伯恩斯坦-中国GLP-1：ADA更新巩固850亿元总可市场容量 China Pharma and Biotech：China GLP~1：ADA updates reinforce a CNY85 Bn TAM-260612

12June2026

ChinaPharmaandBiotech

ChinaGLP-1:ADAupdatesreinforceaCNY85BnTAM

RebeccaLiang,Ph.D.

+85221232656

rebecca.liang@

EllieLi

+85221232621

ellie.li@

AtADA,newerGLP-1entrantslikeBrightGene(notcovered)hoveratthe16%

weightlossbaranddonotdifferentiateinweightlossefficacyfromChinaleadersInnovent,Hengrui,andHansoh.Westillseethesethreeastheonlyseriouscontenderssofar.Hengrui’spartnerKailera(notcovered)reportedthefirstex-ChinaclinicaldataforHRS-9531(ribupatide)injection.5.1%placebo-adjustedweightlossat4weekswasapositiveandsupportiveresultoftheearlierChina-baseddataandhelpedthestartoftheglobalPhase3KaiNETICprogram

InoralGLP-1s,Innovent’sIBI3032wasakeyhighlightandthemostdifferentiated

amongChina-basedprograms.Thesmallmoleculedelivered4-weekplacebo-adjustedweightlossof8.6%initsfirst-in-humanPh1.Thisisoneofthemostpotentearly-phaseoralreadoutsglobally(bestoralsapprovedtodaygive8-11%weightlossat60-70weeks).Whiledurability,safety,anddoseoptimizationremainopenpoints,theearlyefficacysignalgivesusconfidencethatInnoventcouldgetameaningfulshareoftheglobaloral

GLP-1spacepost2030(consensuspeaksales-orforglipron$31Bn,Wegovypill$9Bn).

Innovent’smazdutidealsocontinuestodifferentiatebeyondefficacy,particularlyin

theunderpenetratedjuvenileobesitysegment,whereitisemergingasafront-

runnerinChina.Pediatricobesitypopulation(>30Mnindividuals)remainslargely

untreatedpharmacologically,andevenalow~3–5%penetrationimpliesa1–2mnpatientopportunity.Weseemeaningfulfirst-moveradvantageforInnovent.

WeincorporaterecentpricechangesfromJanuary–June2026torecalibrateourChinaGLP-1model,loweringour2030Eobesitypricingassumptionto~CNY270permonth

(from~CNY430previously)andembeddingasteady-statelevelof~CNY200,reflecting

faster-than-expectedcompetitivepriceerosion.Offsettingthis,weexpandboththe

addressablepopulationandpenetrationcurve:wenowincludenotonlyobesepatients

(BMI>28)butalsooverweightpatients(24<BMI<28)withatleastonecomorbidity,

inlinewithupdatedapprovallabels,andraiseourGLP-1penetrationassumptionin

theoverweight/obesepopulationfrom8%to15%by2030E(vs.~1%currently).We

shortenedtreatmentdurationassumptionsto3monthsforweightloss(from8)and10

monthsforT2D(from12),reflectingreal-worldadherencepatterns.Overall,whilepricingisstructurallylower,weincreasethetreatedpatientpoolandpenetrationsufficientlyto

offsetthisheadwind,maintainingour2030EChinaGLP-1marketsizeat~CNY85bn;notably,the15%penetrationassumptionremainsthemostsensitivevariable.Topplayers:Innovent(mazdutide)peaksalesCNY10Bn,Hengrui(HRS-9531)peaksalesCNY6Bn,andHansoh(HS-20094)peaksalesCNY5Bnin2030E.

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.

FirstPublished:11Jun202622:30UTCCompletionDate:11Jun202611:56UTC

RebeccaLiang,Ph.D.+85221232656

rebecca.liang@

12June2026

BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE

11Jun2026

TTM

ReportedEPSReportedP/E(x)

Ticker

Rating

Cur

Closing Price

Price

Target

Rel.

Perf.

