中国必选消费品3月需求报告春节红利消退餐饮链修复放缓

图1HTI消费行业收入预测（亿元），HTI图2主要消费品产量同比数据（%），HTI图3次高端及以上白酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图4次高端及以上白酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）次高端及以上白酒单月预测收入及增速600 30.0%500 20.0%400 300 200 100 0 单月收入 单月同比（右轴）次高端及以上白酒累计预测收入及增速5000 20.0%4000 10.0%30002000 0.0%1000 -10.0%0 累计收入 累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI图5大众及以下白酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图6大众及以下白酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）大众及以下白酒单月预测收入及增速400 10.0%300 0.0%200 100 -30.0%0 单月收入 单月同比（右轴）大众及以下白酒累计预测收入及增速3000 20.0%25002000 0.0%15001000 -20.0%5000 -40.0%累计收入 累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI图7啤酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图8啤酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）啤酒行业单月预测收入及增速250 25.0%200 20.0%15.0%150 10.0%100 50 0.0%-5.0%0 单月收入 单月同比（右轴）啤酒行业累计预测收入及增速2000 15.0%1500 10.0%1000 5.0%500 -5.0%0 累计收入 累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI图9调味品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图10调味品行业累计收入预测（亿元）调味品行业单月预测收入及增速调味品行业累计预测收入及增速30008.0%6.0%图9调味品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图10调味品行业累计收入预测（亿元）调味品行业单月预测收入及增速调味品行业累计预测收入及增速30008.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%010.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%单月收入单月同比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI2023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052024-072024-092024-112025-012025-032025-052025-072025-092025-112026-012026-03图11乳制品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图12乳制品行业累计收入预测（亿元）乳制品行业单月预测收入及增速乳制品行业累计预测收入及增速60010.0%600010.0%5005.0%50004000.0%40005.0%300-5.0%30000.0%200-10.0%2000-5.0%1000-15.0%-20.0%10000-10.0%单月收入 单月同比（右轴）累计收入 累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI图13速冻食品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图14速冻食品行业累计收入预测（亿元）速冻食品行业单月预测收入及增速200 30.0%150100 10.0%500 -10.0%单月收入 单月同比（右轴）速冻食品行业累计预测收入及增速1200 30.0%1000 20.0%800600 10.0%400 0.0%2000 -10.0%累计收入 累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI图15软饮料行业单月收入预测（亿元）图16软饮料行业累计收入预测（亿元）软饮料行业单月预测收入及增速1200 8.0%1000 6.0%800600 4.0%400 2.0%2000 0.0%单月收入 单月同比（右轴）软饮料行业累计预测收入及增速8000 6000 4000 2000 0 累计收入 累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI图17餐饮行业单月收入预测（亿元）图18餐饮行业累计收入预测（亿元）餐饮行业单月预测收入及增速200 40.0%150 30.0%100 20.0%10.0%50 0.0%0 单月收入 单月同比（右轴）餐饮行业累计预测收入及增速2000 30.0%1500 20.0%1000 10.0%500 0 累计收入 累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI中国必需消费APPENDIX1SummaryAccordingtoHaitongInternational'sforecast,InMarch2026,eightessentialconsumergoodssectorsshowedmixedperformance,withfourrecordinggrowthandfourexperiencingdeclines.Frozenfoods,condiments,foodservices,andsoftdrinkspostedpositivegrowth,whilemid-to-high-endandpremiumbaijiu,mass-marketandlower-tierbaijiu,dairyproducts,andbeersawnegativegrowth.Beershiftedfrommonth-over-monthgrowthtoadecline,whilethedeclinesinothersectorseitherstabilizedornarrowed;amongthesectorswithpositivegrowth,onlysoftdrinksmaintaineditsgrowthratewithoutanynarrowing.WebelievethisisprimarilyduetothefadingoftheSpringFestivalconsumptionboost,aweakeningrecoveryinthefoodservicesector,sluggishbeersalesattheretaillevel,anunevenrecoveryinbaijiu,stabilizingdemandfordairyproductsastheybottomout,andsteadygrowthinsoftdrinksastheyentertheirpeakseason.Mid-to-PremiumandAboveBaijiu:InMarch,themid-to-high-endandpremiumbaijiusectorgeneratedrevenueof29.5billionyuan,ayear-on-yeardecreaseof14.5%;cumulativerevenueforJanuary–Marchreached120.5billionyuan,down14.3%year-on-year.Thepricingstructureforpremiumbaijiuhasstabilized,andtheresilienceofessentialconsumptionhasbecomeevident,withgenuineconsumptiondemandfromhouseholdsandindividualscontinuingtobereleased.Mid-to-high-endbaijiucontinuedtofacepressureonbothvolumeandprice.Thiswasprimarilyduetotheslower-than-expectedrecoveryofbusinessconsumptionscenarios,compoundedbyaclearshiftindemandtowardbothendsofthemarketunderconsumptionsegmentation,andarelativelyslowpaceofchanneldestockingMass-MarketandBelowBaijiu:InMarch,theindustry’srevenueformass-marketandlower-tierbaijiuwas20.2billionyuan,down1.0%year-on-year;cumulativerevenuefromJanuarytoMarchwas60.5billionyuan,down1.5%year-on-year.InMarch,demandformass-marketbaijiuremainedrelativelyrobust,withdailypersonalconsumption,familygatherings,andbanquetsincountyandtownshipareassupportingthecoremarket.Channelsalesremainedsteady,andpricepointsweregenerallystable,demonstratingstrongresilienceasthesectorwasunderpinnedbyessentialconsumption.Beer:InMarch,thebeerindustrygeneratedrevenueof14.0billionyuan,down1.4%year-over-year;CumulativerevenueforJanuary–Marchwas46.2billionyuan,down1.5%year-over-year.OverallterminaldemandinMarchwasrelativelyweak,withsalesinconsumptionscenariossuchasrestaurantsandsupermarketsremainingsluggish,anddiscountinginterminalchannelsincreasingsignificantly.Astemperaturesgraduallyrise,theindustryisenteringthepeakseasonstockpilingcycle.Downstreamwillingnesstostockupissteadilyincreasing,andchannelrestockingisaccelerating,layingthefoundationforthereleaseofpeakseasondemandinthesecondquarter.Condiments:InMarch,thecondimentsindustrygeneratedrevenueof35.5billionyuan,a3.0%year-over-yearincrease;however,theyear-over-yeargrowthrateinMarchslowedcomparedtoFebruary.CumulativerevenueforJanuary–Marchreached123.9billionyuan,a4.0%year-over-yearincrease.AlthoughthecondimentsindustrymaintainedpositiverevenuegrowthinMarchduetotheongoingrecoveryofthefoodservicechannel,theyear-over-yeargrowthrateslowedsignificantlycomparedtoFebruary,influencedbyfactorssuchasthewaningofthepeakseason,increaseddiscountsintheconsumermarket,andaslowerrestockingpace.Therecoverytrendinthefoodservicechannelcontinued,withsteadydailyprocurementdemandfromsmallandmedium-sizedB2Bcustomers,whiledemandfromlargeB2Bandindustrialsectorsremainedstable.DairyProducts:InMarch,thedairyindustrygeneratedrevenueof33.9billionyuan,down0.9%year-over-year,withthemonth-over-monthdeclinenarrowing;cumulativerevenueforJanuary–Marchreached118.9billionyuan,down1.9%year-over-year.InMarch,theliquidmilkmarketremainedinaperiodofadjustment.Channelfeedbackindicatedthatdailyhouseholdconsumptionremainedrobust,butseasonalconsumptionfailedtoprovidesufficientmomentum.AsobservedinourMarchpricereport,theaverageonlineretaildiscountrateforliquidmilknarrowedby1.6percentagepointscomparedtoFebruary(from66.1%to64.5%),whilethemedianrateremainedunchangedat65.1%,indicatingthatmarketcompetitionisstabilizingandthepricingstructureisgraduallysteadying.FrozenFood:InMarch,thefrozenfoodsectorgeneratedrevenueof10.3billionyuan,up6.3%year-over-year;cumulativerevenueforJanuary–Marchreached39.3billionyuan,up7.9%year-over-year.Demandfordiningout,particularlyfordine-inservices,continuedtoimprove,providingasignificantboosttothefrozenfoodsector.中国必需消费Additionally,channelinventorieshadbeenatlowlevelsearlierintheperiod.Astherewerenomajorholidaysduringthemonth,demanddeclinedslightly,andpricediscountsincreasedsomewhat,whichisareasonablephenomenon.RisingpricesforsomecommoditiesinMarchpushedupproductioncosts,andproductpricesareexpectedtorisegraduallyinthefuture.SoftDrinks:InMarch,thesoftdrinkindustrygeneratedrevenueof48billionyuan,up3.2%year-over-year;cumulativerevenueforJanuary–Marchreached194billionyuan,up1.9%year-over-year.OurMarchpricereportindicatesthatsoftdrinkdiscountscontinuedtowidenmonth-over-month,withdiscountratesremainingatrelativelylowlevelssincethestartof2024—approximately18percentagepointslowerthanthesameperiodin2025—reflectingintensifiedmarketcompetition.Teabeveragessawdeeperdiscountsthanbottledwater.Accordingtoleadingcompanies,revenueandprofitsthroughMarchwereinlinewithexpectations,whilecarbonatedbeverageswereimpactedbyregionalpricecuts.Catering:InMarch,thefoodserviceindustrygeneratedrevenueof13.8billionyuan,up3.8%year-over-year;cumulativerevenueforJanuary–Marchreached44billionyuan,up3.6%year-over-year.Sincestabilizingandreboundinginthefourthquarterof2025,thefoodserviceindustryhasbenefitedfromtherecoveryofconsumptionscenariosandpolicysupport.Theindustry’scompetitivelandscapehasimproved,withrisingchainpenetrationandexpansionintolower-tiermarketsdrivingnewgrowthforleadingcompanies.SinceMarch2025,demandinthefoodandbeveragesectorhasshownasustainedyear-over-yeardeclineforseveralmonths;startingthismonth,industrygrowthisexpectedtobenefitfromalow-baseeffect.RiskWarning:Economicgrowthfallingbelowexpectations,slowincomegrowth,foodsafetyissues.附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(HTIRL),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(HTISCL),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(HTISG),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，闻宏伟，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,HongweiWen,certifythati)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，吴岱禹，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,JasmineWucertifythatitheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).国泰海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称国泰海通）在过去12个月内参与了300999.CHand000895.CH的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、国泰海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、国泰海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、国泰海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。GuotaiHaitongSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.and/oritssubsidiaries(collectively,the"GuotaiHaitong")havearoleininvestmentbankingprojectsof300999.CHand000895.CHwithinthepast12months.Theinvestmentbankingprojectsinclude1.IPOprojectsinwhichGuotaiHaitongactedaspre-listingtutor,sponsor,orlead-underwriter;2.equityordebtrefinancingprojectsof300999.CHand000895.CHforwhichGuotaiHaitongact