招商银行2026年一季报点评：如何看待招行投资收益负增长

关键财务指标（百万元）关键财务指标（百万元）2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1总资产总负债总存款营业收入拨备前利润净利润11,574,7836,747,80410,457,7588,765,124172,945116,57775,37911,654,7636,758,75110,495,1288,823,606252,709170,431114,03912,152,0366,888,31510,918,5619,195,329337,488219,471149,55912,529,7927,125,47911,275,9289,406,23083,75157,07937,51312,657,1517,116,61611,360,2919,509,526169,969113,54075,40512,644,0757,136,28511,368,9399,608,951251,420168,449114,53713,070,5237,258,05811,789,6249,924,558337,532218,768151,12613,484,8827,464,37312,194,29710,042,12386,94059,52538,0487.77%9.25%10.19%8.76%9.35%8.49%7.56%7.62%6.17%4.70%5.83%4.54%5.47%5.59%5.37%4.76%8.23%9.51%11.59%10.22%8.49%8.90%7.93%6.76%-3.09%-8.53%-4.17%-18.61%-2.91%-7.11%-3.07%-16.90%-0.48%-3.09%-1.72%-0.51%0.01%3.81%4.96%4.99%4.87%-5.16%0.68%0.64%1.52%2.64%-1.58%1.92%-2.51%1.57%1.74%2.04%-14.28%-1.89%0.90%4.39%34.84%28.23%34.13%-22.19%-12.88%-11.42%-13.74%-3.77%-4.52%-2.66%0.63%-4.00%-2.61%-1.16%0.52%-0.32%4.29%1.52%-1.33%-0.62%1.22%-2.08%0.25%1.21%净息差）净利差）2.00%1.88%3.60%1.72%1.96%1.99%1.87%3.56%1.69%1.96%1.98%1.86%3.50%1.64%1.94%1.83%1.91%1.82%1.88%1.87%1.87%1.83%1.77%2.84%1.07%1.79%1.72%1.79%1.79%1.77%1.78%（（净息差）净利差）））3.21%1.39%3.14%1.35%3.08%3.04%1.26%1.31%1.83%1.82%1.84%1.75%1.82%1.74%1.85%1.93% 1.84% 1.74%1.83%1.73%1.93%1.93%1.80%1.82%1.84%1.81%1.81%1.82%1.74%1.71%1.73%1.77%1.72%）1.33%15.44%1.34%15.38%1.29%1.22%1.22%1.23%1.20%1.15%13.46%14.49%14.13%13.83%13.96%13.44%累计分红率（测算）杠杆率风险加权资产增速ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)35.32%35.00%8.22%35.34%7.88%8.27%8.46%8.35%8.48%8.00%7.84%6.50%2.76%4.20%4.11%9.45%14.78%9.50%11.36%10.03%9.99%9.37%9.14%8.94%9.03%8.69%8.70%成本收入比存贷比29.74%29.58%31.89%28.64%30.11%29.85%31.98%28.47%77.89%77.40%75.72%76.46%74.84%74.27%73.13%74.33%拨备覆盖率434.42%4.08%432.15%4.06%411.98% 410.03% 410.93%405.93%391.79%3.68%387.76%3.63%拨贷比3.92%3.84%3.83%3.84%不良贷款率0.94%0.94%0.95%0.94%0.93%0.94%0.94%0.94%关注贷款率逾期贷款率重组贷款率（1（）2（）1.24%1.30%1.29%1.36%1.43%1.43%1.43%1.48%1.42%1.33%0.36%1.38%1.36%1.34%1.25%1.29%0.21%0.37%0.39%1.02%1.02%1.05%1.00%0.98%0.96%1.03%1.08%1.04%0.70%0.81%0.49%0.88%0.95%0.78%0.96%0.85%0.70%0.68%0.68%0.60%0.66%0.61%0.66%核心一级资本充足率流动性覆盖率净稳定性资金比例股东数（户）13.86%14.73%14.86%14.86%14.00%13.93%14.16%14.13%171.71%170.64%173.85%165.68%209.22%161.58%220.30%142.02%177.89%132.85%132.69%133.15%133.78%136.71%135.98%141.45%537,564494,536431,886407,926383,571471,874453,281591,391AC兑现/营收OCI兑现/营收AC兑现/净利润OCI兑现/净利润超额拨备/归母净利润(TTM)超额拨备/归母净资产2.07%1.20%0.72%0.48%3.23%2.16%4.14%2.75%4.75%2.70%1.61%1.06%7.41%4.88%9.34%6.13%100.79%13.22%96.63%12.23%89.93%10.88%86.15%10.20%82.85%82.28%74.61%8.80%71.24%8.37%9.55% 9.67% 表1：关键财务指标概览（单位：百万元），国联民生证券研究所累计业绩同比增速2024H12024Q1-3累计业绩同比增速2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1营业收入同比增速-3.09%-2.91%-0.48%-3.09%-1.72%-0.51%0.01%3.81%核心营收同比增速-8.53%-7.11%-5.16%0.68%0.64%1.52%2.64%4.96%净利息收入同比增速-4.17%-3.07%-1.58%1.92%1.57%1.74%2.04%4.99%非息收入同比增速-1.39%-2.63%1.41%-10.64%-6.73%-4.23%-3.38%1.77%净手续费收入同比增速-18.61%-16.90%-14.28%-2.51%-1.89%0.90%4.39%4.87%其他非息收入同比增速34.84%28.23%34.13%-22.19%-12.88%-11.42%-13.74%-3.77%营业支出同比增速-4.91%-5.21%-2.46%-4.23%-2.72%-1.97%-0.12%7.06%拨备前利润同比增速-4.52%-2.66%0.63%-4.00%-2.61%-1.16%-0.32%4.29%利润总额同比增速-1.37%-0.82%1.15%-2.09%-0.82%0.76%0.19%0.98%净利润同比增速-1.38%-0.81%1.05%-2.42%0.03%0.44%1.05%1.43%归母净利润同比增速-1.33%-0.62%1.22%-2.08%0.25%0.52%1.21%1.52%，国联民生证券研究所单季度业绩同比增速2024Q22024Q3单季度业绩同比增速2024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1营业收入同比增速-1.48%-2.51%7.53%-3.09%-0.36%2.11%1.57%3.81%核心营收同比增速-6.65%-4.10%1.31%0.68%0.60%3.32%6.02%4.96%净利息收入同比增速-2.12%-0.83%3.05%1.92%1.22%2.10%2.91%4.99%非息收入同比增速-0.46%-5.66%16.40%-10.64%-2.79%2.15%-0.78%1.77%净手续费收入同比增速-17.66%-12.85%-4.03%-2.51%-1.20%7.06%16.25%4.87%其他非息收入同比增速30.51%11.03%53.60%-22.19%-4.59%-6.78%-20.15%-3.77%营业支出同比增速-4.08%-5.92%6.75%-4.23%-1.24%-0.20%5.38%7.06%拨备前利润同比增速-2.84%1.64%14.03%-4.00%-1.16%1.96%2.61%4.29%利润总额同比增速1.02%0.30%7.59%-2.09%0.47%3.94%-1.51%0.98%净利润同比增速-0.74%0.33%7.52%-2.42%2.59%1.22%3.01%1.43%归母净利润同比增速-0.67%0.79%7.63%-2.08%2.67%1.04%3.41%1.52%，国联民生证券研究所图1：累计营收、PPOP、归母净利润、总资产同比增速 营业收入同比增速 拨备前利润同比增速 归母净利润同比增速 总资产增速 核心营收同比增速25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%，国联民生证券研究所图2：单季度营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速 营业收入同比增速 拨备前利润同比增速 归母净利润同比增速 核心营收同比增速40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%，国联民生证券研究所图3：累计同比业绩拆分（2026Q1） 7.4%1.4%7.4%1.4%1.5%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%生 净 净息 息 手资 差 续产 费规 收模 入

其 税 成 拨他 金 本 备收 及 收 计支 附 入 加 比

有 净 少 归效 利 数 母税 润 股 净率 东 利净 利润，国联民生证券研究所图4：累计同比业绩拆分（2025A） 9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%

8.5%1.0%1.2%1.0%1.2%息 息资 差产规模

净 其 税 成 拨 有 净 少 手 他 金 本 备 效 利 数 续 收 及 收 计 税 润 股 费 支 附 入 提 率 东 收 加 比 净 润入 利润，国联民生证券研究所累计ROE拆分2024H12024Q1-3累计ROE拆分2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1营业收入3.06%2.97%2.91%2.71%2.74%2.70%2.68%2.62%利息收入3.33%3.31%3.23%2.89%2.85%2.84%2.79%2.59%利息支出1.48%1.46%1.41%1.17%1.14%1.12%1.08%0.92%净利息收入1.85%1.85%1.82%1.72%1.71%1.72%1.71%1.68%净手续费收入0.68%0.65%0.62%0.64%0.61%0.60%0.60%0.62%核心营收2.53%2.50%2.44%2.36%2.32%2.33%2.31%2.30%其他非息收入0.53%0.47%0.47%0.36%0.42%0.38%0.37%0.32%营业支出1.47%1.39%1.37%1.28%1.31%1.25%1.26%1.27%税金及附加0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%业务及管理费0.91%0.88%0.93%0.78%0.83%0.81%0.86%0.75%减值损失0.48%0.43%0.35%0.42%0.40%0.36%0.32%0.45%营业利润1.59%1.58%1.54%1.43%1.43%1.45%1.42%1.35%营业外净收入0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%利润总额1.59%1.58%1.54%1.43%1.43%1.45%1.42%1.35%所得税0.25%0.24%0.25%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.20%年化ROA1.33% 