暨南大学项目管理chapter 7 managing risk

管理学院

SchoolofManagement佟瑞EdwardTong，

MPM，MBA2026/5/41EdwardTong@CopyrightreservedJinanUniversity7–3WhereWeAreNow2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity4WhatisRisk?2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity5DefinitionOfRisk

Risk=

f(Likelihood,Impact)LikelihoodistheprobabilityofoccurrenceImpactistheamountatstakeEvent2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity6RiskDefinedRiskisanypotentialthreatoroccurrencewhichmaypreventyoufromachievingyourdefinedbusinessobjectives.Itmayaffecttimescales,cost,quality,orbenefits.

Allprojectsareexposedtoriskinsomeform,but

theextentofwhichwillvaryconsiderably.

2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity7WhatisRiskManagement?

“Generallyaccepted”definition...Theprocessofidentifying,analyzingandrespondingtoriskeventsduringtheprojectSEIversion...[1]Continuousriskmanagementisasoftwareengineeringpracticewithprocesses,methodsandtoolsformanagingprojectrisks2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity8TheMillionDollarQuestionIsriskabadthing?

2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity9Uncertainty=RiskorOpportunity2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity10WhatisanUncertainty?

Itisthesumofunknownsforeachproject2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity11Uncertainty,Opportunity,andRiskStartProjectCompletionOutcome

(Product)Unknown(Uncertainty)Unfavorable(Risk)Favorable(Opportunity)2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity12TheRealWorldIdentifyAnalyzePlanTrackControlCommunicatePM508-SessionOne2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity13TheRealWorldIdentifyAnalyzePlanTrackControlIdentifyAnalyzePlanTrackControlIdentifyAnalyzePlanTrackControlIdentifyAnalyzePlanTrackControlCommunicateCommunicateCommunicateCommunicateRiskmanagementOverandOverandOverAgain...2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity14ContinuousRiskManagementProcessPrepareIdentifyAnalyzePlanTrackControlCommunicateObtainSponsorshipInform&EducatePro.TeamIdentifyKeyProjectFactorsDevelopBaselineRiskMgt.PlanIdentifyPotentialRisksEstablishRiskCategoriesEstablishProb/ImpactDefinitionsEvaluateImpactofRisksRankRisksEvaluateProbabilityofRisksSelectRiskstoMitigateSelectMitigationMethodsCreateTracking&ControlPlanCompleteCost/BenefitAnalysisTrack&ReportStatusTakeCorrectiveActionsAdjustControlPlan

asReq’dDocumentLessonslearnedCloseRisksRiskManagement2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity15ExampleofRiskCategoriesPlanDesignTestImplementTotalRiskBasedonProjectPhases-

2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity16ExampleofRiskCategoriesPeopleMarketTechnicalFinancialTotalRiskTailoredtoProductDevelopmentProject2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity17ImpactDefinition

ExampleHi

Performance,Cost,&

ScheduleImpacted

Medium

Cost&Schedule Impacted

Low低

ScheduleImpactedRiskManagement2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity18ProbabilityDefinition

ExampleHi

Morethan70%likely

Medium

30-70%likely

Low

Lessthan30%likely

RiskManagement2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity19SimpleRiskMatrix369246123Low MedHiProbabilityImpactHiMed

LowListofRisks

(inCategories)RiskManagement2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity203.MajorImpactonprojectscheduleorcost.Majorimpactonbenefits.2.Majorimpactonprojectscheduleorcost.Minorimpactonbenefits1.Minorimpactonprojectscheduleorcost.Noimpactonbenefits.SeverityofImpactUnlikely<15%FairlyLikelyVeryLikelyAlmostCertain>85%LowLowHIGHMediumMediumMediumMediumMediumHIGHMediumMediumHIGHLikelihoodofEventHappeningSource:Buttrick,R.(1997).TheProjectWorkout.Pitman,UKMoreComplexRiskMatrixRiskManagement2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity21AnotherExample

RiskMatrixRiskManagement2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity22WaystoRespondtoaGivenRiskAcceptMitigateAvoidPM508-SessionThree2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity23PMPtestbWhichtechniqueisusedmostfrequentlyinriskidentification?A.InterviewingB.BrainstormingC.SimulationD.Decision-tree2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity24PMPtestcWhichofthefollowingisNOTanexampleofexternalrisks?------A.InflationB.StrikeC.PoorstaffassignmentD.Changeofgovernment2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity25Insurance(etc.)RiskPlanning–ResponseDevelopmentToolsTransferringtherisk...

