摩根士丹利-人工智能：为下一个十倍科技周期融资-资本是约束吗？-AI：Financing the Next 10x Tech Cycle-Is Capital the Constraint-20260529

MorganstanleyRESEARCH

May29,202604:01AMGMT

FinancialsandThematics|NorthAmerica

AI:FinancingtheNext10xTechCycle—IsCapitalthe

Constraint?

AIinfrastructureisevolvingfromhyperscaler-fundedcapexintoamulti-assetfinancingecosystem.WebelievetheconstraintisnotcapitalavailabilitybuthowmarketsintermediateAI

investmentacrossequity,credit,securitization&privatecapital—withpower&computetherealbottlenecks.

KeyTakeaways

AIiscreatinganunprecedentedinfrastructureinvestmentcycle,withearlyspendingalreadytracking~10xabovepriorearlycloudcyclespend.

~$256TofglobalcapitalpoolsappearsufficienttofinancetheAIbuild-out,followingthe~$1Tmobile/cloudcapexera.

Thekeychallengeisstructuringassetswithappropriatereturn,duration,collateral,liquidity,andrisk-sharingcharacteristics.

Publicdebtandequitymarketshavesignificantroomtoabsorbissuance,withpotentialcapacityupwardsof$17Tand$2.6T,respectivelyvs$13T/$1Tin2025.

Altswellplacedtobenefitasprivatemarketsexpand:OWAPO,BN,BX,KKR,BLK.Bankstobenefitfromrobustcapmarkets:BAC,C,GS,JPM,WFC.

Exhibit1:Deepanddiversecapitalpoolstofinanceestimated~$10TAIbuild-outthiscycle

Source:Source:Dealogic,Morningstar,Cobalt,companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.

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MoRGANSTANLEy&Co.LLC

MichaelJ.Cyprys,CFA,CPA

EquityAnalyst

Michael.Cyprys@

+1212761-7619

MananGosalia

EquityAnalyst

Manan.Gosalia@

StephenCByrd

EquityAnalyst

+1212761-4092

Stephen.Byrd@

VishwanathTirupatturStrategist

+1212761-3865

Vishwanath.Tirupattur@

BarronThomas

ResearchAssociate

+1212761-1043

Barron.Thomas@

ConnellJSchmitz

ResearchAssociate

+1212761-2624

Connell.Schmitz@

AndrewBPauker

+1212761-6252

EquityStrategist

Andrew.Pauker@

NicholasLentini,CFA

EquityStrategist

+1212761-1330

Nick.Lentini@

+1212761-5863

BRokERs,AssETMANAGERs&ExcHANGEs

NorthAmerica

IndustryViewIn-Line

LARGECApBANks

NorthAmerica

IndustryViewAttractive

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

2

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AI:TheNext10xComputeCycle

TheAIerarepresentsthenextmajorcomputecycle.Likepriorwavesoftechnology,weexpectittoscalecomputecapacitybyroughly10x,drivingastep-changeininfrastructureinvestment.Themobileinternetfollowedasimilarpath,expandingcomputeby~10xandsupportingroughly$1trillionofcloudandnetworkcapex,whilereshapingmarket

leadershipasnewplatformcompaniesemergedanddisruptedincumbents.

WebelieveAIcouldbelargerandlonger-lastingthanpriorcyclesbecauseitrequiresabroaderinfrastructurefootprintandisprogressingatafasterpace.lnvestmentspans

semiconductors,servers,networking,datacenters,power,cooling,andrelated

infrastructure.Atthesametime,modelcapabilities,inferencedemand,andenterprise

adoptioncontinuetogrowrapidly,creatinganeedforsustainedincrementalcapacity.

Acrossmodeldevelopment,usage,andspend,thetrajectorycontinuestosurprisetotheupside,underscoringthedifficultyofforecastingexponentialgrowthinrealtime.

Earlyspendingtrendsalreadypointtothescaleoftheopportunity.lnthefirstfour

yearsofthisbuild-out,aggregatecapexistrackingabove$1trillion,roughly10xhigher

thanearly-cyclecloudspending.Lookingahead,hyperscalercapexisexpectedtoexceed$1trillionannuallyby2027,withcomputecapacityincreasinglybecomingthekey

constrainttofurtherAlscaling.Thesedynamicssuggestwearestillintheearlystagesofacyclethatcouldbebothlargerandlonger-durationthanpriortechnologywaves.Astheinfrastructurebuild-outbroadens,fundingwilllikelyneedtoextendbeyond

hyperscalerbalancesheets,makingpublicandprivatecapitalmarketscriticalenablersofthenextphaseofAIdeployment.

