2026年A股投资策略分析报告：子行业展望

2026年中期投资策略报告：各子行业展望反转与再定价，中国化工迎来再定价

地缘冲突与资源民族主义重塑油价中枢。油价扰动有望同步全球库存周期，基于能源安全的供应链重塑有望推动新一轮朱格拉周期。

国内资本开支转负、反内卷推动行业挺价、美国深度去库周期结束、亚非拉国家拉动边际需求，化工跟随PPI的上行在26年见到反转。2025H2市场股价领先基本面，配置大于选股，2026年以来选股的边际开始逐渐显现。

海外供给出清、国内供给约束、亚非拉供给无法提振，有效的化工资产逐渐稀缺；中国化工盈利底的可靠性进一步提高。亚非拉人均可支配收入快速提升拉动需求，工业品存在长期缺口和通胀可能。

市场在H1重点交易油价、地缘和供应链，H2有望回归双碳、反内卷、涨价。流动性上，市场从交易降息转向交易通胀，利好HALO属性的化工资产。2各子行业展望以滞胀为基础假设，寻找顺利传导的通胀品种。

原油：26年供给断崖下滑，需求韧性仍在，中长期油价有望位于高位

石化：海外供给出清，中国炼化资产价值重估

煤化工：油煤价差重塑成本优势

化纤：反内卷推动盈利上移

聚氨酯：供给扰动与需求补库共振，盈利弹性可期

磷化工：磷矿战略资源与磷肥出口牌照属性增强

氟化工：制冷剂涨价仍是主线，新材料业务重估

硅化工：有机硅供需反转可期

化肥：出口弹性与资源景气并重

农药：景气上行趋势确立

轮胎：全球化产能进入兑现期

两碱：氯碱反转、纯碱磨底

钛白粉：成本供给出清

食品及饲料添加剂：供给扰动仍是主要催化

民爆：西部工程与矿服订单兑现，驱动中期修复3新的一轮库存周期正在启动

中信建投化工价格百分位为过去10年的41.31%；价差百分位为过去10年的10.41%；股价百分位为过去10年的86.17%；PB百分位为过去十年的27.94%。120%中信建投化工行业指数-价差（百分位）中信建投化工行业指数-价格（百分位）化工行业（中信）PB（百分位）化工行业（中信）股价（百分位）100%80%60%40%20%0%86.17%41.31%27.94%10.41%2014/12015/12016/12017/12018/12019/12020/12021/12022/12023/12024/12025/12026/1注：价格和价差取2014.1.4以来的分位数资料

：wind，中信建投行业价格指数快速上行

化工价格指数自2025年11月持续上涨，价格百分位从25年11月16.05%修复至26年4月44.89%。价格分位日期行业平均-标准化百分位44.89%44.74%18.80%18.28%16.21%16.05%15.15%17.14%17.67%18.32%15.15%17.14%17.67%18.32%19.49%20.14%21.34%25.32%25.18%24.33%23.78%24.51%24.49%行业平均-加权

石油化工煤化工聚氨酯化纤氯碱磷化工氟化工硅化工化肥钛白粉农药食品及饲料添加剂20.06%19.20%8.94%2026-04-252026-03-282026-02-282026-01-312025-12-272025-11-292025-10-252025-09-272025-08-302025-07-262025-10-252025-09-272025-08-302025-07-262025-06-282025-05-312025-04-262025-03-292025-02-222025-01-252024-12-282024-11-302024-10-2638.2738.1823.2022.9021.7021.6121.0922.2422.5522.9221.0922.2422.5522.9223.5923.9724.6726.9626.8826.3926.0826.5026.4852.42%

