2026年第一季度人工智能风险投资趋势报告

EMERGINGTECHRESEARCH

AIVCTrends

VCactivityacrosstheAIecosystem

Q1

2026

REPORTPREVIEW

Thefullreportisavailable

throughthePitchBookPlatform.

Contents

AIlandscape3

Quarterlyanalysis4

Keytakeaways4

VCactivity4

Exits4

Valuations5

Keydeals5

Macrobackdrop6

Outlook6

AIVCdealsummary21

2Q12026AIVCTRENDS

InstitutionalResearchGroup

DimitriZabelin

SeniorResearchAnalyst,AIandCybersecurity

dimitri.zabelin@

OscarAllaway

SeniorDataAnalyst

pbinstitutionalresearch@

PublishedonMay12,2026

CONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

AI

landscape

HorizontalplatformsVerticalapplicationsSemiconductors

Autonomousmachines

ForthecompleteAItaxonomyand

companylist,

clickhere

toseethe

marketmaponthePitchBookPlatform.

3Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

4Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

Quarterlyanalysis

Keytakeaways

•AIVCinvestmentinQ12026surpassedthefull-year2025totalinasinglequarter.Totalfundingreached$255.5billion,drivenbyanextraordinaryconcentrationofcapitalinhorizontalplatforms.

•Autonomousmachinespostedarecordquarterinbothdealvalueandcapitaldeployment.Waymo’s$16billionSeriesDanchored$29billionintotalsegmentinvestment,more

thantriplingQ42025dealvalue.

•OpenAIcloseda$122billionround,whileSpaceX’s$250billionacquisitionofxAIstandsasthelargestAI-relatedM&Atransactioneverrecorded.ThedealexceededthecombinedvalueofallAIM&Aactivityoverthepriorthreeyears.

VCactivity

Drivenbyahandfulofmegadeals,Q1hasalreadyeclipsedallof2025intotalAIVCfundingactivity.Totalfundingclimbedfrom$254.4billionacrossfull-year2025to$255.5billioninQ12026alone.Asexpected,megadealactivitywasconcentratedinhorizontalplatforms,whichonceagaincapturedadisproportionateshareofdealvaluerelativetodealcount,leadingthesegmentat$197billionacross396deals.Thesegmentsurpasseditsfull-year2025totalof$110billioninasinglequarter,markingthelargestincreaseonbotharelativeandabsolutebasisinthesegment’shistory.

Verticalapplicationsregistered948dealsacross$22billionintransactions,withbothdealcountandvaluefallingbelowthepreviousquarter.Thesegmentisconsolidating:Dealcountshavefallensharply

fromtheirQ12022peakof1,938,withQ12026hittingthelowestlevelsince2018.Capitaldeployedhasnotcontractedinlockstep,however.Q12026sawnearlyasmuchinvestmentasQ12022($22.8billionvs.$26.1billion)acrossroughlyhalfasmanydeals.

Semiconductorspostedtheirsecond-bestquarteronrecordat$5billionacross84transactions,

trailingonlyQ42025’s$6billionacross99transactions.Thelargestdiscloseddealwasa$1.1billionSeriesHinvestmentintoCerebrasSystems,ledbyTigerGlobalManagement.ThechipmakerfiledforitssecondIPOattemptonApril17.Autonomousmachinespostedarecordquarter,registering$29billionacross118transactionsinQ1,matchingQ4’sdealcountwhiledeliveringmorethan3xthedealvalue.Forcontext,full-year2025totaled$24billionacross455transactions.ThesurgeindealvaluecamefromWaymo’s$16billionSeriesD,withthenext-largestat$1.7billionforNeuraRobotics.

Onatrailing12-month(TTM)basis,thedivergencebetweenhorizontalplatformsandverticalapplicationsgrewmorepronounced.Horizontalplatformsleddealvalueat$299billionacross

1,823deals,whileverticalapplicationsledoncountat4,667dealsbutraisedlessthan1.5xthecapitalat$101billion.

