比赛在下一个大型比赛场地开始（英文）

Theracetakesoffin

the

next

big

arenasof

competitionInthearenas,investmentcyclesareaccelerating,valuepoolsare

shifting,andanew

typeofcompetitorisscaling

acrossindustries.AuthorsKevinRussellChrisBradleyNaveen

SastrySuhaylChettihKweilinEllingrudNatalyaGoryunovaEditorCintra

ScottDesignLauraM.MandujanoMarch2026McKinseyGlobalInstituteTheMcKinseyGlobalInstitutewasestablishedin

1990.Ourmissionis

toprovidea

factbase

toaiddecisionmakingon

theeconomicandbusinessissuesmostcritical

to

the

world’scompaniesandpolicyleaders.

Webenefit

from

the

fullrangeofMcKinsey’sregional,sectoral,and

functionalknowledge,skills,andexpertise,buteditorialdirectionanddecisionsaresolely

theresponsibilityof

MGIdirectorsandpartners.Ourresearchiscurrentlygroupedinto

fivemajor

themes:—

Productivityandprosperity:Creatingandharnessing

the

world’sassetsmostproductively—

Resourcesof

the

world:Building,powering,and

feeding

the

worldsustainably—

Humanpotential:Maximizingandachieving

thepotentialofhuman

talent—

Globalconnections:Exploringhow

flowsofgoods,services,people,capital,andideas

shapeeconomies—

Technologiesandmarketsof

the

future:Discussing

thenextbigarenasof

valueandcompetitionWeaim

forindependentand

fact-basedresearch.Noneofour

workiscommissionedor

fundedbyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution;

weshareourresultspublicly

freeofcharge;and

weareentirely

fundedby

thepartnersofMcKinsey.

While

weengagemultipledistinguishedexternaladvisers

tocontribute

toour

work,

theanalysespresentedinourpublicationsareMGI’salone,and

anyerrorsare

ourown.Youcan

findoutmoreaboutMGIandourresearchat

/mgi.MGI

directorsShubhamSinghal(chair)ChrisBradleyTanguyCatlinKweilinEllingrudSylvain

JohanssonNickLeungOlivia

WhiteMGIpartnersArvindGovindarajan

MekalaKrishnanAnuMadgavkar

JanMischkeJeongmin

SeongThe

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionContentsAt

aglance

3Introduction

5Executivesummary

10CHAP

TER1Growth

takesoffin

future

arenas

21CHAP

TER

2Arenasarereshaping

theindustriallandscape

31CHAP

TER

3Omniscalers

areescalatingcompetitionacross

arenas

58CHAP

TER4Thearenasareconcentratedin

theUnited

States

and

China

66CHAPTER

5Arenaimplications

and

actions

fordecision-makers

78Future

arenas

compendium

83AI

foundation

84Digitization

88Electrification

94Hard

tech

98Newbio-frontiers

104Acknowledgments

107Endnotes

108Technicalappendix

1192The

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionAtaglance—TheMcKinsey

GlobalInstitutepreviouslyidentified

18

future

arenas

of

competition—from

AI

services

to

space—that

areincreasingly

writing

the

global

growth

story.Indeed,over

thepast

three

years,

these

18industrieshavegrownroughly

four

timesas

fastasotherindustriesinmarketcapand

ten

timesas

fastinrevenue.

Arenasare,bydefinition,

the

fastest-growingandmostdynamicindustries.

As

theirscaleandreachinto

thebroadereconomyexpand,itis

fair

to

say

that

weareallin

thesearenasnow.—Since

2022,

an

“AI

foundation”

set

ofindustries—semiconductors,

cloud

services,

and

AIsoftware—has

added

$500billion

in

revenues

and

$11

trillion

in

market

cap.Infrastructuredemandandinvestmenthaveescalatedrapidlyinanticipationof

AIdeploymentordersofmagnitudelarger

than

today.Companies

thatdesignanddeploycomputingpoweratscalehaveso

faraccruedmostof

theincreaseinmarket

valueandprofit.—

Meanwhile,

growth

continues

to

surgein

digitalindustries,

whilemanyphysical

arenas

arepoised

to

take

off.Digitalindustries,suchase-commerceanddigitaladvertising,arecapturingagrowingshareof

theattentioneconomy,especiallyinemergingmarkets,evenaschatbotsreduceopen-web

trafficandagenticcommercecreatesnewcompetitive

fronts.Otherarenascontinuetoescalateat

varyingpaces,

fromrobotaxisrollingoutindozensmorecities

worldwide

toobesity

drugs

thatarenowsixoutofevery100USprescriptions.—

Ninelarge

competitors—we

coin

them“omniscalers”—are

spendingheavily

and

spanningmultiple

arenas.

