KPMG -私募股权中的价值创造 从选股者到量化私募股权公司 Value creationin private equity From stock-pickers to the quant PE house

Value

creationin

private

Fromstock-pickers

tothequantPEhouse

equity

KPMG.MaketheDifference.

Valuecreationinprivateequity2

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Contents

04Executivesummary

07Thestateofprivateequity

16Implications

operationalalpha

18

TransformingPEvaluecreation:

Fivecapabilitiesforachieving

29Implementationroadmap

31Conclusion

Forward

Executivesummary

Thestateofprivateequity

Implications

TransformingPEvaluecreation

Implementationroadmap

Conclusion

Foreword

Privateequity(PE)hastraditionallyreliedonpickingtherightinvestmenttoreleasevaluethroughbusinesstransformationpost-deal.

PEreturnshavetraditionallyhadacomponentoffinancialleverage,multiplearbitrageandvaluecreation—usuallyconsideringacombinationofallthesefactorswhilstsurfingawaveoflowinterestratesandnaturalmarketexpansion.

Asthosefactorsseemtoevolveandfade—baserateshavenormalized,drypowdertopsUS$1.0tn,andthereismorethanUS$3.0tnbacklogofunsoldassetsintheexitpipeline—itbecomesclearthattheindustrywillneedtoevolveintolookingformoresophisticatedwaysofcreatingtangiblevalueineverincreasinglydisputedmarkets.

Inthissector,dataispower.Hedgefundsturnedquantsadecadeago.Public-marketactivemanagersquicklyfollowedwithfactorsignalsandalternativedata.Yetmostbuy-outhousesstillprefertotrustamoretraditionalapproachtowardsvaluecreation,basedonexpertjudgmentandfinancialanalysis.

Webelievethatasmarkettailwindsfade,operationalalpha—builtonstochasticmodelling,outside-insignalsandpredictiveintervention—willbecomearealsourceofcompetitiveadvantageandasystemicandrepeatableinvestmentedge.Webelievethatthenextdecadebelongstohousesthatcanmanufactureoperationalalpha—systematicEBITDAuplift,deliveredquicklyandatscale.

Inthispaperwesetoutafive-capabilityblueprintforvaluecreationnext-genalphaandillustrate—withdataandcasestudies—howleadingGeneralPartners(GPs)arenowtiltingtheirmodelstobecomingthenext-gen‘quantPEhouse’.

JavierRodriguez

GlobalHeadofStrategyKPMGInternational

Valuecreationinprivateequity3

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Forward

Executivesummary

Thestateofprivateequity

Implications

TransformingPEvaluecreation

Implementationroadmap

Conclusion

01Executivesummary

Anewplaybookforprivateequityvaluecreation

Traditionalstrategiesforgeneratingalphaare

underpressureasanewmarketrealityemerges.Asaresult,PEfirmsareexpectedtoplace

greateremphasisonstructured,datadriven

andprofessionalizedapproachestoidentifyanddeliveroperationalalpha.

WefeelthatPEisataninflectionpoint.Fund-raisinghascontracted(–12percentCAGR2021–2025)whileexits

havestalled,leavingmorethanUS$3.0tnofassetsstuckinthepipeline.Medianholdingperiodsnowexceedsix

years.Continuationfundshaveemergedasastop-gaptoeasedistributionpressure,buttheyonlydefertheliquiditychallenge,ratherthanresolveit.

Meanwhile,macroeconomicinstability,tariffsand

deglobalizationarepushingcapitaltowardslocalization.

Theoldleversofleverage,multipleexpansionand

internationalroll-upnolongerconsistentlydeliverthealphainvestorsexpect.Valuecreationmustnowbegroundedinoperationalexecutioninsidetheportfolio.

Webelievethismakesitanimperativetoprofessionalizethesearchanddeliveryofoperationalalpha:systematicallycapturingmarginopportunities,embeddingdata-driven

management,andpreparingassetsearlierandmorecomprehensivelyforexit.

