伯恩斯坦-日本半导体设备：在中国的份额或正扭转颓势 Japan Semi Equipment：Potentially reversing share loss in China？-260612

12June2026

JapanSemiconductors

JapanSemiEquipment:PotentiallyreversingsharelossinChina?

DavidDai,CFA

+85229185704

david.dai@

QingyuanLin

,Ph.D.

+85221232654

qingyuan.lin@

JuhoHwang

+85221232632

juho.hwang@

FrancisMa

+85221232626

francis.ma@

CarmineMilano,CFA

+442077621857

ano@

JackLin

+85221232683

jack.lin@

JapaneseequipmentmakershavebeenlosingshareinChina,notonlytoChinesedomesticmakersbuttootheroverseasmakers.Theirmarketshareamongimportsdroppedfrom26%in2024to23%in2025.Beforethat,theirmarketshareinChina

amongimportspeakedin2021at30%.Webelievethatisoneofthemajorconcernsforinvestors,butthetrendmayreversegoingonward.

Thesharelosscanbeexplained:FXwasabigreasonforthenominalshareloss.TheJPYhasdepreciated31.5%overthelast5years,andJapaneseWFEplayerstendtopricetheirproductsinJPY.Adjustingforwhichthemarketsharewouldhavebeen31%/26%

(insteadof26%/23%)respectivelyin2024/25,vs.2023adjustedmarketshareof27%,or2021shareof28%.Investmenttimingwasanothermajorreason,causingJapantolosesharein2025aftergainingsharein2024.Webelievesomeofthecustomers

withhistoricallyhigherJapanesepresencesuchasCXMTnotplacingmanyordersin2025mayhavealsocausedsomeopticalmarketshareloss.Averagingoutmarketsharein2024and25,theJapaneseWFEcompanies’FXadjustedmarketshareinChinaamongimportedequipmentwouldbe28.6%,whichisonparwithaveragemarketsharein21-23of28.1%.Thisalsosuggeststhat2025sharelossismainlyduetotimingfororderratherthan

structuralloss.Therearealsosomespecificreasonsforeachindividualcompany.

All3frontendequipmentcompanies(TEL/Screen/Kokusai)lostsharein2025,butfor

differentreasons.ForTokyoElectron,itwaslikelyduetocustomer/process-stepmixandtiming,aswellashistoricallylessaggressivepricing.ForScreen,itwaslikelyduetoordertimingandcustomers’localizationattempts,ascleaningisasegmentwherelocalshavebecomemorecredible,whileforKokusaiitwaslikelymostlyduetoCXMT’sinvestment

timing.

WeexpecttheJapaneseequipmentmakerstoreversethesharelossinChinagoingforward.TheFXshouldnolongerbeaheadwind,andbecauseofyendepreciation,the

Japaneseequipmentisofconsiderablygoodvaluewhichallowsthemtoraiseprices.

This,coupledwithnormalizationofinvestmentpatternamongtheChinesecustomers,

shouldallowtheJapaneseequipmentmakerstogainmarketshareinChina.Although

Japan’smarketshareamongimporthasn’tnecessarilybeenimpressiveYTD,weexpect

themtoregainshareingoingforwardasChinesecustomersseemtohavebeenorderingincreasinglyfromJapanagain,andwebelieveJapaneseequipmentmakershavestarted

toraisepricesmoreactively.Specifically,TokyoElectron(OP)hasbeenmorevocalon

pricing,especiallyinChinawherecertaintoolsremaindifficulttobereplacedbylocals.

Customermixnormalizingshouldalsohelp.Kokusai(OP)couldseeChinamemory

capacityexpansioncycletosupportdemand,andwebelievetheircoreareasarenotyet

fullycaughtupbylocalcompetition.Screen(MP)expectsordersfromCXMTtocomebackafter2yearsofnoorders,aswellasasizeableorderfromJHICC.

Wearepositiveonfrontendequipmentcompanies—TokyoElectron,KokusaiaswellasScreenespeciallyaftertherecentcommodity/materialsrally.SPEshave

beenunderperformingthecommodityseminames(memory,analog,substrate,wafer,etc.)inthepast2-3months.WeexpectthestrengthforSPEcompaniestorecoverasinvestorsrecognizethecapexincreaseinthenextfewyears,aswellastheirpotentialsharegaininChina,andpreferTEL(OP)andKokusai(OP).

SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.

