2026年全球航空可持续发展展望白皮书（英文版）

GlobalAviation

SustainabilityOutlook2026

WHITEPAPERMARCH2026

Images:GettyImages

Contents

ForewordbytheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization

4

ForewordbyAirportsCouncilInternationalWorld

5

ForewordbyWorldEconomicForumandindustryleaders

6

Executivesummary

8

1Ambitiouspragmatism

9

1.1Overallprogressin2025

9

1.2Expectationsfor2026

9

1.3Driversofoptimism

10

1.4Challengesahead

11

1.5Industryprioritiesandtrendsfor2026

12

2Technologytrends

14

2.1SAFavailabilityandscalability

14

2.2InfrastructurereadinessforSAFalongthesupplychain

17

2.3Accesstocleanenergyandtheroleofhydrogenfor

17

airportsandflightoperations

2.4Developmentsinaircraftpowertrains–hydrogen,hybrid

19

andeVTOL

2.5BoostingefficiencyandsustainabilitythroughAIanddata

19

3Policyandgeopoliticaltrends

21

3.1Energysecuritycouldboostfossil-freefuels

21

3.2SAFpolicy

22

3.3Carbonpricing

27

3.4ImplementationofCORSIA

28

3.5Tradetensions,tariffsandexportcontrolsaffectaviation

28

supplychains

3.6Commodityandfeedstockflows

30

3.7Constraintstoairspaceandmilitaryemissions

32

3.8Multilateralism,understrainglobally,holdsfirminaviation

32

4Economictrends

33

4.1Passengerandcargotrends:unevengrowthacross

33

regions

4.2Aircraftandenginemanufacturingbottlenecks

35

4.3SAFaffordabilityandprice

37

4.4SAFpartnerships,offtakesandvoluntarydemand

40

4.5Fuelrefiningactivity,oilmarketsandoverallimplications

44

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20262

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20263

5Widerindustrytrends

45

5.1Climateresilienceofairportinfrastructureamidextreme

45

weatherevents

5.2Workforceinstabilitypresentsongoingchallenges

46

5.3Operationaldisruptionsfromcyber-attacksanddigital

47

systemfailures

5.4Energysystemoutagesandgridreliabilityrisks

47

Conclusion

48

Appendix1Alonger-termlookatSAFdemand

49

Appendix2Methodologyformainanalysis

59

Contributors

60

Acknowledgements

61

Endnotes

62

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20264

March2026

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2026

Forewordbythe

InternationalCivil

AviationOrganization

JuanCarlosSalazar

SecretaryGeneral,

InternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)

Aviationstandsatadecisivemoment.With

passengerandcargovolumescontinuingtorise,thesectormustsustaingrowthwhileacceleratingitstransitiontowardsnet-zerocarbonemissions.

Inthiscontext,theGlobalAviationSustainability

Outlook2026offersatimelyandstrategic

contributionbyconnectinglong-termambitionwithpracticaldelivery.

Thestrengthofthisreportliesinitsemphasisonimplementation.Itunderscoresthatsustainable

aviationisnotsolelyatechnologicalchallenge,

butasystem-widetransformationrequiring

policycoherence,marketcertainty,infrastructurereadinessandsustainedpublic-private

collaboration.Asclimateandeconomicpressuresintensify,structureddialogueacrosssectors

remainsessentialtomaintainprogresstowardssharedclimateobjectives.

In2025,ICAO’s42ndSessionoftheAssembly

reaffirmedthesector’scollectivecommitmenttothelong-termglobalaspirationalgoal(LTAG)ofnet-

zerocarbonemissionsby2050.Theprioritynowisexecution.Achievingthisgoalwillrequiretherapid

scale-upofcleaneraviationenergy,majorinvestmentinnewsupplychains,andgloballyalignedregulatoryframeworksthatprovideconfidencetomarkets

andinvestors.ThroughtheCarbonOffsetting

andReductionSchemeforInternationalAviationinitiative(CORSIA)anditssustainabilityandlife-cycleemissionscriteria,ICAOhasestablishedafoundationforsuchinternationalalignment.

