OpenAI-AI就业转型框架：人工智能对就业的短期影响研究报告+The+AI+Jobs+Transition+Framework：Mapping+AIs+Near-Term+Impact+on+Jobs

openAl

MappingAl'snear-termimpactonjobs

AlexMartinRichmondApril2026

01TheAljobstransitionframework

NotefromthechiefEconomist

02TheAljobstransitionframework

03TheAljobstransitionframework

keytakeaways

04TheAljobstransitionframework

Introduction

Introduction

05TheAljobstransitionframework

All921occupations(147.9Mjobs)

Jobsathighautomationrisk

18%ofjobsareatahighershort-termautomationrisk

46%ofjobsarelesslikelytoexperiencenear-termchange

JobsthatgrowwithAl

12%ofjobscouldgrowbecauseofAl

Jobsthatwillreorganize

Introduction

06TheAljobstransitionframework

07TheAljobstransitionframework

ThecriticalroleofpeopleinaworldofpowerfulAl

08TheAljobstransitionframework

wematchoccupationswithhumannecessityintooneofthreecategories:

10TheAljobstransitionframework

TheAljobstransitionframework

whyhigherworkerproductivitydoesn'talwaysmeanfewerjobs

Breakingdownoccupationsbyestimateddemandresponse:

Theleastelasticoccupationsincludefirefightersandhomehealthaides.

somewhatelasticoccupationsincludephysicaltherapists,editors,anddentalhygienists.

someofthemostelasticoccupationsincludegraphicdesignersandsoftwaredevelopers.

13TheAljobstransitionframework

Theframeworkasksfourquestions:

01canAldoameaningfulshareofthework?

04lsAlalreadybeingusedmeaningfullyforthesetasks?

Aljobstransitionframework

14TheAljobstransitionframework

Aljobstransitionframework

15TheAljobstransitionframework

Fig.3

Employmentsharebyarchetype

shareofemployment

16TheAljobstransitionframework

17TheAljobstransitionframework

capabilityoverhangbyjob

Fig.4

Thecapabilityoverhangbyoccupation

●Realizedexposure.Theoreticalexposure

18TheAljobstransitionframework

Fig.5

capabilityoverhangbyarchetype

gap49.7pp

RealizedexposureTheoreticalexposure

14.9%

gap66.2pp

23.8%

22.7%

72.4%

67.1%

gap52.3pp

90.0%

27.4%

gap21.0pp

Employment-weightedexposurescore(0-100)

19TheAljobstransitionframework

Translatingtheframeworkintotherealworld

Fig.6

Highexposureoccupationssplitbywhetherscaleeffectsoffsetdirectlaborsavings

Translatingtheframeworkintotherealworld

20TheAlIjobstransitionframework

Translatingtheframeworkintotherealworld

21TheAljobstransitionframework

Table1

Recentunemploymentratesbyarchetype

change

+0.3pp

+0.3pp

+0.3pp

4.5%

+0.6pp

22TheAljobstransitionframework

23TheAljobstransitionframework

24TheAljobstransitionframework

Thebigpicture

25TheAljobstransitionframework

Appendix1:Methodology

26TheAljobstransitionframework

Appendix2:MappingAlusagetooccupations

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