外媒外刊-元计算Meta：人人都想成为云-Meta Compute：Everyone Wants To Be A Cloud-20261006

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MetaCompute:EveryoneWantsToBeACloud

MetaCompute:EveryoneWantsToBeACloudZuckTakesPlanB?SpaceX2.0,Bedrock2.0,MSLIsn'tGivingUp,ScalingRecSysby10x...ClusterMAXrankingcomingsoon?

JUL2

/p/meta-compute-everyone-wants-to-be

WithBloombergheadlinessuggestingMetacouldbecomeaNeocloud,themarket’s

reactionwasimmediate:aggressivesell-offofNeocloudslikeCoreweave&Nebius,anddebatesof“overcapacity”comingback.Let’ssettherecordstraight–webelievethatbothtakesareerroneousandthatMeta’sdatacenter&computeprocurementwillacceıerate,notslowdown.Capexin2027willbeshockinglyhigh.Injustthefirstsixmonthsofthe

year,Metahascontractedover5GWofcapacityacrossCloud&Colo,andthat

doesn’tevenincludealltheiracceleratingself-buildactivity.Everythingiscomputerandeverythingisaneocloud.

Source:

SemiAnalysisDatacenterModel

Meta’scapacityunderconstructionjustkeepsaccelerating.WeshowbelowMeta’stwolargestcampuses–thesetwopicturesrepresent2.5GWofcapacityunderconstruction!Bytheway,ifyoubelievedthelaughableheadlinesthat“halfofUSdatacentersand

delayedandonly5GWareunderconstruction”,weshowyouherethatjusttwo

datacentersarehalfofthis.Readourpiece“

StopSayingHalfofUSDatacentersAre

Delayed

”formoreonwhytheseheadlinesarecompletelyoff.

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Source:S

emiAnalysisDatacenterModel

Ofcourse,thisnaturallyraisesthequestionsofwhatMetawilldowiththiscompute,andwhetherthey’regoingtofloodthemarketwithallofthissupplyiftheyturnintoaNeocloud.Broadlyspeakingweseefourmajorhigh-valueuse-cases,whicharealldifferentiedand

verydifferentrelativetowhattraditionalNeocloudsdo:

1.FrontierAIModels:MetahasNOTgivenupontrainingfrontiermodels.ThebulkofincrementalcapacitystillgoestoMetaSuperintelligenceLabs,andwethinktheteamiscurrentlyexcitedabouttheirprogress.Afollow-upreportwilldiveintoMSL,their

uniquedatastrategy,anddiscusstheirchancesofcatchingupwithAnthropicandOpenAI.Ofcourse,our

TokenomicsModel

subscribersalreadyknowourtakesandhaveaccesstoallofthisreal-time.

2.RecSys:WebelieveMetathinkstheycanscaleupAdsrecommendationsystemsby>10xincomplexitytoacceleraterevenuegrowth.Thatrequiresbothinference&

trainingcomputefortheirRecSysmodels.Theycanalsodomoregenerativetargetedads.

3.(SemiAnalysisExclusive)WebelievethatMetaisinfinaltalkswithAnthropictogetaccesstoprivateinstancesofClaude.ThiswouldbeakintoBedrock,

Foundry,Vertexfromotherhyperscalers(

readourdeepdivehere

).Thereare

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multipleuse-casesforMeta,rangingfrominternalusage,tobuildingthepremier

Sales&MarketingSaaSpoweredbyFrontierAIAgents.WeexpectMetatolaunchatoken-as-a-serviceendpointandincreasinglymoveupthestack,leveragingits

networkanddistribution.InitiallyitwillbetheirownmodelsexternallyandAnthropicinternaly,butovertimewebelievetheywillserveAnthropicandOpenAImodels

externally

4.WeexpectMetatostrikeafew“SpaceX-type”deals.Elonisasalesgenius,andhecreatedabrandnewmarketsegment:large-scaleon-demandcomputeata

hugepricingpremium.WethinkMetawantsin,butselectively.Afterall,justa

couplehundredMWscanalreadydrive>$10Bofyearlyrevenue!WeexpectatenbilliondollarAnthropicdealtokickofftheflywheel.

