mckinsey-全球经济情报执行摘要2026年4月 Global Economics Intelligence Global Summary Report April 2026

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GlobalSummaryReport

ReleasedApril2026(datathroughMarch2026)

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GlobalEconomicsIntelligence›ExecutiveSummary(1/4),January2026

Beforearecentescalationingeopoliticalconflict,executivesentimentontheglobaleconomywasasupbeatasinlate2025

Globaleconomicconditions1

%ofrespondents

Current,comparedwith

6monthsagoExpected,next6months

23

34

35

29

21

Better

37

41

21

29

33

Thesame

31

32

33

50

26

Worse

37

32

56

eb2-M6

eb2-M6

Feb25-27

Feb25-27

Dec

2025

2026

2026

Dec

2025

2026

2026

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

1Nov24–Dec5,n=1,011;Feb25–27,2026,n=313;Feb28–Mar6,2026,n=607

ArtemismoonmissionofferscounterpointtoMiddleEasttensions,whicharedrivingvolatilityand

erodingeconomicsentiment;consumerssubduedbutretailsalesholdup.

WiththeArtemismoonmissioncapturingglobal

imaginationrecently,itsperhapsnosurprisethatthe

spaceindustryisamongthesectorshighlightedfortheirgrowthpotentialandrecentperformanceby

anew

reportfromtheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute

(MGI).Over

thepastthreeyears,18keyindustries,dubbed“futurearenasofcompetition”byMGI,havegrownroughlyfourtimesasfastasotherindustriesinmarketcapitalizationandtentimesasfastinrevenue.Thesearenasare,bydefinition,thefastest-growingandmostdynamic

industries.

Amongthetopperformers,AIsoftwareandservices,

cloudservices,andsemiconductors,plusdigital

advertising,cybersecurity,EVs,space,andshared

autonomousvehiclesallshowgrowthconsistentwiththeassumptionsunderpinningMGI’shigher-growth

scenarios.All18showedthecharacteristicarena

featuresofrapidtechnologicaladvances,investment

pouringin,andanexpansiveglobalmarketpotentialtosustainhighgrowthoverthenextdecade.

MGIhasalsocoinedtheterm“omniscalers”foragroupofninecompaniesthatarenotonlyamongtheworld’s

biggestinvestorsbutalsoplayingsimultaneouslyacrossmultiplearenas.Collectively,theygeneratedover$700billioninoperatingcashflowandinvestedmorethan

$800billioninR&Dandcapitalexpendituresduring2025.

AccordingtotheMarch26report“

Theracetakesoffin

thenextbigarenasofcompetition

,”companies

headquarteredintheUnitedStatesandtheGreater

Chinaregionaccountfor90%ofarenas’marketvaluetoday.UScompaniesleadin14ofthe18arenasin

termsofmarketcapandteninintermsofrevenues,whileChinaisgainingground,especiallywhen

measuredbyrevenueshares.

Meanwhile,backonearth,regionaltensionsare

challengingtheglobaleconomy,withtheMiddleEastsituationdrivingeconomicvolatility.TheIranconflict—particularlytheclosureoftheStraitofHormuz—has

drivenasurgeinoilpricesandheightenedbroader

inflationarypressures.TheAmericanAutomobile

Association(AAA)reportsthattheaveragepriceof

gasolinehasrisentoapproximately$4pergallon,upfrom$2.98priortotheconflict.Othereconomiesarelikelytobeharderhit,withtheUKparticularly

vulnerable,accordingtotheOECD,whichhascutits2026forecastforUKGDPby0.5percentagepoints—downfromitspreviousestimateof1.2%.Atthesametime,inflationisalsopredictedtobehigherthan

expected.

The

latestMcKinseyGlobalSurvey

trackingexecutive

sentimentontheeconomyfindsthatgeopolitical

instabilitycurrentlyovershadowsallotherperceived

economicrisks.ThesurveywasinthefieldwhenMiddleEasttensionsescalatedonFebruary28.Responses

collectedonandafterthatdateweresignificantlylessoptimisticaboutboththeglobalanddomestic

economies,althoughexpectationsforcompanygrowthremainedprimarilypositive.

