重塑AI主权：通过战略投资实现竞争力路径（英）

Rethinking

AI

Sovereignty:

PathwaystoCompetitiveness

throughStrategic

InvestmentsW

H

IT

E

PA

P

E

RJA

N

UA

RY

2

0

2

6IncollaborationwithBain&CompanyAIGlobal

AllianceImages:AdobeStockContentsForeword

3Executivesummary

41

Investment

patternsacrosstheAIvaluechain51.1Historical

investments

intheAIvalue

chain61.2Investmenttrends

in

keyAIvaluechain

elements92

AI

infrastructureasthe

backbonefordrivingAIcompetitiveness112.1GlobalAI

infrastructure

investmenttrends122.2

AI

infrastructurechallengesandstrategicapproaches143

Different

pathstowardsAIcompetitiveness16Pathway

1:Fromselective

playerstoecosystem

builders21Pathway2:Fromadoptionacceleratorstoecosystem

builders22Pathway3:Fromemergingcollaboratorstoecosystem

buildersviaadoptionaccelerators22Pathway4:Fromemergingcollaboratorstoecosystem

buildersviaselective

players

24Pathway5:Fromemergingcollaboratorstoecosystem

builders244

Keyconsiderationsfor

policy-makers25Conclusion

27Contributors28Endnotes

30Rethinking

AI

Sovereignty2TheapproachThiswhite

paper,Rethinking

AISovereignty:PathwaystoCompetitivenessthroughStrategicInvestments,emergesfromtheWorld

EconomicForum

sAIGlobalAlliance

sworkonAIcompetitiveness,

incollaborationwith

Bain&Company.

It

buildsonthe

Forum

sJanuary2025

white

paper,BlueprintforIntelligentEconomies:

AI

CompetitivenessthroughRegionalCollaboration,

andwill

befollowed

bytargetedpublicationsdetailing

howto

builddifferentelementsofsovereignAIecosystemsandAIcompetitiveness.We

providea

newapproachtoAIsovereignty:onethat

prioritizesstrategiccontroland

resilience

over

rigidself-sufficiency,andexplores

howeconomiescanstrengthentheirAIcompetitivenessthroughdeliberate

investmentchoices,strategicAI

infrastructuredevelopment,andAIdeployment,

aswellastrusted

alliances.This

paper

isacalltoaction

to

shape

a

futurewhereAIsovereigntyservesas

a

shared

engine

of

growth,ensuringstrategiccontrolwhileenabling

all

economiesto

benefitfromtheadvancesofAI.We

invite

policy-makersand

business

leadersto

rethink

AIsovereigntyandjoin

us

inadvancingglobalAIcompetitiveness,empoweringeveryeconomyto

thrive

inthe

intelligentera.Artificial

intelligence

(AI)

is

rapidly

becomingthedefiningcapabilityofthe21st

century,

reshapingeconomies,

redrawing

industrial

boundariesandredefiningthe

natureofcompetitivenessandsovereignty

intheworld.

It

is

no

longerjustatechnology

butadriverof

productivity,

innovation

andgeopolitical

influence.

Economiesthat

buildstrongfoundationsand

makestrategic

investments

todaywilldefinethetrajectoryofthe

intelligenteconomyfordecadestocome.Why

now?What

beganasa

racefor

innovation

hasevolvedintoa

raceforAI

infrastructureeconomiesarecompetingtostrengthencontrol,

secureAIcompetitivenessanddeterminewhosetsthe

rules,

capturesvalueandsustains

long-termadvantage.

Whiledatacentrescontinueto

attract

a

significant

shareofAI

investments,

manyeconomiesaregrapplingwitha

morefundamentalquestion:

how

to

participate

meaningfully

inthisaccelerating

race.

Atthesametime,waitingforclarity

is

not

an

option.

Failingtoact

riskswideningAIand

economicgaps

between

markets.Atthiscriticaljuncture,

economies

must

rethinktheirapproachtoAIsovereigntyanddetermine

howto

investwisely.RethinkingAISovereignty:PathwaystoCompetitivenessthroughStrategic

InvestmentsForewordFlorian

MuellerSenior

Partner

and

Head,AI,

Insights&Solutions

forEurope,

Middle

East

andAfrica,

Bain&CompanyCathy

LiHead,Centre

for

AIExcellence;

Member

ofthe

ExecutiveCommittee,World

Economic

ForumRethinking

AI

Sovereignty3January2026Invest

wisely–not

everywhere–

andwithalong-termvisionDecisions

made

inthe

nextfewyearswillshape

whoremainsor

becomescompetitive

in

anAI-driveneconomy.