Cur2025A2026E2027E

2025A2026E2027E

9926.HK(Akeso)

M

HKD

87.55

130.00

(42.5)%

CNY

(0.60)

(0.52)

0.70

(125.2)

(146.7)

108.3

ONC(BeOne)

O

USD

263.61

412.00

(19.9)%

USD

2.63

5.65

8.93

100.2

46.6

29.5

1093.HK(CSPC)

M

HKD

7.24

10.70

(53.5)%

HKD

0.37

0.52

0.56

17.0

12.1

11.2

3692.HK(Hansoh)

O

HKD

29.14

47.00

(34.3)%

CNY

0.93

1.01

1.10

27.1

24.9

22.9

1801.HK(Innovent)

O

HKD

73.00

120.00

(44.2)%

HKD

0.48

0.71

2.90

150.5

102.9

25.2

600276.CH(Hengrui)

O

CNY

46.98

71.00

(49.7)%

CNY

1.19

1.54

1.92

39.5

30.4

24.5

6990.HK(Kelun-Biotech)

O

HKD

393.40

526.00

(20.8)%

CNY

(1.66)

(2.75)

0.85

32.7

33.2

20.4

1177.HK(SinoBioPh)

M

HKD

4.45

7.90

(42.2)%

CNY

0.19

0.20

0.22

20.1

19.4

17.6

9688.HK(ZaiLab)

M

HKD

13.31

15.00

(93.7)%

USD

(0.16)

(0.15)

(0.09)

3.3

3.0

2.5

ASIAX

1,920.52

SPX

7,266.99

O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspended6990.HK,9688.HKvaluationisEV/Sales(x);9926.HK,1093.HK,1177.HKbaseyearis2024;

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.

INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS

WerateHansoh,JiangsuHengrui,Kelun-Biotech,BeOneMedicines,andInnoventOutperform;andAkeso,ZaiLab,SinoBiopharm,andCSPCMarket-Perform.

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CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP3

DETAILS

ADAUPDATES

GLP-1Injectables:

Mazdutide9mg(inpatientswithoutT2D)cameoutessentiallyunchangedfromtheNovember2025readout.Whilethere’snoincrementalupside,thedataremainstrongandcontinuetogiveusconfidenceintheChinaopportunity.Atthesametime,newerentrantslikeBrightGenearestillclusteringaroundInnoventandHengruionefficacy,withnocleardifferentiation—sowedon’tseethememergingasseriouscontenders.

Onpipelineprogress,Hengrui’spartnerKailerareportedthefirstex-ChinaclinicaldataforHRS-9531(ribupatide)injection.

Showing5.1%placebo-adjustedweightlossat4weeksinthe3mggroup,datasetwassupportiveand,importantly,helped

thestartoftheglobalPhase3KaiNETICprogram,whichisameaningfulstepintakingtheassetbeyondChinaandintoamorecompetitiveglobalsetting.

Globally,theefficacybarcontinuestomoveup.RetatrutidehassetanewhighwatermarkinTriple-G,whileCT-388isdoingthesamewithinGLP-1/GIP.Thetakeawayisstraightforward-best-in-classisstilladvancingquickly,andthegaptotherestofthefieldremainsmeaningful.

EXHIBIT1:CompetitivelandscapeofsubcutaneousGLP-1

1)Mazdutide'sGLORY-2(9mg)andCagriSema'sREDEFINE-1resultsat2026ADAarethesameaspreviousreportings;2)HS-20094:LikelynotPBO-adj;EliLillyandPfizerarecoveredbyBreenCourtney,NovoNordiskandRochearecoveredbyJustinSmith,BrightGeneisnotcovered

Source:Companydisclosure,ADA,EASD,Bernsteinanalysis

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP4

EXHIBIT2:KailerareportsglobalKAI-9531injectiondataforthefirsttimeatADA,-5.1%PBO-adjweightlossafter29daysofexperiment

Source:ADA

GLP-1Oral:

InoralGLP-1s,acoupleofproductsarealreadyonthemarket,includingWegovypillandorfoglipron,whichhelpssetthecurrentbenchmarkforefficacy.Beyondthese,thepipelineisstillactivelyevolvingwithseveralsmall-moleculecandidates.

Amongtheearlier-stageassets,Innovent’sIBI3032standsout.Itshowedaround-8.6%placebo-adjustedweightlossinjust4weeks,whichisverystrongforsuchashortdurationandcompareswellversuspeersatmuchlatertimepoints,suggestingapromisingefficacyprofile(Exhibit3-Exhibit5).