Unsurprisingly,energypriceshavealsobecomea

significantfocus.However,thiswasonlyseeninthe

responsesreceivedonandafterFebruary28.Forthe

firstfewdaysthesurveywasinthefield,respondents

wereaboutequallylikelytocitegeopoliticalinstability

andtradepolicychangesasatoprisktotheircountries’economies,andenergypricesweren’tacommonlycitedrisk.Then,geopoliticalinstabilitybecamethe

predominantlycitedrisk,andenergypricesbecame

nearlyascommonofaconcernastradepolicychanges.

Nevertheless,respondentsremainoptimisticabout

expectationsfortheirowncompanies,withjustoverhalfofprivate-sectorrespondentsexpectingdemandfortheircompanies’productsorservicestogrowinthenextsix

months—asimilarnumbertolastquarter.About60%

Source:McKinseyGlobalSurveysoneconomicconditions,2025–26McKinsey&Company3

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence›ExecutiveSummary(2/4),January2026

Geopoliticalinstabilityistheprimaryperceiveddisruptiontoglobaleconomicgrowth,whilefocusalsoincreasesonenergyprices

Source:McKinseyGlobalSurveysoneconomicconditions,2025–26McKinsey&Company4

Biggestpotentialriskstoglobaleconomicgrowth,next12months1

%ofrespondents

ChangesintradepolicyEnergyprices

SupplychaindisruptionsEconomicvolatility

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Mar

2025

Feb

28-

March6,2026

Geopoliticalconflicts

Feb25-27,2026

Sept

2025

June

2025

Dec

2025

1Thefivetopicsshownarethemostcommonlycitedoutof15topicsofferedasanswerchoices.Feb26–Mar7,2025,n=988;May29–June6,n=898;Aug27–Sept5,n=799;Nov.24–Dec5,n=1,011;Feb.28–March6,2026,n=607.

expectprofitstogrow,consistentwiththepasttwoquarters,thesurveyfound.

Movingtothegrowthfigures,globalactivityremains

subduedanduneven.USrealGDPgrowthforQ42025wasreviseddownsharplytoanannualized0.7%,whiletheECBnowexpectseurozoneGDPgrowthofjust

0.9%in2026.UKgrowthalsoremainsweak,withGDPuponly0.8%yearonyearinJanuary.

Amongemergingeconomies,Indiacontinuesto

outperformbutisbeginningtoshowsignsof

moderation.Brazil’seconomyexpandedby2.3%in

2025,downfrom3.4%in2024,whileRussiarecordedonly1.0%growth.Mexico’seconomygrew1.2%yearonyearinFebruary,supportedmainlybyservices.

Consumersentimentremainssubduedacrossmost

economies,evenifretailsaleshaveheldupbetterthanexpected.ConfidenceimprovedmodestlyintheUS,butdeterioratedintheeurozoneandremainedweakintheUKandBrazil.AfterastrongJanuary,retailsales

momentumappearstobefadinginmanyeconomies,althoughUKretailsalesstillroseby2.3%yearonyearinFebruaryandChinasawmodestsupportfrom

holidayspendingandgovernmentincentives.

CentralbankslargelykeptratesunchangedinMarch.ThemainexceptionswereBrazilandRussia,which

bothcutpolicyratesby25basispointsinresponsetoweakergrowthandeasinginflation.

Inflationpressures,however,arebeginningtorise

again.EnergypriceslinkedtotheconflictintheMiddleEastpushedinflationhigherinseveraleconomies.

Consumerinflationincreasedintheeurozone,India,andChina,whileinflationremainedstubbornlyabovetargetintheUKandrosefurtherinMexico.