KeyriskstoourconstructiveAIinfrastructureoutlookincludepowerandgrid

constraints,permittingdelays,supplychainbottlenecks,andrisingfinancingcosts,allofwhichcouldslowdeploymenttimelinesorincreasebuild-outcosts.Longerterm,risks

includeweaker-than-expectedenterpriseAlmonetization,moreefficientmodel

architecturesthatreducecomputeintensity,regulatoryorgeopoliticalheadwinds,andthepotentialforperiodsofoverbuildifinfrastructureinvestmentultimatelyoutpaces

sustainabledemandgrowth.Whileweviewtheserisksasmanageableintheneartermgivencontinuedupwardrevisionstohyperscalercapexplans,theycouldcontributetogreatervolatilityinAl-relatedinvestmentcyclesovertime.

Exhibit2:Everytechcycledelivers10xmorecompute

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit3:AIisfollowingthepathofpastcycles

Source:Eikon,MorganStanleyResearch.ForAMZN,2013-2016usechangeinAWSnetPP&EasproxyforAWSspendandin2023-2026,weestimateAWScapex.

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Exhibit4:Tokenusageisincreasingnon-linearly,asadvancingcapabilitiesanddemandinflectionpointstoalargercyclethanexpected

Source:OpenRouter,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit5:Capexrevisionsreflectupsidesurprisesandhighlightthechallengeofforecastingexponentialgrowth

Capex($B)

1,120

102

276

175

548

36

124

299

108

117

268

163

AMZN

160

28

32

31

64

2022A

788

51

190

145

190

212

Current2026E

1,288

117

344

206

374

248

486

32

112

90

104

148

May'252027E

430

27

100

81

91

130

May'252026E

CurrentMay'25Current

2027E2028E2028E

435

21

118

72

91

132

2025A

800

600

400

200

257

7

76

39

53

83

2024A

1400

1200

1000

163

9

41

28

32

53

2023A

GOOGLMETAMSFTORCL

5

0

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.MSFTdatacalendarized,ORCLpresentedonFYbasis.

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FinancingtheAlBuild-Out:CapitallsNottheConstraint

TheKeyChallengeIsHowFinancialMarketsEvolvetoIntermediateCapital

WebelievetheAIinfrastructurecyclerepresentsnotonlythenextcomputecycle,butalsothenextmajorcapitalmarketsevolution.Thescale,duration,andinfrastructure-likecharacteristicsofAIinvestmentincreasinglyrequirefinancingstructuresthatextendbeyondhyperscalerbalancesheetsandtraditionalcorporatecapexfunding.Inourview,thekeychallengeisnotwhethersufficientglobalcapitalexists,buthowfinancial

marketsevolvetointermediatethatcapitalacrosspublicequity,credit,securitizedproducts,bankcapital,privateinfrastructure,andalternativefinancingchannels.

Exhibit6:TheEmergingAIInfrastructureFinancingStack

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

TheAIbuild-outshouldbesupportedbyadiversesetofcapitalpoolsandfinancingchannels,including~$256trillionasset-ownercapital,potentially~$2.6trillionof

annualpublicequityissuancecapacity,potentially~$17trillionofannualdebtandloanmarketissuancecapacity,~$8trillionofmoneymarketliquidity,~$5trillionofprivatemarketsdrypowder,and~$2.5trillionofbankbalancesheetcapacity.

Importantly,eachcapitalpoolissuitedtodifferentpartsoftheAIinfrastructurestack,withinvestormandates,liquidityneeds,duration,collateral,andreturnrequirements

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shapingwherecapitalismostlikelytoflow.Thisisallwhilepowerandcomputecapacityremainthetruebottlenecks.

TheGlobalFinancialSystemHasSufficientCapital

Weseeconcernsaroundtheabilityofcapitalmarketstofinancea~$10trillionAI

build-outasoverdone.Weacknowledgethatthe$10trillionmagnitudeislargein

absoluteterms,butglobalcapitalpoolsaredeepanddiversifiedandthespendshouldunfoldoveramulti-yearbuild-outcycleratherthanallatonce.Weestimateglobal

retailandinstitutionalcapitalpoolsat~$256trillion,implyingthata$10trillionAI

investmentcyclewouldrepresent~4%ofidentifiedasset-ownercapital.Globalequitymarketcapitalizationprovidesanotherreferencepointat~$159trillion,withtheUS

aloneat~$76trillion.TheaggregatepoolofcapitalappearslargeenoughtosupporttheAIbuild-out,providedtheunderlyingeconomicsremainattractive,eventhoughnotallofthiscapitalisavailableforAI.