Exits

SpaceX’sacquisitionofxAIstoodasthesingle-largestAI-relatedM&Atransactiononrecord,

exceedingthecombinedvalueofallAIM&Aactivityoverthepriorthreeyears.Thedealwascompletedaheadofa

SpaceXIPO

tostrengthenthecompany’spositioning.Thesecond-andthird-largestexitsinthequarterwereZhipu’spubliclistingandMarvellTechnology’sacquisitionofCelestialAI.Horizontalplatformsaccountedforroughlyathirdofthetop20AIVCexitsbycountbut91%oftotaldisclosed

5Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

QUARTERLYANALYSIS

exitvalue,reflectingacontinuedpremiumforthesegment.ThisdynamicisfurtherreflectedacrosstheagenticAIlandscape,whereverticalapplicationscontinuetodrawsignificantM&Ainterestwhilesector-agnostichorizontalplatformsfacebetterIPOprospects.

Valuations

Venturegrowthrecordedthelargestincreaseinmedianpre-moneyvaluationsinbothabsoluteandpercentageterms,risingfrom$327.5millioninQ42025to$868.4millioninQ12026,againofmorethan165%.Overallmedianpre-moneyvaluationsnearlydoubledoverthesameperiod,from$30

millionto$69.9million.

Early-stageVCwasthestandout,withmedianpre-moneyvaluationsrisingfrom$57millionto$111.2million,whilelate-stageVCsawacomparablemovefrom$51.2millionto$116.3million.Pre-seed/seedremainedthemoststable,edgingupfrom$14.4millionto$16.8million,consistentwithits

historicallysteadytrajectory.

DealcountsremainedmutedacrossallstagesinQ12026,continuingthebroadertrendofcapitalconcentratingintofewer,largertransactions.Venturegrowthwastheonlystagetoholdrelativelystableindealactivity,reinforcingthepatternofinvestorscommittingdeepercapitalintoanarrowersetoflate-stagewinners.

MediandealsizesacceleratedsharplyattheearlyVCstage,risingfrom$9millionto$16million,whileoverallmediandealsizesrosefrom$5.8millionto$8.8million.Valuationstep-upsexpandedalongsidedealsizes,withearly-stageVCcompaniescommandingpre-moneyvaluations3.1xhigherthantheir

priorroundinQ12026.Thismarksthelargestjumpbetweenroundsseenacrossanystagesince

2015.Late-stageVCroseto2xoverthesameperiod.Allstagesendedtheperiodabovetheirhistoricalaveragestep-uplevels.

Keydeals

NotabledealsinQ12026weredominatedbyhorizontalplatforms,withthethreelargestfinancingsalloccurringwithinthesegment.OpenAIclosedarecord$122billionfundinground,exceedingthecombinedtotalofthenext19largestventure-growthdealsinthequarter.Anthropicfollowedwitha$30billionraise,whilexAIsecured$20billion,underscoringthecontinuedconcentrationofcapitalatthefrontiermodellayer.

Thequarter’smostsignificanttransactionwasSpaceX’sacquisitionofxAIfor$250billion,executedaheadoftherocketcompany’santicipatedIPOinmid-to-lateJune.Thedealrepresentsoneofthe

largestcorporateacquisitionsinprivatemarkethistory.Itreflectsthegrowingstrategicimperative

amonginfrastructure-layerplayerstosecureproprietaryAIcapabilitiesaheadofpublicmarketdebut.

Waymo’s$16billionlate-stagefundingroundpropelledtheautonomousmachinessegmenttoall-timehighsindealactivityonbothaquarterlyandannualbasis,thestrongestreadinginthedatasetgoingbackto2015.Early-stageandpre-seed/seedactivityremainedcomparativelymodest,withcapital

concentratedinthelowsingle-digitbillionsandthetopthreedealssplitacrosshorizontalplatformsandverticalapplications.

6Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

QUARTERLYANALYSIS

Macrobackdrop

WeseethemacroeconomicbackdropsignificantlyimpactingAIinvestorsentiment:Itinfluencesriskappetite,fundingavailability,andmarketvaluationsforAIcompanies.Assuch,geopoliticalrisksin

Q2remainanoverhangingconcernforthebroadermarket,withtheongoingwarinIranandelevatedenergypricesintroducingpersistentinflationuncertainty.DisruptionstoStraitofHormuzshipping

laneshavecompoundedsupply-sidepressures,drivingenergycostshigherandaddingastructuraldimensiontowhatmightotherwisebetransitoryinflation.Politicalvolatilityhashadameasurable

chillingeffectonriskappetite,contributingtoheightenedequitymarketvolatilityasinvestorsweightheimplicationsofsustainedenergycostsoneconomicgrowthandthetrajectoryofFederalReserve(theFed)policy.

