高盛-全球医疗保健：CDMO行业格局演进 第9期：2026年一季度复苏势头不减能见度不均推动下半年偏好新分子领域赢家和规模化龙头（摘要）-20260603

2026年6月3日|6:43PMHKT全球医疗保健:CDMO行业格局演进第9期：2026年一季度复苏势头不减，能见度不均推动下2026年一季度业绩基本符合或好于我们的预期，进一步印证了CDMO行业持续但并不均衡的复苏势头。潜在需求仍受到减重相关管线支撑，尤GLP-1，持续推动订单增长并支持产能进一步扩张。投资者关注点转向需求持久性以及向下一代新分子领域的多元化拓展。在ADC领域，产品管线势头依然稳健（例如，药明合联在手订单增长但商业化前景能见度呈现分化，反映出创（默沙东/科伦博泰的芦康沙妥珠单抗(sac-TMT)数据读出积极，而第一三共则下调了展望未来，各地区和新分子领域的分化仍是关键主题。龙沙等全球出稳定的商业化执行力。相比之下，亚洲生物药产能的能见度现正常化迹象（例如，三星生物持续订单磋商和药明生物PPQ转化进展），且新签订并由中国CDMO企业引领。印度CDMO企业继续扩大投资，三星生物的6号工厂项目启动时间仍然待定。宏观和政策层面的不确定性依然存在，可控。地缘政治和监管动向（例如，FDA对中国临床数据的看法、COI继续推动短期市场情绪。然而，管理层评论表明，鉴于大型药企享有多种豁免，232条款关税风险已经受控，而且对于CDMO企业而言，对AI相关颠覆影响的担忧已有所展望2026年下半年，我们预计在手订单转化和结构转向商业化项目将推动能见度提升，催化剂将更多来自新订单披露和资本支出公告。我们仍看并具备领先规模的CRO/CDMO龙头企业：(1)受益于GLP-1/TIDES产品周期的公司（如药明康德、凯莱英H、Divi’sLab），以及ADC领域的药明合联(WuXiXDC)；(2)交付近期重大事件：第三届印度CDMO年度实地调研（6月10-12日）；将于新加坡举办的第二届全球CDMO日（9月23-25日）+852-2978-0526|ziyi.chen@潘英龙,CFA+852-2978-7993|chris.pan@ShyamSrinivasan,CFA+91(22)6616-9346|shyam.srinivasan@JamesQuigley+44(20)7051-3800|james.quigley@EvieKoslosky+1(212)357-1694|e.v.koslosky@江欣禅,Ph.D.+852-2978-1126|kaylee.jiang@KaranVora,CFA+91(22)6616-9146|karan.vora@ShyamKotadia+44(20)7051-6153|shyam.kotadia@TheodoraRoweBeadle+44(20)7552-0177|theodora.beadle@EddieSong+852-2978-6426|eddie.song@信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国Keyhighlightsfromrecent1Q26resultsChineseCDMOs(coveredbyZiyiChen&ChrisPan)—sectorrevenuerecoverybroadening;earningsleverageremainshighlydifferentiatednCDMO-orientedcompanies(WuXiAppTec,Asymchem,Pharmaron)showaredeliveringmoreresilientrevenuemomentum,improvingordervisibility,andclearerpathstoprofitrecovery,whileCRO-heavyTigermedhasreachedaclearorderinfiection,butmarginandearningsrepaircontinuetolagrevenue.Comparedwith2H25,whenthemarketfocusedonwhetherthecyclehadbottomed,1Q26hasshiftedthedebatetoexecutionandearningsdelivery—specificallybacklogconversion,projectmix,andFX-adjustedmarginnormalization.EarningsleverageisincreasinglyfavoringscaledCDMOplatformsoverCRO.WhileFXheadwindscontinuetomaskreportedearnings,underlyingprofitabilitytrends—onceadjusted—remainconstructive,reinforcingourconfidenceinmid-cyclemarginnormalizationacrossscalableCDMOplatforms.WuXiAppTec:1Q26confirmedthetransitionfromrevenuerecoverytoearnings-leveragedexecution,withinvestorswehavespokenwithincreasinglyfocusedonapotentialguidanceupgradein2QandcontinueddeliverytobuildconfidenceinFY27–28earningssustainability;Asymchem’sunderlyingearningsmomentumremainsstrongdespiteFXnoise,withgrowthincreasinglydrivenbyemergingmodalities(Peptide),supportingourconfidenceinmid-cyclemarginnormalization;forPharmaron,ordershavere-acceleratedaheadofrevenue,significantlyimprovingvisibility,butnear-termmarginsremainconstrainedbyFXandclinicalpricingpressures.Tigermed:Demandinfiectionisnowevidentontheorderbook,butprofitrecoverycontinuestolag,keepingexecutiondisciplineandmarginrepairthekeyswingfactorswithpotentiallyincreasingAIinvestment.nCapexcommentaryreinforcedasector-wideshifttowarddemand-linked,execution-driveninvestment.WuXiAppTecemphasizedselectiveexpansionfocusedonTIDES,digitalinfrastructure,andoverseassiteswithvisibledemand,withcapexintensitynormalizingasutilizationimproves.WuXiBiologicsprovidedtheclearestvisibilityinourcoverage,guiding~Rmb7.1bnFY26capex,tightlylinkedtolatestageandcommercialdemandacrossoverseasbiologicscapacity.WuXiXDCguided~Rmb3.1bnFY26capex,largelyforSingaporeramp-upandBioDlink,implyingconfidenceinlong-termADCdemanddespitenear-termmarginabsorption.AsymchemraisedFY26capexto~Rmb2.1bn,with70–80%allocatedtoemergingservices(peptides,oligonucleotides,ADCs)andexplicitlytiedtoutilizationandbacklogconversion.Pharmaronremainsatthetailendofitscapexcycle,withcapitalintensityguidedtodeclinefromFY26asfocusshiftstoutilization,marginsandfreecashfiow.KoreanCDMOsSamsungBio(207940.KS,coveredbyChrisPan):Solid1Qexecutionwithfull-yearguidanceintact;laborstrikeaskeyinvestorfocus2026年6月3日22026年6月3日3nSolid1Q26,withrevenuebroadlyinlineandprofitmodestlyaheadofourestimates,supportedbyfullutilizationandcontinuedmarginexpansion,whilemaintainingFY26guidanceof+15–20%revenuegrowthandmid-40%operatingmargin.WhilethecumulativebacklogwasbroadlyfiattishversusYE25andnolargecontractswereannouncedduringthequarter,managementemphasizedthatordermomentumremainsintactwithongoingmulti-yeardiscussionswithglobalpharmaclients,highlightingtheinherentlylumpynatureofcontracttiming.InvestordiscussionshavefocusedonthesustainabilityoforderintakeandthetimingofPlant6askeydriversofmedium-termcapacitygrowth,alongsidenear-termnoisefromlabornegotiations.Strategically,thecompanycontinuestoenhanceitsglobalfootprint,includingtheUSRockvilleacquisition(withrevenuecontributionexpectedfrom3Qandpotentialupsidetoguidanceinourview),whileretainingoptionalityonfurtherexpansion(e.g.,Plant6).Overall,wedonotexpectnear-termuncertaintiestoalterthestructuralearningstrajectory,withthelong-terminvestmentcaseunderpinnedbyconsistentlyhighutilization,portfolio-basedordersfromglobalpharmaclientsandongoingglobalexpansion,withUScapacityandfutureplantadditionsprovidingincrementaloptionalitybeyondFY26guidance.nLaborstrikeimpactandprogressaskeyinvestorfocus:negotiationsremainongoing,noimminentthreattostrategiccompetitiveness:Managementsharedthattherecentlaboraction(May1–5)waspartialratherthanafull-scalestrike,primarilyaffectingpreparationandcellculturestages,withnodisruptiontopurificationprocesses,andoperationshaveresumed.Importantly,managementnotednoimminentthreattostrategiccompetitiveness,supportedbylong-standing,establishedrelationshipswithlargeglobalpharmaceuticalcustomers,whounderstandthecompany’soperatingmodelandrisk-mitigationframeworkdespitethebriefandlocalizeddisruption.EuropeanCRO/CDMOsLonza(LONN.S,coveredbyJamesQuigley):aqualitylong-termcompounderstorynThe1Q26qualitativeupdatefromLonzawasbroadlyinlinewithbothourandVisibleAlphaconsensus’expectations,withthecompanyreiteratingFY26guidance(FY26CDMOCERsalesgrowth11-12%,FY26CDMOcoreEBITDAmargin>32%).ThecompanyhighlightedthatitcontinuestoseestrongcommercialdemandfromPharmaandBiotechcompanies,withmanagementconfirmingseveraladditionalintegrateddrugsubstance-drugproductcontractsweresignedinthequarter,andthatLonzahadextendeditsmanufacturingagreementforZYNTEGLO(Genetix).WecontinuetoseeLonzaasaqualitylong-termcompounder,andseethepositivecommentaryregardingcustomerdemandat1Q26assupportiveofourview.nAswithpriorquarters,themostcommonpushbackwehaveheardfrominvestorsisthelackofcatalystsforLonzaoverthenext12months,althoughwewouldhighlightthatLonzahasalwaysbeenacatalyst-lightstock.Fortheremainderof2026,weseei)1H26resultson22ndJuly,and2)apotentialCMDin2026年6月3日42H26(unconfirmed),asbeingtwopotentialcatalystsforLonza’sshares.However,webelievethatthekeydeterminingfactorofsharepriceperformancewilllikelybeLonzacontinuingtodeliverstrongcommercialexecutionandmeetitsfinancialtargets.Otherfactorsholdingbackthestockincludeconcernsaroundcashfiow,ROICandindustrysupply/demand(particularlygivenannouncedinvestmentsintheUS);wecontinuetoseecashfiow/ROICimprovingovertime,withevidenceofthisbecomingmorevisibleinthecomingresults(H1’26/FY’26)andgiventhetimerequiredtobuildnewplantsvs.strongindustrydemand,wearenotconcernedoverthesupply/demandbalance.IndianCDMOs(coveredbyShyamSrinivasan):improvingsalesgrowthwithdivergence;encouragingcapextrendnIndianCDMOsreportedhealthy4QFY26(Marquarter)resultswithaggregategrowthimprovingto13%yoy(3QFY26:+4%yoy).Thedivergenceofsalesgrowthamongcorporateswasstark:-19%yoy(Cohance)to+366%yoy(Neuland),indicatingstock-specificdrivers,ratherthananoverallmacrotrend.FY27guidanceforthecompaniesthatexplicitlyprovideitwerelargelyinlinewithstreetexpectations.Moreimportantly,annualCapextrendsweremoreencouragingwithaggregategrowthof39%inFY26,takingcapexto16%ofsales(+300bspyoy).WeretainourviewthattoplinegrowthissettoacceleratetomidteensinFY27(vs.10%inFY26)onthebackofconversionfromRFP/orderstorevenuesaswebuildinaramp-upofnewlybuiltcapacityaswellasrecentacquisitions,thoughproduct-specificstocking/destockingremainkeyrisks.USCDMOsThermoFisher(TMO,coveredbyEvieKoslosky):1Q26Recap—Long-termtailwindsintact,slopeofrecoverymoderatednGiventherecentselloff,thecompanynowtradesata2-3xdiscounttoits10YhistoricalaverageEV/EBITDAmultiplewhichwebelieverepresentsanattractiveentrypointasweviewmanyofthekeyfuturegrowthdriversforthebusinessasstillintact.Therecentde-ratingwaslargelydrivenbyweak1Q26organicrevenuegrowthandunderlyingend-markettrendsthatweresteadyover4Q25(accountingforsellingdaysandfacilitymaintenance),leadinginvestorstoquestionthetrajectoryoftheorganicgrowthrecovery.WebelieveTMOwilleventuallyrampbackuptoitslong-termorganicgrowthguideof7%butexpectittotaketimegiventhelong-termnatureofsomeofthetailwindstoitsbusinessincludingPharmaR&DspendingrelatedtoAIdatasetbuildouts,improvedbiotechfunding,CDMOoutsourcingtrendsandcapacitybuild-outsascustomersonshoretotheUS,andmarketsharegainsinitsCRO.Wenotehowever,thatakeycatalystforthenameisinfiectinggrowthabove3%thisyear,whichcouldgiveinvestorsmoreconfidencethattherecoveryisstillongoing,andwehavenotyetreachednormalizedgrowthlevels.CharlesRiver(CRL,NotCovered):Divestitureofnon-coreassetsaspartofstrategicreview2026年6月3日5nCRLreportedsalesofUS$995.8mn(+1.2%y/yororganic-1.5%y/yex-FX/divestiture)andnon-GAAPEPSofUS$2.06(-12%y/y)for1Q26(seeannouncement).CRLalsoannouncedthedivestitureofitsCDMOandCellSolutionsbusinessestoGIPartners(completed)andtheplanneddivestitureofcertainEuropeanDiscoveryServicesassetstoIQVIAearlierthisyear(link),followingacomprehensivestrategicreviewconductedin2025.Bydivestingtheunderperformingassets,mgmtsaiditaimstorefocusondrugdevelopmentandtestingandimprovesiteutilizationandoperatingmargins.Additionally,mgmtintendstoprioritizedebtrepaymentandmaintain“drypowder”forfutureopportunitiesratherthanpursuingimmediatelarge-scaleacquisitions.WenotethatCRL’sdivestiturestrategyisbroadlyconsistentwithindustryrepositioning,whereglobalpeersarestreamliningportfoliostowardhigher-return,execution-drivensegments(viaongoingdivestments/disposals/exits,e.g.:WuXiAppTec’sdivestmentsofCGT,ChinaclinicalresearchandUSmedicaldevicetestingservices;WuXiBio’sdisposalsofIrelandvaccineandGermanyDPassets;Lonza’sexitfromCHI).Managementreaffirmedits2026organicrevenueyoygrowthguidanceof(1.5)%-(0.5)%andnon-GAAPearningspershareof$10.80–$11.30.JapaneseCDMOFujifilm(4901.T,NotCovered):FY26guidanceimpliesstablegrowthat16.7%,marginpressurefrommaintenanceandsmall-scaledragnFujifilm’sBioCDMOreported4QFY25(Jan–Mar2026)withrevenueup+1%y/yandFY25revenuegrowthof+16%y/y,primarilydrivenbycontinuedramp-upatitsDenmarklarge-scalefacilities.However,operatingincomecamebelowpriorguidancewhichmanagementattributedtodelaysinsecuringearly-stageprojectsleadingtoprofitabilitydilutionforsmall-tomid-scalecapacityandtheabsenceofone-offcancellationfeesrecordedintheprioryear,withEBITDAmarginhavingdeclinedtoc.10%inFY25,refiectingawideninggapbetweenmid-20s%marginsinlarge-scalefacilitiesversusc.-10%forSMIDcapacity(vs.high-20s/breakeveninFY24,respectively).LookingintoFY26,managementguidedBioCDMOrevenuegrowthof+16.7%y/y,butwithoperatingmargintodeclinemodestlytoc.23%(from25%),drivenbyscheduledmaintenanceatDenmarksites.Capexisguidedtodeclineby~JPY197bninFY26,asthecompanyshiftstowardcapitalefficiency,withgroupFCFguidedtoturnpositive.2026年6月3日6图表1:ContinuingstrongordermomentumsupportingsustainedgrowthforAsianCDMOsin1Q26ininLastreportFY25/26GuidanceNeworder(NO),BackloganddemandrecoveryNewmodality(GLP-1/ADCetc.)Capex(FY26)&capitalallocationChinaWuXiAppTecFY26revenuegrowthof18–22%(or22–26%atconstantcurrency)1Q261Q26revenue/adj.NPbeatmaintainingstableadj.non-IFRSNM;adj.FCFofRmb10.5-11.5bn;withroomtoreviewguidancein2Q1Q26backlogRmb59.8bn(+23.6%y/y;+29%ex-FX);neworders+25%ex-FX;WuXiTestingrecoverycontinued;safetyevaluation+34.8%y/y,withpricing/volumeimprovementinearly-stagelabservicesSmallmoleculeremainskeybeyondoralGLP-1;improvingvisibilityinPROTACs,cyclicpeptidesandTIDESpeptidecapacity~130kLbyend-2026MaintainedFY26capexatRmb6.5-7.5bn;selectiveaccelerationinChangzhou,withROIdisciplineAsymchem1Q26revenueslightlyaheadofGse,withNPinline19–22%y/yrevenuegrowthinFY26,incorporatinga2–3%FXheadwind;withoperatingmarginupsideChemical/biologicalmacromoleculemomentumstrong;small-moleculedemandimprovingsequentiallyPeptides,oligosandADCsdroveemergingbusiness+74%y/yFY26capexRmb2.1bnmaintained;focusedonpeptides,oligosandADCs;flexibletoraisein2H262H25revenue2H25revenueinline,adjNPslightlyabove35%grouprevenuegrowthforFY26onaconstant-currency,like-for-likebasis(includingBioDlink)or40%onaproformabasis;30–35%revenueCAGRtargetfor2025–30BacklogUS$1.49bn(+50%y/y);newordersUS$1.33bn(+41%y/y);commercial/PPQvisibilityimproving70newiCMCprojects:~20%BsADC,~5%dual-payloadADC,~17%XDC;XDCrevenuemix7.4%FY26capexRmb3.1bnincl.Rmb1.68bnBioDlink,~Rmb500mnSingaporeand~Rmb900mndomestic;cumulativecapextarget~Rmb8bn(frompriorRmb7bn)by2030Pharmaron1Q26adj.NPslightlyaboveGSe2H25revenueandadj.NPbeat1Q26adj.NPmissFY26revenuegrowthat12–18%NewPOs+30%+y/y,withsmall-y/y,incorporatinga~3%USDmoleculeCDMO+50%andlabLLYDPprojectintechFY26capexlikelyslightlyaboveFY25depreciationheadwind;marginsservices+20%+y/y;backlogcoverstransfer/validationin2026,with(Rmb2.7bn);significantspendtowardcontinuetoimprovesequentially;~70%ofFY26revenue;AI-relatedlimitednear-termcontributionCMCcapabilitiesFCF-positivetargetservicesdemandrisingWuXiBioTigermedKorea&JapanFY26revenuegrowthguidanceofBacklogUS$23.7bn;servicebacklogUS$11.5bn,milestonesUS$12.2bn;~2/3ofnewprojectsfrombi-/multi-FY26capex~Rmb7.1bnincl.~Rmb1.5bndeferredfromFY25;~1/3eachtoSingapore,USandXDC;13–17%y/y(16-20%atconstantUS$4.5bnwithin3years;1QsigningsspecificsandADCs;projectcountslarge-scaleMcapacity(≥6kL/batch)currency)+100%y/y;pricingfornewcontracts+30%y/yinbothtargetedtoreach~370kLby2029,+5-10%withoverseas~50%(potentially60%ifincl.Qatarproject)Double-digitrevenuegrowthinJan-Aprnewordersc.Rmb3bn;1QFY26,newordergrowthnotlowerhighdouble-digity/ygrowth;AprilAIinvestmentRmb200-300mnforthanFY25(~21%);full-yearmomentumacceleratedfurther;higherNAFY26;c.Rmb25mnincurredin1Q;AIinvestmentincomeexpectednetmixofPhaseI/IIandearly-stageAgentlaunchtargetedbyJulpositiveprojects;early-stagetrials+c.30%y/ySamsungBiologics1Q26NPslightlyaboveGSeFY26revenuegrowthof+15-20%y/y,withoperatingmarginatthemid‑40%levelOrdertiminglumpy;cumulativecontractsUS$21.4bnvsUS$21.2bnatYE25;multipledealsnearsigningADCGMPengineeringbatchescompletedin1Q26;dual-siteKorea-USproductiondiscussionswithlargepharmasPlant6stillunderreview4QFY25BioCDMO+1.2%Fujifilm(Notcovered)y/y;EBITDAmarginexoneoffatlow-teens%FY26BioCDMOrevenueguidanceofJPY300bn(+16.7%y/y)NAToyamasiteoffersend-to-endADCfromlinker/payloadtoDP,withrisinginquiriesfromJapanandAsiaHealthcarecapexofJPY248bninFY26(vsJPY445bninFY25);newlarge-scalefacilitiesdrovegrowth,whileearly-stageprojectcancellationweighedonsmall-/mid-scale;utilizationtoimprovetowardH2资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年6月3日7图表2:MixedresultsandguidancebelowourexpectationforIndianplayers,whileEuropeanandUSplayersoutperformedwithguidanceraiseininLastreportLastreportIndiaNeworder(NO),BackloganddemandrecoveryCapex(FY26)&capitalallocationNewmodality(GLP-1/ADCetc.)FY25/26GuidanceSyngene4Q26beatFlattishtoplinegrowthinFY27(