetherwithChineseOEMsgrowingmarketsharemayleadtointensiffiedcompetition.lnaddition,iEmorelocalgovernmentssetoutlocalproductionrequirements,thiscouldraisetheriskoEovercapacity.BasedonouroverseasEactoryEreecash½owmodels,iEweassumetheOEMsarewillingtogotocashmarginzero(i.e.EBlTD6zero),therecouldbe1G%-1U%pricecutpotentialintheEuture(图表12).图表12:6ssumingtheOEMsarewillingtogotocashmarginzero(i.e.EBlTD6zero),therecouldbe1G%-1U%pricecutpotentialintheEuture资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部Higher6SPandproffitEromoutsideChina NotonlyistheoverseasmarkettakingonmoreintermsoEvolume,6SP/margin/proffitisalsosuperiorcomparedwiththedomesticmarket.Forexample,weseeBYDearns50%-120%/5-10%/M3%-M20%higher6SP/grossmargin/unitproffitEorthesamebasemodelsoldoutsideChina.OuranalysisshowsthatBYD’soverseasEactoriescouldsustainablyhighunitproffitoEªmb20k+despitehigher(incl.BOM/labor/energy/productionEacilitiesandmachineries)aEterachieving80%+utilization-weestimateBYD’sChina/Thailand/Brazil/HungaryEactorytogeneratevehicleunitproffitoEªmbMk-Gk/20k-21k/2Mk-27k/28k-30kduring2027E-2030E.图表13:Pricepremiumassumption 图表1M:Costassumptioncomparison资料来源：汽车之家,Companywebsites,高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：Numbeo,高盛全球投资研究部图表15:Unitproffitcomparison 图表1G:UnitFCFcomparison资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部WithlocalizedEactoriesstartingvolumeproduction,weconductanillustrativeproffitabilityandFCFanalysisEorBYDEactorieswith150kunitsoEannualproductioncapacityindifferentlocations:(1)productionandsoldinChina;(2)productioninThailandandsoldin6SE6N;(3)productioninBrazilandsoldinSouth6merica;(M)productioninHungaryandsoldinEU.Ouranalysesintoconsiderationdifferentvehiclesellingpricesinthecurrentmarket,capexrequirementonland,building,machinesandEacilities,moldandtooling,aswellasequipment;differentbill-oE-materialandlabortaxaswellasdifferentoperatingexpensesintheoEglobaloperation.DespiteourEorecastsEoranarrowingpricepremiumintheoverseasmarketsvs.domesticmarket,ouranalysisshowsthatoverseasEactoriescouldstillgeneratehealthyunitproffitoEªmb17k-21k+in2030E.WenotetheanalysisisillustrativeinnatureandarangeoEoutcomesexistbeyondwhatwepresenthere.Overseasgrowthsurpassingdomestic,marketripeEorNEVmass-adoptionOverseasmarkettorepresentMU%oEincrementalNEVdemandin202GE6sChina’sNEVpenetrationreachesG0%andgrowthslowsdownto11%yoyin202GE(perGSe),theoverseasmarket-ontheotherhand-isenteringintotheNEVmass-adoptionphase,withthe2025penetrationresemblingChina’slevelin2021(i.e.15%),whichwasEollowedby3yearsoE>10%penetrationhike(seemorehere).Weexpect7.MmnunitsoENEVsalesinoverseasmarkets(ex-US)in202GE,andChinabrandstoEulffill55%oEthevolume(i.e.Mmn).WeEorecastoverseasNEVvolumegrowthoE21%yoyin202GE,accountingEorMU%oEincrementalT6Mglobally(vs.ChinaaccountingEor53%).USNEVsaleshasbeendeclining,andourUSautoanalystmodelsNEVpenetrationtotrenddowntoU%in202GEErom10%in2025E,accountingEor-2oEglobalincrementaldemand(see17).图表17:Weexpect7.MmnunitsoENEVsalesinoverseasmarkets(ex-US)in202GE(+21%yoy),accountingEorMU%oEincrementalT6Mglobally,withChinabrandstoEulffill55%oEthevolume(i.e.Mmn)资料来源：MarkLines,lHS,高盛全球投资研究部图表18:ChinaPVexportEorecast 图表1U:ChinaNEVexportEorecast资料来源：中国汽车工业协会,高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会,高盛全球投资研究部图表20:ChinaPVoverseassalesvolumebyregion 