mckinsey -首席执行官如何驾驭贸易新时代 How CEOs can navigate the new era of trade

June2026

Mckunsey

&company

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade

AI,geopoliticalrealignment,andshiftingcapitalflowsareredrawingtradecorridorsandreshapingcompetitiveadvantage—forcingleaderstorethinkwhereandhowtheygrow.

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade2

Tarifftumult.Shiftinggeopoliticalalliances.AIacceleration.Structuralshiftsarereshaping

globaltrade.Onthisepisodeof

TheMcKinseyPodcast

,McKinseySeniorPartner

Shubham

Singhal

andMcKinseyPartner

JeongminSeong

speakwithGlobalEditorialDirectorLucia

Rahillyabouthowtoadapttothecurrentphaseofglobaltradereconfiguration—fromwheretomanufacturetosupplychaindecisions—andhowbesttoinvest.

Inthesecondhalfofthisepisode,McKinseySeniorPartner

KateSmaje

joinsLuciatoanswersomeaudiencequestionsfromarecent

McKinseyLivewebinar

,basedonthesecondeditionofthebook

Rewired

,abouthowtotransformyourorganizationintheageofdigitalandAI.

TheMcKinseyPodcastiscohostedbyLuciaRahillyandRobertaFusaro.

Thisepisodehasbeenadaptedfromour

McKinseyLivewebinarseries

.

Thefollowingtranscripthasbeeneditedforclarityandlength.

Thenewlogicofglobaltrade

LuciaRahilly:2025deliveredamassiveshocktotrade.WesawthehighestUStariffsin

generations,changinguptradedynamicsand,perhapsmostvisibly,pushingsomethinglike

$165billionintradeawayfromtheUS–Chinacorridor.Andnow,in2026,thedisruptionshave

continued,includingacuteinstability,let’ssay,intheStraitofHormuz,whichis,ofcourse,a

criticalchokepointformorethanafifthoftheworld’sseaborneoilandgastrade.Nevertheless,Iwassupersurprisedtolearnthattradecontinuedtogrowin2026,despitewhatlookedlikea

reallyturbulentyear.Shubham,talktous.WhatdidtheMGI[McKinseyGlobalInstitute]researchrevealaboutthestatusofglobaltrade?

ShubhamSinghal:Wehavetorememberthatcountriestradebecauseeverycountryneedssomethinganothercountryhas,evenifwechangeafewpolicies.Somepeoplesay,“Oh,it’sfragmenting.It’llregionalizeorlocalize.”Infact,tradeistravelingoverlongergeographic

distances.Itisn’tlocalizingorregionalizing.It’srewiringtowardshortergeopoliticaldistances—thatis,thealignmentbetweencountriesandtheirforeignpolicies.

Andweareseeingthisalignmenthappen,withmoregeopoliticallyalignedcountriestrading

morewithoneanother.Thebiggestexample,ofcourse,being,asyousaid,US–Chinadirect

trade.Also,somepeoplepaintwithonebroadbrushstrokewhentalkingabouttrade.ButatMGI,welookedatthreedifferentviews.

Oneiswhetherthetradeorcategoryisinacriticalarea.Wetalkaboutcriticalmineralsasoneofthose,orsemiconductors.Second,isitconcentratedproduction?Inotherwords,isthe

productionofthose,orthesourceofthose,concentratedinonearea?Andthenlastly,areyoureceivingthatfromgeostrategicallyunalignedcountries?

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade3

IfyouweretotakeUSimportsandapplyallthreeofthosefactors,5percentofUSimportswouldfallintothecategoryofbeingverycritical,probablynational-securitysensitive,

concentrated,andcomingfromageostrategicallyunalignedcountry.

Sotherewiringismuchmoresurgicalthansaying100percentoftradehastoberewiredto,inthiscaseandforthosepurposes,5percent.Theworldisseekingbalance.JusttaketheUSandChina,forexample.TheUSprobablyconsumesfarmoreandproducesfarlesstodaythanit

usedto.

China,ontheotherhand,producesalot,whiledomesticconsumptionstillhasn’tquitecaughtup.Andinallofthediscussionsoverthelastyear,thefocuswasongoods.Butweshould

understandthattradeinservices,data,andintellectualproperty[IP]isalsoquitesignificant.Andweseethosecontinuingtogrowandreconfigureintermsofwheretheyhappen.

