伯恩斯坦-全球奢侈品：随着进入2026年第四季度历峰集团可能存在营收上行空间-Global Luxury Goods Likely top-line upside for Richemont as we head into 4Q26E

12May2026

GlobalLuxuryGoods

GlobalLuxuryGoods:Likelytop-lineupsideforRichemontasweheadinto4Q26E

LucaSolca

+41582723126

luca.solca@

MariaMeita

+442071700540

maria.meita@

EricChen,CFA

+85221232628

eric.chen@

Yi-PengKhoo,CFA

+442076766822

yi-peng.khoo@

SpecialistSales

AlixTurner

+442077624044

alix.turner@

Weintroduceanewalternativedatasetthatthattracksluxurysalesinshoppingmallsin

MainlandChina.WefocusonRichemontinthecontextofFY26reportingon22ndMay2026.

Shoppingmallsalesfortrackedbrandscloselycorrelateswithreportedresults.OurshoppingmalldatasetcapturesmonthlyretailsalesstartingfromJan’21.Attheaggregatelevel,totalretailsalesforagroupofluxurycompaniesalignswellwiththecombined

reportedrevenueoftheirrespectiveregionalsegmentsthatincludesGreaterChina.Attheindividualcompanylevel,weobserveastrongcorrelationbetweenshoppingmallretail

salesgrowthandregionalsegmentCFxgrowth(Exhibit10toExhibit17).Specifically,weanalyseAPACex.JPforHermès,LVMH’sF&LG,Richemont,andKering(GucciandSaintLaurent);GreaterChinaforZegnaandSwatch;andAsiafortheMonclerbrand.

WezoominonRichemontwithadditionalalternativedatasets.Weobservean

improvedcorrelationwithAPACex.JapanCFxgrowthwhencombiningMainlandChinashoppingmallsaleswithHongKongretailW&Jsalesdata.Inaddition,Richemont’sCFxgrowthinJapanandEuropeappearstoalignwellwiththeYoYgrowthinjewellerysalesatTokyodepartmentstoresandW&JretailsalesinFrance,respectively.

Overall,Richemontcouldsurprisetotheupsidein4Q26ECFxgrowth.Ourcorrelationanalysisindicatespotentialupsidetothecurrentconsensusof+9%GroupCFxgrowth.

Byregion,Japanismostlikelytooutperform,followedbyEuropewithalowerprobability,whileAPACex.Japanislikelytobeinline.Vieweddifferently,currentconsensusassumesafasternarrowingofthegrowthgapbetweenRichemontJMandLVMHF&LGonasimilarcomparablebasesequentially(Exhibit5).Thismaybeprematurefor1Q26,giventhe

newnessunderJWAnderson’sDiorisonlygraduallyrollingouttothestores.

StrongjewellerysalesinJapanarelikelytodriveanupsidesurprise.Current

consensusforJapan(c.+14%)appearstofactorinaslightsequentialslowdown,reflectingsomewhattoughercomparablebases.However,wenotethatjewellerysalesinTokyo

departmentstoresacceleratedmateriallyin1Q26onbothaYoYand2Ybasis.Categorygrowthinjewelleryhasalsooutpacedapparelandaccessories,whichhistoricallyhas

shownadecentcorrelationwithreportedluxuryfashionandaccessoriesrevenuegrowth,potentiallyreflectingstrongLFLjewellerypriceincreases.

ThereisgreateruncertaintyinEurope,butconsensuslikelyembedssufficient

downside.OurcurrentdatacoverageincludesW&JretailsalesinFranceforJanand

Feb’26,butexcludesthecriticalmonthofMarch.ForourmodeltoalignwiththecurrentconsensusforEurope(c.+8%),however,aroughly15%declineinW&Jretailsalesfor

March,assumingtrendsfromthefirsttwomonthspersist,wouldberequired.While

RichemonthasnotdiscloseditsexposuretoMiddleEasternconsumers,a15%inferredimpact(equivalenttoc.30%oftouristdemand,giventotaltouristexposureisbelow50%inEurope)appearselevatedrelativetoitsestimated8-10%exposuretotheMiddleEastregion,whereover70%ofdemandislocal.