Examples....Sharingtherisk...

2026/5/4EdwardTong,JinanUniversity26..AQuote...Hethatwillnotsailtillall

dangersareovermustnever

puttosea.ThomasFuller,1608-1661ChaplaininextraordinarytoCharlesII7–27RiskManagementProcessRiskUncertainorchanceeventsthatplanningcannotovercomeorcontrol.RiskManagementAproactiveattempttorecognizeandmanageinternaleventsandexternalthreatsthataffectthelikelihoodofaproject’ssuccess.Whatcangowrong(riskevent).Howtominimizetheriskevent’simpact(consequences).Whatcanbedonebeforeaneventoccurs(anticipation).Whattodowhenaneventoccurs(contingencyplans).7–28TheRiskEventGraphFIGURE7.17–29RiskManagement’sBenefitsAproactiveratherthanreactiveapproach.Reducessurprisesandnegativeconsequences.Preparestheprojectmanagertotakeadvantage

ofappropriaterisks.Providesbettercontroloverthefuture.Improveschancesofreachingprojectperformanceobjectiveswithinbudgetandontime.7–30TheRiskManagementProcessFIGURE7.27–31ManagingRiskStep1:RiskIdentificationGeneratealistofpossiblerisksthroughbrainstorming,problemidentificationandriskprofiling.Macrorisksfirst,thenspecificeventsStep2:RiskAssessmentScenarioanalysisforeventprobabilityandimpactRiskassessmentmatrixFailureModeandEffectsAnalysis(FMEA)ProbabilityanalysisDecisiontrees,NPV,andPERTSemiquantitativescenarioanalysis7–32TheRiskBreakdownStructure(RBS)FIGURE7.37–33PartialRiskProfileforProductDevelopmentProjectFIGURE7.47–34DefinedConditionsforImpactScalesofaRiskonMajorProjectObjectives(Examplesfornegativeimpactsonly)FIGURE7.57–35RiskAssessmentFormFIGURE7.6FailureModeandEffectsAnalysis(FMEA)

Impact×Probability×Detection=RiskValue7–36RiskSeverityMatrixFIGURE7.7FailureModeandEffectsAnalysis(FMEA)

Impact×Probability×Detection=RiskValue7–37ManagingRisk(cont’d)Step3:RiskResponseDevelopmentMitigatingRiskReducingthelikelihoodanadverseeventwilloccur.Reducingimpactofadverseevent.AvoidingRiskChangingtheprojectplantoeliminatetheriskorcondition.TransferringRiskPayingapremiumtopasstherisktoanotherparty.RequiringBuild-Own-Operate-Transfer(BOOT)provisions.RetainingRiskMakingaconsciousdecisiontoaccepttherisk.7–38ContingencyPlanningContingencyPlanAnalternativeplanthatwillbeusedifapossibleforeseenriskeventactuallyoccurs.Aplanofactionsthatwillreduceormitigatethenegativeimpact(consequences)ofariskevent.RisksofNotHavingaContingencyPlanHavingnoplanmayslowmanagerialresponse.Decisionsmadeunderpressurecanbepotentiallydangerousandcostly.7–39RiskandContingencyPlanningTechnicalRisksBackupstrategiesifchosentechnologyfails.Assessingwhethertechnicaluncertainties