Itisequallycriticaltoensurethatallregionscan

participateinthistransition.ICAO’sAssistance,

Capacity-buildingandTraining(ACT)programmesandtheFinvestHubaresupportingstatesin

translatingcommitmentsintobankableprojects,

andbridgingpolicyambitionwithimplementation

andfinance.Inparallel,ICAOisstrengthening

itsworkonclimateresilience,recognizingthat

mitigationandadaptationmustadvancetogethertosafeguardthefutureofinternationalairtransport.

Thisreportreinforcesacentralreality:thepathtonet-zeroaviationwillbeshapednotbyanysingleactor,butthroughcoordinatedactionamong

governments,industryandfinance.Bypresentingbothopportunitiesandrisksassociatedwith

thecleanenergytransition,theGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2026servesasapracticalreferencefordecision-makersnavigatingthis

transformation.

Asthewindowforclimateactionnarrows,ICAOwelcomesthiscontributionfromtheWorld

EconomicForumanditsaviationcommunities.

Throughsustainedcooperationandclearglobal

frameworks,wecanconvertambitioninto

investmentandinvestmentintolastingimpactforaresilientandsustainableaviationsector.

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20265

Forewordby

AirportsCouncil

InternationalWorld

JustinErbacci

DirectorGeneral,

AirportsCouncil

International(ACI)World

InitslatestAirportTrafficForecasts2025-2054,ACIWorldpredictsglobalpassengertrafficwillreach10.2billionpassengersin2026and18.8billionby2045,confirmingsustainedlong-termdemandgrowthandunderscoringtheroleofaviation—andairportsin

particular—assourcesofstabilitythatenabletrade,mobility,tourismandglobalconnections.

Atthecentreoftheaviationsystem,airportsaremorethanphysicalinfrastructure;theyserveaseconomicanchorsandcommunitygateways,

sustainingsupplychains,supportingjobs

andmaintainingvitallinksthatunderpinwell-

functioningeconomiesandsocialcohesion,evenintimesofuncertainty.

Inthiscontext,geopoliticalshifts,socialchange,

climateimpactsandbroaderuncertainties

shouldnotslowprogress,butinsteadserveas

acatalysttoreaffirmambition,accelerateaction

andembracethetransformationsneededtobuildaresilient,sustainableandinnovativeaviation

sector.Ensuringthesectorcangrowsustainablyisthereforenotonlyanindustrypriority,butaglobaleconomicimperative.

Theairtransportsectorcontinuestomakeprogresstowardsnet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050and

itisimportanttorecognizehowmuchhasalreadybeenachieved.AsthisGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2026demonstrates,airportsworldwidearedeliveringconcreteresults:expandingsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)distribution,improvingenergy

efficiency,electrifyinggroundoperations,exploringhydrogenprojects,strengtheningcooperation

programmesandincreasingparticipationintheACIAirportCarbonAccreditationprogramme,managedbyACIEurope.Thisprogressacrossairportsandthewideraviationecosystemisreal,measurable

anddeservingofrecognition.

WiththeInternationalCivilAviationOrganization

(ICAO)leadingthecollectiveambitionofstates,

theseeffortshelpthesectortoremainfocused

andmovedecisivelyforward.Yetthepathaheadremainsunevenandthechallengesaresignificant.Thenextfiveyearswillbecriticalinkeepingair

transportontrackfordecarbonization.1Thiswill

requireacceleratedactionandcollectiveeffort

acrosstheaviationindustryandgovernments,

supportedbysubstantial,long-termcommitmentsfromthefinanceandenergysectors.

SAFiscentraltoalldecarbonizationpathwaysandmustremainaprimaryfocusofaction.Whilethe

steadygrowthoftheSAFmarketisencouraging,amuchfasterscale-upisneeded.Atthesametime,theaviationsector,includingairportsasenergyandinfrastructurehubs,willrequireaccesstosufficient,reliable,renewableandlow-carbonenergytomeetgrowingdemand.

Thesedecarbonizationeffortsmustgohand-in-handwithadaptationandresilience,asclimateimpactsarealreadyincreasinglyaffectingairportinfrastructureandoperations.Meetingfuture

demandandshapinganext-generation,future-readyaviationsectorwillrequiresignificant,

well-coordinatedinvestmentstoenablelong-term,economicallysustainableairtransportinfrastructure.

