瑞银-矿业策略：路演：中国之行反馈形势好转-Mining Strategy On the Road：China trip feedback-Better-20260525

a§ WhatwasthetakeawayfromourlatestChin+852-37124548+61-3-92426709uplift.●婚§2 ●●●●tailwind.●婚§3 ●婚§4 ●●Steel婚§5 shipmentsin2026fr●DemandMix:婚§6 a§7 MMG婚§8CHiNAmAcRoEcoNomicsiGNALsMar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26%y/y%m/m%YTDBusinessCycleIndicators50.850.449.549.549.449.149.850.150.350.549.049.549.749.349.449.849.049.050.450.351.151.451.751.849.850.449.350.351.550.550.150.851.250.448.350.449.550.551.250.649.950.150.352.150.852.2SteelIndustry:OverallIndex44.247.949.847.842.540.449.054.650.647.543.345.146.050.646.445.950.549.847.749.248.046.349.946.750.649.2-3%-3%SteelIndustry:OutputIndex37.749.750.645.938.534.954.863.653.648.342.545.647.150.842.843.551.948.045.749.845.943.748.446.853.348.7-4%-9%MacroIndicatorsIPGrowth(NSA)%y/y4.1-33%-28%RetailSales%y/y2.04.83.03.73.03.03.02.80.2-96%-88%OverallFAIYTD,%yy3.2#N/A-0.5-1.7-2.6-3.8#N/A-1.6Credit&LiquidityChinaTSFRMBTn4.8-0.83.0-46%-88%RMBLoans(TSF)RMBTn2.2-0.12.0-3.2-0.4-553%-113%M1Growth%y/y#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A5.0M2Growth%y/y8.59.09.08.58.6SHIBOR-3Month%2.22.02.0-19%-6%CommodityOutputCrudeSteelMt88.385.992.991.682.977.977.181.978.476.084.881.592.886.086.583.279.777.473.572.069.968.281.878.687.083.6-3%-4%-4%72.771.676.174.571.468.166.870.367.566.771.869.075.372.674.171.970.869.866.065.562.360.770.267.573.370.7-3%-4%-2%IronOre(ROM)Mt98.187.988.596.670.273.682.886.481.284.976.082.383.584.785.889.086.381.684.384.083.079.377.684.179.682.8-2%-1%400.3370.2382.1407.6391.4395.2423.6416.3429.9437.0402.1363.2437.3382.1400.6419.2374.7385.9405.0403.0428.5430.1400.8362.0440.5380.6-14%CokeMt39.438.541.041.641.640.939.341.240.741.541.041.041.341.642.441.741.942.642.641.941.742.741.341.342.841.5-3%PrimaryAluminiumMt3.593.583.653.673.683.733.653.723.713.773.663.663.753.753.833.813.783.803.813.803.793.873.773.773.853.87RefinedCopperkt-5%AluminaMt8.18.0-3%ConsumerApplianceOutputRefigeratorsmunits9.69.08.69.08.09.09.48.8-8%AirConditionersmunits30.830.323.721.533.730.829.528.420.621.620.934.628.2-18%-3%WashingMachinesmunits8.88.2-12%TVsmunits20.6-12%-9%-8%FAI-SelectedSectorsManufacturingYTD,%yy9.2#N/A9.02.70.6#N/A3.14.1-86%InfrastructureYTD,%yy6.56.04.24.4#N/A2.0-0.1-1.1-2.2CoalMiningSectorYTD,%yy32.98.99.4#N/A22.69.3#N/A23.925.5-14%SteelSectorYTD,%yy4.32.8#N/A-1.6-0.6-4.1-3.3-2.0-2.0-1.3-2.6#N/A4.3-0.2-1.9-195%AutosMotorVehicleOutputmunits2.83.02.03.0-2%-16%-4%NEVOutput10kunits(Y208294388490589713844990316440564687805938302429-3%EVVehicleOutputkunits890860940990910910800800-11%-3%NEVOutput%y/y617%755%685%607%675%555%356%894%950%53%53%51%44%32%21%21%-12%-12%6%2%InventoryAlertIndexUnderConstructionYTD,msqm6,7856,8756,8896,9687,0337,0947,1607,2077,2607,332#N/A6,0606,1376,2036,2506,3336,3876,4316,4866,5296,5616,599#N/A5,3545,4175,451-12%NewStartsYTD,msqm235301380437495561612673739#N/A232304352398454491535588#N/A-22%SalesYTD,msqm227293366479541606703779861974#N/A219283353459516573658720787881#N/A253-11%CompletionsYTD,msqm222