煤炭行业深度报告：低位触底已成过去拥抱行业景气跃升

1煤炭行业深度报告低位触底已成过去，拥抱行业景气跃升行业信息49行业相对指数表现煤炭行业深度报告2正文目录 52动力煤：煤价下行影响业绩，高长协企业稳定性 7 7 3焦煤：钢铁利润承压煤价下滑，反内卷 15 4焦炭板块：价差收窄业绩压力较大 22 4.22026年一季度：焦煤价格上涨，焦炭利 283 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 4 煤炭行业深度报告5尤其是在暖冬、水电高发、安监趋缓以及贸易战的背景下，煤炭价格持续下降，2,5002,0001,5001,0005000俄乌冲突前俄乌冲突俄乌冲突后破破持续增加，国内安价开启下行煤价开始持续提升，同时冬储进一步抬升煤价。4月以来，供暖季4月以来，供暖季2021/92021/102021/112021/92021/102021/112021/122022/12022/22022/32022/42022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112023/12023/22023/32023/42023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/72024/82024/92024/102024/112024/122025/22025/32025/42025/52025/62025/72025/82025/92025/102025/112025/122026/22026/32026/4年一季度，焦煤价格受到钢铁利润低位压制，价格开启震荡。煤炭行业深度报告6,5,000受阻。下游焦钢企库存上涨4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,000动力煤限价对焦煤企下调煤价。焦钢限产维持低开工率，焦煤需求持续走弱。焦煤价高位回调政4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,000动力煤限价对焦煤企下调煤价。焦钢限产维持低开工率，焦煤需求持续走弱。焦煤价高位回调政钢铁价格下行，带动炼复，焦炭-钢铁降价，焦煤价格焦煤价格下行稳增长预期催化，下游企业其是印度需求格持续反弹。色产业链价格一路下滑反内卷之后，焦煤价格反弹，但蒙煤放量压制涨价上限，煤价开格一路回升，之后预期走弱，煤价下跌化、钢铁开工率维持高位，焦煤需求回升，焦煤价格稳中有升弱，焦煤价格震荡走弱2799亿元，同比-15.2%;实现归母净利润270亿元，同比-5.7%。不同煤炭企业74,000-20202021202220232024202545%40%35%30%25%20%5%0%)2500200010000202020212120%80%60%40%20%-20%-40%)450004300041000390003700035000330003100029000270002022202320242025202640020102011201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202550煤炭行业深度报告8 20232024202520269590802019-122020-062019-122020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-122025-032025-062025-092025-122026-036000400020000120%80%40%0%随着全球能源危机逐渐加剧，煤炭价格中枢出现抬升趋势。1800160014001200100080060040020222023202420252026010203040506070809101102024/22024/42024/62024/82025/22025/42025/62024/22024/42024/62024/82025/22025/42025/62025/82026/22026/40煤炭行业深度报告9250025002000200050002020/102021/62022/22022/102023/62024/22024/102025/62026/24854353853352854854353853352852358535450000400000350000300000450000400000350000300000250000200000150000100000500000201820192020202120222023202420259.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%23000300020222023202420258006004002000水电累计同比20020222023水电累计同比200煤炭行业深度报告10——2022——20222023——2024——2025300020001000030002000150010005000——2022——2023300020001500100050000102030405060708091011122023202420252026M1-32026Eyoy5.0%2.8%-0.9%0.2%0.05%国内供给382,283389,33439006695903390105yoy1.6%1.8%0.2%0.6%0.01%净进口36,78741,45936642830436,826yoy63.0%12.7%-11.6%-3.8%0.5%yoy7.4%3.6%-0.4%3.7%2.19%电力需求258,722266,38026259565441267846yoy8.8%3.0%-1.4%4.0%2.0%建材需求29,09627,00825081433923827yoy-1.7%-7.2%-7.1%-8.3%-5.0%化工需求24,99528,85233208944438190yoy9.3%15.4%15.1%16.9%15.0%17,60917,23416937424917106yoy3.0%-2.1%-1.7%-2.4%1.0%供热需求33,73835,757358841534235884yoy6.3%6.0%0.4%1.4%0.0%其他需求41,16944,52644185915044185yoy7.5%8.2%-0.8%3.8%0.0%供需缺口13,74111,0378,819-3,758-107yoy-36.2%-19.7%-20.1%5337.1%-101.21%煤炭行业深度报告1190008000700060005000400030002000020202021202220232024202525%20%90008000700060005000400030002000020202021202220232024202525%20%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%9%8%7%6%5%)202020212022202320242025煤炭行业深度报告1245%40%45%40%20%2500200015001000500-0-120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%2021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1))秦皇岛港:动力煤(Q5500):山西产8508007507006506002025-92025-102025-112025-122026-12026-22026-32026-4950900750700650600550500806040200-20-40-60-802025/122026/12026/22026/32026/413图表27:2026Q1煤炭进口量基本持平（万吨）mm季度煤炭进口量yoy-右轴120%80%120%80%16,00014,00012,00060%10,00040%8,00020%6,0000%-20%0%-20%-40%2,0000300250200300250200500 20232024202520263700350033003100290027002500 202320242025202614图表30:2026Q1动力煤板块营业总成本上涨（亿元）02021Q12022Q)图表31:2026Q1期间费用率略增8%7%6%5%4%2021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1实现归母净利润271亿元，同比-1.7%;实现毛利率30.7%，同比减少0.1pct。