mckinsey-人工智能将在何处创造价值又将在何处失效 Where AI will create value and where it wont

April2026

Mcsey

Quarterly

WhereAIwillcreate

value—andwhereitwon’t

UsingAItoboostproductivityisunlikelytocreateasustainableadvantage.TherealvaluefromAIwilllieinreshapingofferings,businessmodels,andmarketstructuresbeforecompetitorsdo.

byAntoineMontard,DagoDiedrich,andTanguyCatlin

WhereAIwillcreatevalue—andwhereitwon’t2

ThebusinessworldisgrapplingwithanAIparadox:AdoptionofgenerativeandagenticAIisgrowing,investmentisaccelerating,butsustained

impactonperformanceiselusive

.This

dynamicechoesthe“SolowParadox,”inspiredbyeconomistRobertSolow’squipthat“youcanseethecomputerageeverywherebutintheproductivitystatistics.”

1

Asoftheendof2025,

almostnineoutoftencompanieshaddeployedAIinatleastonebusinessfunction,arecent

surveyshows,but94percentofrespondentsreportnotseeing“significant”valuefromthose

investments.

2

AndwhilemanyexecutivesviewAIasessentialtotheircompanies’future

competitiveness,theirfocustodatehasbeenlargelyon

pilotsseekingincrementalproductivity

improvement

ratherthandeepertransformations.

ThisdisconnectsuggestsamisunderstandingofhowAIcreatesandredistributeseconomic

value.Productivityimprovementisunlikelytoexpandprofitpoolsorprovidecompanieswitha

durableadvantagebecausecompetitiontendstoerodeproductivitygains,benefitingcustomersmorethanthecompaniesthatimplementthem.RealvaluefromAIwillcomefromreshaping

offerings,businessmodels,andmarketstructuresinwaysthatexpandorreallocateprofitpools.WhatmattersmostisnothowAIwillchangeyourindustrybuthowitwillchangetheeconomicsofcompetition.

Thepathofpastrevolutionarytechnologiessuchasrailroads,electricity,andcomputerspointstohowthatdisruptionmayplayout.General-purposetechnologiesrarelycreatevalueinasinglewave.Initialproductivityimprovementsenhanceefficiency,buttrueeconomicimpactcomes

later—whennewproductsemerge,businessmodelschange,andvaluechainsarereconfigured—oftenredistributingvalueacrossindustryplayersratherthanuniformlyincreasingit.For

example,whenelectricityfirstarrivedinfactories,manybusinessessimplyreplacedthesteamenginewithanelectricmotor,capturingefficiencygainsbutleavingtheline-shaftlayout

unchanged.Thebreakthroughcamelater,whensmallmotorsenabledmanagerstorearrangemachinesaroundworkflows,andultimatelywhencompaniesredesignedtheirfactoriesaroundelectricity,creatingnewoperatingmodels.

Thequestionsbusinessleadersshouldaskare:ThroughwhichmechanismsandatwhatpacewillAIcreate,expand,orshiftprofitpools?Andwhatdoesthatmeanforourstrategy?Inthis

article,weexplorethreeoverlappingwavesofchange:productivitygains,differentiation,andreductionoftransactioncosts.Productivitygainswillmatter,buttheyareunlikelytodefinethewinners.Executivesneedtolookbeyondefficiencytoproductandserviceinnovation,and

ultimatelytohowAIwillreshapeindustrystructuresandredistributeprofits.

Productivitygains:Rapidlybecomingtablestakes

AI’smostimmediateimpacthasbeenonproductivity.Byautomatingtasksandstreamliningworkflows,AItoolscanmateriallyimprovespeed,accuracy,andqualitywhileloweringcost.

MostcurrentapplicationsofAIaretoolsthataccelerateexistingwork.JPMorganChase,for

example,usesAItoscantransactionsforsignsoffraudinrealtime,

3

whileBMWusescomputer

1RobertSolow,“We’dbetterwatchout,”NewYorkTimesBookReview,July12,1987

2“

ThestateofAIin2025:Agents,innovation,andtransformation

,”McKinsey,November5,2025

3AliRaza,“JPMorganrollsoutAI-basedfrauddetectionforcorporatebanking,”EconomyWatch,September15,2025.