Integratedvaluecreationprograms—prioritized,

sequencedandrigorouslyexecuted—canseparate

winnersfromlaggards.Continuationfundsmaybuytime,butonlydisciplinedtransformationatscalecanrestore

sustainablereturns.

Keytakeaways:

1Traditionalvaluecreationstrategiesarenolongersufficient.

2PEfirmsareincreasinglyexploringnewanddifferentiatedwaystounlockoperationalalpha.

3PEleadersaretakingamorestructuredanddisciplinedapproachtoidentifyinganddeliveringoperationalalpha.

4Theleadersexhibitfivekeycapabilitiesandthisreportidentifiesthem.

5Thetimetomoveisnow.

Implications

Thestateofprivateequity

Implementationroadmap

Conclusion

Executivesummary

Forward

TransformingPEvaluecreation

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PEleadersareincreasinglyfocusingonidentifyingexternal

opportunitieswithprecision,strengtheningchange-

managementcapabilities,andexecutingtransformationsatscaletonavigaterisingcapitalcostsandmarginpressures.

Datawillplayapivotalrole.Toenhancereturns,PEfirms

areexpectedtobringgreaterstructuretothewaythey

identifyanddeliveroperationalalpha.Thisshouldinvolve

identifyingpotentialvalueopportunitiesearlyinthedeal

cycleandimplementingstructuredtransformationinitiativessupportedbystrongerdatamanagement,focusedtalent

strategies,enhancedchangemanagement,andclearfinancialobjectives.

ConductedinOctober2024,KPMGsurveyed500PE

leaderstounderstandtheirstrategiesandoutlooksfor

achievinghigherreturnsamidcurrentmarketconditions.(f)ThispaperbuildsoninsightsfromthatsurveytopresentanenhancedValueCreationplaybookforPEfirms.The

playbookaimstohelpfirmstransformportfoliocompaniesintohigh-performing,scalableandstrategicallyaligned

enterprises,reinforcingtheirstandingasmarketleaders.

Source:(f)KPMG2025GlobalPEValueCreationSurvey;KPMGAnalysis.

Implications

Thestateofprivateequity

Implementationroadmap

Conclusion

Forward

Executivesummary

TransformingPEvaluecreation

Valuecreationinprivateequity6

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Aboutthesurveyandmethodology

Tobuildonthisdata,KPMGprofessionalsreviewedthemostrecentmarketdata—providedbyexternalsourcessuchas

PitchBook,MSCIandtheS&PGlobal

andMarketIntelligence—alongsideaninternalanalysisandthoughtleadership.Supportedbydetailedanalysisbyour

internalglobalservicesteam,thisreportreflectskeyinsightsgatheredfromclientworkaroundtheworld.

Finally,thedataandinsightswere

validatedbyKPMGInternational’sglobalValueCreationandStrategyteams,

leveragingtheirhands-onexperienceandrecentconversationsinthemarket.

ThefindingsinthisreportarebasedonaglobalsurveyconductedonbehalfofKPMGInternationalinOctober2024.The500respondentswereevenlysplitacrossfirmsize(fromfewerthan5peopletomorethan50)withthemajorityofrespondentsrepresentingtheVP,ManagingDirectororManagingPartnerlevel.

Whowesurveyed

Firmsize

TotalAUM,US$bn

Respondentprofile

N=500;Singleselect

VP28%

Opni18%

partnni23%

partei)01%

23%

06%

Managingdirector/Director

Generalpartner(GP)

%

33%

<5

5–50

>50

32%

Firmlocation

N=500;Singleselect

35

NorthAmerica

46%

30%EMEA

23%ASPAC

Note:NorthAmericaconsistsofUSandCanada,EMEAandIndiaconsistsofFrance,Germany,Italy,Spain,UK,otherEMAandIndia,andASPACconsistsofAustralia,China,Japan,SingaporeandotherASPACregions.

