KPMG -供应链碎片化 Splintering supply chains

Splintering

supplychains

KPMG.MaketheDifference.May2026

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Splinteringsupplychains

Splinteringsupplychains

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Sectordynamics

Ourteam

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Appendix

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

KPMG.MaketheDifference.

Splinteringsupplychains

TheWashingtonConsensuseraofever-increasingtradeliberalizationisover.Persistenttradeshocks,bothpolicy-drivenandotherwise,continuetoreshapeglobalsupplychains.Theriseoftradewarsandthestrategicuseoftariffs—whetherimplementedormerelyhintedat—aredrivingare-intermediationofmerchandiseflows,creatingnewandcomplexlayersoftraderelationships.

Inthiseraofconstantflux,corporateresiliencehingesonclarity.Inthispieceweleveragedatatocutthroughthegeopoliticalnoiseanddistinguishactionablesignalstoguidestrategicdirection.

Globalexportvalue

2000-2025,USDbillion

Exportvalue

Global

financialcrisis

ChinaaccededtoWTO

Tradewar

Covid

pandemic

25

20

15

10

5

-

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Source:UNComtradeDatabase

Numberofcountries

150

100

50

0

200020062010201620209M2025

GreaterChinaUSEUOthers

Toptradingpartnersbycountry

Source:UNComtradeDatabase

200

Redrawingtrademaps

Overthepasttwodecades,globaltradeflowshavechangedsignificantly,largelydrivenbydivergentapproachesadoptedbylargesttradeblocs.

TheUShasincreasinglymovedtoretrenchmentfrom

globalization,markedbyeffortstodecouplesupplychains,primarilyinresponsetoasubstantialtradeimbalance.Tariffsonsteelandaluminumhasevolvedintomanaging

technologyflows,exportrestrictionsonadvanced

semiconductors,andindustrialpolicyaimedatreshoring,or‘friendshoring’topreferredmarkets,criticaltomanufacturing.Intandem,Chinahaspursuedastrategyoftrade

diversification,significantlyincreasingthebreadthofitstradepartners.In2000,GreaterChina’stop5tradingpartners,byexportvalue,accountedfor60%ofitsexports.By2024,thatfigurehadfallento35%,indicatingareductionintrade

dependency(a).

Europehasadoptedabalancedapproach,maintainingtraderelationswithbothpowerswhilesafeguardingstrategic

industries.TheoutcomeisanuancedpolicylandscapewithamixoftariffsonelectricvehiclesfromChina,relianceongasfromRussia,andasemiconductorindustrythataccountsforonly8%ofglobalproduction.

Source:(a)UNComtradeDatabase

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.DocumentClassification:KPMGConfidential3

Splinteringsupplychains

Splinteringsupplychains

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Sectordynamics

Ourteam

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Appendix

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

KPMG.MaketheDifference.

Theprevailingnarrativeisoneofwidespreaddecouplingandaggressivereshoring.However,thedatarevealsamorenuancedreality.

Totaltradeflowsbetweeneconomicblocsin2000and2025

2000and2025,USDbillion

WhileEuropelargelymaintainedaconsistenttradebalanceasoverallflowsexpanded,Greater

China'sexportgrowthstoodinsharpcontrasttotheUS,whereimportssignificantlyeclipsedexports.Thesedivergenttradeimbalanceshavefueledgeopoliticalfrictionandservedastheprimary

justificationforpunitivetariffs.However,despiteyearsoftariffs,theUS-Chinatradeimbalancehasnotimproved.Thedeficithasshifted,notshrunkandwhatoncecamedirectlyfromShenzhennowarrivesviaHanoi,MonterreyandJakarta.

Decouplinghasnowbecomerecouplingthroughintermediaries.

