世界银行-印度尼西亚经济展望 管理风险释放生产力 Indonesia Economic Prospects,June 2026 Managing Risks,Unlocking Productivity

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INDONESIA

ECONOMIC

IEP

PROSPECTS

ManagingRisks,

UnlockingProductivity

June2026

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TableofExecutiveA.2.ThePolicyA....3OutlookA4Policy

ContentsSummaryStanceandRisksPriorities

TableofContents

A.1.Recent

Economic

Developments

LISTOFFIGURES,TABLES,ANDBOXES IV

PREFACE VI

ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMS VII

EXECUTIVESUMMARY· ·1

A.ECONOMICUPDATE

7

1.RecentEconomicDevelopments 7

2.ThePolicyStance· 16

3.OutlookandRisks·

20

4.PolicyPriorities ·22

REFERENCES 33

CLICKTHESIDE

BUTTONSTOGOTO

THESECTIONYOU

WISHTOREAD.

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LISTOFFIGURES,TABLES,ANDBOXES

FIGURES

A.1.Recent

Economic

Developments

FigureA.1:Surginggovernmentconsumptionoffsetsweakercontributionofnetexports.9

FigureA.2:Servicesandmanufacturingdrovegrowthwhileagricultureeased.9

FigureA.3:SupplyconstraintsforeshadowslowingmomentumintoMay.9

FigureA.4:Foodandadministeredpricesdroverecentinflationdynamics.9

FigureA.5:Indonesiafacedatwo-stageshockinearly2026:domesticfinancialvolatilityfollowedby9

widerspilloversfromtheMiddleEastconflict.

FigureA.6:Goodsimportsgrewatafasterpacethanexports…11 FigureA.7:…primarilydrivenbyaccelerationincapitalgoodsimports.11 FigureA.8:Slowinggoodsexportsin2026wasduetolowervolumes.11 FigureA.9:TheBoPdeficitwidenedonalargerCADandotherinvestmentoutflows.11FigureA.10:Otherinvestmentoutflowsweredrivenbyhigherresidents’savingsabroadincashand11

deposits.

FigureA.11:WithlowNPLandhighCapitalAdequacyRatio,bankassetqualityremainshealthy.13 FigureA.12:Volatilityintheequitymarketandportfolioflowshaveincreasedlately.14 FigureA.13:Peoplearerelativelylessworriedaboutlosingjobsnow.14 FigureA.14:Thefiscalpositionremainstighterthaninrecentyears.17FigureA.15:Revenuecollectionreboundedfromalowbase,supportedbybothtaxandnon-tax-17

revenue.

FigureA.16:Meanwhile,expendituregrewatafasterpace,drivenbyMBGprogram,energy18 compensation,andfront-loadedspending.

FigureA.17:Bondyieldsroseamidfiscalconcernsandexternalpressures.18

FigureA.18:TheRupiahunderperformeditsemergingmarketpeersyear-to-May.19

FigureA.19:SRBIpostedpositivenetissuancesbetweenNov-25andMay-26.19

FigureA.20:Publicdebtisprojectedtoremainbelowthestatutorydebtceiling.22

FigureA.21:Grossfinancingneedsareexpectedtostaymanageable.22

FigureA.22:Indonesia’srevenueremainslowcomparedwithupper-middle-incomepeers.23

FigureA.23:Indonesia’spublicinvestmentmultiplierishigherthanthatofpublicconsumption.23

FigureA.24:Energysubsidyandcompensationspendingriseswithoilprices.25

FigureA.25:Fuelsubsidiesdisproportionatelybenefithigher-incomehouseholds.25

FigureA.26:Targetedcashtransferscanoffsetthepovertyimpactofsubsidyreform.26

FigureA.27:Fiscalsavingsfromfuelsubsidyreformsbuildovertime.26

FigureA.28:Recyclingsavingsmakessubsidyreformprogressiveacrossincomegroups.26

FigureA.29:Centralgovernmentaccountsforthelargestshareofpubliccapitalexpenditure.27

FigureA.30:Centralgovernmentcapitalspendingisconcentratedininfrastructure-relatedfunctions.27

