高盛-亚洲聚焦：中国成品油零售价格调控的成本适中并且具有可持续性（摘要）-20260605

2026年6月5日|9:36AMHKTn为缓解全球能源供应冲击，中国决策层采取了多管内价格、实施出口临时禁令和多元化进口来源，与以往做法基突爆发以来，中国政府已通过成品油定价机制这一核心举措将导率限制在了一半左右。这在一定程度上保护了国内经济，但+852-3966-4004|lisheng.wang@n中国通过成品油价格形成机制来管理国内零售价格，以40美元/桶（地板价）-130美元/桶（天花板价）的国际原油价格区间作为调整锚定点。具价跌破40美元/桶时，成品油零售价格冻结、不予下调，盈余部分将划归风险准备金。而国际油价超过130美元/桶也将触发零售价冻结，政府对炼油企业提供补贴。在此区间之内，当国际油价低于80美元/桶时，实行完全传导；当价格高于80n历史模式表明，布伦特原油价格每上涨10%，国内汽油和柴油价格上涨约5%，具体涨幅因产品和价格水平而异。鉴于近几个月布伦特原油价格在80-130美元/桶区间波动，传导率预计将略低于历史均值，体现了发改委近期采取格干预措施。我们的估算还表明，历史上中国国内成品油零售价格每上涨10%对应国内成品油零售销量下降约5%。n自中东冲突爆发以来，2026年3-4月，国内成品油平均零售价同比上涨了17%，而零售销量同比下降了17%。这意味着需求响应超过历史弹性，可能是因为现在的替代方案（例如非油气能源供应和快速普及的电动汽车等）n我们认为，中国的油价干预措施具备财政可控性。据我们然适中，年化成本约相当于GDP的0.3%，并且可以通过库存估值收益和上游盈利能力提升得到进一步缓解。这表明，如果国际价格继续在近期投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息/research/hedge.html。CostofChina’sRetailFuelPriceManagementModestandSustainableTomitigatetheglobalenergysupplyshocktriggeredbytheMiddleEastconfiictandtheclosureoftheStraitofHormuz,Chinesepolicymakershaveimplementedamulti-prongedresponseencompassingdomesticpriceinterventions,temporaryexportrestrictions,andimportdiversification,broadlyinlinewiththeirpastpractice.AtthecoreisapricingmechanismoverseenbytheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission(NDRC),China’stopeconomicplanner.SinceMarch2026,theNDRChaspartiallyinsulateddomesticretailfuelpricesfrominternationalvolatilitybypermittingonlyaroundhalfofglobaloilpriceincreasestobepassedthrough(图表1).Thesemeasuresentailcosts,asmajorstate-ownedrefinerssuchasSinopecandPetroChinaarerequiredtoabsorbmargincompression,andthegovernmentmayneedtoprovidesubsidieswheninternationalpricesexceedcertainthresholds.Inthisnote,weexplainChina’sdomesticretailoilproductpricingmechanism,quantifythepass-throughfrominternationalcrudepricechangestodomesticretailpricesandconsumption,andestimatethegovernmentcostsforoilpriceinterventions.China’soilpriceinterventionsappearfiscallymanageable,inourview.Weestimatethatgovernmentinterventioncostsremainmodest–below0.3%ofGDPannualized–andcouldbefurthermitigatedbyinventoryvaluationgainsandstrongerupstreamprofitability.Beyonddirectpriceintervention,Chinahasalsoactedonthesupplysidebytemporarilytighteningexportsofrefinedoilproducts–includinggasoline,diesel,andjetfuel–aswellasselectedby-productssuchassulphuricacid(akeyinputforfertilizersandcoppermining).Atthesametime,ithassignificantlyincreasedoilimportsfromRussiaandLatinAmericatopartiallyoffsetthesharpdeclineinMiddleEastsupply,1whiledrawingonpreviouslyaccumulatedinventoriestoalleviatenear-termshortages.Basedonourestimates,totaloilimportvolumefell11%yoyinMarch-April,asa38%yoycontractioninimportsfromtheMiddleEastmorethanoffsetthegainsfromRussiaandLatinAmerica(+13%yoyand+64%yoy,respectively;图表2).OurGlobalCommoditiesStrategyteam’shigh-frequency-trackerpointedtoasharperdropinChina’scrudeoilimportsinMay.ThegovernmentisalsousingtheshocktoaccelerateChina’slong-termshifttowardenergyindependence.Policysupportforthe“NewThree”industries–electricvehicles,lithium-ionbatteries,andsolarproducts–hasbeenstrengthened,reducingtheeconomy’slong-termexposuretofossil-fuelpricejumps.Refiectingthisshift,thepenetrationratioofnewenergyvehicles(NEVs)–measuredastheshareofNEVintotalautosales–rosefrom1%in2016to54%in2025,andincreasedfurtherto63%inMay2026,accordingtodatafromtheChinaPassengerCar1Netimportsaccountedfor68%ofChina’sdomesticoilconsumptionin2025,basedonourGlobalCommoditiesStrategyteam’stracking.2026年6月5日22026年6月5日3Association(CPCA).DuringtheLaborDayholidaythisyear(1-5May),highwayEVchargingdemandjumped52.8%yoy,meaningfullyoutpacingpassengertripsviaroads(+3.5%yoy).Withinroadstransportation,passengerfiowsviapublictransportationservicesgained9.5%yoy,whileself-drivingtripsonlyrose2.6%yoy.Thesehighlightedtheelasticityofoildemandamidhigheroilprices,withEVusageandpublictransportationreplacingtraditionalInternalCombustionEngine(ICE)carsamidhigheroilprices.图表1:DomesticretailfuelpriceshaverisenlessthanBrentcrudeoilpricessincethestartoftheMiddleEastconfiict资料来源：HaverAnalytics,高盛全球投资研究部图表2:IncreasedimportsfromRussiaandLatinAmericahavepartiallyoffsetfallingMiddleEastsupply资料来源：ChinaCustoms,万得,高盛全球投资研究部HowChina’sdomesticretailoilproductpricingframeworkworksChina’sdomesticretailoilproductspricingframeworkusesaceilingmechanismtoshieldthedomesticeconomyfromextremeglobalvolatility(图表3).WheninternationalcrudepricesreachorexceedUSD130/bbl,theNDRCtypicallysuspendsretailpriceincreasestoprotectconsumers,withtheresultinglossesabsorbedthroughgovernmenttransferstomajorstate-ownedrefiners.Theframeworkiscomplementedbyafuel-pricelinkagesystemthatprovidestargetedsupporttoessentialandprice-sensitivesectorssuchasagricultureandpublictransportoncedomesticpricescrossspecifiedthresholds.Conversely,wheninternationalpricesfallbelowUSD40/bbl,afioormechanismapplies.Ratherthanallowingrefinerstoretainthewindfallfromunchangedretailprices,thesurplusisdirectedtoastate-managedRiskReserveFund.Thefundisearmarkedforstrategicuses,includingenergyconservationandemissionsreduction,fuel-qualityupgradestomeethighernationalstandards,andmeasurestostrengthenenergysecurity.WheninternationalpricesfallbetweenthefioorofUSD40/bblandtheceilingofUSD130/bbl,USD80/bblservesasanadditionalthreshold.BelowUSD80/bbl,theNDRCallowsfullpass-throughtodomesticretailprices.AboveUSD80/bbl,itpermitsonlypartialpass-throughofthecalculatedincreaseandrequiresrefinerstoabsorbpartoftheshockthroughlowerprocessingmargins.Althoughthesepriceinterventionsdonotinvolvedirectcashtransferstoconsumers,theyremainanimportantpolicytoolforstabilizingdomesticprices2026年6月5日4duringsevereglobalenergy-supplyshocks.Inaddition,theNDRC’sreferencepriceisnottiedtoasinglebenchmark.Instead,itisbasedonaweightedbasketofinternationalcrudeprices.Whiletheexactweightsarenotdisclosedtoavoidmarketspeculation,industryconsensus,includingsourcesquotedbyCCTV,identifiesBrent,Dubai,andMinasasthemaincomponents.