伯恩斯坦-2026北京车展观察-Chinese Autos 2026 Beijing Auto Show takeaways - China as Battlefield or Launchpad

BLAST26April2026

ChineseAutos:2026BeijingAutoShowtakeaways—ChinaasBattlefieldorLaunchpad?

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WeattendedtheopeningdayoftheBeijingAutoShowyesterday(April24th).Thisblastsummarizesourkeytakeaways:competitionisintensifyingsharplyinthelarge6-seaterSUVsegment;domesticOEMsarepushingintoultra-highperformancevehiclesandshowcasingmoreconceptcars,whilelegacyOEMscontinuetoleanonheritage-drivennarratives.Asimilardivergenceisevidentin

strategicmessaging:internationalOEMsremainlargelyfocusedona“WithChina,ForChina”approach,prioritizingdeeplocalization,whereasChineseOEMsareadvancingan“InChina,ForGlobal”strategyasexportsaccelerateandoverseasambitionsscale.Theshowalsodrewstronginterestinhumanoidrobotics,particularlyfrominternationalvisitors,andLeiJun’shigh-profilereturnshouldnotbeunderstated.

COMPETITIVEPRESSURESESCALATINGINTHELARGE3-ROW,6-SEATEREVSUVSEGMENT

OneofthemorenotableproductlaunchtrendsinChina’sautomarketthisyearhasbeenthegrowingfocusonthelarge,3-row,6-seaterSUVsegment.Asteadypipelineofnewmodelintroductionssuggestsaprogressivelymorecompetitivelandscapeinwhathashistoricallybeenarelativelylucrativecategory.RecentandannouncedlaunchesincludeXPeng’sGX,NIO’sES9andrefreshedES8,Zeekr’s9Xand8X,Volkswagen’sID.Era9X,andLeapmotor’sD19,withXiaomialsoscheduledtounveilitsYU9EREVinQ32026.Inparallel,an

increasingnumberofOEMs—includingXPeng,Volkswagen,andLeapmotor—areofferingEREVvariantsalongsideBEVoptions.ThesedevelopmentsaresettoincreasecompetitivepressureonincumbentleaderssuchasLiAuto’sL9andL8andAITO’sM9andM8.

Thecompetitiveintensityinthesegmentisnowbeingdrivenbyrapidfeatureescalation,flexiblepowertrains,andsharper

pricing.XPeng’sGXentersthemarketwithapre-salepricefromRMB399.8k,differentiatingwithitsL4-ready,VLA2.0intelligentdrivingsolutionthathasseenastrongupgradevs.thepreviousgeneration,steer-by-wirechassis,anddualBEV/EREVpowertrainoptions;NIO’sES9reinforcesthebrand’spremiumimageandhassupportedincrementalshowroomtrafficfortheES8;andLeapmotor’sD19standsoutwithadisruptivevaluepropositionstartingataroundRMB219.8k.(Exhibit1-Exhibit6)

EXHIBIT1:LiAutoL9Livis(RMB559.8k)featureafullyactive800Vsuspensionandby-wirechassis,and2in-house

Mach100chips(2,560TOPS)

Source:Bernsteinphoto

EXHIBIT2:NIOES9(RMB528k+)

reinforcesthebrand’spremium

imageandhassupportedincrementalshowroomtrafficfortheES8

Source:Bernsteinphoto

EXHIBIT3:XPengGX(pre-salefromRMB399.8k)differentiatewithitsVLA2.0intelligentdrivinganddualBEV/EREVpowertrainoptions,etc.

Source:Bernsteinphoto

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.