Thenineomniscalerscollectivelygeneratedover$700billioninoperatingcashflowin2025andinvestedmore

than$800billioninR&Dandcapitalexpenditures

thatsameyear.

Theircapabilitiesand

financialcapacitycompoundas

theycompeteinarenaafterarena,

expanding

togeneraterevenuesinasmanyasninearenas.—

Companiesheadquarteredin

theUnited

States

and

the

Greater

Chinaregion

account

for90percent

of

arenas’market

value

today.UScompaniesleadin

14of

the

18arenasinmarket

capand

teninrevenues.ButChinaisgainingground,especially

whenmeasuredbyrevenueshares.

Therestof

the

worldstandsby—fornow.4FuturearenascompendiumAIfoundation

Electrification

Newbio-frontiersThe

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionDigitization

Hardtech1Anewglobalgrowthstory2Fivethemesfor18arenas5Implications

andactions3Nineomniscalers4Regional

dynamicsTechnical

appendix

IntroductionEntering2026,record-breakinginvestmentinsemiconductors,cloudservices,and

AIsoftwareandservicesispoised

to

transformhowglobalcompaniescreate

value.

This

fast-growing“AI

foundation”forbusinessisaccelerating

thegrowthofdigitalecosystemsandenablingnewphysical-worldapplications,

fromspaceandrobotics

todronesandother

formsof“physical

AI”

thatsense,decide,andactin

thereal

world.

At

thesame

time,novel

weight-loss

therapiesarereshapingpharmaceuticalpipelines,electrificationisadvancingsteadily,andgeopoliticsisincreasinglyinfluencinghowcriticalindustriesarebuiltupandprotected—particularly

through

technologysovereigntyandsupplychain

resiliencepolicies.All

thishasrapidlyevolvedsinceMcKinseyGlobalInstitutepublishedThenextbigarenasofcompetitionin2024.

Wedefinedarenasas

thoseindustries

with

thehighestgrowthratesandthemostcompetitivedynamism,

wheremarket-sharechangesare

thenorm.

With

thisdefinition,12arenas

wereidentifiedbyanalyzingmarketdata

from2005

to2020.1

Theoriginaldozenincludedcloudservices,e-commerce,biopharmaceuticals,andelectric

vehicles(EVs).

Although

theseindustriesrepresentedonlyabout

10percentoflarge-companyrevenues,

theyexplainedhalf

thegrowthinmarketcapitalization.

Theygrew

twiceas

fastasothers,

withroughlydouble

theR&Dintensity

and

triple

the

profitability.Basedon

themarkersof

these12arenasover

thelast

twodecades,MGIidentified18

futurearenas—industriesshowingearlyindicationsof

thesamepotential

toreshape

theglobaleconomyover

thenext

twodecades.Somerepresententirelynewdomainsofcompetition,suchassharedautonomousvehiclesandspace.Others,likesemiconductorsande-commerce,reflect

theongoingevolutionofearlierarenasas

technologyresetsandinvestmentcyclesintensify.

Throughout

thisreport,

werefer

toall

18as“futurearenas,”likely

toleadingrowthanddynamism

to2040,evenas

thisgroupischanging

thebusinesslandscape

today.2

Together,

these

18

futurearenascouldgenerate$29

trillionto$48

trillioninrevenuesby2040(seesidebar“About

thenextbigarenasofcompetition”).In

this2026update,

we

focuson

the

18

futurearenas

toexplorehowcompetitionisunfolding

withinthem.