265300334368420482737#N/A226250277311349395603#N/A-24%UnderConstructionYTD,%yy-11%-13%-16%-17%-18%-19%-21%-22%#N/A-5%#N/A-9%-10%-10%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-10%-10%#N/A-12%-12%-12%24%NewStartsYTD,%yy-75%-76%-75%-73%-73%-73%-72%-73%#N/A334%#N/A-30%-25%-24%-23%-20%-19%-20%-19%-20%-21%-20%#N/A-23%-20%-22%-9%SalesYTD,%yy-53%-58%-56%-51%-54%-55%-53%-56%#N/A461%#N/A-5%-4%-3%-4%-4%-5%-5%-6%-8%-9%-10%#N/A-14%-11%-11%214%CompletionsYTD,%yy-36%-35%-33%-29%-27%-32%-38%-54%#N/A445%#N/A-16%-14%-17%-17%-15%-17%-17%-15%-17%-18%-18%#N/A-28%-25%-24%41%ElectricityGenerationTotalElectricityProductTwh748690718769883907802731750846821671778711738796927936826800779859864707802744-7%ThermalPowerTwh520458454487575615545477517598562460510449461494602627517514497581580474533464-13%HydroPowerTwhNuclearTwh4040424043414343404540-12%-1%-5%WindTwh-13% a§9CHiNAMAcRoEcoNomicSigNAls%y/y60%%y/y60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26%y/yApr-21Apr-24Apr-26%y/yApr-21Apr-24Apr-26140%7120%6100%580%460%340%220%10%0Apr-22Apr-23Apr-25Apr-22Apr-23Apr-25%y/yApr-22Apr-23Apr%y/yApr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-2630%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%Apr-21Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26%y/y80%60%%y/y80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26%y/y%y/y9876Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-2620%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Apr-25Apr-26Apr-23Apr-244,5004,000Apr-21Apr-22%y/y30Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-2660555045403512mma婚§10cHinAkEytRAdEfLows a§400000Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26504000Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-2687654321020%15%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26%3m/3my30%20%30%20%10%0%-10%30%20%10%0%-10%Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26%3m/3m40%30%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26%3m/3ma§0.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-268640Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-2640009876543210Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-260 %3m/3m20%%3m/3m20%0%-20%Apr-21Apr-22Apr-2380%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%Apr-24Apr-25Apr-2640%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26100%200%150%50%100%50%0%0%-50%-50%-100%Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-26Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr- a§Aug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-253.0mn2.5mn2.0mn1.5mn1.0mn0.5mn0.0mn30mn25mn20mn0mnTotalRestofWorld3%6%21%China61%NorthAmerica9%monthlybatterydeploymentsAug-22Aug-23Aug-24monthlybatterydeploymentsAug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-25annualisedbatterydeployments1,600GWh1,400GWh1,200GWh1,000GWh800GWh600GWh400GWh200GWh0GWh160GWh140GWh120GWh100GWh80GWh60GWh40GWh20GWh0GWhTotal(ann'd3mma)Aug-23Aug-24AugAug-23Aug-24Aug-2570%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%%3m/3m%y/y(rhs)Aug-21Aug-22Aug-21Aug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-2580%75%80%75%70%65%60%55%50%35%30%25%20%15%10%3mma,%y/yAug-233mma,%y/yAug-23Aug-24Aug-25250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%a§2.0mn1.8mn1.6mn1.4mn1.2mn1.0mn0.8mn0.6mn0.4mn0.2mn0.0mn20mn18mn16mn14mn12mn10mn8mn6mn4mn2mn0mnann'd,3mma,rhsmthlyAug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-25600k500k400k300k200k100k0kAug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-25mmmthlyann'd,3mma,mmmthly6.0mn5.0mn4.0mn3.0mn2.0mn0.0mn250k200k150k100k50k0kAug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-25mmmthlyann'd,3mma,mmmthly3.0mn2.5mn2.0mn1.5mn1.0mn0.5mn0.0mnAug-23Aug-24AugAug-23Aug-24Aug-2580%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%%y/y(3mma,rhs)%3m/3m80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%Aug-2380%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%Aug-23Aug-24Aug-2560%40%20%0%-20%-40%%3m/3m%3m/3m80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%Aug-2380%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%Aug-23Aug-24Aug-2560%40%20%0%-20%-40%%3m/3m%3m/3ma§Aug-22Aug-23Aug-24AugAug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-251.8mn1.5mn1.2mn0.9mn0.6mn0.3mn0.0mn180k150k120k90k60k30k0kann'd,3mma,rhsmthlyAug-22Aug-23Aug-24AugAug-22Aug-23Aug-24Aug-251.0mn0.9mn0.8mn0.7mn0.6mn0.5mn0.4mn0.3mn0.2mn0.1mn0.0mn100k90k80k70k60k50k40k30k20k0kann'd,3mma,rhsmthlyAug-23Aug-24Aug-25Aug-23Aug-24Aug-2580%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%%3m/3m%y/y(rhs)100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%100%Aug-23Aug-24Aug-25Aug-23Aug-24Aug-2580%60%40%20%0%-20%80%60%40%20%0%-20%%3m/3m a§IronOreSupply-DemandBalance20212022202320242025e2026eIRONOREMODELGlobalCommodities&Mining2027e2028eCrudeSteelOutputChina1,0331,0181,0291,0051,0111,001995989Japan9689878481787676SouthKorea7066676461616161Taiwan2321191918191919India118125141149164176186197205182170175175187174198Others417388392387367361372371Total1,9631,8891,9041,8831,8771,8831,8821,910%y/y4%-4%1%-1%0%0%0%1%HotMetalOutputChina869865874855867859853838Japan7064636159575555SouthKorea4643454442424242Taiwan1513121211121212India1171221361451591701801919887798080868091Others253235241241220212218216GlobalHotMetalOutput1,4701,4301,4501,4381,4391,4381,4411,445%y/y3%-3%1%-1%0%0%0%0%IronOreImports=>DemandChina1,1201,1061,1781,2381,2661,2531,2541,249Japan1131041029688858282SouthKorea7466686965656565Taiwan2523192018191919134117107105105113105119Others123118124126109105108121Total1,5891,5341,6001,6561,6521,6401,6331,656%y/y1.1%-3.5%4.3%3.5%-0.2%-0.7%-0.4%1.4%Demandimpulsemty/y18-5566568%-4-12-6221IronOreExports=>SupplyAustralia919929932933952970980992Brazil357344380391420425435448SouthAfrica67585957575753535557India3616444425111NorthAmerica7168707271909496Africa182323263463102143161161Ukraine4424183431222229Others155143159158153156160162Total1,6681,6051,6851,7141,7431,7941,8471,923%y/y0.6%-3.7%5.0%1.7%1.7%2.9%3.0%4.1%Supplyimpulsemty/y11-63802829515376Supplyimpulse-Demandimpulse1533636