图表3:AnillustrationofChina’sdomesticretailoilproductpricingframeworkTheimpactofglobaloilpricechangesondomesticretailmarketsChangesininternationalcrudepricesareonlypartiallytransmittedtoChina’sdomesticretailfuelprices.Ourtimeseriesregressionsbasedonmonthlydatafrom2017-26suggestthatevery10%increaseinBrentcrudepricewouldraisedomesticgasolineanddieselpricesbyaround5%(图表4).Thepass-throughrateisgenerallylowerwhenBrentpricesareclosertotheceilingorfioorthanwhentheyarewithinamorenormalrange(alsoseeourearlierstudieshereandhereformoreanalysesonthepass-throughimpact).GiventhatBrentcrudehasfiuctuatedwithintheUSD80-130/bblrangeinrecentmonths,thepass-throughrateisexpectedtoremainmodestlybelowitshistoricalaverage,refiectingrecentdiscretionarypriceinterventionsbytheNDRC.2026年6月5日5图表4:Every10%increaseinBrentcrudepricewouldraisedomesticgasolineanddieselpricesbyaround5%Sampleperiod:2017M1-2026M5DependentvariablesLog(GasolinePrice)Log(DieselPrice)ExplanatoryvariablesLog(Brentoilprice)0.540.550.490.490.500.780.460.31(16.44)***(5.51)***(13.80)***(5.07)***(8.73)***(9.80)***(7.57)***(5.03)***Log(USDCNY)0.750.640.600.42(4.36)(6.56)***(1.78)*(2.89)***(5.04)***(3.98)***(5.11)***(1.64)Constant-0.281.02-1.445.48(1.63)(3.17)***(1.30)(5.23(-0.21)(0.82)(-0.91)(3.87)***#observationsAdjustedR-squared0.880.660.870.400.860.780.850.46Note:T-statsinrobuststandarderrorsarereportedinparentheses;***,**,*denotesstatisticalsignificanceat1%,5%,and10%levels,respectively.WeuseBrentoilpriceatUSD70/bblandUSD100/bblascut-offlevelstodivideourfull-sample,withsufficientnumberofobservationsforsub-sampleregressions.USD70/bblandUSD100/bblhavethesameabsolutedistancetotheirneighboringinterventionthresholds(USD40/bblandUSD130/bbl, respectively).BrentpricesbetweenUSD80/bblandUSD130/bblrefertotherangeinrecentmonths,thoughthesamplesizeissmallerthanotherregressions. Pass-throughratesdifferacrossrefinedoilproductsdependingonthedegreeofadministrativepricingcontrol,end-demandconditions,andmarketstructure.Gasolineanddieseltogetheraccountedfor46%ofChina’stotaloilproductconsumptionin2025(图表5),whichmeanstheNDRC-controlledsegmentcoverslessthanhalfofalloilproducts.ForotherproductssuchasLPG,naphtha,andfueloil,refinersgenerallyhavegreaterfiexibilitytopassthroughchangesininternationalpricestodownstreambuyers.Accordingly,theweightedaveragepass-throughrateacrossalloilproductsshouldbehigherthanthearound0.5thatweestimatedongasolineanddieselprices.TheNBSmeasureofretailsalesforgasolineandotheroilproductsbyenterprisesabovethedesignatedsizecapturessalesbythe“BigThree”state-ownedoilgiants(i.e.,Sinopec,PetroChina,CNOOC)andasmallnumberoflargeprivatefirms.2ComparedwiththebroaderNDRCmeasureofapparentoilproductconsumption,theNBSseriesexcludessalesbysmallergasstations,directsuppliestoindustryandconstruction,aswellasaviationandshippingsales.WeestimatethatNBSretailsalesvolumeofgasolineandotheroilproductsaccountedforroughly75%ofNDRCapparentoilproductconsumptioninrecentyears(图表6).2TheNBSdefined“enterprisesatorabovethedesignatedsize”refertowholesaleenterpriseswithanannualmainbusinessincomeofRMB20mnandabove,retailenterpriseswithanannualmainbusinessincomeofRMB5mnandabove,andaccommodationandcateringenterpriseswithanannualmainbusinessincomeofRMB2mnandabove.Retailsalesofgasolineandotheroilproductsbyenterprisesatorabovethedesignatedsizerefertothe“retailsales”partbytheabove-mentionedentities.2026年6月5日6图表5:GasolineanddieseltogetheraccountedforlessthanhalfofChina’sdomesticoilproductconsumptionin2025Chinaoilconsumptionbreakdownbymajoroilproductcategory(involumeterms,2025)Jet/OtherKerosene5%ine%FuelJet/OtherKerosene5%ine%OtherProducOtherProduc14%Naphtha14%esel/Gasoil23%Gasol23tsLPG17%资料来源：WoodMackenzie,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表6:NBSoilproductretailsalesvolumeaccountedforaround75%ofNDRCoilproductapparentconsumptioninrecentyearsOilproductconsumptionvolumeOilproductconsumptionvolumeNDRCoilproductapparentconsumptionNBSoilproductretailsalesbyfirmsatorabovethedesignatedsizeNBSas%ofNDRC(RHS)0141516171819202122232425mnton%806040200500400300200NBSoilproductretailsalesvolumeisbasedonGSestimatesusingtheweightedaverageofdomesticrefinedoilprices.资料来源：国家发改委,万得,CEIC,高盛全球投资研究部Recentgovernmentinterventionstoreduceglobaloilpricepass-throughSincetheMiddleEastconfiictthatbeganfromend-February,theNDRChasadjusteddomesticretailoilproductpricesseventimesasofearlyJune,includingfiveincreasesandtwocuts(图表7).Duringthetwolargesthikes,on23Marchand7April,theauthoritycappedtheincreaseatroughlyhalfthelevelimpliedbythestandardpricingformula,withtheinterventioncostabsorbedbystate-ownedrefinersthroughreducedprocessingmargins.Acrossallthesevenadjustments,weestimatethattheNDRChaspassedthrougharoundhalfoftheincreaseininternationalcrudepricestodomesticretailoilprices(astheactualcumulativeincreaseindomesticfuelpricessinceMarchis47%lessthanmodelimplied).2026年6月5日7图表7:AsummaryofNDRCadjustmentstodomesticretailoilproductpricessincethestartoftheMiddleEastconfiict(asofearlyJune)Adjustment21Apr2026Alarger-than-normalcontractionindomesticoilconsumptionHigherretailpricesweighonenddemand.UsingmonthlydatafromJanuary2015toApril2026,weestimatethatevery10%increaseinChina’sdomesticretailoilpricesisassociatedwitharound5%declineindomesticoilproductretailsalesvolume(图表8).However,sincethestartoftheMiddleEastconfiict,domesticoilproductretailsalesvolumefell17%yoyinMarch-April2026,whileaverageretailpricesgained17%yoy,basedonourestimates(图表9).Thisimpliesalargerdemandresponsethanhistoricalpatternswouldsuggest,likelybecausealternativessuchasnon-fossilenergysupply,rapidEVadoption,andurbanpublictransportationarenowmorewidelyavailablethaninearlieroil-priceupcycles.