With

this

focus,

weseeacceleratinginvestment,shifting

valuepools,andanewindustriallandscapeemerging.Lookingbacknow,even

with

justa

fewmore

years’data,itseemsourviewswere,ifanything,conservative.Chapter

1presentsevidence

that

the

futurearenashave

faroutgrown

therestof

theeconomysince2022andaredrivingadisproportionateshareofmarket

valuecreation,

whichis

why

theyarereshaping

the

technology

frontier,capital

flows,

talentmarkets,andsupplychains.3Chapter2

tells

thestoryofrecentdynamicsacross

thearenas.

Tosee

the

forest

for

the

trees,wegroup

theminto

fivebroadclusterswithsimilarmacro-leveldrivers:

AI

foundation,digitization,electrification,hardtech,and

new

bio-frontiers.Here

we

see

the

record-breaking

surge

ininvestmentin

AIandadjacentindustries,

theemergenceof

AI’sphysicalconstraints,andhowdigital

businesses

are

being

recharged

with

significant

implications

for

further

growth

potential.Thechaptercontinueswithalookatsome

technologicalstepchangesinbatteries,autonomousvehicles,obesitydrugs,andotherarena-shapingdevelopmentsin

thephysicalrealms.6FuturearenascompendiumAIfoundation

Electrification

Newbio-frontiersThe

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionDigitization

Hardtech1Anewglobalgrowthstory2Fivethemesfor18arenas5Implications

andactions3Nineomniscalers4Regional

dynamicsTechnical

appendix

Chapter3exploreshowasmallgroupofhighlycash-generativecompaniesareexpandingacrossarenas

through

thecompoundingeffectsof

financialresources,innovationcapabilities,andboldexecution.

Wecall

them“omniscalers”

todrawattention

to

theirarena-spanningscope,

whichpositions

them

toreuse

theircapacity

toscale.

At

thesame

time,

focusedchampionscontinue

tocompete

vigorously:Nvidia,

the

world’smost

valuablecompanyat

the

timeof

writing,playsmainlyin

onearena—semiconductors.Chapter

4

tracks

theglobalrace

througharegionallens.USandChinesecompanies

figuremostprominently,followedbyplayersbasedinEuropeandpartsofadvanced

Asia.Differencesinmarketstructuresshape

thesedynamics,alongsideeachregion’sexistingstrengths.Chapter5concludes

withastrategyperspective

tohelpCEOs,seniorexecutives,andpolicymakersactonearlysignsofindustrialshifts

thataremostrelevant

tocompaniesandeconomies.Frombothdefensiveandoffensiveperspectives,howcancompaniesandcountriesbestprepare

for

thenextbigarenasofcompetition?7FuturearenascompendiumAIfoundation

Electrification

Newbio-frontiersThe

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionDigitization

Hardtech1Anewglobalgrowthstory2Fivethemesfor18arenas5Implications

andactions3Nineomniscalers4Regional

dynamicsTechnical

appendix

SidebarAbout

the

next

big

arenasofcompetitionMGI

published

Thenext

bigarenasofcompetitionin

2024

to

answer

twoquestions:

Which

industries

are

doing

themost

toreshape

the

world

of

business

today?

Whichindustries

will

do

the

most

to

reshape

the

world

ofbusiness

tomorrow?To

tackle

these

questions,MGI

used

alongitudinal,

company-level

data

settracking

2,970

companies

from

2005

to2020

to

analyze

the

industries

marked

bytwo

characteristics:

They

capture

an

outsize

share

of

the

economy’s

growth,

andmarket

share

within

them

changes

hands

to

anoutsize

degree.

The

presence

of

these

levels

of

growth

and

dynamism

indicates

that

a

newcompetitive

gameis

underway,

most

oftenprompted

by

a

new

bundle

of

technologiesand

business

models.

These

are

what

we

callarenas.

Over

the

last

20

years,

12

industries

stood

out

on

both

growth

and

dynamismmeasured

by

shifting

market

shares

across

bothrevenue

and

market

cap

(Exhibit

A).Understanding

arenas

is

important

for

a

few

reasons.For

starters,

they

account

for

major

shiftsin

investment,

R&D,

and

value,

as

well

as

the

emergence

ofmany

new

and

growing

global

corporations.Furthermore,

once

we

started

to

recognize

the

factors

that

pointto

thepotential

formation

of

an

arena,

wecouldidentify

a

set

of

future

arenas.