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.

FirstPublished:12May202605:00UTCCompletionDate:11May202614:37UTC

LucaSolca+41582723126

luca.solca@

12May2026

BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE

8May2026

TTM

AdjustedEPSAdjustedP/E(x)

Ticker

Rating

Cur

Closing Price

Price

Target

Rel.

Perf.

Cur

2025A2026E2027E

2025A2026E2027E

BC.IM(BrunelloCucinelli)

O

EUR

85.12

108.00

(31.7)%

EUR

1.992.262.6542.837.732.1

BRBY.LN(Burberry)

O

GBp

1,210.00

1,500.00

40.8%

GBP

(0.15)0.210.47(81.8)57.025.6

CFR.SW(Richemont)

O

CHF

158.40

200.00

(6.2)%

EUR

6.396.126.8727.028.225.1

ZGN

O

USD

13.16

14.00

42.7%

EUR

0.450.420.6024.826.618.6

RMS.FP(Hermes)

O

EUR

1,661.00

2,150.00

(46.4)%

EUR

43.1244.3352.4738.537.531.7

KER.FP(Kering)

M

EUR

245.90

220.00

21.8%

EUR

4.356.6610.0456.536.924.5

MC.FP(LVMH)

O

EUR

472.70

600.00

(20.7)%

EUR

22.7322.2226.7120.821.317.7

MONC.IM(Moncler)

M

EUR

54.50

57.50

(15.9)%

EUR

2.312.442.6423.622.320.7

1913.HK(PradaSpA)

O

HKD

35.62

50.00

(73.8)%

EUR

0.330.320.3611.612.210.8

SFER.IM(Ferragamo)

O

EUR

8.69

7.50

35.1%

EUR

(0.30)0.040.15(29.5)224.759.2

UHR.SW(Swatch)

O

CHF

210.60

180.00

32.9%

CHF

0.034.328.16N/M48.725.8

EDME

1,517.21

EMLSF

6,168.58

ASIAX

1,976.13

O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspendedSource:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.

INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS

Thetrajectoryofarecoveryingloballuxurydemandremainsuncertain.Wefindtwosourcesofvolatilityatplay:a)underlyingdemandgyrations,asconsumersnavigateafragilemacro-economicenvironmentandatenserandtensergeopolitical

environment;andb)short-terminvestorsplayingthesectorlongandshort,amplifyingupswingsanddownswingsbeyond

naturalnewsflow.Inthiscontextofheighteneduncertainty,wewouldtakeamoredefensiveposturewithacoreexposuretoplainvanilla:

1)Wewouldpreferhigh-qualitynames“atfairvalue”...Richemontisourtoppreferenceduetostrongjewellerymomentumandleadership,withBrunelloCucinellialsofavoredfortheirqualityandpotentialmeanreversion.ItisdifficulttobepositiveonHermèsintheshort-term,butoneweakquartercanbeforgivenbythemarket,iftheyreturntohighsingledigitgrowth

(Hermès:Valuationsalreadydiscounta'Ferrarireset').

2)...aswellastheself-helpstorieswithmorepromisingtrajectories.LVMHsitsbetweenhighqualityandself-help.Lingering

concernsaroundtheW&SturnaroundandtheArnaultfamily’s‘Darwinian’successionprocessarecounter-balancedbyDior’srevival,costefficiencies,andLouisVuitton’sstrength;TurnaroundatBurberryiswellontrack.One-yearanniversaryofthe

BurberryForwardstrategyhaspaidoff,intheformofimprovedbrandmomentumandstrongerfull-pricesell-through.Withasolidfoundationinplace,thenextlegoftheturnaroundwillseefocusshiftingtodrivingstoreproductivity,bycapitalizingontheextendedmomentuminothercategoriesfromthecoreouterwear&scarf;Ferragamoisattheearlierstageofandtradingatthelowerendofthetradingrange.Recentconversationwithmanagementsuggestsapossibleturnaroundinthemaking,asateamof“oldhands”aretacklingkeyissuesaroundthebrand,assortmentandretailstorenetwork.