1.34%1.29%1.22%1.22%1.23%1.20%1.15%杠杆率11.5711.4711.2311.6211.3811.3311.2211.74年化ROE15.44%15.38%14.49%14.13%13.83%13.96%13.44%13.46%，国联民生证券研究所单季度ROE拆分2024Q22024Q3单季度ROE拆分2024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1营业收入3.06%2.81%2.93%2.71%2.78%2.63%2.73%2.62%利息收入3.32%3.30%3.20%2.89%2.84%2.82%2.76%2.59%利息支出1.47%1.44%1.34%1.17%1.12%1.08%1.00%0.92%净利息收入1.86%1.86%1.86%1.72%1.71%1.74%1.76%1.68%净手续费收入0.64%0.61%0.57%0.64%0.58%0.60%0.60%0.62%核心营收2.50%2.48%2.43%2.36%2.29%2.34%2.37%2.30%其他非息收入0.56%0.34%0.50%0.36%0.49%0.29%0.36%0.32%营业支出1.49%1.24%1.38%1.28%1.34%1.13%1.33%1.27%税金及附加0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.02%0.02%0.03%0.02%业务及管理费0.95%0.82%1.13%0.78%0.88%0.77%1.04%0.75%减值损失0.45%0.33%0.15%0.42%0.38%0.28%0.20%0.45%营业利润1.57%1.57%1.55%1.43%1.44%1.49%1.40%1.35%营业外净收入0.00%0.00%-0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%利润总额1.57%1.57%1.54%1.43%1.44%1.49%1.39%1.35%所得税0.27%0.20%0.31%0.22%0.22%0.23%0.23%0.20%年化ROA1.31%1.36%1.23%1.22%1.22%1.26%1.16%1.15%杠杆率11.5711.4711.2311.6211.3811.3311.2211.74年化ROE15.13%15.64%13.77%14.13%13.90%14.31%13.02%13.46%，国联民生证券研究所手续费收入增速2024H12024Q1-3手续费收入增速2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1手续费收入-17.11%-15.30%-12.70%-2.09%-1.61%1.00%3.98%5.97%代理业务-32.51%-27.63%-22.70%10.45%11.89%18.76%21.39%25.42%理财业务托管业务-6.27%-7.61%-6.90%-10.32%-3.38%0.80%10.61%7.55%支付结算业务0.74%-0.92%0.08%-6.68%-3.27%-4.55%-0.26%7.34%咨询顾问业务担保承诺业务-19.87%-15.57%-6.95%-6.12%银行卡业务-14.10%-12.78%-14.16%-7.83%-16.37%-17.07%-18.60%-12.25%交易业务其他-16.41%-16.07%-8.53%-1.34%2.04%-0.46%3.98%-14.82%手续费支出-0.54%1.44%2.52%2.01%0.97%1.92%0.68%16.07%零售AUM同比增速10.62%9.67%12.05%12.35%12.86%15.70%14.44%14.69%，国联民生证券研究所累计占比（/营收）2024H12024Q1-3累计占比（/营收）2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1净手续费及佣金收入22.16%22.04%21.36%23.52%22.12%22.35%22.30%23.76%净其他非息收入17.44%15.71%16.04%13.20%15.46%13.99%13.83%12.24%投资收益11.27%9.76%8.85%14.03%12.88%12.03%10.91%4.58%公允价值变动损益1.32%1.23%1.80%-6.34%-2.84%-3.51%-2.42%2.33%汇兑净损益1.13%0.78%1.19%1.34%0.85%1.05%0.96%1.30%其他净收益3.72%3.95%4.19%4.17%4.56%4.42%4.38%4.02%其他综合收益余额15.88%12.41%12.82%31.25%21.75%10.41%7.47%28.47%AC兑现2.07%1.20%0.72%0.48%OCI兑现3.23%2.16%4.14%2.75%单季度占比（/营收）2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1净手续费及佣金收入10.48%6.88%4.86%23.52%10.53%7.40%5.65%23.76%净其他非息收入9.23%3.78%4.27%13.20%8.96%3.54%3.41%12.24%投资收益5.78%2.04%1.55%14.03%5.97%3.32%1.95%4.58