InQ4,theFederalOpenMarketCommitteejustifiedcuttinginterestratesbasedonaweakening

labormarket,despiteinflationhoveringabovetheFed’s2%targetformorethantwoyears.However,

ifinflationarypressuresprovemoredurablethanexpected,rate-cutprospectscoulddiminish,

temperingupsidemomentuminbothpublicequitiesandtheIPOmarket.WesawthisinQ2,with

theFedholdinginterestratessteadyonApril29,2026,giventhisuncertainty.Therewassignificant

dissentaboutfuturepolicydirection.Thisisunlikelytoderailactivityoutrightbutcouldintroducea

meaningfulheadwind,slowingthepaceofexitsordampeningvaluationexpansionevenwithbetter

revenuegrowth.PublicQ1earningsannouncementswilllikelyaddressnear-termgrowthconcerns,butsustainedhigherpricesarethelikelynextsignificanttriggerpointforthemarket.

Outlook

Capitalconcentrationinhorizontalplatformsisexpectedtopersistthrough2026andbeyond,

particularlyatthefrontiermodellayer.Thethesiscarriesdualfunctionforallocators:portfoliohedgeagainsttheAItransitionandalphageneration.Thebasecasetreatsfrontiermodelintelligenceasasecular,non-cyclicallayerofthedigitaleconomy.Anthropic’santicipatedIPOshouldextendcapital

magnetizationintothesegment,supportedbyitsgrowingadvantageoverincumbentOpenAI.Verticalapplicationsarepositionedforcontinueddealcountexpansionatamoderatingpace.Valuation

step-upsshouldtrendhigherascategoryleadersconsolidateandcapitaldeploysdeeperintoapparentwinners.

Semiconductorsretainfavorablestructuraltailwinds.Persistentcomputeandmemorysupply

constraintscontinuetorewardpubliclytradedincumbentsNVIDIAandSKHynix.Capitalmarkets

pathwaysareopeningforchallengersincludingCerebras,whichfileditssecondIPOattemptonApril17.Autonomousmachineswilllikelyattractsustainedinvestment,withautonomousvehiclesand

roboticsservingasprimarycapitalmagnets.Manufacturingscale,regulatoryapprovals,andunit-costreductionsinmatureautonomystacksareacceleratingcommercialdeploymenttimelines.

7Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

QUARTERLYANALYSIS

$28.6

$38.6

$65.8

$68.2

$87.0

$181.1

$124.6

$100.7

$156.0

$254.4

$255.5

10,292

9,446

7,5977,790

7,5657,8116,944

6,393

5,147

3,725

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Dealvalue($B)Dealcount

AIVCdealactivity

1,546

Source:PitchBook•Geography:Global•AsofMarch31,2026

$7.2

$13.0

$29.3

$102.1

$71.2

$274.7

$53.7

$28.4

$51.2

$157.6

$298.9

721

559

166

696

355

217298

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Exitvalue($B)Exitcount

545

487

AIVCexitactivity

140

75

Source:PitchBook•Geography:Global•AsofMarch31,2026

QUARTERLYANALYSIS

8Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1

202120222023202420252026

Dealvalue($B)Dealcount

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

AIVCdealactivitybyquarter

Source:PitchBook•Geography:Global•AsofMarch31,2026

4,667

1,823

458

372

$21,298.7$51,156.8$299,309.7$101,453.7

SemiconductorsAutonomousHorizontalplatformsVerticalapplications

machines

Dealvalue($M)Dealcount

TTMAIVCdealactivitybysegment

Source:PitchBook•Geography:Global•AsofMarch31,2026

QUARTERLYANALYSIS

17Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

KeyAIVCdealsinQ12026

Company

OpenAI

Closedate

March31

Segment

Horizontalplatforms

Subsegment

AIcore

Dealvalue($M)

$122,000.0

Post-money

valuation($M)

$852,000.0

Dealtype

Late-stageVC

Leadinvestor(s)

A

,AndreessenHorowitz,NVIDIA,SoftBankGroup

Valuationstep-up(posttopre)

N/A

Anthropic

February12

Horizontalplatforms

AIcore

$30,600.0

$380,000.0

Late-stageVC

CoatueManagement,DragoneerInvestmentGroup,FoundersFund,GICPrivate,ICONIQCapital,MGX,TheD.E.ShawGroup