图表8:Forevery10%domesticretailoilpriceincrease,China’sdomesticoilproductretailsalesvolumewoulddeclinebyaround5%OiOilprductsretailsalesvolumegrowth(%yoy)-40-20020406080Oilproductsaverageretailsalespricechange(%yoy)4030200-10-20-30Oilproductsretailsalesvolumevs.prices(monthly)y=-0.52x+4.45R²=0.64Mar2026Apr2026Jan-Feb2020OursampleperiodincludesJanuary2015–April2026.资料来源：国家发改委,万得,CEIC,高盛全球投资研究部图表9:Domesticretailoilproductsalesvolumecontractedby17%yoyduringMarch-Aprilwhereasretailpricesgained17%%/pp%/ppyoy%/ppyoy606050Volume5040Price40Value3030202000-10-10-20-20-30-30-40-40151617181920212223242526Gasolineandotheroilproductsretailsalesvaluegrowthandbreakdown资料来源：国家统计局,万得,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年6月5日8Governmentinterventioncostappearsmodestandsustainable...Inacounterfactualscenariowithinternationalpriceincreasesfullypassedthroughtodomesticretailpricesbutnochangetodomesticoilconsumption,weestimatethatweightedaverageretailfuelpricesinMarch-April2026wouldhavebeen15%higherthanobserved.Onanannualizedbasis,thegapindomesticoilconsumptionvaluebetweenthiscounterfactualscenarioandtheactualoutcomewouldbearoundRMB400bn,equivalentto0.3%of2026nominalGDP.BecauseJanuary-Februarywasnotyetaffectedbytheglobalenergy-supplyshock,thefull-year2026interventioncostshouldbelower,atroughly25bpofGDP.ThesenumbersareverysmallrelativetoourforecastsforChina’seffectiveandaugmentedfiscaldeficitsthisyear(5.3%and12.0%ofGDP,respectively),suggestingthatthebroadgovernmentsectorcancomfortablyabsorbtheinterventioncostifinternationalpricescontinuetofiuctuatewithintherecentrange....andcouldbeoffsetbyotherbuffersThatsaid,wedonotexpecttheinterventioncosttofullyfallonthegovernmentandtherefiningsector,becausepartofitshouldbeoffsetbyotherbuffers,includingmark-to-marketgainsonoilinventoriesandstrongermarginsinexplorationandproduction.Aspolicyprioritieshaveincreasinglyfocusedonsecuringdomesticenergysupplychains,ChinahascontinuedtobuildoilinventoriesoverthepastdecadethroughthenationalStrategicPetroleumReserve(SPR),commercialreserve,andrefineryreserve(图表10).Stockpilingacceleratedlastyearwhenoilpriceswererelativelylow,echoingthepatternseenin2019-20(图表11).Withoilpriceshigherthisyear,oilrefinersmayhavebenefitedfrommark-to-marketgainsonthoseinventories.图表10:China’svisibleoilinventorylevelhasbeenontherisesince2022...ChinaChina'svisibleoilinventorybreakdownbytanktypeCommercialRefinery400400SPRreferstothenationalStrategicPetroleumReserve.资料来源：Kpler,高盛全球投资研究部图表11:…withrapidstockpilingin2025whenoilpriceswererelativelylowChinaChina'svisibleoilinventorychangesvs.domesticgasolinepricesJan-Apr2026AnnualchangeinoilinventoryDomesticretailoilproductprice(RHS)2018201920202021202220232024202520262500mnbbl0-50-100OurmeasureofChina’svisibleoilinventoryincludesStrategicPetroleumReserve(SPR),commercialreserveandrefineryreserve.