Policy-makerscanenable

AIcompetitivenessbypromotingfocus

andcollaboration,notfullcontrol.Thismeans

policy-

makersshouldcoordinatewithinvestors

andotherstakeholdersto:–Identifystrengthsand

nationaladvantages

thatcantranslate

intoAIcapabilities.–Investstrategically,concentratingonareasofcomparativeadvantage

ratherthanspreading

resourcesacrosstheentireAIvalue

chain.–Ensure

interoperable

AI

infrastructure

toguaranteescalability,trustand

resilience.–Partnerstrategically,tappingintoalliancestofillcriticalgaps

instead

ofduplicatingcostlyefforts.DifferentpathstocompetitivenessEveryeconomyjoinstheAI

racefroma

differentstarting

point.While

infrastructure-basedAIsovereignty

isoutofreachfor

most

economies,therearedifferent

pathstoAIcompetitiveness.This

paperdescribesseveral

potential

paths,tailoredto

differenteconomicstarting

pointsontheAIjourney.Thebottom

linePolicy-makers

mustsupportthedevelopmentofintentional

nationalAIstrategiesthatfocusinvestmentsonthecomparativeadvantagesoftheir

economy.Theyshould

help

reframeAIsovereignty

asstrategic

interdependence,where

localizedinvestmentsarecombinedwithtrusted

partnerships

andalliances.Withaclearviewoftheirlocalstrengths,economiescan

leapfrogtowardsAIsuccess.Partnership,

notownership,

isa

key

pathforward.AIsovereignty

isemergingasone

key

elementoflong-termcompetitiveness.AIsovereignty

refers

totheabilityofeconomiestoshape,

deploy

andgovernAIecosystemsinaccordancewiththeirown

values,whilstensuringstrategicandoperationalcontrol,flexibilityand,

ultimately,

resiliencethrough

acombinationoflocalized

investmentandtrustedinternationalcollaboration.

In

practice,AIsovereignty

agendasreflecteconomies’strategicprioritiestostrengthenAIcapabilities,aimingto

reducedependenceonforeignentities,protect

national

interestsandenhancecompetitiveness.Several

economieshavethereforeattemptedtocompete

byowningtheentireAIvaluechain,from

rawmaterialstoAI-basedapplications.Basedon

investment

patterns,

however,“AIsovereignty”has

beenconflatedwith

“AIinfrastructure”anddatacentres.WhileAIinfrastructure

isa

pressingconcernforgovernments

placing

big

betsonAI,

it

is

nottheonly

decidingfactor.AIcompetitivenessdependsequally

onwhereeconomies

invest,

howthey

buildanddeploy

AIcapabilities,andwhothey

partnerwithacrosstheAIvalue

chain.This

paperadvocatesfora

redefinedapproachto

AIsovereignty–onethat

prioritizesstrategic

control

and

resilienceover

rigidself-sufficiency.Success

in

theAIerawill

bedetermined

not

by

isolation,

butbystrategic

interdependence–

balancingdomestic

investment

in

keyAI

infrastructurewith

international

collaboration.

Economiesthatfocusontheircomparativeadvantages,ensure

interoperability

acrossAIsystemsandcultivate

regional

alliances

will

be

best

positionedtocapture

long-termvalue

fromtheAI

revolution.ExecutivesummaryInthe

raceforAIcompetitiveness,economiesmustpursueAI

infrastructure,

interoperability,

policyand

partnerships

to

build

lastingcompetitiveadvantages.Rethinking

AI

Sovereignty4AIecosystemAIvaluechainFoundationalinputs(e.g.electricity,

rawmaterials

likesilicon)Key

enablers*Enablingtechnology(e.g.devices,connectivity,cybersecurity)AI

policiesNote:*Enablers

are

interdependent;order

does

not

represent

any

priority.Investmentpatternsacross

the

AI

value

chainDrivingAIcompetitiveness

requiresathorough

understandingofinvestmentflows,trendsand

capitalallocationacrosstheAIvalue

chain.strengthdepends

notonlyonthe

robustness

ofindividualenablers

butalsoon

how

effectivelythey

reinforceoneanother.