Tradediversificationviaselectedtopcorridors

2013-2025,%

ExportCAGR

(5)%

(10)%

China>USMexico>USCanada>USVietnam>USChina>Vietnam

2013–20172018–20212022–2025

20%

15%

10%

5%

-

Source:UNComtradeDatabase

Note:Emergingmanufacturinghubs(EMH)consistsof10countrieswithsimilarcharacteristicsthatarekeybeneficiariesofchangingtradeflow;EU27represents27membercountriesafterBrexit;GreaterChinaincludesChina,MacaoSARandHongKongSAR

Source:UNComtradeDatabase

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Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Splinteringsupplychains

Sectordynamics

Appendix

Ourteam

TheriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependenciesKPMG.MaketheDifference.

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Agroupofcountriesdesignatedas‘emergingmanufacturinghubs’havebenefitedfrompolicy-driventradefrictions,suchastariffs,bycreatinganindustrial‘bufferzone’.However,thistradediversionhasalsocreatednewdependenciesontheseintermediarynations,manyofwhichhaveeconomictieswithChina.Recentincreasesintariffsonthesecountries,aimedatdiscouragingthediversion,arelikelytoslowtheexportgrowthoftheseemergingmanufacturinghubs.

Emergingmanufacturinghubs

2018-2025,USDbillion(column,LHS)and%(dot,RHS)

700

2025exports

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

14%

2018-2025export

12%

CAGR

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

-

MexicoVietnamIndiaMalaysiaBrazilThailandIndonesiaTurkeySouthAfricaCambodia

Middle-incomeindustrialcountriesMiddle-incomeindustrializingcountries

Keyfeatures

+100USDbillionof2024totalexport,orstrongexportgrowth

Labour-intensiveormid-techfocus

Limitedownershipofcoretechnologies

Complementaryproductionbases

RatherthanreplacingChina’singlobalvaluechain

Geographicadvantage

Strategicallylocatedwithinglobaltraderoutes

MembersofFTAs

BenefitfromtariffadvantagesthroughFTAs

Source:UNComtradeDatabase,UNIDOCountryClassification

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Splinteringsupplychains

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Sectordynamics

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Ourteam

Appendix

TheriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependenciesKPMG.MaketheDifference.

Thedatashowsthatsomeemergingmanufacturinghubshavebeenmoreeffectiveintranslatingtradegrowthintosustainableeconomicgrowth.Othersriskbecomingmereassemblyzoneswith

minimaldomesticvaluecapture.Thetruebeneficiariesoftradediversionarethosethatsuccessfullyestablishthemselvesasefficienttradeintermediariesandcanprogressivelymoveupthevaluechain,movingbeyondfinalassemblypoint.Whilerobustdomesticpoliciestoattracttradeandfostereconomicdevelopmentarecrucial,geographicaladvantagealsoplaysacriticalrole.Proximitytokeymarketsremainsasignificantdeterminantofsuccess.

GrowthinglobalexportversusGDPgrowth

2000–2025,timesgrowth,sizeofbubblesrepresents2025exportvalue

Growthintotalexport

Vietnam

GreaterChina

Cambodia

India

Turkey

10152025303540

GrowthinGDPOthereconomicblocs

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Brazil

SouthAfricaMexico

5

Emergingmanufacturinghubs

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

0

EU

USA

Source:UNComtradeDatabase,UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization,Worldometer

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.DocumentClassification:KPMGConfidential6

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Splinteringsupplychains

Sectordynamics

Appendix

Ourteam

SectordynamicsKPMG.MaketheDifference.

Sectordynamics

Notallsectorsfaceequalexposuretotradeshocks.Shockscanbepolicy-driven,suchasadjustmentstostatutorytraderulesliketariffsorsanctions,ornon-policy-driven,arisingfromeventssuchasnaturaldisasters,pandemics,orconflicts.Theimpactdependsonacombinationofstructuralfactorsthatdetermineboththelikelihoodofdisruptionandtheseverityofconsequences:

Inputandmarketconcentration

•Doestheindustryrelyonasmallnumberofcountriesorregions

forkeyinputs?

•Istheindustryhighlydependentonlimitedsetofsuppliersor

majorbuyerscreatingpowerimbalances?