资料来源：Kpler,万得,高盛全球投资研究部Moreover,amongallthebusinessesofoilcompanies,althoughrefiningandchemicalsoperationsmaycomeunderpressure,higheroilpricesshouldsupportprofitsinexplorationandproduction.TheannualoperatingprofitsofChina’s“BigThree”oilcompaniesaveragedRMB480bnduring2021-25,peakingin2022when2026年6月5日9theRussia-Ukrainewardroveoilpricessharplyhigher(图表12).Onaquarterlybasis,despitetherecentoil-priceshock,the“BigThree”sawoperatingprofitgrowthreboundinQ12026(图表13).图表12:China’s“BigThree”OilGiantsoperatingprofitsaveragedRMB480bnoverthepastfiveyearsRMBRMBbnPercentchange,yoy600500PetroChina250SinoPec400CNOOC200Growth(RHS)-100-50-200-1002019202020212022202320242025China's"BigThree"OilGiantsOperatingProfits(Annual)资料来源：公司数据,万得,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表13:Despitetheglobalenergy-supplyshock,oilgiantsoperatingprofitgrowthreboundedinQ12026China's"BigThree"OilGiantsOperatingChina's"BigThree"OilGiantsOperatingProfit(Quarterly)AmountGrowth(RHS)1Q221Q231Q241Q251Q26RMBbn%yoy200500-50-10060504030200-10-20-30资料来源：公司数据,万得,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchLishengWangTheauthorwouldliketothankSamsonYau,aninternontheAsiaEconomicsteam,forhiscontributiontothisreport.TheChinaEconomicsTeam+852-3966-4004+852-3966-4004lisheng.wang@+852-2978-6634hui.shan@+852-2978-1802andrew.tilton@+852-2978-0106+852-2978-0106chelsea.song@+852-2978-7283yuting.y.yang@+852-2978-2418xinquan.chen@2026年6月5日10本人，王立升，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人的看法，没有受到公司业务或客户关系因素的影响。本报告首页所列作者为高盛全球投资研究部分析师，除非另有说明。贡献作者:王立升GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.。本报告披露的“贡献作者”为高盛全球投资研究部分析师，除非另有说明。任何本报告中研究企业所需的特定公司法定披露见上文：包括即将进行交易的承销商或副承销商，1%或其他股权，特定服务的补偿，客户关系种类，之前担任承销商或副承销商的公开发行，担任董事，担任股票做市及／或专家的角色。高盛担任或可能担任本报告中所涉及发行方的债券（或相关衍生品）以下为额外要求的披露：股权及重大利益冲突:高盛的政策为禁止其分析师、分析师属下专业人员及其家庭成员持有分析师负责研究的任何公司的证券。分析师薪酬:分析师薪酬部分取决于高盛的盈利，其中包括投资银行的收入。分析师担任高级职员或董事:高盛的政策通常禁止其分析师、分析师属下人员及其家庭成员担任分析师负责研究的任何公司的高级职员、董事或顾问。非美国分析师:非美国分析师可能与高盛无关联，因此可以不受FINRA2241条FINRA2242条对于与所研究公司的交流、公开露面及交易分析师所研究证券的限制。以下为除了根据美国法律法规规定作出的上述信息披露之外其他司法管辖区法律所要求的披露。澳大利亚:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd及其相关机构不是澳大利亚经授权的存款机构（1959年《银行法》所定义），因此不在澳大利亚境内提供银行服务，也不经营银行业务。本研究报告或本报告的其他形式内容只可分发予根据澳大利亚公司法定义的”批发客户”，在事先获得高盛许可的情况下可以有例外。在撰写研究报告期间，GoldmanSachsAustralia全球投资研究部的职员可能参与本研究报告中所讨论证券的发行公司或其他实体组织的现场调研或会议。在某些情况下，如果视具体情形GoldmanSachsAustralia认为恰当或合理，此类调研或会议的成本可能部分或全部由该证券发行人承担。如本报告内容包含任何金融产品建议，则该建议仅为一般建议，且高盛提出该建议时并未考虑客户的目标、财务状况或需求。客户在就此类建议采取行动之前，应结合其自身目标、财务状况和需求来考虑该建议的适当性。高盛澳大利亚和新西兰的利益披露，以及高盛澳大利亚卖方研究独立性制度声明请参见/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html。巴西:与CVMResolutionn.20相关的信息披露请参阅/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html。根据CVMResolutionn.20第20条，在