33.28%

33.56%

50.11%

11.16%

56.88%

56.03%

13.19%

54.05%

51.88%

14.75%56.63%

31.51%

36.15%

48.67%

16.34%

52.84%

53.83%

12.84%

50.81%

47.51%

7.06%22.42%

19.24%

14.45%

30.82%

6.37%

48.27%

50.07%

8.56%

46.17%

37.46%

0.13%21.58%

20.30%

13.74%

30.52%

6.42%

46.67%

50.25%

8.61%

45.35%

38.06%

0.01%19.58%

18.46%

13.49%

28.07%

5.91%

43.79%

48.49%

8.45%

44.51%

41.68%

1.02%19.75%

19.02%

14.42%

28.11%

6.50%

41.46%

47.57%

8.16%

41.28%

41.57%

2.67%21.48%

19.18%

13.76%

27.82%

7.77%

36.19%

47.03%

7.19%

37.44%

33.87%

3.47%23.89%

19.34%

14.51%

28.77%

8.86%

36.26%

51.80%

7.13%

39.18%

31.89%

3.80%24.48%

19.68%

15.16%

30.28%

8.69%

36.95%

49.20%

7.62%

39.77%

31.77%

3.47%26.96%

19.38%

14.59%

29.76%

9.27%

36.43%

47.25%

8.75%

41.12%

30.98%

3.23%21.48%

19.18%

13.76%

27.82%

7.77%

36.19%

47.03%

7.19%

37.44%

33.87%

3.47%23.89%

19.34%

14.51%

28.77%

8.86%

36.26%

51.80%

7.13%

39.18%

31.89%

3.80%24.48%

19.68%

15.16%

30.28%

8.69%

36.95%

49.20%

7.62%

39.77%

31.77%

3.47%26.96%

19.38%

14.59%

29.76%

9.27%

36.43%

47.25%

8.75%

41.12%

30.98%

3.23%28.71%

20.61%

14.49%

32.04%

9.74%

36.14%

48.28%

7.14%

38.60%

31.93%

3.05%27.81%

20.10%

14.59%

32.46%

11.06%

36.14%

49.15%

9.26%

39.64%

33.80%

3.06%28.47%

21.97%

13.13%

29.92%

11.66%

37.29%

51.11%

10.85%

40.19%

38.49%

3.67%32.17%

25.38%

16.44%

34.35%

13.58%

37.21%

50.60%

11.88%

43.08%

39.84%

3.45%34.52%

25.40%

19.29%

36.53%

12.87%

33.50%

46.88%

11.59%

34.38%

36.76%

3.40%34.24%

23.91%

19.39%

36.28%

12.81%

33.33%

46.43%

11.28%

31.21%

36.49%

3.67%31.43%

24.45%

19.44%

34.76%

12.53%

34.71%

44.99%

11.59%

34.26%

37.05%

4.27%30.49%

26.13%

20.03%

34.50%

13.76%

35.41%

43.41%

11.64%

36.18%

38.58%

4.61%30.01%

26.84%

20.59%

36.58%

14.06%

35.08%

40.43%

11.97%

34.75%

40.69%

5.36%7.63%7.02%6.97%6.96%7.94%8.70%9.94%6.96%7.94%8.70%9.94%11.50%13.55%14.99%15.40%17.40%17.69%18.45%19.95%18.31%注：价格和价差取2014.1.4以来的分位数资料

：wind，中信建投行业价差指数快速上行

化工价差指数自2025年12月快速上涨，价差百分位从25年12月2.27%修复至26年4月20.01%。价差分位日期行业平均-标准化百分位20.01%18.23%4.06%行业平均-加权

石油化工煤化工聚氨酯化纤氯碱磷化工氟化工硅化工化肥钛白粉农药食品及饲料添加剂20.06%19.20%8.94%2026-04-252026-03-282026-02-282026-01-312025-12-272025-11-292025-10-252025-09-272025-08-302025-07-262025-10-252025-09-272025-08-302025-07-262025-06-282025-05-312025-04-262025-03-292025-02-222025-01-252024-12-282024-11-302024-10-2630.3329.8025.6425.0125.1124.5425.4626.1126.4526.9325.4626.1126.4526.9327.0328.6528.2128.0128.1327.8827.5727.9328.5633.08%

