彭博-日本央行将利率上调至31年来最高水平并暗示未来还将进一步加息-BOJ Raises Rate to 31-Year High and Signals More to Come-20260616

暗示未来还将进一步加息ininTheBankofJapanheadquarters.Photographer:AkioKon/BloombergUpdatedon更新于June16,2026at6:14PMGMT+80/6:43TheBankofJapanraiseditsbenchmarkinterestratetothehighestsince1995andpledgedmorehikestocome,fuelingspeculationofanothermovebeforetheendoftheyear.日本央行将基准利率上调至1995年以来的最高水平，并承诺未来还将进一步加息，这引发了市场对其在年底前可能再次加TheBOJincreaseditsbenchmarkratebyaquarterpercentagepointto1%andsaidrateswouldkeepgoingupinresponsetodevelopmentsintheeconomy,accordingtoastatementTuesday.日本央行周二发表声明称，已将基准利率上调0.25个百分点至1%，并表⽰将根据经济形势的发展继续加息。SeparatelythecentralbanksaiditwouldstopparingbackitsbondbuyingfromnextApril,anindicationthatithaslargelyreturnedtothestatusquobeforethelaunchofitsmassivestimulusprogramin2013.Bothdecisionswerewidelyexpectedbyeconomistsandmarketparticipantsafterelevatedoilpricesheightenedinflationrisks.Thevoteontheratedecisionwas7-1,withboardmemberToichiroAsadadissenting.此外，央行表⽰将从明年4月起停止缩减债券购买规模，这表明其政策已基本回归到2013年启动大规模刺激计划之前的状态。在油价高企加剧通胀风险的背景下，这两项决定均在经济学家和市场参与者的广泛预期之中。此次利率决议的投票结果为7票赞成、1票反对，理事浅田东一郎投了反对票。Theyensoftenedatouchto160.35perdollaraftertheannouncementbutdidn’tsuccumbtothekindofsteepdropthatmighthavefannedinterventionfears.Still,itcontinuestohovernearlevelsthatpromptedtheFinanceMinistrytostepintothecurrencymarketinlateApril.消息公布后，日元兑美元汇率小幅走软至160.35，但并未出现可能引发干预担忧的那种大幅下跌。不过，日元汇率仍徘徊在4月下旬促使日本财务省介入外汇市场的水平附近。TheNikkei225brieflytoppedthe70,000markforthefirsttimefollowingthedecision,anindicationthatequityinvestorsweren’tspookedbythehike.该决定公布后，日经225指数首次短暂突破70,000点大关，这表明股市投资者并未因加息而感到恐慌。TheBOJdecisiontookplaceafterGovernorKazuoUedawashospitalizedlastweekfortreatmentofalivercystinfection,markingthefirsttimesinceanemergencymeetingin2010thattheboardmetwithoutagovernorpresent.日本央行此次决议是在行长上田和男上周因肝囊肿感染住院治疗后作出的，这也是自2010年那次紧急会议以来，央行理事会首次在行长缺席的情况下召开会议。Withtheratemoveandbondpurchaseplanslargelytelegraphedaheadoftime,muchoftheattentionfocusedonforwardpolicyguidance.由于利率调整和债券购买计划在事前已基本有所预⽰，市场关注的焦点主要集中在前瞻性政策指引上。DeputyGovernorShinichiUchidastoodinforUedaatabriefingafewhoursafterthedecisionandreiteratedthebank’scommitmenttoraiseratesagainandkeepontopofupsideinflationrisks.在该决定作出几小时后，副行长内田信一代上田出席了简报会，并重申了央行再次加息以及密切关注通胀上行风险的决“Regardingthequestionoffallingbehindthecurve,ourbasicapproachistocontinueraisingpolicyinterestrateswhileadjustingthedegreeofmonetaryeasing,”Uchidasaid.“关于政策滞后的问题，我们的基本方针是继续上调政策利率，同时调整货币宽松的力度，”内田表⽰。