canberesolved.ScheduleRisksUseofslackincreasestheriskofalateprojectfinish.Imposeddurationdates(absoluteprojectfinishdate)Compressionofprojectschedulesduetoashortenedprojectdurationdate.7–40RiskResponseMatrixFIGURE7.87–41RiskandContingencyPlanning(cont’d)CostsRisksTime/costdependencylinks:costsincreasewhenproblemstakelongertosolvethanexpected.Decidingtousethescheduletosolvecashflowproblemsshouldbeavoided.Priceprotectionrisks(ariseininputcosts)increaseifthedurationofaprojectisincreased.FundingRisksChangesinthesupplyoffundsfortheprojectcandramaticallyaffectthelikelihoodofimplementationorsuccessfulcompletionofaproject.7–42OpportunityManagementTacticsExploitSeekingtoeliminatetheuncertaintyassociatedwithanopportunitytoensurethatitdefinitelyhappens.ShareAllocatingsomeoralloftheownershipofanopportunitytoanotherpartywhoisbestabletocapturetheopportunityforthebenefitoftheproject.EnhanceTakingactiontoincreasetheprobabilityand/orthepositiveimpactofanopportunity.AcceptBeingwillingtotakeadvantageofanopportunityifitoccurs,butnottakingactiontopursueit.7–43ContingencyFundingandTimeBuffersContingencyFundsFundstocoverprojectrisks—identifiedandunknown.SizeoffundsreflectsoverallriskofaprojectBudgetreservesArelinkedtotheidentifiedrisksofspecificworkpackages.ManagementreservesArelargefundstobeusedtocovermajorunforeseenrisks(e.g.,changeinprojectscope)ofthetotalproject.TimeBuffersAmountsoftimeusedtocompensateforunplanneddelaysintheprojectschedule.Severerisk,merge,noncritical,andscarceresourceactivities7–44ContingencyFundEstimate($000s)TABLE7.17–45ManagingRisk(cont’d)Step4:RiskResponseControlRiskcontrolExecutionoftheriskresponsestrategyMonitoringoftriggeringeventsInitiatingcontingencyplansWatchingfornewrisksEstablishingaChangeManagementSystemMonitoring,tracking,andreportingriskFosteringanopenorganizationenvironmentRepeatingriskidentification/assessmentexercisesAssigninganddocumentingresponsibilityformanagingrisk7–46ChangeManagementControlSourcesofChangeProjectscopechangesImplementationofcontingencyplansImprovementchanges7–47ChangeControlSystemProcessIdentifyproposedchanges.Listexpectedeffectsofproposedchanges

onscheduleandbudget.Review,evaluate,andapproveordisapprove

ofchangesformally.Negotiateandresolveconflictsofchange,condition,andcost.Communicatechangestopartiesaffected.Assignresponsibilityforimplementingchange.Adjustmasterscheduleandbudget.Trackallchangesthataretobeimplemented7–48TheChangeControlProcessFIGURE7.97–49BenefitsofaChangeControlSystemInconsequentialchangesarediscouraged

bytheformalprocess.Costsofchangesaremaintainedinalog.IntegrityoftheWBSandperformancemeasures

ismaintained.Allocationanduseofbudgetandmanagementreservefundsaretracked.Responsibilityforimplementationisclarified.Effectofchangesisvisibletoallpartiesinvolved.Implementationofchangeismonitored.Scopechangeswillbequicklyreflectedinbaselineandperformancemeasures.7–50SampleChangeRequestFormFIGURE7.107–51ChangeRequestLogFIGURE7.117–52KeyTermsAvoidingriskBudgetreserveChangemanagementsystemContingencyplanManagementreserveMitigatingriskOpportunity