CommoditymarketssawsignificantvolatilityinMarch.Brentcruderose15%,naturalgas27%,gasoline34%,andjetfuelmorethandoubled,drivenbytheclosureoftheStraitofHormuzandconcernsoverglobalenergy

supply.Theriseinenergycostsalsopushedupfoodandfertilizerprices,whilegoldbrieflyreachedarecordhighbeforeretreating.

Atthesametime,manufacturingactivitystrengthenedglobally,reachingitshighestlevelinalmostfouryears,drivenmainlybyAsia.China’sindustrialproduction

acceleratedto6.3%yearonyear,whilemanufacturingPMIsintheUSandChinamovedbackintoexpansionterritory.Servicesactivityalsoremainedrelatively

resilient,althoughmomentumsoftenedinIndiaandBrazil.

Labormarketsremainbroadlystable.Unemployment

hastickedupintheUSandafewothercountries,but

generallyremainslow.TheUKunemploymentrateheldsteadyat5.2%,whileeurozonelabor-marketconditionscontinuedtoholduprelativelywell.

FinancialmarketsweakenednoticeablyinMarchas

investorsreactedtohigherenergypricesandconcernsoverslowinggrowth.Equitymarketsdeclinedacross

mosteconomies,volatilityrosesharply,andborrowingcostsremainedelevated.

Tradeperformanceremainedmixed.ExportgrowthwasstrongestintheUS,China,andMexico,while

importgrowthremainedmoreuneven.TheUStradedeficitnarrowedinJanuary,Brazil’stradesurplus

widenedinFebruary,andMexico’stradedeficitnarrowedsharplyasexportsrebounded.

McKinsey&Company5

[Advancedeconomies]:USrealGDPgrowth

reviseddownbyhalffor2025;ECBprojectionsseeeurozoneGDPgrowthslowingto0.9%in

2026;UKyear-on-yearGDPgrowthinJanuaryunchangedat0.8%.

Q42025realGDPgrowthreviseddown

significantlytoannualrateof0.7%—halfthe

previous1.4%estimate;BEAsaysrevisionduetoadjustmentsinconsumerandgovernment

spendingandexports.

InMarch,theS&P500wasdown7.3%,bringingtheone-yearreturntoapproximately13.3%;theDow

Jonesdeclined7.4%overthemonthandposted

approximatelya9.1%one-yearreturn.DuringMarch,theCBOEVolatilityIndexclosedat30.0(versus19.9inFebruary).

TheFederalReserveheldratessteadyforasecondstraightmeeting,atthe3.5%–3.75%targetrange.

January2026exportswere$302.1billion,$15.8billionmorethaninDecember2025.Januaryimports

reached$356.6billion,$2.6billionlessthanthe

previousmonth.Themonthlydeficitreducedby25.3%to$54.5billion.

Onthehousingmarket,the30-yearfixed-rate

mortgageincreasedslightlyto6.4%inMarch.Existinghomesaleswereup1.7%inFebruary.During

January,housingresidentialstartsroseto1,487,000(abovetherevisedDecemberestimateof1,387,000),a7.2%increase.CompletionsinJanuarywereup,

reaching1,527,000—a4.8%increasefromarevisedDecemberestimateof1,457,000.

Non-farmpayrollemploymentwasdownby92,000inFebruary.Theunemploymentratechangedlittle

Theindustrialproductionindexincreasedslightlyto102.5inFebruary.S&P’sManufacturingPMIclimbedto52.4inMarch2026(51.6inJanuary);theservicesPMIdecreasedslightlyto51.1inMarch(51.7in

January).

January’sretailandfoodservicessales(adjustedforseasonalvariationandholidayandtrading-day

differences)were$733.5billion,down0.2%from

December’srevised$734.7billion.TheConsumerConfidenceIndex(ConferenceBoard)increasedto91.2fromanupwardlyrevised89.0inJanuary.