Note:OurChinaalternativedatasetisbasedonestimatedsalesfromstoreslocatedacrossawiderangeofChineseshoppingmalls,spanningdifferentcities,tiers,andsizes.However,itexcludesHangLungmalls(e.g.,Plaza66inShanghai).

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP2

LucaSolca+41582723126

luca.solca@

12May2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP3

DETAILS

EXHIBIT1:Totalluxuryshoppingmallsalesfortrackedbrandsbroadlycorrelatewithcompanies’reportinginaggregate

ChinaLuxury-MeritcoTrackedChinaLuxurySalesvs.CompanyReportedSegment

Sales(2021-2025)

CompanyReportedRegionalSegmentTotal

(CNYmn)

MeritcoTrackedChinaSales(CNYmn)

340,000

320,000

300,000

280,000

260,000

240,000

220,000

200,000

20212022202320242025

36,000

34,000

32,000

30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

ReportedTotalMeritcototal

ThereportedtotalconsistsofAPACforSalvatoreFerragamo,Moncler;APACex.JPforHermes,LVMH’sF&LGdivision,Richemont,Kering;GreaterChinaforZegnaandSwatch

Source:Meritco,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT2:CurrentconsensusforRichemont’sAPACex.JPCFxgrowthfor1Q26isbroadlyinlinewithwhereourcorrelationwouldsuggest

CorrelationbetweenRichemont’sAPACex.JPCFxgrowthandaverageofMainlandChinamallsalesandHKW&Jretailsalesbyfinancialquarter

Richemont-AverageofMeritcoChinaMainlandYoYSalesGrowthandHKW&J

ReportedAPACex.JPYoYCFx%

YoYRetailSalesGrowthvs.APACex.JPReportedCFx%

Average[MeritcoChinaMailandSalesYoYGrowth%,HKJewellery,WatchesandOthersYoY

RetailSalesGrowth%]

4Q26PredictedValue4Q26CurrentConsensus

4Q23

y=0.6183x-0.0054R²=0.8454

50%60%70%

1Q24

2Q26

1Q264Q26PredictedValue

4Q26Current

Consensus

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%

-30%

3Q25

4Q25

3Q23

2Q233Q26

4Q24

2Q25

2Q24

3Q24

1Q25

ValuefortheX-axisisasimpleaveragebetweentheRichemontbrandsrevenuetrackedbyMeritcoandJewellery,WatchesandOthersretailsalesinHongKong.Predictedvalueiscalculatedbasedonthecorrespondingxvalue.

Source:Meritco,HKCensusandStatisticsDepartment,VisibleAlpha,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis

LucaSolca+41582723126

luca.solca@

12May2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP4

EXHIBIT3:However,consensusmighthaveunderestimatedthepotentialgrowthofJapanthisquarter.CorrelationbetweenRichemont’sJapanCFxgrowthandTokyodepartmentstorejewelleryandotherssalesbyfinancialquarter

Richemont-TokyoArt,Jewelry,PreciousMetalsYoYDepartmentStoreRetailSalesGrowthvs.JapanReportedCFx%

ReportedJapanYoYCFx%

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%

TokyoArt,Jewelry,PreciousMetalsYoYDepartmentStoreRetailSalesGrowth%

4Q253Q25

1Q24

2Q26

1Q26

1Q25

y=1.4506x+0.0813R²=0.8871

2Q23

4Q26PredictedValue

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

3Q26

4Q26CurrentConsensus

3Q23

2Q25

4Q24

4Q23

4Q26PredictedValue4Q26CurrentConsensus

3Q242Q24

Predictedvalueiscalculatedbasedonthecorrespondingxvalue.