WhereAIwillcreatevalue—andwhereitwon’t3

vision(aformofAIthatreplicateshumansight)toautomatequalityinspectionsonproductionlines.

4

Theseapplicationsreducemanualeffortandimproveconsistency,buttheylargely

preserveunderlyingworkflows.

LargergainsemergewhenAIisembeddedacrossentireprocesses.AtSiemens,AIhelpsto

coordinatepredictivemaintenanceandproductionplanningandflowtoreduceoperational

varianceanddowntime.

5

Ratherthanoptimizingisolatedtasks,thecompanyusesAItoimprovesystem-levelperformance.

Attheleadingedgeofproductivityimprovement,AIisbeginningtoorchestrateexecution

dynamicallyandatscale.Amazon’sfulfillmentcentersuseAItomanagerobotfleets,routing,

inventoryplacement,andcapacitydecisions.

6

Airlinesandhotelsareintegratingdemand

forecasting,pricing,crewscheduling,andassetutilizationtocompresscycletimesandimproveloadfactors.Intheseenvironments,AIdoesnotsimplysupportdecisions—itcontinuously

coordinatescomplexsystems,withhumansincreasinglyfocusedonoversightandexceptionmanagement.

Whileproductivityimprovementsarevaluable,theyrarelyincreaseprofitpools—theytypically

affectthefloorofindustryperformance,nottheceiling.Productivity’sstrategicroleismainly

defensiveandfacilitative:Itresetscost,speed,andqualityexpectations,andfreesupresourcestoinvestelsewhere.ThemainexceptioninthecaseofAIiswhenproductivitygainschangeuniteconomicsfromvariabletofixedcostsonalargescale.Insuchsettings,lowercostsenable

greaterproductionvolume,whichinturnfurtherreducesunitcosts,creatingaself-reinforcingadvantage.

Tocapitalizeonthisdynamic,companiesneedaheadstart.Earlymoverscanscalefaster,lockinlowercostpositions,andmakeitharderforcompetitorstocatchuponcethebenefitsbegintocompound.Evenwhenthispatternplaysoutonamodestscale,companiesthatcapture

productivitygainsaheadoftheircompetitorscantemporarilyexpandmargins,reinvestthe

gains,andresettheindustrycostbaselineintheirfavor.Theseadvantageserodeasadoptionspreads,buttheycanbevital—particularlyinindustriesinwhichcostpositionshapespricingpowerandinvestmentcapacity.

Differentiation:Fuelinggrowth

Product,service,andbusiness-modelinnovationiswhereAImovesbeyondimprovinghowworkisdonetoopeningthedoortonewgrowth.Aswithearliertransformativetechnologies,the

greatestvaluewillnotcomefromAIalonebutfromcomplementaryinnovations:redesigned

processes,newproductsandbusinessmodels,andnewecosystemstructuresbuiltaroundthecoretechnology.

OrganizationscapturingoutsizedvaluefromAI-enabledinnovationtendtobuildafew

reinforcingadvantagesthatcompoundandprovidethefoundationfornewcompetitivemoats.

4"AxiscamerassupportinnovativequalityinspectioninBMWGroupvehicleproduction,"AxisCommunications,accessedApril15,2026.

5“SiemensestablishesAI-supportedpredictivemaintenanceatSachsenmilch,”

Industrial-Production-W

,June6,2025.

6“AmazonunveilsthenextgenerationoffulfillmentcenterspoweredbyAIand10timesmorerobotics,”AmazonNews,October9,2024.

WhereAIwillcreatevalue—andwhereitwon’t4

AsAIcapabilitiesspread,advantageshiftsawayfromfixedproductfeatures,costposition,orbrandandtowardAI-enabledstrengthsthatdeepenwithuse:proprietarydatathatimprovesperformanceovertime;customerbenefits,createdbynetworkeffectsorbyembeddingAI

directlyintocustomerworkflows,thatreduceincentivestoswitch;andfasterlearninganditerationcycles.