Thishighoptionality,withfourhigh-value-addoptions,makesiteasyforMetatokeep

aggressivelycontractingcompute.MetaSuperintelligenceremainsthecoreengine,butifitdoesn’tworkout,therearemanyhigh-marginalternativestosellcompute.ItisessentiallyaCFO’sdreamandmakesitveryeasytogoall-inoncompute–webetSusandida180°flipwhenshesawthepricingofSpaceXcomputedeals!Metawon’tbeanormalbare-

metalIaaSvendorwith~30%grossmargins–allitsoptionsarehighvalue,andenabletoeasilyaffordpayingamargintootherNeocloudsinordertoacceleratetheirfleetbuildout-evenifMSLdoesn’tworkout.

Our

DatacenterModel

breaksdownquarterbyquartertheircapacityadditionsacross

selfbuild,datacenterleasing,andcloudrenting.Afternearly10GWofdealssignedsinceearly2024,thebulkoftheircapacityadditionsarenowthrough3rdparties.WeexpectthistocontinueandbelievethatMetawillbeahugesourceofRPOgrowthforthelikesof

Coreweave,Nebiusandothers.

Ourmodelalsobreaksdown,quarterbyquarter,Meta’scapacityintoMSL,otherAI,andnon-AI.WhileMSL’shugegrowthisunderstandable(theyneedtokeepupwithAnthropic&OpenAI!),thesurgeofOtherAIin2026suggestsplentyofoptionalitytomonetize

computeacrossRecSys,“SpaceXequivalent”,andBedrock-typetokenasaservice.IfRecSysscalesabitlessthanexpected,theyhaveotheroptions.Ofcourse,ifMSLfails,Cloudcapacitywillskyrocket.

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Source:SemiAnalysis

TokenomicsModel

,

DatacenterModel

Let’snowdigintothesefouroptions.WestartwiththeSpaceX-likedeal,andtheBedrock-typeambition.Then,behindpaywall,wediscusstheoutlookforMSLandforRecSys.

SpaceXdreams–Elon’sgeniusdeals

ElonMuskshockedtheAIinfrastructureworldwhenheannouncedthefirstAnthropicdeal.Hedouble-shockedtheworldwhenhecameupwiththeGoogledeal.Thereasonis

simple:therevenueperMWofthesedealsarerespectivelytripleandquadruplewhatpeersarecharging,asshownbelow.TheprofitperMWgapis,ofcourse,evenlargergiventhecoststructureisroughlythesame.

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Source:

AICloudTCOModel

SpaceX’spricingontheGoogledealisevenhigherthanwhatweobserveontheon-

demandorshort-termrentalmarket.Elonessentiallyinventedanewmarketsegment.Our

AICloudTCOmodelteam

trackshundredsofGPUclouddealseveryyear,includingall

contracttermslikeSLA,pricing,contractlengthetc.That’swhywehave,byfar,theworld’sbestinformationonGPUpricingbycontractlength–

seeapreviewinourfree

dashboardhere

.

Wehavenevereverseenadealthatlarge,andthatshort:thedealisthreeyears,butwithoptiontocancelfrombothpartieswithin90days–soit’seffectivelya3-monthdealwith

automaticrenewal.

Thereasonthishasneverhappenedisbecauseveryfewcompaniescandoit.The

financingburdenexcludesalltheNeocloudsfromparticipatinginthatmarket–forlargeclusters,theyneedtosecureanofftakerovermultipleyears.Thetop3hyperscalers

could’vedoneit…buttheyallseehigher-valuelong-termoptions,suchasMicrosoft

gettingOpenAI’sIPinexchangeforequityinvestments&compute,AmazonfocusedonincreasingtheadoptionofBedrockandTrainium,GooglesimilarlywithTPUsandVertex(nowGeminiEnterprisePlatform).

Thiseffectivelyleavesonlytwocompaniesthatcantrulycapitalizeonthisnewmarket:OracleandMeta.Fortheformer,weseethisasamassiveblow.It’syetanotherpieceofevidencethattheycould’vedoneamuchbetterjobatmonetizingalloftheirgigawattsofcompute.AlookatthevaluationtrajectoryofOraclevsSpaceXillustratesthemassivedivergence.Forboth,Gigawattsareanincreasingportionoftheirvaluation,andalargedriverofthatevolutionwithinthelastyear.