054UnadjustedSeaborneBalance7871865891154214267Adjustmentfactor2.9%5.8%6.2%1.6%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Chinaportinventory,chge29304Chinadomesticproduction295286284288278268258238228228IronOreFines62%CFRChina1601211201101021009592IronOreLump62%CFRChina182136129118111109104104a§ChinaCapacity1,1491,1481,1471,1501,1421,1481,1501,1501,1501,1501,1501,150yoygrowth2%0%0%0%-1%0%0%0%0%0%0%Production-crudesteel9951,0651,0331,0181,0291,0181,0111,001995989979968yoygrowth7.2%7.0%-3.0%-1.4%1.1%-1.1%-0.7%-1.0%-0.6%-0.6%-1.0%-1.2%Utilisationrate87%93%90%89%90%89%88%87%87%86%85%84%Netexports-48-14-38-51-83-108-127-130-125-124-118-112Consumption9501,051994965943892879866865860857852yoygrowth9.1%10.6%-5.4%-2.9%-2.3%-5.4%-1.5%-1.5%-0.1%-0.5%-0.4%-0.6%Worldex-China2019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ECapacity1,2641,2731,2811,3091,2911,3241,3731,4221,4551,4701,4881,513yoygrowth2%-1%3%4%4%2%2%Production-crudesteel880816930872875872865879901921945971yoygrowth-2.1%-7.3%14.0%-6.3%0.4%-0.4%-0.7%1.5%2.6%2.2%2.6%2.7%Utilisationrate70%64%73%67%68%66%63%62%62%63%64%64%Netimports50723497298Consumption9418489679259499649911,0121,0331,0521,0691,089yoygrowth-2%-10%14%-4.3%3%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%WorldCapacity2,4132,4212,4272,4592,4322,4722,5232,5732,6052,6212,6382,664yoygrowth0%0%-1%2%2%2%Production-crudesteel1,8751,8801,9631,8891,9041,8891,8771,8801,8961,9101,9251,939yoygrowth2.7%0.3%4.4%-3.7%0.8%-0.8%-0.7%0.2%0.9%0.7%0.8%0.7%Utilisationrate78%78%81%77%78%76%74%73%73%73%73%73%Netimports2-7-15-2-11-11000000Consumption1,8901,8981,9611,8911,8921,8561,8701,8781,8981,9121,9261,941yoygrowth3%0%3%-4%0%-2%0%a§202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ECrudeSteelOutputMt995989979968Mt209222Mt8396898784817876767676Mt6770666764616161616161TaiwanMt212321Mt200226204209214Mt67636263646669717477OthersMt289329319323317297289297293298303GlobalCrudeSteelProductionMt1,8801,9631,8891,9041,8831,8771,8831,8821,9101,9241,939%y/y%0%4%-4%1%-1%0%0%0%1%1%1%GlobalHotMetalProductionMt1,3321,3481,3011,3491,3221,3431,3461,3411,3421,3411,337%y/y%0%1%-3%4%-2%2%0%0%0%0%0%GlobalMetCoalProductionMt1,1191,1261,1061,1091,1071,1181,1151,1061,1031,0961,085%y/y%-2%1%-2%0%0%1%0%-1%0%-1%-1%MetCoalImportDemandMt4866777049484545Mt6069727578869197Mt49474645444342Mt3335333336333232323231TaiwanMt999999Mt49484445444941484849Mt25263235384144OthersMtTotalSeaborneImportDemandMt294303299315333324317313327331339%y/y%-4%3%-1%6%6%-3%-2%-1%4%1%2%MetCoalExportSupplyAustraliaMtMt2727283130313030313133Mt37384144494549464746Mt364348646565OthersMt2228332828292933TotalSeaborneExportSupplyMt287293295311326322314322321326336%y/y%-9%2%1%6%5%-1%-2%2%0%2%3%Mt205Mt7073737778757171686869Mt61606061Mt-7-10-3-4-7-2-38-6-5-322536629624123022523023524078332219Semi-softcokingcoalprChinaMetCoalMarket69287ChinaCrudeSteelProduction1,0651,0331,0181,0291,0051,0111,0019959899799687%-3%-1%1%-2%1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%PigIronProduction9018668659108859089018928788638446%-4%0%5