瑞银-美国半导体：探究智能体AI对CPU市场的影响-US Semiconductors Exploring the Impact of Agentic AI on the CPU Market-20260505

a§ AaryanWadhwaa§2 婚§3 ●●Competition:74743120252027E2030ETraditionalserversAIHeadNodeAIStandalone173Upside(%)+7%AMD+11%+24%婚§4 ●●It●●●●●throughput.婚§5 ●●●●●●●婚§6 important●a§7 TRADitioNALCPUMARkEtGRowiNGAt~13%CAGR45,00040,0000'05-'20CAGR:8.0%200520062007200820052006200720082009202020222023202420250Trendline('05-'20)50,000,00045,000,00040,000,00035,000,00030,000,00025,000,00020,000,00015,000,00010,000,0005,000,000200520062005200620092012201520162019202220252026E2029E5,0004,5004,0001,5001,0000CAGRForecast('05-'20C'05-'20CAGR:4.3%a§8 Bottom-up:AICPUMARkEtTAM~$120Bby2030E2024202520262027Accelerators4,8465,7368,7559,522AMD3844061,7105,03010,4307447561,7112,300TotalAccelerators7,2548,60716,06923,3043,6635,1331,154688763803AMD2633733,148AWS2857481,6182,7486,15910,09522%32%38%43%93037婚§985%x86婚§10a§ rf~35%57%35%C2027-C2030Growth,%C2027-C2030CAGR,%31%婚§1230MM8MM15MM30MM60MM90MM120MM35MM9MM18MM35MM70MM105MM140MM40MM10MM20MM40MM80MM120MM160MM45MM11MM23MM45MM90MM135MM180MM50MM13MM25MM50MM100MM150MM200MM$2,000$20MM$40MM$80MM$160MM$240MM$320MM$2,500$25MM$50MM$100MM$200MM$300MM$400MM$3,000$30MM$60MM$120MM$240MM$360MM$480MM$3,500$35MM$70MM$140MM$280MM$420MM$560MM$4,000$40MM$80MM$160MM$320MM$480MM$640MM婚§13 Market婚§14 a§Totalx86+ARMServerCPUUnitsTotalx86+ARMServerCPUUnits(MM)0'19'20'21'22'23'24'25IntelAMDARM12108642ServerCPUServerCPURevenueShare-x86AMDIntel'08'10'12'14'16'18'20'22'2490%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%100%1Q213Q211Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q231Q243Q241Q253Q25GraniteRapidsSierraForestEmeraldRapidsSapphireRapidsIceLakeCascadeLakeOthers16%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%41%7%19%13%Totalx86+ARMServerCPUUnitTotalx86+ARMServerCPUUnitShare0%'19'20'21'22'23'24'2590%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%ARMAMDIntel100%4%75%75%50%23%22%12%1Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q231Q243Q241Q253Q25SienaTurinBergamoGenoaMilanOthers14%58%20%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%7%54%20%40%婚§165%5%8%10%20%28%30%60%68%67%61%63%62%Intel14Intel10Intel7Intel3Unknown/Other100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%12%18%28%72%70%63%45%46%54%39%22%18%7%76%75%41%38%12%5%42%50%37%55%45%45%40%33%24%3%13%28%19%10%8%7%6%5%3%5%34%2%25%23%9%8%45%31%33%58%17%13%3%44%44%26%22%20%17%11%8%8%8%7%7nm5nm3/4nmUnknown/Other14%11%8%8%7%6%5%4%4%3%4%2%2%6%13%21%25%34%38%52%70%74%78%86%89%92%92%93%94%92%89%83%75%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%80%82%77%66%57%53%12%婚§17 $60B$60B$26B2024202520262027202820292030TraditionalAI-Driven$19B2022$19B2023婚§18CY2024CY2025CY2026CY2027CY2028$3,694$1.45$4,671$1.72$5,591$5,587$CY2024CY2025CY2026CY2027CY2028$3,694$1.45$4,671$1.72$5,591$5,587$5,5900.0%$1.92$1.92$1.94-1.0%$7,417$7,216$7,1583.6%$3.04$2.94$2.7411.2%$10,167$10,005$9,20010.5%$4.32$4.32$3.2333.9%Revenues($MM)UBSeUBS(Old)ConsensusDeltaEPS(NonGAAP)UBSeUBS(Old)ConsensusDelta$4,007$1.64$1,135$1,242$$$1,470$0.35$0.39$0.43$$1,135$1,242$$$1,470$0.35$0.39$0.43$0.581,4701,473-0.2%$$0.58$0.58-$4,900$4,900$4,903-0.1%$1.75$1.75$1.75-2.0%$0.37$0.37$0.37-$$$$$$1,3471,3441,3460.1%0.430.420.43--1.5%$0.54$0.54$0.56-3.6%0.6%$0.79$0.77$0.763.9%$5,941$5,912$5,9270.2%$2.13$2.10$2.120.5%4.6%$0.68$0.37$0.5719.9%3.3%$0.76$0.42$0.6417.6%$2,089$2,0245.8%$0.82$0.54$0.767.1%$2,418$2,349$2,2905.6%$0.97$0.77$0.952.3%$8,014$7,770$7,6384.9%$3.23$2.10$2.9310.3%$10,648$10,599$10,0755.7%$4.73$3.15$3.5732.5%婚§19EstimatesArmEstimatesArmHoldingsPlc.(ARM)-KeyMetricsFQ4:25AFQ1AFQ2AFQ3AFQ4:26EFQ1EFQ2EFQ3EFQ4:27EFQ1EFQ2EFQ3EFISCALYEARSUMMARY(in$MMexceptEPSandunits)RevenueC2022AC2023AC2024ACQ1ACQ2ACQ3ACQ4AC2025ACQ1ECQ2ECQ3ECQ4EC2026ECQ1ECQ2ECQ3ECQ4EC2027EC2028EF2023AF2024AF2025AF2026EF2027E$2,703$2,938$3,694$1,241$1,053$1,135$1,242$4,671$1,470$1,270$1,347$1,503$5,591$1,821$1,693$1,814$2,089$7,417$10,167$2,679$3,233$4,007$4,900$5,941Y/YGrowth8.7%25.7%33.7%12.1%34.5%26.3%26.4%18.5%20.6%18.7%21.0%19.7%23.8%33.3%34.6%39.0%32.7%37.1%-0.9%20.7%23.9%22.3%21.2%GrossProfit(Non-GAAP)$2,592$2,837$3,607$1,221$1,031$1,115$1,221$4,588$1,449$1,248$1,325$1,481$5,504$1,799$1,670$1,791$1,920$7,179$9,528$2,580$3,131$3,926$4,816$5,853GrossMargin95.9%96.6%97.6%98.4%97.9%98.2%98.3%98.2%98.6%98.3%98.4%98.5%98.4%98.8%98.6%98.7%91.9%96.8%93.7%96.3%96.8%98.0%98.3%98.5%Opex(Non-GAAP)$1,839$1,821$1,994$566$619$648$716$2,549$745$814$822$832$3,212$842$849$876$931$3,499$4,260$1,797$1,723$2,049$2,728$3,310Y/YGrowth9.5%10.8%32.5%31.2%37.2%27.8%31.6%31.5%26.8%16.2%26.0%13.1%4.4%6.6%11.8%8.9%21.8%-2.9%-4.1%18.9%33.1%21.3%OperatingIncome(Non-GAAP)$753$1,016$1,613$655$412$467$505$2,039$705$435$503$649$2,291$956$821$915$989$3,681$5,269$783$1,408$1,877$2,089$2,543OperatingMargin27.9%34.6%43.7%52.8%39.1%41.1%40.7%43.7%47.9%34.2%37.4%43.2%41.0%52.5%48.5%50.4%47.4%49.6%51.8%29.2%43.6%46.8%42.6%42.8%Non-GAAPEPS$0.62$0.94$1.45$0.55$0.35$0.39$0.43$1.72$0.58$0.37$0.43$0.54$1.92$0.79$0.68$0.76$0.82$3.04$4.32$0.64$1.28$1.64$1.75$2.13FreeCashFlowCFFO$739$256$906$806$258$332$567$365$1,522$436$735$464$505$2,140$594$992$806$714$3,106$4,591$1,090$397$1,700$2,298CapexandintangiblesFCF($104)($182)($233)($95)($182)($156)($196)($629)($212)($158)($167)($186)($723)($226)($193)($207)($238)($864)($1,082)($133)$606($183)($298)($746)($737)$152$724$573$163$150$411$169$893$224$577$297$319$1,417$369$799$599$476$2,242$3,509$907$99$954$1,561%ofrevenue(6%)-24.6%-15.5%-13.1%-14.2%-36.2%-13.6%-19.1%-15.3%-45.4%-22.0%-21.2%-25.3%-20.2%-47.2%-33.0%-22.8%-30.2%-34.5%22.6%28.1%2.5%19.5%26.3%Y/YGrowth376.3%-20.9%-74.4%NMNM-51.6%55.8%37.6%284.6%-27.8%88.7%58.7%64.3%38.4%101.9%49.2%58.2%56.5%75.1%49.7%-89.1%864.0%63.6%RevenueReportingRoyaltyrevenue$1,675$1,725$1,662$2,075$607$585$620$737$2,549$688$719$776$846$3,028$884$919$970$1,067$3,840$4,696$1,802$2,168$2,630$3,224%ofrevenue64%56.6%56.2%48.9%55.6%54.6%59.3%54.6%46.8%56.6%57.6%56.3%54.2%48.6%54.3%53.5%51.1%51.8%46.2%62.5%55.7%54.1%53.7%54.3%Y/Ygrowth-3.7%24.8%18.1%25.3%