高盛-亚太医疗保健行业：体重管理大众化评估仿制药入场带来的机遇（摘要）-20260428

2026年4月28日|8:45PMHKT随着司美格鲁肽在中国、印度和巴西等重点新兴市场的专利在GLP-1市场格局带来颠覆性冲击。这一转变可能对市场动态和GLP-1供应链产生重大影响。在本报告中，我们将从下面两个角度分析潜在的颠覆性影响：1)解析仿制司美格仿制司美格鲁肽的月度费用有望降至10美元：为更好地了解仿制司美格鲁肽的潜在定价区间，我们对其生产过程的关键环节进行了拆解分析，基于此制司美格鲁肽的定价如下：1)乐观情景下（例如首次获批、采用高端注射笔设计）约为每月50美元；2)在成熟市场约为每月10美元（例如实行带量采购后）；3)悲观情景下约为每月2.5美元，假设毛利率为25%，以覆盖销售和一般管理费用从而实现业务盈亏平衡。首批印度仿制药企推出的司美格鲁肽定价（每月14-44美元）与我们的分析相随着体重管理大众化，供应链将显著扩张：我们预计仿制司美格鲁肽将推动GLP-1在全球（尤其是在新兴市场）的渗透率提升，驱动因素包括：1)对原研药构成价格压力，最终有望提升GLP-1类药物的价格可承受性；2)在CDMO和主要仿制药企均大幅扩张产能后，市场将拥有充足的GLP-1生产能力。我们看好具有下列特征的相关公司：1)专注于创新GLP-1管线的CDMO，例如：药明康德的TIDES/GLP-1相关销售额在高基数之上，有望在2025-28年间实现38%的年均复合增速；凯莱英的在手订单加速增长，得益于持续的产能建设和管线扩张；康龙化成成为礼来在中国本土GLP-1制剂供应的合资质合作伙伴；Divi’sLabs长期供应协议的可预见性提高，同时多肽产能持续扩张；2)供应链上的关键企业，例如：威高预计其注射笔业务将稳健增长；3)全球市场的领先仿制药企，例如：Dr.Reddy’s目标是2027财年注射笔销量达到约1,200万支。虽然原研药将处于防御性地位，但我们认为少数品牌产品存在高端化机会，例如：信达生物的玛仕度肽有望受益于中国市场对仿制司美迟审批，从而利用其差异化优势（如肝脏获益、高端自动注射器+852-2978-0526|ziyi.chen@赵林海,Ph.D.+852-3966-4059|linhai.zhao@ShyamSrinivasan,CFA+91(22)6616-9346|shyam.srinivasan@潘英龙,CFA+852-2978-7993|chris.pan@+86(21)2401-8609|tianyi.yan@江欣禅,Ph.D.+852-2978-1126|kaylee.jiang@+852-2978-6666|honglin.yan@+86(21)2401-8928|michael.zheng@KaranVora,CFA+91(22)6616-9146|karan.vora@EddieSong+852-2978-6426|eddie.song@信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国AcostbreakdownanalysisforgenericsemaglutideBrandedGLP-1loweringtheentrybarto<$100/monthWhiletheGLP-1pricesinChinaappearedtobewell-maintainedin2025,with1)noNRDLpricecutforOzempic(semaglutideintype2diabetes/T2D)and2)newproductslaunched(WegovyinNov2024,ZepboundinJan2025,mazdutideinJuly2025)atapremium,themajorpricecutcameinearlierthanexpected:themarketedGLP-1productsenteredChinain2026withamuchmoreaccessiblepricetag(<$100permonthatstartingdosage,图表1),mainlydrivenbytirzepatidewhichsuccessfullyobtainedNRDLcoverageforT2D(pricecutof80%,fromRmb1,200toRmb230forastartingdoseof2.5mg,fromRmb4,700toRmb940foranoptimalmaintenancedoseof10mg),andmaybringinsignificantimpactforobesity-relatedusageaswell(notethattirzepatidewasmarketedinChinaunderthesamebrandnameMufengda/穆峰达forT2Dandobesity).ThepriceofWegovyformaintenance(2.4mgQW)isnowatUS$140permonth,whilefacingincreasingcompetitionfrombothgenericsemaglutideandnext-genGLP-1(e.g.,tirzepatideatcompetitivepricing,andmazdutidebenchmarkedtotirzepatidethroughactivediscount/promotionswhileawaitingyear-endNRDLnegotiation).图表1:KeyGLP-1productsinChinaarebecomingmoreaccessiblewithmonthlycostlessthanUS$100tostartEffectivemonthlypricesofsemaglutide/tirzepatide/mazdutideinobesity(onlinechannel)USUS$e-commerce$245to$255forMazdutideE-commerce$150to$172forTirzepatideE-commerce$117to$180forSemaglutide2026Semaglutide(maintenance)Tirzepatide(maintenance)Mazdutide(maintenance)2024Semaglutide(start)Tirzepatide(start)Mazdutide(start)$700$600$500$400$300$200$100$-2025E-commercepricesasaveragefromMeituan,AliHealth,andJDHealth;Tirzepatidepricein2026refiectsNRDLpricingwhichwasforT2Donly资料来源：DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchDissectingthecostofgenericsemaglutideinChina/IndiaTobetterunderstandthepotentialpricingrangeforgenericsemaglutide,thekeycomponentsofthemanufacturingprocessofsemaglutidearebrokendown(图表2,2026年4月28日22026年4月28日3图表3),fromwhichweexpectthepricingofgenericsemaglutidetobe1)c.US$50/monthinthebullcase(e.g.,first-in-market,premiumpendesign),2)c.US$10/monthinamaturemarket(e.g.,aftervolume-basedprocurementorVBP),and3)c.US$2.5/monthinthebearcaseassuming25%GPMtocoverSG&Aexpensesforbusinessbreakeven.WenotethatthefirstbatchofIndiangenericplayersarelaunchingsemaglutideatprices(US$14-US$44permonth)thatarecompatiblewithouranalysis.图表2:Weexpectacost-basedpriceof$10forsemaglutideinweightmanagementforamonthinamaturemarketBreakdownofcost-basedpricingforonemonthofsemaglutide(2.4mgQW)GLPGLP-1APIshavefallensignificantlysince2022,from$500/gto$150/g,withextremesto$50.Weassume$120/gand5%forAPI60%GPMinthebasecase:assuminginmorematuredmarket(e.g.55-65%GPMafterVBPforChinagenericplayers)Othercostsincludedepreciationandamortization,bringtomarketcostsetcOtherOther,$0.5Grossprofit,$5.2Pen,$1.5API,$1.2F&FMulti-doseinjectionpencosts$1-2perpenCartridge/vialsarecheaperalternativesforgenericGLP-1(e.g.Livzon,Natco)AutoinjectorscostsUS$3-4perinjection,andisunlikelytoFill-and-finishcostsUS$0.2perunitwithin-houseF&Ffunction,orUS$1perunitifusingCDMOF&F:fill-and-finish资料来源：JAMANetworkOpen,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表3:Bull/bear/basecasesforthecost-basedpriceanalysisofmonthlysemaglutideSemaglutideSemaglutide(2.4mgQW,4injections)BaseMonthlyprice(US$)(matureBaseMonthlyprice(US$)(maturemarket90%:e.g.innovativedrugs,JinGe(genericViagra)60%:assumesmorematuredmarket(e.g.afterVBP)25%:assumesbreak-evenpointGrossprofit5.180.63GPMCOGS3.46Cost:autoCost:auto-injectors>multi-doseBringtomarket0.200Fill-and-finish0.200.10APIdecreasedfrom$500/gAPIdecreasedfrom$500/gto$150/g,withextremesto$50资料来源：JAMANetworkOpen,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchnActivePharmaceuticalIngredients(API):GLP-1APIshavefallensignificantly(60-75%,seetheIndiaGLP-1report)since2022,andthesemaglutideAPIpricesinChinahavedroppedfrom$500to$150pergram,withextremecasesaslowas$50pergram(orsimilarlyfromtheJAMANetworkpaper,wheretheaverageAPIpricefromtheinternationalshipmentdatabaseisc.US$70pergram).OurchannelcheckssuggestedthatAPIpricesvarydependingontheordersize,quality(includingpurity),intendeduseofAPI(e.g.,internaltestingorlarge-scalemanufacturing),customertype(US/EUcustomerslesspricesensitive),etc.Inour2026年4月28日4basecase,weassumeUS$120pergramfortheAPI,andthemonthlysemaglutideAPIcostwouldbeUS$1.2(2.4mgQW).nInjectionpen:WhileWegovyandZepboundusesingle-useauto-injectors(US$3-4perpenor$12-15permonth)intheUS,bothproductschosethemulti-doseinjectionpenintheinternationalmarkets,whichcostsUS$1-2perpen(consistentwithWeigaocommentaryofRmb10perpen)thatcouldsupportfourinjections.Mazdutidecurrentlyusesthesingle-useauto-injectorinChina(mainlyYpsomed’sproduct,withdomesticsupplierasabackup),andInnovent’smanagementhassharedtheplantoadoptmulti-dosepenforthepotentialNRDLnegotiation,whiletheauto-injectorswillserveasapremiumizationlevertargetingcustomerswithhigheraffordability.Inadditiontopen,vial/cartridgeformwasadoptedbysomegenericplayers(e.g.,NatcoPharmalaunchedthevialformsemaglutideatUS$14amonthforthestartingdose,LivzonalsosharedtheplantoparticipatepotentialVBPwiththevialform)tofurtherdecreaseinthecostofcontainers.nFill-and-finish:GlandPharma’smanagementsharedthattheaveragepricerealizationforfill-and-finishisexpectedtobeUS$1+perunit,withasmallcost(incrementalEBITDAmarginofc.35%).TheJAMANetworkpapersuggestedUS$0.1/0.2costperunit(atcompetitive/conservativecases),whichislargelycompatiblewithGlandPharma’scomments.WeassumeUS$0.2forthefill-and-finishinourbasecaseassumingin-houseinitiatives,andassumeUS$1perunitinthebullcaseassumingoutsourcing.nGPM:Weassume60%GPMasthebasecaseforgenericsemaglutideinarelativelymaturemarket(e.g.,afterVBP),benchmarkedto55-65%ofGPMforChinagenericplayerswithstabilizedGPMafterVBP.Weassume90%GPMbenchmarkedtoinnovativedrugsandgenericdrugswithoutVBP(e.g.,88-92%GPMforJinGe,thegenericViagrabyGuangzhouBaiyunshan),asthebullcaseforgenericsemaglutidewithrelativelylightcompetition(e.g.,firstinmarket,lessrelianceonhospitalchannels).Forthebearcase,weassume25%GPM,torefiectthebreak-evenpointthatgrossmargincanonlycovertheSG&Aexpenses.WeexpectcompaniestoexitthemarketifGPMgoesbelowthebearcasescenario.2026年4月28日5图表4:OurGPMassumptionforbull/bear/basecasesisbenchmarkedtocompaniesinthegenericdrugindustryinChinaHistoricalGPMandSG&A%ofChinagenericdrugplayersinChina100%90%80%70%60%50%GPM(Bull):90%GPM(Base):60%40%30%GPM(GPM(Bear):25%0%DezhanHealthcareJingxinPharmaHuahaiPharmaUnitedLabsHisunPharmaDezhanHealthcareJingxinPharmaHuahaiPharmaUnitedLabsHisunPharmaGPM-lowGPM-highSG&A%GPMrangefromtheyearimmediatelypriortoVBPtoFY25;SG&A%fromFY25exceptDezhanHealthcare(FY20datausedtoexcludenon-recurringitemsinmorerecentyears)PotentialtodemocratizetheweightmanagementindustrygloballyWiththecost-basedpricingsuggesting<$15permonthforgenericsemaglutideatthematurestage,weexpectsignificantlyincreasedaffordabilityofAOM(anti-obesitymedicines)thatcouldresultinamoreprevalentadoptionofAOMglobally,particularlyinemergingmarkets.Domesticmarket-Indiangenericsalreadylaunched,Chinain2027Thoughthepatentexpiryofsemaglutideissimilar(March20th/21stinChina/India,respectively),thereadinesstolaunchisdifferent:Indiangenericplayershaveenteredthemarketfirst(see图表5),withadozenofgenericsthatlaunchedonDay1,whilethegenericlaunchinChinawillbeonholdforalittlelonger-theRegulatoryDataProtection(RDP)grantedsixyearsofclinicaldataprotectionsincethefirstmarketapprovalinChina(April2021forOzempic),indicatingtheearliestgenericapprovaluntilApril2027.WenotethattheapprovalholdinChinaiseliminatingthe“first-in-market”advantageforgenericplayers,andweexpecteightormoreplayerstobeincludedinthefirstbatchofapprovalsin