Implications

Implementationroadmap

Thestateofprivateequity

Conclusion

Forward

Executivesummary

TransformingPEvaluecreation

Thestateof

privateequity

Valuecreationinprivateequity7

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Implications

Implementationroadmap

Thestateofprivateequity

Conclusion

Forward

Executivesummary

TransformingPEvaluecreation

Valuecreationinprivateequity8

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Anewmarketreality

PEvaluecreationstrategieshaveevolvedsignificantly—itisessentialforPEcapabilitiesandoperatingmodelstokeeppace.

Theglobalvaluecreationlandscapehasshifteddramaticallyoverthepast35years.Pre-2000,PEfirmsreliedheavily

onleverageandfocusedcostrationalizationtogeneratereturns.Post-2000,strategiestocreatevaluefrom

investmentsturnedtowardsrevenueandmargingrowthamidfavorablemarketconditionsandcheapdebtwhichdroveexpansionoftheEBITDAmultiplesthatfirmswereabletoachieveonexit.

Thepost-GFCerasawfirmsadapttoamorechallenging

economicandregulatoryenvironment.Leveragemoderatedinashifttowardsustainablecapitalstructures,andholdingperiodspushedouttomaximizevaluecreation.QEandlowinterestratesrestoredliquidityinthemid-2010s,driving

marketEBITDAmultipleexpansionandvaluereturnedtoLPsonexit,withdealvaluesthehighestseensince2007.

Inthepost-COVIDandzerointerestratepolicy(ZIRP)period,thereisanurgentneedfor‘true’valuecreationthroughEBITDAmarginexpansion.Today,highinterest

rates,persistentinflation,geopoliticalvolatilityand

technologydisruptionmeanfinancialleverageand

multipleexpansionaredecliningincontributiontoPEinvestmentreturns.

Asweexplainonthenextpage,maintainingthestatusquosimplywon’tdeliverthereturnsthatinvestorsexpect.

PEinvestmentchallenges(f)

Rank1Rank2Rank3

Inflatedvaluations14%16%15%45%Interestrates12%11%16%39%

recessioiioicn18%22%14%54%

Generatingalphaintoday’s

investmentenvironmentisexpectedtomakePEfirmsthoughtfullyre-

examineandmodernizetheir

approachtovaluecreation.Anew

playbookisemerging—onethat

emphasizesdiscipline,innovation,andoperationalexcellence.99

JavierRodriguez

GlobalHeadofStrategyKPMGInternational

Source:(f)KPMG2025GlobalPEValueCreationSurvey

MOIConfully-exitedbuyouttransactionsfrom1984to2019(j)

ValueAdd(MOIC–1)(x)

Pre–20002.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2.02000–2007

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2008–2019

2.01.51.00.50.0

2022+(post-ZIRP)hypothetical1

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Revenuegrowth

GPleverageTotalvalueadded

MarketEBITDAmultipleexpansion

GPEBITDA

multiple

expansion

EBITDA

margin

expansion

Marketleverage

Note:1HypotheticalbasedonKPMGresearchandanalysis.Actual2022-2025datamayvary.

Source:(j)MatteoBinfare,GregoryBrown,AndraGhent,WendyHu,ChristianLundblad,RichardMaxwell,ShawnMunday,andLuYi.“PerformanceAnalysisandAttributionwithAlternativeInvestments.”Asof12February2022;KPMGAnalysis

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Whythestatusquowon’tdo

Highinterestratesandpersistentinflation,geopoliticalvolatilityandtechnologicaldisruptionmeanthatPEfirmsarenolongergettingtheinvestmentreturnstheyneedfromfinancialleverageandmultipleexpansionalone.

