瑞银-Q系列：什么推动了全球储能需求激增？-Q-Series：What Is Driving the Surge in Global Battery Storage Demand-20260420

a§ AnnaWebbPoweredPoweredbyUBSEvidenceLaba§2 3 AnnaWebba§3 a§40revisedup2030Eto1.6TWh 婚§5 197197148123102805845202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EBTMGridDuration(hour)GWh3002502001501005005.04.03.02.01.00.0hours6.0a§6 UltiumNCM(posttariff)CathodeAnode(posttariff)Manufacturingcosts92postUSTariff64$/klWh$110-$100%15%30%35%40%45%50%5%4%3%8%7%7%5%4%3%8%7%7%22%21%20%20%($/kWh)170($/kWh)85($/kWh)170($/kWh)853%6%10%0%5%4%3%9%8%23%22%20%21%20%8%6%9%9%8%($/9%8%($/kWh)170($/kWh)864%7%10%-1%-5%6%4%9%7%5%婚§7 ReserveMargin2024A2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EDemandResponsePotential(MW)CAISO26.9%23.0%21.2%15.9%15.1%15.0%13.6%795ERCOT24.0%27.7%33.8%28.2%18.4%14.7%8.1%2,652ISONE20.4%18.8%18.6%18.0%16.2%16.9%14.9%MISO17.3%17.5%15.6%21.5%16.5%15.2%14.3%8,205NWPP29.1%25.2%23.9%22.7%21.3%18.3%15.1%806PJM29.8%26.1%22.3%15.2%15.1%11.2%7.5%7,554SERC33.2%28.7%25.2%23.8%21.6%19.5%16.1%7,42427.4%27.9%27.5%28.0%24.1%23.8%22.6%1,463SRSG19.3%23.4%30.0%26.6%25.5%21.5%16.8%417NYISO17.8%17.9%20.6%22.8%23.8%24.0%23.8%897Total26.5%24.8%23.8%20.9%17.2%15.0%14.6%30,779 a§8MadeinChinaMadeinUS/EU20242024201920212022婚§9 婚§102025Highrenewablespenetration3345017512,53450%33452978737%Lowrenewablespenetration33441752165281525%a§ MktcapUS$bn67.928.117.514.543.88.84.820.716.123.375.625.273.451.7MktcapUS$bn67.928.117.514.543.88.84.820.716.123.375.625.273.451.71,417.841.118.720.0289.4128.38.021.011.1RatingBuyBuyBuyNeutralBuyBuyNeutralBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyNeutralBuyNeutralBuyBuyBuyBuyNeutralNeutralBuyBuyBuyNeutralNeutralBuyBuyBuyBuyNeutralBuyCompanynameLGESSamsungSDILGChemSKInnovationPanasonicAsahiKaseiSyrahLiontownMineralResourcesIGOGanfengLithiumTianqiLithiumAlbemarleGeneralMotorsStellantisHyundaiMotorFordTesla,Inc.NextpowerInc.Grenergy2026E2027EROE2026E2027E2026E2027E500,000640,000484,000120,0003,000.002,040.000.30 2.20 66.00 9.05 74.35 78.30230.00105.00 9.70550,000 15.00352.00140.00130.00 25.00202.00100,000320,000500.00128.00268.00 75.80 43.80 54.00 15.00 61.00 76.00 10.0038.00NotePotent.Upside17%19%32%-7%1%31%150%-1%6%1%-7%17%16%29%30%4%17%-12%26%13% 7%49%-46%-18%16%16%34%10%10%2%-8%23%22%0%7%SectorCurr.price(LC)429,000538,000365,500128,8002,982.501,559.000.12 2.23 62.25 8.94 80.25 66.82197.75 81.32 7.44527,000 12.87400.62111.39115.40 23.39135.20184,200389,500432.50110.20199.61 68.96 39.94 52.86 16.35 49.65 62.53 10.0035.39372x916x22x92x16x12x-2x11x11x9x15x11x18x6x9x12x7x200x22x45x19x15x64x16x22x22x22x23x43x33x23x16x29x57x25xUSLFPESSfirst-moverLeadingnon-ChineseprismaticESSbatterycellproviderValueuppotentialthroughc80%ownershipinLGESBeneficiaryfromUSESSboomNon-Chinesebatterycellprovider,expandingintoBBUmarketJPhigh-performancebatterymaterialsmakerAustralian-basedinnaturalgraphiteminerRampingupKathleenValleymine,advancingexpansionplansDiversifiedleverage(ironore&miningservices)Owning25%ofthebesthardrockmineglobally&s/phaslaggedChineselithiumproducerChineselithiumproducerUSlithiumproducerBeneficiaryofrevisedUSpolicyandstrongcashreturnCrediblepathto>$227EEPSonBESSandsoftware