摩根士丹利-中国消费：当前消费趋势走向何方？-China Consumer：Where is consumption trending now-20260601

Morganstanley

RESEARCHFouNDATloN

June1,202612:59AMGMT

InvestorPresentation|AsiaPacific

ChinaConsumer:Whereisconsumptiontrendingnow?

Alphawise回

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTED+

LillianLou

EquityAnalyst

Lillian.Lou@

+8522848-6502

DustinWei

EquityAnalyst

Dustin.Wei@

+8522239-7823

HildyLing

EquityAnalyst

Hildy.Ling@

JennyYu

+8522239-7834

ResearchAssociate

Jenny.Yu1@

+8523963-1925

MoRGANSTANLEyTAiwANLimiTED+TerenceCheng

EquityAnalyst

Terence.Cheng@

+88622730-2873

JennyTing

ResearchAssociate

Jenny.Ting@

+88622730-2995

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTED+CarlosLiu,CFA

ResearchAssociate

CarlosLiu@morganstanleycom

+8522848-5206

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

FouNDATloN

CHiNA/HoNGKoNGCoNsumER

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewIn-Line

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

FouNDATloN

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3

Morganstanley

ConsumptionandMacroDrivers

1

4

Morganstanley

KeyMacroDataTracker

Retailsalesgrowth

Jan-25

4.0%

Feb-25

4.0%

Mar-25

5.9%

Apr-25

5.1%

May-25

6.4%

Jun-25

4.8%

Jul-25

3.7%

Aug-25

3.4%

Sep-25

3.0%

Oct-25

2.9%

Nov-25

1.3%

Dec-25

0.9%

Jan-26

2.8%

Feb-26

2.8%

Mar-26

1.7%

Apr-26

0.2%

GDPyoygrowth

5.4%

5.2%

4.8%

4.5%

5.0%

CPIyoygrowth

0.5%

-0.7%

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.3%

0.2%

0.7%

0.8%

0.2%

1.3%

1.0%

1.2%

PPIyoygrowth

-2.3%

-2.2%

-2.5%

-2.7%

-3.3%

-3.6%

-3.6%

-2.9%

-2.3%

-2.1%

-2.2%

-1.9%

-1.4%

-0.9%

0.5%

2.8%

DisposableIncome(Urban)yoygrowth

4.9%

4.4%

3.9%

3.9%

4.2%

Monthlynew-econavgsalaryyoygrowth

-6%

-11%

-4%

-2%

-3%

-4%

-3%

6%

3%

8%

6%

8%

6%

13%

3%

Householdsavingrate

33%

33%

33%

34%

34%

PMIEmployment-manufacturing

48.1

48.6

48.2

47.9

48.1

47.9

48.0

47.9

48.5

48.3

48.4

48.2

48.1

48.0

48.6

48.8

PMIEmployment-nonmanufacturing

46.7

46.5

45.8

45.5

45.5

45.5

45.6

45.6

45.0

45.2

45.3

46.1

46.1

46.0

45.2

45.5

Youthunemploymentrate

16%

17%

17%

16%

15%

15%

18%

19%

18%

17%

17%

17%

16%

16%

17%

16%

Secondhomepriceyoygrowth

-12%

-13%

-12%

-12%

-12%

-12%

-12%

-13%

-12%

-13%

-13%

-14%

-14%

-13%

-12%

-12%

Source:CEIC,NBS,MorganStanleyResearch

Source:CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch2

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5

FouNDATloN

Morganstanley

WealthEffectfromCapitalMarkets

KeyMacroDataTracker

GDPandCPI

Jun-11

Feb-12

Oct-12

Jun-13

Feb-14

Oct-14

Jun-15

Feb-16

Oct-16

Jun-17

Feb-18

Oct-18

Jun-19

Feb-20

Oct-20

Jun-21

Feb-22

Oct-22

Jun-23

Feb-24

Oct-24

Jun-25

Feb-26

Oct-26

Jun-27

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

Apr-26

CommercialPropertySales(LHS)MSCIChina(RHS)

(mnsqms)

300

250

200

150

100

50

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

YoY%

9

7

5

3

1

-1

-3

GDPDeflator

MSe

CPI

PPI

-5

Youthunemploymentrate

Chinasurveyedyouthunemploymentrate(%)

Age16-24(excludingstudents)Age16-24Overall(RHS)