34.48%

27.73%

48.32%

16.57%

25.87%

48.19%

16.86%

21.91%

43.24%

14.75%35.84%

32.93%

27.74%

41.52%

21.12%

27.49%

47.00%

15.48%

25.63%

33.58%

7.06%24.80%

24.08%

26.42%

43.44%

17.54%

29.18%

48.57%

11.36%

35.44%

32.25%

0.13%25.22%

24.88%

26.09%

41.06%

16.39%

26.25%

49.34%

11.34%

31.45%

31.15%

0.01%25.41%

26.42%

28.24%

37.77%

15.32%

26.15%

48.81%

10.97%

33.28%

30.56%

1.02%25.20%

25.12%

28.77%

42.24%

15.08%

23.64%

47.25%

10.45%

25.86%

25.78%

2.67%26.49%

26.37%

28.73%

43.20%

17.21%

22.92%

45.38%

9.05%

31.06%

33.42%

3.47%26.05%

28.14%

28.68%

41.65%

17.88%

24.24%

47.94%

8.80%

34.87%

34.30%

3.80%26.03%

27.66%

29.28%

42.92%

19.55%

25.43%

47.08%

9.47%

37.17%

30.44%

3.47%28.57%

27.52%

29.38%

40.39%

20.57%

25.69%

46.03%

10.18%

39.37%

30.29%

3.23%26.49%

26.37%

28.73%

43.20%

17.21%

22.92%

45.38%

9.05%

31.06%

33.42%

3.47%26.05%

28.14%

28.68%

41.65%

17.88%

24.24%

47.94%

8.80%

34.87%

34.30%

3.80%26.03%

27.66%

29.28%

42.92%

19.55%

25.43%

47.08%

9.47%

37.17%

30.44%

3.47%28.57%

27.52%

29.38%

40.39%

20.57%

25.69%

46.03%

10.18%

39.37%

30.29%

3.23%28.20%

27.30%

26.31%

46.09%

20.06%

24.99%

46.31%

9.27%

39.36%

31.34%

3.05%29.11%

31.52%

29.28%

44.70%

21.75%

24.45%

45.30%

10.77%

40.76%

41.53%

3.06%26.48%

30.88%

28.25%

43.48%

20.36%

25.79%

44.13%

12.08%

42.28%

46.41%

3.67%28.04%

29.55%

28.18%

43.39%

20.50%

25.54%

42.49%

12.53%

39.46%

44.51%

3.45%29.73%

27.44%

29.16%

40.86%

23.65%

25.14%

41.46%

11.57%

37.83%

48.70%

3.40%30.03%

25.21%

29.29%

41.48%

22.56%

25.18%

42.54%

10.72%

37.95%

48.58%

3.67%27.42%

26.53%

28.96%

42.18%

19.55%

26.79%

40.89%

10.52%

40.39%

47.96%

4.27%27.86%

28.55%

27.94%

41.85%

18.77%

27.46%

38.55%

10.29%

41.92%

51.89%

4.61%26.72%

30.87%

29.16%

44.85%

19.40%

28.60%

36.98%

10.90%

45.28%

49.89%

5.36%1.93%7.63%2.27%7.02%0.33%6.97%3.44%6.96%5.65%7.94%6.81%8.70%8.44%9.94%3.44%6.96%5.65%7.94%6.81%8.70%8.44%9.94%8.79%11.50%13.55%14.99%15.40%17.40%17.69%18.45%19.95%18.31%14.31%12.81%12.12%12.54%11.70%10.62%11.87%13.98%注：农药、食品及饲料添加剂以价格代替价差进行加权计算注：价格和价差取2014.1.4以来的分位数资料

：wind，中信建投库存高位回落

化工库存指数自2026年2月迅速下降，库存百分位从26年2月100%降至26年4月78.69%。库存分位日期行业平均-标准化百分位78.69%78.22%100.00%79.49%79.83%84.77%86.99%78.52%80.86%78.55%86.99%78.52%80.86%78.55%77.47%76.59%77.92%76.47%75.65%57.31%60.32%59.91%56.34%行业平均-加权

石油化工煤化工聚氨酯化纤氯碱磷化工氟化工硅化工化肥钛白粉农药食品及饲料添加剂73.68%61.10%62.88%60.70%73.65%73.06%59.54%49.32%54.20%50.96%59.54%49.32%54.20%50.96%47.66%48.61%52.22%57.23%50.37%39.11%36.11%25.57%20.30%2026-04-252026-03-282026-02-282026-01-312025-12-272025-11-292025-10-252025-09-272025-08-302025-07-262025-10-252025-09-272025-08-302025-07-262025-06-282025-05-312025-04-262025-03-292025-02-222025-01-252024-12-282024-11-302024-10-2648.4448.2756.0648.7348.8550.6151.4148.3849.2248.3951.4148.3849.2248.3948.0147.6948.1747.6547.3540.8041.8741.7340.4545.61%