Tocomebacktoourfactoryexample,theintroductionofelectricityimprovedefficiency,butit

wasn’tuntildistributedelectricmotorsallowedfactoriestobereorganizedaroundworkflows

ratherthanproximitytopowersourcesthatassemblylines,massproduction,andnewindustrialsupplychainsbecamepossible.Similarly,electrificationenabledrefrigeration,whichreshaped

foodretailandglobalsupplychains,andpoweredurbaninfrastructure,whichtransformedcities.Electricitywasessential,butthebiggestexpansionofprofitpoolsemergedfrom

complementaryinnovationsthatreconfiguredindustriesaroundthenewformofenergy.

AIappearstobefollowingasimilartrajectory.Foundationalmodels(includinglargelanguagemodels)arepowerfulenablers.However,lastingdifferentiationwillnotstemfromaccessto

thesetechnologies—whichwillbeincreasinglycommoditized—butfromthewayorganizationsusethemtoredesignofferings,revampbusinesseconomics,andreconfigureecosystems.

Thisprogressiontendstounfoldinstages.Thefirststageimprovescustomerexperiencewithinexistingindustrystructures.Considerride-hailingservices.Traditionaltaxinetworksallocated

supplylargelythroughphysicalqueuing—thenextavailabledriverinataxiline.CompanieslikeUberandLyftallocateridesalgorithmicallytotheavailabledriverclosesttothecustomer,

reducingwaittimes,increasingtransparency,andimprovingassetutilization.Theunderlying

asset—acarwithadriver—remainsunchanged;whatshiftedwasthecoordinationmethodandthecustomerexperience.AInowextendsthislogicfurther:Allocation,pricing,routing,and

incentivescanbeoptimizedinrealtime,continuouslyimprovingboththeuserexperienceandsystemeconomics.

Thesecondstageexpandstheproductfrontier.Platformsbuiltaroundsomeride-hailing

serviceshaveextendedthemodelintoadjacentsegmentssuchasfooddelivery,wherethe

samecoordinationlogicorchestratesinteractionsamongrestaurants,couriers,andcustomers,creatingnewon-demandconsumptionpatterns.ThenextfrontiermaybeAI-powereddriverlesstaxiswhich,byremovingthehumandriver,willfundamentallychangethecoststructureand

scalabilityoftheserviceandpotentiallytransformtheeconomicsofurbanmobility.

Morebroadly,AIenablesofferingsthatwerepreviouslyinfeasible.Infinancialservices,

AmericanExpressusesAItotailoroffersandrecommendationsinnearrealtimebasedontransactionbehaviorandrisksignals.

7

Inlifesciences,AI-designedmoleculesallow

pharmaceuticalcompaniestoacceleratedrugdiscovery.

8

Inthesecases,AIdoesnotmerelyimprovedelivery—itchangeswhatcanbeoffered.

Thethirdandmostconsequentialstage—andthebiggestcatalystofprofitpoolexpansion—isbusinessmodelreinvention.Here,AIreshapestheeconomicsofcompetitionitself.NewAI-

7LauraGrant,“HarnessinggenAItopowerrestaurantrecommendations,”AmericanExpressblog,November7,2025.

8M.W.Mullowneyetal.,“Artificialintelligencefornaturalproductdrugdiscovery,”NatureReviewsDrugDiscovery,November2023,Volume22.

WhereAIwillcreatevalue—andwhereitwon’t5

nativebusinessesillustratethisshift.Harvey,forexample,isredefininglegalservicesby

combininggenAIwithproprietarylegalworkflowsanddatatodeliverofferingsthattraditionallyrequiredteamsoflawyers,blurringthelinebetweensoftwareandservices.Similarly,KhanmigoisreimaginingeducationthroughAI-poweredtutoringthatprovidespersonalized,always-on

instruction,challengingtheeconomicsofclassroom-basedandone-to-oneteachingmodels.Inbothcases,thecompetitiveadvantageliesinembeddingAIintothecoreofferinginawaythatchangesthecoststructure,expandsaccess,andcreatesnewvalue.

AmazonPrimeisanotherexampleofcomplementaryinnovationcreatingstructural

differentiation.Theserviceshiftedcompetitionfromtransaction-leveltorelationship-level

economics.Itssubscriptionmodelincreasedpurchasefrequencyandpredictabilityofdemand,whileAI-drivenpersonalizationandlogisticsoptimizationimprovedcustomerexperience.

