瑞银-全球股票策略：为何我们更偏好中国与美国而非日本-Global Equity Strategy Why we prefer China and US to Japan-20260430

a§ WhywepreferUSandChinatoJapaportfolio)AndrewGarthwaite婚§2 norm).a§3 4 AndrewGarthwaitea§4 2monthdisruptionPreferenceUnhedgedPreferenceUnhedged++:Overweight+SmalloverweightBBenchmark-Smallunderweight--UnderweightWhyunderweight?4.54.03.5WorldContinentalEurope0%0%50%40%30%20%10%婚§5201120142017202080-24-32-24-32-820112012201420162017201920212022202420264840322480-8-1641-2-52.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%a§6JapanfulltimeworkersearniJapanfulltimeworkersearni3.8%2.8%1.8%0.8%-0.2%-1.2%-2.2%-3.2%2002200520082011201420172020202320260PartParttimeworkers,%oftotal(firmswithmorethan30workers)34%Parttimeworkers,%oftotal(firmswithmorethan5workers)32%30%28%26%24%22%20%20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026a§7 7654.543220182019202020212022202320242025202686420Regions/MCIraterateM1vsGDPgrowthdev.fromtrendAggregateZWeights50%25%25%100%-1.8%-7.2%-17%1.3%-1.2%-4.5%0.11-0.2%2.4%7.3%-0.20.6%-0.7%10%-0.617.3%-10.1%17.8%-0.9UBSforecastsForwardcurveDifference1.001.251.753.643.392.8950.881.181.893.633.563.412.142.542.56a§81.001.00Average(+/-s.d.)0.950.900.850.800.750.70201620182020202220242026120%110%100%90%80%70%60%20142016201820202022ProportionofJapanmaProportionofJapanmarkettradingbelowbookvalue60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202665%60,00060,000AnnouncedBuybacks50,00040,00030,00020,00010,00004.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%2007200920112013201520a§9 20212021202220222023202320242024202520252020-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.5090%70%50%30%10%-10%-30%-50%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%1992199519982001200420072010201320162019202220252007200920112013201520172019100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202650-10-15-20-25-30-22-128婚§10 20142017202020232020.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.9-1.12011FinancialInstitutions&Others50-5-10-15-20a§25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%3monthannualised,foreignbuyingofJapaneseJapanJapanminusEuropecrowdinghistoric2.52.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.52017201820192020202120222023202420252026400350300250200020052007200920112013201520172019202120232025210.50-0.53.503.002.502.000.500.00ColombiaColombiaAustraliaa§ TotalValuationWeights0%20%70%0.70-1.650.830.540.95-0.210.58-0.530.23-0.950.520.680.44-1.320.02-0.610.40-0.180.55-0.27-0.23-0.19-1.050.78-1.660.01-0.66-0.56FinancialassetsFinancialassetsheldbyhou60%50%40%30%20%10%0%019982001200420072010●a§80400Numberofcompaniesreceivingshareholderproposals80400696422014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420256,2406,2405,6104,9103,8002,33014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202513,2009,2009,7008,77073012%12%3.115%11%9%2.719%4.320%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%4.54.0-55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%5%0%婚§14 201520172019202120232025a§2012201420162018202020222024202615%10%5%0%-5%-10%2010-10024680.90.82004200720102013201620192022202530%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%35%25%15%5%-5%-15%-25%201020122014201620182020202220242026婚§16 ScenarioScenario1:5weekdisruptionScenario2:2-monthdisruptionScenario3:Extendeddisruption20262027Cumualtive0.2%-0.2%-0.6%-1.0%CumulativeRealGDP(YoY)0.1%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%MexicoChinaTaiwanHungarySouthAfrica-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%a§ 0.20.0-0.2-0.40.830.560.610.370.350.360.290.11-0.06-0.150.7%0.2%-0.3%-0.8%0.7%0.2%-0.3%-0.8%-1.3%-1.8%-2.3%-2.8%-3.3%-3.8%-4.3% 2009201120132015201720192021202320250.900.800.700.600.500.40201620182020202220242026a§ 957595755535-5-25-45-65ChinaIndustrialTotalprofits(%YoY)9998201220122014201620182020202220242026100%75%50%25%0%-25%-50%5020062008201020122014201620182020202220242026婚§19 growthelsewhere0%-10%-20%-30%1%0%-1%70%60%50%40%4%3%30%20%80%2%5%8%6%4%2%0%200520072009201120%a§6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%Top40globalTop40globalinvestorChinaallocation2.5210.5027.520.427.520.49.04.25.010.015.020.025.030.0 London Guangzhou Frankfurt Mumbai Melbourne ChinanationalChinalowertiercities HoustonMetArea ChicagoMetArea0.0GlobalComparisionofprice-to-incomeratio婚§21 20112013201520172019202120232025804008350%Japan50%Japan45%Investment,%ofGDP40%Japanpeakin1973at38%at36%35%30%25%20%15%10%1/1/551/1/661/1/771/1/881/1/9916%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-10-30-50-7060%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026a§ Whattobuy? 200720092011201320152017201920212023202570%50%30%10%-10%-30%-50%-70%20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026400-40-6050%45%40%35%30%25%20%5%0%婚§2330%25%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%shares3mearningsbreadthrel.sharesperformancerel.market,Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26mktyoy%chg,rhsChinaChinaAA20152016201820192021202220242025ArgentinaSouthAfrica67%77%7%5%3%1%-1%-3%-5%37%47%57%a§ 2424MSCIJapanperfrelAcworld,yoy%chg,($,terms)JapanminusGlobalcompositePMIneword80-8-16-2420112014201720202023202641-2-5-836%40035%35034%30033%25032%20031%15030%10029%5028%02013201520172019202120232025ab 婚§26婚§27 12-MonthRatingDefinition254%24%40%21%6%21%a§ 12-monthrating2828,18a4,5,28,18b,16a,16b28,7,6a,6bKweichowMoutaiMurataManufacturing2828TaiwanSemiconductorManufacturing28,8b,16b28ToyotaMotor2,4,5,28,7,6c,16ba§12-monthratingZijinMiningGroup-H2,13, 婚§30