Source:JapanDepartmentStoreAssociation,VisibleAlpha,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis

EXHIBIT4:Wewouldhavetoassume-15%retailsaleswerelostforthemonthofMar-26(datanotyetreleased)forourcorrelationtolandwherethecurrentconsensusis

CorrelationbetweenRichemont’sEuropeCFxgrowthandFranceW&Jretailsalesbyfinancialquarter

Richemont-FranceJewelleryandWatchesYoYRetailSalesGrowthvs.Europe

ReportedCFx%

ReportedEuropeYoYCFx%

4Q26Predicted2Q23

Value

4Q23

4Q25

FranceJewelleryandWatchesYoYRetailSalesGrowth%

4Q26PredictedValue4Q26Consensus

-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%

Notethatcalendar1Q26data

onlyincludeJan-26andFeb-26W&JretailsalesinFrance

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

3Q26

4Q26

Consensus

1Q252Q25

3Q24

y=1.8221x+0.0012R²=0.7899

3Q25

3Q23

1Q26

1Q242Q26

4Q24

2Q24

Mar-26datahasyetbeenreleasedbytheFrenchstatsoffice,whichcouldhavesignificantimpactonluxurysalesgiventheconflictintheMiddleEast.Predictedvalueiscalculatedbasedonthecorrespondingxvalue.

Source:INSEE,Bernsteinanalysis

LucaSolca+41582723126

luca.solca@

12May2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP5

EXHIBIT5:CurrentconsensusexpectsthegrowthgapbetweenRichemont’sJMandLVMH’sF&LGtonarrowsequentiallyatafasterpace

Richemont'sJMOSGvs.LVMH'sF&LG(Calendar1Q24to1Q26e)

15%

9%

3%

1%

1Q242Q243Q244Q24

Delta

1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q26

F&LGJM

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

17%

13%

20%19%

16%

1Q26JMOSGisconsensusestimate

Source:Companyreports,VisibleAlpha,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT6:JewellerysalesinTokyodepartmentstorehaveacceleratedin1Q26,bothinYoYandYo2Ybasis

TokyoDepartmentStoreJewelleryYoYand2yrstackGrowth

(Calendar2Q25to1Q26)

-11%

2Q253Q254Q251Q26

YoY2YStack

14%

12%

5%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

26%22%

21%

15%

Source:JapanDepartmentStoreAssociation,Bernsteinanalysis

LucaSolca+41582723126

luca.solca@

12May2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP6

EXHIBIT7:Growthgapofjewelleryvs.apparel&accessoriesinTokyodepartmentstoreshascontinuedtowidenin1Q26

TokyoDepartmentStoreJewelleryvs.Apparel&AccessoriesSalesGrowth

(Calendar1Q24to1Q26)

16%

7%

3%

-2%-2%

1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25

Jewelleryvs.Apparel&AccessoriesDeltaApparel&AccessoriesYoYgrowth

21%

15%

11%

1%

2Q253Q254Q251Q26

JewellerysalesYoYgrowth

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

Source:JapanDepartmentStoreAssociation,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT8:Revenuesreportedbyourcoveredcompanieslikelyformaportionofapparel&accessoriesrevenuesreportedbyTokyodepartmentstores,resultinginapositivecorrelation(andpointingtoapotentialproxyforJapaneserevenuetrends).However,notallvariationsobservedwillbeexplainedgivendifferencesinchannel,sell-in/sell-outtiming,andbrandrepresentation

SoftLuxury-EstimatedSemi-AnnualCCgrowthagainst

ActualChangeinTokyoDept.StoreApparel&AccessoriesSales

SoftLuxury-EstimatedCCGrowth

2H24

2H25

1H25

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%

TokyoApparel&AccessoriesSales-Semi-AnnualAverage-YoYChange

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%

-40%

-15%

1H24

R²=0.5977

2H23

Semi-Annualdatafrom1H15to2H25shown.Excludingdatafortheyears2020and2021.SoftLuxuryincludesestimatesforsemi-annualconstantcurrencygrowthforLVMHF&LG,Hermès,Kering,andPrada(from2015to2020)