Importantly,theAIfinancingneedshouldnotrequiremeaningfulliquidationof

existingasset-ownerholdings,asfundingismorelikelytocomethroughgradual

portfolioreallocation,newissuance,maturingfixedincomeportfolios,privatecapital

deployment,andstructuredfinancingchannels.Inparticular,largeinstitutionalinvestorscontinuouslyreceiveprincipalrepaymentsandcouponcashflowsfromsizablebond

portfolios,creatingrecurringreinvestmentcapacitythatcanberedirectedtowardnewlyissuedAI-relateddebt,infrastructure,andprivatemarketopportunitiesovertime.Further,continuedstrongretaildemandforannuities—drivenbyagingdemographicsand

demandforincomeandguaranteedretirementsolutions—shouldcontinuetosupportinsurancecompanydemandforattractiveinvestment-gradefixedincomeandlong-

durationassets,includingasset-basedandstructuredsolutions.

Exhibit7:GlobalIndividualandInstitutionalCapitalPoolsof$256Trepresent~$4%oftheestimated$10TneededtofinanceAIbuild-out

AssetOwnerPools($T)

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

153

103

4

16

42

42

74

79

RetailCapitalInstitutionalCapital

USRetailInternationalRetailInsurancePensionsSovereignWealthFundsEndowments&Foundations

Source:IndividualWealthUSdatafromFRED.IndividualWealthInternationaldatafromOliverWyman.SoverignWealthFunddatefromGlobalSWF.PensiondatafromThinkingAheadInstitute.Endowment&FoundationdatafromPensions&Investments,FoundationMark,andHarvardKennedy.InsurancedatafromCapitalIQandInternationalAssociationofInsurnaceSupervisors(IAIS).MorganStanleyResearchNote:AlldataasofDec'24exceptforSoverignWealthDatathat'sasofMarch'26andInternationalFoundationdatathat'saMorganStanleyEstimateasofDecember'25.Individualwealthexcludesinsuranceandpensioncapital.

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Importantly,thesecapitalpoolsarenotinterchangeable,asportfolioconstructionandassetallocationmandatesshouldshapewhichpartsoftheAIbuild-outeachpoolis

bestpositionedtofinance.Insurancebalancesheetsarenaturallybettersuitedtolong-duration,income-orientedcreditandstructuredproducts,makingthemalogicalsourceofdemandforIGcredit,ABS/CMBS,privatecredit,andABFtiedtocontracteddatacentercashflows.Pensionfundsandsovereignwealthfundscantakeabroaderportfolio

approach,withallocationsacrosspublicequity,privateequity,infrastructure,real

assets,andprivatecredit,makingthemwellsuitedtoparticipateacrossbothcorporategrowthandlonger-durationAIinfrastructureprojects.

Financingactivityisincreasinglyconcentratingaroundarelativelysmallgroupof

hyperscalersandhighlyratedtechnologyissuers,whichovertimecouldcreate

portfolioconstructionandsingle-nameexposureconsiderationsforsomeassetowners.Thatsaid,institutionalcapitalpoolsremainsubstantial,including~$42trillionof

insuranceassets,~$42trillionofpensionassets,and~$16trillionofsovereignwealth

fundcapital.Further,concentrationconstraintsvarymeaningfullyacrossinstitutions,andlikelylessrelevantforsomeinvestors.Inourview,investorsalsohavetoolsavailabletohelpmitigateconcentrationriskifneeded,includingpurchasingsingle-nameor

basketprotectionthroughCDSandotherhedgingstructures.

Weacknowledgesomeinvestorsmayfaceconstraintsincreasingprivatemarket

allocationsneartermgivenmuteddistributionsandongoingDPIchallengesacross

portionsofprivatemarkets.However,weincreasinglyseeliquidityandportfolio

managementsolutionsemergingthroughtherapidexpansionofthesecondarymarket.