To

do

this

future

scouting,

we

scan

for

technology

and

business-model

step

changes

thatcoincide

with

escalatory

investment

races.

These

conditions

must

also

come

with

anaddressable

market

that

enables

global

scale—one

that

is

large,

growing,

or

both.20

-8 Biopharma,3.2

Videoand

audioentertainment,

1.0Change

in

industry’s

share

of

total

market

cap,2005–23,percentage

pointsNote:

This

exhibit

was

firstpublishedinCapturingthenextbigarenasofcompetitionintencharts,McKinseyGlobalInstitute,Nov2025.Source:McKinsey

ValueIntelligence;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysisMcKinsey

&

CompanyExhibit

A

The

12past

arenas

exhibited

outsize

shu代erates

and

growth

shares.Market-cap

shu代erates

and

growth

share

for

57industriesSemiconductors,5.1Consumerinternet,

3.1Software,

3.9Industrialelectronics,

1.8Information-enabled

business

services,

1.0Marketcap,

$

trillionCloud

services,2.4Electric

vehicles,

1.2Payments,

1.4E-commerce,2.2

Consumerelectronics,

3.3Shu代e

rate(increasein

market-cap

share

among

companies

in

each

industry),

2005–23,percentagepoints10090807060504030FuturearenascompendiumAIfoundation

Electrification

Newbio-frontiers Circle

size=marketcapin

2023The

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competition Arenasof

todayOtherindustriesDigitization

Hardtech1Anew

globalgrowth

story2Five

themesfor

18

arenas5Implicationsand

actions3Nineomniscalers4Regional

dynamicsTechnical

appendix

-6-2-40428AI

software

and

services851,500–4,600(17–25)Cloud

services2201,600–3,400(12–17)Electric

vehicles4502,500–3,200(10–12)Digital

advertising5202,100–2,900(8–10)Semiconductors6301,700–2,400(6–8)Sharedautonomous

vehiclesn/a

610–2,300Space300960–1,600

(7–10)Cybersecurity160590–1,200

(8–12)Batteries98810–1,100

(12–14)Modular

construction180540–1,100

(6–10)Streaming

video160510–1,000

(6–11)Video

games230550–910(5–8)Robotics21190–910

(13–23)Non-medicalbiotech140340–900

(5–11)Future

airmobilityn/a

75–340Obesity

drugs24 120–280

(9–15)Nuclear

fission18

65–150

(7–13)Total7,25029,000一48,000

(8一11)Source:Companyannualreports;McKinsey

ValueIntelligence;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysisMcKinsey

&

Company9Applying

this

framework

looking

forward,

MGI

identified

18

potential

arenas

of

thefuture

that

could

significantly

increasetheir

share

of

global

GDP

and

generate

an

estimated

$2

trillion

to

$6

trillionin

profitsinrevenues

by

2040.18

future

arenas,by

2040revenueestimate,

$billionE-commercein

our

scenarios

for

2040

(ExhibitB).

Thisreport

focuses

on

the

18

future

arenas,not

to

resize

our

original

2040

scenarios,

but

to

see

what

is

happening

on

the

way.Sidebar

(continued)About

the

next

big

arenas

ofcompetitionThe

18

future

arenas

could

generate

$29

trillion

to

$48

trillion2022–40,

%)

14,000–

20,000(7–9)

FuturearenascompendiumAIfoundation

Electrification

Newbio-frontiers4,000The

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionDigitization

Hardtech2040

estimate

(CAGR,1Anew

globalgrowth

story2Five

themesfor

18

arenas5Implicationsand

actions3NineomniscalersRevenue,

20224Regional

dynamicsTechnical

appendix

Exhibit

BExecutive

summaryArenasare

where

to

find

themostgrowthandcompetitivedynamism.Goinginto2026,

we

findanAI

foundationispoised

toenablenewbusinessmodelsand

technologyresetsinmany

future-facingindustries—fromdigitalplatforms

tophysicalrealms,includingroboticsandspace.Electrificationisadvancingsteadily,newbio-frontiersarerefreshingproductpipelines,andgeopoliticsisshapingwhereandhowcriticalindustriesaredevelopedandprotected.A

lot

has

happened

since

McKinsey

Global

Institute

published

The

next

big

arenas

of

competitionin2024.In

thatresearch,

wedefinedarenasas

thoseindustries

with

thehighestgrowthratesandthemostcompetitivedynamism,

wheremarket-sharechangesare

thenorm.