&serviceopportunityLargestUSBESSsystemintegratorUSturnaroundonnew-genproduct®ulation-inducedmixshiftUSbatteryJVswithLGESandSKONConsolidatoroftheU.S.solarsupplychainBESS-focusedIPPandfirstmoverwithwell-diversifiedglobalpipelineRenewableIPPandpivotingtoincreasinglyfocusonBESSUpsidefromhigherBESSshipmentandrampupofAIDCbusinessSupplierofESSelectricalsystemsforLGESandSDIKoreanlithiumproducerWorld’slargestESSbatterymakerwith121GWhin2025>60GWhESSbatterydeliveryin2025StructuralpartssupplierforlithiumbatteriesChinesebatterymakerChinesebatterymakerCopperfoilleaderbenefitingfrombothbatteryrecoveryandAIdemandLeadingLFPcathodemakerwithex-ChinafootprintChinaleadingelectrolyteandLiPF6producer.Chinasecondlargestelectrolyteproducer.ChineseelectrolyticcopperfoilmakerChineseanodemaker46x29x11x16x13x11x-4x6x9x6x9x8x12x5x5x11x6x155x17x22x13x13x48x12x18x16x16x17x35x23x15x11x22x42x19xGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalMiningGlobalMiningGlobalMiningGlobalMiningGlobalMiningGlobalMiningGlobalMiningGlobalAutosGlobalAutosGlobalAutosGlobalAutosGlobalAutosUSAlternativeEnergyEUAlternativeEnergyEUAlternativeEnergySolariaChinaAlternativeEnergySungrowKoreaIndustrialsKoreaIndustrialsChinaAutosChinaAutosChinaAutosChinaAutosChinaAutosChinaBatteryMaterialsChinaBatteryMaterialsChinaBatteryMaterialsChinaBatteryMaterialsChinaBatteryMaterialsChinaBatteryMaterialsLSElectricPOSCOHoldingsCATLBYDKedaliEveEnergyGotionHigh-techDefuTechJiangsuLopalTinciCapchemNuodePutailaiNewEnergy5.0x1.9x0.7x0.9x1.4x1.1x0.3x6.2x2.9x3.0x2.7x2.1x3.0x1.3x0.5x0.9x1.5x14.4x8.2x7.1x3.5x4.4x11.4x0.5x5.2x3.1x3.6x3.0x2.4x6.3x2.7x4.2x3.9x3.0x3.3x4.5x1.8x0.7x0.9x1.3x1.0x0.3x3.0x2.3x2.0x2.0x1.6x2.0x1.1x0.4x0.8x1.3x13.2x8.5x5.7x2.8x3.4x9.7x0.5x4.4x2.7x3.1x2.7x2.3x4.9x2.4x3.4x3.4x2.8x2.9x1%0%3%1%5%8%(16%)6%23%5%20%22%18%21%5%7%20%8%37%16%21%33%19%3%25%15%17%14%6%21%12%31%14%5%14%10%7%6%6%10%9%(7%)72%29%48%27%22%21%23%9%8%23%9%39%29%23%29%22%4%26%18%20%16%7%24%17%33%17%7%16%NegativelyimpactedSectorGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesEUChemicalsNegativelyimpactedSectorGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesGlobalBatteriesEUChemicalsGlobalAutosUSAlternativeEnergyEUAlternativeEnergyEUAlternativeEnergyCompanynameEcoProBMPOSCOFutureMSKIETUmicoreRenaultFluenceEnergyIncDraxSSEPLCRatingSellSellSellSellSellSellSellSellNeutralNeutralSellNeutralROE2026E2027E2026E2027E2026E2027E76,000110,00054,00019,20015.00 28.00 8.00720.002350.00 16.00 18.4026.00MktcapUS$bn13.93.73.4Curr.price(LC)210,000236,500183,70024,70018.07 32.52 13.54814.402469.50 13.34 28.5332.5811.1x5.0x10.8x0.5x1.5x0.5x4.5x1.6x11.1x5.0x10.8x0.5x1.5x0.5x4.5x1.6x2.1x1.7x2.4x2.6x675x-2036x-301x-48x13x7x-66x11x14x23x33x32xKRcathodemakerandlackofcostcompetitiveLFPproductionKRcathode/anodemakerandlackofcostcompetitiveLFPproductionKoreanbatteryseparatormanufacturersKRcathodemakerandlackofcostcompetitiveLFPproductionEUbasedcathodemakerNegativelyexposedtoglobalriseofChineseOEMsPotentialforincreasingcompetitionin2027andbeyondUKbasedIPPandmayseelowerspreadsonCruachanstoragefacilityUKbasedIPPandmayseelowerloadfactorsandcapacitypricesDeclinedexposureinUSbusinessaftershareholdingstructureadjustmentImprovingLBequipmentprofitabilityoffsetbydeterioratedvapourbusinessChinesecathodemakerfocusedonNCM157x255x360x-181x12x11x-366x12x12x16x26x23x11.9x5.1x10.2x0.6x1.6x0.4x4.7x1.6x2.3x1.9x2.6x2.7x7%2%3%(0%)13%4%(2%)13%17%11%10%11%2%(0%)(4%)(1%)12%7%(9%)15%15%9%8%9%ChinaAlternativeEnergyCSISolarChinaBatteryMaterialsShenzhenYingheChinaBatteryMaterialsRonbayTechnology-64%-53%-71%-22%-17%-14%-41%-12%ChinaAlternativeEnergyCSISolarChinaBatteryMaterialsShenzhenYingheChinaBatteryMaterialsRonbayTechnology-20%a§ April/May2026●1Q26eMonthly●Marketdatapoints a§UltiumNCM(posttariff)CathodeAnode(posttariff)Manufacturingcosts92postUSTariff64$/klWh$110-$10UltiumNCMUltiumNCMU.S.TariffNotes(pretariff)(posttariff)China(posttariff)Cathode34.739.918.219%21.6AssumingexportfromIndonesiaAnode10.512.911.815%&43%14.5AssumingexportfromKoreaandChinaSeparator15%5.0AssumingexportfromKoreaElectrolyte15%3.1AssumingexportfromKoreaHousing6.5AssumingfromUltium,madeinU.S.Materialoverhead0.7AssumingfromUltium,madeinU.S.AssumingfromUltium,madeinU.S.Manufacturingcosts27.727.712.627.7AssumingfromUltium,madeinU.S.2.02.02.0AssumingfromUltium,madeinU.S.R&D/Warranty7.0HigherforLFPonlongerusefullifeforTotal921006486婚§14 CapitalExpenditure(Coreequipment($/kWh)DCblock($/kWh)ACblock($/kWh)2346MVTransformer($/kW)855SoftCost($/kWh)26Warranty($/kWh)72GrossProfit($/kWh)10%Installationcost($/k646婚§15 05,00010,00015,000202420,00025,00030,00035,0002025-30Addition40,000MWa§ Figure22:Energyarbitra($/($/kW-month)5.04.5.4.03.53.02.5andsevereArcticcold.2.00.50.060%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%Apr/May-25:recordpeakdemandbutlessextremeheatthanin2024-limitedpricevolatilityFeb-25:highestwinterdemandamidsub-freezingtemperaturesJan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25stormHeather2.6Jun-25AncillaryJul-25EnergyAug-25YoYJan-24:WinterNov-25Dec-25Sep-25Oct-254.7a§Riskmitigationviatolling/offtaGoogle(Alphabet)Amazon(AWS)MetaIronMountain(datacenteroperator)Apr-26婚§18 DefinitionProjectownera§ 490%51.5%1.0%50%8%30%0%2%-3%35.0%30.0%Year0Year1Year2Year3Year4Year5Year6……Year20Revenue(US$/mn)Arbitragerevenue(US$mn)4.7340.790%90%90%90%90%90%90%88,20088,20088,20088,20088,20088,20088,200Tolling(US$/mn)0.500.500.500.510.520.520.645555556D&A(US$/mn)20.750.4220%32%19%12%12%6%Tax(benefit)/liability30%30%30%30%30%30%30%23.8444.30.420.420.420.420.420.420.42(44.3)28.84.812.1%a§ 0%15%30%35%40%45%50%5%4%($/kWh)85($/kWh)858%7%7%22%21%20%20%3%6%3%6%10%2%0%5%4%3%9%8%12%17%15%12%17%15%14%AverageRevenue(US$/kWpermonth)4.55.05.56.06.57.07.510%8%6%12%11%9%15%10%8%6%12%11%9%15%13%12%23%22%20%19%18%16%15%21%20%18%17%16%14%13%19%18%16%15%13%12%11%5565Batterycell7512%11%9%8%12%11%9%8%($/kWh)864%7%10%2%-1%-5%6%4%2%-1%-5%6%4%1%9%7%5%951051159%9%9%9%35%40%45%Interestrate(%)6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%55%60%65%9%8%9%8%9%23%8%8%9%21%7%8%9%9%24%22%28%21%27%26%growth.a§ 