Readmore:BOJPolicyArchitectUchidatoTakeSpotlightonRatesGuidance阅读更多：日本央行政策制定者内田将成利率指引焦点Initsstatementearlierintheday,theBOJflaggedthatelevatedcrudeoilpriceshadbeenpassedonthroughbusiness-to-businesstransactionsquicklyandcouldspread,spurringanincreaseinawiderangeofconsumerprices.Thatcombinedwithariseinmedium-tolong-terminflationexpectationscreates“ariskofunderlyingCPIinflationdeviatingupwardtoalevelabovethepricestabilitytargetof2%,”itsaid.日本央行在当天早些时候发表的声明中指出，高企的原油价格已迅速通过企业间交易传导至市场，并可能进一步蔓延，从而推高各类消费价格。该行表⽰，加之中长期通胀预期的上升，这将导致“核心CPI通胀率存在向上偏离、升至2%价格稳定目标之上的风险”。Thosecommentsdrewattentionfromobserversasasignthatanotherratehikeisinthepipelinethisyear.Anindexofovernightswapsshowedmarketplayersseeingarounda54%chanceofrateincreasebyOctoberfollowingthepress https://www.valuelist.briefing.这些言论引起了观察人士的关注，被视为今年还将有一次加息在酝酿中的信号。隔夜掉期指数显⽰，在新闻发布会后，市场参与者预计10月前加息的概率约为54%。“Byhighlightingtheriskthatunderlyinginflationcouldriseabove2%,theBOJissendingaverystrongmessage,”saidNobuyasuAtago,chiefeconomistatRakutenSecuritiesEconomicResearchInstituteandaformerBOJofficial.乐天证券经济研究所首席经济学家、前日本央行官员安藤信康表⽰：“通过强调潜在通胀率可能升至2%以上的风险，日本央行发出了一个非常强烈的信号。”“TheBOJappearstobelayingthegroundworkforafasterpaceofratehikes,ratherthanmovingonlyonceeverysixmonths,”saidAtago,whomovedhisownforecastforthenextmovetoOctoberfromDecemberfollowingthebriefing.“日本央行似乎正在为加快加息步伐铺路，而不是每六个月才调整一次利率，”阿多戈表⽰。在听完简报后，他将自己对下次政策调整的预测时间从12月提前到了10月。IthasbecomeincreasinglydifficultfortheBOJtociteuncertaintyrelatedtoglobaldevelopmentsasameansofkeepingitsoptionsopenregardingthepaceofnormalization,asinflationrisksbuildglobally.TheEuropeanCentralBankraisedrateslastweek,whiletheFederalReserveisexpectedtoleaveitspolicysettingsunchangedlaterthisweekamidbuildingspeculationoverapotentialhikebyyear-end.随着全球通胀风险加剧，日本央行越来越难以再以全球局势的不确定性为由，以此为政策正常化的步伐保留灵活性。欧洲央行上周已加息，而美联储预计将在本周晚些时候维持政策不变，尽管市场对年底前可能加息的猜测日益升温。UchidacitedsmallerdownsiderisksfortheeconomycomparedwithApril,asafactorthatcontributedtoTuesday’sratemove.内田指出，与4月相比，经济下行风险有所减小，这是周二此次利率调整的一个因素。“TheBankofJapan’sratehikewasaimedattemperinginflationrisksfromelevatedoilcostsandsecond-roundeffectsPlaysItCool(3)toreadthefullreportStill,there’sscopeforpoliticalfactorstocomeintoplay.不过，政治因素仍有可能发挥作用。PrimeMinisterSanaeTakaichihasindicatedherpreferenceforaccommodativemonetarypolicy,andsherecentlyaskedUedatosetthe“right”policybyconsideringgovernmentmeasuresfortheeconomy,anapparentcalltonotmovetoofast.首相高市早苗已表明她倾向于宽松的货币政策，她最近要求上田在制定“恰当”的政策时，要考虑到政府对经济的措施，这显然是在呼吁不要行动过快。