Source:JapanDepartmentStoreAssociation,Bernsteinanalysisandestimates

LucaSolca+41582723126

luca.solca@

12May2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP7

EXHIBIT9:RichemonthistoricalquarterlyCFxgrowthperformancevs.consensus,bybusinessareaandbyregion

Calendar

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

RerpotedOSG%

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26

GroupCFx

12%

19%

5%

22%

19%

5%

8%

2%

1%

-1%

10%

7%

6%

14%

11%

Businessarea

JewelleryMaisons

12%

21%

8%

27%

24%

9%

12%

3%

4%

4%

14%

11%

11%

17%

14%

SpecialistWachmakers

10%

16%

-5%

13%

10%

-4%

3%

-1%

-13%

-19%

-8%

-11%

-7%

3%

7%

Other

28%

13%

6%

13%

6%

0%

-1%

0%

6%

2%

11%

7%

-1%

6%

0%

Regions

Europe

42%

36%

19%

21%

11%

-1%

-3%

7%

5%

6%

19%

13%

11%

11%

8%

AsiaPacific

-15%

6%

-9%

25%

40%

8%

13%

-12%

-18%

-18%

-7%

-7%

0%

10%

6%

Americas

25%

14%

3%

12%

-2%

4%

8%

12%

10%

12%

22%

16%

17%

20%

14%

Japan

83%

64%

43%

36%

14%

12%

18%

41%

59%

25%

19%

22%

-15%

10%

17%

MiddleEast&Africa

6%

18%

10%

20%

15%

3%

10%

15%

8%

16%

20%

14%

17%

22%

20%

ConsensusOSG%

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26

GroupCFx

18%

12%

10%

10%

20%

7%

7%

0%

1%

2%

1%

6%

5%

7%

8%

Businessarea

JewelleryMaisons

9%

12%

8%

11%

23%

9%

8%

2%

2%

5%

4%

9%

9%

10%

10%

SpecialistWachmakers

7%

7%

7%

11%

13%

3%

4%

-4%

-4%

-9%

-14%

-6%

-5%

-3%

0%

Other

11%

11%

10%

8%

10%

4%

3%

-4%

1%

4%

3%

8%

4%

2%

3%

Regions

Europe

31%

20%

10%

8%

10%

7%

-2%

-2%

5%

5%

6%

10%

10%

10%

6%

AsiaPacific

-7%

3%

5%

10%

35%

9%

16%

-1%

-15%

-14%

-14%

-1%

-4%

2%

5%

Americas

15%

8%

9%

5%

4%

-3%

4%

1%

8%

9%

10%

12%

12%

13%

11%

Japan

31%

30%

13%

20%

11%

17%

9%

19%

34%

36%

15%

9%

7%

2%

6%

MiddleEast&Africa

9%

7%

12%

10%

8%

14%

4%

6%

18%

10%

10%

12%

12%

11%

13%

Beat/Miss(Delta)bps

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26

GroupCFx

-582bps

741bps

-517bps

1210bps

-65bps

-169bps

91bps

158bps

-47bps

-320bps

900bps

100bps

100bps

700bps

300bps

Businessarea

JewelleryMaisons

251bps

889bps

26bps

1566bps

146bps

-13bps

351bps

84bps

196bps

-80bps

1000bps

200bps

200bps

700bps

400bps

SpecialistWachmakers

309bps

878bps

-1185bps

200bps

-340bps

-674bps

-80bps

295bps

-916bps

-1050bps

600bps

-500bps

-200bps

600bps

700bps

Other

1714bps

185bps

-434bps

503bps

-426bps

-393bps

-417bps

421bps

544bps

-230bps

800bps

-100bps

-500bps

400bps

-300bps

Regions

Europe

1062bps

1627bps

859bps

1346bps

99bps

-788bps

-104bps

857bps

18bps

57bps

1300bps

300bps

100bps

100bps

200bps

AsiaPacific

-847bps

322bps

-1392bps

1458bps

458bps

-60bps

-305bps

-1117bps

-289bps