FirstPublished:11Jun202620:30UTCCompletionDate:11Jun202614:11UTC

DavidDai,CFA+85229185704

david.dai@

12June2026

BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE

11Jun2026

TTM

ReportedEPSReportedP/E(x)

Ticker

Rating

Cur

Closing Price

Price

Target

Rel.

Perf.

Cur2025A2026E2027E

2025A2026E2027E

8035.JP(TokyoElectron)

O

JPY

63,400

59,200

114.7%

JPY

1,250.88

1,504.14

1,848.77

50.7

42.2

34.3

7735.JP(Screen)

M

JPY

12,990

12,600

97.2%

JPY

486.61

572.60

662.24

26.7

22.7

19.6

6525.JP(Kokusai)

O

JPY

8,042.00

8,240.00

103.9%

JPY

128.63

200.23

274.61

62.5

40.2

29.3

002371.CH(NAURA)

O

CNY

637.50

680.00

71.1%

CNY

5.66

10.22

16.41

112.6

62.4

38.9

688012.CH(AMEC)

O

CNY

303.12

500.00

130.4%

CNY

3.40

4.95

7.18

89.2

61.3

42.2

688072.CH(Piotech)

O

CNY

655.27

580.00

322.3%

CNY

3.32

8.12

12.40

197.4

80.7

52.9

ASML(ASML)

O

USD

1,734.19

1,971.00

98.4%

USD

27.95

36.96

53.13

53.6

40.5

28.2

ASML.NA(ASML)

O

EUR

1,507.20

1,700.00

109.2%

EUR

24.72

32.69

46.98

61.0

46.1

32.1

JPL

2,508.65

ASIAX

1,911.22

SPX

7,394.30

EDME

1,541.87

O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspendedSource:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.

INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS

WerateTokyoElectron(TP=¥59,200)andKokusai(TP=¥8,240.00Outperform,andScreen(TP=¥12,600)Market-Perform.WerateASML(PT=€1,700.00)Outperform.

WerateNauraOutperform,withTPatCNY680.

WerateAMECOutperform,withTPatCNY500.

WeratePiotechOutperform,withTPatCNY580.

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP2

DavidDai,CFA+85229185704

david.dai@

12June2026

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP3

DETAILS

Japaneseequipmentmakers,ledbyTEL,havebeenunderperformingglobalpeersin2025ingrowthandmarketshare.OnebigreasonforthatisChina,whichrepresentsc.42%ofglobalWFEasof2025,whereJapaneseequipmentmakershavebeenlosingshare.Intoday’sreport,weexaminethecauseoftheshareloss,anddiscussthefuturemarketsharetrendinChina.

JapaneseequipmentmakershavebeenlosingshareinChina,notonlytoChinesedomesticmakersbuttoother

overseasmakers.Theirmarketshareamongimportsdroppedfrom26%in2024to23%in2025.Beforethat,theirmarketshareinChinaamongimportspeakedin2021at30%.However,webelievethetrendmayreversegoingforward.

Japanesemakershavebeenlosingsharein2025notonlytodomesticcompetitionbutamongglobalplayersaswell.

AlongsideChinaWFEmarketgrowth,WFEimportstoChinahasbeenonaconstantrise(Exhibit1).Although,Japan’smarketsharewithinWFEimportshasbeenonaconstantdeclinesince2021peak.TheabsolutedollaramountofJapan-originimportsalsofellin2025fromthe2024peak,and2026YTD(uptoApril)run-ratealsoappearslowerthanthe2025level(Exhibit2).

EXHIBIT1:WFEimportstoChinahasbeenonaconstantrise

TotalChinaWFEimports(USDbn)

23.8

22.0

15.3

11.9

10.0

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

37.931.5

39.2

12.7

4.8

7.1

5.8

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026YTD

Source:GeneralAdministrationsofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT2:...butJapanhasbeenconstantlydroppingmarketsharesince2022.

2015-2026YTD:WFEimportsfromJapan

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026YTD

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

lmportsfromJapan%Marketshare

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

9.97.7

3.11.7

4.33.1

(USDbn)

2.2

6.1

8.8

0.9

7.1

1.3

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

AbigpartofthereasonfornominalsharelosswasFX.Wewouldnotattributeallofthistopuremarketsharelossto

competition.Firstly,theJapaneseyenhasdepreciated31.5%overthelast5years(Exhibit3),andwesuspectthatthisFX

movementdefinitelywouldhaveplayedarolesincemostoftheJapaneseWFEvendorspricetheirequipmentmostlyinJPY.IfweadjustforFX,Japan’smarketsharelosscanbeseenaslargelystable(Exhibit4).