With

thisdefinition,12arenas

wereidentifiedbyanalyzingmarketdata

from2005

to2020.4

Theoriginaldozenincludedcloudservices,e-commerce,biopharmaceuticals,andelectric

vehicles(EVs).

Arenaindustriesgrewtwiceas

fastasotherindustries,

withroughlydouble

theR&Dintensityand

triple

theprofitability.Similarfeaturescharacterizethe18industriesthatlookmostlikelytoevolveintothenextbigarenasofcompetitionoverthecomingyears.Thesefuturearenas,aswecallthem,includeAIsoftware

and

services,cybersecurity,shared

autonomous

vehicles,and

modular

construction.Ifthepastisanyguide,these18arenaswillbetomorrow’scentersofcompetition,innovation,andvaluecreation.

Andsince2022,the18havealreadygrowndramaticallyfasterthantherestoftheeconomy.Together,theyhaveaddedroughly$18trillioninmarketcapitalizationand$1.4trillioninrevenuesin

justthreeyears.Future

arenas

are

not

only

expanding

at

disproportionate

speed;they

arereshapingcapitalflows,industrial

dynamics,regional

competition,and

the

strategic

calculus

of

companies

andgovernments

alike.Growth

takes

off

in

the

future

arenasSince2022,

futurearenashavepulledaway

from

thepack.

Witha29percentCAGR

from2022

to2025,

theircombinedmarketcapgrewnearly

four

timesas

fastasnon-arenas.Revenuesover

the

sameperiod

tellasimilarstoryinevenstarkerrelief.Futurearenas’revenuesrose11percentperyear,

whilenon-arenas

wereessentially

flatonaggregate.Over

thesame

three-yearperiod,capital

expendituresandR&D

forarenasalsosurgedahead,

witha14percentCAGR,compared

with

just4percent

forotherindustries(ExhibitE1).

Asaresultof

thismomentum,

futurearenashavedrivenabouthalfof

totalmarket-capgrowthandrevenuegrowthover

thepast

few

years.

Theyareat

thecenterof

theglobalgrowthstorynow.Beyondgrowth,rapidmarket-shareshifts—thatis,highlevelsofdynamism—aredefining

featuresofarenas.

After

just

three

years,

from2022

to2025,earlysignalspoint

tomore

fluidcompetitionintheseindustries.

Theconstantleapfroggingof

frontier

AImodelsisanexampleof

thiscompetitive

dynamismat

work.At

thesame

time,

wecontinue

tosee

threekeyingredients

formingarepeatable“arenacreationpotion.”

Theyare:a

technologyorbusiness-modelstepchange;anescalatoryinvestmentpattern;andalargeorexpandingaddressablemarket.

Thepotionrecipestillappears

to

fuelarenas’stronggrowthandhighdynamism.Looking

for

the

threeingredientsisa

way

toidentify

futurehigh-growth

arenaslikely

topropelglobalGDPin

thedecadesahead.11FuturearenascompendiumAIfoundation

Electrification

Newbio-frontiersThe

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionDigitization

Hardtech1Anewglobalgrowthstory2Fivethemesfor18arenas5Implications

andactions3Nineomniscalers4Regional

dynamicsTechnical

appendix

2025total,$

trillion Note:2025datahasbeenannualized

basedon

2025

quarterly

data

available

as

of

publication,with

most

companies

reportingthrough

Q3.1Analysis

is

basedonasampleof3,770largecompanies

globally.

It

covers

69

industries,

including18future

arena

industries.The

2022

baseline

alignswiththecutoffrom

Thenextbigarenasofcompetition,McKinseyGlobalInstitute,Oct2024.

