转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略

ANALYSISSTUDYThereisspaceforone-STUDYThereisspaceforone-three-lineheadinghereThereisspaceforaone-totwo-linesubheadinghere,thesubheadingcantoberemovedTransitioningregionsinChina:evidencefromindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxi

Agora 博众智合能源转型–转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略→ 请按以下格式引用：→ 请按以下格式引用：22报告题目转型中的煤炭产业链：山西与陕西的挑战与应对策略作者机构博众智合能源转型北京市朝阳区东方东路19号德国中心502E合作机构山西科城能源环境创新研究院中国煤炭学会项目负责人涂建军博众智合能源转型中国区总裁kevin.tu@杨舟博众智合能源转型中国地方能源转型项目副主任zhou.yang@主要作者）山西部分：，）陕西部分：，）致谢MaiaHaruHallLenaTropschugAnjaWerner序言尊敬的读者：2025年112035持续增长。2025年，山西省和陕西省的原煤产量同比分别增长2.1%和2030巨的转型挑战——如何在推进经济结构调整和满足国家能近期中东地区地缘政治冲突引发国际油气市场剧烈震荡，进一步加剧了包括中国在内的全球能源安全焦虑。在此背景下，煤炭及其相关产业在能源保供中的战略价值更加凸

谨此呈献，敬祈指正。涂建军博众智合能源转型中国区总裁→主要观点→121020222023年数据97%及全产业链排放的4020303煤炭生产大省的减排也取决于全国煤炭消费需求的整体下降。20.4950%的煤炭和304度协同。AgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiPrefaceDearreader,InNovember2025,ChinasubmitteditsupdatedNDC,committingtocuteconomy-wideemissionsbytotenpercentbelowpeaklevelsby2035–itsfirstexplicittotalemissionscap,signalingashiftfromintensity-basedtoabsolutereductions.Atthesametime,coaloutputandpowercapacityinprovincescontinuetoIn2025,coalproductioninShanxiandShaanxigrewby2.1per-centand2.9percent,reflectingongoingeconomicandenergysecurityconsiderations.AsChinaits2030carbonpeakinggoalandreformsits“dualcontrol”systemfromenergytocarbon,theseprov-incesfacethechallengeofreducingemissions,whilesupportingeconomicrestructuringandaligningnationalenergytransitionpriorities.