%公允价值变动损益1.08%0.32%0.88%-6.34%0.29%-1.59%0.20%2.33%汇兑净损益0.51%0.01%0.61%1.34%0.19%0.47%0.17%1.30%其他净收益1.86%1.40%1.23%4.17%2.51%1.33%1.09%4.02%其他综合收益3.64%1.54%3.52%-20.40%6.35%-4.29%-0.28%-0.55%累计同比增速2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1净手续费及佣金收入-18.6%-16.9%-14.3%-2.5%-1.9%0.9%4.4%4.9%净其他非息收入34.8%28.2%34.1%-22.2%-12.9%-11.4%-13.7%-3.8%投资净收益57.2%41.7%34.7%23.7%12.3%22.7%23.3%-66.1%公允价值变动损益26.0%132.0%229.6%-1354.4%-310.8%-384.8%-234.1%138.2%汇兑损益-21.4%-39.8%-2.6%5.3%-25.6%33.4%-19.8%0.8%其他净收益13.4%11.6%15.9%8.4%20.5%11.5%4.6%0.2%其他综合收益余额增速75.5%148.5%159.3%23.6%34.6%-16.5%-41.7%-5.4%单季度同比增速2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1净手续费及佣金收入-17.7%-12.9%-4.0%-2.5%-1.2%7.1%16.3%4.9%净其他非息收入30.5%11.0%53.6%-22.2%-4.6%-6.8%-20.1%-3.8%投资净收益71.4%3.1%9.5%23.7%1.5%61.9%26.2%-66.1%公允价值变动损益-2.3%270.1%485.5%-1354.4%-73.9%-593.0%-77.7%138.2%汇兑损益-47.9%-96.4%142.1%5.3%-62.6%3996.6%-71.2%0.8%其他净收益15.2%8.5%27.6%8.4%32.8%-5.1%-11.8%0.2%单季度其他综合收益增速27.5%228.7%193.1%-480.0%71.5%-376.8%-108.0%97.2%，国联民生证券研究所图5：净息差和净利差 2.60%2.40%2.20%2.00%1.80%1.60%1.40%1.20%1.00%

，国联民生证券研究所

净息差（披露值） 净利差（披露值）

1.83%1.77%累计（露值） 2024H1累计（露值） 2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1净息差 2.00%1.99%1.98%1.91%1.88%1.87%1.87%1.83%净利差 1.88%1.87%1.86%1.82%1.79%1.77%1.78%1.77%生息资收益率 3.60%3.56%3.50%3.21%3.14%3.08%3.04%2.84%计息负成本率 1.72%1.69%1.64%1.39%1.35%1.31%1.26%1.07%单季度测算） 2024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1净息差 1.93%1.93%1.93%1.83%1.80%1.82%1.84%1.79%净利差 1.81%1.81%1.82%1.74%1.71%1.73%1.77%1.72%生息资收益率 3.45%3.42%3.31%3.08%2.98%2.94%2.89%2.77%计息负成本率 1.64%1.60%1.49%1.34%1.27%1.21%1.12%1.05%生息资平均益率 2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1发放贷款 4.02%3.98%3.91%3.53%3.45%3.38%3.34%3.13%投资类产 3.14%3.11%3.08%2.93%2.89%2.85%2.82%2.68%存放央行 1.68%1.69%1.67%1.66%1.67%1.65%1.64%1.61%同业资产 2.99%2.87%2.80%2.53%2.38%2.31%2.24%1.95%计息负平均息率 2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1存款 1.60%1.58%1.54%1.29%1.26%1.22%1.17%0.99%向央行款 2.18%2.17%2.13%1.82%1.81%1.80%1.79%1.57%同业负债 2.21%2.15%2.07%1.76%1.67%1.61%1.58%1.42%发行债券 3.02%3.03%3.03%3.08%3.14%3.17%3.19%3.07%，国联民生证券研究所分类型贷款收益率2024H12024Q1-3分类型贷款收益率2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1公司类贷款收益率3.49%3.40%2.93%2.81%个人贷款收益率4.71%4.58%4.08%3.94%票据贴现收益率1.53%1.43%1.27%1.23%分类型存款成本率2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1对公存款付息率1.68%1.61%1.33%1.23%对公活期付息率0.90%0.83%0.62%0.52%对公定期付息率2.55%2.45%2.08%1.95%个人存款付息率1.51%1.44%1.18%1.10%个人活期付息率0.30%0.22%0.08%0.07%个人定期付息率2.71%2.58%2.18%2.05%，国联民生证券研究所余额结构（分母为总资产）2024H12024Q1-3余额结构（分母为总资产）2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1生息资产93.98%94.65%93.78%93.64%93.