Market-capdata

covers

2022

(average

of

start

and

end

of

2022)through2025.

Excludingcompanieswithnodataforcapitalexpendituresand

R&Davailablefor2025,

but

existingfor

2024

(excludes

530

companies).Source:

McKinseyValue

Intelligence;

McKinseyGlobal

InstituteanalysisMcKinsey&CompanyThe18future

arenas

are

pushing

forward,some

at

warp

speedThe

futurearenasarelargely

tracking

within

thegrowthboundariesourresearchmodeled

for2040,

withsomegrowingnotably

faster.5

In

fact,eightarenasareracingaheadnear

theupperboundof

the

trajectory.

Thatgroup

features

AIsoftwareandservices,sharedautonomous

vehicles,cloudservices,EVs,digitaladvertising,cybersecurity,semiconductors,andspace.

Theother

ten—includingstreaming

videoand

futureairmobility—areadvancingroughlyasexpectedorareinearlierstagesofgrowth(ExhibitE2).Tomakebroaderpatternseasier

tospotacross

the

18

futurearenas,

wegroup

theminto

five

themes:AI

foundation,digitization,electrification,hard

tech,andnewbio-frontiers(ExhibitE3).

Trackingbytheme,

weseean

AI

waverisingatopastillsurgingdigital

wave.

At

thesame

time,electrificationisscalingandhard

techispoised

to

takeoff.

Alongnewbio-frontiers,non-medicalbiotechremainsnascent,

whileobesitydrugsrampup.12ExhibitE1Future

arenas

are

at

the

center

of

global

growth.Performanceoffuturearenasandotherindustries,CAGR,2022–25,%1Marketcap29833

93CapitalexpendituresandR&D14Revenue11FuturearenascompendiumAIfoundation

Electrification

Newbio-frontiersThe

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionDigitization

Hardtech FuturearenasOtherindustries1Anewglobalgrowthstory2Fivethemesfor18arenas5Implications

andactions3Nineomniscalers4Regional

dynamics1.33.35

50Technical

appendix

41MarketcapStatusFuture

arenas1

Annual

revenue

growth

rates

in2022–40scenarios

vs

actual,%annualgrowth,vs20400

10

203040502022–25,%2scenario3AI

software

and

services17

2555142Sharedautonomousvehicles434●69Cloudservices12

17

1832Electric

vehicles10

121819Digitaladvertising8

10

1424Cybersecurity8

12

1320Semiconductors6

8

厂1042Space7

8

1034Obesity

drugs9

15

38mm

35Streamingvideo6

9

1121E-commerce7

8

912Robotics5

13

2320Batteries3

12

149Future

air

mobilityNegligible2022baselinerevenue38Modularconstruction3

6100Nuclearfission2

7

138Videogames2

5

810Non-medicalbiotech

0

5

115Note:2025datahasbeenannualized

basedon

2025

quarterly

data

available

as

of

publication,with

most

companies

reportingthrough

Q3.1Arenasareindescendingorderbystatusvs

2040and

revenue

CAGR.2Market-capdatacovers2022–25(with2021–22usedasthe

baselineaverage).3Growth,dynamism,andthethreearena-creationconditionsareassessedtodeterminehow

afuture

arena

istracking.Seethe

compendiumfor

more

details.

4RevenueCAGRmeasuredvs2023duetonegligible

2022

baseline

revenue.Source:

McKinseyValue

Intelligence;

McKinseyGlobal

InstituteanalysisMcKinsey&Company13ExhibitE2Most

arenas

have

grown

within

or

above2040

scenario

trajectories.Arena

revenue

growth

scenarios

with2026statusTracking

toward2040scenario:

Upperbound

Middletrack

LowerboundFuturearenascompendiumAIfoundation

Electrification

Newbio-frontiers Arenas

report

scenarios

for2022–402022–25revenue

CAGR(actual)The

race

takes

off

in

the

next

big

arenas

of

competitionTotalFuturearenasDigitization

Hardtech1Anewglobalgrowthstory2Fivethemesfor18arenas5Implications

andactions3Nineomniscalers4Regional

dynamicsTechnical

appendixOtherindustries

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