Recentglobalenergymarketvolatility,includingrisingglobaloilandgaspricesduetothewarintheMiddleEast,furtherunderscoretheimportanceandurgencyofacceleratingstructuraltransformationratherthanreinforcingcarbon-intensivepathways.ThisstudyprovidesaquantitativeanalysisofShanxiandShaanxi’scoalindustrychains,providingaframeworktounderstandstructuralchallengesandidentifyactionablepathwaysfordecarbonisation,industrialupgradingandeconomicdiversification.highlightingsector-specificstrategiesandpolicylevers,itaimstosupportatimelyandorderlytransi-tiontowardsChina’sclimate,energyandsocioeco-nomicgoals.hopeyoufinditKevinManagingDirector,AgoraEnergyChina→Keyfindingsataglance→1China’smajorcoal-producingprovincesrequireproactivepolicyplanningpairedwithconsistentcentralgovernmentsignalstoguidetheirtransitiontowardscarbonneutralityby2060.Haltingnewcoalpowerplantapprovalsandsettingacleartimetableforphasingdownexistingassetswillbetorepositioningtheseprovincesascleanenergyandmanufacturingbases.Acoherentpolicyframeworkcanenablecoordinatedeconomicandenergytransitionsattheprovinciallevel.2DecarbonisingthecoalindustrychainsinChina’smajorcoalprovincesisessentialforthecountrytopeakcarbonemissionsby2030.CoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiaccountforover90%ofprovincialemissions;togetherexceeding1billiontonnes–nearlytwicetheemissionsofGermany.Themainsourcesarecoal-firedpower,coking,andsteelproductioninShanxi,andcoalpowerandcoal-chemicalindustriesinShaanxi.Achievingtheir2030peakingtargetsthereforerequiresclear,sector-specificdecarbonisationroadmapsforthesekeyindustries.3EmissionreductionsintheseprovincesalsodependonlowercoaldemandacrossChina.ShanxiandShaanxitogetherformtheworld’slargestcoal-producingregion,withacombinedannualoutputofabout2049milliontonnes–roughlyequivalenttothetotalproductionofIndia,Indonesia,andtheEuropeanUnioncombined.Aroundhalfofthiscoalisconsumedoutsidethetwoprovinces,mean-ingtheirtransitioncannotbeachievedlocallyalone.Itrequiresnationaleffortstoreducecoaluseandcoordinatedactionbetweencentralandregionalgovernments.4China’sshiftinits“dualcontrol”mechanism–fromcontrollingenergyconsumptiontocarbonemis-sions–isanopportunitytoreshapetheprovinces’energystructuresandaccelerateindustrialupgrading.ThischangealignswithChina’supdatedNDC,whichintroducesabsolute–ratherthanin-tensity-based–targets,markingadecisiveshifttoanewpolicyparadigm.Leveragingthenewdualcontrolcanbetteralignlocalenergyandemissionsmanagementwithnationalclimategoals.目录ExecutiveSummary 9必性 炭生在全国能系色 炭业政能源型政策的致性 20能“双控到“双控化影响 西和西的形挑战 25对炭业链究意的 2627究界 27能系统流动析 28能源供给 28能源换 28二能源及直接使能源的输配 端费况 能源利率 系统流动析 炭生产 炭工 36炭运输 36化利用 炭利率 42全以及炭业链碳排放 42全碳排放总结构 42炭业链的碳排放 重排环减排思路 44省 48究界 48能系统流动析 能源供给 能源换 二能源及直接使能源的输配 50端费况 53目录系统流动析 54炭生产 54炭工 54炭运输 57换利用 58排放重环节 62全碳排放总量 62炭业链的碳排放 62重排环减排思路 63政策68国家68级面 6969参文献 录 73图目录Figure0-1Shareofcoalconsumptionandgrowthofcoalproduction,2001-202410Figure0-2CoalflowdiagramofShanxiprovince,202211Figure0-3CoalflowdiagramofShaanxiprovince,202212Figure0-4O2emissionsysegmentoftheoalindustrychaininShanxiprvin,2214Figure0-5CO₂emissionsbysegmentofthecoalindustrychaininShaanxiprovince,202314炭业发展17全国GDP速,2000-202417炭业发展181-4 西和炭量全比,2000-2024192024及其地区生值及原煤量231-6 能源汽量及在全国重24图2022能流网络）29图2022能流（桑基）31图2022分领域端能费量结构32图2-4 2022煤流网络）34图2022煤流（桑基）35图2-6 2000-2024炭量化趋全重36图2022流网络）38图2-8 2022流（桑基）39图2-9 类型电机量400炭O2243图2-11山西省煤炭产业链分环节碳排放，202245图2022年能流网络）51图3-2 2022年能流（桑基）50图端费环分门能费53图3-4 2022年端费环能源品种费成53图3-5 2022年煤流网络）55图3-6 2022年煤流（桑基）57图2022年流网络）59图3-8 2022年流（桑基）60图3-9 化燃燃烧碳排放结按燃料类型6230炭O22363表目录表1-1“十三五”和“十四五”时期国家政策关于煤炭产业政策导向的变化20表1-2能源“双控”和碳“双控”政策对比22表2-12022年山西省能源系统综合有效利用率计算表32表2-2山西省煤炭铁路运输通道37表2-32022年山西省煤炭系统综合有效利用率计算表42表2-4山西省全省碳排放，202242表2-5山西省煤炭产业链碳排放，202244表3-12022年陕西省能源系统综合有效利用率计算表54表3-22022年陕西省煤炭系统综合有效利用率计算表61表1-a山西省煤炭产业政策和能源转型政策（2020年至今）73表1-b陕西省煤炭产业政策和能源转型政策（2016年至今）76ExecutiveSummaryChinsenergytranstnisaccelertingrad,renewablesdeploymentbreakingrecordsinrecentyears.Atthesametime,progressisincreasinglyshapedbyastructuraltensionbetweenthegovern-ment’sshort-termenergysecurityprioritiesandlong-termclimatecommitments.ThistensionisvisibleinChina’smajorcoal-producingprovinces,particularlyShanxiandShaanxi,wherenationalenergysupplysecurityobjectivesanddecarbonisa-tiongoalsintersectmostdirectly,andwherepolicychoicesoverthenextfiveyearswillhavelong-termimplicationsforbotheconomicdevelopmentandemissiontrajectories.ThisreporthighlightshowChina’sevolvingpol-icyframeworkcreatesatimelyopportunitytoguidetheseshort-term"energysecurity"awayfromcarbonlock-in,ratherthantowardsnewinvestmentsincoalcapacity.Inparticular,itexaminestherecentnationalpolicyshiftfromanenergy“dualcontrol”system(controllingtotalenergyconsumptionandenergyintensity)toacarbon“dualctol”managemetandalutnssemc-trollingtotalcarbonemissionsandcarbonintensity).Thereportanalyseshowthisshiftcouldunlockstrongerincentivesforemissionreductionsandacceleratestructuraltransformationincarbon-in-tensiveindustriesforShanxiandShaanxi.LookingaheadtoChina’s2035NDCaswellastheadventofthe15thPlan2026-2030),thisreportoutlinespathwaysforhowthecentralandprovincialgovernmentscanstrategicallyrepositioncoalregionsfromfossilenergybasestoinnovativemanufacturinghubs.Itfurtherdemonstrateshoweconomicrestructuringatthesubnationalleveltowardshigher-endmanufacturing,cleanenergysupplyandamoreresilientlabourforcecantrans-formthelow-carbontransitionintoasourceofsus-tainablegrowthandlong-termcompetitiveness.