LuciaRahilly:Atahighlevel,couldyousaysomethingabouttheotherprimarychallengesandrisksleadersareconfrontinginthethroesofallthisgeopoliticalflux?

ShubhamSinghal:Weseetheinterplaywithdomesticenvironmental,labor,andimmigration

policies.Ononehand,there’sthedesiretosolvesomeoftheclimatechangeandotherissuesweface.Ontheotherhand,energysecuritymatters.Sohowdowethinkaboutthatas

balancingforces?Weseealotofimportandexportandcapitalcontrolsplayingout,particularlyinthoseconcentratedarenas.

We’veseenthesemiconductordebates.We’veseencurrencymovements.Howthoseare

managedclearlyaffectstrade.Now,withRussia’sinvasionofUkraineandtheconflictintheMiddleEast,thesecurityenvironmentfullyandcompletelyplaysarole.

Countriesareincreasinglyfocusedontheresilienceoftheirnationalsecurityanddefense

capabilities,whichisleadingtoalotofforeigninvestmentrestrictions,sanctions,embargoes,andthelike.YoualsoseethisplayingoutinAIandthedebateontechnologytransfer.

HowshouldyouthinkaboutIPdiffusion?

Theimportanceofcybersecurity

?Andthen,asyou

said,youseethosedynamicsimpactingchokepoints,includingeconomicandcriticalchoke

points.Butthere’salsoalotofmultilateralcooperation,andalliancescomeaboutaspartofthis.

Becauseasconflictshappen,thealliancesalsoshiftaround.Andwiththemshiftsthemovementnotjustofdefensetechnology,butalsooftradeandotherarenasofcooperationamongmajoreconomies.

Howshiftingtradecorridorsarereshapinggrowth

LuciaRahilly:Jeongmin,let’szerobackinontradespecifically.Walkusthroughtheforcesthataredoingthemost,inyourview,toreconfigurethetradelandscape.

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade4

JeongminSeong:Threereallystandout:AI,China,andtheriseofconnectingeconomies.Let

metalkthroughtheseonebyone.Theoverallsizeof

AI-relatedtrade

isrelativelymoderate.Butitaccountedforaboutone-thirdofglobaltradegrowthin2025.AndthatgrowthwasevenmorepronouncedintheUnitedStates.

That’sbecausetheUSaccountedforroughlyhalfofglobalnewdatacenterconstructionlastyear.Andthistrendiscontinuinginto2026,creatingamassiverippleeffectglobally.For

example,manyKoreansarequitehappythesedaysbecausethestockmarketrosebymorethan70percent,largelydrivenbytwosemiconductorcompanies.

PeopleinTaiwanarealsohappybecauseitsGDPgrewataround14percentinquarterone,

again,drivenlargelybytheAI-relatedvaluechain.SoAIisthefirstbigfactor.ThesecondfactorisChina.ButinthenewChinastory,it’snotjustabout“MadeinChina”;it’salsoabout“China

inside.”ThatisbecauseChinaisbecomingthefactorytothefactories.Solastyear,despiteveryhightariffs,Chinaactuallyhadarecord-hightradesurplus.

Butifyoubreakitdown,China’sexportsoffinalconsumptiongoodsactuallydeclined.Butexportsofintermediategoods—whicharebasicallyinputsintoadditionalproduction

processes—grewbyaround9percent.

AndclosetohalfofChina’stradeiswithso-calledGlobalSoutheconomies,oremerging

economies.Chinaisenablingtheseeconomiestobecomethefactoriesoftheworld.Andthistrendis,again,continuinginto2026.

Thethirdfactoristheriseoftheconnectingeconomies,mostnotablyASEAN[theAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations]economies.Theyarebasicallyplayingtheroleofmatchmakerfor

theglobalsupplychain,keepingitfrombreakingup.In2025,ASEANexportsgrewbyabout14percent.Importsalsogrewbyabout11percent.Butwhatwasinterestingwaswherethisgrowthwascomingfrom.