-368bps

700bps

-600bps

400bps

800bps

100bps

Americas

1039bps

571bps

-573bps

661bps

-640bps

654bps

383bps

1122bps

179bps

336bps

1200bps

400bps

500bps

700bps

300bps

Japan

5232bps

3354bps

3041bps

1560bps

314bps

-469bps

863bps

2227bps

2457bps

-1088bps

400bps

1300bps

-2200bps

800bps

1100bps

MiddleEast&Africa

-281bps

1121bps

-166bps

952bps

721bps

-1085bps

624bps

878bps

-1028bps

600bps

1000bps

200bps

500bps

1100bps

700bps

Source:Companyreports,Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysis

SALESGROWTHCORRELATIONBYCOMPANY(BYCALENDARQUARTER)

EXHIBIT10:LVMHF&LGAPACex.JP

LVMHF&LG.MeritcoRevenueYoYGrowthvs.

AdjustedAPACex.JPCFx(1H22.2H25)

AdjustedAPACex.JPYoYCFx%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

1H23

y=0.4296x-0.0014

R²=0.9431

1H22

2H22

2H25

2H24

1H24

2H23

1H25

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%

MeritcoYoYRevenueGrowth%

Source:Meritco,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT11:RichemontAPACex.JP

Richemont.MeritcoRevenueYoYGrowthvs.ReportedAPACex.JPCFx(1Q23to4Q25)

ReportedAPACex.JPYoYCFx%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

3Q25

4Q25

2Q25

3Q23.

4Q24

1Q242Q241Q25

3Q24

2Q23

1Q23

4Q23

y=0.8064x+0.0483

R²=0.696

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%

MeritcoYoYRevenueGrowth%

Source:Meritco,Bernsteinanalysis

LucaSolca+41582723126

luca.solca@

12May2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP8

EXHIBIT12:HermesAPACex.JP

Hermes.MeritcoRevenueQoQGrowthvs.AdjustedAPACex.JPCFx(1Q23to1Q26)

AdjustedAPACex.JPQoQCFx%

1Q241Q23

1Q25

3Q24

y=0.5113x-0.012R²=0.8266

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%MeritcoQoQRevenueGrowth%

1Q26

3Q233Q25

4Q25

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

2Q232Q25

2Q24

4Q24

4Q23

Source:Meritco,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT14:SaintLaurentAPACex.JP

APACexJPCFx(1Q23to1Q26)

YSL-MeritcoRevenueYoYGrowthvs.Reported

ReportedAPACex.JPYoYCFx%

.

2Q23y=0.5436x-0.0616

R²=0.7498

1Q23

3Q23

1Q263Q25

4Q25

1Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q24

4Q24

2Q24

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%

-40%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%

MeritcoYoYRevenueGrowth%

4Q23

Source:Meritco,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT16:ZegnaGreaterChina

Zegna-MeritcoRevenueYoYGrowthvs.Reported

GreaterChinaCFx(1Q23-1Q26)

ReportedGreaterChinaYoYCFx%

y=0.6894x-0.0361R²=0.6793

3Q23

1Q26

3Q254Q252Q24

4Q242Q251Q25

3Q24

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%MeritcoYoYRevenueGrowth%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%

-30%

2Q234Q23

1Q23

1Q24

Source:Meritco,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT13:GucciAPACex.JP

Gucci.MeritcoRevenueYoYGrowthvs.Reported

APACex.JPCFx(1Q23to1Q26)