ShanxiandShaanxiundershiftingprioritiesSincethe11thFYP(2006-2010),Chinahasacceler-atedeffortstoconcentratecoalproductioninitscen-tralandwesternregionsaspartofabroaderstrategytostrengthensupplycoordinationandimprovesystemefficiency.2024,Shanxi,Shaanxi,InnerMongoliaandXinjiangwereproducing3.9billiontonnesofrawcoalperyear–81.6percentofnationaloutput–up14.8percentagepointsfromadecadeearlier(ChinaNationalCoalAssociation,2024).Thisconcentrationcontinuedevenduringperiodsofnationalproductiondeclinein2015-2016,under-scoringthestructuralimportanceplacedontheseregionsforChina’senergysystem.Centralpolicyhaslongsoughttobalanceenergysecurity,greendevelopmentandeconomicefficiency,withdifferentprioritiesemphasisedacrossplan-ningperiods.Duringthe13thFYP(2016-2020),forexample,airpollutioncontrolfeaturedprominently,leadingtocoalconsumptioncapsinprovincesandthelargestdeclineincoal’sshareoftheenergymixobservedinanyplanningperiod(Figure0-1).After2020,thelandscapebegantoshiftagain.Geopoliticaltensions,tradefrictions,theglobalenergycrisisandmarketvolatilityincreasinglyinfluencedChina’sdomesticenergypolicydebates–aswellascoalpricedynamics.Inresponse,theChi-nesegovernmentplacedgreateremphasisonensur-ingsupplyadequacyandsystemreliability.Withinthispolicyframing,coalwaspositionedasaing”componentoftheenergysystem,accompaniedbyrenewedpolicysupportforincreasingproduction.supportthisobjective,measureswereintroducedtoacceleratethereleaseofadvancedcoalproduc-tioncapacityandtheapprovalofmatureprojects,triggeringanewwaveoflarge-scalecapacity1511.3107.7Changeofpercentagepointsofcoal'sshareinenergyconsumptionAverageannualgrowthrateofcoalproduction0.80-5-3.2-3.7-5.4-6.9-1010thFYP(2001-2005)11thFYP(2006-2010)12thFYP1511.3107.7Changeofpercentagepointsofcoal'sshareinenergyconsumptionAverageannualgrowthrateofcoalproduction0.80-5-3.2-3.7-5.4-6.9-1010thFYP(2001-2005)11thFYP(2006-2010)12thFYP(2011-2015)13thFYP(2016-2020)14thFYP(2021-present)NationalBureauofStatisticsexpansion.Thepolicyorientationtowardscoalpoweralsounderwentamajoradjustment–from“strictcontrol”underthe13thFYPto“rationaldevelop-ment”underthe14thTheprincipleof“estab-lishbeforedismantling”,formallyarticulatedin2022,reflectsasequencingapproachtotheenergytransition,wherebynew,reliableandcleanenergycapacitymustbefullybuiltandoperationalbeforeanyexistingfossilfuelcapacity–especiallycoal–isphasedout.Asof2024,theaveragegrowthrateofcoalproductionunderthe14thFYPhadreacheditshighestlevelinadecade,almostthreetimesthelevelrecordedduringthe12thUnderthisnationalpolicyorientation–centredonincreasingproductionandensuringsupply–ShanxiandShaanxitookonanincreasinglyprominentroleinChina’scoalsupplysystem.Theirsharesofrawcoalandcokeproductionreachedten-yearhighsin2020and2021andhavelargelyremainedattheseelevatedlevelssince.In2024,ShanxiandShaanxiaccountedfor27percentand16percentofChina’stotalrawcoalproduction,respectively,whiletheirsharesofnationalcokeoutputstoodat19percentand9percent.Morethanhalfoftheircoaloutputwasexportedtootherprovinces,andover30percentoftheirelectricitywastransmittedelsewherewithinChina(Figure0-2,FigureTheseinterprovincial