图表21:ChinaPVoverseassalesbreakdwonbyregion资料来源：中国汽车工业协会,高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：中国汽车工业协会,高盛全球投资研究部ChinabrandsgainingmarketshareandrisingtothetopwithcompetitiveproductsandchannelexpansionWeanalyzethetop20marketsbytheir2025NEVsalesvolume.ExcludingChinaandUS,thetwobiggestmarkets,the18marketshaveacombinedmarketsizeoEM.5mnunitsandgrewM0%yoylastChinesebrandshaveenteredintothemajorityoEthesemarkets,andhaverisentothetop3inG(Spain,Thailand,Brazil,6ustralia)outoEthe18markets,rankingNumber1inThailand,Brazil,and6ustraliaamongNEVbrands.LastChineseNEVbrandsasawholegainedmarketshareinalmostalloEtheseoverseasmarkets,especiallydoubledigitmarketsharegainsindevelopedmarketssuchasUK(11%),Spain(18%),ltaly(1M%),and6ustralia(22%).图表22:Chineseautobrandshavebeenenteringmoreoverseasmarketsandgainingmarketshare...资料来源：MarkLines,乘联会,高盛全球投资研究部WebelievetherisingmarketshareoEChinesebrandshasbeenmainlydrivenbyanincreasingnumberoEmodelofferingscombinedwithexpansionoEsalesmainlythroughdistributors.Duringthelasttwoyears,wesaw75newmodelslaunchedintheoverseasmarkets,with2,000-3,000salesEootprintbysomeoEthetopOEMs.Forexample,BYDlaunched11newvehiclemodelsin2025(vs.G/7in2023/202M)intooverseasmarkets.ThesemodelsarecompetitiveagainstthecurrenttopsellingEoreignmodelstoourproductcompsanalysis,withatonespec(pricing/size/range)rankingNo.1(seemorehere).图表23:SealUproductcompsanalysisNote:ScoresEorPrice/ªange/Sizeranktheffivemodelswith5beingthehighest资料来源：Companywebsites,lHSGloballnsight,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGloballnvestmentªesearch图表2M:SeaLion07productcompsanalysis资料来源：Companywebsites,lHS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGloballnvestmentªesearch图表25:DolphinMini/SurEproductcompsanalysis资料来源：Companywebsites,lHS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGloballnvestmentªesearchGoinginto202G,withthepotentialdeclineinthedomesticpassengervehiclemarketandongoingpricing&marginpressures(China6utomobiles:202Gmgmtoutlookcallseries:6ggressiveonvolumegrowthwhilecautiousonmargins),ChinaautoOEMsaregenerallyEocusingmoreontheoverseasmarket,withanmodellaunchpipelineandcontinuedsalesnetworkexpansionplans.e.g.BYDaimsEor1,000Europeanoutletsby2025endanddoublethatin202G,plusbuildingproductionEacilitiesinkeyregions(i.e.Hungary);XPengtoestablishdedicated,localizedsupplychainteamsinEuropeand6SE6Nin202G,deepeningits“lnLocal,ForLocal”andbuildingonitsexistingoverseasproductions(EollowedbythethirdoverseasEactoryinMalaysiaannouncedinDec2025).图表2G:ChinaexportexposurebyOEMWeuseC66MexportdatatorepresentoverseassalesvolumeEorChery,G6C,XPeng,Leapmotorasthecompaniesdonotdiscloseoverseassalesvolume.资料来源：公司数据,中国汽车工业协会,高盛全球投资研究部ProductionlocalizationtomeetgovernmentrequirementandmitigatetariffrisksWithgrowingoverseasexposureandrisingtariffratesinsomeoEthesemarkets,Chinaautomakersaremovingtoadoptlocalizedproduction,tomeetlocalgovernmentdemandandmitigatethetariffrisks.Basedonouranalysis,weexpect0.Umn/1.7mnNEVproductioncapacityoverseasbyend-2025/202GE.lnotherwords,weestimatetherewouldbe2.1mnlocalizedproductioncapacityestablishedbymajorChineseOEMsbyend202G,againstG.5mnoverseassalesvolumebythesecompanies,ora33%localizationlntermsoEgeographicbreakdown,(1)6siaPaciffic:1.5mn(orGU%)oEthecapacityareplannedEor6siaPaciffic,mainlyinThailandandVietnam,EollowedbyMalaysiaandlndonesia;(2)Europe:320k(or15%)willbebuiltinEurope,mainlyHungaryandSpain;(3)Latin6merica:350k(or1G%)isplannedEorLatin6merica,allinBrazil.