Example:Taiwanproduces92%ofsemiconductor

chipsbelow10nm,

substitutionincaseofdisruptionisvery

Source:(a)EconomyInsights,2026;(b)CNBC

challenging(a)

Supplychaincomplexity

•Doestheindustryoperate

throughalong-multi-tiersupplychainwithmultiple

intermediariesthatincreaseopacityandfailurepoints?

•Doestheindustrydependonlong-distanceorstrategicallysensitivelogisticcorridor?

•Areproductionprocesseshighlyspecialisedortechnically

complex?

Example:Amodernpassenger

vehiclecontains30,000+partsfrom4,000+suppliersacross100+

countries.WhenafiredestroyedtheUSfactoryofakeymagnesiumpartssupplier,manyautomakersfaced

shortages,includingadomesticUSOEMthathadfullstoppageof

productionattwoofitsplantsformorethanaweek(b)

Adjustmentcapacity

•Canfirmsrapidly

switchtoalternativeinputsorreroutethesupplychainwhentradedisruptions

occur?

•Canlabourandcapitalassetsbereallocatedeasilyacrossproductsormarkets,oraretheylockedintohighly

specialiseduses?

Example:Anew

pharmaceuticaldrugmanufacturingfacilityrequires3-5yearsofregulatoryapprovals

Strategicsensitivity

•Istheindustry

consideredstrategicallysensitive(e.g.,nationalsecurity,energy,food,health,etc),increasingexposureto

government

interventionorprotectionism?

Example:Exportcontrolsoncriticalmineralscan

seriouslydisruptthecleanenergyanddefencesupplychains,andinrecenttimeshavebeenimposedwith

quick,anddestabilizing,effect

Demandelasticity

•Whentradeshocks

raisefinalproduct

prices,doesdemanddeclinesignificantly?

•Canconsumers

absorbprice

increaseswith

limitedsubstitution?

Example:Insuliniscriticalfordiabeticsandcannotbesubstituted.The

inelasticityofdemandmeanspharmaceuticalcompaniescanpassthroughanytariff

Market

concentration

Demandelasticity

Strategic

sensitivity

Supplychaincomplexity

Adjustmentcapacity

Highexposure/lowflexibility

Limitedresponsivenesstotradeshocksintheshortterm;supplychainsremainlargelyfixedunlessdisruptedbypolicy-drivenorstructuralchanges.Most

shiftsrequiresignificantcapitalandtimeinvestments.

Lowexposure/highflexibility

Highlyexposedsectorsadjustto

tradeshocksthroughrapidsupply

chainreallocationandtradediversion,withlimitedpersistenceoforiginal

traderoutes.

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Splinteringsupplychains

Sectordynamics

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Sectordynamics

Ourteam

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Appendix

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

KPMG.MaketheDifference.

Strategicresponses

Inthefaceofsupplychaindisruption,companiescanemployarangeofstrategies.Theoptimalchoicedependsonsectorstructure,competitiveposition,andareasofhighestexposuretotradeshocks.

LowExposure/HighFlexibilityMediumExposure/MediumFlexibility

Description

Strategy

Type

Exposure

Description

Strategy

Type

Exposure

Geographic

diversification

Market

concentrationSupplier

diversification

Distributeproductionacrossmultipleregionstoreducetariffandcountry-specificrisksthroughtradediversion

Expandsupplierbasetolimitdependencyrisksandimprovebargainingpowerduring

disruptions

Adaptive

Adaptive

Logistics

diversification

Product

redesign

Usemultipletransportmodesandroutestolimitdisruptionfromcongestionandconflicts

Redesignproductstousealternativeinputsandreducelock-intovulnerablesuppliers

Adaptive

Adaptive

Adjustmentcapacity

Supplychaincomplexity

Productportfoliorationalization

Simplifyproductlinestoreduce

interdependenciesandenablefasterreconfigurationduringshocks.