H1expectedtobeweaker)withmid-20s%marginSignsofrecoveryinUSbiotechfundingNAUS$40-50mninFY27Laurus4Q26inlineExpectstomaintainstrongCDMOgrowthinFY27NAContinuousFlowChemistry,Biocatalysis,CAR-TRs30bn(~US$315mn)overFY27-28E,primarilyonCDMO(upfromoriginalguidanceofRs10bnp.a.)Piramal4Q26inlineLowtomid-teentoplinegrowthwithEBITDA/PATgrowthfasterthantoplinegrowthinFY27SignsofrecoveryinUSbiotechfundingNAUS$120-135mninFY27Divi’sLab4Q26inlineDoubledigitgrowthwithstablemarginsinFY27PriceerosioncontinuesinthegenericAPIbusinessContinuousFlowChemistry,BiocatalysisUS$200-300mninFY27Neuland4Q26beatExpectsahealthygrowthinFY27NAPeptidesincl.GLP-1satcommercialscaleRs15bn(~US$160mn)overFY27-29Ewith~US$80mninFY27Cohance4Q26missGrowthshouldreturninFY27,butwithaback-endloadedprofile:managementexpectsQ1FY27tobeweak,Q2tobestable,andamorevisiblerecoveryinH2FY27NAADCs,OligonucleotidesUS$35mninFY27Europe&USLonza2H25CDMOsalesCHF3,500mn(+20.4%CERgrowth)-c.2%beatvsVisibleAlphaconsensusexpectationsFY26CDMOCERsalesgrowth11-12%FY26CDMOcoreEBITDAmargin>32%2025Commercialcontracting>CHF10bn(vsc.CHF10bnin2024);robustcommercialdemandinmammalianandbioconjugates;growthinsmallmoleculesdrivenbycontinuingstrongdemandforcomplexAPIsNACapexas%ofsales:2025capex19.6%ofsales2026capextobehighteens%ofsalesMidtermcapextobemid-highteens%ofsalesSplitof2025capex:c.60%growthcapexvsc.40%maintenancecapexThermoFisher1Q26totalsales+6%y/yandadj.EPS+6%y/yRaisedFY2026revenueguidancetoUS$47.3bn-48.1bnfrompreviousofUS$46.3bn-47.2bntoreflectClarioacquisition,organicgrowthguidemaintained.AdjEPSwasraisedto$24.64-$25.12frompreviousof$24.22-24.80.*TMOdoesnotreportbacklogfortheirCDMOspecificallybutrevenuegrew8.3%in1Q26withthecompanynotingtailwindsfromUSonshoringtrends;companynotedtheyareseeingarecoveryinearlyresearchsideofthebusinessbutguidedtosimilarconditionsin2026as2025.NAFY26CapexguideraisedtoUS$1.9-2.1frompreviousofUS$1.8-2.0bnBeat/miss/inlinevsGSe资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,VisibleAlphaConsensusData图表3:Companiesacrossregionsmaintainedtheirguidancein1Q26,whileweseepotentialforupwardrevisionforCDMOswithlargerexposuretolate-stageprojectsChangesinfull-yearguidanceSource:Companydata,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年6月3日8Obesity-leddemandsustainingCDMOgrowthamiddebateonmodalityshiftandgenericsGLP-1demanddrivingChineseCDMOgrowthandacceleratingcapacityexpansionnWuXiAppTec’sstrongsmallmoleculeD&MperformancewaslikelydrivenbyoralGLP-1,whilepeptidegrowthwassofterin1Qduetophasingbutwithfull-yearguidancerevisedhigherto40%from30%;capacityexpansionremainsfirmlyontrack,withtotalsolid-phasepeptidecapacityexpectedtoreach~130kLbyend-2026,withthreeadditionalnewsitesunderdevelopment;Asymchemcontinuestoexpandpeptidecapacitywithtotalcapacityguidedtoreach69kLbyYE26,from45kLin2025;andPharmaronenteredintoamanufacturingpartnershipwithEliLillyforOrforglipron’sDPsupplyfortheChinamarket,whilemgmtnotedthat2026isfocusedontechnologytransfer,preparationandvalidation,anddoesnotexpectmeaningfulrevenue/ordercontributionin2026.OralGLP-1gainingtraction:EarlylaunchdatapointtoincrementaldemandexpansionnLLY’s(coveredbyAsadHaider)oralGLP-1Foundyolaunch:Mgmtnotedduringits1Q26earningscall(i)80%ofFoundayoprescriptionsarenewincretinpatients,suggestingongoingmarketexpansiondynamicswhichweseeasreassuringinthecontextofinvestordebatesoverwhetherNovoNordisk’soralWegovyhadtakenallthe“low-hangingfruit”intheoralobesitymarket;(ii)theynowhave8,000prescribers,athirdofwhomhadnotpreviouslywrittenanoralGLP-1script;(iii)20kpatientshavealreadybeentreatedtodatewith45%ofvolumecomingthroughLLY-Directandpositivefeedbackfromconsumerswithrespecttoefficacyandnofood/waterrestrictions;(iv)commercialaccesshasbeenconfirmedat2/3majorPBMsbymid-May;and(v)afull-scaleconsumerpromotionwillbegininQ3.MedicareaccessthroughtheGLP-1BridgeprogrambeginningonJuly1stwasalsoreferencedasapotentialaccelerator,albeitgradual.ManagementalsoexpectstogetapprovalforFoundayoinT2Dbeforetheendoftheyear.(SeeAsad’snote)nNovo’soralWegovylaunchexceedingexpectation:Novo’s(Novob.CO,coveredbyJamesQuigley)Wegovypilllaunchcontinuestoexceedexpectations,andtheNBRxdynamicislikelyunderappreciatedforNovo,inouranalyst’sview-ifitsmarketsharecanbemaintainedthroughtheDTCphaseoftheFoundayolaunch(from3Q’26),thenthiscouldbeakeyleadingindicatorforlong-termmarketsharedevelopment.Jamescurrentlymodelstheoralmarkettakingaround30%shareby2030(oralNBRxintheUSiscurrently35%andgrowing),withmarketsharesplitof40:60forWegovypill/Foundayo(30:70by2035).MgmtexpectedthefirstexUSWegovypilllaunchesin2H26,withthecompanyconfidentthatNovohassufficientcapacitytosupplythesemarketsinadditiontotheUS(SeeJames’snote).2026年6月3日9图表4:Oralsareofftoaverystrongstartsincetheirlaunchearlierthisyear...PrescriptiontrendsacrossGLP-1brandsxdosageforms,weekssincelaunchWeek1Week1Week2Week3Week4Week5Week6Week7Week8Week9Week10Week11Week12Week13Week14Week15Week16Week17Week18160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000WegovypillFoundayoWegovyinjectableZepboundinjectable资料来源：IQVIA图表5:...withoralsreachingc.28%ofglobalAnti-ObesityMedication(AOM)by20302026-2030asGSe95%81%202620270%100%202590%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%21%73%202824%68%202928%62%2030GLP-1InjectablesAmylinInjectablesOrals5%Impactfromgenericssemaglutide,withwidepricingdispersiontodriveaccessnWithlossofExclusivity(LoE)forsemaglutideinkeyemergingmarkets(e.g.,India,Brazil)inlateMarchandChinalikelyin2027,themarkethasincreasinglyfocusedonthepotentialdisruptionfromgenericdrugs,inparticularon:1)Pricing:ThefirstbatchofIndiangenericplayersarelaunchingsemaglutideatprices(US$14-US$44permonth)thatarelargelyinlinewithourearlieranalysis.Weexpectthepricingofgenericsemaglutidetobei)c.US$50/monthinabullcase(e.g.,first-in-market,premiumpendesign),ii)c.US$10/monthinamaturemarket(e.g.,aftervolume-basedprocurementorVBP),andiii)c.US$2.5/monthinabearcaseassuming25%GPMtocoverSG&Aexpensesforbusinessbreakeven.2)Impactonpenetration:WeexpectgenericsemaglutidetodriveuptheGLP-1penetrationgloballyespeciallyinemergingmarkets,withi)pricingpressureonbrandeddru