中国半导体设备：2025年中国晶圆制造设备竞争动态

WetracktheWFEcompetitivedynamicsinChinaannuaIIy(2023,2024);inthiscaIIwerefreshthenumbersfor2025.OveraIIIocaIizationratiorosefrom16%in2024to21%in2025;Deposition,DopingandProcessControImadethebestprogressingrowth.DepositionarestiIItratioreached31%/27%(Exhibit3),supportedbystrongYoYgrowthat37%/67%(Exhibit4),respectiveIy.TheprogressonDoping/ProcessControIwasbetterthanexpectedwith86%/63%YoYgrowthforIocaIpIayers,seIf-sufficiencyreached13/10%,above10%forthefirsttime.Lithography/TrackstiIIdidnICIeaningwasgrowingsurprisingIysIowatonIy8%YoY.ThermoProcessingandCMPachieveddecentYoYgrowthat43%/33%respectiveIy.NAURAfurtherexpandedshareinDepositionfrom64%to65%,andAMECaIsoexpandedfrom1%to3%,whiIePiotech/ACMRsIightIyIostsharewithdeIayinrevenuerecogniNAURArecognizeddopingrevenueforthefirstyearandisaIreadythesecond-IargestIocaIpIayerinthesectorwith27%share.WithinDryEtch,AMEC/NAURAsharesarestabIeat47%/48%.ThedynamicswithinothersectorsremainIargeIyunchanged.onlyexceptionat+36%YoY.From2018-24,ASML/KLAC’sChinarevenuecapturedstronggrowthat32%/28%CAGR,butin2025therevenuewasdownHSDYoY,indicatingthatthereisindeedsomepuIIforwardsasthecompetitionfromIocaIpIimited.ComparingTEL/AMAT/LRCXwherethecompetitionwithChinesevendorsinDeposition/DryEtchismoreintense,between2018-24cIearIyTELbenefitedmorethanAMAT/LRCXasthepriorityforIoc2018-24CAGRat25%/12%/15%,respectiveIy.However,interestingIyLRCXrevenuein2025wasup36%YoYwithTEL/AMATat-20%/-12%,webeIieveit’smainIyduetothecustomermixchange,astheincrementaIdemandin2025wasmainIyadvancedIogicwhereLRCXhashighershare(mostDryEtchtoweexpectgIobaIvendors’exposureinChinawiIIfurthernormaIizeasnon-Chinademandisgrowingfaster,andIocaIpIayerscouIdacceIeratesharegaingiventhepuII-forwardfromthegIobaIpIayerssIoweddown.DryEtchsegmentshaveIargeTAMandseIf-sufficithreethatbenefitsfromtheirreversiIocaImemorycustomershavesignificantIyreviseduptheirpIanthenextfewyearsduetothememorysupercycIe,andwebeIieveadvanceacceIeratecapacityexpansiongiventhesurgeindemandforIocaIAIchips.SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.FirstPubIished:27May202621:30UTCCompIetionDate:27May202618:17UTCQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May202627May 2026Closing27May 2026ClosingPricePriceCurTickerTargetPerf.Cur2025A2026E2027E2025A2026E2027ECurTicker688012.CH(AMEC)OCNY455.05500.00120.0%CNY3.404.957.18133.892.063.3002371.CH(NAURA)OCNY654.77680.0065.6%CNY5.6610.2216.41115.664.139.9688072.CH(Piotech)OCNY667.00580.00312.9%CNY3.328.1212.40200.982.153.88035.JP(TokyoElectron)OJPY52,50059,20083.9%JPY1,250.881,504.141,848.7742.034.928.4O454.89525.00148.2%9.4212.1715.5648.337.429.2LRCX(LamResearch)O322.68340.00249.8%4.145.687.9878.056.840.46525.JP(Kokusai)OJPY7,770.008,240.00107.0%JPY128.63200.23274.6160.438.828.36146.JP(DISCO)OJPY67,63085,00058.9%JPY1,246.281,733.622,127.3354.339.031.86857.JP(Advantest)OJPY27,13039,200231.2%JPY534.21735.65870.0950.836.931.27735.JP(Screen)MJPY11,22012,60070.5%JPY486.61572.60662.2423.119.616.96920.JP(Lasertec)OJPY41,53050,000134.1%JPY937.82893.18976.6144.346.542.5O1,376.401,700.0092.1%24.7232.6946.9855.742.129.3O1,632.031,971.0083.9%27.9536.9653.1350.338.026.41,997.51JPL2,551.66SPX7,520.361,556.49Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis.NAURA(Outperform,CNY680.00):AsthedomesticWFEleader,NADeposition(PVD,CVD),DryEtch(ICP),ThermoProcesses,andlogic,DRAM,NANDplayers,benefitingfromEPI),commonlyperceivedasthedomesticWFEcompanywiththebesttechnologyandwidestglobalrecbenefitfromtheWFEdomesticsubstitutioninChinawithaccelerationsharegain.Piotech(Outperform,CNY580.0ALD)withexpansioninW2WandC2Whybridbondingequipmentforadvancedpackaging.Piotechhasastrongtrproductinnovation,whichshouldallowittobenefitfromtheWFEdomesticsubstitutioninChiTokyoElectron(Outperform,¥59,200):TEListhe#4SPEsuppliergloballyandthebiggmajorpresencein6productsegments.Itisexpectedtogainshareandexpandmarginswithcompdepreciation.Kokusai(Outperform,¥8,240.00):BatchALDshThebiggestuseofbatchALAMAT(Outperform,$52includingSAMgrowth,anincreasingservicesnarrative,andcapitalLRCX(Outperform,$340.00):CY25commentaQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May2026Inourcompetitivedynamicsreportlastyear(ChinaSemicap:2024WFECompetitivedynamicsinChina),weprovidedacross-sectionviewonChinaSemicapprogressandanin-depthanalysisofindividualChineseWFEvendors.Inthisreport,werefreshourdatato2025andofferourlatestinsightsonthecompetitivedynamicsshiftwithinChina.2025wasanotherrecord-highyearforChina'sWFEdemand,reaching$50bn(accountingfor41%oftheglobalTAMof$122bn,Exhibit1).Domesticsubstitutioncontinuedataremarkafrom16%in2024to21%in2025(Exhibit2).Wehighlightthatwhiletherewaspull-forwarddemandinthe2023and2024ChinatotalWFEnumbers,theacceleratedsharegainsbydomesticvendorsrepresentgenuinetechnologicalandcommercialbreakthroughs.Lookinginto2026and2027,weexpectdomesticvendorstocontinueoutgrowingtheirglobalpeers,ensuringthattherapidshareshiftremainsamulti-yearseculartreGlobal&ChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMGlobal&ChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMGlobalGlobalTAM+18%198'25-'28CAGR+18%198'25-'28CAGR'17-'25CAGR175175RoWDemandRoWDemand148121122+12%121122+12%926819%1086519%108656%976190976190976447644772594754594754407251447201713%77China77ChinaDemand6729%16%584537506729%16%584537502523252320182019202020212022202320242025201820192020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E20%26%26%26%26%38%41%41%39%38%39%ChinaTAMChinaTAMShareSource:Gartner,SEMI,BernsteinestimatesandanalysisQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May2026ChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareChinaWaferFabChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAManChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareUSDbnChinaTAM67Globalsuppliershare4437433923332222026E2027E2028E26%34%43%Source:Gartner,SEMI,Companyreports,BernsteinestimatesandChinaWaferFabEquipment(WFE)TAMandDomesticShareUSDbnChinaTAM67Globalsuppliershare4437433923332222026E2027E2028E26%34%43%Source:Gartner,SEMI,Companyreports,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis77'25-,28CAGR'17-'25CAGR+16%58444%26%5045+29%25223202213%3832120206%120194%Domesticsuppliershare57%46%020183%227202521%65202314%7020174%202420218%Self-sufficiency(DomesticShare)16%QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.Iin@28May20265ChinaIsWFEseIf-sufficiencyratioadvancedto21%in2025,yettheprogressremainshighIybifurcatedacrossdifferentprocesssteps.BasedondomesticseIf-sufficiencyandtheChinaTotaIAddressabIeMarket(TAM)foreachsegment,wecategorizethemarketintothrprimeronsegmentsofWaf•TypeA:LargesegmentswhereChinesepIayersaremakingsubstantiaIprogress(DryEtchandDeptechnoIogybarriers,whiIehigh,aremoresurmountabIetbrokenintocoresuppIychains.In2025,seIf-sufficiencyinDryEtchandDepositionreached31%and27%,respectiveIy.ThiswassupportedbyrobustYoYgrowthof37%forDryEtchand67%forDepositionamongIocaIpIayers.ThesefiguresconfirmourthesisthatthesetwosegmentsareinthesweetspotforrapiddomesticsubstitutionacceIeration.•TypeB:High-barriersegmentswithIowseIf-sufficiency(Lithography,ProcessControI,DopinLithographyremainsthemostchaIIengingbottIeneProcessControIoutperformedourexpectations,achievinga63%YoYgrowthforIocaIpIaseIf-sufficiencyremainsminimaIatroughIy10%.ConverseIy,IocaIsuppIyinDopingandPhotoresistProcessingfaicapturestronggrowth,refIectingthepersistentIyhighentrybarriersandsIowprogressofdomesticpIayersintheseareas.•TypeC:SmaIIersegmentswithreIativRemovaI).WithreIativeIyIowertechnoIoThermoProcessing,andCMPachievedstrongYoYgrowthof8%,43%,and38%,respectiveIy.ChineseequipmentmakersnowdominatethematurenodesintheseareasandaresteadiIypushingintohigher-end,advanced-nodesub-segments.EverydatapointhasBernsteinestimatesfactoredingivencompanyusuaIIydoesn’tdiscIosesuchdetSource:Gartner,Companyreports,BernsteinanaIysisandestimatesQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May2026ChinaSupply(USDmn)&YoYGrowth(CY2025vs.CY2024)4,0003,5004,0003,5003,44786.2%3,44790%2,88180%2,88166.5%62.7%3,00066.5%62.7%70%2,5002,0002,1112,5002,0002,1112,07050%43.3%50%36.5%38.0%36.5%33.2%40%33.2%7647648237.8%656577656577476403351476403351389321026321026DopingThermalOtherMat.ProcessesRemovalCleaningDopingThermalOtherMat.ProcessesRemovalCleaningCMPPhotoresistProcessingSource:Gartner,Companyreports,BernsteinanalysisandestimatesRegardingthecompetitionwithineachsector,wefirstanalyzethecompetitivedynamicsamongstChinethehighbarriersinWFE,themarketshareisskewedtoafewlargeplayersineachsegmentaswecaandweobservedasimilarpatterninChinabasedonourbottom-upanalysis(Exhiillustratedbelow(pleaserefertotheglossaryintheappendixequipmenttype,andcontinuestosecurealargershareofCVDequipment(suchasCVD/ALDforHigh-KMetalleadsinPECVDanditsALDisalsogrowingfast,thoughitexprecognition.AMEChasstartedtorecognizerevenueinLPCVD/ALDasitaggressivelydevelopsnewequipmentwithcommercializationforWFE.Althoughcompetitionisintensifying,theystillfocusondifferentprocessesaremainsmanageable.technicalcompetencyanddeeperbondingwithleadingfabs,whileAMECisemergingasastrongnewentrantwithitssolidtechcapabilities.byitsestablishedstrengthinCCPandstrongongoinggrowthinICPin2025.NAURAstillmaiCCPrevenuewilllikelystarttoemergemoremeaningfullyin2026basedonordersfromlate2024and2025.Thespecificheadcompetition.Overthemediumtolongterm,afterChinesevendocompetitionbetweenthesetwogiantswillbeinevitable,asfabswillseekasecondarysupplierforsupplychainresiliency.throughdecadesofR&Dandco-developmentsupportfromleadingfabs.Inspectionequipment.Overallprogressforlocalplayersinthissegmentwasbetterthanourexpectationsin2025,drivenbystrongYoYgrowth,thoughaggregateself-sufficiencyremainslow.Therearemanystart-upsfocusingondifferQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May2026segmentsofProcessControlinChinagiventhefragmentednatureoftheequipmenttypes,andSiCARRIERisenteringthespacewithstrongmomearemoreplayersinthisspace,thougheachleaderfocusesondifferentareas.ACMRhasseenasignificantsharegainandexpandeditsmarketpresencetobecomethedominantplayeri•Doping:CETC(privatwhileCETChasmoreexposuretoMediumCurrentImplantersandKingLocalsupplydidnotgrowasrapidlyasothersegmentsin2025,reflectingthehighbarriersandtheslowerprogressofdomesticplayersinthisspace.mass-producedFront-Endphotoresistcoater&developerequipment(recentlyacquiredbyNAUanddoping,localizationprogressremainsslow.ACMRisalsodevelopingitstrackproducts,withrevenueexpectedtobeginscalingprogressively.1)Marketshareiscalculatedwitheachcompany’sforecastedWFErevenueexcludingservicesandparts;2)AMEC,NAURAandPiotecharecoveredbyBernstein;allothercompaniesarenotcovered;SMEE,CETCandMattsonareprivate;3)Alllistedcompani(688082.CH)andU.S.(ACMR.US)Source:SEMI,Gartner,MIR,Companyreports,BernsteinanalysisQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May2026Kingsemi85%NAURA65%NAURA47%NAURA17%NAURA21%Hwatsing85%Skyverse52%Kingstone24%OtherChinesesuppliersNAURA64%MajorChinesePlayersSMEE100%Kingsemi85%NAURA65%NAURA47%NAURA17%NAURA21%Hwatsing85%Skyverse52%Kingstone24%OtherChinesesuppliersNAURA64%MajorChinesePlayersSMEE100%MajorChineseWaferFabEquipmentsuppliersbysegment(CY2024)SegmentLithographyDepositionDryEtchProcessControlCleaningCMPPhotoresistProcessingDopingThermalProcessesOtherMat.RemovalMfg.AutomationOthersShareofWFE24%23%16%12%6%3%3%3%3%1%4%3%ChinaTAM(USDmn)China10,75010,4187,2835,2142,8311,2481,4461,4211,3753851,6511,249supply(USDmn)262,0702,1113217644767885403351N/AN/ASelfsuffi-ciency0%20%29%6%27%38%5%6%29%91%N/AN/AACMR68%ACMR68%Mattson74%CETC73%Mattson74%CETC73%AMEC47%AMEC47%Jingce8%AMECJingce8%AMECPiotech25%Mattson27%Piotech25%Mattson27%PNC10%PNC10%ACMR7%Mattson3%ACMR7%Mattson3%1)Marketshareiscalculatedwitheachcompany’sforecastedWFErevenueexcludingservicesandparts;2)AMEC,NAURAandPiotecharecoveredbyBernstein;allothercompaniesarenotcovered;SMEE,CETCandMattsonareprivate;3)Alllistedcompani(688082.CH)andU.S.(ACMR.US)Source:SEMI,Gartner,MIR,Companyreports,BernsteinanalysisMajorChineseWaferFabEquipmentsuppliersbysegment(CY2023)LithographyonchConesstrolCleotoresistocessingDopingThermalProcessesOtherMat.RemovalMfg.ShareofWFE24%23%15%12%6%3%3%4%3%1%4%3%ChinaTAM8,7628,3585,6404,3202,098,0161,2851,2991,1153031,4471,120(USDmChinaN/A(USDm0.3%17%5%5%25%37%6%7%26%83%N/AN/AMajorChinesPlayeresSMEE100%A63%NAURANAURA52%52%SkyvURAatsing5%Kingstone32%NAURA62%NAURA15%OtherChinesesupplierserseNA1Mattson80%59%59%MRngsemi85%CETC65%AMEC8%8%cePiotechMattsonPNC17%30%ACMR8%1)Marketshareiscalculatedwitheachcompany’sforecastedWFErevenueexcludingservicesandparts;2)AMEC,NAURAandPiotecharecoveredbyBernstein;allothercompaniesarenotcovered;SMEE,CETCandMattsonareprivate;3)Alllistedcompani(688082.CH)andU.S.