Ontheexportside,theUnitedStatescontributedaboutone-thirdofexportgrowth.Onthe

importside,Chinarepresentedabouthalfoftotalimportgrowth.Sothebigquestionfortheseconnectingeconomiesishowfarthiscango,andwhethertheycanaddmeaningfullocalvalue.

Businessleaderswillneedtoconstantlyreassesshowtradecorridorsareshiftingandrepositiontheirglobalfootprintaccordingly.

LuciaRahilly:There’saviewthatChina’sexportgrowth,whichyoujustbrokedown,isdrivenlargelybypricecuts.What’sreallygoingonthere?

JeongminSeong:There’ssometruthtothatnarrative.It’softensaidthatChina’sdomesticcompetitionisveryfierce,squeezingmarginsandpushingcompaniestoexportmore

aggressively.Butthatisonlypartofthestory.

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade5

Ifyoulookatthedata,pricesforfinalconsumptiongoodshavefallenbyabout8percent.Butifyoulookupstreamatintermediateandcapitalgoods,priceonaveragestayedrelatively

stable—andinsomecasesevenincreasedfurther.Sotheansweristhatit’spartlytrue,partlynottrue.

LuciaRahilly:Let’smoveontoforeigndirectinvestment[FDI].Jeongmin,howshouldleadersbereadingtheFDIsignalsrightnow?Andiscapitalflowinginwaysthatreinforcethesetradeshifts,orcutagainstthem?

JeongminSeong:Idon’tmakepredictions,becausepredictionswouldbewrong.ButIcanoffersomehelpfulleadingindicatorstomonitor.

Inmyview,thatisFDI.Moneymovesfasterthanphysicalnetworks.We

analyzedabout

200,000FDIannouncements

andfoundthatthereconfigurationalongthegeopoliticallineswespokeaboutishappeningfasterthantrade.

Infact,it’sgrowingtwiceasfastastrade.Therearetwomaindriversbehindthis.Oneissectorreconfiguration.About75percentofFDIisnowgoingintowhatwecall“future-shaping

sectors”—forexample,AIinfrastructure,advancedmanufacturing,andtheresourcesthatpowerthem.

Thesecondisgeographicreconfiguration.TheUSbecameamagnetforFDI.Ontheotherhand,FDIintoChinadeclinedbyabouttwo-thirds.However,Chinastillmaintainsitslevelofoutboundinvestmentandthereforeremainsamajoroutboundinvestor.Theimplicationforbusiness

leadersisclear:FDIcanbeaverycredible,forward-lookingindicator.Therefore,useitto

anticipatepotentialchangesearlyandinformdecisionsonmanufacturingfootprintsandsupplychains.

Adaptabilityisacompetitiveadvantage

LuciaRahilly:That’sanicesegueintoimplicationsforreadersandhowtheycanusethis

information.Itcanfeelchallengingtopredicthowthestructuralshiftswillplayoutinthenearandlongterm.Practicallyspeaking,whatcounselwouldyouofferexecutiveshere?Shubham,thisone’sforyou.

ShubhamSinghal:WejustdidaroundofCEOinterviewsoverthelastfewmonthsandreallysoughttounderstandthecharacteristicsofcompaniesnavigatingthis.

Fivethingsemerged.Thefirstwasonmanagingtheimageofdisruptiontoearnings.Whatwefoundinterestingabouttheleadingcompanieswasthattheywentbeyondthedefensive,

asking,“HowdoIactuallydrivetheproductivity,givenInowhavethissignal?Ihavetolookintoit.WhatelsecanIquestionandimprove?”

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade6

Theywentonestepfurtherandasked,“IfIimprovemyeconomics,therewillbeothersintheindustrywhowon’tkeeppace.Couldthosecompaniesbecomeavailabletobeacquired,orcouldwetakeshareawayfromthem?”

Thesecondexamplewasthatthesefolkswerethinkingaboutcapitaldeployment.Theyasked

themselves,“Whereacrossthedifferentscenarioswouldwebemakingafairlygoodbet?Whereisthebetnotclearintermsofifthesescenarioscomeoutagainstus?”

Now,theoperationspointisobvious.Everyone’sthoughtaboutthisandabouthowtomanageit.Globaloperationsaremoreresilient.I’llgiveyouanexample.WhentheUSandCanadagotintothattitfortatontariffs,Canadaputtariffsonchocolates.