StrategicimplicationsforGPs

Greaterneedforresilience&monitoring

EBITDAupliftmustreplacelostleverage/multiples

HigherLPscrutinyonDPI,operating-partnerbenchandreal-timedatareporting

GreatersophisticationinPortCovalue

creation&monitoring

Currentstateofplay

Distributiondrought

Averageholdperiodsextend

Fund-raisingslowdown&feepressure

Growthincontinuationvehicles

Secondordereffects

Sellersanchortooldmarks;buyerspriceinnewrisks

Publicvsprivate

valuationdisconnect(IPOexitclosed)

Exitbacklogs(auctionfailures,agingassets)

Causes

Higherinterestratesandinflationinthepost-ZIRPera

Geopoliticalvolatility(tradewars,conflicts,FX)

Technologicaldisruption(AI,automation,

platformshifts)

Firstordereffects

Cashflowvolatility&higherdebtcosts

Valuationmultiple

compression&dispersion

Operating&tech

stackobsolescence

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Adeeperdiveintothecauses

Here’swhyinterestratesandinflation,geopoliticalvolatilityandtechnologicaldisruptionarefundamentallydisruptingvaluecreationstrategies.

Higherinterestratespost-ZIRP:TheUSFederalReserve’s11interestratehikes

fromMar-22toJul-23ledtoincreasedborrowingcosts.ThiscurtailedLBOactivityand

effectivelyremovedthelow-costdebtarbitrageopportunitythatdrovePEIRRsduringtheCOVIDera.Asaresult,afundinggaphasappeared,howeverLPsstillexpectsimilarIRRs,despitelowerleverage.Valuationmultipleshavealsoseencompressionanddispersionaspubliccompsde-rate.

Persistentinflation:Inflationhasdrivenincreasedinputcosts,squeezingmarginsand

reducingcashflowcoveragefordebtcovenants.VolatileCPIprintscreateuncertaintyin

discountrates,cashflowvolatilityandwiderbid-askspreads,leadingtoavaluationdisconnect.

FederalfundsrateandConsumerpriceindex(CPI)2

CPI

Federalfundrates(%)

200020052010201520202025

Federalfundrates(%)CPI

Post-ZIRP76543210

2000–2025¹

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Note:1Asof30May2025,2FederalReserveBank;

I

;3EconomicPolicyUncertainty

Geopoliticalvolatility:EscalatingChina-UStradetensions,aswellasprolongedconflictsinUkraineandtheMiddleEasthaveledtosupplychainrisksandvolatilityinearnings,

resultinginvaluationhaircuts.Sellersareanchoredtooldmarkswhilebuyerspriceinnewrisks,exacerbatingvaluationdisconnects.Cross-borderIPOandM&Aapprovalsarealsoblockingexitroutesforfirms.

Technologicaldisruption:AI,automationandplatformshiftshaveshortenedcycles

ofcompetitiveedgeandraisedexecutionrisks.Atthesametime,CAPEXinvestmentis

requiredtoreplaceobsoletelegacytechstacks.Despitemacroeconomicheadwinds,marketleaderscontinuetoinvestheavilyindigitaltransformationandautomationtodrivevalue.

Geopoliticalriskindex(GPRI)3

2000–2025¹

911attack

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

550

GPRI

Iraq

invasion

COVID-19

Tradewar+

Gazaconflict

0

200020052010201520202025

GPRIAverageGPRI

AverageEVtoEBITDAmultiple(r)

2017–2024

AverageEV/EBITDAmultiples(x)

23

18

18

15

2021202220232024

201820192020

EuropeEmergingMarketsGlobal

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

US

2017

21

27

AdjustmenttoinvestmentinAIandGenAIinthenext6–18months(f)

%ofrespondents

60%

24%

8%

2%

4%

1%

0%

Decreaseby

more

than50%

Decrease

between

26%to50%

Decreaseupto25%

Staysthesame

Increase

upto

25%

Increase

between

26%to50%

Increase

more

than50%

Source:(f)KPMG2025GlobalPEValueCreationSurvey;(r)AswathDamodaranOn-lineDatabase:EnterpriseValue/EBIT&EnterpriseValue/EBITDAMultiplesbyIndustrySector;KPMGAnalysis.