Secondarytransactionvolumeexceeded$200billionin2025forthefirsttime,up~40%Y/Y,drivenbybothLP-ledsalesandGP-ledcontinuationvehicles,andhascompoundedat~20%annuallysince2013.Lookingahead,thesecondariesmarketcontinuestobroadenbeyondtraditionalbuyoutstrategiesandappearswellpositionedtosupportLPandGPliquidityneeds,withover$200billionofavailabledrypowder.Webelievesecondary

liquiditysolutions,combinedwithanimprovingrealizationbackdropovertime,

shouldhelpreturnmeaningfulliquiditytoassetownersandsupportcontinuedcapitaldeploymentintoAIinfrastructureandrelatedprivatemarketopportunities.

Exhibit9:Pensionportfoliosaremorediverseacrossasset

classesvs.insurance

capital

Exhibit8:Insurancecapitalskewstowardfixedincome

USGov'tDebt,Alts3.2%

LifeInsuranceAssetAllocation

61%,

.

6.8%

v,

Int'lDebt,

Motg.Loans,

10.7%

Corp.Debt,46.1%

Other/STIn

12.6%

Structured

Notes,14.4%

3%

10%17%

24%

14%56%

UKAustraliaNetherlandsSwitzerland

Alts/OtherCash

USJapanCanada

EquitiesBonds

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1%

46%

23%

29%

3%

14%

55%

27%

52%25%

2%

17%

31%

50%

DefinedBenefit&DefinedContrinutionAllocations

4%

34%

30%

3%

23%

47%

27%

32%

Source:ThinkingAheadInstituteasofDecember2024,MorganStanleyResearch

Source:SNLdataasofSeptember2025,MorganStanleyResearch

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Exhibit10:SovereignWealthFundcapitalskewsthemosttowardalternativesanddirectinvestments...

SoverignWealthFundsAssetAllocation

DirectStrategic

Investments,9%

Equity,32%

Illiquid

Alternatives,23%

Fixed

Income,29%

Liquid

Alternatives,4%

Cash,3%

Source:InvescoGlobalSovereignAssetManagementStudyasofDecember2025,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit11:…andwithinalternatives,infrastructurehasbecomeanincreasinglycorepartofsovereignwealthfunds'portfolios

InfrastructureRealEstatePrivateEquity

20212022202320242025

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

SoverignWealthFundsIlliquidAlternativesAllocation

9.2%

8.3%

8.0%

7.4%7.5%7.4%

7.0%7.1%

4.9%

3.7%

7.7%

7.1%

7.6%

8.1%

7.3%

Source:InvescoGlobalSovereignAssetManagementStudyasofDecember2025,MorganStanleyResearch

AIFinancingIsBroadeningBeyondHyperscalerBalance

Sheets…withCreditMarketsEmergingasaCoreFinancingChannel

WeexpectthefinancingmixtobroadenastheAIinvestmentcyclematures.

Hyperscalerbalancesheetsandinternallygeneratedcashflowhavecarriedmuchoftheearlyfundingburden,butthesize,duration,andcomplexityofthebuild-outshould

increasinglypullinexternalcapitalacrossawidespectrumofcapitalpoolsacrossbothequityandfixedincome.OurFixedIncomecolleaguesreachasimilarconclusionlookingatdatacenters,forecasting~$3.2trillionofglobaldatacentercapexthrough2028,with~$1.75trillionfinancedthroughawidearrayofcreditproducts,including$700billion

fromprivatecreditand$650billionofinvestmentgradedebt.Onsecuritizedcredit

specifically,datacenterABS/CMBSgrossissuanceisexpectedtogrowquicklythrough2028;outstandingdatacentersecuritizedcreditiscurrently~$65billion,andforecasttogrowbynearly3xto~$200billion.

8

Exhibit12:Wesee$3.2Tofdatacentercapexspendthrough2028

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Importantlyourcreditstrategists,donotexpectafinancingbottleneck,citingsignificantcreditmarketcapacityandgrowingdemandforhigher-qualityprivatecreditmandates

thatarewellsuitedtodatacenterfinancing.Theyrecentlyrevisitedtheiranalysis,

acknowledgingthatthespeedandscaleofspendinghasoutpacedtheirexpectationsbyameaningfulmargin.Partofthisdynamicisdrivenbystronghyperscalercapex—after

1Q26earnings,ourinternetteamincreasedtheir2026and2027Hyperscalercapexforecastby+5%and+17%to$805billionand$1,116billion,respectively.