82%93.68%93.82%93.19%贷款58.30%57.99%56.68%56.87%56.23%56.44%55.53%55.35%投资类资产28.77%28.73%30.23%30.71%31.22%32.09%31.64%32.11%FVTPL5.00%4.31%5.08%5.01%5.22%5.18%4.96%5.47%AC15.33%15.84%15.98%15.89%15.85%16.39%16.26%15.92%FVOCI8.44%8.59%9.17%9.82%10.14%10.52%10.42%10.72%存放央行5.18%5.40%4.72%4.60%4.37%4.31%4.40%4.33%同业资产6.92%7.01%7.41%6.65%7.41%6.21%7.39%7.05%同比增速2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1总资产7.77%9.25%10.19%8.76%9.35%8.49%7.56%7.62%总生息资产7.19%9.61%9.58%7.67%9.16%7.38%7.60%7.11%贷款6.17%4.70%5.83%4.54%5.47%5.59%5.37%4.76%投资类资产11.16%8.61%15.00%20.23%18.64%21.17%12.58%12.51%FVTPL18.76%2.58%17.27%19.70%14.09%30.55%4.99%17.39%AC7.39%8.89%11.01%14.42%13.11%12.27%9.44%7.89%FVOCI14.09%11.37%21.30%31.32%31.39%32.87%22.25%17.49%存放央行1.47%4.92%-15.93%-29.18%-7.73%-13.37%0.17%1.33%同业资产12.51%88.70%60.60%36.43%17.19%-3.85%7.33%14.06%单季增量2024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1总生息资产-18,409153,100365,582335,852142,209-29,273417,130304,505贷款-68,02310947129,564237,164-8,86319,669121,773206,315投资类资产129,41218,634324,132175,338102,749106,72977,265194,513FVTPL54,544-77,143114,93111,01232,789-5,326-7,69789,424AC34,28072,30395,40348,88615,89166,40952,18522,510FVOCI40,58823,474113,798115,44054,06945,64632,77782,579存放央行-213,82029,951-55,4061,978-22,856-7,88929,7178,667同业资产189,60816,04783,757-66,806104,677-153,071181,231-15,612，国联民生证券研究所；注：FVTPL为以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金融资产；AC为以摊余成本计量的金融资产或者债权投资；FVOCI。余额结构（分母为总资产）2024H12024Q1-3余额结构（分母为总资产）2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1负债总额90.35%90.05%89.85%89.99%89.75%89.92%90.20%90.43%计息负债87.51%87.54%87.46%87.51%86.63%87.46%87.50%86.90%存款75.73%75.71%75.67%75.07%75.13%76.00%75.93%74.47%向央行借款1.95%2.25%1.56%1.90%1.36%0.64%0.85%0.87%同业负债7.45%7.55%8.39%9.21%8.85%9.65%9.62%10.50%发行债券2.39%2.03%1.83%1.33%1.29%1.18%1.10%1.06%同比增速2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1负债总额7.22%8.80%9.81%8.48%8.63%8.33%7.98%8.14%总计息负债7.49%8.93%9.72%8.54%8.25%8.39%7.62%6.86%存款8.23%9.51%11.59%10.22%8.49%8.90%7.93%6.76%向央行借款42.49%17.01%-49.84%-6.31%-23.56%-68.96%-41.52%-50.79%同业负债-4.25%4.30%14.44%15.12%29.79%38.57%23.39%22.70%发行债券3.95%-1.64%26.25%-46.45%-40.89%-36.97%-35.63%-14.60%单季增量2024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1总计息负债27,55972814425,105337,656-25893,944378,013280,856存款231,22258,482371,723210,901103,29699,425315,607117,565向央行借款-28,87437,114-72,57648,280-65,914-90,81029,5876,159同业负债-139,55617,331139,251134,553-34,12799,76438,227158,135发行债券-35,233-40,113-13,293-56,078-3,513-14,435-5,408-1,003，国联民生证券研究所余额结构2024H12024Q1-3余额结构2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1公司存款55.43%55.