%-3%3%-1%-1%-2%-2%-2%DomesticMetCoalProduction7207126976666406215975755555335132%-1%-2%-4%-4%-3%-4%-4%-3%-4%-4%MetCoalImports486677704948454525%-14%-6%37%17%-9%-26%-5%-2%-7%2%PigIron-MetCoalRatio0.860.880.860.800.810.800.800.800.790.790.78-2%2%-2%-7%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%a§2020202120222023202420252026COPPERMODELGlobalCommodities&Mining2027202820292030MineProductionChileKt5,7935,6605,3585,2655,5555,3335,3375,3805,7265,6275,789PeruKt2,1352,2822,4112,7242,6402,6972,8412,6982,7062,6592,551DRCKt1,7192,0162,4372,6503,1713,1323,3363,4703,5563,6923,741ZambiaKt8528267847017408469861,0201,1151,1621,191USAKt1,2271,2641,2611,1591,0931,1631,2581,3111,2721,1471,118MexicoKt728705700704721744760706676669623OtherKt8,4848,6949,1229,1059,1069,1899,87610,45010,77111,10211,293MineSupplyKt20,93921,44822,07322,30823,02723,10524,39325,03425,82226,05826,307DisruptionKt0000001,2251,2501,3001,3001,325MineSupplyKt20,93921,44822,07322,30823,02723,10523,16823,78424,52224,75824,982Changey/y%0.6%2.4%2.9%1.1%3.2%0.3%0.3%2.7%3.1%1.0%0.9%RefinedProductionConcentrateKt17,52318,04318,37918,73519,41419,57919,75220,50521,28521,48321,746SecondaryScrap(netKt2,9843,4943,2013,5543,8624,7814,9885,1355,2895,4315,591RefineryOutputKt20,50721,53721,58022,28923,27624,36024,74125,64026,57426,91427,337SXEWKt3,5433,4253,6073,5703,6263,5763,4213,2773,2463,2723,246TotalRefinedKt24,05024,96325,18825,85826,90327,93628,16128,91829,81930,18630,583Change%1.7%3.8%0.9%2.7%4.0%3.8%0.8%2.7%3.1%1.2%1.3%DemandChinaKt14,79515,32915,48316,60017,30817,88718,11018,57919,09819,66820,193EuropeKt4,7815,3575,3294,9745,0205,0835,2385,4285,6315,8286,056NorthAmericaKt2,7893,1233,0672,8963,0073,1173,2953,5213,7564,0114,283OtherAsiaKt4,3374,7324,6054,3524,4574,5814,7064,8615,0175,1615,263OtherKt2,8243,0813,3203,3833,5433,6923,8213,9984,1884,3864,588TotalDemandKt29,52631,62231,80532,20433,33534,36135,16936,38737,69039,05340,382Changey/y%-1.9%7.1%0.6%1.3%3.5%3.1%2.4%3.5%3.6%3.6%3.4%DirectUseScrapKt5,5186,6836,5936,3116,5536,5726,8477,2027,5778,0008,400Changey/y%-12.3%21.1%-1.3%-4.3%3.8%0.3%4.2%5.2%5.2%5.6%5.0%RefinedDemandKt24,00124,94925,20525,82126,72527,78928,32229,18530,11331,05431,982Changey/y%0.6%3.9%1.0%2.4%3.5%4.0%1.9%3.0%3.2%3.1%3.0%BalanceKt4914-1737178147-161-268-293-868-1,399EnergytransitiondemandEV4177039981,2521,4691,7521,9352,1622,3182,4842,673Wind&Solar1,3551,3701,4772,2632,4992,9022,8372,8782,9353,0113,080ElectricalInfra7,4397,6927,9778,1578,4879,0809,66210,22310,81211,42412,029Total9,2119,76510,45211,67112,45513,73414,43415,26316,06516,91917,782EnergyTransition%31%31%33%36%37%40%41%42%43%43%44%%ofgrowth331%58%268%198%87%120%131%96%87%91%93%a§ALUMINIUMMODELBauxiteBauxite&Alumina202020212022202320242025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eGlobalBauxiteSupply406417419419420growthinsupply%3.4%2.0%0.7%4.1%-3.5%2.3%3.8%2.6%GlobalBauxiteDemand406418421423423GlobalBauxiteBalanceGlobalAluminaSupply(Metgrade)growthinsupply%4.2%5.3%3.2%2.8%0.9%GlobalAluminaDemandAluminaMarketBalanceMt0.10.20.20.30.24.38.57.