DavidDai,CFA+85229185704

david.dai@

12June2026

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP4

EXHIBIT3:JPYhasdepreciated31.5%overthelast5years.

2021-2026:USDJPYexchangerate

USDJPY

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

Jun-21Jun-22Jun-23Jun-24Jun-25Jun-26

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT4:FXmayhavesomeimpactonJapan'smarketsharelossastheychargecustomersmostlyinJPY.

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026YTD

31%29%

27%26%26%

28%

26%24%

23%22%

2015-2026YTD:JapanWFEimportmarket

shareinChina

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

%share(FXadjusted)

%Marketshare

USDJPYFXisindexedto2015

Source:Bloomberg,GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

Theotherpartistimingoforderfromdifferentcustomers.Forinstance,CXMTasoneoftheChinesecompanieswhousedalotofJapaneseequipmentsnotonlyinvestedlessoveralllastyearduetofabexpansiontimingandtheirfundingissues,buttheyalsohadtriedtolocalizetheirequipmentbaseandorderedlessfromJapan.

Averagingoutmarketsharein2024and2025,theJapaneseWFEcompanies’FXadjustedmarketshareinChinaamong

importedequipmentwouldbe28.6%,whichisonparwithaveragemarketsharein21-23of28.1%.Thisalsosuggeststhat2025sharelossismainlyduetotimingfororderratherthanstructuralloss.

Thecompany-levelread-throughisthereforemorenuancedthantheheadlinesharedecline.Allthreefront-endequipmentcompaniesunderourcoverageappeartohavelostsharein2025,butthereasonsdifferbycompany.Wealsobelievepartofthesharelosscouldreversein2H26–2027,supportedbycustomerordernormalizationandmoreactivepricingbyJapanesevendors.

Therearealsosomespecificreasonsforeachindividualcompany.All3frontendequipmentcompanies(TEL/Screen/

Kokusai)lostsharein2025,butfordifferentreasons.Overall,itseemsclearthatJapaneseWFEcompaniesunderourcoveragelostsomemarketsharein2025(Exhibit5,Exhibit6),butwebelievethissharelosscouldbereversedgoingforward.

TokyoElectron(OP):ForTEL,webelievetheywouldn’thavenecessarilylostPORmarketshareevenin2025,andthenominalmarketsharelossisattributablefirstlytocustomermixandtheirtimingofinvestment.Forinstance,CXMT—forwhichTEL

hasarelativelyhighmarketshare—didn’tinvestmuchlastyear.Secondly,TELhashistoricallypricedlessaggressively,whichlostthemquiteabitofmarketsharegivenFXdepreciation.Also,someproduct-level/process.step-levelmixmayhavealsoimpactedopticalmarketshare.

Screen(MP):ForScreen,the2025sharelossappearstohavebeendrivenbyordertimingandcustomerlocalizationattempts.CXMTdidnotplacemeaningfulorderswithScreenoverthelasttwoyearsasittriedtolocalizepartsofitsequipmentbase,

whichlikelyhurtScreen’sChinashare.Swaysure,amajorcustomerofScreen’sinChinaDRAMspace,wasn’tverysuccessfulandceasedinvestmentin2025,whichalsoimpactedScreen’smarketshare.

Kokusai(OP):ForKokusai,the2024-2025marketsharelosswebelievealsohadalottodowithCXMT,asin2024weestimateCXMTaccountedforaround¥47bnwhereasin2025webelieveCXMTinvestmentfadedtoaround¥11bn.

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP5

EXHIBIT5:Overall,Japanesevendorshavelostsomemarketsharein2025...

2023-2025:Chinamarketshareamongforeignvendors(Overall)

34%

18%

9%

24%

%

11%

2023

ScreenKokusai

36%

12%

12%

26%

%

10%

2025AMAT

32%

16%

8%

26%

%

13%

2024

ASML

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

TEL

Other

Lam

Source:Gartner,Companydisclosures,BernsteinChinaSemiTeamanalysisandestimates.

EXHIBIT6:...andthetrendlooksmorepronouncedforthe4segmentswithJapaneseexposure.

2023-2025:Chinamarketshareamongforeignvendors

(Deposition+Etch+Cleaning+Thermal)

21%22%

32%

28%

17%

3%

8%

23%

2024

KokusaiLam

20%

24%

2%

6%

16%

2025

AMATOther

31%

20%

2%

7%

19%

2023

Screen

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

TEL

Source:Gartner,Companydisclosures,BernsteinChinaSemiTeamanalysisandestimates.