38%55.07%54.70%54.37%54.20%53.81%53.47%公司定期24.83%24.92%25.47%27.65%25.99%公司活期30.60%30.15%28.90%26.55%27.82%个人存款43.41%43.59%43.86%44.38%44.72%44.86%45.30%45.71%个人定期22.65%22.32%23.05%23.27%22.78%个人活期20.76%21.54%21.67%21.59%22.52%余额增速2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1存款总额8.23%9.51%11.59%10.22%8.49%8.90%7.93%6.76%公司存款3.02%5.88%8.65%6.42%6.59%5.46%4.36%公司定期13.44%13.66%11.32%12.57%公司活期-4.12%4.83%2.45%-0.41%个人存款14.79%14.28%15.40%11.76%12.06%11.48%9.95%个人定期40.64%23.27%10.40%10.15%个人活期-4.38%8.23%13.25%12.86%，国联民生证券研究所余额结构2024H12024Q1-3余额结构2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1个人贷款52.48%52.88%52.91%51.35%51.68%51.80%51.26%49.34%个人住房贷款20.38%20.29%20.58%19.90%20.21%19.88%19.64%18.67%个人消费贷款5.60%5.79%5.75%5.90%5.85%5.90%5.88%5.88%经营性贷款11.97%12.03%11.98%11.65%11.85%12.03%12.07%11.78%信用卡应收账款13.63%13.71%13.76%12.86%12.99%13.00%12.94%12.06%票据贴现6.44%6.08%5.52%5.85%4.90%4.05%4.44%4.57%公司贷款41.08%41.04%41.57%42.80%43.42%44.15%44.31%46.09%制造业9.03%9.05%9.72%9.61%10.15%9.81%10.38%10.63%批发和零售业3.09%3.05%3.31%3.36%3.52%3.60%3.85%4.15%传统基建13.00%10.86%13.40%11.42%13.90%12.01%13.97%11.94%租赁和商务服务业2.97%2.55%2.82%2.76%3.20%3.13%3.42%3.44%房地产业5.04%4.35%4.62%4.03%4.38%3.93%4.32%3.80%建筑业2.00%1.89%1.57%1.79%1.79%1.70%1.52%1.70%住宿和餐饮业采矿业0.75%0.73%0.75%0.78%0.84%0.92%0.95%1.12%信息传输、软件和信息技术服务1.84%1.61%1.96%2.02%2.04%2.14%2.46%2.25%农、林、牧、渔业金融业2.00%1.64%2.04%1.80%1.97%1.50%2.01%1.64%卫生和社会工作科学研究和技术服务业余额增速2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1贷款总额6.17%4.70%5.83%4.54%5.47%5.59%5.37%4.76%个人贷款6.36%5.47%6.01%4.52%3.87%3.44%2.07%0.67%个人住房贷款-0.23%0.89%2.31%4.09%4.58%3.46%0.55%-1.72%个人消费贷款31.28%31.38%18.54%10.20%7.57%7.70%4.54%经营性贷款13.57%10.63%9.87%4.77%4.49%5.53%6.09%5.89%信用卡应收账款1.50%0.78%1.28%0.00%0.55%0.07%-0.92%-1.77%票据贴现-3.17%-21.44%-19.35%-20.34%-19.80%-29.59%-15.22%-18.22%公司贷款7.57%9.05%10.15%9.23%11.47%13.57%12.29%12.80%制造业10.85%17.27%16.05%13.88%18.43%14.56%12.51%15.84%批发和零售业12.79%16.60%15.16%13.25%19.88%24.58%22.74%29.50%传统基建6.91%11.45%11.39%12.63%12.81%16.72%9.81%9.57%租赁和商务服务业7.07%3.28%0.95%13.10%13.77%29.82%27.49%30.64%房地产业-4.45%-1.79%-2.48%-7.60%-8.35%-4.61%-1.54%-1.25%建筑业14.34%12.35%-2.91%-5.19%-5.60%-5.37%2.45%-0.52%住宿和餐饮业采矿业11.38%20.73%9.93%18.39%18.17%32.64%32.81%50.75%信息传输、软件和信息技术服务24.72%11.49%30.18%31.37%17.04%40.23%31.99%16.40%农、林、牧、渔业金融业0.18%13.76%4.94%19.21%3.86%-3.44%4.17%-4.93%卫生和社会工作科学研究和技术服务业，国联民生证券研究所资产质量2024H12024Q1-3资产质量2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1不良贷款率0.94%0.94%0.95%0.94%0.93%0.94%0.94%0.94%拨备覆盖率434.42%432.15%411.98%410.03%410.93%405.93%391.79%387.76%拨贷比4.08%4.06%3.92%3.84%3.83%3.84%3.68%3.63%贷款拨备余额275,540274,662270,300273,666272,734273,698