52.24%

53.27%

59.22%

48.94%

32.04%

33.86%

53.06%

31.42%

41.34%

53.36%45.82%

52.79%

45.09%

56.07%

46.42%

40.38%

33.74%

51.51%

34.07%

69.64%

58.60%56.10%

65.24%

56.27%

60.29%

57.36%

46.10%

34.68%

54.11%

43.74%

83.61%

59.05%43.15%

59.96%

52.61%

42.94%

51.62%

41.74%

30.25%

48.26%

41.03%

82.34%

48.79%45.09%

54.40%

51.63%

42.92%

51.43%

43.21%

28.79%

51.39%

41.13%

85.88%

41.97%46.78%

58.42%

52.50%

53.21%

53.44%

40.81%

29.53%

51.49%

41.01%

85.75%

37.57%47.15%

62.05%

55.56%

53.09%

52.76%

48.34%

31.26%

50.47%

45.17%

83.52%

34.88%43.91%

56.55%

47.28%

54.61%

48.50%

48.05%

32.09%

50.81%

42.45%

85.72%

32.87%42.68%

54.99%

48.27%

61.18%

49.40%

50.39%

31.19%

52.70%

39.34%

91.10%

33.83%43.71%

51.26%

44.21%

60.63%

50.73%

46.76%

32.27%

51.89%

37.99%

95.78%

39.35%47.15%

62.05%

55.56%

53.09%

52.76%

48.34%

31.26%

50.47%

45.17%

83.52%

34.88%43.91%

56.55%

47.28%

54.61%

48.50%

48.05%

32.09%

50.81%

42.45%

85.72%

32.87%42.68%

54.99%

48.27%

61.18%

49.40%

50.39%

31.19%

52.70%

39.34%

91.10%

33.83%43.71%

51.26%

44.21%

60.63%

50.73%

46.76%

32.27%

51.89%

37.99%

95.78%

39.35%44.05%

50.95%

42.99%

59.59%

51.54%

40.98%

32.08%

53.08%

39.92%

93.38%

44.70%44.82%

50.08%

44.40%

55.65%

49.94%

39.35%

31.84%

50.32%

39.56%

100.00%

48.31%43.92%

48.35%

46.19%

65.27%

50.62%

33.32%

29.53%

51.42%

38.20%

94.57%

57.49%45.58%

45.67%

42.26%

60.98%

52.97%

34.16%

30.49%

50.64%

36.01%

90.98%

59.21%47.58%

50.73%

38.75%

56.78%

55.62%

32.46%

27.05%

47.07%

42.51%

89.54%

55.34%42.07%

41.66%

39.87%

39.96%

46.32%

26.00%

20.98%

46.46%

40.50%

86.69%

47.33%39.26%

46.95%

40.12%

45.75%

47.01%

32.31%

24.19%

44.85%

38.22%

91.89%

40.43%41.65%

45.93%

38.53%

50.04%

48.20%

30.60%

31.65%

41.20%

35.17%

87.70%

37.37%40.94%

48.32%

37.60%

47.25%

44.01%

27.35%

34.16%

37.30%

35.81%

83.61%

33.95%注：价格和价差取2014.1.4以来的分位数资料

：wind，中信建投开工保持高位

化工开工率指数保持高位，除2月春节影响外，26年开工率分位均高于84%。开工率分位日期行业平均-标准化百分位87.72%86.05%74.95%84.33%65.06%81.23%85.27%86.02%73.90%66.19%85.27%86.02%73.90%66.19%71.13%65.56%70.89%80.07%67.99%68.22%69.32%70.84%59.53%行业平均-加权

石油化工煤化工聚氨酯化纤氯碱磷化工氟化工硅化工化肥钛白粉农药食品及饲料添加剂73.11%67.57%65.23%70.73%68.17%68.17%69.84%64.08%59.11%54.52%69.84%64.08%59.11%54.52%63.64%74.25%77.68%80.87%72.31%79.01%77.78%69.45%48.50%2026-04-252026-03-282026-02-282026-01-312025-12-272025-11-292025-10-252025-09-272025-08-302025-07-262025-10-252025-09-272025-08-302025-07-262025-06-282025-05-312025-04-262025-03-292025-02-222025-01-252024-12-282024-11-302024-10-2668.06%67.83%66.34%67.60%65.01%67.19%67.73%67.83%66.20%65.17%67.73%67.83%66.20%65.17%65.83%65.08%65.80%67.03%65.41%65.44%65.59%65.79%64.27%72.86%