flowshighlighttheextenttowhichprovincialenergysystemsareembeddedwithin,andshapednationalsupplysecurityobjectives.WhilenationalpolicieshavereinforcedShanxi’sandShaanxi’srolesasso-calledpillarsofenergysecu-rityintheshorttomediumterm,theireconomicstructuresandemissionprofileshavealsobecomeincreasinglylockedintocarbon-intensivepathways.AsChinaadvancestowardsitscarbonpeakingandneutralitycommitments,thisdualrole–energystabilisertodayanddecarbonisationfront-run-nertomorrow–addssignificantcomplexitytothetransition.Provincialgovernmentsfaceadifficultbalancingtask:theyareexpectedtoguaranteecoalsupplyfornationalenergysecurity,whileavoidinglong-termrelianceonhigh-carbonindustries.Solv-ingthisdilemmarequiresnotonlytechnologicalandindustrialupgradingattheprovinciallevel,butalsoclearandcrediblepolicysignalsfromthecentralgov-ernmenttoalignenergysecurityimperativeswithlong-termclimategoals.Intheabovecontext,thedirectiontakenbythesetwoprovinceswillsignificantlyshapeChina’sabilitytoreconcilesupplysecuritywithacrediblepost-2030emissiondecline.[tonnesofstandardcoalequivalent]PrimaryEnergyInputRecyclingProcessing14GasproductionConversionImportsHeatingCoalElectricity OilproductsFinalConsumptionOtherIncreaseinventoryLossCokingCokeIndustryCoalDirectuseTransportationtootherprovincesoalfwdiagrmof[tonnesofstandardcoalequivalent]PrimaryEnergyInputRecyclingProcessing14GasproductionConversionImportsHeatingCoalElectricity OilproductsFinalConsumptionOtherIncreaseinventoryLossCokingCokeIndustryCoalDirectuseTransportationtootherprovincesCoalinputsincludelocalcoalproductionof848.69milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalence,with79.22milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalencetransferredin,andareductionininventoryof2.09milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalence.Theinputsalsoinclude16.77milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceintheformofcleanedcoaltransferredin.Thisfigureonlyconsidersrawcoalusedforlocalconsumptionanddoesnotinclude131.19milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalencetransferredoutand0.21milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceexported.NationalBureauofStatisticsChina’sevolving“dualcontrol”framework:fromenergytocarbonSince2020,Chinahasacceleratedreformstoitsgov-ernanceframeworkforenergy-andemission-inten-siveprojects.Duringthe12thFYP(2011-2015),Chinaimplementedtheaforementioned“dualcontrol”pol-icyontotalenergyconsumptionandenergy(energyconsumptionperGDPorenergyconsump-tionperunitofproduct)tomanageitsenergysystem.Thisapproachfocusedonhowmuchenergywasandhowefficientlyitsupportedeconomicgrowth.Provincesandindustriesweregiventargetstolimitoverallenergyuseandimproveefficiency,which

