科技行业全球半导体代工：关注AI需求外溢和硅光的投资机会

图表3：代工&封测企业估值表市值 收盘价 增速 股价变动公司名称 （百万美元当地货币）2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2025A 2026E 1W 30D YTD代工（Foundry）GFSUS GlobalFoundries37,1026735.227.03.02.810%10%-7.621.891.0TSEMUS TowerSemi28,08225175.243.8nana7%46%13.811.0114.02330TW 台积电1,805,9032,20522.317.87.65.846%49%-2.28.642.32303TW 联电44,88411325.022.03.53.312%35%8.154.8129.45347T 世界先进9,28917.324.13.83.43%36%-7.419.371.06770TW 力积电7,8415910.614.21.91.613%397%-5.811.247.9981HK 中芯国际87,5086964.348.03.12.934%70%-10.615.4-4.11347HK 华虹半导体28,770117138.994.03.83.65%236%-10.028.856.9688249CH 晶合集成7,1644182.968.43.63.431%39%14.737.523.6小计2,056,54335.227.03.63.312%46%-2.310.644.3OSAT（封测）US 安靠16,2466631.428.53.33.05%39%-10.8-2.766.03711TW 日月光66,49747228.420.15.14.518%87%-15.06.888.4688820CH 盛合晶微49,770183294.6170.716.915.4na27%33.0nana2449TW 京元电子11,16028929.619.15.85.050%9%-4.05.116.86239TW 力成5,44222718.412.72.72.316%62%0.29.431.2600584CH 长电科技15,9936150.638.03.63.33%38%10.138.365.3002156CH 通富微电13,1275958.245.65.34.878%26%-1.022.256.1002185CH 华天科技7,2601553.041.72.62.516%31%6.020.139.5小计185,49541.033.34.43.916%35%3.48.450.6注：美股以外数据截至2026/5/19收盘，美股数据截至2026/5/18收盘Factset，图表4：全球半导体代工季度业绩及指引：AI需求外溢推动成熟代工ASP/毛利率上升Factset，Bloomberg，各公司公告图表5：全球主要代工企业1Q26vs2Q26毛利率指引59%58%59%58%29%30%29%29%27%29%29%32%26%27%20%21%21%22%13%15%14%15%50GPM(%)40GPM(%)3020100TSMC

SMIC

UMC

GFS

Tower

VIS

晶合 ASE

Amkor1Q26GPM 2Q26GPM指引中点Factset，Bloomberg，各公司公告图表6：主要半导体制造企业Capex季度趋势USDmn50,000

台积电 中芯国际 华虹半导体 GlobalFoundries 联电 力积电VIS TowerSemi 晶合集成 SamsungSemi SKHynix Micron45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00001Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q26Factset，Bloomberg，各公司公告图表7：硅光技术演进与CPO结构示意图RockleyPhotonics，Intel，Cisco，MIC，TEEMA图表8：Tower业绩增长驱动Tower公司公告图表9：GFS硅光工艺GFS公司公告图表10：中国各板块市值构成（亿RMB）1,0931,0931,0192,6087,0439,537寒武纪7,5963,42517,00012,0007,0002,000(3,000)代工Foundry 封测OSAT AI芯片Design注：数据截至2026/5/19Bloomberg图表11：全球半导体资本开支（USDbn）Foundry Memory Logic/IDM300.0Foundry Memory Logic/IDM250.0USDbn200.0USDbn150.0100.050.0-2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027EFactset，Bloomberg，各公司公告图表12：全球半导体设备市场收入规模USD180160140120100806040200