FigureA.31:Capitalbudgetexecutionremainsbackloadedtowardyear-end.27

FigureA.32:Capitalbudgetexecutionvarieswidelyacrossprovincesanddistricts.28

FigureA.33:Indonesia’stransportservicesareamongthemostrestrictiveinASEAN.30

FigureA.34:Delaysforshipsinportarelongandunevenrelativetoregionalpeers.30

FigureB.1.1:Fewerworkersareearningmiddle-classlivelihoods.15

FigureB.1.2:Moreeducatedworkersarebeingabsorbedintoinformalemployment.15

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TableofExecutiveA.2.ThePolicyA....3OutlookA4Policy

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TABLES

Table1:ManagingRisksandUnlockingProductivity:PriorityReformAreas4

TableA.1:BI’sSevenStrategiestoSupportRupiah19

TableA.2:SelectedMacroeconomicIndicators32

A.1.Recent

Economic

Developments

BOXES

BoxA.1:Indonesia’sRecentTradeAgreements11

BoxA.2:LaborMarketStructuralLong-TermTrends15

BoxA.3:MonitoringLogisticswithKPIs:BuildingIndonesia’sLogisticsPerformanceDashboard30

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Tableof

Contents

Executive

Summary

Preface

A.1.Recent

Economic

Developments

TheIndonesiaEconomicProspects(IEP)isabi-annualWorldBankreportthatassessesrecentmacroeconomicdevelopments,theoutlook,andrisks,aswellasspecificdevelopmentchallengesfortheIndonesianeconomy.TheIEPaimstoinformthepublicpolicydebateandservesabroadaudienceincludingthegeneralpublic,government,privatesector,civilsocietyorganizations,andotherdomesticandinternationalstakeholders.

A.2.ThePolicyA.3.OutlookA..4Policy

StanceandRisksPriorities

TheIEPisaproductoftheWorldBankJakartaoffice.Thereportisco-ledbyWaelMansour(SeniorEconomist),MehwishAshraf(SeniorEconomist),MochamadPasha(SeniorEconomist),andDavidKnight(LeadEconomist),undertheguidanceofCarolynTurk(DivisionDirectorforIndonesiaandTimor-Leste),LalitaMoorty(RegionalPracticeDirector),andMarcoHernandez(PracticeManager).

DevianaDjalilprovidedadministrativesupportandcoordinatedtheorganizationofthereportlaunchevent.ThedisseminationwasorganizedbyGbSuryaNingnagaraandMaulyatiN.SlametundertheguidanceofLestariBoedionoQureshi.ThereportwasdesignedandtypesetbyArsianti.

ThereportwaspreparedbyWaelMansour,DwiEndahAbriningrum,IndiraMaulaniHapsari,MehwishAshraf,RatihDwiRahmadanti,RullyPrassetya,andDavidKnight.InputswereprovidedbyLamiaaBennisandMochamadPasha(Logisticsanalysis),OuNie,NeniLestariandJingZhao(Financialsectoranalysis),SaileshTiwari,BambangSuharnokoSjahrir,RirinSalwaPurnamasari,SamuelNursamsu,MahdiBarouni,DirkHeine,andFaustynaGawryluk(Subsidy,povertyandlaboranalysis),RamaKrishnanVenkateswaran,CutDianRahmiDwiAgustina,ShomikhoRaha,andAndyanDiwangkari(Publicinvestmentmanagementanalysis),JuanM.Hernandez,andMadiSarsenbayev(Debtsustainabilityanalysis).ErgysIslamajandGitanjaliKumarprovidedvaluablecomments.

ThisreportisavailablefordownloadinEnglishandIndonesianvia:

/iep

Previousreporteditions:

•December2025:

DigitalFoundationsforGrowth

•June2025:

People-FirstHousing:ARoadmapfromHomestoJobstoProsperityinIndonesia

•December2024:

FundingIndonesia’sVision2045

ToreceivetheIEPandrelatedpublicationsbyemail,pleasecontact

ddjalil@

.Forquestionsand

comments,pleasecontact

mashraf3@

and

mpasha1@

ForinformationabouttheWorldBankanditsactivitiesinIndonesia,pleasevisit:

/id

/worldbank

WB_AsiaPacific

/company/the-world-bank

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AbbreviationsandAcronyms

APBNAnggaranPendapatandanBelanjaNegara(StateBudget)

A.1.Recent

Economic

Developments

ASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

BappenasBadanPerencanaanPembangunanNasional(NationalDevelopmentPlanningAgency)