图表32:2026Q1动力煤板块主要盈利指标概况（亿元）煤炭行业深度报告15图表33:2025年炼焦煤板块营收下降24.3%（亿元）30%25%30%25%20%-202020212022202320242025)400350300400350300250200500120%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%202020212022202320242025)中国:产量:炼焦煤:季:合计值yoy-右轴14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000202016-032016-082017-012017-062018-042018-092019-022019-072020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-042023-092024-022024-072024-122025-052025-1025%20%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%煤炭行业深度报告16 202220232024202520262500200010005000)4002000(100)40003500250020001500100050001020304050607023-723-1124-324-724-1125-325-725-1126-3产能利用率的提升主要是受焦煤价格下跌所5,0004,5004,0003,5003,000 20222023——202420254,4004,2004,0003,8003,6003,4003,2003,000——2022——2023——20242025煤炭行业深度报告172023202420252026.1-32026E总供给59356594565968760152yoy6.5%0.2%0.4%3.3%0.8%国内供给4914247303479421172547702yoy-0.4%-3.7%1.4%0.0%-0.5%净进口102141215311745318612450yoy60.6%19.0%-3.4%17.4%6.0%国内需求59149587795990960328yoy6.3%-0.6%2.9%0.7%供需缺口206.55676.25-221.28-205.31-175.65yoy129.7%227.4%-132.7%-17.2%-20.6%焦煤板块营业收入同比下降24.3%。公司营业总成本同比下降20.1%。25002000020202021202220232024202540%20%-20%-40%)9%7%202020212022202320242025煤炭行业深度报告1835%30%25%35%30%25%20%10%5%0%3,0002,5002,0001,000500-2021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1)400350300250200500160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%2021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1)19中国:产量:炼焦煤yoy右轴20.0%6,00020.0%15.0%5,00010.0%5.0%4,0005.0%0.0%3,0005.0%10.0%2,00010.0%15.0%1,00020.0%25.0%025.0%31002600210060023-723-1124-324-724-1125-325-725-1126-3280026002400220020008002023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q220————中国:产量:焦炭:当月值4,3004,3004,2004,1004,0003,9003,8003,7003,6003,500400230家独立焦化厂产能利用率247家钢铁企业焦化产能利用率2021/92022/86000500040003000200010002024-012024-022024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-03煤炭行业深度报告2125002000040%20%-20%-40%2021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q12021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1图表54:2026Q1焦煤板块主要盈利指标概况（亿元）煤炭行业深度报告2225%20%15%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%8006004002000202020212022202320242025)0-20-40-60202020212022202320400%-400%)量：焦炭-焦煤价差有所改善，工厂开工率积极性有 202220232024202542003800340030003456789108%7%6%4%3%1%0%元/吨，同比下跌23.7%。煤炭行业深度报告2350%40%30%20%-10%-20%-30% 2022202320240——中国:产量:粗钢:当月值——中国:产量:粗钢:当月值9,5008,5009,5008,5007,5006,5005,5004,5003,5002502402302202102002024-32024-82024-32024-82025-12025-62025-11 2022202320242025202624800800600400200060%40%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%6%5%4%20202021202220232024202020212022202320242025202020212022202320242025)4个百分点：1）量：2026Q1焦炭产量有所提升;2）价：焦煤价格向上游传导较25图表66:2026Q1焦炭板块营业收入下滑(年度累计)25%20%8006005%4000%-5%-10%-5%-10%02021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1)图表67:2026Q1焦炭板块业绩下滑(年度累计)60406040600%400%20200%0-40-40-60-200%-400%2021Q12022Q1)焦炭产量yoy-右轴4,500104,00083,50063,00042,50022,00001,500-21,000-4500