Factset一致预期 同比增速2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E

20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Factset图表13：全球半导体设备估值表市值 收盘价 PE PB 增速 股价变动（%）公司名称 （百万美元）当地货币2026E2027E2026E2027E2025A2026E1W30D90D180DYTD前道设备AMATUSAMAT328,21341434.225.712.410.09%28%-4.14.212.087.860.9ASMLUSASML572,9861,47239.530.020.515.447%26%-3.20.90.250.137.6LRCXUSLamresearch347,60927849.035.030.220.337%37%-3.93.915.899.162.4KLACUS1,75647.435.039.831.240%11%-3.0-2.018.759.344.6ASMNA onal 838 38.331.18.46.95%45%0.06.617.068.261.8ONTOUSOntoInnovation12,66125535.727.45.44.77%44%-8.4-12.515.7103.261.28035JPTokyoelectron7,1704182.968.43.63.431%39%14.737.59.438.023.67735JPSCREEN12,63410,52017.614.83.73.25%23%-8.00.1-0.162.338.16920JPLASERTEC21,40436,06042.734.913.210.743%10%-17.1-9.715.729.021.66525JPKokusai9,8946,60035.525.36.35.417%44%-6.8-1.711.256.420.1小计38.930.610.48.424%33%-3.61.99.770.749.4后道设备TERUSTeradyne50,25832143.932.514.211.223%84%-10.4-15.62.0105.965.9KLICUSK&S5,2009929.122.45.85.3587%1557%1.421.344.0154.6118.1NVMIUSNova15,47048746.538.09.77.729%21%-1.3-7.97.776.548.2CAMTUSCamtek7,13715644.534.49.27.115%7%-10.8-13.4-1.164.746.46146JPDisco42,06861,60037.731.49.78.19%31%-15.4-15.5-14.230.327.96857JPAdvantest116,54325,29036.729.217.012.0136%34%-11.9-9.3-6.2 21.428.86590JPShibaura2,0674,70020.015.84.43.48%38%-3.8-6.6-8.647.824.16315JPTowa1,2442,62923.018.72.72.443%87%-1.7-0.2-3.94.422.3BESINLBESI24,16625664.442.433.323.828%139%2.412.836.896.791.3522HKASMPT9,03516943.529.43.83.5150%49%-4.322.263.3122.4117.8042700KSHanmi18,307288,00095.057.431.223.336%34%-23.70.542.2133.2126.1小计43.531.49.77.729%38%-10.5-7.34.660.152.1注：美股以外数据截至2026/5/19收盘，美股数据截至2026/5/18收盘Factset收盘价PEPBEPS收盘价PEPBEPS增速股价变动（%）（百当地货币）2026E2027E2026E2027E2025A2026E1W30D90D180DYTDMemory005930KS三星电子1,172,588275,5006.85.42.71.933%516%-1.327.552.0173.9129.8000660KSSK海力士829,4421,745,0006.24.73.92.2119%369%-4.954.798.3205.6168.0MUUS美光768,59668211.76.86.53.3538%605%-11.149.861.9238.5138.8SNDKUSSandisk197,4051,33320.67.610.74.6na2062%-8.244.7122.0580.2461.6285AJPKIOXIA171,10249,7706.75.85.53.097%626%8.063.0132.4339.1377.0小计6.85.85.53.0108%605%-4.643.275.5232.6176.4LogicNVDAUS英伟达5,384,70822226.719.717.210.160%75%0.710.218.323.119.2AVGOUS博通1,991,92242137.323.218.612.140%65%0.33.526.121.321.6AMDUSAMD7,1704182.968.43.63.431%39%14.737.59.438.023.6INTCUS英特尔543,662108100.572.14.54.3423%156%-10.357.9137.9221.7193.1QCOMUS高通214,63720419.019.38.58.418%11%-3.249.542.227.619.1MRVLUSMarvell147,90716944.130.99.27.981%35%2.720.9113.6120.398.82454TW联发科160,3163,15548.126.111.89.61%1%-14.763.970.1166.2120.6小计44.126.19.28.440%39%-0.413.931.140.034.3uto/工业/模拟TXNUS德州仪器273,57430139.633.915.214.35%39%1.830.834.696.073.3ADIUSADI204,35241936.531.66.05.822%47%-0.312.720.885.954.3NXPIUSNXP73,64129219.916.66.05.410%24%-0.935.022.958.434.4MCHPUSMicrochip50,1969329.522.77.66.925%92%-5.117.817.389.245.6ONUS安森美42,88610935.625.85.85.541%31%5.131.854.9143.7102.1MBLYUSMobileye2,283934.426.00.90.944%25%1.218.72.6-13.3-10.56723JP瑞萨41,3233,50916.314.52.32.1123%853%-6.425.518.590.064.0IFXNTRInfineon99,1736537.325.34.64.1