BIBankofIndonesia

BPBUMNBadanPengaturanBadanUsahaMilikNegara(State-OwnedEnterprisesRegulatoryAgency)

BPSBadanPusatStatistik(CentralBureauofStatistics)

CADCurrentAccountDeficit

CDSCreditDefaultSwap

CTASCoreTaxAdministrationSystem

DTSENDataTunggalSosialdanEkonomiNasional(NationalSingleSocialandEconomicData)

EUEuropeanUnion

FDIForeignDirectInvestment

GDPGrossDomesticProduct

GFNGrossfinancingneeds

GIRGrossinternationalreserves

ICTInformationandCommunicationTechnology

IMFInternationalMonetaryFund

JCIJakartaCompositeIndex

MBGMakanBergiziGratis(freenutritiousmeals)

MoFMinistryofFinance

mma3-monthmovingaverage

MSCIMorganStanleyCapitalInternational

NEERNominalEffectiveExchangeRate

NLENationalLogisticsEcosystem

NPLNon-PerformingLoans

OECDOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment

PIMPublicInvestmentManagement

PSNNationalStrategicProjects

REERRealEffectiveExchangeRate

RPJMNRencanaPembangunanJangkaMenengahNasional(NationalMediumTermDevelopmentPlan)

RRRReserveRequirementRatio

SAKERNASSurveiAngkatanKerjaNasional(NationalLaborForceSurvey)

SNGsSubnationalGovernments

SOEState-OwnedEnterprise

SRBISertifikatRupiahBankIndonesia(MonetarySecurities)

SUSENASSurveiSosialEkonomiNasional(NationalSocioeconomicSurvey)

TRSTimeReleaseStudy

UNCTADUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment.

USTheUnitedStatesofAmerica

VATValueAddedTax

yoyyear-on-year

ExecutiveSummary

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ExecutiveSummary

Indonesiaentered2026withstrongeconomicmomentum,supportedbyresilientdomesticdemand.Theeconomyhadgainedspeedthroughthesecondhalfof2025,andthiscarry-overpropelledGDPgrowthto5.6percentyear-on-yearinQ12026—itsstrongestquarterlyperformancesinceQ22021.Householdconsumption,whichaccountsformorethanhalfofGDP,remainedtheprimarygrowthdriver.SpendingwasboostedbyanearlierRamadanandEid,front-loadeddisbursementofpublic-sectorholidaybonuses,andaccelerationofthefreenutritiousmeals(MBG)program.Governmentconsumptionalsorosesharply,contributingitslargestsharetogrowthsinceQ42010.Ontheinvestmentside,grossfixedcapitalformationgrewby6.0percent(upfrom5.1percentin2025),supportedbymonetaryeasing,ongoingdownstreamingprojects,andtherolloutofpriorityprograms.High-frequencyindicators—includinga9.9percentriseinmotorvehicleandrecreationalgoodssales(3-monthmovingaverage)—confirmedbroad-basedmomentumheadingintotheyear.

However,twosuccessiveshocksinearly2026testedthisresilience,firstthroughfinancialmarketsandthenthroughtherealeconomy.

•InlateJanuary,MSCIannounceditisconsideringfreezingIndonesiansecuritiesinitsemerging-marketindex,citingopaqueownershipstructuresandlowfree-floatlevels.

Thisannouncement,comingontheheelsofalarger-than-expected2025fiscaldeficit(2.9percentofGDP)andsovereigncredit-ratingoutlookdowngradesbyMoody’sandFitch,triggeredsharpequitysell-offs,a10percentdropintheJakartaCompositeIndex,andtwotradinghalts.Thechannelwasdirect:weakermarketconfidencereducedcapitalinflows,depressedassetprices,andtighteneddomesticfinancingconditions.

•Then,onFebruary28,theescalationoftheconflictintheMiddleEastdeliveredasecond,broadershock.BrentcrudesurgedaboveUS$100perbarrelinmid-March—itshighestsince2022—transmittingthroughmultiplechannels:higherenergycostsfedintoinflationandfiscalsubsidybills;supplychaindisruptionslengthenedinputdeliverytimestotheirlongestsinceOctober

A.1.Recent

Economic

Developments

2021;thepost-conflictriseinriskpremiawidenedcreditdefaultswapspreadsby23basispoints,whileelevatedglobalbondyieldskeptfinancingconditionschallenging;andaweakerglobalgrowthoutlookdampeneddemandforIndonesianexports.BrentcrudehaseasedtoaroundUS$97perbarrelasofJune3butremainsvolatileamiduncertaintyoveroilsupplyandshippingflows.