Theconsumerpriceindex(CPI)increased2.4%yearoveryearinFebruary—thesameincreaseasin

January.Coreinflationrose2.5%(annualized).

ConflictwithIran—particularlytheclosureofthe

StraitofHormuz—hasdrivenasurgeinoilpricesandheightenedbroaderinflationarypressures.The

AmericanAutomobileAssociation(AAA)reportsthattheaveragepriceofgasolinehasrisento

approximately$4pergallon,upfrom$2.98priortotheconflict.

ApartialshutdownoftheDepartmentofHomeland

SecuritythatstartedonFebruary14,followinga

congressionaldeadlockoverimmigrationfunding,leftTransportationSecurityAdministration(TSA)workersunpaidanddrovenationwidetraveldisruptions.

UnitedStates

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence›UnitedStatesreport,March2026

McKinsey&Company6

at4.4%.

Source:BLS;FederalReserve;NAREIT;NYFederalReserveBank;USCensus;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysis

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence›UnitedStatesheatmap,March2026

McKinsey&Company7Source:BLS;FederalReserve;NAREIT;NYFederalReserveBank;USCensus;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysis

Q42025realGDPgrowthreviseddownfromprevious1.4%estimatetoannualrateof0.7%;Middle-Easttensionsdriveupglobalenergyprices

Significantimprovement

Improving

Nosignificantchange

Worsening

Severedecline

Changevspriormonth

Indicatorcategory

Changevs3-yearaverage

Government

Consumer

Business/industry

Realestate

Externalsector,trade

Prices

Labormarket

Equities

Foreignexchange

Debt

Credit

Monetarypolicy

Fiscalpolicy

Tradedeficitreducedbyover25%inJanuary;non-farmpayrollemploymentdowninFebruary(byapproximately92,000)

Theindustrialproductionindexincreasedslightlyto102.5inFebruary.S&P’sManufacturingPMIclimbedtoto52.4inMarch2026(51.6inJanuary);theservicesPMIdecreasedslightlyto51.1inMarch(51.7inJanuary).

FinancialmarketsMacroeconomic

January’sretailandfoodservicessales(adjustedforseasonalvariationandholidayandtrading-daydifferences)were$733.5billion,down0.2%fromDecember’srevised$734.7billion.TheConsumerConfidenceIndex(ConferenceBoard)roseto91.2fromanupwardlyrevised89.0inJanuary.

January2026exportsreached$302.1billion,$15.8billionmorethanDecember’sexports.Januaryimportswere$356.6billion,$2.6billionlessthanDecember’simports.Themonthlydeficitreducedby25.3%to$54.5billion.

Onthehousingmarket,the30-yearfixed-ratemortgageincreasedslightlyto6.4%inMarch.Existinghomesaleswereupby1.7%inFebruary.DuringJanuary,housingresidentialstartsroseto1,487,000(abovetherevisedDecemberestimateof1,387,000),a7.2%increase.CompletionsinJanuaryreached1,527,000,a4.8%increasefromarevisedDecemberestimateof1,457,000.

Non-farmpayrollemploymentwasdownby92,000inFebruary.Employmentinhealthcaredecreased,reflectingstrikeactivity.Employmentininformationandfederalgovernmentcontinuedtotrenddown.Theunemploymentratechangedlittleat4.4%.

CPIincreased2.4%yearoveryearinFebruary;thesameasinJanuary.Coreinflationrose2.5%(annualized).InFebruary,medianinflationexpectationsdecreasedattheone-year-aheadhorizonto3.0%,from3.1%.Thethree-year-aheadandfiveyear-aheadhorizonsremainedsteadyat3.0%.

AtitsMarchmeeting,theFeddecidedtoholdinterestrates;stockmarketvolatilityincreasedamidongoingglobaltensions

InMarch,theS&P500wasdown7.3%,bringingtheone-yearreturntoapproximately13.3%;theDowJonesdeclined7.4%overthemonthandpostedanapproximately9.1%one-yearreturn.DuringMarch,theCBOEVolatilityIndexclosedat30.0(19.9inFebruary).