Weexpectthemtoregainsharefrom2H26onward,especiallywiththeactivepriceraise.Goingforward,theFX

shouldnolongerbeaheadwind,andbecauseofyendepreciationof~31%overthepast5years,theJapaneseequipmentisofconsiderablygoodvaluewhichallowsthemtoraiseprices.This,coupledwithnormalizationofinvestmentpatternamongtheChinesecustomers,shouldallowtheJapaneseequipmentmakerstogainmarketshareinChina(Exhibit7-Exhibit9).

TEL:WeexpectTEL’sChinasharetoimprovefromtheweak2025levelascustomermixnormalizesandpricingbecomes

moresupportive.TELhasrecentlybeenmorevocalonpricing,especiallyinChina,whereitseesroomforpriceincreasesgiventhatcertaintoolsremaindifficulttoreplacewithlocalalternatives.Thecompanyalsoappearstobeintroducingadditional

surchargesforcostincreasesandexpediteddelivery.Therefore,while2025sharemayhavebeenweak,wedonotthinkitshouldbeextrapolatedinto2026andbeyond.

Screen:ForScreen,wearenowmoreconstructiveafterourrecentgroupcallwiththecompany.Whiletheyhavealsolostsomenominalmarketsharein2025,ScreenexpectsordersfromCXMTtocomeback—whodidnotplaceordersfortheminthelast2yearsinanattempttolocalizetheequipments,asizableorderfromJHICC,andYMTCordering1.5xofwhattheyorderedlastyear.FoundrycustomersareexpectedtocontinuetorelyheavilyonScreenaswell.

Kokusai:ForKokusai,weexpectChinamemorycapacityexpansiontosupportdemand,whilelocalcompetitionhasnotyetfullycaughtupinKokusai’scoreareas.Therefore,althoughChinathermallocalizationremainsamedium-termrisk,wedonotthinkthe2025Chinaimport-sharedataaloneshouldchangetheinvestmentthesis.Kokusai’snear-termupside/downsideshould

remainmoredrivenbycapacityconstraints.

Meanwhile,SPEshavebeenunderperformingthecommodityseminames(memory,analog,substrate,wafer,etc.)inthepast2-3months(Exhibit10).WeexpectthestrengthforSPEcompaniestorecoverasinvestorsrecognizethecapexincreaseinthenextfewyears,aswellastheirpotentialsharegaininChina.OurpeckingorderinJapanfrontendSPEisTEL(OP)>Kokusai

(OP)>Screen(MP)fortheChinaexposure.

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP6

EXHIBIT7:TELChina’ssalesdeclinedinFY26

JPYbn

FY22-FY26:TELChinasales1,200

1,000

0

FY22/3FY23/3FY24/3FY25/3FY26/3

800

600

400

200

Source:Companydisclosures,Bernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT8:...asdidScreen’s...

JPYbn

FY22-FY26:ScreenChinasales

FY22/3FY23/3FY24/3FY25/3FY26/3

250

200

150

100

50

0

Source:Companydisclosures,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT9:...andKokusai’s,butweexpectthemtoresumegrowth.

JPYbn

FY22-FY26:KokusaiChinasales120

100

0

FY22/3FY23/3FY24/3FY25/3FY26/3

80

60

40

20

Source:Companydisclosures,Bernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT10:Overthelast2months,SPEshavesignificantlyunderperformedanalog(Renesas)andcommodity(Ibiden/Sumco).

C2Q26todate:Sharepriceperformance(indexedto100)

4/1

4/3

4/5

4/7

4/9

4/11

4/13

4/15

4/17

4/19

4/21

4/23

4/25

4/27

4/29

5/1

5/3

5/5

5/7

5/9

5/11

5/13

5/15

5/17

5/19

5/21

5/23

5/25

5/27

5/29

5/31

6/2

6/4

6/6

6/8

6/10

Advantest(+11.9%)Kokusai(+47.1%)

Ibiden(+125.7%)

Non-SPEaverage(+74.2%)

Disco(+10.0%)

SCREEN(+37.9%)

Renesas(+83.4%)

SPEaverage(+30.3%)

TEL(+61.4%)

Lasertec(+13.7%)HOYA(-7.1%)

Sumco(+94.9%)

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinanalysis.