Despitethesepressures,domesticdemandinQ12026provedlargelyresilient—thoughpressuresarebuildingforthequartersahead.Thereal-economyimpactofbothshocksmaterializedwithalag,meaningthatconsumptionandinvestmentinQ1werelargelydrivenbymomentumandfiscalstimulusratherthanbytheemergingexternalheadwinds.PortfoliooutflowsreachedUS$1.7billion(0.1percentofGDP)butwerelargelyoffsetbysimilarforeigninflowsintoBImonetarysecurities(SRBIs),whiletheRupiahdepreciatedby6.0percent(year-to-May)andfellto18,000perUS$inearlyJune.Thesefinancial-channeleffectshadnotyetfullytransmittedtohouseholdandfirmspendingdecisionsbytheendofQ1.Onthesupplyside,servicesremainedthemainengineofgrowth—retail,transport,hospitality,finance,andICTaccountedfor57percentofQ1outputgrowth—supportedbyelevatedholidaymobilityandanearly-yeartourismrecovery.Manufacturingalsocontributed,withmetalproductsandelectronicsexpandingby10.3and7.0percent,respectively.However,byMay,Indonesia’sPMIhadfallenfrom53.8to50signalingthatsupply-chaindisruptionsandrisinginputcostswerebeginningtoweighontherealeconomy.OnMay13,MSCI’sdecisiontoimposerestrictivemeasuresonselectedIndonesiansecuritiesaddedtomarketpressures,withupcomingindexremovalsexpectedtoreduceIndonesia’sMSCIweightandraisetheriskoffurthercapitaloutflowsifinvestorconfidenceweakensfurther.

Inflationrosethroughearly2026,reflectingthesequentiallayeringofdomesticdemandpressuresandtheexternaloilshock.BeforetheMiddleEastconflict,inflationhadalreadybeenfirminggraduallythrough2025andintoearly2026,drivenbystrongdomesticconsumptiondynamicsandseasonalfoodpriceincreaseslinkedtoRamadanandEid.Theoilshock

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thenaddedasecondlayerofpressurethroughhigherfuel,transport,andlogisticscosts.HeadlineinflationpeakedinFebruary2026beforemoderatingto3.1percentyear-on-yearinMay—withinBankIndonesia’s2.5±1percenttargetband.Foodinflationreached4.9percent,whilecoreinflationedgedupfrom2.2to2.3percent,indicatingagradualfirmingofunderlyingpricepressures.Thegovernmentrespondedwithshort-termmeasures—bymaintainingsubsidizedretailfuelprices,cappingairfareincreases,waivingVATondomesticeconomy-classairtickets,andreducingaviationfuelprices—whichhelpedcontainnear-termpass-throughbutincreasedfiscalcosts.Thisillustratesarecurringtrade-off:suppressingpriceadjustmentprotectshouseholdpurchasingpowertodaybutnarrowsthefiscalspaceavailableforpriorityspendingtomorrow.

Labormarketconditionsimprovedalongsidetheearly-yeargrowthrebound,butjobqualityremainsapersistentstructuralissue.Employmentroseby1.9millionbetweenAugust2024andAugust2025,andunemploymentedgeddownto4.9percent.However,nearlyhalfofthenewjobswereabsorbedintolower-productivitysectors—agricultureandaccommodation/foodservices—whilehigher-skillsectorssuchasfinancialservicesstagnatedorcontracted.Underemployment,definedasworkerswhoareemployedbutworkingfewerhoursthandesired,standsat32.7percentandhasbeengraduallyrisingsince2022,pointingtopersistentunderlyingweaknessesinjobquality.Realwagesformedium-andhigh-skilledworkershavedeclinedbyapproximately1–2percentperyearsince2018,andtheshareofworkersearningmiddle-classincomeshasfallensharply,from14.5percentin2018tojustover7percentin2025.Thesetrendsunderscoreastructuralmismatch:theeconomyisgeneratingemployment,butnotenoughproductive,well-payingjobsneededtosustainupwardmobilityandexpandthemiddleclass.