RiskRiskbreakdownstructure(RBS)RiskregisterRiskprofileRiskseveritymatrixScenarioanalysisSharingriskTimebufferTransferringriskAppendix7.1PERTandPERTSimulation7–54PERT—ProgramEvaluationReviewTechniqueAssumeseachactivitydurationhasarangethatstatisticallyfollowsabetadistribution.Usesthreetimeestimatesforeachactivity:optimistic,pessimistic,andaweightedaveragetorepresentactivitydurations.Knowingtheweightedaverageandvariancesforeachactivityallowstheprojectplannertocomputetheprobabilityofmeetingdifferentprojectdurations.7–55ActivityandProjectFrequencyDistributionsFIGUREA7.17–56ActivityTimeCalculationsTheweightedaverageactivitytimeiscomputedbythefollowingformula:(7.1)7–57ActivityTimeCalculations(cont’d)Thevariabilityintheactivitytimeestimatesisapproximatedbythefollowingequations:Thestandarddeviationfortheactivity:Thestandarddeviationfortheproject:Notethestandarddeviationoftheactivityissquaredinthisequation;thisisalsocalledvariance.Thissumincludesonlyactivitiesonthecriticalpath(s)orpathbeingreviewed.(7.2)(7.3)7–58ActivityTimesandVariancesTABLEA7.17–59ProbabilityofCompletingtheProjectTheequationbelowisusedtocomputethe“Z”valuefoundinstatisticaltables(Z=numberofstandarddeviationsfromthemean),which,inturn,tellstheprobabilityofcompletingtheprojectinthetimespecified.(7.4)7–60HypotheticalNetworkFIGUREA7.27–61HypotheticalNetwork(cont’d)FIGUREA7.2(cont’d)7–62PossibleProjectDurationProbabilityprojectiscompletedbeforescheduledtime(TS)of67unitsProbabilityprojectiscompletedbythe60thunittimeperiod(TS)FIGUREA7.37–63ZValuesandProbabilitiesTABLEA7.22026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity641Anuncertaineventorconditionthat,ifitoccurs,hasapositiveornegativeeffectonaprojectobjectivesistermed.

c

A.

Randomchance

B.

Adisaster

C.

Risk

D.

Hazard

E.

Badluck2026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity652Thechancesofariskeventoccurringasaprojectproceedsthroughitslifecycletendsto

e

A.

Slowlyrise

B.

Dropsharplyandthenlevelout

C.

Risesharplyandthenlevelout

D.

Remainaboutthesame

E.

Slowlydrop2026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity663Thecostimpactofariskeventoccurringasaprojectproceedsthroughitslifecycletendsto

a

A.

Slowlyrise

B.

Dropsharplyandthenlevelout

C.

Risesharplyandthenlevelout

D.

Remainaboutthesame

E.

Slowlydrop2026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity674Theattempttorecognizeandmanagepotentialandunforeseentroublespotsthatmayoccurwhenaprojectisimplementedisknownas

b

A.

Riskforecasting

B.

Riskmanagement

C.

Contingencyplanning

D.

Scenarioanalysis

E.

Disasterprotection52026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity68

Whichofthefollowingisnotoneofthestepsintheriskmanagementprocess?

d

A.

Riskresponsedevelopment

B.

Riskassessment

C.

Riskidentification

D.

Risktracking

E.

Riskresponsecontrol62026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity69Theinitialstepintheriskmanagementprocessistoc

A.

Determinethelevelofacceptablerisk

B.

Assesstheriskpotential

C.

Identifytherisks

D.

Setasidebudgetfundsformanagingtherisks

E.

Appointariskmanager72026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity70Onecommonmistakemadeearlyintheriskidentificationprocessisto

d

A.

Notallpossibilitiesareconsidered

B.

Participantsareover-optimistic

C.

Participantsareover-pessimistic

D.

Focusonobjectivesandnotontheeventsthatcouldproduceconsequences.

E.

Toomuchattentionisgiventopastevents82026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity71

Inthebeginningthefocusofriskmanagementshouldbeonrisksthat

a

A.

Impactthewholeproject

B.

Impactthecriticalpath

C.

Areknown

D.

Havethegreatestcostimpact

E.

Havethegreatestscheduleimpact92026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity72The1999NASAMarsClimateOrbiterisanexampleof

d

A.

Disasteravoidancethroughproactiveriskmanagement

B.

Murphy'sLaw

C.

Properuseofcriticalthinking

D.

Mismanagedriskcontrol

E.

Usinghistoricalrecordstoassessrisk102026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity73Whichofthefollowingwouldnotbeconsideredathreat?

b

A.