ReportedAPACex.JPYoYCFx%

2Q23

1Q23

20%40%60%

y=0.6456x-0.0563R²=0.8919

4Q233Q23

4Q251Q263Q25

2Q251Q25

1Q242Q24

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%-40%

-50%

-60%-40%-20%0%

MeritcoYoYRevenueGrowth%

4Q24

3Q24

Source:Meritco,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT15:SwatchGreaterChina

SwatchGroup-MeritcoRevenueYoYGrowthvs.AdjustedGreaterChinaCFx(2022-2024)

AdjustedGreaterChinaYoYCFx%

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%MeritcoYoYRevenueGrowth%

2025

2022

2024

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%

-40%

y=1.0188x-0.0432R²=0.9933

2023

Source:Meritco,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT17:MonclerbrandAsia

Moncler-MeritcoRevenue+TokyoMallApparel

RetailYoYGrowthvs.ReportedAsiaCFx(1Q23to

1Q26)

ReportedAsiaYoYCFx%

-75%-25%25%75%125%MeritcoYoYRevenue+TokyoMallApparelGrowth%

1Q23

4Q233Q23

4Q24

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

1Q24

1Q26

4Q25

2Q24

y=0.6745x+0.0493R²=0.8688

3Q243Q25

2Q23

2Q25

1Q25

Source:Meritco,JapanDepartmentStoreAssociation,Bernsteinanalysis

LucaSolca+41582723126

luca.solca@

12May2026

GLOBALLUXURYGOODSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP9

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIX

I.REQUIREDDISCLOSURES

Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe“Firm”inthesedisclosuresrelatetothefollowingentities:BernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLC

(April1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein&Co.,LLC(preApril1,2024),BernsteinAutonomousLLP,BSGFranceS.A.(April1,

2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司,SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,Sanford

C.Bernstein(India)PrivateLimited(SEBIregistrationno.INH000006378),SanfordC.Bernstein(Singapore)PrivateLimited,

SanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)andanalystsemployedbySociétéGénérale

AfricaTechnologies&ServicestoproduceBernsteinresearchunderaGlobalServicesAgreementinplacebetweenBernstein

andSociétéGénérale.

BernsteinispartofajointventurebetweenSociétéGénérale(SG)andAllianceBernstein,L.P.(AB).Unlessspecificallynotedotherwise,forpurposesofthesedisclosures,referencestoBernstein’s“affiliates”relatetobothSGandABandtheirrespectiveaffiliates.

VALUATIONMETHODOLOGY

Thisresearchpublicationcoverssixormorecompanies.Forvaluationmethodologyandothercompanydisclosures:Pleasevisit:

/sellside/Disclosures.action

.

Or,youcanalsowritetotheDirectorofCompliance,BernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLC,245ParkAvenue,NewYork,NY10167.

RISKS

Thisresearchpublicationcoverssixormorecompanies.Forrisksandothercompanydisclosures:Pleasevisit:

/sellside/Disclosures.action

.

Or,youcanalsowritetotheDirectorofCompliance,BernsteinInstitutionalServicesLLC,245ParkAvenue,NewYork,NY10167.

RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION

EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS

Bernsteinbrand

TheBernsteinbrandratesstocksbasedonforecastsofrelativeperformanceforthenext12monthsversustheS&P500forstockslistedontheU.S.andCanadianexchanges,versustheBloombergEuropeDevelopedMarketsLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexEUR(EDME)forstockslistedontheEuropeanexchangesandemergingmarketsexchangesoutsideoftheAsiaPacificregion,versustheBloombergJapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexUSD(JPL)forstockslistedontheJapaneseexchanges,andversustheBloombergAsiaex-JapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndex(ASIAX)forstockslistedontheAsian(ex-Japan)exchanges-unlessotherwisespecified.

TheBernsteinbrandhasthreecategoriesofratings:

•Outperform:Stockwilloutpacethemarketindexbymorethan15pp

•Market-