1.9x

xAI

January6

Horizontalplatforms

AIcore

$20,000.0

$230,000.0

Late-stageVC

NVIDIA,ValorEquityPartners

2.8x

Waymo

February2

Autonomousmachines

Autonomousvehicles

$16,000.0

$126,000.0

Late-stageVC

DSTGlobal,DragoneerInvestmentGroup,MubadalaInvestmentCompany,SequoiaCapital

2.4x

Databricks

February9

Horizontalplatforms

AIautomationplatforms

$7,000.0

$134,000.0

Late-stageVC

FidelityManagement&ResearchCompany,InsightPartners(NewYork),J.P.MorganGrowthEquityPartners

1.3x

Nscale

March9

Horizontalplatforms

AIcore

$2,000.0

$14,600.0

Late-stageVC

8090Industries,Aker

N/A

Rokid

January28

Horizontalplatforms

Naturallanguagetechnology

$2,000.0

N/A

Late-stageVC

N/A

N/A

NeuraRobotics

March12

Autonomousmachines

Intelligentrobotics

$1,763.0

$5,876.7

Late-stageVC

N/A

N/A

Saronic

March31

Autonomousmachines

Intelligentrobotics

$1,750.0

$9,250.0

Late-stageVC

KleinerPerkins

1.9x

Wayve

February28

Autonomousmachines

Autonomousvehicles

$1,500.0

$8,600.0

Late-stageVC

BaldertonCapital,EclipseCapital,SoftBankInvestmentAdvisers

N/A

Source:PitchBook•Geography:Global•AsofMarch31,2026

QUARTERLYANALYSIS

18Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

KeyAIVCexitsinQ12026

Company

xAI

Closedate

January16

Exitvalue($M)

$250,000.0

Post-money

valuation($M)

$250,000.0

Exittype

Acquisition

Segment

Horizontalplatforms

Acquirer(s)

SpaceX

Zhipu

January8

$6,014.2

$6,572.9

Publiclisting

Horizontalplatforms

N/A

CelestialAI

February2

$6,000.0

$6,000.0

Acquisition

Horizontalplatforms

MarvellTechnology

MiniMaxAI

January9

$5,937.3

$6,556.3

Publiclisting

Horizontalplatforms

AbuDhabiInvestmentAuthority,AlibabaGroup,AspexManagement,ChinaUniversalAssetManagement,EFundManagement,EastspringInvestments,IDGCapital,JanchorPartners,MPC(Beijing),MiraeAssetSecurities,

PerseveranceAssetManagement,TaikangLifeInsurance

Biren

Technology

January2

$5,872.5

$6,664.8

Publiclisting

Semiconductors

N/A

Shanghai

IluvatarCoreXSemiconductor

January8

$4,252.6

$4,252.6

Publiclisting

Semiconductors

AlphahillCapital,Beijing4ParadigmIntelligentTechnology,BeijingTeamsunTechnologyCompany,Centurium

Capital,ChinaAssetManagementCompany,ChinaOrientAssetManagement(International)Holding,ChinaUniversalAssetManagement,EngineTech,HuataiCapitalInvestment,SinoICLeasing,TongFuMicroelectronics,UBSAsset

ManagementAmericas,WindSabreCapital,ZTE,deeprootspartners

Chronosphere

January29

$3,350.0

$3,350.0

Acquisition

Horizontalplatforms

PaloAltoNetworks

Xanadu

March27

$2,825.0

$3,600.0

Publiclisting

Semiconductors

CraneHarborAcquisition

Infieqtion

February17

$1,800.0

$2,216.0

Publiclisting

Semiconductors

ChurchillCapitalX

Source:PitchBook•Geography:Global•AsofMarch31,2026

21Q12026AIVCTRENDSCONFIDENTIAL.NOTFORREDISTRIBUTION.

AIVCdealsummary

TTMactivity

Quarterlyactivity

Q22024-Q12025Q22025-Q12026

Dealcount

QoQchange

ShareoftotalVC

Dealvalue($B)

QoQchange

ShareoftotalVC

Exitcount

Publiclistings

Acquisitions

Buyouts

Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42025Q12026

2,037

1,870

1,898

2,006

1,546

7,629

7,320

7.9%

-8.2%

1.5%

5.7%

-22.9%

N/A

-4.1%

17.5%