Inflation

B.

Meetingtheprojectschedule

C.

Internationaldisruptions

D.

Economicconditions

E.

Competition112026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity74Alistofquestionsthataddresstraditionalareasofuncertaintyonaprojectistermedarisk

a

A.

Riskprofile

B.

Questionnaire

C.

Research

D.

Query

E.

Checklist122026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity75

Whichofthefollowingistypicallyincludedinriskprofiles?

d

A.

Managementaspects

B.

Marketaspects

C.

Technicalaspects

D.

BothAandCareincluded

E.

A,B,andCareallincluded132026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity76Allofthefollowingareincludedintheriskidentificationprocessexcept

c

A.

Customers

B.

Subcontractors

C.

Competitors

D.

Vendors

E.

Noneoftheseareincluded142026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity77Oneofthekeystosuccessinriskidentificationis

a

A.

Criticalthinking

B.

Optimism

C.

Pessimism

D.

A"cando"attitude

E.

Allofthesearecorrect152026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity78Theeasiestandmostcommonlyusedtechniqueforanalyzingrisksis_____analysis.

b

A.

Probability

B.

Scenario

C.

Payback

D.

Risk/reward

E.

Impact162026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity79

Ariskprofileisalistofquestionsthataddresstraditionalareasofuncertaintyonaprojectthatanswersdevelopedfrom:

d

A.

Whentheeventmightoccurintheproject

B.

Chancesoftheeventoccurring

C.

Interactionwithotherpartsoftheprojectorwithotherprojects

D.

Fromprevious,similarprojects

E.

Magnitudeorseverityoftheevent'simpact172026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity80Theriskmanagementtoolthatisdividedintothreecolor-codedzonesrepresentingmajor,moderate,andminorrisksistherisk

e

A.

Assessmentform

B.

Responsibilitymatrix

C.

Scenarioassessment

D.

Impactassessment

E.

Riskseveritymatrix182026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity81Theriskassessmentformcontainsallofthefollowingexcept

c

A.

Likelihoodoftheriskeventoccurring

B.

Potentialimpactoftheriskevent

C.

Whowilldetecttheoccurrenceoftheriskevent.

D.

Difficultyofdetectingtheoccurrenceoftheriskevent

E.

Whentheriskeventmayoccur192026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity82Thetwoscalesofariskseveritymatrixmeasure

e

A.

Time,cost

B.

Cost,schedule

C.

Impact,cost

D.

Time,impact

E.

Likelihood,impact202026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity83Whichofthefollowingisnotoneoftheprobabilityanalysistools?

a

A.

Ratio/rangeanalysis

B.

Decisiontree

C.

PERTsimulation

D.

PERT

E.

Alloftheseareprobabilityanalysistools212026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity84

Thisriskassessmenttoolisavariationoftheriskseveritymatrixthatincludestheeaseofdetectionforeachoftheidentifiedrisks.

b

A.

PERTsimulation

B.

FMEAanalysis

C.

Ratio/rangeanalysis

D.

Probabilityanalysis

E.

Semi-quantitativeanalysis222026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity85

WhichofthefollowingisnotincludedinaFailureModeandEffectsAnalysis?

e

A.

Impact

B.

Probability

C.

Detection

D.

Riskvalue

E.

Alloftheseareincluded232026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity86Whichofthefollowingisusedtoreviewactivityandprojectrisk?

c

A.

NPV

B.

S-curves

C.

PERT

D.

Decisiontrees

E.

Allofthesecanbeused242026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity87Whichofthefollowingisnotoneofthepotentialresponsestoaspecificriskevent?

c

A.

Mitigating

B.

Retaining

C.

Ignoring

D.

Transferring

E.

Sharing252026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreservedJinanUniversity88

ARiskResponseMatrixcontainsallofthefollowingexcept

e

A.

Contingencyplan

B.

Trigger

C.

Whoisresponsible?

D.

Response

E.

Alloftheseareincludedinthematrix262026/5/4EdwardTong@2008copyreserved