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP5

EXHIBIT3:CompetitivelandscapeoforalGLP-1weightlossefficacy

ResultsoforalHRS-9531,ASC30,orfoglipron,andaleniglipronat2026ADAarethesameaspreviouslyreported;AstraZenecaiscoveredbyJustinSmith,StructureTherapeutics,Biomedindustries,andAscletisPharmaarenotcovered

Source:Companydisclosure,ADA,NEJM,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT4:IBI3032,anoralGLP-1drugofInnovent,achievedPBO-adjweightlossof-8.6%in4weeks

Mean%chginBWformajororalGLP-1drugs

PercentChange

-8.6

-11.4-11.5

-15.2

-20

04812162024283236404448525660646872Orfoglipron(Ph3)Wegovypill(Ph3)Aleniglipron(Ph2)IBI3032(Ph1)

-5

-10

-15

0

Source:NEJM,ADA,Bernsteinanalysis

RebeccaLiang,Ph.D.+85221232656

rebecca.liang@

12June2026

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP6

EXHIBIT5:OralGLP-1weightlossefficacybysubgroup

Drug/Formulation

Dose®imen

Timepoint

Weightloss%

≥10%weightloss(%ofparticipants)

OralHRS-9531(GLP_1/GIP)

10mgQD

Week26

-6.7%

59.1%

25mgQD

-11.9%

50mgQD

-11.4%

Placebo

-2.

1%

IBI3032oral

(GLP_1smallmolecule)

8mgQD

Week4

-8.8%

9mgQD

-10.7%

Placebo

-2.1%

Orforglipronoral

(GLP_1smallmolecule)

6mgQD

Week72

-7.5%

33.3%

12mgQD

40.0%

-8.4%

36mgQD

-11.2%

54

.6%

Placebo

-2.

12.9%

1%

Oralsemaglutide

(GLP-1smallmolecule)

25mgQD

Week64

-13.6%

63.0%

Placebo

-2

.2%

14.4%

Source:Companydisclosure,ADA,NEJM,Bernsteinanalysis

RebeccaLiang,Ph.D.+85221232656

rebecca.liang@

12June2026

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP7

EXHIBIT6:SafetyprofilesummaryofinjectablesandoralGLP-1drugs

Drug

Company

Target

Phase

(Obesity)

Trialinfo

Arm,n

Nausea

Vomiting

Diarrhea

Discontinuation(duetoAE)