TheFederalReserveheldratessteadyforasecondstraightmeeting,atthe3.5%–3.75%targetrange.JeromePowell,thecentralbank’schair,leanedintotheuncertaintyofthemomentwiththeIranwardraggingon,energypricessurging,andthelabormarketsendingmixedsignals.

andpolicy

US–IsraelconflictwithIrancontinuestodriveupglobaloilprices;partialDHSshutdownleadstomajortraveldisruptions

EscalationoftheUS–IsraelconflictwithIran—particularlytheclosureoftheStraitofHormuz—hasdrivenasurgeinoilpricesandheightenedbroaderinflationarypressures.AAAreportsthattheaveragepriceofgasolinehasrisentoapproximately$4pergallon,upfrom$2.98priortotheconflict.

ApartialshutdownoftheDepartmentofHomelandSecuritythatbeganonFebruary14,followingacongressionaldeadlockoverimmigrationfunding,leftTSAworkersunpaidanddrovenationwidetraveldisruptions.

Eurozone

Source:ECB;EuropeanCommission;OxfordEconomics

Growthlostmomentumatstartof2026;mixed

signalsfromhigh-frequencyindicatorsstillpointtosubduedactivity,whiledisinflationandresilientcreditoffersomepositivity;MiddleEastconflict

hasbecomeakeysourceofdownsiderisktogrowthandupsiderisktoinflation.

TheEuropeanCentralBank’s(ECB)March2026staffprojectionsseeeuro-areaGDPgrowthslowingto

0.9%in2026.Thiswasreviseddownby0.3

percentagepointsfromDecember’sprojection,mainlybecauseescalatingtensionsintheMiddleEasthaveraisedenergypricesanduncertainty.Thelatest

eurozoneexpenditurebreakdownforQ42025was

stillrelativelysupportivefortheoutlook,with

householdconsumptionup0.4%andgrossfixed

capitalformationup0.6%.However,theECBexpectstheweakerexternalenvironmentandhigherenergy

coststoweighonactivityin2026.Near-term

indicatorsalsoindicatecooling:retailsalesdeclinedinJanuary,industrialproductionfellagain,and

consumerconfidencedeterioratedsharplyinMarch,suggestingthathouseholdsandfirmsarebecomingmorecautious.

Atthesametime,labor-marketconditionshavehelduprelativelywell,withunemploymentedgingdown,employmentstillincreasing,andwagegrowth

continuingtosupportrealincomes—whichshould

helpcushiontheslowdown.Creditconditionsalso

providesomesupport.Adjustedloanstohouseholdsgrewby3.0%yearonyearinJanuary2026,

unchangedfromDecember,whilelendingtonon-

financialcorporationseasedonlyslightlyto2.8%from3.0%.TheECB’sbanklendingsurveyalsopointsto

firmerloandemand,especiallyforhousing,

suggestingthatfinancingconditionsarenolonger

worseningmateriallyevenifbusinesslendingremainscautious.

Theinflationpicturehasbecomemorecomplicatedagain.Eurozoneheadlineinflationroseto1.9%in

February2026from1.7%inJanuary,whilecore

inflationincreasedto2.4%.Servicesremainedthe

mainsourceofunderlyingpricepressure,suggestingthatdomesticinflationhasnotfullyfadedevenas

energycontinuedtoexertanegativecontribution.

ThishelpsexplainwhytheECBkeptratesunchangedinMarch.Whileinflationisclosetotarget,theECB

warnedthattheconflictcouldcreaterenewedupsideriskstoinflationviaenergypricesevenasitweakensgrowth,leavingpolicymakerswithamoredifficult

trade-off.