ExpandingPrimeofferingstoincludeshopping,streaming,andstoragedeepenedengagementandincreasedswitchingcosts.Overtime,behavioraldata,ecosystembreadth,andmultiple

customertouchpointsreinforcedoneanother.Thealgorithmmattered,buttheenduring

advantagecamefromredesigningthebusinessmodelarounddata,ecosystemintegration,andlifetimecustomervalue.

9

Unlikeproductivity,product,service,andbusiness-modelinnovationcanexpandprofit

pools—butonlywhentheseinnovationsareprotectedbystrongcompetitivemoats.Advantageaccruesdisproportionatelytoorganizationsthatmoveearly,learnfasterthanpeers,andbuildcapabilitiesthatcompoundevenasAI-assistedpracticesbecomeindustrynorms.

Transactioncostreduction:Drivingdeepsystemicshifts

Thelastwaveofchangeisthemostimpactful—andtheleastintuitive.AIpromisestonotonlychangeproductsoroperationsbutalsomarketstructuresbyradicallyreducingtransaction

costs.

Manyindustriesarebuiltonfriction.Customersstruggletocompareoptions,coordination

acrossmultipleprovidersiscomplex,switchingiscostly,andintermediariesthrivebymanaginginformationasymmetryoroperationalcomplexity.AI(particularlyagenticsystems)underminesthesefoundationsbymakinginformationtransparent,coordinationautomated,anddecision-

makingnearinstantaneous.Asaresult,valueshiftsawayfromfrictionmanagementand

concentratesinsteadaroundnewtechnologicalorstrategiccontrolpointssuchasownershipofthecustomerinterfaceordata,privilegedaccesstodemand,ortheabilitytoorchestrate

complexecosystems.Whichcontrolpointprovidesthestrongestleveragewillvarybyindustry,buttheunderlyingpatternisconsistent:Astransactioncostsfall,advantagemigratesto

companiesthatoccupythecriticalpositionsinalower-frictionvaluechain(seesidebar,“TheCoaseansingularity:WhytransactioncostsshapemarketsandhowAIagentscouldredrawthem”).

9BanggangWu,GengxuanGuo,andPengLuo,“Theeffectofsubscriptionsoncustomerengagement,”JournalofBusiness

Research,May2024,Volume178;MdRashaduzzaman,“Influenceofconvenience,time-savings,price,andproductvarietyonAmazonPrimemembersandnon-Primeshoppers’onlineapparelpurchaseintention,”Textiles,Merchandising,andFashion

Design:Dissertations,Theses&StudentResearch,December2020.

WhereAIwillcreatevalue—andwhereitwon’t6

TheCoaseansingularity:WhytransactioncostsshapemarketsandhowAIcouldredrawthem

Inperiodsofrapiddisruption,whenclearanswershaveyettoemerge,goingbacktofirstprinciplescanprovideguidanceonwherevaluewillmove.Towit:Transaction-costeconomics,firstarticulatedbyRonaldCoase,pointsthewaytoAI’smostdisruptivepotential.

Coase’stheoryisthatmarkets,businesses,andvaluechainstaketheformstheydobecauseusing

marketsiscostly.Searchingforoptions,comparingprices,negotiatingcontracts,coordinatingacrossparties,enforcingagreements,andswitchingprovidersallrequiretime,information,andeffort.Wherethesetransactioncostsarehigh,companieshandlerelatedactivitiesinternallyorwiththeassistanceofintermediaries;wheretheyarelow,marketsfragmentandspecialize.Inthisview,industry

structuresareequilibriumoutcomesshapedbytransactioncosts.Retailers,brokers,andplatformslargelypersistbecausetheyreducethesefrictionsmoreefficientlythanalternativeswould.

Thislogicimpliesthatbusinesssizeandscopearenotfixedbutcontingentontransactioncosts.