ChinaWFEisstillanimportantmarketforglobalequipmentmakers,despitecontinuedlocalization.Overall,China

remainsalargeandimportantWFEmarket(Exhibit11)with$50bnTAMcomposingc.42%ofglobalWFEasof2025,

supportedbydomesticfabexpansion,localizationofsemiconductormanufacturingandongoinginvestmentbybothlogic/

foundryandmemorycustomers.EvenasdomesticWFEsuppliersgainshare,theabsolutesizeofChinaWFEdemandremainslargeenoughtomatterforglobalequipmentvendors.ThisisparticularlyrelevantforJapanesesuppliers,asTEL,ScreenandKokusaiallhavemeaningfulChinaexposure.

However,thekeyissueisnolongersimplywhetherChinaWFEgrows.Themoreimportantquestionishowmuchofthatgrowthaccruestoimportedsuppliersversusdomesticvendors.China’sself-sufficiencyisexpectedtoincreasefurther,whichmeansglobalvendorscanfacesharepressureevenifChinaWFEremainslarge.

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP7

EXHIBIT11:ChineseWFEmarketisgrowing,andself-sufficiencyisexpectedtoincreasefurther.

Source:BernsteinChinaTeamestimatesandanalysis.

Detaileddiscussion/dataformarketshareinChinabyproduct

Beforediscussingthedetailedmarketshare,onefactorthatimpactsoverallshareislithographyintensitywhichhasbeen

significantlyhighersince2023onwards—from18%in2022to28%in2023-2024(Exhibit12),andlithographyisanareawhereJapanusedtohavesomepresenceintheformofCanon(7751.JT,notcovered)andNikon(7731.JT,notcovered)butisnowmostlydominatedbyASML(Outperform).

EXHIBIT12:Lithointensitywasnotablyhighersince2023onwardsinChina.

15%

5%

5%

11%

2%

18%

26%

19%

2026YTD

LithographyDepositionDryEtchCleaningProcessControlThermoProcessDopingOthers

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

5%

8%

15%

4%

17%

23%

18%

2022

11%

4%

8%

11%

5%

18%

23%

20%

2021

11%

4%

6%

13%

2%

14%

22%

28%

2023

11%

4%

6%

6%

4%

20%

29%

19%

2015

12%

3%

6%

12%

5%

14%

25%

23%

2018

12%

5%

6%

12%

3%

14%

20%

28%

2024

13%

3%

4%

11%

3%

16%

21%

27%

2025

13%

4%

8%

11%

4%

16%

21%

23%

2020

14%

3%

8%

11%

5%

14%

26%

18%

2017

14%

3%

10%

13%

5%

15%

22%

18%

2019

14%

6%

7%

9%

4%

14%

24%

21%

2016

2015-2026YTD:Breakdownbyequipmenttype(Global)

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

Ontheotherhand,morestructurally,theimportdatasuggeststhatJapanmayactuallybepotentiallylosingmarketsharetocertainsuppliersshippingfromMalaysia—whichlikelyrepresentsLamResearch(LRCX.US,coveredbyStacyRasgon)—aswellasSingapore—whichlikelyrepresentsAppliedMaterials(AMAT.US,coveredbyStacyRasgon)inthemorerecentyears,

DavidDai,CFA+85229185704

david.dai@

12June2026

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP8

aswecanseethatMalaysiahasincreaseditsmarketsharefrom4%to9%in2025,andSingaporehasincreasedmarket

sharefrom17%to24%in2026YTDwhileJapanlost4%pointsofmarket(Exhibit13).Inthefollowingsections,weexamineproduct-levelimportdataaswellasourChinateam’sproprietarycompany-levelestimatestoexaminewhichproductsand/orcompaniesmaybecausingthismarketshareloss.

EXHIBIT13:Conversely,Malaysia/Singaporehavebeengainingmarketshareinrecentyears.

Regional

13%

26%

1%

11%

23%

2019

17%

22%

10%

24%

8%

2026YTD

UnitedStatesSingaporeMalaysiaJapanNetherlandsTaiwanIsraelGermanyAustriaOthers

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

15%

22%

11%

31%

2016

25%

26%

4%

16%

13%

2024

23%

24%

5%

17%

13%

2023

12%

28%

5%

15%

18%

2022

19%

24%

11%

26%

2018

25%

23%

9%

17%

9%

2025

14%

20%

8%

35%

2015

14%

24%

9%

28%

2017

14%

30%

2%

13%

18%

2021

17%

28%

1%

12%

19%

2020

breakdownofWFEImportinChina

2015-2026YTD:

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

Byproduct,dryetchandthermalprocessisseeingmarketshareloss

Attheproductlevel,themostvisiblesharelossisindryetchaswellasthermalprocess(Exhibit15,Exhibit16).Japan’sshareinChinadryetchimportshasdeclinedsharply,andthemarketsharelossfrom2024peakseemstohappeningmostlytoLamResearchwhoshipstheiretchersfromMalaysia—whichsawasignificantuptickin2025to39%from24%in2024(Exhibit17).