图表27:Weestimatetherewouldbe2.1mnlocalizedproductioncapacityestablishedbymajorChineseOEMsbyend202G,againstG.5mnoverseassalesvolumebythesecompanies,ora33%localization资料来源：公司数据,Customsdata,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGloballnvestmentªesearchTheOEMsarealsotakingdifferentapproachesintermsoEaddinglocalwitharelativelyevensplitbetweengreenffieldEactoryconstructionandpartnershipwiththirdparties.WhileBYDistakingapuregreenffieldapproach,consideringitsvolumesizeandEullcontroloEtheprocess,alotoEotherOEMsaretakingarelativelyasset-lightroute,e.g.XPengcollaborateswithMagnalnternational,usingitsGraz,6ustriaplantEorlocalassemblyoEGGandGUmodelsEorEurope;establishedaJV(LeapmotorlnternationalwithStellantis(51%Stellantis,MU%Leapmotor)tosellanddistributeitsaffordableelectricvehicles,leveragingStellantis’establishedsalesnetworkandproductionEacilities(likeinPolandandSpain)toexpandrapidlyoutsideChina;Cherypartneredwithlocalcompanies(e.g.KGENinThailand,EVMotorsinSpain,C6O6GroupinBrazil)tosetuplocalproductions.ByOEM,CheryhasthelargestoverseasproductionEootprintoE720k,EollowedbyBYDat510k,thenS6lC/GreatWallat250k/215k.BuyandEormoreoverseasandnewbusinessexposure 6mongourwebelieveBYD(Buy)andXPeng(Buy)arerelativelypositionedEortheoverseasexposure,withnewexportmodelpipelinesandsalesnetworkexpansion.BYDmanagedtoranktopthreeinGoutoEthetop18marketsintermsoENEVvolume(excl.USandChina).Meanwhile,BYD/Xpengshouldachieve510k/27kunitsoverseacapacitiesbytheendoE202GE,Eurthersupportingtheir202GoverseassalesoE1.5mn/U0kunitsperourestimates.BYD(Buy)-OverseasmarketstobecomeamajorgrowthdriverWeexpecttheoverseasmarkettobecomeakeygrowthdriveroverthedecadeEorthecompanyandmodelBYD’soverseas(ex-US)salesvolumeat1.5mn-3.5mnin202GE-2035E.WeEorecasta30%earningsC6Gªover2025E-2028E,withoverseasproffitcontributiontoincreaseErom21%in202MtoG0%by2028E,accountingEormorethanhalEoEourvaluation.KeydriversoEoverseasgrowth:NEVpenetrationrampintomass-adoptionphasesupportedbyincreasingmodelsupply:currentlyweseeNEVpenetrationinkeyoverseasmarketsaroundMyearsbehindChina(i.e.2021level)onaverageat1G%.ThisisaroundthestartingpointleveloEmass-adoptionthatweobservedinChinaandweexpecttheoverseasmarkettoEollowChina’s>10%penetrationincrease(i.e.2022-202M)intheupcomingyears.Suchmass-adoptionwillalsobesupportedbyincreasingnewmodelsupply.BYDproductcompetitivenessdrivingmarketsharegain:basedonourproductcompanalysis,BYD’smodelsarehighlycompetitiveinkeyaspectsincludingprice,andsize.GoingEorward,withacomprehensiveportEoliooEmodelsreadilydevelopedinthedomesticmarket,ongoingª&Dinvestment,andexpansionoEsalesnetwork,webelieveBYDiswellpositionedtothetopvolumemarketshareamongglobalNEVcompanies.图表28:WeexpectBYD’soverseassalesvolumetobearound1mn/3mn/3.5mnin2025E/2030E/2035E

图表2U:With6siaPaciffic/Europe/Otherregionscontributingabout1/3oEthevolumeeach 资料来源：lHS,MarkLines,公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：lHS,MarkLines,公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部GoldmanSachs图表30:BYDhasthepotentialtoachieve3.5mn-4.5mnoverseassalesvolumein2035E

资料来源：IHS,MarkLines,公司数据,政府网站,高盛全球投资研究部2026年1月20日 <⌀图表31:BYDffinancialsummary资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部XPeng(Buy)-Strongnewmodelpipelinewithemergingbusinesstostartvolumeproductionin202GWeexpectastrongnewmodelpipelineandsustainabletechnologyrevenuecontributionEromVWtodriveM0%revenuegrowthEorXPengin202GE,improvinggrossmarginEromscaleeconomicsandcontinuedcost-down,continuedª&Dinvestmentandimprovingaccountpayabledays,leadingtoG66PnetincomeoEªmb2.2bn(ffirstEull-yearbreak-even).6lthoughsalesmomentummaybemoderatewithonlyaEewnewmodellaunches,lookingint