Companiesexpandwhencoordination,contracting,andinformationcostsarehigh,makingitmore

efficienttointernalizeactivities.IfAIagentsmateriallyreducethesecosts—handlingsearch,

negotiation,coordination,andenforcementatnear-zeromarginalcost—thetraditionaladvantagesofscalemayweaken.Insuchanenvironment,smallerandmorespecializedfirmsconnectedthrough

fluid,AI-mediatedecosystemscouldoperatewitheconomicspreviouslyreservedforlarge,integratedplayers.Industriescouldevolvefromverticallyintegratedvaluechainstowardmoremodular

structures,whereadvantagecomesfromspecializationandpositioningwithinnetworksratherthanscale.

RecentresearchonwhathasbeentermedtheCoaseansingularity1exploresAIagents’rolein

dramaticallyreducingtransactioncostsbyactingonbehalfofusersatnear-zeromarginalcost.Astransactioncostsfall,traditionalvaluechainscouldbeentirelyreconfigured.Someintermediaries

maybebypassedortheirrolereducedasnewcontrolpointsemerge.Profitpoolswouldshift

accordinglytowardthosebestpositionedtooperateinalow-friction,agent-mediatedenvironment.

1PeymanShahidietal.,TheCoaseansingularity?Demand,supply,andmarketdesignwithAIagents,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch.

Twoscenariosillustratehowthissystemicdisruptioncouldhappen.Intheenergyindustry,AI

agentscouldconnectcustomersdirectlytoenergyproviders,automaticallyoptimizingpriceandusage,andreducingthetraditionalroleofretailintermediariesorbypassingthementirely.In

banking,AIagentscouldboostindividuals’savingsbyreallocatingdepositsorswitching

providerstooptimizerates,overcomingtheinertiathatkeepscustomersfromchangingbanksandputtingfinancialinstitutions’corevaluepoolsunderpressure.AccordingtoaMcKinsey

WhereAIwillcreatevalue—andwhereitwon’t7

analysis,athirdofthe$70trillioninglobalconsumerdepositssitsinnear-zero-yieldcheckingaccounts,andif5to10percentofthatamountwerereallocatedtothehighestratesavailable,banks’depositprofitscouldfallby20percentormore,

reshapingretailbankingeconomics

.Tobesure,regulations,lackofconsumertrust,andinstitutionalinertiamayslowthepaceand

shapethepathwayoftheseshifts,butsincetheywillproducesimplerchoicesandbetteroutcomesforcustomers,thedirectionoftravelislikelytohold.

AsAIbecomesembeddedincustomer-facinginteractionsandeliminatesfriction,ithasthe

potentialtoreshapemarketsinthreefundamentalways.First,itmaychangehowcustomers

discoverandchooseproviders.That’sbecauseasAIagentstranslateintentandpreferenceintocuratedrecommendations(asinthecaseofAmazon’sAI-poweredassistantRufus10),theyshiftcompetitionawayfromvisibilityandmarketinginvestmentandtowardrelevanceandpositioningwithinAI-poweredecosystems.Unlikehumandecision-making,whichisepisodicand

constrainedbylimitedattention,agentscontinuouslysearch,evaluate,andrefinechoices.

Discoverybecomespersistentratherthanoccasional,andcompetitionincreasinglyhingeson

algorithmicrankingandstructuredproductdataratherthanbrandrecall.Insuchenvironments,valuemovestothosethatconsistentlyshapeorinfluencetherankings.Asagentslearnfrom

interactionsandimprove,smalladvantagesinrelevanceordataqualitymaycompound,

directingadisproportionateshareofdemandtowardalimitedsetofprovidersandmakingthosepositionsdifficulttodisplace.

Second,theinclusionofAIinpurchasedecisionssharplyreducestransactionandswitching

costs.Byautomatingcomparison,onboarding,andmigration,AIagentsweakenadvantagesthathadstemmedfromcustomerinertia.ThisisalreadyvisibleinstartupssuchasTaupia,which

enablesmallbusinessesandhouseholdstoseamlesslyswitchserviceproviderstoonesofferingbetterdeals.

Third,AIreconfiguresintermediationascustomerinterfacesmovefromwebsites,callcenters,andbrokerstowardconversationalagentsandplatforms.Asaresult,somelegacy

intermediariesarelikelytoseetheirrolesreduced.OpenAI’spartnershipwithKlarna,forexample,aimstoenableconversationalproductdiscoverywithbuilt-inpricecomparison,eliminatingtheneedfortraditionalcomparisonwebsitesandaffiliate-drivenplatforms.