helpedmoderateenergydemandgrowthbutdidnotdirectlyreflectclimateimpact.However,energycon-trolsdidnotdifferentiatebetweenhigh-carbonandlow-carbonenergysources:consumingrenewableelectricityandburningcoalweretreatedsimilarlyinaccountingterms.In2021,Beijingproposedastrategicshift–fromcontrollingenergyconsumptiontomanagingcar-bonemissions–byintroducingtheconceptofacarbonemissions“dualcontrol”system.Thisshiftrepresentedamovefrominput-basedmanagementtooutcome-basedclimategovernance.prioritis-ingemissionsratherthanenergyconsumption,the[tonnesofstandardcoalequivalent]Primaryenergyinput ProcessingConversionRecycling[tonnesofstandardcoalequivalent]Primaryenergyinput ProcessingConversionRecyclingGasproductionFinalConsumptionNaturalgasCoalproducts IncreaseinventoryHeat ImportsHeatingOilproductsOtherDirectuseRawmaterialsElectricityLossCokingCokeandothercokingproductsCoalIndustryTransportationtootherprovincesCoalinputsincludelocalcoalproductionof534.84milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalence,with29.67milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalencetransferredin,andareductionininventoryof0.40milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalence.Theinputsalsoincludemilliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceintheformofcleanedcoaltransferredin,0.71milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceintheformofotherwashedcoaltransferredin,and0.45milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceintheformofcoalganguetransferredin.Thisfigureonlyconsidersrawcoalusedforlocalconsumptionanddoesnotinclude377.02milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceofrawcoaltransferredout,17.33milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceofcleanedcoaltransferredout,and11.18milliontonnesofstandardcoalequivalenceofotherwashedcoaltransferredout.NationalBureauofStatisticsemergingframeworkbetteralignedclimateobjec-tiveswitheconomicdevelopment,strengtheningincentivesforcleanenergydeploymentandelectri-fication,andprovidinggreaterflexibilityforregionstopursuegrowthpathwaysthatarebothlow-carbonandeconomicallyviable.In2024,theStateCouncilofChinasetoutaroadmapforanationwidecarboncontrolframework.Theroadmapproposedtwophasesforimplementation:duringthe15thFYP(2026-2030),thegovernmentwillprioritisecarbonintensitycontrol,supported