FirstPublished:26Apr202618:36UTCCompletionDate:26Apr202618:36UTC

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EXHIBIT4:AITO’snewM8(RMB359.8k)isthemoreaccessible,premiumfamilySUV(vs.M9)thatstillcarriesHuaweiintelligentdrivingandcockpitfeatures

Source:Bernsteinphoto

EXHIBIT5:BYDDaTang(pre-salefromRMB250k)features2ndgenblade

batteryandultra-fastcharging,has

alreadyreceivedover30korderswithinthefirst24hoursoflaunch

Source:Companyphoto

EXHIBIT6:LeapmotorD19(RMB219.8k+)standsoutasthefull-size“budgetflagship”SUVwiththeloweststartingpriceinthesix-seatcrowd

Source:Bernsteinphoto

Thesesupplysidepressuresareevenmorenotablewhenviewedagainsttheunderlyingdemandbackdrop.China’soverallnew

SUVmarketreachedaround11.5mnunitsin2024–25,butthemid-largeandlargeSUVsegmentaccountedforonlyabout1.9mnunits

in2025,eventhoughithasdeliveredstronggrowth(+27%yoy)andarobust25%CAGRover2021–25versus5%forthebroaderSUV

market.Also,electrificationpenetrationinthissegmentisalreadyhigh,withBEVpenetrationataround23%andPHEV/EREVpenetrationreachingroughly55%in2025.Thissuggeststhatmuchoftheearlyadoptionandsubstitutiondemandhasalreadybeencaptured,limitingincrementalgrowthfrompurepowertrainswitching.Meanwhile,theRMB300k+SUVmarket—thecoreaddressablepricebandformost

large6-seatermodels—hasremainedessentiallyflatataround1.9–2.0mnunitsoverthepasttwoyears.WhileamoreoptimisticscenarioassumesthatroughlyhalfofRMB250k–300kbuyerscouldtradeup,liftingtheimpliedmarketsizeto2.5mnunits,thisupsideisconditionalandlikelytobecompetedawaybythegrowingnumberofentrants.(Exhibit7-Exhibit10)

EXHIBIT7:InChina,SUVsaleshavelargelyoutperformedthebroaderautomarketoverthepastdecade;newSUVsalesreachedaround11.5mnunitsin2024–25,accountingforapproximately49%oftotalvehiclesales

2016-2025:Chinaautomarketbysegment

Salesvolume(inmnunits)

Growthyoy(%)

-5%

--10%

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025

CARSUVMPVMinivanSportsCarTotalyoy(%)SUVyoy(%)

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

25

20

15

10

5

Source:C.A.D.andBernsteinanalysis

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EXHIBIT8:Mid-largeandlargeSUVsreached1.9mnunitsin2025(+27%YoY)andhavesignificantlyoutpacedtheoverallSUVmarketinrecentyears,growingata25%CAGRover

2021–25versus5%forthesegmentoverall

2021-2025:ChinaSUVmarketbysize

Salesvolume(inmnunits)

Growthyoy(%)

12

10

8

6

4

2

-

20212022202320242025

A00-A0A

BC

DTotalSUVyoy(%)

C-DSUVyoy(%)

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

Source:C.A.D.andBernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT9:Themid-largeandlargeSUVsegmenthasseen

highEVpenetration,withBEVpenetrationreaching23%andPHEV&EREVreaching55%in2025

2025:ChinaSUVmarketby

powertrain

Salesvolume(inmnunits)

EVsalespenetration(%)

6

5

4

3

2

1

-

A00-A0ABC-D

BEVPHEV

EREVICE

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

BEVpenetration(%)EVpenetration(%)

EVpenetrationincludesBEV,PHEV,andEREV.Source:C.A.D.andBernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT10:TheRMB300k+SUVmarkethasremainedstableatapproximately1.9–2.0mnunitsoverthepasttwoyears

2024-2025:ChinaSUVmarketbypricepoint

4.0

Salesvolume(inmnunits)

3.8

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

1.4

1.5

1.0

0.70.8

1.0

0.4

0.30.20.2

0.5

-

<RMB

100k

>RMB

500k

RMB100-RMB150-RMB200-RMB250-RMB300-RMB350-RMB400-RMB450-150k200k250k300k350k400k450k500k