Economiesshouldtherefore

be

mindfulofthe

needforclosecoordinationamongenablersand

remainadaptive,as

new

ones

will

inevitablyemergeand

reshapetheAIecosystem

giventhe

rapidtechnological

progress.Asoutlined

inBlueprintforIntelligentEconomies:AICompetitivenessthroughRegionalCollaboration,

theAIecosystemencompassesAIvaluechainelementsand

keyenablerswhichallowAI

to

bedeveloped,deployedandscaled.

Putting

peopleat

thecentreofthisecosystem

unlocks

productivity,

jobcreation,

innovationandgrowth.

However,

itstowardsAIsovereignty.

Forexample,the

UKhaspledgedtobecome“anAImaker,

notjustanAItaker”1

whileChinahasprioritizedthe

development

andadoptionofdomesticAIchips,2

andtheEuropean

Unionhascommittedtomobilize

€200

billion

toInvestAI,an

initiativeto

build“AIgigafactories”.3UnderstandingthecurrentandfuturedynamicsofAI

investments

isessentialto

building

robustAIecosystems(see

Figure

1)andstrengtheningAIsovereignty.Aroundtheworld,economiesaremaking

majorfinancialcommitmentstoadvancedomesticcapabilities,oftenannouncingtheseasmovementsAverage

annual

growth

in

AI

investments(2010–2024):approximately33%Infrastructure

(e.g.compute,datacentres)Fundamental

R&D

andinnovationHardwareinputs

(e.g.semi-conductors)1TheAIecosystemRethinking

AI

Sovereignty5Applications

andservicesAdoptionenablementTalentand

skillsFoundation

modelsFIGURE

1AIstrategyCapital

accessDataHistorical

investments

across

the

AI

value

chain,*2010–2024,in

$billions900–1,300Technology600–900Remaining

industries200–300100–200Applications

andservicesNote:*Investmentestimatesarebasedoncapital

and

R&D

spending

across

electricity

capacity,

silicon

processing,

equipment

and

chipmanufacturing,datacentres,foundationmodeltraining,andAIapplication

development

by

majortechnologyfirms,

aswell

as

corporateinvestments

in

AI

initiatives

for

other

industries

and

the

market

size

of

data-related

solutions.

Land-related

investments

are

excluded.Source:

Public

sources

from

WEF;

IMF;

IEA;

IRENA;

USGS;

NRMMRRD;Goldman

Sachs;World

Bank;

WHO;

IATA;Gartner;S&P

Global;OpenAI;

Epoch

AI;Cushman&Wakefield;

Bain&

Company;

Market

Research.AI

infrastructureand

hardwaredemand

isexpected

to

riseevenfurtheraseconomies

pursue

domestic

controloverdatacentresand

critical

inputs

suchas

processors.Theworldcould

have

nearly2,000

hyperscaledatacentres

by2030–

a

sharp

increase

fromthe300thatexisted

in20164

and

1,136that

existtoday.5The

USandChinadominate

the

investmentlandscape,capturingabout65%of

aggregateglobal

investment

intheAIvaluechain

(Figure3).

Theiroutsized

presence

ineveryelement

ofthe

AIvaluechain

reflectsafull-stackapproachthat

feweconomiescan

match,giventhe

scale

ofinvestment

needed.Todate,morethanhalfofglobalAI-relatedinvestment

hasbeendirectedtowardsAIinfrastructure,

aswell

asapplicationsandservices(Figure

2).

InvestmentinAI-dedicatedinfrastructure–suchasdata

centre1.1

Historical

investments

in

the

AI

value

chainAIinfrastructure,aswellasapplicationsandservices,has

attractedmostglobalinvestmentsintheAIvaluechaincapacityequippedtohostadvancedAIworkloads

–hasbeena

majorfocus,attracting

more

than$600billionbetween2010

and

2024.Rethinking

AI

Sovereignty6FoundationalinputsFoundation

modelsFIGURE2HardwareinputsInfrastructure200–300150–250DataYetthis

is

nottheonly

pathtoAIcompetitiveness.