Injectable

STEP1,2.4mg,n=130644%25%32%7%

SemaglutideNovoNordiskGLP-1ApprovedNCT03548935

Placebo,n=655I17%口7%ll16%3%

TirzepatideEliLillyGLP-1Approved

SURMOUNT-1,

NCT04184622

15mg,n=630

10mg,n=636

5mg,n=630

Placebo,n=643

31%

33%

25%

口10%

12%

11%

8%

2%

23%

21%

19%

7%

6%

7%

4%

3%

Efmedaglutide

Genexine/CSPC/TJBiopharma

GLP-1FiledNCT04855292

15mg,n=1233%25%33%0%

22.5mg,n=1267%33%50%0%

30mg,n=1267%42%75%0%

Placebo,n=120%0%口8%0%

MazdutideInnovent;EliLilly

GLP-

1/GCG

Approved

GLORY-1,

NCT05607680

4mg,n=203

6mg,n=202

Placebo,n=205

33%

50%

6%

26%35%1%

43%39%0%

3%6%1%

CagrilintideNovoNordiskAMYRPhIIIREDEFINE-1

2.4mg,n=302

Placebo,n=705

24%7%

13%4%

16%

13%

1%

EloralintideEliLillyAMYRPhIIINCT06230523

9mg,n=5433%

6mg,n=2864%

3mg,n=23口13%

Placebo,n=52口13%

11%

25%

0%

0%

口11%

36%

口9%

10%

7%

21%

0%

8%

RetatrutideEliLilly

Triple

G

PhIIITRIUMPH-1

4mg,n=584

9mg,n=583

12mg,n=582

Placebo,n=586

29%

38%

42%

15%

11%

23%

25%

5%

25%

34%

32%

14%

4%

7%

11%

5%

HRS-9531Hengrui/KaileraGLP-1/GIPFiledNCT070444011-3mg

Decreasedappetiteand

(62.5-81.8%),nausea(25.0-75.0%),vomiting(0.0-50.0%

0%

Oral

6mg,n=72329%13%21%5%

OrforglipronChugai;EliLillyGLP-1Approved

ATTAIN-1,

NCT05869903

12mg,n=725

36mg,n=730

Placebo,n=949

36%

34%

口10%

21%

24%

4%

23%

23%

10%

8%

10%

3%

WegovypillNovoNordiskGLP-1Approved

OASIS-4,

NCT05564117

25mg,n=204

Placebo,n=102

47%31%18%7%

19%6%9%6%

IBI3032InnoventGLP-1PhI-

SAD:0.3-6mgQD

MAD:5target

doses

ThemostcommonAEsweregastrointestinal,allmildinseverity;noSAEoccurred.

HRS-7535Hengrui/KaileraGLP-1PhIII

NCT06250946

180mg,n=47

Placebo,n=47

54%*38%*22%*2%*

AleniglipronStructureTherapeuticsGLP-1PhIIACCESSII120-240mg,n=26口

12%

12%0%0%

OralHRS9531Hengrui/KaileraGLP-1/GIPPhIIINCT06841445

10mg

25mg

50mg

12%

23%

20%

2%

11%

8%

0%

Note:ChugaiiscoveredbyMikiSogi,GenexineandTJBiopharmaarenotcovered

Source:Companydisclosure,

,Bernsteinanalysis

Mazdifferentiationinjuvenileobesity

TherearealsoemergingGLP-1trialstargetingjuvenileobesityinChina,whereactivityisstartingtopickup.EarlymoversinthisspaceincludeInnovent,NovoNordisk,Sciwind,andHengrui,eachadvancingclinicalprogramsinadolescents.Amongthese,mazdutideappearstobeleadingondevelopmenttimeline,withbothearlier-phasedatareadoutsandaclearerpathtoward

later-stagestudiescomparedwithpeers.

Overall,thefieldstilllooksrelativelyunderpenetratedinChina,andthecurrentpipelinesuggestsameaningfulfirst-mover

advantageforcompaniesalreadyintheclinic.Withlimitednear-termcompetitionandfewmatureassets,thosethatestablishefficacyearly-particularlyInnovent-arewellpositionedtoshapetheinitialstandardofcareinthissegment(Exhibit7-Exhibit8).

RebeccaLiang,Ph.D.+85221232656

rebecca.liang@

12June2026

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP8

EXHIBIT7:Efficacyofjuvenileobesitytrials

Source:ADA,NEJM,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT8:CompetitivelandscapeofjuvenileobesityinChina(GLP-1)

Company

Product

Trial

Chinatrial?

Agerange

Phase

Primary

completion

Innovent

Mazdutide

NCT06536023

Yes

12-18

Ph1

2025-07

NCT07255209

Yes

12-18

Ph3

2027-10

NovoNordisk

Cagrilintide,CagriSema

NCT07253285

Yes(incl.CN)

8-18

Ph3

2030-03

Sciwind

XW003

NCT07143227

Yes

12-18

Ph1

2026-04

Hengrui

HRS-9531sc

NCT07559136

Yes

12-18

Ph1

2027-01

Note:Sciwindisnotcovered

Source:C

,Bernsteinanalysis

Otherapproachesdon’tshowsignsofreplacingGLP-1yet

Newmechanisms,includingamylinanalogues,ActRIIinhibitors,andactivin-relatedtargets(INHBE/ALK7),havedemonstratedmeaningfulstandaloneweight-lossefficacy,generallyrangingfromc.9-20%inbodyweightreduction.However,nonehaveyetshownaclearadvantageoverGLP-1s.Notably,themostdifferentiatedresultshavebeenobservedincomboregimens,whereagentssuchasbimagrumabandARO-INHBEdeliveredgreaterweightlossandfat-massreductionwhenaddedtosemaglutideortirzepatide(Exhibit9).ThesefindingsimplythecurrentclinicalvalueofemergingtherapiesmaylieinaugmentingGLP-1

efficacyandimprovingbodycomposition,ratherthanreplacingGLP-1s.