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

China–neweconomy:

averagemonthlyentry-levelsalaries

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

Apr-26

ChinaNewEconomyAvg.MonthlyEntry-LevelSalaries

MonthlySalary(Rmb)YOY

15,000

14,000

13,000

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Mar-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Mar-26

3Source:CEIC,Bloomberg,NBS,Wind,Factset,MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

FouNDATloN

6

April26RetailSalesTrend

Morganstanley

RetailSalesTrend

ReportedYoYBasisCalculatedCAGRvs.2019

CategoriesApr26Mar26Apr26Mar26

OverallRetailSales

OverallRetailSales-exAutosRestaurant&Dining

Enterprisesaboveadesignatedsize

RetailSalesofGoods

EnterprisesaboveadesignatedsizeApparel,ShoesandTextile

Gold&Jewelry

Cosmetics

HomeFurnishing

F&B(incl.Alcohol&Tobacco)Food,GrainandOil

SoftDrinks

Alcohol&TobaccoHPC

Electronics&Appliances

SportsandEntertainmentEquipmen

OnlineRetailSales

CommercialGoods

0.2%

1.8%

2.2%

0.9%

-0.1%

-4.9%

3.6%

-21.3%

4.7%

-10.4%

5.4%

4.1%

3.6%

11.7%

3.5%

-15.1%

-8.0%

2.3%

0.2%

1.7%

3.2%

2.9%

2.0%

1.5%

1.2%

7.0%

11.7%

8.3%

-8.7%

9.0%

9.5%

8.2%

7.7%

4.6%

-5.0%

-2.0%

5.8%

2.5%

2.9%

3.2%

3.8%

9.3%

2.7%

3.0%

1.5%

3.0%

6.5%

-0.9%

8.4%

8.5%

6.9%

8.9%

5.8%

1.8%

NA

9.8%

6.5%

4.0%

4.1%

3.6%

9.9%

4.0%

4.9%

2.6%

7.3%

7.4%

-0.8%

9.4%

9.6%

7.7%

9.4%

6.9%

1.9%

NA

10.8%

6.7%

RetailSalesYoYBreakdown

Mar20

May20

Jul20

Sep20

Nov20

Jan21

Mar21

May21

Jul21

sep21

Nov21

Jan22

Mar22

May22

Jul22

Sep22

Nov22

Jan23

Mar23

May23

Jul23

Sep23

Nov23

Jan24

Mar24

May24

Jul24

Sep24

Nov24

Jan25

Mar25

May25

Jul25

Sep25

Nov25

Jan26

Mar26

100.0%

80.0%

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%

-20.0%

-40.0%

-60.0%

OverallretailsalesStaples*Discretionary*Restaurant&Dining

ChinaRetailSalesGrowthYoY

Source:NBS,MorganStanleyResearch.*basedonthesalesofenterprisesaboveadesignatedsize

RetailSalesYoYGrowth

ChinaRetailSalesGrowthYoY

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

Apr-26

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

RetailSalesCAGRvs2019Breakdown

Mar21

May21

Jul21

sep21

Nov21

Jan22

Mar22

May22

Jul22

Sep22

Nov22

Jan23

Mar23

May23

Jul23

Sep23

Nov23

Jan24

Mar24

May24

Jul24

Sep24

Nov24

Jan25

Mar25

May25

Jul25

Sep25

Nov25

Jan26

Mar26

OverallretailsalesStaples*Discretionary*Restaurant&Dining

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

-10.0%

ChinaRetailSalesCAGRvs2019

Source:NBS,MorganStanleyResearch.*basedonthesalesofenterprisesaboveadesignatedsize

4

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7

Morganstanley

RevenueandEarningsGrowthEstimates

China–ConsumerStocks:

Averagerevenueandearningsgrowth

15.7%13.0%

9.5%9.4.%.0%7.9%8.7%8.6%

4.3%5.3.5%6.7%3.5.90%3.%.4.

ConsumerStocksRevenueGrowth

ConsumerStocksRevenueGrowth-excl.liquor

Avg.YOYChinaConsumerStocksRevenue&EarningsGrowth

21.9%

22.2%22.5%21.5%

RetailSalesGrowth

ConsumerStocksEarningsGrowth

2015-192020-212022-23202420252026E2027E

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

14.3%

12.0%

6.8%

9.6%

7.1%

4.8%

25.0%

23.6%

7.0%

5.2%

ConsumerStocksEarningsGrowth-excl.liquor

ConsumerStock(MScoverage)marginchangesvs.