bytotalemissioncaps,whilestrengtheningcarbonaccounting,evaluationandproductcarbonfootprintsystemstosupportcarbonpeaking.Afterpeaking(by2030),totalemissioncontrolwillbecomethedominantmechanismtodriveasustainedemissiondecline.TheallocationoftheseclimatetargetsissimilartotheEuropeanEffortSharingRegulation.Nationalcarbonemissionsandintensitytargetswillbeallo-catedtoprovinces,thentocitiesandenterprisesbasedonaseriesofmethodologiesthatarestillunderdevelopment,butindicatorssuchasregionalstrategicposition,economicdevelopmentstatusandhistori-calemissionsaregenerallyagreedtobeconsidered.Thispolicystructureisprocessingatasteadypace.Withinthe15thaprovincialcarbonbudgetmanagementsystemandtargetevaluationassess-mentsystemareexpectedtobeestablished.Thisleavesopenavaluablepolicywindowforprovincialgovernmentstoreshapetheirenergyandeconomicstructure.AsChinaentersthe15thnationalcoalconsump-tionisexpectedtopeakandgraduallystabilise,sig-nalingastructuralturningpointforcoal-dependentregionssuchasShanxiandShaanxi.Thistransitionprovidesaopportunitytoalignenergysecuritywithlong-termclimateobjectives–avoidingnewinvestmentsincoalcapacity,whilecreatingspacefornewdevelopmentpathways.Againstthisbackdrop,thereporthighlightsthesignificanceofthenationalpolicyshiftfromenergydualcontroltocarbondualcontrol.Itillustrateshowthisshiftcanprovideclearersignalsformanagingcoalcapacity,facilitatetheorderlyphase-downofcoalprojectsandhelppreventpotentialcarbonleakagefromenergy-ex-portingprovinces.strengtheningcarbon-basedgovernance,thenewframeworkcanremovestruc-turalconstraintsonindustrialupgradingandsupportamorecoordinatedtransformationofcoal-relianteconomies.Morethanever,provincessuchasShanxiandShaanxineedaclearunderstandingoftheirbaselines,sectoralcompositionandsupplychaindynamicstodesigneffectivereductionstrategies.Thisreporttracesenergyflowsandquantifieswhereemissionsoccuralongthecoalindustrychaintoidentifythesectorswheretransitionpolicywillhavethehighestleverage.Italsoprovidesessentialdataandmethodologicalguidanceforpolicydesign.Thestudyaimstosupportprovincesintranslatingnationaltargetsintospecificregions,industriesandenterprises,enhancingthefeasibility,transpar-encyandmeasurabilityofpolicyimplementation.

ThecoalindustrychainandcarbonemissionsShanxiandShaanxiAnalysisconductedbyAgoraEnergyChinaestimatesfossilenergy–relatedcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsinShanxi,1withafocusonCO₂emissionsalongthecoalindustrychainin2022.EmissionsfromShanxi’scoalindustrychaincoverCO₂emissionsfromfossilfueluseduringcoalproduction,transportation,processingandconversion,andfinalconsumption(Figure0-2).In2022,Shanxi’senergyconsumption–relatedCO₂emissionstotaled619milliontonnes.Emissionsfromthecombustionofcoal,naturalgasandoilaccountedfor94percentofthetotal,while6percentcamefromindustrialprocessemissions.Coalcombustionalonecontributed88percentoftheprovince’stotalCO₂emissions.Inaddition,CO₂emissionsassociatedwithelectricityexportedfromShanxitootherprov-incesrepresented17percentoftheprovince’stotalemissions.Emissionsfromfossilenergyconsumptionalongthecoalindustrychainreached575milliontonnes,accountingfor93percentofShanxi’stotalCO₂emissions.Nearlyalltheseemissionsoccurredduringthecoalconversionandfinalcon-sumptionstages(Figure0-4).Thethreelargestemit-tingsectorswerepowerandheatgeneration(aboutpercentoftotalcoal-chainemissions),ironandsteelproduction(20percent)andcoking(8.3percent).CO₂emissionsfromthepowerandheat,ironandsteel,andcokingsectorsmainlyresultfromcoalcombustion.Incontrast,52.7percentofCO₂emis-sionsinthebuildingmaterialssector2comefromindustrialprocesses.Emissionsinthechemicalsindustryandtheresidentialsectorareprimarilydrivenbyelectricityuse,accountingforper-centand76.6percentoftheirrespectivesectoralemissions.Fossilfuelcombustionandprocessemissionsofindustries,includingcement,limeandcrudesteelmanufacturing.Cement,glass,ceramicsandlime.AgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiCO₂emissionsbysegmentofthecoalindustrychain →Fig.inShanxiprovince,2022Coaltransportation1.7%Coalproduction0.6%