Thisreportreflectsboththeurgencyofthemomentandtheopportunityahead.Itrightlyunderscores

theneedforpragmatic,actionablestrategiesandsustainedcollectivedelivery.Airportswillremaincentraltothiseffort,servingaspillarsofstability,innovationandcoordinatedactionfortheglobalaviationsystemandthegenerationsoftravellersandcommunitiestocome.

6

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2026

ForewordbyWorldEconomicForum

andindustryleaders

HassanEl-Houry

ExecutiveChairman,MenziesAviation

SebastianBuckup

ManagingDirector,

WorldEconomicForum

PaulGriffiths

ChiefExecutiveOfficer,DubaiAirports

ChaiwatKovavisarach

GroupChiefExecutiveOfficerandPresident,BangchakCorporationPublicCompanyLtd

LisaWee

ChiefSustainabilityOfficer,AVEVA

JulianWentzel

GroupChiefSustainabilityOfficer,HSBC

Aviation’sjourneytowardssustainabilityisfacing

strongheadwindsin2026,witharecord9.8billionpassengersexpectedworldwidethisyearandthehighestvolumeofcargoevertransportedbyairin2025.Whilethisstronggrowthprovidesapositiveoutlookontheoverallprofitabilityoftheindustry,

challengesaremountingwhenitcomestomovingthesectortowardsnetzero.Fromcleantechnologycostsanddeploymentchallengestodisruptions

drivenbygeopolitics,wars,tradetensions,

cybercrimeandclimatechange,theworldhas

evolvedrapidlyandprofoundlysinceayearago,

whentheWorldEconomicForumpublisheditsfirstGlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook.

GeneGebolys

PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,

WorldEnergy

DeborahFlint

PresidentandChief

ExecutiveOfficer,GreaterTorontoAirportsAuthority

JimmySamartzis

ChiefExecutiveOfficerandBoardDirector,LanzaJet

TheyeVeen

Co-founderandChiefCommercialOfficer,

SkyNRG

Aviation-specificeventsduring2025clearly

demonstratedhowgrowingandgreeningthesectoraretwogoalscompetingamongahostofdifferentprioritiesforexecutives’attention.

Theindustryisalsoseekingtodoubledownon

safety,increaseoperationalefficiency,navigateairtrafficdisruptions,improvepassengerexperienceanddriveaffordability–whileatthesametime

innovatingthroughnewbusinessmodels,frontiertechnologies,materialsanddata.Asinternationalaviationfacesthesecomplementary–and

sometimesconflicting–opportunitiesandrisks,itiscomingunderincreasingscrutinytoseewhetherandhowitchoosestoadvanceclimateaction.

Asthesector’sjourneytowardsnet-zerocarbon

emissionsbecomesmoreturbulent,theflightpathmayrequiresomepragmaticcoursecorrections

–fromleveragingregionaldynamicstosecuring

additionalpolicysupport.Nevertheless,asleadersoftheWorldEconomicForum’saviationcommunity–drivinginitiativessuchas

AirportsofTomorrow

,

the

FirstMoversCoalition

and

GreenFuelForward

–weremaincommittedtoadvancingsustainableaviation,regionallyandglobally.

Thedestinationhasnotchanged.Thelatest

AssemblyoftheInternationalCivilAviation

Organization(ICAO)remainedfirminits

commitmenttonet-zeroaviationby2050andits2030vision.Togetthere,theindustrywillneedtodevelopandcommercializecleanerfuels,

spearheadthetransformationofairportsinto

economic,digitalandenergyhubs,andexpandmarketmechanismssuchasbook-and-claim.

Everyactorinthesectorwillneedtoplaytheirpartinthecomingyear–includingairports,airlines,

fuelproducersandsuppliers,groundhandlers,infrastructurecompanies,financiers,aircraft

manufacturers,corporatetravellers,innovators,academiaand,morethanever,governments.