CPI-PPIspread

CPI-PPIvs.GPM

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

-10%

CPI-PPIGap(LHS)

GPM2YraveragemovementOPM2Yraveragemovement

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

Source:CompanyData,E=MorganStanleyResearchEstimates

Rawmaterialpricetrends

1Q24YoY

2Q24YoY

3Q24YoY

4Q24YoY

1Q25YoY

2Q25YoY

3Q25YoY

4Q252026EYoYYoY

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%

-30%

34%

27%

25%

16%

-16%

-19%

-11%

-12%

-14%

-17%

-1%-1%-6%

-10%-14%

4%1%

10%7%

3%

-2%-1%

3%5%5%5%

-4%

-12%

8%5%

-8%-7%-8%-6%-8%

-13%-13%

-4%-4%

10%11%11%

-2%-5%

-8%-7%

8%7%

1%0%

-10%

-10%

-13%

-14%

-17%

15%

11%

18%

17%

-6%

-7%

-8%

-2%

-6%

7%

3%

9%

6%

5%

1%

1%

-25%

Wheat

Sugar

Barley

RawMilk

PalmOil

Copper

PET

Aluminium

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.EstimatesarebasedonlastavailablepricesasofMay29,2026andassumetheyremainunchangedthroughoutyear.5

6

8

Morganstanley

ConsumerIndustryPerformanceandCatalysts

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9

Morganstanley

TimingSegmentFundamentalChanges

IPProduct

OEM

Travel

DutyFree

Sportswear

(+)

Offlinedining-outrecovery

Restaurant&Seasoning

Cosmetics

Offlinedining-outrecovery

Beer

Commoditypriceinflection

Dairy

Supply-demandbalance

Liquor

Liquor

HomeAppliances

Sell-offpostpricehike

Gold&Jewelry

FoodRetailer

DutyFree

Cosmetics

MassSportswear

SubSector

Timingofpositivechanges

1Q262Q263Q26

Weakdemandanddestocking

(-)

Highbaseaftersubsidies

Timingofnegative

changes

KeyCatalyst

4Q261Q27

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.7

10

Morganstanley

PreferredConsumerStockList

ChinaConsumerPreferredStockListfor2Q-3Q26

Segment

Stock

Retionale

Recoveryofoffline

serviceconsumption

Restuarnt

YUMC

Haidilao

Solidexcution,pricingandcostleaderintheindustry,attractiveshareholderreturn

Backongrowthtrackwithmacrotailwindsandarevitalizedleadership

Pricingrecovery

Beer

CRB

Continuedmixupgradeandmarketsharegainofcorepremiumproducts

Supplyrecalibration

Dairy

Mengniu

Reducedpromotiondrivenbyrawmilksupplyreduction,

Yili

leadingtorationalindustryenvironmentandOPMimprovement

Companysepcific

Beauty

GiantBiogene

Followingthesalesshortfallin2H25broughtbyexternallydrivennegativepublicityandoperationalimbalances,GBisoptimizingitsgo-to-marketandbrandingstrategywhile

constructingstrongproductpipeline,improvingdownsideresilienceandcreatingupsidedrivers.

IPproducts

PopMart

StrongoverseasgrowthdrivenbynewIPlaunchesandchannelexpansion,inadditiontosolidoperationinChina

FreshlyBrewedTea

Chagee

ImprovementandturnaroundofunitstoreGMVyoytrendwithnewproductlaunches,efficiencyimrpovementanddisciplinedstoreopen;overseasexpansionaslong-termdriver

ChinaConsumerPreferredStocks

PreferredChineseConsumerStocks

Company

Rating

Currency

Current

Price

PT

Bull

Case

Bear

Case

Market

Cap(USDmn)