Coalprocessing,-consumption97.8%

7.3%8.3%20%

60.1%Electricityandheatsupply

Steel Coking Buildingmaterials Chemicals ResidentialAuthors'calculationbasedonShanxiStatisticalYearbook2023CO₂emissionsbysegmentofthecoalindustrychain →Fig.inShaanxiprovince,20236%Finalconsumption Coal 6.1%ofcoal processing&18.7% conversion 40.2%Coal 79.8% 26.9%transportation1%Coalproduction<1%Coking Heating Coaltooil Coaltogas CoalproductsprocessingAuthors'calculationbasedonShaanxiStatisticalInShaanxi,CO₂emissionsfromfossilfuelcombus-tion(excludingprocessemissions)reached430mil-liontonnesin2023,around10percentofwhichcamefromelectricityexportedtootherprovinces.Coalcombustionaloneaccountedfor78.2percentoftotalCO₂emissions,whileoilandnaturalgascontributed13.6percentand8.2percent,respectively.AlongthecoalindustrychaininShaanxi,thecom-bustionofcoal,oil,andnaturalgasgenerated352milliontonnesofCO₂equivalent,accountingfor91percentoftheprovince’stotalemissions.SimilartoShanxi,aroundpercentofemissionsalongthecoalindustrychainoccurredduringthecoalprocessing,conversionandfinalconsumptionstages(Figure0-5).However,sectoralcompositionsdiffer.Powerandheatgenerationaccountedforasmallershare(46.3percent),whilecokingcontributedalargershare,atnearly27percentoftotalcoalchainemissions.Nota-around6.5percentofemissionscamefromcoal-to-oilandcoal-to-gasprocesses,thelatterofwhichisreferredtoinChinaasbeingpartoftheso-called“moderncoalchemicalmakingthissectorpriorityforcarbonreductioninShaanxi.PolicyrecommendationsThereport’scalculationsshowthatShanxiandShaanxifacecommonstructuralchallengesintheircoalindustrychainswhenitcomestocarbonreduction.AsChina’senergybasesandindustrypillars,bothprovincesareinurgentneedofacoor-dinatedandconsistentnational-leveldirectiontotransitionawayfromcoalindustries.Thisshouldbesupportedbydifferentiated,locallyanchoredsector-specificmeasures.Bothprovincesexhibitsignificantupstream-downstreamimbalances.downstreamsectorssteel,cement,chemicals)faceshrinkingdemandandstricterenergyaswellasupcomingcarboncontrolconstraints,upstreammin-ingremainsprofitableduetoenergysecuritypoli-cies,temptinglocalgovernmentstorelyonexpandedcoaloutputforGDPgrowthandfiscalrevenue.