20242025

Source:GasgooandBernsteinanalysis

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AVISIBLEGAPSTILL:AI-DEFINEDFUTURESVS.HERITAGE-LEDNARRATIVES

WhileChineseOEMssuchasBYDandXiaomiareaggressivelyshowcasingAI-defined,ultra-highperformancevehicles—alongside

agrowingnumberofforward-lookingconceptcars—legacyOEMscontinuetoleanheavilyonheritage-drivennarratives.Mercedes

(coveredbyStephenReitman),forexample,prominentlydisplayeditsPatent-Motorwagen,thethree-wheeled,gasoline-poweredcarriageoriginallybuiltbyKarlBenzin1885–86,whileVolvo(coveredbyHarryMartin)showcaseditsPV444fromthemid-1940s,accompaniedbymessaginghighlightingitslong-standingsafetylegacy(“OneVolvo,halfthehistoryofsafety”).BothMercedesandVolvovehicleswerefeaturedfrontandcenterontheirrespectivestagestoo.Thiscontrastunderscoresanongoingdisconnectincurrentproductpositioningandinnovationmessaging,suggestingthatlegacyOEMsstillhavemeaningfulgroundtocoverinaligningtheirportfolioswiththepaceoftechnologicalchangefortheChinamarket.(Exhibit11)

EXHIBIT11:WhileChineseOEMsareaggressivelyshowcasingAI-defined,ultra-highperformancevehicles,legacyOEMs

continuetoleanheavilyonheritage-drivennarratives;Mercedes,forexample,prominentlydisplayeditsPatent-

Motorwagen,from1885–86,whileVolvoshowcaseditsPV444fromthemid-1940s,accompaniedbymessaginghighlightingitslong-standingsafetylegacy,bothfeaturedfrontandcenterontheirrespectivestagestoo

Source:Bernsteinphotos

ANOTHERMESSAGINGGAP:“WITHCHINA,FORCHINA”VS.“INCHINA,FORGLOBAL”

AnothergapishowinternationalandChineseOEMsframetheirChinastrategies.GlobalOEMssuchasToyotaandVolkswagencontinuetoemphasizean“InChina,ForChina”approach,leaningheavilyonlocalpartnershipstoremaincompetitive.Toyota’s(coveredby

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MasahiroAkita)bZ7,forexample,integratesHuawei’sHarmonyOSsmartcockpit,DriveONEelectricdrivesystems,andMomenta’sADAS,

whileVolkswagen’sID.UNYXandID.ERAseriesleverageChinesepartnersincludingXPeng,Momenta,andHorizonRobotics.OnitsChina

InvestorUpdateday,Volkswagendisclosedthataround65%ofthesupplychainforthesenewmodelsislocallysourced,underscoringthedepthoflocalization,evenasthecompanymaintainsseparatetechnologypathwaysforWesternmarketsviapartnerssuchasRivian.(Exhibit12)

Bycontrast,ChineseOEMsareincreasinglypositioningthemselvesaroundan“InChina,ForGlobal”narrative.Ratherthan

viewingChina-specificdevelopmentasmarket-bound,leadingplayerssuchasBYD,Chery,andXPengareusingdomesticscale,cost

competitiveness,andrapidinnovationcyclestoexpandaggressivelyoverseas.Someofthenewmodelsrecentlylaunchedaredesignedwithglobalaudienceinmind.IndustryfeedbackfromEuropehasbeenincreasinglyconstructiveontheirprogress,reinforcingtheviewthatChinaisbecomingnotjustadestinationmarket,butagloballaunchpad.(Exhibit13)

EXHIBIT12:AnothergapishowinternationalandChinese

OEMsframetheirstrategies:globalOEMssuchasToyota

continuetoemphasizea“WithChina,ForChina”approach,leaningheavilyonlocalpartnershipstostaycompetitive

Source:Bernsteinphoto

EXHIBIT13:Bycontrast,ChineseOEMsareincreasingly

positioningthemselvesaroundan“InChina,ForGlobal”

narrative:Chineseplayersareusingdomesticscaleandcostcompetitivenesstoexpandoverseas,withsomelaunchingmodelsdesignedwithglobalaudienceinmind