Recentdevelopmentsreinforcethismorefragile

backdrop.Europeanpolicymakershavebecome

increasinglyfocusedonresilienceandshock

management,asrenewedenergy-marketturbulencehastightenedthelinkbetweeninflation,growth,andpolicy.Theimplicationisthattheeurozoneisstill

expanding,butwithweakermomentum,higher

uncertainty,andlessroomforpolicysupportthanearlierintheyear.

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence›Eurozonereport,March2026

PhotobyIlnurKalimullinonUnsplash

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence›Eurozoneheatmap,March2026

Eurozoneactivityremainedsubdued,whilecreditconditionsanddisinflationstayedsupportive

McKinsey&Company9Source:EuropeanCommission;Eurostat;HaverAnalytics;UnitedNations;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysis

Government

FinancialmarketsMacroeconomic

&policy

Change

vspriormonth

Indicatorcategory

Changevs3-yearaverage

Consumer

Business/industry

Realestate

Externalsector,trade

Prices

Labormarket

Equity

Foreignexchange

Debt

Credit

Monetarypolicy

Fiscalpolicy

Significantimprovement

Improving

Nosignificantchange

Worsening

Severedecline

Economicactivityremainedsubduedasinflationpressurescontinuetobecontained

Eurozonemonthlyretailsalesgrowthdropped0.1%inJanuary.Food,drinks,andtobaccorose0.3%monthonmonth,whilenon-foodproductsdeclined0.2%andautomotivefuelfell1.1%.Annualdynamicsacceleratedto2.0%fromJanuary2025.Theconsumerconfidenceindicator

deterioratedsharplyto–16.3pointsinMarch,reachingitslowestlevelsinceOctober2023.

Eurozoneindustrialproductiondroppedby1.5%monthonmonthinJanuary,extendingthedeclinerecordedinDecember.Thecomposite

purchasingmanagers’index(PMI)fellto50.5inMarch2026,from51.9inFebruary.Thissignalsonlymarginalgrowth,theweakestintenmonths.Constructionoutputdecreasedby0.1%monthonmonthinJanuaryandby1.9%annually.TheconstructionPMIroseto46.0inFebruaryfrom45.3in

January2026—belowthelong-termaverageof47.55.

January2026sawa€1.9billiondeficitingoodstrade,comparedwitha€1.4billiondeficitayearearlier.Exportsreached€215.3billion,down7.6%yearonyear,whileimportsstoodat€217.2billion—a7.3%decrease.Thefull-yearsurplusreached€149.9billionin2025,comparedwith€159.0billionin2024.Exportsofgoodsroseby2.4%andimportsby2.8%overtheyear.

Headlineinflationincreasedto1.9%inFebruary,from1.7%inJanuary.CoreinflationalsoroseinFebruary2026,to2.4%,from2.2%inJanuary;servicesremainedthemaincontributortooverallinflation.

January’sunemploymentratefellto6.1%from6.2%inDecember.Employmentgrowthwasup0.2%quarteronquarterinQ4,above0.1%increasesinQ2andQ3.Thejobvacancyrateroseto2.2%inQ4from2.1%inQ3,butremainedbelow2.5%fromQ42024.AccordingtotheECBwage

tracker,negotiatedwagesareexpectedtoriseby2.6%in2026,after3.0%in2025,supportingfurther,butmoremoderate,gainsinrealincomes.

Equitymarketmomentumeasedwhilecreditflowsstayedfirm

Europe’sSTOXX600trendeddowninMarch,afterrisinginJanuaryandFebruary.

TheeurohasbeenslightlydowninMarch,standingat$1.15=€1onMarch31.

Averageeurozone10-yearbondyieldswerestablebetween3.3%and3.4%fromApril2025toJanuary2026,beforedecliningto3.13%inFebruary2026.

Flowsinloanstothecorporatesectorjumpedto€29billioninDecember,leavingannualgrowthat3.0%yearonyear,suggestingimprovementin investments.Lendingtohouseholdsreached€20billion,proppedupbythemortgagecategory.Totalcreditactivityhitathree-yearhighinQ4.