2027(图表6),thereforeweexpectthelaunchpriceofgenericsemaglutideinChina(Rmb200orc.US$30permonth,atc.80%discounttoWegovy,vs.65%discountforIndiangenerics)tobelowerthanthebullcasedescribedabove.2026年4月28日6图表5:WehaveseenatleastadozengenericplayersenterthesemaglutidemarketrecentlyinIndiawithvialspricingat<US$15ListofgenericplayersintheGLP-1therapysegment(nonexhaustive)#CompanyIPMM/SBrandName(s)Lowestmonthlycost(US$)NotableFeatures/Strategy1SunPharma8.4%Sematrinity,Noveltreat33FocusedonbothType2diabetesandchronicweightmanagementindications.2Abbott5.9%Extensior93LaunchedinpartnershipwithNovoNordisk,withcommercializationcommencinginFebruary2026.3Cipla5.8%Commercializingtirzepatide(Yurpeak)throughapartnershipwithEliLilly;evaluatingfutureentryintosemaglutidegenerics.4MankindPharma5.5%Semaglu55Investingstrategicallyinpeptidemanufacturingcapabilitiesanddelivery‑devicepartnerships.5TorrentPharma4.9%Sembolic,Semalix44Partneredinjectableportfoliowithparalleldevelopmentfocusonoraldosageformulations.6AlkemLabs4.1%Semasize,Obesema,Hepaglide20Developingmultiplebrandedofferingstargetedattheweight‑managementsegment.7Lupin3.5%Semanext,Livarise24PartneredwithZydusLifesciencesforsemaglutideinjectableformulations.8Dr.Reddy's3.2%Obeda46Fullybackward‑integratedproductwithaninitialglobalsalestargetof~12millionpensinthefirstyear.9ZydusLifesciences3.2%Semaglyn,Mashema,Alterme24Single‑pendeliverysystem(upto15mg)enablingflexibleandprogressivedosetitration.Emcure2.5%Poviztra96CommercializedinpartnershipwithNovoNordisk,withlaunchinitiatedinDecember2025.Glenmark2.1%GlipiqTargetingtheType2diabetessegmentacrossbothvialandpre‑filledpenformats.Eris/NatcoSemaNat,SemaFull,SundaeStrategicpartnershipfocusedonvialformulationstoimproveaccessibilityformiddle‑incomepatientpopulations.IPMoverallMarketshareisforMar-2026资料来源：DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,AIOCD图表6:Ten/ninesemaglutidesarecurrentlyunderNDAreview/ph3inChinaLandscapeofsemaglutide(under3.3and2.2category)inChinaCompanyStageinChinaCDEacceptancedateRegistrationcategoryHangzhouJiuyuan(Huadong)ANDA4/3/20243.3LivzonANDA6/13/20243.3QiluPharmaNDA9/15/20242.2UnitedLabsANDA1/24/20253.3HuadongMedicineANDA4/3/20253.3CSPCNDA8/5/20252.2HuishengBiologicalPharmaANDA8/16/20253.3ChengduBeiteBiopharmaANDA9/3/20253.3JiangsuWanbangANDA11/7/20253.3RunzhongPharmaANDA12/11/20253.3HybioPharmaPhaseIII9/12/20232.2CRPharmaPhaseIII1/26/20242.2SuzhouTheryPharmaPhaseIII2/6/20242.2LepuPharmaPhaseIII4/16/20243.3ChenanBiopharmaPhaseIII4/26/20243.3BeijingPeptideBiomedicalPhaseIII8/3/20243.3ShandongNewTimePharmaPhaseIII12/4/20243.3SinoBiopharmPhaseIII12/19/20243.3HainanZhonghePharmaPhaseIII1/27/20252.2HumanwellPharmaPhaseI8/9/20242.2CSPCPhaseI10/12/20242.2ZhongshanWanhanPharmaPhaseI10/31/20242.2FujianGenohopeBiotechPhaseI6/14/20252.2ChongQingFuLingPharmaPhaseI7/5/20253.3AsofApr17,2026资料来源：PharmCubeGlobalmarkets-PartnershipastheprimarygrowthengineBeyondtheinitialdomesticlaunchtiming,Indian/Chinesegenericplayersareadvancingoverseaspathwaysthroughdifferentstrategies(see图表7).2026年4月28日7nBrazilhasemergedasapriorityregistrationmarketformostmanufacturers,assemaglutide’spatentexpiryalignswithMarch2026,andANVISA(BrazilianHealthRegulatoryAgency)approvalscanhelpaccelerateandsimplifysubsequentregistrationsacrossbroaderLatinAmericanmarkets.nIndianplayersaremovingfirstwithdirectregistrationsandlaunchpreparationsacrossawiderangeofmarkets,includingCanada,Brazil,selectedEUcountries,theMiddleEastandCentralAsia,supportedbyrelativelyclearapprovalandlaunchtimelines—BiocontargetsapprovalbyYE26withcommerciallaunchin2027,whileDr.Reddy’splansbroadlaunchesthroughout2026.nIncontrast,Chineseplayersareprimarilyexpandingoverseasthroughgrantingdevelopmentand/orcommercializationrights,withafocusonemergingmarkets,whilecommercialtimelinesnotyetclearlydefined.图表7:KeyIndianandChineseplayersareactivelypreparingforgloballaunchesofsemaglutidegenericsDataasofApr17RegistrationprogressCanada:RespondedtoHealthCanada'sNoticeofNon-ComplianceinNovlaunchfollowingTADdateofMay2026.EMs:FilingviatheCotargetedthroughout2026.Canada,Brazil,SaudiAraCanada/Brazil/EM:Filingshavebeensubmittedacrossmultipleregions.Thecompanyexpectsbest-caseregulatoryapprovalsbytheendof2026,withcommerciallaunchesmorelikelyto26countriesacrossAfrica,theMiddleEast,andCentEMs:Followinganout-licensingagreementwithBiocon,regulatoryapprovalsandsubsequentcommercializationareexpectedinlate2026orearly2027.Brazil:Applicationshavebeensubmittedandgrantedpriorityreviewstatusbythelo(ANVISA).Theexactlaunchtimelineispendingregulatoryclearance,butthecompanyexpectsCanada:Hasactivelyfiledregulatorysubmissionsthroughitssubsidiary,Taro.Brazil:Anticipatedtobeoneoftheearlygenericentrantsintheregion.50+countriesacrossLatinAmerica,Pakistanfilingcompleted(asof3Q25),with10+partnershipagreements(mainlythroughdistributors)BrazilandSoutheastAsiaRegistrationfilingsareunderway,includingbothnewlyinitiatedsubmissionsandongoingGrantedVitamedicHealthexclusivecommercializationrightsforsemaglutide‑relatedproductsATypeCmeetingrequestwassubmittedtotheFDAtodiscusstheregulatorypathapprovalandrequireddataforSemaglutideinjection(asof1H25)EnteredintoanexclusivelicensingagreementwithSinovacBiotech,covering7LatinAmericountries;grantedFosunPharmaexclusiverightsforclinicaldevelopment,registration,manufacturingandcommercializationinMiddleEast,Africa,andselectedASEANmark资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchDeepeningpenetrationinthebroadmarketwhilefocusingonpremiumizationforbrandeddrugsRecallthatinourfirstdeep-diveonChinaGLP-1,casestudiesonprotonpumpinhibitors(PPI)andEGFR-TKIwereanalyzedtogaininsightonthepotentialmarketdynamicswithgenericentry.GiventhatGLP-1drugsinChinaareheavyonretail/2026年4月28日8onlinechannels(vs.hospitals),weherebyfine-tunedthebenchmarkanalysistowardsdrugswithsignificantretailexposureandtargetmetabolic/chronicconditionstoevaluatethelong-termimpactofgenericsemaglutide(图表8,图表9),withtheaimto