64.97%

70.50%

78.27%

76.87%

55.27%

60.62%

49.64%

63.13%

73.87%

71.90%75.20%

63.09%

71.14%

80.20%

79.44%

51.44%

58.76%

48.14%

66.28%

74.76%

69.36%77.17%

61.85%

72.03%

73.21%

79.86%

48.62%

54.48%

45.82%

61.45%

70.16%

70.71%74.49%

66.68%

71.02%

75.54%

78.91%

53.16%

54.00%

49.08%

61.64%

72.57%

70.78%75.07%

61.67%

60.16%

78.82%

76.42%

52.19%

45.89%

51.58%

59.75%

65.25%

70.86%76.82%

62.94%

64.98%

80.28%

76.56%

55.27%

55.51%

53.85%

60.19%

56.19%

76.97%75.09%

65.27%

68.35%

79.45%

76.12%

52.41%

60.67%

53.25%

60.52%

61.53%

73.57%75.90%

63.69%

68.72%

79.14%

77.80%

54.99%

61.01%

53.51%

63.66%

61.97%

75.06%73.79%

61.22%

68.05%

79.70%

77.27%

54.00%

57.36%

52.03%

64.29%

62.92%

72.51%75.19%

61.87%

66.06%

79.38%

75.09%

53.22%

58.68%

48.01%

60.36%

63.48%

66.54%75.09%

65.27%

68.35%

79.45%

76.12%

52.41%

60.67%

53.25%

60.52%

61.53%

73.57%75.90%

63.69%

68.72%

79.14%

77.80%

54.99%

61.01%

53.51%

63.66%

61.97%

75.06%73.79%

61.22%

68.05%

79.70%

77.27%

54.00%

57.36%

52.03%

64.29%

62.92%

72.51%75.19%

61.87%

66.06%

79.38%

75.09%

53.22%

58.68%

48.01%

60.36%

63.48%

66.54%75.54%

62.82%

64.52%

81.03%

75.41%

52.13%

57.27%

46.23%

59.84%

64.23%

69.13%72.47%

59.42%

63.71%

81.89%

77.06%

50.28%

52.54%

44.99%

64.30%

64.37%

63.21%72.68%

59.37%

63.71%

81.02%

79.60%

45.22%

53.76%

43.30%

67.44%

75.35%

68.69%74.70%

61.50%

65.28%

82.18%

78.71%

47.18%

50.64%

46.53%

67.41%

80.95%

64.34%74.14%

61.37%

72.27%

79.97%

79.32%

45.69%

39.46%

45.79%

62.91%

77.57%

59.66%75.54%

61.61%

72.94%

73.47%

79.99%

41.85%

37.55%

46.92%

59.78%

78.66%

64.33%73.03%

60.94%

68.91%

81.85%

78.31%

46.90%

36.86%

50.84%

61.94%

77.52%

62.26%74.35%

60.89%

67.60%

83.48%

79.66%

46.56%

43.63%

52.68%

64.38%

75.63%

56.94%72.54%

64.94%

66.56%

83.55%

77.95%

47.32%

39.92%

52.30%

66.35%

77.87%

56.17%注：价格和价差取2014.1.4以来的分位数资料

：wind，中信建投消失的库存周期有望重启

过去两年消失的库存周期，源自国内地产的信贷周期失灵和海外美国的深度去库。

地缘冲突带来的油价扰动从原材料的维度重新标定全球库存周期，并有望迎来共振。中国:PPI:当月同比中国:制造业PMI美国:存货额:制造业:非季调:同比美国:存货额:制造业:消费品:耐用消费品:非季调:同比1510560555045404030201000-5-10-15-10-20资料：wind，中信建投化工固定资产投资累计同比回落

化工固定资产投资完成额累计同比在25年6月转负，是周期反转的领先指标。806040200-20-40化学原料及化学制品制造业固定资产投资完成额（累计同比）资料：wind，中信建投化工品规划产能显著改善