Balancedandtargeted

plays

have

helpedsomeeconomiesturncapital

intodeepcomparativestrengthsandresilience.

Forexample,Singapore

has

takena

balancedapproach,

intentionallyallocating

resources

ina

measuredwayacrosstheAIvaluechain

(casestudy

1).Similarly,South

Korea

hasinitiallyconcentratedtheirinvestmentsin

hardware

elements

likechips

(Figure4)and

is

expandingeffortsacrossfoundation

models6

andapplications.7Notes:*Taiwan

Semiconductor

Manufacturing

Company;**United

Microelectronics

Corporation;***Including

Brazil,

Canada,

Japan,

Korea,

the

United

ArabEmirates,the

UK,and

all

other

economies

except

where

“rest

of

world”is

shown

separately.Source:

Public

sources

from

WEF;

IMF;

IEA;

IRENA;

USGS;

NRMMRRD;Goldman

Sachs;World

Bank;WHO;

IATA;Gartner;S&P

Global;

OpenAI;

Epoch

AI;Cushman&Wakefield;

Bain&Company;

Market

Research.Historical

investments

across

the

AI

value

chain

split

by

economy,2010–2024,in$

billions100–200200–300600–900150–250200–300900–1,300100%Economiescanthereforeaccrue

measuredadvantages

by

positioningthemselves

insectors

alongtheAIvaluechainwherethey

can

scaledemand.Toassessthesuccessof

investments,

leadersshouldconsideradoptionand

outcomes,

includingaspectsofresilience,

notjust

moneydeployedor

returned.Cumulative

AI

infrastructure

investment

since2010:morethan$600

billion RestofworldUSChina●Europe(excludingUK).IndiaSingapore.Remainingeconomies***The

US

and

China

are

the

largest

investors

across

the

AI

value

chain口

Top

investingeconomies

perAIvaluechainelement80%60%40%20%0Hardware

inputs~90%drivenbyTSMC*andUMC**Rethinking

AI

Sovereignty7ApplicationsandservicesFoundationalinputsFoundation

modelsInfrastructureFIGUREData3USSingaporeKoreaChinaUnitedArab

EmiratesJapanCanadaUKRest

of

worldIndiaEurope(excluding

UK)BrazilShareofaggregateglobalAIinvestmentbytheUS

and

China:approximately65%Note:*TaiwanSemiconductor

ManufacturingCompany;**United

MicroelectronicsCorporation.Source:PublicsourcesfromWEF;

IMF;

IEA;

IRENA;USGS;NRMMRRD;Goldman

Sachs;World

Bank;WHO;

IATA;Gartner;S&PGlobal;OpenAI;

EpochAI;Cushman

&Wakefield;

Bain

&Company;

Market

Research.3.4一5.1%3.1一4.6%2.2一3.3%

1.7一2.6%

1.5一2.3%

1.5一2.2%

1.5一2.2%

1.4一2.0%

1.2一1.9%

1.2一1.8%

1.1一1.6%

0.7一1.1%BenchmarkofhistoricalinvestmentsacrosstheAIvaluechain:Accumulated

investments,2010–2024,

in

%of2024grossdomestic

product

(GDP)口

Outperforming

economies

in

select

AI

value

chain

elements0.00.51.0

1.52.02.53.03.54.04.5Approximately90%

ofinvestmentsinhardware

inputs

drivenbyTSMC*and

UMC**EconomieshavepursueddifferentinvestmentstrategiesRethinkingAISovereignty

8Applications

and

servicesFoundationalinputsFoundation

modelsHardwareinputsInfrastructureFIGUREData4FoundationalinputsCrucialfoundational

inputsforAI

includeenergy,raw

materials

(e.g.siliconand

rareearth

elements)

and

land.Since2010,energy

and

raw

materialshaveattractedover$100

billion

in

investment–withthevast

majoritydirectedtowardsenergysystems

poweringdatacentres,whoseelectricityconsumption

has

reached

1–2%ofglobaldemand.8

AlthoughAIcan

improveenergyefficiency,

it

hasthusfarcontributedto

risingelectricitydemand

(see

theWorld

Economic

Forum’s2025white

paper,ArtificialIntelligence’sEnergyParadox:Balancing

ChallengesandOpportunities).This

increasealso

ledtodebateson

reviving

nuclear

powerandnet-zerovs.fullAI

potentialgoals.AforthcomingreportonoptimizingAIand

hyperscaledata

centres

forenergyefficiencywill

be

launchedahead

ofthe

Forum’s2026convening

inSaudiArabia,

informing

future

regionalenergy

policy.Investments

infoundational

inputswill

keepgrowing

but

remain

limited

relativetothe

restoftheAIvalue

chain,

reachingapproximately$50

billion

peryearby2030.