Giventhesethreeshifts,incumbentsmayneedtorethinkwhereandhowtheycompeteas

frictionsteadilydiminishesacrossvaluechains.SomewillpartnerwithAIplatformstoremain

visibleasdiscoveryshiftsawayfromtraditionalchannels.Otherswillspecializefurther—for

example,inofferingswheretrust,judgment,andhumanaccountabilityremaindecisive,withAI

augmentingratherthanreplacingexpertise.Inhealthcare,forinstance,AIcansupportdiagnosiswhilecliniciansprovideempatheticpatientcareandremainaccountablefortreatmentdecisions.Stillotherswillbuildorjoinecosystemsthatdeliverseamlessend-to-endsolutions,simplifyingcustomerexperienceandcreatingadisincentivetoswitch.

Eachofthesepathwaysislessaboutachievingatechnologicaladvantagethansecuringa

positionthatenablescontinuedprofitabilityasmarketstructureshifts.Organizationsthatmerely

10“Amazon’snext-genAIassistantforshoppingisnowevensmarter,morecapable,andmorehelpful,”AmazonNews,November18,2025.

WhereAIwillcreatevalue—andwhereitwon’t8

adapttochangesunderwaymaypreserveprofitability,atleastforatime.ThosethatidentifywhereAIcanfundamentallyreshapethecustomerexperience,andinvestindeliveringthat

experienceindistinctiveways,cancaptureadisproportionateshareofvalue.

SystemicdisruptioniswhereAI’simpactismostuneven—andmostdecisive.Astransaction

costsfall,profitpoolsarenotsimplyexpandedbutreallocated,withvalueshiftingtowardnewcontrolpointsindiscovery,coordination,andcustomerrelationships.Traditionallyattractive

marketsmayshrinkordisappearentirelyasbarrierstoentrycrumble,

supplier–intermediary–buyerpowershifts,andsubstitutionbecomeseasier.Incumbentsthatcontinuetorelyonlegacysourcesofcompetitiveadvantageriskbeingsqueezedintonarrower,morecommoditizedroles.Thosethatactearlytopositionthemselveswherevalueislikelyto

concentratecanredefinetheirrolesbeforenew,lower-frictionindustrystructurestakehold.

CompetinginaneconomyreshapedbyAI:Implicationsforleaders

TheAIdisruptionisfundamentallychangingwhatitmeansto

achieveandmaintaina

competitiveadvantage

.Toleadthistransition,CEOsneedtomovebeyondpilotsfocusedonproductivityandseekadeeperunderstandingofhowAIcanchangetheeconomicsofthe

business.Leaderscanstartwiththefollowingfoursteps:

—AssesstheimpactofAIonprofitpools.LeadersshoulddevelopadetailedviewofhowAIwillreshapeindustryeconomics—wherevalueiscreated,lost,orshifted.TheyshouldalsoassesstheimpactofAI-poweredproductivityimprovementsand,morefundamentally,ofinnovationandlowertransactioncostsonrevenue,costs,andmargins.

—BuildorstrengthenAI-poweredcompetitivemoats.AsAIadoptionspreads,differentiationwillstemfromhowcompaniesbuildandcombinehard-to-replicatecompetitivemoats.

LeadersshouldevaluatewhichsourcesofadvantagecanendureinanAI-driven

environment,fromproprietarydatatonetworkeffectstostructuralcostadvantages.The

priorityistodevelopareinforcingsystemofmoatstailoredtoyourpositionanddeepeningthembeforecompetitorsdoorbeforeadvantagesolidifieselsewhere.

—Turnspeedintoastructuraladvantage.Theabilitytotest,learn,andscalefasterthan

competitorsisaprimarysourceofadvantageinanAI-shapedeconomy.Asexperimentationcyclescompressandthecostofiterationfalls,organizationsthatmovequicklyimproveatahigherrate.Fasterexperimentationgeneratesmoredata;moredataimprovesmodelsand

decisionqua