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Theimpactonthecurrentstateofplay

Inthefaceoffundamentalmarketshifts,thestateofplayforPEfirmsandvaluecreationisevolving.Here’swhatitmeansforPEfirmsandmanagers.

Distributiondroughtandfund-raisingslowdown:Withlimitedexitoptionsamidadversemarketconditions,theratioofdistributions-to-contributionshasdropped52percentfrom2013to20252,stressingLPcashbudgets.Asaresult,LPsareadoptingacautiousapproach,delayingnewcommitmentsuntiltheyreceivemeaningfuldistributionsfromexistinginvestments.DPIis increasinglybeingviewedasthekeyperformancemetric(overIRR).Consequently,fundraisingactivitieshaveslowed,fallingbyaCAGRof-12percentbetween2021and20252.

Distributiondrought(3)

Ratioofdistributionstocontributions

0.40.4

20052010201520202024

-37%

1.3

1.11.1

0.91.00.9

0.8

0.80.80.7

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

1.5

1.3

1.11.0

2005–20241

1.2

1.8

1.5

1.1

Ratioofdistributionstocontributions

Note:1AsofDecember2024,2Annualisedfigurefor2025,2GlobalPEactivitythrough31December2024,3Pitchbookaccessedon6thAugust2025

Forward

Executivesummary

Thestateofprivateequity

Implications

TransformingPEvaluecreation

Implementationroadmap

Conclusion

Capitalraised(USDb)

Withvaluationsdown,exitsslowedanddealshardtocomeby,weareseeingLPschanneltheirfunds

towardsthosePEmanagersabletoconsistentlydeliveroperationalalpha.Ultimately,thekeyto

achievinggreatfundraisingisdeliveringgreatreturns.99

GavinGeminder

GlobalHeadofPrivateEquityKPMGInternational

1,412

-12%

886

20052010201520202025

1,000

500

0

Fundraisingslowdown(m)

2005_202521,500

Capitalraised(US$bn)

Note:2Annualisedfigurefor2025,2GlobalPEactivitythrough31December2024

Source:(m)S&PGlobalandMarketIntelligenceandrelatedblogs‘IPOactivityslowdownstretchesthroughQ12024’

Valuecreationinprivateequity14

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Forward

Executivesummary

Thestateofprivateequity

Implications

TransformingPEvaluecreation

Implementationroadmap

Conclusion

Averageholdperiodsextend:Exitchallenges—includingvaluationdisconnectsand

subduedpubliccapitalmarkets—haveseenPEunrealizedassetssurgetoUS$3.6trillionasmedianholdingperiodsreachtheirhighestlevelsinoveradecade.

Globalactivebuyout-backedunrealizedvalueandholdingperiod(b)

2005–2024

Unrealisedvalue(USDtn)/

Medianholdingperiod(years)

Numberofdeals

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

2005201020152020

6.1

2,638

3.1

2024

Unrealisedvalue(US$tn)¹GlobalPEactivity(No.ofdeals)³Medianholdingperiod(years)¹

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Growthincontinuationvehicles:IntheevolvinglandscapeofPE,continuationfunds

comprised19percentofsponsor-backedexitsasofJune2025,providingkeyliquidityamiddecliningIPOandtakeoveractivity.However,theirstrategicusepromptsscrutinyregardingtheireffectivenessinaddressingunderlyingmarketchallenges,withmanyviewingthem

assimplytemporarymeasures.LPbehaviorisshifting.GreaterscrutinyisbeingplacedonPortCoperformanceandreporting,meaningfirmsneedtothinkaboutlonger-termvalue

opportunitiestogrowmarginsandprofitsacrossa5-6yeartimehorizon,ratherthanoptingforshort-termsolutions.

Growthincontinuationvehicles(CV)(i,o)

CVvolume(USDb)

5%7%

57

44