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EXHIBIT9:Foremergingtherapies,weightlossbenefitseemsmoresignificantwhencombiningwithGLP-1treatments

Nameswith*arenotPBO-adj

Source:Companydisclosure,Lancet,ADA,Bernsteinanalysis

T2Defficacy

Inthecross-trialcomparisons,semaglutideachievedc.1.5%HbA1creduction,whiletirzepatideandmazdutidedemonstratedsuperiorreductionsofupto2.1%and2.2%respectively.AmongemergingChineseassets,Hengrui’sHRS-9531(ribupatide)reportedthegreatestHbA1creduction,reachingupto2.7%,thoughinterpretationshouldbetemperedbyanotableplaceboresponse.Meanwhile,Hansoh’sHS-20094hasshownencouragingearlyefficacy(atweek4)signalsrelativetosemaglutide(Exhibit10).Overall,cross-trialdatacompssuggestdualagonistscontinuetooutperformfirst-genGLP-1,whileseveral

Chineseassetsaredemonstratingincreasinglycompetitiveefficacyprofiles,albeitrequiringconfirmationinlargerandlonger-durationstudies.

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP10

EXHIBIT10:EfficacyofmajorGLP-1drugsonT2D

Source:Companydisclosure,NEJM,ADA,Bernsteinanalysis

2027marksthebeginningofamajorGLP-1launchwave

Followingtheinitiallaunchesofsemaglutide(Ozempic,Wegovy,andRybelsus),tirzepatide(Mounjaro),andmazdutide

(Xinermei),ChinaGLP-1marketisexpectedforaconcentratedwaveofnewentrantsin2027E,includingHengrui’s

HRS-9531,Hansoh’sHS-20094,orforglipron(oralGLP-1)andthefirstwaveofsemaglutidebiosimilarsfollowingpatent

expiry.Thepipelineisexpectedtobroadenfurtherin2028EandbeyondwiththepotentiallaunchesofCagrisema,oral

semaglutide(Wegovypill),oralHRS-9531,GZR18,BGM0504,andotherlate-stagecandidates,expandingbothinjectableandoraltreatmentoptions(Exhibit11).Webelievethislaunchwavewilllikelyacceleratemarketpenetrationandpatientaccess

whiledrivingthetransitiontoacompetitivemulti-playerlandscape.Ascompetitiveintensitygrows,differentiationislikelytoshiftbeyondglycemicandweight-lossefficacytowardfactorssuchasoralconvenience,bodycompositionbenefits,andpricing.

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CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP11

Injections

Oral

EXHIBIT11:FollowingthelaunchofMazdutide,domesticGLP-1marketisexpectedtoseeaconcentratedwaveofnewproductlaunchstartingin2027andbeyond

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028Eorlater

Tirzepatide(Mounjaro)

Mazdutide

(IBI362)

Ecnoglutide

Ribupatide(HRS-9531)

CagriSema

GZR18

▲

ApprovedinChina

(May'24T2D;

Jul'24obesity)

▲

ApprovedinChina(Jun'25obesity)

(Nov'259mgfiled)

▲ApprovedinChina(Jan'26T2D)

(Mar'26obesity)

▲

FiledNDAinSep'2025

inChina,est.launchin2027E

▲

Est.to

beapprovedinChinain2028E+

▲

NowinPh3,est.

launchin2028E+

▲

Officialcommercial

launchinChinainJan.2025

▲

ApprovedinChina(Sept'25T2D)

HS-20094

sioitae

BGM0504

▲

FiledNDAinJun'2026,

▲NowinPh3,est.

est.launchin2027E

launchin2028E+

Semaglutide

Visepegenatide

(Ozempic&Wegovy)

▲

ApprovedinChina

▲

ApprovedinChina

(Apr'21T2D;

(Nov'25T2D;

▲

Jun'24obesity)

Launchedboth

obesityinPh1/2)

Semaglutidebiosimilar

Ozempicand

WegovyinChina

▲

Chinapatentexpiryin

2026;expectedto

approvein2027E

▲

Semaglutide(Rybelsus)

ApprovedinChina(Jan'24T2D)

Orfoglipron

▲NDAsubmittedinChinaforbothT2Dandobesity,est.

launchin2027E

Semaglutide(Wegovypill)