Policy-makersshould

help

integratethese

foundational

inputswith

broaderAI

infrastructureinvestmentstosupportsustainableAIsystems’growth(seetheWorld

Economic

Forum’s

recentpublicationFromParadoxtoProgress:

ANetPositive

AIEnergyFramework).Chapter2examines

the

rolethese

inputs

play

inenablingAI

hardware

and

infrastructure.HardwareinputsSince2010,investmentsin

hardware

havesurpassed$200billion,led

bycapital

expenditurefromsemiconductorfoundries,alongsidecontributionsfromlithographyequipmentmakersandfablesschipsuppliers.Withapproximately90%ofglobalfoundryrevenueconcentratedinfourcompanies–TaiwanSemiconductorManufacturingCompany(TSMC),UnitedMicroelectronicsCorporation(UMC),SamsungFoundryandSemiconductorManufacturingInternationalCorporation(SMIC)–whichare

based

acrossthreeeconomies,9

akey

part

ofthe

debateonAIsovereigntyisonthe

high

geographicalconcentrationofhardwareproduction.

Hardwareinvestmentisprojectedtogrow

by

15–25%annually,

reachingalmost$90billion

peryear

by2030.InfrastructureAI

infrastructure

hasexpanded

rapidlyasorganizations

have

built

initialcapacityandscaled

tosupportfoundationmodel

providersandgenerativeAIworkloads.10

Investment

isforecasted

to

increaseat

10–15%annually,

reachingover$400

billion

peryear

by2030,withtotalvendorfinancing

acrosschipmakers,

modeldevelopersanddataservice

providersexpectedto

beeven

higher.While

business

modelsarevery

integrated,withhyperscalerscoveringasignificantpart

oftheAIvaluechain,theAIinfrastructuredevelopment

islargelyfragmentedacrosstheglobe.The

USholds

over40%ofinstalledglobal

data

centre

capacity,11

whilemanyemergingeconomiesare

still

establishing

reliableconnectivityanddigital

infrastructure.DataInvestors’

focus

isshiftingtowardsdata,

mirroring

a

markettrendofmigratingdata

to

hyperscalers.Cumulative

investment

indata-relatedsolutions

isestimatedatover$150

billion,

reflecting

strong

growthafter2018.12,13

By

2030,

investment

isexpectedtoexceed$90

billion

peryear.Thisincludestrainingdatasetsforfoundation

models

anddatasolutionsthatsupport

applicationsandservices(e.g.

integration,governance,

migration,

marketplaces).AI

performanceandcompetitiveness

hingeonthe

size,diversity,

uniqueness,

recencyandoverallqualityofcurateddata,

aswell

as

its

integrity

and

availability.

Meta’s

multi-billion-dollar

investment

in

ScaleAI

underscoresthestrategicvalueofdata.Thistrendextends

beyondadvancedeconomies,

offeringemergingeconomiesopportunitiesto

build

competitiveadvantages.FoundationmodelsFoundation

model

investment

is

projectedtogrow

25–35%annually,

reachingat

least$300

billion

per

year

by2030.Thisgrowth

is

driven

by

the

risingcomplexityof

large

language

models

(LLMs)andthecontinuinggrowthof

classical

machine

learning

(ML)andsmall

language

models

(SLMs).1.2

AIinfrastructure

hasexpandedrapidlyasorganizationshave

builtinitialcapacity

andscaledtosupportfoundation

modelprovidersandgenerativeAIworkloads.Projected

annual

investment

in

AI

applications

by2030:approximately$1.5trillionInvestment

trends

in

key

AI

value

chain

elementsRethinking

AI

Sovereignty9US-based

providerssuchasAnthropicandOpenAI

havecollectively

raised

morethan$85

billion,14,15mostofit

inthe

pasttwoyears.