OneglobalcompanystartedshippingchocolatesfromEuropetoCanadaandtooktheirUSproductionandshippeditelsewhere.That’saverysimple,triteexample.Butwe’veseenthisacrossindustries,withfolkssaying,“DoIhaveaglobalfootprint?Ihaveglobalmarkets,

thereforeIhaveglobalproduction.”

Thisideaofadaptabilityofyourproductionnetwork—andtheagilitywithinit—hasbecomeveryimportant.Butglobalproductionhasbeenmuchmoreresilient.Growthistheotherone.

Jeongmintalkedaboutthesheershiftsweareseeingingrowthratesofdifferenttradecorridors.

Whenwesaytradecorridors,notonlydowemeanthetradebetweentwocountries,butalsotradeatthecategorylevel.Aligningwiththosegrowingcorridorsliterallyputsyouinthat

double-digitgrowth,whichisveryimportant.Ofcourse,ontheflipside,youcouldbeinthingsthataredecliningquitesignificantlyaswell.

Andthentherearesectors.Defenseisagrowingsector—weknowthat.Someofthesectors

thatJeongmintalkedaboutareforwardleaning,likeadvancedmanufacturing,energy,and

infrastructure.We’reseeingfolksleanintoalltheservicesthatgointothatandalignthemselveswiththosegrowthsectors.

Thefinalpointisthatthefasteryourorganizationcanmove,thebetteroffyouare.Enter

markets,exitmarkets,redeploycapital,moveproduction,movedifferentmarkets,andmove

people.Whenacrisiserupts,beabletorespondquickly.Whenanopportunityopensup,beabletogoafteritquickly.Thisideaofspeedwithinanorganizationisbecomingarealbasisfor

competitiveadvantageinthiseraofvolatility.

LuciaRahilly:Shubham,yougavethechocolateexample.Couldyougiveonemoreexampleofacompanythathasrespondedproactivelytothesechallenges?

ShubhamSinghal:Ithinkthereareanumberofcompaniesthataredoingagoodjob.Lastyear,asLiberationDayhappened,aglobalconsumercompanyhadthechallengeofeveryonelookingattheirsituationandsaying,“Thisisaprettymeaningfulhittoourearnings.Howshouldwe

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade7

thinkaboutit?”Theysteppedbackandsaid,“Weneedtoplanaroundthis.Weneedto

understandthescenarios.Whateventsactuallychangemydecision?HowdoIthinkaboutthatdecisionatthatpointintime?Whenthathappens,whatplansdoIhaveinplacetomove?”

Theyrewiredtheirstrategicplanningtobemuchmoreeventandscenariobased,andmuchmoreadaptable.

LuciaRahilly:ShubhamandJeongmin,thankyouforjoiningustoday.

KateSmajeanswersquestionsyousubmittedaboutAIanddigitaltransformation

LuciaRahilly:KateSmaje,congratulationsagainonthesecondeditionofRewired,our

McKinseyplaybookforwinningwithtechnologyandAI.Wefeaturedyouandoneofyour

coauthors,RobLevin,onarecentepisodeofTheMcKinseyPodcast,andwereceiveda

veritabledelugeofquestionsasaresult—welloverathousandaudiencequestions—whichwasamazing.

KateSmaje:Awesome.

LuciaRahilly:It’sahugetestamenttothesituation:executivesarelookingforcounselasthey

navigatethisincrediblyfast-changingAIeraandtrytorealizemoremeaningfulROI.Obviously,wecan’ttackleathousandquestionshere,butmanyofthesequestionsconvergearoundsimilarthemes,sowedistilledseveralofthemintoaselectionthatwe’llcoverhere.

KateSmaje:Wonderful.

LuciaRahilly:AIisevolvingandlearningfasterthanmanyofus.HowshouldleadersbethinkingaboutorganizingaroundwhatAIiscapableofnow,versuswhatitmightbecapableofinthe

future?Howcanwemanagethatoldproblemofbuildingandflyingtheplaneatthesametime?

KateSmaje:TheadviceIwouldgiveisthatyou’vegottobeinitforagenuinelydynamic,

constantlearningcycle.Youmustaskyourself,“HowcanIbethefastestlearnerhere?”IthinkthatiskeytowinninginAI.