Asada,whovotedagainstTuesday’sratehike,washandpickedbyTakaichitojointhepolicyboard.Anotherknownreflationist,AyanoSato,alsochosenbythepremier,willstartontheboardattheendofJune.Itremainstobeseenhowmuchtheseappointmentswillinfluencetheconsensusoverthecomingmonths.在周二的加息投票中投下反对票的浅田，是由高市亲自选定加入政策委员会的。另一位以主张再通胀政策著称的佐藤绫乃，同样由首相选定，将于6月底正式加入该委员会。这些任命将在未来数月内对共识产生多大影响，仍有待观察。“WithAsadacastingadissentingvoteagainsttheratehike,ithasreinforcedtheimpressionthatthemembersappointedbyTakaichiareindeeddovish,”saidRintoMaruyama,seniorFXandratesstrategistatSMBCNikkoSecuritiesInc.HealsonotedthatthetermsofHajimeTakataandNaokiTamura,thetwoclearesthawksontheboard,willexpirein2027.“随着浅田对加息投下反对票，这进一步强化了市场对高市任命的委员确实持鸽派立场的印象，”SMBC日兴证券高级外汇及利率策略师丸山凛人表⽰。他还指出，董事会中两位最明显的鹰派成员高田肇和田村直树的任期将于2027年届满。“Consideringthesefactors,thereisapossibilitythattheBOJ’sratehikesmaynotproceedasthemarketexpects,andlingeringconcernsabouttheBOJfallingbehindthecurvearelikelybehindtheriseininterestratesandthedepreciationoftheyen,”Maruyamasaid.“考虑到这些因素，日本央行加息的步伐可能不会如市场预期般推进，而市场对日本央行政策滞后于通胀的持续担忧，很可能是导致利率上升和日元贬值的原因，”丸山表⽰。Bond-BuyingPlans债券购买计划TheBOJ’sdecisiontohaltitsparingofbondpurchasesfromthenextfiscalyearwasinlinewithexpectationsandmarksanothersignofprogressinthecentralbank’squesttonormalizepolicy.日本央行决定从下个财年起暂停缩减债券购买规模，这一决定符合市场预期，也标志着该央行在政策正常化进程中又取得了ThebanksaidthatfromApril2027itwouldkeepitsbondbuyingstableatamonthlypaceofaround¥2trillion($12.5billion).Thecentralbankwasbuyingaround¥1.8trillionofbondseachmonthbeforeitembarkedonitsmassivestimulusprogram,soreturningtostablepurchasesof¥2trillionessentiallysignifiesarestorationofthestatusquoin2012.TheBOJ’smonthlypurchaseshadpeakedat¥23.7 https://www.valuelist.trillioninJanuary2023.该行表⽰，从2027年4月起，将把每月债券购买规模稳定在约2万亿日元（125亿美元）左右。在启动大规模刺激计划之前，日本央行每月购买约1.8万亿日元的债券，因此恢复至每月2万亿日元的稳定购买规模，实质上意味着恢复到2012年的原状。日本央行每月购债规模曾在2023年1月达到23.7万亿日元的峰值。Thecentralbank’sholdingswillcontinuetofallasbondsareredeemed,buttheBOJhasreachedthepointofnolongeractivelycuttingbackitspurchases,amilestoneontheroadtonormalization.随着债券到期赎回，央行持有的债券规模将继续缩减，但日本央行已不再主动削减购债规模，这标志着货币政策正常化进程迈出了重要一步。ThatwasapointofdiscussionwithmarketparticipantsinMay.Someparticipantshadsaidstoppingreductionsatthe¥2.1trillionmarkwassufficient,whileanothersaid¥1.3trillion,thefigurebeforetheglobalfinancialcrisiswasamoresuitablestoppingpointtoreachanormalpurchasingamount.这是5月份市场参与者讨论的一个焦点。一些参与者认为，在2.1万亿日元的水平停止缩减已足够，而另一些人则认为，1.3万亿日元即全球金融危机前的水平才是更合适的停止点，这样才能达到