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Source:SemiAnalysis,SEC,CNBC/Bloomberg/Reuters

EnterMeta.Giventheirlaser-focusonbuildingSuperintelligence,theyprobablydidn’tputenoughthoughtintotheCloudoption.SpaceXandElonpavedthewayforthem.At

$50B/Gigawattofannualrevenue,itbecomesaneasycall.Justallocating200MWof

computetoanexternalcustomerdrives$10B/yrofrevenue,atsky-highmargin.Andtheabilitytocancelthatcontractwithin90daysmakesiteveneasier–iftheywanttogiveMSLmorecompute,theycan,inshortnotice.

That’salsoaperfectmatchforMeta’sdatacenterconstructionstrategy.Ayearago,wewerethefirsttotracktheirnew“tent”ultra-fastdatacenterdesign.Sincethen,MetatentshavebeenpoppingupallovertheUS!Bybringingdatacentersonlinefast,evenif“lowerquality”,it’llbeeasierforMetatomonetizecomputeinaSpaceXfashion.

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Source:

SemiAnalysisDatacenterModel

Assuch,weexpectMetatoannouncesuchadealsoon.It’sagreatwaytogetthe

flywheelstarted.Anthropicisourprimesuspect,butotherscouldstepinaswell,suchasOpenAIorGoogle.

WillMetabuildthenewBedrock?

AnothergreatoptionforMetaistostrikeadeeppartnershipwithfrontierlabstoselltheirmodelswithMeta’sowncompute.Assaidearlier,webelievetheyareinfinaltalkswithAnthropictogetprivateaccesstotheirLLMs,justlikeAmazonhasthroughBedrock

(

agreementexplainedindetailhere

).ThismeansthatforMeta,anotherwaytomonetizetheircomputewillbetosellClaude.Weseethreemainpaths:

1.Partofitcouldbeforinternalusageonly.MetaneedsClaudetokens,andAnthropiccan’tkeepupwithdemand.Therearealsosecurity&privacylayers.Inthefuture,wecouldseeotherverylargeenterprisesstrikingsuchdeals,e.g.aJPMorganprobablywon’tgoall-inonClaudeiftheydon’thavethesecurityandprivacyguaranteesthatprivateinstancesenables(intheirowndatacenters).

2.MetacouldsellClaudeasaserviceinthesamewayBedrockdoes.Theyhave

capacityandownthefullstack,fromCPUtoGPUtonetworking,withhighsecurity.However,asanewentrant,it’llbetoughtocreatealltheenterpriserelationshipsthat

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AWShas.ButMetahastheoptiontoleveragetheircustomerbaseofadvertisersandbetterintegratefrontieragentsandLLMsintotheirsuite,creatinganewlarge-scaledistributionpath.

3.Metacouldgoevenmoreverticalandstartbuildingapplications.Asoneofthe

world’slargestadvertisingplatforms,theyhaveapathtobuildingaSales&

Marketingpowerhouse.Integratingfrontiermodelsandagentswouldincreasetheiroddsofbuildingaworldclasssolution.

Thereis,ofcourse,alsotheopportunitytodistributemodelstofreesocialmediausers,

andtothebroaderMetaecosystemincludingthingslikeconnectedglasses.Itappears

morelikelythattheywillprioritizeuseoftheirownmodels,butit’sgoodtokeepthe

optionality,andtheylikelyhaveagreatpathtomonetization.Thehugedistribution

potentialandnetworkeffectmeansthatthelikesofOpenAIandAnthropicarelikelyseeingthisashighlystrategic,andreadytomakeconcessionstogetapieceofthepie.

ScalingAdsRecommendationsystems:howmuchcanMetaaccelerate?

ForMeta,thekeyAIstoryishowRecSysiscontributingtorevenueaccelerationat

massivescale.Attheendof2022andearly2023,themarketwidelysawthecompanyasenteringastageofmaturityandlowgrowthamongstaninvestmentcycle.Today,it’s

crystalclearthatMetahasdramaticallyre-acceleratedrevenuegrowth,inlargepartduetoGPUinvestments.Theyhavebeenakeytrigger,bothontrainingandinference:RecSysmodelsforadshavebeengettingbiggerandmoreexpensivetorun,butmuchsmarter,

drivingbetteryieldsforadvertisersasseenintheabilityforadvertiserstopayhigher

priceswhilestillseeingstrongROAS.AtthesametimetheRecSysmodelsforcontenthaveledtomoretimeonplatformacrosstheFamilyofApps,improvingthemonetizablesurfaceareaandleadingtostrongadimprssionsgrowth.