Wherethereisfragmentation,weshouldremindourselvesthataviationisaboutconnectivity.In

today’sworld,bringingpeopletogetherhasnever

beenmoreimportant.Scaling-upcollaborationacrossindustriesandregionsremainsessentialtolevelthe

playingfieldforsustainableinvestmentandultimatelytoreducethecostofthetransitiontonetzero.

Therewillbeupsidesalongthisjourney.Itismoreimportantthanevertorememberthatinvestmentincleanaviationmeansmorejobs,betterskills,neweconomicopportunitiesandgreaterenergysecurity–topicsthatcontinuetogainattentionandsupportacrossregions.

Thiscanonlybeachievedifindustryand

governmentscontinuetoworkconstructively

together.During2026,thiscollaborationshould

prioritizetheestablishmentofclearandsimple

regulationsalignedacrossregions,more

transparentfuelsupplychains,interoperablebook-and-claimmechanisms,greaterknowledge-sharingbetweenpeers,andbetteraccesstoaffordable

cleanenergyandresources.Alongwithdedicatedfinancialincentivesandbetterriskmanagement,

makingprogressontheseprioritieswillhelpunlockthenewcleantechnologiesthesectorneeds,bothonthegroundandintheair.

Withthispragmaticapproach,imbuedwithaspiritofdialogueandcollaboration,welookforwardtocontinuingtogetherasacommunitytoacceleratethejourneytowardsaviationsustainability.

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20267

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20268

Executivesummary

Aviationentered2026withstrongnet-

zeroambitionbutgrowingrecognitionthatdeliveryrequirespragmatic,stablepoliciesandresilientsupplychains.

In2025,theaviationsectormaintainedits

commitmenttonet-zerocarbonemissionsdespiteanincreasinglycomplexoperatingenvironment.

Whileambitionandpolicyattentionremainedstrong,theyearhighlightedpersistentstructuralchallengesrelatedtofuelprices,policystability,tradedynamicsandgeopoliticaldisruption.Progresscontinued,butunevenly,promptingmanyintheindustrytoexplorehowaspirationaltargetscanbetranslatedinto

morepragmatic,economicallyviableandresilientdecarbonizationpathways.

Sustainableaviationfuel(SAF)remainsthe

cornerstoneofaviation’sdecarbonizationstrategy.Policymomentumincreasedacrossregionsin

2025,withmandateskickingoff,newincentives

andstrategicroadmapsaimedataccelerating

SAFdeployment.Severalregionsarepositioning

themselvesasfutureSAFhubs,seekingtocaptureindustrialdevelopmentandenergysecuritybenefits.However,somestakeholdershighlightedconcernsaroundthepossibilitytofulfilmandatespost-2030.

Thisisbecause,whileinvestmentinSAFproductionexpanded,itremainsconstrainedbyuncertainty

aroundlong-termofftake,priceevolutionandpolicystability.Changesorpotentialfutureadjustments

tomandates,taxcredits,feedstockeligibilityand

life-cycleemissionsmethodologiesinkeymarketsriskcomplicatinginvestmentdecisions.For

capital-intensivetechnologieswithlongleadtimes,regulatorypredictabilityremainscriticaltounlockingprivateinvestmentandenablingscale.

Biofuelsupplychainsalsoprovedvulnerableto

tradepolicyshifts,exportcontrolsandgeopoliticaltensions.Disruptionstofeedstockflows,particularlyusedcookingoil,illustratedhowtradedisputes

canrapidlyaffectSAFavailabilityandpricing.

Thesedevelopmentsreinforcetheneedtodiversify

feedstocks,productionpathwaysandgeographiestoimproveresilienceandreduceexposureto

externalshocks,highlightingtheincreasinglyimportantlinksbetweencleanfuels,energyresilienceandenergysecurity.

Tradeandindustrialpolicydevelopmentslast

yearfurthershapedtheoperatingenvironmentforaviation.ICAOremainedafocalpointin

bilateralandmultilateralnegotiations,reflectingthestrategicimportanceofaviation.However,amorecomplextradelandscapewithcountriesstrengtheningtheirdomesticmanufacturing

capacity(includingaircraftproduction,fuelsandenergyinfrastructure)isreshapingcompetitivedynamicsandinfluencinglong-termfleetand

infrastructureplanningacrossregions.