(ACMR.US)Source:SEMI,Gartner,MIR,Companyreports,BernsteinanalysisJapananddomesticplayerscontinuetobenefitfromstructuralde-Amerivendors(exceptLRCX)arepersistentlylosingmarketsharetoJapanandChinaWFEvendorswithinthedetailedcompetitivedynamicsareillustratedinExhibit8.EachcQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.Iin@28May2026majorpIayers,andtheirmarketshares.ThetopofeachcoIumnreoftheChinaTAM,whichreachedanestimated$50bnin2025,accountingforamassive41%ofgIobaIWFEdemand.observedinrecentyearsdrivenbyfearsoffurtherU.S.sanrobust.WithvirtuaIIynoviabIeIocaIaIternativesanddomesticsubscontinuestobethedominantpIayerandtheprimarybeneficiaryofthissDepositionrepresentsanothercoresegmentoftheChinaWFEmarket.In2025,domesticpIayersmadesubstantiaIprogress,reachinga27%seIf-sufficiencyratiosupportedbyastrong67%YoYgrowthamongIocaIsuppIiers.WithinthedomesticcompetitiveIandscape,NAURAsuccessfuIIysecuredaIargerpieceofthepie,expandingitsmarketsharefrom13%in2024to18%in2025.ConcurrentIy,AMECstartedtorecognizesmaIICVDrevenues,markingastrategicentryintothedepositionspace,whereasPiotechexperiencedasIightshareIossduetodeIaysinrevenuerecognition.OnthegIobaIfront,thede-DryEtchcontinuestobeabattIegroundwheredomesticpIayersarecatchingupatanimpressivepace.In2025,Iocaachieveda37%YoYgrowth,drivingthesegmentIsseIf-sufficiencyratioto31%.AMECdemonstratedremarkabIecommerciaIDryEtchshareinChinaexpandsto28%in2025from22%in2024.ProcessControldeIiveredprogressthatsignific61%YoYgrowthin2025.However,giventhehistoricaIIyIowbase,theovercompetitorsIikeSkyverseandJingceareseveraImoreyearsforIocaIpIayerstofuIIycIosethetechnoIogicaIdeficit.CMPequipmentachievedasteady38%YoYgrowthamongIocaIsuppIiersin2025.BecausethisareahasreIativeIyIowertechnoIogicaIbarriers,ChinamaintainsahighseIf-sufficiencyratio.DomesticpIhistoricaIIeadership,whiIeJapanesesuppIierEbararemainsakeybeneficiaryoftheratio.SimiIartothedynamicsobservedpreviousIy,IocaIsuppIygrowthin2025remainedsIuggitechnoIogicaIbarriersandthesIowprogressofdomesticpIayersagainstthedominatingincumbent,TEL.DopingequipmentmirroredthestruggIseeninDepositionorEtch,underscoringthehighbarrierstoentry.BecausedopingrequiresextensiveverificationonIyevaIuatedattheveryIaststepoftheprocessduetoitsimpaexceptionaIIychaIIengingtocIosethetechnoIogyandknow-howgapagainstestabIishedpIatformIeaders.ChinesepIayershereisaIreadyquitehigh,withNAIeadinginRapidThermaIProcessing(RTP)systems.theremainingIow-singIe-digitshareoftheChinaWFEmarket.QingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May2026EverydatapointhasBernsteinestimatesfactoredingivencompanyusuallydoesn’tdisclosesuchdetails.Source:SEMI,Gartner,MIR,Companyreports,BernsteinanalysisMajorGlobal&ChinesesuppliMajorGlobal&ChinesesuppliersofWaferFabEquipmentinChinabysegment(CY2024)24%23%16%12%6%3%3%3%3%1%4%3%10,75010,4187,2835,2142,8311,2481,4461,4211,3753851,6511,249SMEE/MajorGlobalandChinesePlayersinChinaASML89%NAURA13%NAURA14%Hwatsing32%KingsemiCETC4%NAURA19%NAURA19%Mattson68%Others100%Others100%ACMR18%TEL84%Screen2%Others9%AMAT45%AMATPiotechACMR5%AMEC14%KLA60%1%AMAT34%Mattson8%LAM3%AMAT11%AMAT23%TEL18%AMAT29%LAM22%Screen48%Others49%TEL16%LAM10%28%Ebara31%TEL10%Kokusai11%5%Others21%Veeco7%LAM12%Canon8%Others9%Others8%ASMLkrseKingstone Kokus1%iTELNikonASMI2%5%3%3%1%aSEverydatapointhasBernsteinestimatesfactoredingivencompanyusuallydoesn’tdisclosesuchdetails.Source:SEMI,Gartner,MIR,Companyreports,BernsteinanalysisSMEE/MajorGlobalandChinesePlayersinChinaASML83%NAURANAURASkyverseHwatsing31%Kingsemi5%Kingstone