化工行业在16-18年实现了可观的盈利、并且在20-21年的高盈利后迎来了资本开支的大幅度增长。但是随着盈利下行，供给释放节奏收紧，经过出清之后的待投放产能，相比此前有了明显的收窄。产能增速2024产能增速2024板块产品2025-2027E产能复合增速4.8%板块产品2025-2027E产能复合增速6.7%5.0%9.8%14.2%0.0%22.3%0.0%2019202020212022202320252026E2027E2019202020212022202320252026E2027E粘胶短纤涤纶长丝涤纶短纤聚酯瓶片PA6氨纶PXPTA己内酰胺己二酸PCPPPE双酚APBATMMA丙烯酸乙烯3.0%7.4%7.1%1.4%6.7%4.6%10.1%8.8%3.5%29.6%33.3%8.0%4.6%3.5%6.0%3.9%8.1%10.1%23.6%12.8%24.5%7.8%13.6%9.6%6.3%36.7%101.6%6.8%16.3%0.0%14.4%0.7%6.0%0.0%6.0%6.0%3.6%6.7%13.9%20.9%9.2%5.6%6.9%26.5%15.0%22.7%43.0%54.8%37.1%9.8%41.3%10.1%0.0%0.0%10.8%8.8%29.6%5.7%10.6%14.9%17.1%14.1%26.5%17.6%12.4%10.8%30.9%20.2%14.1%0.0%8.3%0.0%10.6%0.0%2.0%25.4%0.0%1.8%27.5%12.9%0.0%0.0%0.6%7.6%15.5%22.3%10.9%0.5%-0.7%6.1%10.5%10.3%16.2%8.9%5.7%3.0%2.0%2.5%5.4%5.0%1.1%0.0%2.5%0.6%0.0%4.7%4.9%6.1%1.5%7.4%0.0%5.0%6.3%3.0%6.2%0.9%3.1%10.4%4.7%11.9%1.4%3.9%1.7%3.2%2.1%0.8%0.0%7.5%6.1%1.4%6.7%13.2%6.4%9.0%19.4%0.3%4.1%0.3%4.8%5.9%0.0%12.0%2.7%15.4%2.6%5.6%4.9%5.9%磷矿石黄磷7.4%-2.9%2.9%14.8%-17.9%29.4%-21.4%1.1%1.5%0.0%1.3%38.1%4.7%12.3%0.8%9.7%-5.0%-9.1%10.6%2.6%-20.2%0.7%7.2%1.1%10.3%112.9%0.0%75.8%-0.5%-0.5%7.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.2%2.5%-2.4%2.1%2.8%176.6%-7.9%198.3%17.2%12.9%19.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%26.4%79.9%8.5%40.6%2.6%10.7%1.4%3.8%10.9%0.0%6.1%4.4%-1.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%19.2%13.8%0.0%-4.3%26.5%-5.2%2.3%2.8%3.0%6.6%13.9%5.7%101.0%14.6%1.8%-1.2%5.9%0.0%8.7%1.0%11.3%0.0%5.5%8.5%16.5%12.9%0.0%32.0%0.0%0.0%10.2%-15.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.4%22.7%9.3%3.8%0.0%0.3%0.3%1.0%7.8%1.6%3.4%15.5%0.0%13.3%0.0%0.0%12.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.3%23.6%9.9%6.4%18.9%1.4%0.1%0.0%2.4%2.6%2.3%3.0%2.5%4.2%3.0%2.0%3.6%6.4%5.5%6.9%12.6%0.9%5.8%0.1%4.9%6.1%1.5%9.1%1.8%9.0%6.5%5.2%8.4%工业一铵磷酸铁磷酸氢钙磷酸铁锂磷酸一铵磷酸二铵氢氟酸萤石R22R32R134aPTFEPVDF18.4%137.4%-18.0%116.2%-0.8%0.0%13.3%0.0%0.0%磷化工21.3%7.7%58.4%7.4%0.0%-14.9%-12.5%3.1%0.0%9.0%34.9%0.0%3.8%6.1%12.4%-0.4%0.0%0.0%14.8%10.2%10.3%11.2%10.5%19.7%92.6%8.1%0.0%7.5%10.3%3.8%107.9%0.0%23.2%2.3%9.7%40.2%5.9%0.0%17.0%1.3%0.0%4.1%1.1%11.4%-7.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.3%31.7%5.3%6.2%8.7%24.1%22.2%14.1%14.4%3.1%10.1%13.2%7.2%17.5%5.6%15.2%15.5%15.1%22.7%24.7%18.2%11.4%11.