Despitetheseheadwinds,2025wascharacterizedbysustainedindustryengagementandwillingnesstocollaborate.Supportforcleaneraviationremainsstrongwithinindustryandgovernments,and

fewplayersexpectthesectortoretreatfromits

overarchingnet-zeroambitionatthisstage.Instead,attentionisshiftingtowardsadjustingthepathwaytoreflectmarketrealities,prioritizecost-effective

solutionsandremovepracticalbottlenecks.

Asthesectorenters2026,amorepragmatic

approachtosustainabilityissettodominate

industrydiscussions.Keyprioritiesinclude

identifyingthemostcost-effectivedecarbonizationpathways,strengtheningenergyandsupply-chainresilience,improvingpolicycoordination,and

leveragingdigitalizationandartificialintelligence

(AI)toenhanceefficiency.Convertingambition

intodeliverywillrequiregreaterpublic-private

collaborationonthesetopics,aswellasregulatorystabilityandcoordinatedactionacrossregionstoaccelerateprogressatscale.

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20269

Ambitiouspragmatism

Progressinsustainableaviation

technologyandpolicybringsoptimism,butpricechallengesandregional

disparitiesdemandgreaterpragmatism.

Through2025andearly2026,theWorld

EconomicForumhasgatheredinputfrommore

than100organizationsinitsaviationecosystem

togaugeindustryprogresstowardsnetzeroin

2025andconfidenceinthesector’scontinuing

decarbonizationin2026.Aspartofthis

engagement,theForumhasconsulted40chief

executiveofficers(CEOs)andseniorrepresentativestohelpinformthisreport.

Aswiththefirsteditionofthisreport,

GlobalAviation

SustainabilityOutlook2025

,this2026edition

presentsoverarchingperspectivescapturedduring

industryengagementinChapter1,reflections

andexpectationsontechnologydevelopmentin

Chapter2,policyandgeopoliticaltrendsin

Chapter3,economichighlightsinChapter4and

widerindustrytrendsinChapter5.Formoredetailsonthereport’smethodology,seeAppendix2.

Asacomplementtotheshort-termperspectivespresentedinthisreport,thispublicationalso

includesalonger-termviewontheevolutionof

thesustainableaviationfuels(SAF)market,writtenincollaborationwithHSBC.Thisispresentedin

Appendix1.

1

1.1

Overallprogressin2025

Lastyear’sreporthighlighted“cautiousoptimism”regardingexpectationsforprogresstowards

aviationdecarbonizationin2025.

Thesurveycarriedoutduring2025forthis

year’sreportcapturedperspectivesonwhetherthoseoptimisticexpectationsweremet.Despiteheadwinds,theresultsshowthattheprogressachievedwas,onaverage,inlinewiththeinitialexpectationsofindustrystakeholders.

Someactorshighlightedthesteadyincrease

inSAFusageandthedevelopmentofpolicy

supportunderpinningit,includingcommitments

toprogressiveSAFmandatesinamultitudeof

countriesandmarkets.Ontheotherhand,less-

satisfiedrespondentsvoiceddiscontentmentwithSAF’shighpremiumsandslowproductiongrowth.

1.2

Nearlyhalf

ofrespondents

totheForum’s

surveyofsenior

aviationexecutivesexpressed

optimismthat

thesectorwill

makemeaningfulprogresstowardsdecarbonizationoverthenextyear.

Expectationsfor2026

NearlyhalfofrespondentstotheForum’ssurveyofsenioraviationexecutivesattheendof2025

andbeginningof2026expressedoptimismthat

theaviationsectorwillmakemeaningfulprogresstowardsdecarbonizationoverthenextyear.Thismarksaslightdecreaseinconfidencecomparedtolastyear.Thesameresultsindicatethataroundone-thirdofrespondentsfeelpessimisticabout

decarbonization’sprogressthisyear,withthe

remainderexpressinganeutralview(seeFigure1).

Whileanoptimisticviewstillprevailsamongindustryleaders,thereisanemergingconsensusacross

thestakeholdersconsultedforthisreportthata

morepragmaticapproachtodecarbonizationisnowneeded.So,whilethetargetsandambitionshavenotbudged,thepathtoachievethem

mayrequiremodifyingtoaddressroadblocks,bothdecarbonization-specificandsystemic.