P/EValuation

2025-27

EPS

2026

PEG

Div.Yield

FCFYield

2026E

2027E

2026

2027

2026

2027

Mostpreferred

YUMC.N

YUMC-US

YUMChina

OW

USD

42.4

60.0

73.0

33.0

14,814

13.9x

12.4x

15%

0.9x

10.1%

6.8%

7.2%

8.0%

6862.HK

6862-HK

Haidilao

OW

HKD

12.8

20.0

39.0

10.0

9,075

12.2x

10.3x

22%

0.5x

5.9%

7.0%

5.2%

6.9%

0291.HK

291-HK

CRB

OW

HKD

24.2

35.0

41.0

20.0

10,017

11.2x

10.2x

9%

1.3x

4.9%

5.9%

9.1%

10.2%

2319.HK

2319-HK

Mengniu

OW

HKD

17.0

20.0

26.0

10.4

8,394

12.0x

10.6x

18%

0.7x

3.5%

4.0%

4.1%

7.1%

600887.SS

600887-CN

Yili

OW

CNY

26.9

33.0

39.0

18.0

25,157

13.8x

12.7x

8%

1.8x

5.8%

6.3%

7.1%

8.9%

2367.HK

2367-HK

GiantBiogene

OW

HKD

30.1

43.0

59.0

24.0

4,072

14.3x

12.4x

9%

1.5x

4.2%

4.8%

4.7%

4.3%

9992.HK

9992-HK

PopMart

OW

HKD

173.4

247.0

361.0

117.0

29,670

15.0x

12.9x

11%

1.3x

1.6%

2.0%

2.9%

4.4%

CHA.O

CHA-US

Chagee

OW

USD

12.8

15.5

19.5

8.0

1,601

9.4x

8.8x

27%

0.4x

0.0%

0.0%

4.5%

8.3%

Source:Factset,MorganStanleyResearch.PricesasofMay29,2026.Note:YUMChina’sdivyieldincludessharerepurchaseandcashdividend.8

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH11

Morganstanley

SharePricePerformanceofConsumerIndustryandKeyIndices

PricemovementofoverallChineseconsumerstocks

vs.majorindices

Annualpricemovementofkeyindexandsectors

20222023202420252026YTD

OverallconsumerMSCIChinaCSI300HSI

27%28%

18%

6%

16%15%18%

8%

1%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%

-30%

-2%

-9%

-12%

-12%-15%-22%-22%

-13%-11%-14%

-16%

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Dec-23

Jun-24

Dec-24

Jun-25

Dec-25

Jun-26

Dec-26

InflationaryPeriodConsumerAverageP/ECPI(L)CPI-PPIDifference(L)

55

MSe

45

0%

35

CPI-PPIvs.ChinaconsumersectorP/E

Source:Factset,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:PricedasofMay29,2026.

-5%

-10%

-15%

10%

5%

25

15

5

ChinaconsumersectorP/Evaluationpremiumto

MSCIChina

ChinaConsumerPEPremiumtoMSCIChina

ConsumerPEPremiumtoMSCIChinaCPIyoy(RHS)(%)

180%7

160%6

140%5

120%4

100%3

80%2

60%1

40%0

20%-1

0%-2

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21

May-22

Nov-22

May-23

Nov-23

May-24

Nov-24

May-25

Nov-25

May-26

ChinaconsumersectorP/EvsGlobalpeeravg.P/E

May-05

May-06

May-07

May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22

May-23

May-24

May-25

May-26

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

GlobalconsumeraverageP/EChinaconsumeraverageP/E

9

12

Morganstanley

ValuationandEarningsEstimates

China–consumerstocks:

valuationvs.salesandearningsgrowth

ConsumerStocks

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24

Sep-24

Mar-25

Sep-25

Mar-26

Sep-26

N12MP/E(X)

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

-

ConsumerStocksN12MP/ESectorSalesGrowthSectorearningsgrowth

55%

45%

35%

30%

25%

2011:—--8%+12%

-3%

-15%

3%+4%2%

2019:2024:4%

8%5%

2023:8%8%

+1%+3%2026e:5%-5%

20%+13%2013:+9%2016:2017:

+13%+173%+17%2018:

+24%10%10%2015:

2012:2014:19%

+8%2025:2%

16%

12%

2020:2022:

2021:

+12%

2310%:

25%

27%

65%

12%

15%

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

Apr-26

ConsensusSalesConsumerSectorConsensusSalesIndexvs.PE

120

115

110

105

100

95

ConsumersectorPE

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Consensusconsumersalesvs.P/E

2019Sales

2023Sales

2027sales

2020Sales

2024Sales

SectorPE

700

2021Sales

2025Sales

2022Sales

2026Sales

90

85

80

75

China–consumerstocks:valuationvs.ex-liquor

ConsumersectorP/E--ConsumerStock15-yearaverage

ConsumerStockex-liquorP/E--ConsumerStockex-liquor15-yearaverage

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

16x14x

19x

20x

5

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21

May-22

Nov-22

May-23

Nov-23

May-24

Nov-24

May-25

Nov-25

May-26

-

Consensusconsumerearningsvs.P/E

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

Apr-26

ConsensusEarningsConsumerSectorConsensusEarningsIndexvs.PEConsumersectorPE

12040

115

35

110

30

105

25

100

9520

902019Earnings2020Earnings2021Earnings2022Earnings1585

102023Earnings2024Earnings2025Earnings2026Earnings

5

75

2027EarningsSectorPE

700

80

Source:Factset,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates(2026-27)10

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH13

Morganstanley

OwnershipofConsumerStocks

May-2015

Nov-2015

May-2016

Nov-2016

May-2017

Nov-2017

May-2018

Nov-2018

May-2019

Nov-2019

May-2020

Nov-2020

May-2021

Nov-2021

May-2022

Nov-2022

May-2023

Nov-2023

May-2024

Nov-2024

May-2025

Nov-2025

May-2026

Averageinstitutionalownershipas%offreefloat

forconsumercompanies

InstitutionalInvestorHoldingsas%ofFreeFloat50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

InstitutionalHoldingsavg.Foreigninstitutionalholdingsavg.

0.0%

AverageSouthboundownershipas%offreefloatfor

consumerH-shares

AverageSouthboundSharesas%ofFreeFloatforChinaConsumerSector

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

Apr-26

S

11

0.0%

ource:Wind,Factset,MorganStanleyResearch

46%

44%

39%

36%32%

26%

20%20%

Jan-14Jan-19May-26

50%

41%

50%

44%

39%39%40%

23%

Averageinstitutionalownershipas%offreefloatfor

consumercompaniesbycategories

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

27%

24%25%25%

58%

50%

47%

35%

25%

41%

38%

23%

39%

36%31%

37%

34%

30%

36%357%

52%

47%

41%

43%

35%

31%

26%

50%

46%

41%

48%

45%

49%

43%

14

Morganstanley

MSeearningsestimatesandvs.consensusestimates

IPProduct

MassBeauty

RoboCleaner

OEM

HPC

Gold&Jewellery

Seasoning

Dairy

DutyFree

Restaurant

Beer

F&B

Sportswear

LargeHomeAppliance

Agriculture

PremiumLiquor

OtherLiquor

SmallHomeAppliance

Consumeroverall

Discretionary

Staples

EarningsGrowthbyCategoryAverageEarningsGrowth

2015-192020-212022-23202420252026

39%

2%

9%3%

8%

8%10%6%

-2%

30%

15%10%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-7%-7%

4%

-7%

1%

-7%

3%1%

23%

13%

11%

1%

14%

5%

1%

-16%

45%

71%

80%

60%

12%

-7%

-4%

-7%

2%

9%

6%

5%

2026consumersegments:Ournetprofitestimatesvs.consensus

Source:Factset,MorganStan

12

-1.8%0.4%3.2%1.0%0.2%2.1%1.1%0.2%0.9%-8.4%-6.9%

%Diffvs.ConsensusSmartMeanon2026ENetProfits

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%-15%

-20%

4.0%2.8%

-3.2%

leyResearchestimates(MSe)

3.3%

-4.0%

HighLowMSe

-2.2%

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH15

Morganstanley

P/Evs.EarningsGrowthbySegment

TE

5.0

0.0

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%

2026EEarningsGrowth

Seasoning

Beer

HPCCosmeticsF&B

Dairy

SportsweaRrestaurantLargeHomeAppliance

SmallHomeAppliances

PremiumLiquor

IPProduct

RoboCleaner

Gold&Jewelry

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

OEM

Source:Factset,MorganStanleyResearchestimates

13

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

FouNDATloN

16

Morganstanley

Marketcapofkeyconsumersub-sectors

1,986,907

1,787,441

17%

16%

6%

6%4%

5%

37%40%

F&B

LargeAppliancesCosmetics

1,056,854

20%613,927

8%

4%21%

5%

5%

33%28%

Dairy

HPC

OtherGloballyLinked

1,454,901

1,151,0441,157,171

13%

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0

24%

5%

7%

32%

26,863