Publicdebtmarketsareclearlyopen,withrecordglobalvolumein2025helpingto

financeheightenedAIinvestmentspend.WeanalyzeannualglobalcorporatebondandsyndicatedloanissuancetrendsovertimeasapercentageofUSnominalGDPtoaccountforeconomicgrowth.In2025,arecord$13.3trillionofglobalcorporatedebt/loan

issuancewas~43%ofnominalGDP,or7%abovehistoricallong-termaverageof~40%.

Withinthatbroadermarket,AIisbecomingamaterialincrementaldriver,withAI-relatedissuancecontributingtoelevatedIGandHYsupply.Ahypotheticalscenarioinwhich

globalissuancemovestopeaklevelsasapercentageofUSnominalGDPwouldrepresent>$17trillioninannualcorporatefinancing.Whilethishigherlevelofissuancewouldbe

onlypartiallyAI-driven,webelievethissuggestsampleroomtoincreasinglyhelpfinanceongoingandfutureAIspend.Over$150billionofdata-centerbackedpaperiscurrentlyoutstandingacrosssecuredcorporateandsecuritizedcreditmarkets.

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Exhibit13:Financingmarketsareclearlyopen,asannualglobalcorporatebond/syndicatedloanissuancetrendedabove

averageasa%ofUSnominalGDPin2025toarecord$13.3T.Ahypotheticalscenarioinwhichglobalissuancemovestopeaklevelsasa%ofUSnominalGDPwouldrepresent>$17Tin

annualcorporatefinancing.

19952.5

19962.9

19973.2

19983.2

19993.5

20003.6

20013.3

20022.9

20033.3

20044.2

20055.4

20066.6

20077.7

20085.9

20096.1

20105.9

20116.9

20127.1

20137.7

20148.5

20158.3

20168.6

20179.1

20189.2

20199.1

20209.2

202111.1

20229.8

20239.4

202412.1

202513.3

BacktoAvg.13.1

GlobalCorporateDCM/SyndicatedLoansVol($T)%ofUSNominalGDP

HistoricalAvg.%ofUSNominalGDP

40.3%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

BacktoPeak

Note:'BacktoAvg.'and'BacktoPeak'analysesillustratescenariosinwhichvolumemovesbackto

historicalaverage/peaklevelsasa%ofUSnominalGDP,with5.8%growthinUSnominalGDPfromthe~$30.8Tin2025;Source:Dealogic,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit14:UScorporatebond/syndicatedloanissuancealso

trendedaboveaverageasa%ofUSnominalGDPin2025toarecord$5.7T.AhypotheticalscenarioinwhichUSissuance

movestopeaklevelsasa%ofUSnominalGDPwouldrepresent>$7Tinannualcorporatefinancing.

19951.2

19961.4

19971.7

19981.7

19991.7

20001.8

20011.9

20021.6

20031.6

20042.0

20052.1

20062.7

20073.2

20082.1

20092.0

20102.0

20112.7

20122.7

20133.3

20143.4

20153.4

20163.7

20174.1

20183.9

20193.7

20203.7

20214.7

20224.1

20233.6

20245.1

20255.7

USCorporateDCM/SyndicatedLoanVol($T)%ofUSNominalGDP

HistoricalAvg.%ofUSNominalGDP

17.4%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

BacktoAvg.

BacktoPeak

Note:'BacktoAvg.'and'BacktoPeak'analysesillustratescenariosinwhichvolumemovesbackto

historicalaverage/peaklevelsasa%ofUSnominalGDP,with5.8%growthinUSnominalGDPfromthe~$30.8Tin2025;Source:Dealogic,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit15:

USInvestmentGradeDebtRepresentsoverHalfofLiquid,PublicDebt

GlobalPublicDebtOutstanding

USLeveragedLoans,1.5

USHigh-Yield,1.5

APAC(excl.Japan&

Australia)High-Yield,0.1

APAC(excl.Japan&Australia)IG,0.9

EUIG,3.2

$18.3T

Total

Japan&AustraliaIG,0.5

Japan&AustraliaHigh-

Yield,0.0

EUHigh-Yield&Lev

Loans,0.8

USIG,9.8

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch;Note:DataasofMarch2026

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PublicEquityMarketsRetainSignificantCapacityforAIIssuance

Publicequitymarketsprovideanotherimportantlensthroughwhichtoassessthe

capacitytofinancetheAIbuild-out.Globalequitymarketcapitalizationtotals~$159

trillion,including~$76trillionintheUS,creatingadeeppooloflistedcapitalcapableofsupportingAI-relatedissuanceovertime.WhiletheAIinfrastructurecyclewillnotbe

fundedthroughequitymarketsalone,webelievepublicmarketsremainsignificantlyunderutilizedrelativetohistoricalissuancecapacity,reinforcingourviewthatthekeyconstraintislesstheavailabilityofcapitalandmorehowthatcapitalisintermediatedacrosspublicandprivatefinancingchannels.