EUmonetaryandfiscalpolicyshiftedtowardshockmanagement

TheECBkeptratesunchanged,whilewarningthathigherenergypricesfromtheMiddleEastconflictcouldliftinflationanddampengrowth.In

parallel,theEurogroupsaiditstoodreadytocoordinateasneeded,andEUleaderstiedthecompetitivenessagendamorecloselytothefinancingdebatearoundthenextEUbudget.

Growthremainsweakanduneven,withthe

economyshowingtentativesignsofstabilizationbutstillstrugglingtogainmomentum;year-on-year

GDPgrowthinJanuarywasunchangedat0.8%.

Themainsupporttoactivitycontinuestocomefrom

consumers.Retailsalesroseby2.3%yearoveryearinFebruary.Sentiment,however,remainscautious.

ConsumerconfidencedeclinedslightlyinMarchandremainsatrelativelylowlevels,eventhoughitisstillabovethelowsseenlastyear.Householdsreportedlittlechangeintheircurrentfinancialsituation,but

expectationsforthenext12monthsdeteriorated:

consumersincreasinglyexpectweakereconomic

conditionsandhigherinflation.Thissuggeststhatthe

recentimprovementinspendingmaynotbesustainedifrealincomescomeunderrenewedpressure.

Theunemploymentrateremainedstableat5.2%,whilebroaderlabor-marketindicatorscontinuetosoften.

Hiringintentionsremainweakandfirmsappearincreasinglycautiousaboutexpandingpayrolls.

Inflationremainsstubbornlyabovetarget.Consumer

priceinflationheldat3.0%inFebruary,interruptingtheearlierdisinflationtrend.Althoughintermediategoods

pricescontinuetodecline,pricesforcapitalgoodsare

risingandaccelerating.Higherenergypricesand

transportcostslinkedtothedisruptionintheMiddleEastareexpectedtofeedthroughinthecomingmonths.Asaresult,businessesandhouseholdsincreasinglyexpectinflationtoremainelevatedoverthecomingyear.

Againstthisbackdrop,financialconditionscontinueto

berestrictive.TheBankofEnglandkeptitspolicyrate

unchangedat3.75%inMarch,balancingweakgrowthagainststill-elevatedinflation.Marketshadexpectedthenextmovetobearatecut,butpersistentinflationand

risingenergypriceshavepushedthoseexpectations

furtherout.Long-termborrowingcostsalsoremainhigh,withthe10-yearmortgageratestuckat4.5%in

February.Thiscontinuestoweighonhousingactivity,investment,andcreditgrowth.

FinancialmarketsweakenednoticeablyinMarchas

investorsbecameincreasinglyconcernedthatthe

combinationofweakgrowthandstickyinflationcouldpushtheUKeconomytowardstagflation.Equity

marketssawsell-offsduringthemonth,althoughtheyreboundedinearlyAprilandrecoveredaroundhalfoftheirlosses.Governmentbondyieldsremainelevatedasmarketspriceina“higherforlonger”interest-rateenvironment.

Thegovernment’sSpringStatementavoidedsignificantnewfiscalsupportandinsteademphasizedfiscal

discipline,reflectinglimitedroomtoloosenpolicygivenstill-highpublicdebt.Atthesametime,businessesfaceadditionalpressurefromhigherlaborcostsandchangestobusinesstaxationcomingintoeffectinApril.Togetherwithrenewedgeopoliticalrisksandhigherenergy

prices,thesedevelopmentsreinforcetheviewthattheUKeconomyislikelytoremaininalow-growth,high-inflationenvironmentoverthecomingquarters.

UnitedKingdom

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence›UnitedKingdomreport,March2026

Source:BankofEngland;BBC;OECD;OfficeforBudgetResponsibility;OfficeforNationalStatistics;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysis

Source:BankofEngland;BBC;OECD;OfficeforBudgetResponsibility;OfficeforNationalStatistics;McKinsey’sGlobal