Latestindustryanalysisvalidatesthis“ambitious

pragmatism”:achievingnet-zeroaviationby2050isstillattainable,butthesectorneedstopulltogethertomaintainthemomentum.2

GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook202610

Veryoptimistic.Somewhatoptimistic.Neutral●SomewhatpessimisticVerypessimistic

Source:WorldEconomicForum,surveyofaviationC-suiteexecutives,December2025/January2026.

FIGURE1Globalaviationsustainabilityannualsurvey–optimism(%)

Lookingaheadat2026,howoptimisticareyouthattheaviationsectorwillmake

meaningfulprogresstowardsdecarbonization?

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

1.3

Theaviation

industryhas

seencontinuous

collaborationvia

ICAO,ensuringthatthesector’scurrentclimateambitionsandnet-zero

goalshavebeen

maintainedwithoutbacktracking.

Driversofoptimism

Thereareseveralkeytrendsbackinganoptimisticoutlookforprogressindecarbonizingaviation

during2026:

Positivepolicyandmarketdevelopments

Industryleadersanticipatepositivemovesinpolicyandmarketdevelopmentsacrossseveralregions,especiallyAsia-Pacific,mainlandChinaand,with

somecaveats,Europe.Incontrasttomounting

concernsaroundtheglobalfragmentationof

multilateralcooperationaffectingseveralindustriesandwiderclimatechangenegotiations,theaviationindustryhasseencontinuouscollaborationvia

ICAO,whichhasensuredthatthesector’scurrentclimateambitionsandnet-zerogoalshavebeenmaintainedwithoutbacktracking.

Growingimportanceofenergysecurity

Theincreasinglyprominentissueofenergysecurityinpoliticalagendasisexpectedtohavepositive

consequencesonthedevelopmentoflocalandregionalmarketsforSAF,includingintheUS.

Thisisbecausegovernmentsandsupplychains

arerampingupdiversificationeffortsinenergyprocurement,suchasthroughloweringtheirdependenceonoilandfuelimports.

Theopportunitiesofeconomicgrowth

Thisishappeningatatimeofindustrygrowth,

asmoreandmoreregionsarelookingtoboost

theiraviationindustriesviapassengerandcargo

volumes,whichbothreachednewrecordsin2025.Acrossregions,governmentshaveapprovedairportexpansionplans,aslongastheyincludeagreaterrelianceonSAFandincludesustainabilityintheir

growthprojections.

ConfidenceinnewSAFpathways

Respondentsexpressedconfidenceinfurther

technologicaldevelopment,maturityandadoptionofawiderarrayofpromisingsustainableaviation

solutionsbeyondHEFA,3suchascarbonremovals,wastecircularity,andanalyticaltoolspoweredbyartificialintelligence(AI)toquantifyandoptimize

emissionsalongtheentirevaluechain.

1.4

Challengesahead

TheForum’ssurveyresultshavehighlightedseveralheadwindsbuffetingaviation’sdecarbonization

journey,inlargepartstemmingfromwidernon-aviation-specifictrends.

Consistencyofpolicysupport

Executivesconsultedforthesurveyvoiced

concernsaroundtheconsistencyofpoliticalandgovernmentsupportforthesustainabilityagendaglobally.Thisfactorisnotaviation-specific,but

ratherabroaderreckoningthatotherpolitical

priorities,namelydefencespendingandenergy

affordability,mightposeachallengetotheaviationsector’sabilitytorelyonpredictablepolicysupportwithinandacrossseveraljurisdictions.

Growingglobaleconomicuncertainty

Relatedtotheprevailingstateofgeopolitical

turbulenceisthechallengeofcompetingbusinessprioritiesamidgrowingeconomicuncertainty.In

January2026,theInternationalMonetaryFund

(IMF)projectedglobalgrowthof3.3%for2026,withglobalinflationexpectedtofallbelow4%.4

However,despitethisrelativelypositiveeconomic

outlook,intractableconflictsandescalating