267,224270,881非信贷拨备余额55,99656,82255,12052,460不良贷款余额63,42763,55765,61066,74366,37067,42568,20669,858关注类贷款余额83,33788,13189,08097,195101,467102,049103,860110,233逾期贷款余额95,57791,87598,32597,08495,62690,64696,060逾期90天以上贷款余额49,744-41,50849,64752,14352,00854,81752,09556,337重组贷款余额14,16624,82626,12328,307关注贷款率1.24%1.30%1.29%1.36%1.43%1.43%1.43%1.48%关注率+不良率2.18%2.24%2.24%2.30%2.36%2.37%2.37%2.42%逾期贷款率1.42%1.33%1.38%1.36%1.34%1.25%1.29%逾期90天以上/不良78.43%-65.31%75.67%78.13%78.36%81.30%76.38%80.65%逾期1年以上/损失94.76%95.18%85.61%78.81%逾期/不良150.69%140.03%147.32%146.28%141.83%132.90%137.51%重组贷款率0.21%0.36%0.37%0.39%（重组+逾期）/贷款1.63%1.69%1.73%1.64%（重组+逾期）/不良173.02%177.87%147.32%185.64%141.83%174.40%137.51%不良净新生成率（披露值）1.02%1.02%1.05%1.00%0.98%0.96%1.03%1.08%不良生成率1（披露核转）0.81%0.49%0.88%0.95%0.78%0.96%0.85%1.04%不良生成率2（测算核转）0.70%0.68%0.68%0.60%0.66%0.61%0.66%0.70%不良回收率0.11%-0.19%0.20%0.35%0.12%0.35%0.20%0.34%信用成本（测算值）0.81%0.73%0.61%0.73%0.70%0.63%0.56%0.81%不良核销转出率1（披露核转）79.8%47.6%86.3%92.7%79.4%96.8%85.5%100.8%不良核销转出率2（测算核转）67.8%67.5%64.9%56.0%66.8%60.3%64.9%64.9%非信贷拨备/非信贷资产1.16%1.08%0.99%0.90%金融投资-拨备/阶段三165.9%166.8%171.0%169.1%超额拨备/归母净利润(TTM)100.8%96.6%89.9%86.1%82.8%82.3%74.6%71.2%超额拨备/归母净资产13.22%12.23%10.88%10.20%9.55%9.67%8.80%8.37%总拨备/总资产2.86%2.69%2.59%2.45%，国联民生证券研究所信用减值损失2024H12024Q1-3信用减值损失2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1总资产26,93636,35740,81912,83724,63433,36039,77514,848贷款25,43336,27043,60813,63023,34135,10542,58214,858金融投资-1,058-2,400-415-2,889其他2,561-3891,70882信用减值损失/资产期初余额2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1总资产0.24%0.33%0.37%0.11%0.20%0.27%0.33%0.11%贷款0.39%0.56%0.67%0.20%0.34%0.51%0.62%0.20%金融投资-0.03%-0.08%-0.01%-0.08%其他0.19%-0.03%0.11%0.01%拨备余额2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1总资产331,535327,123327,853319,682贷款275,539274,662270,301273,666272,733273,698267,222270,881金融投资45,26044,07943,37141,397其他10,73612,74311,74911,063拨备余额/资产余额2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1总资产2.86%2.69%2.59%2.45%贷款4.08%4.06%3.92%3.84%3.83%3.84%3.68%3.63%金融投资1.36%1.20%1.10%1.00%其他0.72%0.80%0.74%0.66%，国联民生证券研究所不良贷款额2024H12024Q1-3不良贷款额2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1不良贷款63,42763,55765,61066,74366,37067,42568,20669,858个人贷款32,04232,93335,13536,12537,71334,98539,58441,329个人住房贷款5,5216,2556,8407,3966,6116,7617,2318,020个人消费贷款3,9303,8934,1164,7695,8654,1164,3495,126经营性贷款5,0625,2656,5386,9298,0506,53810,66310,129信用卡应收账款16,39416,44816,56016,03816,15516,55716,37317,148票据贴现11109对公贷款31,38526,36830,47526,41928,64823,40228,62224,364制造业2,9202,8413,2503,6263,1883,1273,2603,426批发和零售业1,4141,3982,4362,4742,5002,5171,8191,881交通运输、仓储和邮政业1,4001,2741,1911,0801,1409141