▲Phase3OASIS3

completedinChina,expectedapprovalin2028E+

HRS-7535

▲NowinPh3,est.launchin2028E+

▲

▲

Oralribupatide

ChinaPhase2trialongoing,est.launchin2028E+

VCT220

NowinPh3,est.launchin2028E+

Note:PegBio,Incentage,andGan&Leearenotcovered

Source:Companydisclosures,

ClinicalT

,Pharmcube,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis

CHINAGLP-1MARKETMODELUPDATE:PRICEEROSIONOFFSETBYHIGHERPREVALENCEANDPENETRATION

WeupdatedourChinaGLP-1marketmodeltoreflectrecentpricingtrendsandabroadertreatmentparadigm,withfaster-than-expectedpriceerosionoffsetbyameaningfulexpansioninTAMandpenetration(Exhibit14).BasedonthepriceresetstartingfromJan.2026,weloweredourobesityASP(averagesellingprice)assumptiontoc.CNY270/monthby2030E(fromc.CNY430/monthpreviously),withalong-termnormalizationtowardc.CNY200/month(Exhibit16).

Inparallel,wehaveexpandedthetotaladdressablemarket(TAM)bybroadeningtheeligiblepatientpopulation.Ourpreviousmodelassumedarelativelyhighthresholdforadoption,focusingonlyonobesepatients(BMI>28)withatleastone

comorbidity.However,recentapprovalssupporttheuseofweightlosstherapiesinawiderpopulation,includingboth

obesepatients(withorwithoutcomorbidities)andoverweightindividuals(BMIbtw24–28)withatleastoneweight-relatedcomorbidity.Reflectingthisshift,wenowincludebothgroupsinourTAM(Exhibit15).

Alongsidetheexpandedpopulation,wehaveincreasedourassumptionsforGLP-1penetration.Real-worlddatasuggestthatuptakeisaccelerating,withU.S.penetrationamongoverweightandobesepopulationsalreadyestimatedat10–20%and

continuingtorise.A2024reportfurtherindicatesthat12%ofallU.S.adultshaveusedGLP-1therapiesatsomepoint,withapproximately6%activelyusingthem.Basedonthesetrends,weraiseourprojectedpenetrationintheoverweight/obese

populationfrom8%to15%by2030E.Atthesametime,werefinetreatmentdurationassumptionstobetterreflectobservedbehavior,reducingexpecteddurationfrom8monthsto3monthsforweightlossandfrom12monthsto10monthsfortype2diabetes.

Wealsoincorporatethegrowingimportanceofjuvenileobesityasanincrementaldriverofdemand.Obesityprevalenceisprojectedtorisemorerapidlyamongchildrenthanadults,increasingfromaround10%todayto18%by2035E,comparedwithadultprevalencerisingfrom14%to18%overthesameperiod.Givenongoingclinicalprogressoftherapiessuchas

RebeccaLiang,Ph.D.+85221232656

rebecca.liang@

12June2026

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP12

semaglutideandmazdutideinpediatricpopulations,wenowincludethissegmentinourmodel.

Overall,whilefasterpriceerosionpresentsaheadwind,itismorethanoffsetbytheexpansioninTAMandhigherexpected

GLP-1penetration.WethereforecontinuetoprojectthatChinaGLP-1marketwillreachc.CNY85Bnby2030E.Amongallkeyassumptions,penetrationintheoverweight/obesepopulation—nowforecastat15%—remainsthemostcriticalanduncertainvariable,particularlygiventhelowstartingbaseofaround1%today.

EXHIBIT12:Morethan30%pricecutseenone-commerceplatformsformazdutidesincelateJanuarythisyear

Source:

JD.com

,Bernsteinanalysis

RebeccaLiang,Ph.D.+85221232656

rebecca.liang@

12June2026

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP13

EXHIBIT13:SemaglutideandtirzepatideareincludedinNRDLinChina,andwethinkmazdutidewillbeincludedstartingfrom2027E

Mazdutidepriceinthechartisfromonlinechannels,giventheproducthasnotbeenincludedinNRDLSource:NRDLlist,Bernsteinanalysis

RebeccaLiang,Ph.D.+85221232656

rebecca.liang@

12June2026

CHINAPHARMAANDBIOTECHBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP14

EXHIBIT14:Keyassumptionsupdatesfor2030EChinaGLP-1marketObesityandoverweightmarketsegment

Metric

2030E(old)

2030E(new)

Overweightandobeseprevalence(Mn)

133*

483

GLP-1treatedpatients(Mn)

18

79

Durationoftreatment(m)

8(obesity);2(non-