Adaptive

Buildstrategicsafetystocktosmoothproductionflowsduringshort-term

disruptions

Defensive

Inventorybuffering

Market

concentration

StrengthenliquidityAdjustmentbuffers

Defensive

Strengthencashreservestoprovidefinancialflexibilityforabsorbingcostsand

withstandingdisruptions

capacity

Service&ecosystembuffering

Defensive

Demandelasticity

Bundlesproductswithservicestoreducepricesensitivityandimproveresiliencetocostshocks

Regionalizationandnearshoring

Adaptive

Supplychain

Shiftsupplychainsclosertoendmarketstoreducecross-bordertariffsandlogisticrisks

complexity

Textileandapparel

Examplesectorswithlow

exposure/highflexibilitytotrade

shocks,whicharebestservedbyanadaptivefocustochangetoavoiddisruption:

Forratingrationaleoneachdimension,

clickhere

ElectronicsAutomotive

Examplesectorswithmedium

exposure/mediumflexibilitytotradeshocks,whicharebestservedbya

balancedapproachtocombine

resiliencewithselectiveadaptation:

Forratingrationaleoneachdimension,

clickhere

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Splinteringsupplychains

Sectordynamics

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Sectordynamics

Ourteam

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Appendix

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

KPMG.MaketheDifference.

Strategicresponses

HighExposure/LowFlexibility

Exposure

Strategy

Description

Type

Strategicsensitivity

Strategicstockpiling

Governmentpartnership

Maintainreservesofcriticalmaterialstoensuresupplycontinuitywhentradeflowsarerestricted

Engagewithgovernments/regulatorstogainpolicyvisibilityandgetexemptions/supportduringdisruptions

Defensive

Defensive

Demandelasticity

Costpass-throughmechanisms

Producttiering&segmentation

Usecontractualpricingclausestotransfertrade-shockcostsalongthevaluechainandstabilizemargins

Offermultiplepricetierstopreservevolumesbyshiftingdemandacrosssegmentsduringpriceshocks

Defensive

Defensive

Supplychaincomplexity

Verticalintegration

Bringcriticalproductionstagesin-housetoimproveinputcontrolandreducesupplierreliance

Adaptive

Examplesectorswithhighexposure/lowflexibilitytotradeshocks,whicharebestservedbyadefensivefocustobuildresiliencetowithstanddisruption:

Criticalminerals

Pharmaceutical

Forratingrationaleoneachdimension,

clickhere

Theefficiency-resiliencetrade-off

Everystrategytoincreaseresiliencecarriesacost.Geographicdiversificationmeanssacrificingscaleeconomies.Inventorybufferingtiesupworkingcapital.Verticalintegrationaddsmanagementcomplexity.Thequestionisnotwhethertopayforresilience,buthowmuch,andwhereisthatinvestmentbestdeployed.

Thesestrategicchoicesfundamentallyreshapehowcompaniesallocatecapitalandstructuretheiroperations.Thefinancialimpactofresilienceinvestmentscanbeanalyzedthroughtheireffectonfirms'balancesheetsandoperationalefficiencymetrics.

©2026CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.DocumentClassification:KPMGConfidential9

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Splinteringsupplychains

Sectordynamics

Appendix

Ourteam

FinancialarchitectureoftradeshockresilienceKPMG.MaketheDifference.

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

Anticipationsof,orreactionsto,tradeshocksreshapefirms'capitalandoperatingmodels.ThesedecisionscanbecapturedthroughaCapitalIntensity(CI)—OperationalFlexibility(OF)matrix,whichmaps

capitalandoperatingexpenditureoverrevenueacrosstime.

Capitalintensityvsoperationalflexibilitymatrix

Capitalintensity:assesseslong-termstrategy,reinvestmentsandeconomiesofscale.Buthighratiosmayalsopose

strategicrisksiflarge-scaleinvestmentsgetimpactedbyturbulentmarketperiods

Operationalflexibility:measuresday-to-daycostefficiencyandtheabilitytoadjustcapacityandcostsquicklywhendemand,supply,orregulationsshift

Findingtherightbalancebetweencapitalintensityand

operationalflexibilityiscrucialfordevelopingacorporate

‘winningformula,’whichreflectseachcompany’suniqueDNAanditssector’svulnerabilitytotradeshocks.