OutlookandRisks

GDPgrowthisprojectedtomoderateto5.0percentin2026,asexternalpressuresweighoninvestmentandexports,beforerecoveringto5.2percentin2027–28.The2026projectionreflectsstronger-than-expectedQ1outcomesandfrontloadedpublicspending,ratherthanamorebenignexternalenvironmentorassessmentofrisks.Privateconsumptionisexpectedtocontinuegrowingat

around5.0percent,supportedbyfiscalstimulus,whilegovernmentconsumptionrises(8.7percent).However,relianceonpublicconsumptionasanear-termgrowthcushioncarriesrisks,givenlimitedfiscalspaceandrisingsubsidycostsamidthestatutoryfiscalrule.ThebaselineassumesthattheMiddleEastconflictremainscontainedbutpersistentthrough2026,withoil-marketdisruptionsandshippingfrictionskeepingBrentcrudeelevatedatUS$94perbarrel–US$24above2026budgetassumption.Globalmonetaryconditionsareexpectedtoremainrelativelyrestrictive,withelevatedbondyieldsandriskpremiasensitivetorenewedshocks.Externaldemandisprojectedtosoftenin2026beforegraduallyrecoveringin2027–28.

Indonesia’smedium-termgrowthprospectshingeonthesuccessfulimplementationofstructuralreformsandtheeasingofexternalheadwinds.

Themedium-termrecoveryispredicatedoneasingcommodity-marketdisruptions,strongerprivatecreditgrowth,accelerationofDanantara’sinvestmentplans,andreformeffortsunderthegovernment’s“debottlenecking”agenda.Themedium-termforecastshouldbereadagainstIndonesia’sestimatedpotentialgrowthofaround4.2percent.Recentgrowthhasbeensupportedbydemand-sideimpulses,includingfiscalstimulusandgovernment-directedspending.Withoutproductivity-enhancingreforms,theseimpulsesmayliftgrowthtemporarilybutareunlikelytoraisetheeconomy’ssustainablegrowthrate.Theprojectedrecoveryto5.2percentin2027–28isthereforereform-contingent.InflationisprojectedtoremainwithinBankIndonesia’stargetrange,thoughfoodandenergypricerisksremainelevated.

Theoutlookissubjecttosignificantrisks,predominantlyexternal.Onthedownside,amoreprolongeddisruptiontooilsupplyandshippingflowswouldtransmitthroughmultiplechannels:higherenergyandfertilizerpriceswouldraiseinflation,subsidycosts,andimportbills;weakerglobaldemandwouldreduceexportsandFDI;andelevatedbondyieldsandhigherriskpremiawouldincreaseborrowingcosts,putpressureontheRupiah,andcompressfiscalspace.Inthisscenario,GDPgrowthcouldbe0.2–0.3percentagepointslowerin2027–28.Domestically,limitedimplementationofstructuralreformswouldexacerbatelabormarketweaknesses,constrainmiddle-classjobcreation,andaddpressureonhouseholdconsumption.Conversely,upsideriskswouldarisemainlyfromfaster-than-expectedrecovery

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inoilsupplyandshippingflows:loweroilprices,improvedtermsoftrade,andrecoveringinvestorsentimentcouldliftGDPgrowthby0.2–0.4percentagepointsin2026.Additionaltailwindscouldcomefromhighercommoditywindfalls,quickerimplementationofrecentlyconcludedtradeagreements,andsustainedderegulationreforms.

PolicyPriorities

Sustaininggrowthandcreatingbetterjobswouldrequirepoliciesthatmanagenear-termriskswhileunlockingproductivity.Indonesiafacesamorechallengingexternalenvironment,narrowerfiscalspace,andpersistentconstraintstojobquality.Thepolicychallengeisthereforetwofold:preservemacroeconomicstabilityandinvestorconfidenceinthenearterm,whileacceleratingreformsthatraiseproductivity,competitiveness,andthequalityofjobcreationoverthemediumterm.Theseprioritiesarealignedwiththethreemutuallyreinforcingpillarsofthe2026IndonesiaCountryGrowthandJobsReport:strengtheningfoundationalinfrastructurethroughsoundmacroeconomicmanagementandexpandedfiscalspace;enablingbusinessthroughlowercostsandmorepredictableregulation;andmobilizingprivatecapitalthroughstrongerinvestorconfiden