2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E25-30Growth26-30Growth2530CAGRReserveMargin%26.5%24.8%23.8%20.9%17.2%15.0%14.6%-11.9ppt-10.2ppt-2.0pptMW815,147841,966877,390910,363177,209150,8403.5%MW80,99861,4131.3%DataCenterpeakdemandDCcontributiontotoaldemandMW%46,2266.0%7.0%68,1708.4%10.0%12.0%13.5%14.7%92,98483,46520%AnnualDCdemandgrowthMW21,14392,98483,465AnnualDemandGrowthMW21,748177,209150,840DCcontributiontotoaldemand%36%57%61%60%52%49%52%55%28%26%24%22%20%18%16%14%12%2024AReserveMargin2024A2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EDemandResponsePotential(MW)CAISO26.9%23.0%21.2%15.9%15.1%15.0%13.6%795ERCOT24.0%27.7%33.8%28.2%18.4%14.7%8.1%2,652ISONE20.4%18.8%18.6%18.0%16.2%16.9%14.9%MISO17.3%17.5%15.6%21.5%16.5%15.2%14.3%8,205NWPP29.1%25.2%23.9%22.7%21.3%18.3%15.1%806PJM29.8%26.1%22.3%15.2%15.1%11.2%7.5%7,554SERC33.2%28.7%25.2%23.8%21.6%19.5%16.1%7,42427.4%27.9%27.5%28.0%24.1%23.8%22.6%1,463SRSG19.3%23.4%30.0%26.6%25.5%21.5%16.8%417NYISO17.8%17.9%20.6%22.8%23.8%24.0%23.8%897Total26.5%24.8%23.8%20.9%17.2%15.0%14.6%30,779婚§22 婚§23婚§24 197197148123102805845202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EBTMGridDuration(hour)GWh3002502001501005005.04.03.02.01.00.0hours6.0a§ UnitDownsideCaseNote2026-30IncrementalDatacentercapacity608391%45%60%66%2026-30IncrementalGridSola215282542596667%39%43%49%%11%20%23%%20%32%33%220822030Grid-scaleduration3.84.32026-30IncrementalBESSinstallationGWh274650932GWhGWh791972702030ITC-eligibleSupplyGWh133197215SupplySurplus/(Shortfall)forthatyearGWh0(55)NuclearLeadNuclearLeadtime(months)80HydroelectricCoalNuclearCoalNuclearSMRGasGasCCCCSRangeofaverageunitcapexcapexandleadtimeacrossallpowersourcesGeothermalGasCTGasCTSolar+BESSGasCC30SolarOffshoreWindOnshoreWind302010002,00002,0004,000Capex($/kW)($/kW)($/kW/year)VariableO&MCost($/MWh)Operatinglife123456789GeothermalOffshoreWind20*20*a§ 280%230%180%130%80%30%-20%1.Building,Bringing,orBuyingNSupplyCompanieswillfullyfundnewpowergenerationtomeetdemand,buildingorbuyingplants,andaddingextracapacityforpublicsupply.2.PayingforNewPowerDeliveryInfrastructureUpgradesCompanieswillpayforallnewpowerdeliveryinfrastructureupgradesrequiredtoservicetheirdatacenters3.PayingWhetherTheyUsethePowerorNotCompanieswillvoluntarilynegotiateseparatepowerratesfordatacenters,payingfullelectricityandinfrastructurecostsregardlessofactualusagelevels.4.InvestinginLocalJobCreationandWorkforceDevelopmentCompanieswillinvestinthelocalcommunities5.ContributingtoElectricandCommunityResilienceCompanieswillcoordinatewithgridoperatorstocontribute婚§27 婚§28 00202520262027202820292030inGWh25020015010050SamsungSDI-U.S.onshoreLGES-U.S.onshoreOthersSKOn-U.S.onshoreITCSafe-haboredCNvolume婚§29 Apr-23Aug-23Apr-23Aug-23Apr-24Aug-24Apr-25Aug-25120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%thousandsthousandskg,equivalentLFPcapacityinGWh婚§30 New40%32%28%36%37%59%49%30%25%25%40%32%21%32%35%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%-2%1%2%10%33%0%0%0%0%7%17%0%0%0%0%2%6%a§10%10%30%6%ITCbaserateITCAlternativeRateDomesticContentEnergyCommunityGrid-scalemax.totalBonusBonusITC10%50%downto25%from2030.55%45%60%40%65%35%70%30%2030andafter75%25%a§ Min.domesticcontentrequirementsfor10%DomesticContentBonus(%oftotalprojectcost)ConstructionbeginsinU.S.contentNon-Domestic40%60%45%55%202650%50%2026andafter55%45%Threecomponents:-TwoothersFivecomponents-CAM-Twoothers-Oneadditionalmaincomponenta§ a§ Overview-Cells