CETCNAURA8%Others100%Others100%ACMRTEL80%AMAT54%AMAT9%Mattson66%ACMR4%AMECAMAT44%54%Mattson8%LAMAMATAMAT33%AMAT43%TELLAM30%Screen45%TELLAMOthers40%3%Others27%TELTEL21%Others8%KokusaiLAMCanon9%7%ASMI2%5%3%OthersVeeco AIOthers7%Others4%KokusaNAURAASML3%iEverydatapointhasBernsteinestimatesfactoredingivencompanyusuallydoesn’tdisclosesuchdetails.Source:SEMI,Gartner,MIR,Companyreports,BernsteinanalysisWehighlightthatwhiletherecord-highChinaWFEspendingin2023and2024waspartiallyinflatedbypull-forwarddemandaheadofgeopoliticalrestrictions,theacceleratedsharegainsbydomesticvendorsreflectgenuine,sustainablecommercialQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May2026breakthroughs.Lookinginto2026and2027,weexpectdomesticvendorstostructurallyoutgrowtheirglobalpeers.Ourlatestindustrymodelforecaststhatdomestictop10equipmentplayerswillexpandtheirmarketsharefrom17%in2025toapproximately25%by2028.Thistrajectoryimpliesastrong~35%CAGRforChineseSemicapplayersbetween2024and2028,completelyeclipsingthemuted,low-single-digitgrowthprofileofglobalpeersintheregion.Asdomesticfabsincreasinglyprioritizesupplychainresilience,thisrapidshareshiftwillremainadefinitivemulti-yearsecularTop5GlobalWFEPlayers&Top10ChinaAggregatedChinaSystemRevenue(CY,USDbn)&ShareofChinatotalWFEMarket807060504030204521%13%7%13%13%21%12%3725%7%252324%11%9%21%9%4521%13%7%13%13%21%12%3725%7%252324%11%9%21%9%7%7%21%21%11% 20% 11%26%6%8%20182019202020212022202320242025TokyoElectron口ASMLAppliedMaterialsLamResearchKLAChinaTop10OthersSource:Companyreports,Bloomberg,BernsteinanalysisandestimatesQingyuanLin,Ph.D.+85221232654qingyuan.lin@28May2026Top5GlobalWFEPlayersChinaRevenueShare(CY,%)60%40%20%△△△△20182019202020212022202320242025TokyoElectronASMLAppliedMaterialsLamResearchAMAT’sChinarevenuesharesareestimatedbyBernstein.WeexcluedAMAT’spannelbusinessgivenmostofitsdisplaycustomersarebasedinChinawhSource:Companyreports,BernsteinanalysisandestimatesCompanyTickerLastestCommentsonChinaWFE(CY2Q26&CY2026)ASMLASML.NVASMLguidedChinatorepresentapproximately20%oftotalnetsalesin2026,consistentwithitscurresignificantdeclinefrom33%in2025and41%in20Managementviewstheelevated2024–2025Chinasaleslevelsasunsustainable,reflectinganormalizationafsubstantialbacklog.AppliedAMATInQ2FY2026,Chinaaccountedfor24%ofsemiconductorsystemsplusAGSrevenue,downfrom30%oFY2026,whererevenuedeclined7%year-over-year.Forthefullcalendaryear,AppliedMaterialsexpectsitsChinabusiness,alongwithitsIslightlyhigher—animprovementfromthepriorguidanceofdownyear-over-year.ManagementexpectsChinatobeflattoslightlyupforthecalendaryear,withICAPSgloballyalsoguidedtobeflatChinaaccountedfor34%oftotalrevenueinQ3FY2026,aslighapproximately$115millionquarter-over-quarterinabsoluteterms.LamanticipatesChinarevenuewilldequarterfromcurrentlevels.ThecompanyexpectsChina'spercentageoftotalrevenuetodecreaseovertimeasgrowthfromglobalmultinationalcustomersoutsideChinaincreases.Chinarepresented24%oftotalrevenueinQ3FY2026,downexpectedfromadditionalUSexportbans.KLA'sviewisthatChinaWFEwillgrowataslowerratethanoverallWFE,withspendinglevelsinChinaremainingrelativelyflatov