However,thisapproachcarriesgrowingrisks:continueddownstreamweaknessmayleadtoinventorybuildup,financialstressandcascadingdebtrisksacrosssupplychains.Suchhigh-carbondependencemaydelaycleanenergydeploymentincreasesystemiceconomicrisks.Overthepastfiveyears,coalproductionandconsumptioninthetwocoal-producingprovinceshaveonceagainreachedrecordhighs.Lookingahead,theenergyandclimatepoliciesofShanxiandShaanxioverthenextfiveyearswillbedecisiveinmitigatingcarbonlock-inrisksandmanagingtransitioncosts.WiththeexpansionofChina’scarbonmarketcov-erageandtheestablishmentofthecarbondualcontrolmechanism,China’sclimategovernanceisincreasinglycharacterisedbymarket-basedmech-anismscombinedwithregulatoryconstraintsonCO2emissions.Thisframeworkallowscleanenergyconsumptiontocontinuegrowingwhilelimitingtheexpansionoffossilfueluse.ShanxiandShaanxiarewellpositionedtoleveragethisevolvingpolicyenvi-ronmenttoacceleratethelow-carbonandstrategictransformationoftheircoalindustries.Withaviewtothenational15thFYPbeginningin2026aswellastheregional15thFYPscheduleforformaladoptioninlate2026orearlyseveralpolicyrecommenda-tionscanhelpsupportstrongeralignment:Atthenationallevel:SetaquantifiednationalcarbonemissionscapbasedonChina’supdatedNationallyDeterminedContribution,andallocateitacrossprovincesandsectors.Setclearpeakinglevelsandtimelinesfornationalcoalproductionandcoalpowercapac-itytoguidelong-termplanningandinvestmentdecisions.Strictlycapnewconventionalcoalminingandpowerprojectstoreducestrandedassetrisksandminimisepost-2030transitioncosts.Attheprovinciallevel:Translatecarbonpeakingandneutralitygoalsintomeasurablecoalconsumptionandcarbonemissionindicatorstoensureaccountabilitypolicycoherence.AgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraEnergiewende–TransitioningcoalregionsinChina:evidencefromcoalindustrychainsinShanxiandShaanxiDevelopindustry-specificroadmapswithphasedtargetsaccompaniedbyquantitativeimpactassessmentsonjusttransitiondimen-sionssuchasemployment,workforceskillsandsocialprotection.Allocatenationalcarbondualcontrolindicatorsacrosscitiesandsectorsusingascientificanddifferentiatedapproach,settingtailoredreduc-tiontargetstoavoidauniform“one-size-fits-all”implementationmodel.Establishcarbonbudgetmanagementsystems,conductingannualemissiontrendanalysesandintegratingenergyandcarbonassessmentsinvestmentprojectapprovalstoensurealign-mentwithnationalclimateobjectives.Long-termdevelopmentrecommendationsMaintainingstrategicconsistencyisvitalamidglobalgeopoliticalvolatility.Whilerecenteventshavepromptedsomenationstotemporarilyincreaserelianceonfossilfuels,thesedevelopmentshaveonlymarginallyaffectedbroaderstructuraltrendsaroundcoal,whichisplateauinginAsiaandphasing-downforeconomicreasonsinotherregions.Short-termfluctuationsshouldnotbemistakenforareversalofthebroadercleantransitiontrend–neitherinChinanorglobally.Reducingdependenceonsingleexternalenergysources,expandingrenewables,modernis-ingpowersystemsandimprovingenergyefficiencyremainessentialcomponentsofChina’slong-termenergysecuritystrategy.Atthesametime,interna-tionalcooperation–aroundcriticalmineralsvaluechains,cleantechnologiesandgreenfinance–arecriticaltoachievingglobalclimategoals.AsChina’scarbondualcontrolframeworkevolves,significantstructuralchangesareexpectedtoreshapethecountry’senergysystems.Inthiscon-text,bydefiningthelong-termfunctionalrolesofenergy-producingprovinceslikeShanxiandwithinthe2060carbonneutralityframework,thecentralgovernmentcansupporttheirtransitionfrom“coalsupplycentres”togreenenergyandcleanmanufacturinghubs–integratingcleanpowersup-advancedmaterials,energyequipmentmanu-facturingandhydrogeninnovation.developing

long-termtransitionplans,includingcoalandcoalpowerphase-downtimelines,supportingindustrialandtechnologicalupgradingandimplementingjusttransitionmeasures,provincialgovernmentscanhelpminimisesocialandeconomicdisruptionsmaintainingworkforcestabilityandcommunitywell-being.研究背景必要性煤炭生产省在全国能源系统中的角色202439亿提高14.82025年四

省的煤炭产量总