Oilliiiperatonalteenu

LowflexibilityHighflexibility

LowcapitalintensityHighcapitalintensity

Q3

Architects/coordinators

Lowcapitalexposurebutlimitedabilitytoreroutesupplychains

Q4

Asset-lightspecialists

Lowcapitalneeds,highabilitytopivotsourcingandproduction

Q1

Asset-heavyoperators

Highsunkcostsandrigidproductionnetworksamplifytradeshockimpact

Q2

Integratedbrandowners

Highcapitalcommitmentoffsetbyoperationalagilityandpricingpower

Capitalintensity(Capex/Revenue)

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Splinteringsupplychains

Sectordynamics

Appendix

Ourteam

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FinancialarchitectureoftradeshockresilienceKPMG.MaketheDifference.

Capital-intensivesectors,suchaselectronics,faceconstraintsthatlimitrapidoperationalpivoting,drivingthemtowardasset-heavyresilienceCapExmodelsincludingregionalizationandnearshoring,and

verticalintegration:

Contributionoftop100electronicscompaniesbyCAPEXversusOPEX

2001–2025,Quadrantsarepeggedto2001CIandOFmedianlevels.Firmquantityisfixedattop100byrevenueperyear

CompanyCount

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

2001200520092013201720212025

Q1:Asset-heavyoperators

Q2:Integratedbrandowners

MarketCapitalisation(a)

2001200520092013201720212025

Q3:Architects/coordinators

Q4:Asset-lightspecialists

Intangibleassetsaccountfor92%ofS&P500marketcap

(OceanTomo,2025)

•Despitestablecompanycountsacrossquadrants,market

capitalisationhasconcentratedinQ1—Asset-heavy

operatorsaftermajorshocks.Thisshiftisdrivenbyfirms

combininghighintangibleinvestmentwithstrategicCapEx

whencapitalwascheapandbyinvestors’preferencefortech-heavyoperators.

•AnincreaseinmarketcapitalizationconcentrationduringQ1,withoutacorrespondingriseinthenumberofcompanies,

resultedinasustainedeffect.Thisshifttowardsasset-selectivemodelsdemonstratesthatmarketdominanceisincreasinglydefinedbycontroloverintellectualproperty,reinforcedbyownershipofcriticalphysicalassets.

Readthe

DellandLenovocasestudyhere

toexplorehowlegacyelectronicsmanufacturersnavigategeopoliticalandlogisticalchallenges

Notes:(a)Thesignificantchangeinmarketcapfromquadrant1toquadrant2in2025wasattributabletothemoveofonecompany(Apple)fromonequadranttoanother.

Source:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence

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Splinteringsupplychains

Theriseofintermediaryhubsandnewdependencies

Sectordynamics

Financialarchitectureoftradeshockresilience

Navigatingthegreatrecoupling

Ourteam

Appendix

FinancialarchitectureoftradeshockresilienceKPMG.MaketheDifference.

Operationally-flexiblesectors,suchastextileandapparel,possessinherentflexibilitythatenablesrapidreconfiguration.Buttradeshockscanpromptincreasesin‘resilience’OpExcostsincludingriskteams,digitalmonitoring,dualsourcingfees,supplierauditsandenhancedcompliancecapabilities:

Contributionoftop100textileandapparelcompaniesbyCAPEXversusOPEX

2001–2025,Quadrantsarepeggedto2001CIandOFmedianlevels.Firmquantityisfixedattop100byrevenueperyear

CompanyCountMarketCapitalisation

ratedbrandownershavehighreabletoleverageDirect-To-

toswiftlyrespondtodemanddataegratednetwork.Brandpoweralso pression.