20.6%27.1%22.8%13.3%22.8%25.2%14.8%18.8%28.6%27.9%25.0%26.1%26.8%22.3%7.2%7.6%20.3%21.3%22.6%Q/Qgrowth4.7%-3.6%6.0%18.9%-6.7%4.5%8.0%9.0%4.5%4.0%5.5%10.0%ofwhichARMv790.0%25.0%25.0%43.0%36.0%28.6%25.0%ofwhichARMv8135.0%44.0%44.0%49.0%46.5%44.7%15.0%ofwhichARMv925.0%95.0%31.0%31.0%8.0%17.5%26.7%60.0%Licenseandotherrevenue$978$1,276$1,619$634$468$515$505$2,122$783$552$571$657$2,563$887$674$694$722$2,977$3,225$1,004$1,431$1,839$2,271$2,667%ofTotalrevenue36%43.4%43.8%51.1%44.4%45.4%40.7%45.4%53.2%43.4%42.4%43.7%45.8%48.7%39.8%38.3%34.6%40.1%31.7%37.5%44.3%45.9%46.3%44.9%Y/Ygrowth30.5%26.9%53.1%-0.8%56.1%25.3%31.1%23.5%17.9%10.9%30.1%20.8%13.3%22.1%21.5%9.9%16.2%8.3%-12.0%42.5%28.5%23.5%17.4%Q/Qgrowth57.3%-26.2%10.0%-1.9%55.0%-29.5%3.5%15.0%35.0%-24.0%3.0%4.0%AnnualizedContractValue(ACV)$4,171$4,346$4,898$1,365$1,528$1,600$1,620$6,113$1,030$1,182$1,365%Y/Y4.2%12.7%15.5%28.1%27.7%27.6%24.8%-14.8%15.5%%Q/Q7.5%11.9%4.7%1.3%RemainingPerformanceObligation(RPO)$6,993$8,177$9,362$2,226$2,232$2,246$2,148$8,852$1,712$2,484$2,226%Y/Y16.9%14.5%-10.4%3.0%-5.8%-7.6%-5.4%-2.2%45.1%-10.4%%Q/Q-4.3%0.3%0.6%-4.4%impliedorders$408$1,528$1,162$418$261$236$128$1,043$259$188$195$224$865$302$236$243$253$1,035$1,155$530$1,823$1,163$884$908book-to-bill2.4x0.8x1.4x0.8x1.0x1.1x0.6x2.0x1.0x1.0x1.0x1.0x3.0x1.0x1.0x1.0x1.0x2.9x2.8x0.9x1.7x0.8x0.9x1.0xa§ ValuationNewOldNon-GAAPEPSC2027$3.04$2.94C2028Average$4.32$3.68LTEPSGrowth36.5%36.1%TargetPEG67x59x$245$EPSPrice/NTM110xEPSPrice/NTM110x100x90x80x70x60x50x40x30x20x10x0xARMARMMediatekVGOSoftwarereASOXSOXQCOM500QRVO5000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%LTEPSGrowthP/EEV/SalesEV/EBITDATickerCompanyName2024202520262027GrowthPEG202420252026202720242025202620272024202520262027MktCapEVSNPSSynopsys57x56x29x25x17%1.58x61x64x45x33x12.5x12.3xCDNSCadence78x77x36x32x13%2.83x73x54x44x36x17.7x16.0x13.1x11.4x52x45x27x24x$78B$77BAVGOBroadcomQCOMQualcommQCOMQualcommAMDAMD2454-TWMediaTekSimpleAverageWeightedAverageMedianARMARM49x49x38x22x17x137x78x26x34x125x81x30xNM105x92x46x21x22x26x26x24x68x57x33x22x72x51x26x38x26xNM80x68x53x 27%0.79x 33%0.75x 3%4.39x 38%0.78x 42%0.81x 20%1.22x 37%0.66x25%1.54x29%0.86x33%0.79x28%2.36x 58x55x24x17x26.9x21.1x11.8x8.6x 90x117x27x17x16.8x28.9x13.7x8.9x34x53x20x 26x21x11x12x5.0x4.3x3.2x3.1x16x14x9x9x$137B$184x51x46x26x7.8x10.0x6.9x4.7x39x53x30x17x$335B$328B NM-38xNMNM2.3x3.5x4.2x3.8x18x14x14x10x$220B$242B 39x36x24x16x3.9x3.4x3.8x2.7x17x16x19x13x$81B$73B 85x60x29x20x17.6x8.7x7.5x5.3xNM27x19x13x$81B$83B65x64x71xNM6.3x8.1x4.7x20.2x47x65x128x33x38x65x64x71xNM6.3x8.1x4.7x20.2x47x65x128x33x38x26xNM14x42x31x25x26x82x12.0x21.0x8.7x30.4x20x22x8.1x11.4x6.9x24.8x34x38x27x63x12.3x$755B21.8x7.8x$143B$140B27.7x$143B$140B a§婚§22a§ 333婚§24 12-MonthRatingDefinition254%24%40%21%6%21%婚§25 12-monthrating16fPricePriceTarget(US$)StockPrice(US$)240600BuyNoRating-婚§26 PricePriceTarget(US$)StockPrice(US$)806040200NeutralNoRating-婚§27 PricePriceTarget(US$)StockPrice(US$)5004003002000BuyNoRating-婚§28 relevanttoCreditSuisseWea婚§29 a§ a§ a§