Source:Bernsteinphoto

HUMANOIDROBOTICSSTEALINGTHESPOTLIGHT

Chineseautomakersareincreasinglyshowcasinghumanoidrobotsaspartofabroadernarrativethatextendsbeyondvehiclesto

encompassembodied-AIhardwareplatforms,spanningrobotsandevenflyingvehicles.XPeng’sIRONhumanoidandits“physicalAI

ecosystem”wereamongthemorevisibleexamplesontheautoshowfloor.Chinaalreadyrepresentsthemajorityofglobalhumanoid

shipments,andthesetechnologiesarenowappearingmorefrequentlyatlargenationalexhibitions.Atthisyear’sautoshow,humanoidroboticsattractednoticeableattention,particularlyfrominternationalvisitors.ExamplesondisplayincludedrobotsfromXPeng(topleft),Chery(topright),Honor(bottomleft),andAgiBot—acompanybackedbyBYD(bottomright).(Exhibit14)

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EXHIBIT14:Theshowalsodrewstronginterestinhumanoidrobotics,particularlyfrominternationalvisitors;belowshowshumanoidsfromXPeng(topleft),Chery(topright),Honor(bottomleft),andAgiBot—acompanybackedbyBYD(bottomright)

Source:Bernsteinphoto

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LEIJUN’SHIGH-PROFILERETURN

XiaomifounderLeiJunmadeahigh-profilereturntothe2026BeijingAutoShowafterbeingabsentin2025followingcontroversy

surroundingafatalSU7accident.Thisyear,heunveiledtheXiaomiVisionGranTurismoconceptcarinChina—followingitsinitialdebutin

Madrid—andconfirmedthattheYU7GTwilllaunchinlateMay.LeiJunalsosharedanupdateonXiaomi’sEVmomentum,notingthatthe

SU7hasdelivered26,000unitstodateandsecured60,000locked-inorders.Theresponseattheshowwastelling:largecrowdsgatheredforhiskeynote,followedhimashetouredtheexhibitionhalls,anddroveXiaomi-relatedtopicstothetopofsocial-mediatrending.The

strongon-siteturnoutandonlineengagementunderscorethatbothXiaomiEVandLeiJunhimselfremainfirmlyatthecenterofindustryandconsumerattention,highlightinghisconfidence,commitment,andinfluence.(Exhibit15)

Onapersonalnote,ahighlightoftheautoshowformewasmanagingtosnapaselfiewithLeiJun!(Exhibit16)

EXHIBIT15:LeiJununveiledtheXiaomiVisionGranTurismoconceptcarinChina—followingitsinitialdebutinMadrid

Source:Bernsteinphoto

EXHIBIT16:Personalhighlightoftheautoshow-snappingaselfiewithLeiJun!

Source:Xiaomi'sYouTubechannel

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BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE

24Apr2026

TTM

ReportedEPSReportedP/E(x)

Ticker

Rating

Cur

Closing Price

Price

Target

Rel.

Perf.

Cur

2025A2026E

2027E

2025A2026E2027E

1211.HK(BYD)

O

HKD

101.20

136.00

(66.0)%

CNY

3.584.886.9324.718.1

12.7

002594.CH(BYD)

O

CNY

99.46

124.00

(62.0)%

CNY

3.584.886.9327.820.4

14.3

175.HK(Geely)

O

HKD

23.02

22.00

1.6%

CNY

1.671.672.3312.012.0

8.6

2333.HK(GreatWall-H)

M

HKD

12.99

16.50

(29.3)%

CNY

1.511.681.857.56.7

6.1

2238.HK(GAC)

M

HKD

3.05

3.00

(37.3)%

CNY

(0.42)0.050.14(6.4)55.9

18.9

LI(LiAuto)

M

USD

18.13

19.00

(56.1)%

CNY

1.13(2.33)6.40109.5(53.1)

19.4

2015.HK(LiAuto)