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Source:

SemiAnalysisTokenomicsModel

Thekeyquestiononeveryone’smindisnow–isthissustainable?HowmuchcanMetaacceleratecorerevenuegrowth?WhileMetaisplayingcatchinguponthefrontierlab

side,thenon-MetaSuperIntelligenceAIchipfleetisproducingoutstandingROI.WecoverthissplitcomputesplitbetweenRecSysAI,MetaSuperIntelligence,andotherMetaLLMproductsinourTokenomicsModel.

Behindpaywall,wediscusstheoutlookforRecSysscaling,andthenforMetaSuperintelligenceLabs.

PriortoGEM,adrankingranonDLRMswhichdon’tfollowthesameexponentialpowerlawsseeninLLMandthereforefailedtoscalewithcompute.Meta’sgenerative

recommenderwork,HierarchicalSequentialTransductionUnits(HSTU),changesthatbyreformulatingrankingasasequentialpredictionproblemthatscalesinperformancewithcompute.Itbeatpriorbaselinesby~66%onrankingmetricsandisproductionizedas

GEM,Meta’sadsfoundationmodel.BenefitsofGEMincludes:

·Ascalablemodelthatis4xbetteratdrivingadperformancegainsandcomputeefficientperunitofperformancegain

·Anewtrainingstackthathas23xeffectivetrainingFLOPswith~1.4xincreaseinMFUusing16xmoreGPUs

WethinkMetacanprofitablyabsorba>10xincreaseinAdReccomputewiththisnew

modelbecauseeachadditionalgigawattcorrelatesdirectlytobetterpredictions,bothonthetrainingandinferenceside.Thisimprovementisshowingupthroughanincreaseinimpressionsdeliveredandaveragepriceperad.InQ12026,adimpressionsgrew19%

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YoYandaveragepriceperadgrew12%YoY.ThisisacontinuationCFOSusanLihas

attributedtheirincreasedaveragepriceperadtoimprovedadperformanceandtargetingcapabilities.AfterdoublingGEM’strainingGPUs,adconversionrateonInstagram

increasedonbothInstagramandFacebookby5%and3%,respectively.

WhatmakesthegrowthsustainableisthatthehigherpricesarejustifiedbecauseROASisgrowingdirectlywithCPMs.MetaAdvantage+Shoppingdelivers32%higherROASwith17%lowercost/actionrelativetomanualcampaigns.Metacangrowadrevenueinoneoftwoways:(1)byshowingmoreads,or(2)chargemoreperad.Butthere’salimittohowmanyadsitcanshowinausers’feedbeforeitdoesmoreharmtotheuser’sexperiencethangoodtoadrevenuegrowth.AslongasROAScontinuestogrowwithprice,whichhasshowntobethecase,Metacankeepliftingyieldevenasadimpressionsgrowth

eventuallystartcomingupagainstad-loadceiling.

MetaSuperintelligencelabs–

anotherdropout,orarealthreattoAnthropicandOpenAI?

ComputeisthelifebloodofeveryAIresearchorg.Anthropicwouldneversellcomputetoanyofitscompetitors,andit’sthereforetemptingtoviewMeta’sdecisionasadmitting

defeatforMSL.

However,webelievethisframingistoosimplistic.Thereisaworldwhereyoucan

temporarilysellcomputetoyourfiercestcompetitorsANDstillbecomeatruefrontierlab.Likesomuchelsewe’vecoveredinthisarticle,ZuckreallyneedstothankElonfor

showinghimthisplaybook.

WebelievethefollowingisthemostlikelyexplanationfortheSpaceX/Cursoracquisition:

ElonandCursorarebothstillseriousaboutbuildingsuperintelligence.Cursor’s

messagingoverthepast6monthshaschangedfrom“wewanttobuildthebestAIcodingexperience”to“wewanttobuildRSI”.Thisistheethosofafrontierlab,notawrapperstartup.

SpaceXstillhasupto900MWleftafterthe