1)quantifythegenericreplacementrateofWegovyinChina,and2)determinethepotentialmarketshareofnewerGLP-1drugs(e.g.multi-targets):nExpecthighgenericreplacementforWegovyinChina,tripledpenetrationwithexpandedaccess:Welayoutafewcontributingfactors(e.g.,timeinmarket,interchangeability,treatmentduration)thatcoulddrivethepotentialgenericimpacttotheoriginalbrandeddrugs.Basedontheanalysis,weseeWegovylackingstrongdefendingfactorsagainstgenericimpact,given1)despiteOzempicandWegovybeinginthemarketforaboutsixyears(shorterforWegovy,whichwasapprovedin2024),theconsumersaremoreawareof“semaglutide”insteadofthebrandname,2)shorttreatmentduration(3-6months)providesusershigherfiexibilityinswitchingbrands,and3)genericsemaglutideismoreinterchangeablecomparedtoinsulinfromamanufacturingperspective(singlechainwith31aminoacidsforsemaglutideversustwochainswith51aminoacidsforhumaninsulin).Therefore,weexpecthighgenericreplacementforWegovyinChina(90+%).WeexpectthemarketentryofgenericsemaglutidetofurtherexpandaffordabilityofGLP-1(GSeofUS$30permonthatlaunchandUS$10afterVBP),with35mnpeopleonGLP-1inChinain2035E(7.5%ofpenetration,vs.12mnasperourpreviousestimatebeforerefiectingthelatestgenericanalysis).图表8:Genericreplacementrateofbrandeddrugsmainlydependsoninterchangeability,timeinmarket,andtreatmentdurationTableofbenchmarkdrugclassesImpactfromitsowngenericsComparisonwithearliergengenericsMarketGenericpriceGenericInterchangeableYearsfromearlierNumberofPrimaryshareInterchangeableTreatmentdiscount*replacementbyearliergenGenericBrandedgenbrandedGenericsDrugclassStatins(2ndgen)indicationModalityExample(2025)byowngenericsduration*(2025)rate*(2025)genericslaunchlaunchlaunchplayers*(2025)21HighLDLsmallatorvastatin71%Highchronic-98%85%19991999Statins(3rdgen)Insulin(2ndgen)cholesterolmoleculerosuvastatin27%Highchronic-96%86%Low200820078306InsulinHuman28%Highchronic-14%93%19981996Insulin(Next-gen)Insulin(Next-gen)DiabetespeptideInsulinAspartInsulinGlargine72%LowLowchronicchronic-27%-7%24% 50%LowLow20202005200320047868Insulin(Next-gen)PDE5inhibitorInsulinDegludecLowchronic-15%Low2024201822129Erectilesmallsildenafil58%Highchronic-48%86%20142000PDE5inhibitorCCB(1stgen)CCB(2ndgen)CCB(3rdgen)GLP-1(1stgen)GLP-1(Next-gen)dysfunctionmoleculetadalafil42%Highchronic-67%97%Medium2019200555462122HighBloodpressuresmallmoleculenifedipinefelodipineamlodipine24%9%66%HighHighHighchronicchronicchronic-85%-78%-75% 82%72% 90%HighLow199419962001199419951994110OverweightpeptidesemaglutidetirzepatideMediumMedium3-6months3-6monthsMediumMedium202720362024202511*oftheexampledrugHigherimpactfromHigherimpactfromgenericsLowerimpactfromgenerics资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部,PharmCubeMulti-targetGLP-1onadefensiveposition,consumerbranding/physicianendorsementaskey-AscenarioanalysisInadditiontothepotentialreplacementofgenericsemaglutidetoWegovy,itsimpacttothemulti-targetinjectableGLP-1s(e.g.,tirzepatide/mazdutide,GSeof60%marketsharein2026Epriortogenericsapproval)iscriticaltotheevolvingGLP-1marketlandscape(weassumelimitedimpactonoralGLP-1,whichwillcapture30%shareoftheChinaAOMmarketin2035E,consistentwithglobalestimate,seetheupdateonoralGLP-1).Wetakefourdrugclasses(PDE5inhibitors,2026年4月28日9calciumchannelblockers/CCB,statins,andinsulin)asbenchmarkstodeterminethepotentialmarketshareofnewer-generationdrugs,andhighlightthatclearclinicalsuperiorityovertheolder-generationdrugs,earlymarketlaunch,andsuccessfulbrandingaskeydrivers.Giventhelargerangeofmarketsharefromthefourdrugclasses,thedifferencesbetweenGLP-1andbenchmarks,andtheuncertaintiesinthesales&marketingstrategiesfrommulti-targetGLP-1s,weconductascenarioanalysistoframetheuncertaintiesinmulti-targetGLP-1marketshare:nBullcase(60%marketsharein2035E)-Weexpectmulti-targetGLP-1totake60%marketshareintheinjectableGLP-1in2035E(i.e.,marketsharemaintained)inthebullcase,withinsulinasthebenchmark(72%sharefornewer-generationinsulin),whilenotingthattheclinicalsuperiorityofmulti-targetGLP-1(oversemaglutide)maybelesssignificantcomparedtoinsulin,thereforeslightlylowershare.Weexpectgenericsemaglutidetocapture28%ofGLP-1treatedpopulationin2035E,followedbytirzepatide(20%),mazdutide(18%)andFoundayo(orforglipron,12%).WeexpectChinaGLP-1TAMtopeakatRmb37bn(US$5.1bn)in2031EanddowntoRmb33bn(US$4.6bn)in2035E.nBearcase(10%marketsharein2035E)-WetakePDE5inhibitorsparticularlyCialis(brandedtadalafilbyLLY)asthebear-casebenchmark(volumesharedecreasedfromc.30%toc.10%afterthelaunchofgenericViagratilltheapprovalofgenericCialis),whilenotingthattirzepatide/mazdutidehavebettermarketpositiontotakehighersharesthanCialis(e.g.,earliermarketlaunch,bothlaunchedwithin12monthsafterWegovy,vs.CialislaunchedfiveyearsafterViagra).Weexpectgenericsemaglutidetocapture63%ofGLP-1treatedpopulationin2035E,while3%forbothtirzepatide/mazdutide.WeexpectpeakTAMofRmb31bn(US$4.3bn)in2029E,followedbyquickdecrease(Rmb20bn/US$2.8bnin2035E)drivenbythesignificantgenericuptakefollowedbythepotentialVBP.nBasecase(30%marketsharein2035E)-Betweenthebull/bearcases,weexpectthathalfofthemarketshareofmulti-targetGLP-1stobeerodedbygenericsemaglutideinthebasecase(30%in2035Eassumingamorerealisticscenariowhereinmulti-targetGLP-1scouldbemoredefensiveinparticularsubgroups,e.g.,patientswithhigherBMI,insteadoftheentirepopulation,vs.60%sharein2026E).Weexpectgenericsemaglutidetocapture49%ofGLP-1treatedpopulationin2035E,and9%/8%fortirzepatide/mazdutide.WeexpecttheTAMtopeakatRmb34bn(US$4.7bn)in2029EanddowntoRmb25bn(US$3.5bn)in2035E.DD2026年4月28日10图表9:Marketsharebenchmarksofnewer-generationdrugsinreferencetotheearlier-generationgenericsVolume-basedCNmarketshareofPDEinhibitor,Calciumchannelblocker,StatinandInsulinin202542%CCB20%4%20%4%Statins27%63%Insulin21%aEarliergengenericuNewergenaEaClinicalsuperiorityClinicalsuperioritySafetyLaunchtimegapfromearlierbranded(year)basedmarketsharePricepremium*RetailshareClass95%5Long-actingFewercyanopsiaincidence42%CCB63%<1Long-actingReducedriskoftachycardia205%Statin8