Exhibit16:GlobalEquityMarketCapExceeds$150T

Source:BloombergdataasofMay2丿2025

IPOandbroaderECMactivityremainwellbelowhistoricallevelsrelativetonominal

GDP,suggestingsubstantialunusedcapacityforfutureAI-relatedissuance.GlobalIPO

issuancein2025totaled~$200billion,roughly50%belowhistoricalaveragelevelsasapercentageofUSnominalGDP.Areturntowardprioraverageorpeakissuancelevels

wouldimplypotentialannualIPOfinancingcapacityof~$412billion(ifreturntohistoricalaverage)and~$857billion(ifreturntopeakissuance)globally.IntheUSspecifically,a

returntohistoricalaverageandpeaklevelswouldrepresent~$165billionand~$460billion,respectively,bothfargreaterthan~$80billionofUSIPOissuancein2025.

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Broaderequitycapitalmarketsactivitysuggestsevengreatercapacity.GlobalECMissuancein2025totaled~$1trillion,morethan33%belowhistoricalaveragelevels

relativetoGDP.Anormalizationtowardhistoricalaverageorpeakissuancelevelswouldimplypotentialannualfinancingcapacityof~$1.6trillion(ifreturntohistoricalaverage)and~$2.6trillion(ifreturntopeakissuance)globally.Inourview,thesefiguresreinforcethatpublicequitymarketsremaincapableofabsorbingamateriallylargerAIfinancingcyclethancurrentissuancelevelsimply.IntheUSspecifically,areturntohistorical

averageandpeaklevelswouldrepresent$0.7trillionand$1.1trillion,respectively,bothfargreaterthan~$500billionofUSECMissuancein2025.

Exhibit17:GlobalIPOvolumein2025wasnearly50%below

historicalaveragelevelsasa%ofnominalGDP;AhypotheticalscenarioinwhichglobalIPOvolumemovesbacktoaverage/

peaklevelsasa%ofUSnominalGDPwouldrepresent~$412B/$857BinannualIPOfinancing,respectively.

GlobalIPOVolume($B)%ofUSNominalGDPHistoricalAvg.%ofUSNominalGDP

199576

1996106

1997114

1998118

1999178

2000224

2001104

200290

200393

2004176

2005217

2006300

2007374

2008107

2009123

2010301

2011181

2012143

2013197

2014275

2015207

2016143

2017210

2018225

2019206

2020339

2021623

2022176

2023122

2024128

2025198

BacktoAvg.412

BacktoPeak

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

-

1.3%

Exhibit18:USIPOvolumein2025was50%belowhistorical

averagelevelsasa%ofnominalGDP;AhypotheticalscenarioinwhichUSIPOvolumemovesbacktoaverage/peaklevelsasa%ofUSnominalGDPwouldrepresent~$165B/$457BinannualIPOfinancing,respectively.

199553

199679

199782

199864

1999111

2000107

200153

200245

200350

200477

200566

200663

200798

200831

200931

201054

201149

201261

201378

2014101

201539

201626

201752

201862

201968

2020180

2021332

202224

202325

202442

202578

BacktoAvg.165

BacktoPeak

USIPOVolume($B)%ofUSNominalGDPHistoricalAvg.%ofUSNominalGDP

1.6%

1.4%

1.2%

1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

-

0.5%

Note:'BacktoAvg.'and'BacktoPeak'analysesillustratescenariosinwhichvolumemovesbackto

historicalaverage/peaklevelsasa%ofUSnominalGDP,with5.8%growthinUSnominalGDPfromthe~$30.8Tin2025;Source:Dealogic,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit19:Onabroaderlevel,globalequityissuancevolumein2025wasmorethan33%belowhistoricalaveragelevelsasa%ofnominalGDP;AhypotheticalscenarioinwhichglobalECMvolumemovesbacktoaverage/peaklevelsasa%ofUS

nominalGDPwouldrepresent~$1.6T/$2.6Tinannualequityfinancing,respectively.

207

296

35