M

HKD

69.90

74.00

(65.6)%

CNY

0.57(1.17)3.20107.8(52.3)

19.1

9866.HK(NIO)

M

HKD

49.18

43.00

12.7%

CNY

(6.85)(2.79)(1.90)(6.3)(15.4)

(22.6)

NIO(NIO)

M

USD

6.21

5.50

16.3%

CNY

(6.85)(2.79)(1.90)(6.2)(15.2)

(22.3)

600104.CH(SAIC)

M

CNY

13.71

18.00

(55.2)%

CNY

0.951.241.3614.411.1

10.1

1810.HK(Xiaomi)

O

HKD

31.20

46.00

(66.8)%

CNY

1.621.081.8416.825.1

14.8

9868.HK(XPeng)

M

HKD

64.20

86.00

(59.9)%

CNY

(0.60)(1.50)0.30(93.6)(37.4)

188.1

XPEV(XPeng)

M

USD

16.66

22.00

(52.1)%

CNY

(1.20)(2.99)0.60(95.1)(38.0)

191.3

ASIAX

1,827.77

SPX

7,108.40

O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspended2238.HK,LI,NIO,600104.CH,XPEVvaluationisAdjustedP/E(x);

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.

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DISCLOSUREAPPENDIX

I.REQUIREDDISCLOSURES

Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe“Firm”inthesedisclosuresrelatetothefollowingentities:BernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLC(April1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein&Co.,LLC(preApril1,2024),BernsteinAutonomousLLP,BSGFranceS.A.(April1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司,SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordC.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited(SEBIregistrationno.INH000006378),SanfordC.Bernstein(Singapore)PrivateLimited,SanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)andanalystsemployedbySociétéGénéraleAfricaTechnologies&ServicestoproduceBernsteinresearchunderaGlobalServicesAgreementinplacebetweenBernsteinandSociétéGénérale.

BernsteinispartofajointventurebetweenSociétéGénérale(SG)andAllianceBernstein,L.P.(AB).Unlessspecificallynotedotherwise,forpurposesofthesedisclosures,referencestoBernstein’s“affiliates”relatetobothSGandABandtheirrespectiveaffiliates.

VALUATIONMETHODOLOGY

Thisresearchpublicationcoverssixormorecompanies.Forvaluationmethodologyandothercompanydisclosures:Pleasevisit:

/sellside/Disclosures.action

.

Or,youcanalsowritetotheDirectorofCompliance,BernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLC,245ParkAvenue,NewYork,NY10167.

RISKS

Thisresearchpublicationcoverssixormorecompanies.Forrisksandothercompanydisclosures:Pleasevisit:

/sellside/Disclosures.action

.

Or,youcanalsowritetotheDirectorofCompliance,BernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLC,245ParkAvenue,NewYork,NY10167.

RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION

EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS

Bernsteinbrand

TheBernsteinbrandratesstocksbasedonforecastsofrelativeperformanceforthenext12monthsversustheS&P500forstockslistedontheU.S.andCanadianexchanges,versustheBloombergEuropeDevelopedMarketsLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexEUR(EDME)forstockslistedontheEuropeanexchangesandemergingmarketsexchangesoutsideoftheAsiaPacificregion,versustheBloombergJapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexUSD(JPL)forstockslistedontheJapaneseexchanges,andversustheBloombergAsiaex-JapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndex(ASIAX)forstockslistedontheAsian(ex-Japan)exchanges-unlessotherwisespecified.

TheBernsteinbrandhasthreecategoriesofratings:

•Outperform:Stockwilloutpacethemarketindexbymorethan15pp

•Market-Perform:Stockwillperforminlinewiththemarketindextowithin+/-15pp

•Underperform:Stockwilltrailtheperformanceofthemarketindexbymorethan15pp

CoverageSuspended:CoverageofacompanyundertheBernsteinresearchbrandhasbeensuspended.Ratingsandpricetargetsaresuspendedtemporarily,arenolongercurrent,andshouldthereforenotbereliedupon.