,063942电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业417511405337563306851157水利、环境和公共设施管理业3721211524719786119308租赁和商务服务业1,514858788734214171333200房地产业17,39614,13115,72813,76814,77411,91014,99312,584建筑业8991,4421,3711,3741,3991,3881,3941,332住宿和餐饮业采矿业56156155052495949496信息传输、软件和信息技术服务786436542384429432447535农、林、牧、渔业金融业381873698934989695730卫生和社会工作科学研究和技术服务业不良率2024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1总贷款0.94%0.94%0.95%0.94%0.93%0.94%0.94%0.94%个人贷款0.90%0.94%0.96%1.01%1.03%1.05%1.06%1.14%个人住房贷款0.40%0.46%0.48%0.52%0.46%0.45%0.51%0.58%个人消费贷款1.04%0.99%1.04%1.14%1.41%1.17%1.02%1.17%经营性贷款0.63%0.65%0.79%0.83%0.95%1.11%1.22%1.15%信用卡应收账款1.78%1.77%1.75%1.75%1.75%1.74%1.74%1.90%票据贴现0.0000270.00%0.00%对公贷款1.13%1.05%1.06%0.95%0.93%0.82%0.89%0.78%制造业0.48%0.46%0.49%0.48%0.44%0.45%0.43%0.43%批发和零售业0.68%0.68%1.07%1.03%1.00%0.98%0.65%0.61%交通运输、仓储和邮政业0.27%0.29%0.22%0.23%0.20%0.18%0.19%0.18%电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业0.14%0.20%0.12%0.11%0.15%0.09%0.21%0.05%水利、环境和公共设施管理业0.88%0.36%0.40%0.14%0.52%0.26%0.33%0.83%租赁和商务服务业0.76%0.50%0.41%0.37%0.09%0.08%0.13%0.08%房地产业5.12%4.80%4.94%4.79%4.74%4.24%4.78%4.44%建筑业0.67%1.13%1.27%1.08%1.10%1.15%1.26%1.05%住宿和餐饮业采矿业1.11%1.13%1.06%0.94%0.16%0.14%0.14%0.11%信息传输、软件和信息技术服务0.63%0.40%0.40%0.27%0.30%0.28%0.25%0.32%农、林、牧、渔业金融业0.28%0.08%0.26%0.07%0.25%0.08%0.48%0.60%卫生和社会工作科学研究和技术服务业，国联民生证券研究所图6：资本充足率情况 核心一级资本充足率 一级资本充足率 资本充足率20.00%18.00%16.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%，国联民生证券研究所图7：年化ROE、规模扩张和资本内生 风险加权资产增速 ROE(TTM)*(1-分红率) ROE(TTM) 总资产增速 贷款同比增速18.00%16.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%，国联民生证券研究所图8：股东数和户均持股数量（万户，万股） 70.0160.0150.0140.0130.0120.0110.01

股东数（万户） 户均持股数量（流通股万股右轴）

59.1445.3359.1445.335.004.003.002.001.000.01 -，国联民生证券研究所股东名称最新排名股东性质股东名称最新排名股东性质2025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1香港中央结算(代理人)有限公司1境外法人18.06%18.06%18.06%18.06%招商局轮船有限公司2国有法人13.04%13.04%13.04%13.04%中国远洋运输有限公司3国有法人6.24%6.24%6.24%6.24%深圳市晏清投资发展有限公司4国有法人4.99%4.99%4.99%4.99%香港中央结算有限公司5境外法人5.41%4.43%4.84%4.75%招商局金融控股有限公司6国有法人4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%和谐健康保险股份有限公司-传统-普通保险产品7其他4.48%4.48%4.48%4.48%深圳市楚源投资发展有限公司8国有法人3.74%3.74%3.74%3.74%中远海运(广州)有限公司9国有法人2.76%2.76%2.76%2.76%上海汽车集团股份有限公司10国有法人1.23%，国联民生证券研究所公司财务报表数据预测汇总2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E2025A2026E2027E2028E价值评估（倍） 利润表（百万元） P/E6.96.76.25.7净利息收入215,593225,529242,912257,983P/B0.910.830.760.70利息收入351,351360,759381,002404,991P/PPOP 4.57 4.34 4.02 3.77利息支出135,758135,230138,090147,008每股指标（元/股） 净手续费收入75,25881,27987,78194,803EPS5.705.886.416.95净其他非息收入46,68149,01551,46654,039BVPS43.4347.4651.9856.85营业收入337,532355,823