AlthoughTELmayindeedbelosingactualmarketshare,wewouldassumeTEL’ssharelossindryetchcouldalsobecausedbyboththelackofpricehikeonthesideofTEL,aswellascertainunfavourableprocess-stepmix,asTELisquitedominantindielectricetchvs.Lammoreinconductoretch(Exhibit18,Exhibit19).

EXHIBIT14:Thermalprocesses,CMP,Dryetch,Cleaning,andDepositionarethesegmentsinwhichChinahasachievedsomedegreeofself-sufficiency.

Source:Gartner,Companydisclosures,BernsteinChinaSemiTeamestimatesandanalysis.

DavidDai,CFA+85229185704

david.dai@

12June2026

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP9

EXHIBIT15:JapanesemarketshareinDryetchhasdroppedthemostsharply.

2015-2026YTD:JapaneseWFE

marketshare(DryEtch)

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026YTD

Marketshareamongglobalplayers(excludingChinalocal)

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT16:JapaneseThermalprocessequipmentshasbeenconsistentlylosingmarketshare.

2015-2026YTD:JapaneseWFE

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

marketshare(ThermalProcess)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026YTD

Marketshareamongglobalplayers(excludingChinalocal)

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT17:JapanislosingmarketshareindryetchmainlytoMalaysia,and2026YTDtoTaiwanalso.

2015-2026YTD:RegionalbreakdownofWFEImportinChina(DryEtch)

201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026YTD

UnitedStatesSingaporeMalaysiaJapanNetherlandsTaiwanIsraelGermanyAustriaOthers

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

14%

34%

30%

4%

8%

12%

31%

19%

6%

18%

45%

35%32%

3%4%8%

6%5%4%

23%

3%

65%

18%

1%

71%

21%

1%

66%

8%

28%

8%

8%

10%

75%

7%

27%

6%

11%

39%24%

3%

25%

5%

8%

17%

42%

26%

18%

13%

30%

39%

Marketshareamongglobalplayers(excludingChinalocal)

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP10

EXHIBIT18:TELhasadominantmarketshareindielectricetch

2015-2025:Dielectricetchmarketsize

USDbn

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0

TELLamAMECOther

9.4

7.4

5.6

10

8

6

4

2

5.8

4.3

5.54.6

2.72.0

9.6

9.1

Source:TechInsights,Bernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT19:...buthasaminimalexposuretoconductoretch.

2015-2025:Conductoretchmarketsize

USDbn

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

9.8

7.86.6

12.111.0

LamAMATNAURATELOther

12

9

6

3

0

9.98.9

6.96.2

4.6

4.1

15

Source:TechInsights,Bernsteinanalysis.

EXHIBIT20:Inthermalprocess,JapanislosingmarketsharetobothUSandSingapore.

2015-2026YTD:RegionalbreakdownofWFEImportinChina(Thermalprocess)

28%

18%

10%

202420252026YTD

UnitedStatesSingaporeMalaysiaJapanNetherlandsTaiwanIsraelGermanyAustriaOthers

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

42%

48%

46%

3%

58%

3%

21%

2018

3%

70%

7%

13%

2021

6%

53%

13%

23%

2023

5%

71%

7%

10%

2020

5%

59%

9%

21%

2022

4%

39%

3%

43%

2016

11%

69%

3%

13%

2019

14%

40%

4%

28%

2017

3%

52%

1%

15%

2015

12%

16%

3%11%

42%

7%

Marketshareamongglobalplayers(excludingChinalocal)

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPRC,Bernsteinanalysis.

JAPANSEMICONDUCTORSBERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP11

EXHIBIT21:TEL'sdryetchmarketsharehasdeclinedsignificantlyin2025.

2023-2025:ChinaWFEbreakdownby

product(DryEtch)

21%

2023

NAURAAMEC

28%

2024

AMATLam

18%

2025

TELOther

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Source:Gartner,Companydisclosures,BernsteinChinaSemiTeamanalysisandestimates.

EXHIBIT23:Amongforeignvendors,LRCXhasgainedmarketsharewithinetch.

2023-2025:Chinamarketshareamong

foreignvendors(DryEtch)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

14%

19%

39%

28%

2023

15%

16%

30%

39%

2024

21%

14%