NotRated:Aratingassignedwhenthestockcannotbeaccuratelyvalued,ortheperformanceofthecompanyaccuratelypredicted,atthepresenttime.Thecoveringanalystmaycontinuetopublishresearchreportsonthecompanytoupdateinvestorsoneventsanddevelopments.

NotCovered(NC)denotescompaniesthatarenotundercoverage.

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Bernsteinbrandstockratingsarebasedona12-monthtimehorizon.

Autonomousbrand–commonstocks

TheAutonomousbrandratescommonstocksasindicatedbelow.AsourbenchmarksweusetheBloombergEurope500BanksAndFinancialServicesIndex(BEBANKS)andBloombergEuropeDevMktFinancialsLargeandMidCapPriceRetIndexEUR(EDMFI)indexfordevelopedEuropeanbanksandPayments,theBloombergEurope500InsuranceIndex(BEINSUR)forEuropeaninsurers,theS&P500andS&PFinancialsforUSbanksandPaymentscoverage,S5LIFEforUSInsurance,theS&PInsuranceSelectIndustry(SPSIINS)forUSNon-LifeInsurerscoverage,andtheBloombergEmergingMarketsFinancialsLarge,MidandSmallCapPriceReturnIndex(EMLSF)foremergingmarketbanksandinsurersandPayments.Ratingsarestatedrelativetothesector(notthemarket).

TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofcommonstockratings:

•Outperform(OP):Stockwilloutpacetherelevantindexbymorethan10pp

•Neutral(N):Stockwillperforminlinewiththemarketindextowithin+/-10pp

•Underperform(UP):Stockwilltrailtheperformanceoftherelevantindexbymorethan10pp

CoverageSuspended:CoverageofacompanyundertheAutonomousresearchbrandhasbeensuspended.Ratingsandpricetargetsaresuspendedtemporarily,arenolongercurrent,andshouldthereforenotbereliedupon.

NotRated:Aratingassignedwhenthestockcannotbeaccuratelyvalued,ortheperformanceofthecompanyaccuratelypredicted,atthepresenttime.Thecoveringanalystmaycontinuetopublishresearchreportsonthecompanytoupdateinvestorsoneventsanddevelopments.

Thosedenotedas‘Feature’(e.g.,FeatureOutperformFOP,FeatureUnderOutperformFUP)areourcoreideas.NotCovered(NC)denotescompaniesthatarenotundercoverage.

Autonomousbrandcommonstockratingsarebasedona12-monthtimehorizon.

Autonomousbrand–preferredstocks

TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofpreferredstockratings:

•Outperform(OP):Thetotalreturnofthepreferredinstrumentisexpectedtooutperformpreferredsecuritiesofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

•Neutral(N):Thetotalreturnofthepreferredinstrumentisexpectedtoperforminlinewithpreferredsecuritiesofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

•Underperform(UP):Thetotalreturnofthepreferredinstrumentisexpectedtounderperformpreferredsecuritiesofotherissuersoperatinginsimilarsectorsorratingcategoriesoverthenextsixmonths.

Autonomouspreferredstockratingsarebasedona6-monthtimehorizon.

AUTONOMOUSCREDITRESEARCH

Wherethisreportcontainsinvestmentrecommendationsforcreditinstruments,asdefinedinarticle3(1)(35)oftheMarketAbuseRegulation,theinformationbelowispresentedtocomplywithitsdisclosurerequirements.

Thereportmayalsoincludereference(s)topublishedopinionsbyotherAutonomousorBernsteinanalystscoveringtheequitysecuritiesoftheissuer(s)referencedherein.Pleasenoteaninvestmentrecommendationforcreditinstrumentspublishedbytheauthor(s)ofthisreportmaydifferfromthepublishedviewoftheanalystcoveringequitysecuritiesfortheissuer(s)containedinthisreportandviceversa.

CREDITRATINGSDEFINITIONS

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TheAutonomousbrandhasthreecategoriesofcre