Outside

the

US,

firmssuchas

DeepSeek,

MistralAIand

others

acrossAsia,

Europeandthe

Middle

Eastarealsodevelopingopen-sourceand

proprietarymodelstailoredto

local

languageandculture–

withsubstantial

returnsexpectedasthey

scale.Their

investmentswillalsogeneratedemandforapplicationsandshapetheAIecosystemevolution.ApplicationsandservicesIn

personalcomputing,value

hasshiftedfromhardwaretosoftware.

Inthe

mobileera,valuemovedfromdevicestoapps.As

history

repeats,

investments

intheAIvaluechainareexpected

to

movetowardsAI-basedapplicationsandservices.Annual

investment

inAIapplicationscould

reach

$1.5trillion

peryear

by2030,outpacinggrowthinAI

infrastructureandfoundation

modelsanddeliveringgreatereconomicvaluethroughdomain-specific

usecases.

Forexample,adoption

inhealthcareapplicationscould

reducespendingby5–10%16

withoutsacrificingquality.Similarly,AIcouldfree

upapproximately8%

of

public

sector

budgets

by2030.17

Economiesthateffectivelychannel

investment

into

high-impactapplications

and

buildsupportiveAIecosystemswillsecure

the

largestgains.Thus,global

investment

hassurgedacrosstheAI

valuechain,

butAIcompetitivenessdepends

onhowstrategicallyeconomiesallocatecapital,

not

just

how

muchtheyspend.Chapter2

exploresthe

pivotal

roleofAI

infrastructureasthe

backboneof

theAIvaluechain

in

more

detail.Rethinking

AI

Sovereignty10Globalinvestmenttrends,suchas:nD

SignificantincreaseinAIinfrastructure

investments NewfinancingmodelsforAIinfrastructure(e.g.

partnership-driven

models)nD

Riseofneocloudprovider

investmentswithtailoredAItraininganddeploymentofferingsDefiningtheAIinfrastructureoptionspaceandderivingstrategicimplicationsAIinfrastructureasthe

backbonefordriving

AIcompetitivenessPolicy-makersshouldfacilitate

investment

in

resilientAI

infrastructure,consideringtrends,barriersandstrategic

implications.AIinfrastructureunderpinsfoundation

modelsandapplicationsandtherebydrivesAIcompetitiveness,

attractsforeigninvestmentsandenablesthe

broader

growthofintelligentsystems.Itspans

interdependent

layers

includingdatacentres,compute

resources,cloudplatforms,edgesystemsand

high-capacityconnectivitynetworks.AIecosystemreadinessdependson

howeffectivelythese

layers

interoperate

tosupportbothtrainingand

inference,

enablinglarge-scaledataprocessinganddeployment.Within

thisecosystem,datacentres

remainthe

primaryinvestmentfocus,deliveringscalablecomputefor

trainingclustersand

inferenceoperations.Today,AI

isdrivingoneofthe

largest

infrastructure

buildouts

in

modern

history–a

multi-trillion-dollarexpansionspanningchips,datacentresand

energy

systems.To

navigatethis,economies

must

pairglobalAI

infrastructure

investmenttrendswiththeir

localconstraints,

barriersandenablers.Thisdefines

eacheconomy’s“AIinfrastructureoption

space”

and

supports

resilient

investmentchoices(see

Figure5). Land,energyandwaterascriticalconstraintsforscalingAI

infrastructurewithintheeconomy AIinfrastructurerequiringa

highlyskilled

workforce LocalregulationslowingdownAI

infrastructure

developmentUnderstandinganeconomy’sAIinfrastructureoptionstodriveAIcompetitivenessAspectsinfluencingAIinfrastructureoptions(notexhaustive)Local

barriers

to

address,such

as:2Rethinking

AI

Sovereignty11FIGURE5Source:Adapted

from

Citi

Research2025.Surgingdemandforcompute

isspawning

newAI

infrastructuredevelopment

models,suchasneocloud

providers,

nationalcloud

providersandindustry-specificAIclouds.While

hyperscalersoffer

global

reachandfull-servicecloudecosystems,neoc