Howdoyoumakethatnotjustanindividualeffort,butacollectiveeffort?Whataretheinsightsanddiversethinkingthatwe’regoingtogetfromoutside,andhowarewegoingtoservethatuptopeoplewithouthavingtowaitforaformaltrainingcourseortoactuallyembracetheviral

peer-to-peerelementsofthat?

We’vegottorelearnhowwelearn.ButIcomebacktothispointaboutunlearningaswell,

becauseIthinkit’snottalkedaboutenoughinthisspace.Withagenticinparticular,oneofthesuperpowersofexecutivesrightnowis,“CanIalmostreleasetheparadigms,theorthodoxiesof

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade8

howIunderstandmybusinessandask,‘Whatif?Whatifthatreallyweredifferent?Whatifthatend-to-endprocesshadhalfthestepsithastoday?WhatifagenticallowedmetobreakwhatIthoughtwasfairmarketshareanddosomethingreallyoutsizeorseismic,intermsofthelevelofchange?’”That’swhatallowsyoutoreimagine.

LuciaRahilly:ThatisaniceseguetoaquestionwegotfromanumberoffolkswhowereeitherCIOsorCIOequivalentsintheirorganization.What’ssomethingthatCIOsshouldconsiderwhenthey’reconfrontedwithCEOswhoareerringonthesideofcaution,whomaybearelesspronetoadoptthis“whatif”unlearningattitudeandwhowanttotaketheirtimevis-à-visAI

transformation?

KateSmaje:Insomeways,youcouldarguethatspeedwithouttrustwilldestroyvalue,right?

Additionally,trustwithoutspeeddestroysrelevance.Inalltheresearchwe’vedoneacross

hundredsoftransformations,wehavenotfoundasingularhighlysuccessfultransformationthatdidnothavenotonlythebuy-in,butalsothereal,genuine,hands-onleadershipoftheCEO.

Theremaybelotsofbusinessleadersinanorganization,butifyou’vegotareluctantCEO,AIadoptionisgoingtobereallytough.Inthatsituation,Ithinkitbecomesimportanttohelpthemunderstandwhyandhowthisisgoingtohelpdrivebusinessvalue.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthat,forthebroaderkindofleadershipcohorts,youmustspeaktheirlanguage,whichis,“Howisthisgoingtodrivemybusinessperformance?”Youneedtoaskyourselveswhetherthatmeansgettingtoastructurallydifferentunitcost,gettingtooutsize

marketshareorrevenuesharegains,drivingEBITDAuplift,ormaybeevenimproving

operationaloutcomes.Speakingtheirlanguageof,“ThisiswhatIwanttohelpyouto

accomplish.We’regoingtousetechnologytodothat,butreallyit’saboutbusinesschange.”

LuciaRahilly:Fromyourpointofview,areweoverestimatingAI’sabilitytodriveEBITDAincertainsectors?

KateSmaje:Thereareenoughproofpointsnowtosaythemoneyisabsolutelythere.In

the

latesteditionofthebook

,welookedatacohortofthe20mosteconomicallysuccessful

companiesusingAI,andtheaverageEBITDAupliftinthatgroup—notthetopperformer,buttheaverage—was20percentfromtheirAIinitiatives.

Andimportantly,foreverydollartheyputin,intermsofinvestmentinAI,they’regettingback,onaverage,$3inEBITDA.Butformany,thedissonanceisstilltoogreatbetweenthepromiseofAIandtherealityofhowfarthathasdrivenreal,true,tangiblebottom-lineperformance.

It’slessofanindustry-specificproblem.It’smuchmoretheheartofyourquestion:“AreweoverestimatingAI’sabilitytodrivethis?”Possibly.Becauseitisn’tthetechnology.AI

transformationis,atitsheart,apeopletransformationtogettodifferentialoutcomes.

LuciaRahilly:WhatarethetopthreeKPIsformeasuringtheimpactofAIinthecurrentmomentthatleadersshouldbelookingatmoreclosely?

HowCEOscannavigatetheneweraoftrade9

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KateSmaje:Ialwayscomebacktothequestion,“WhatareyoutryingtogetoutofAI?”That’swhyyoumustgobacktothisdomain-levelchan