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%氟化工3.1%20.6%56.1%101.1%22.3%18.0%41.3%3.0%0.0%油化工11.3%69.0%2.3%-5.1%11.9%0.0%9.2%21.8%23.2%9.6%5.1%9.0%0.8%0.2%0.5%14.8%1.9%53.8%3.0%18.5%4.9%0.9%0.0%10.4%7.5%0.0%28.3%0.5%0.0%8.1%-6.4%1.1%45.8%0.6%-3.0%0.4%0.0%-4.0%6F13.9%-0.2%13.5%12.5%20.4%0.0%1.9%5.3%14.6%12.7%0.0%41.7%2.3%3.8%2.5%-0.1%工业硅三氯氢硅有机硅DMC原盐电石PVC烧碱(液)烧碱(固)纯碱钛白粉生物柴油蛋氨酸三氯蔗糖安赛蜜草甘膦草铵膦百草枯氯化钾氯化铵复合肥硝酸硅化工盐化工MDITDI顺酐9.0%2.2%5.6%2.2%22.6%0.4%2.4%1.2%9.3%8.1%MTBE环氧丙烷软泡聚醚环氧乙烷BDO丁二烯柴油丙烯酸丁酯甲醇二甲醚醋酸乙二醇炭黑0.0%0.5%3.3%19.8%24.9%26.9%0.0%11.9%-7.1%9.9%7.9%4.9%6.7%32.3%6.9%22.5%17.6%18.5%22.4%3.5%-1.3%-0.7%1.2%-4.7%16.9%25.4%0.1%11.5%2.4%-2.6%4.7%3.3%2.0%10.0%3.3%2.3%3.1%3.8%3.4%7.9%17.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.9%0.6%18.2%23.5%9.4%-2.2%7.0%31.9%16.7%35.7%0.0%4.1%12.2%0.0%1.6%9.3%3.3%36.7%16.3%0.0%7.2%78.3%0.0%0.0%2.5%32.2%13.4%7.6%22.4%32.6%81.1%0.0%37.8%0.0%0.0%4.3%11.0%14.9%8.5%18.8%0.0%0.0%33.6%0.0%0.0%7.1%5.2%0.0%2.4%4.9%9.0%2.8%3.8%5.3%6.3%4.1%0.0%0.0%18.7%15.3%3.6%40.4%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%-18.5%-2.3%17.8%4.3%6.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.0%2.0%0.0%9.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.3%0.0%0.0%2.0%1.5%0.0%7.7%0.0%0.0%7.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%3.5%1.8%0.0%2.8%3.4%0.0%7.0%9.8%1.9%60.7%8.9%20.1%11.2%20.2%6.2%0.0%22.8%5.2%4.2%0.0%3.2%2.6%4.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.7%3.4%2.4%0.0%0.4%0.0%3.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%2.8%1.4%3.9%0.0%0.5%6.2%2.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%6.7%2.4%3.2%0.0%0.5%3.1%2.9%3.2%5.3%4.0%1.9%6.9%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.7%0.0%20.0%0.0%其他36.7%-10.0%0.0%-4.6%6.1%煤化工6.3%5.8%3.8%9.5%0.0%-3.1%2.3%DMF0.0%3.3%0.0%2.7%17.3%0.5%-11.3%合成氨醋酸乙烯尿素7.2%0.0%-0.7%-18.8%-3.3%6.2%0.0%0.0%2.2%4.5%资料：百川盈孚，中信建投关注高开工率化工品

高开工率的化工品，若未来两年供给增速较低，则有望较快走出反转。开工率历史价格

历史价差

2025-2027年

25年开工率相比产品目前价格202080.29%67.25%68.76%91.95%78.70%73.24%81.32%95.81%76.80%67.25%82.13%88.05%72.64%49.62%49.03%60.99%81.16%66.65%90.13%88.77%74.18%78.28%77.16%202184.94%72.91%74.09%88.57%78.45%70.33%78.10%85.05%79.83%72.91%81.44%84.93%67.56%43.90%36.88%65.35%85.83%73.88%87.13%70.42%76.02%73.39%83.38%202272.85%64.57%68.94%88.84%71.09%72.89%74.38%84.28%82.30%64.57%75.41%84.58%70.51%48.02%71.98%70.17%71.99%73.24%86.03%75.42%73.02%70.50%73.55%202377.42%59.78%75.96%89.42%71.15%80.40%76.14%84.35%80.65%59.03%78.60%78.59%87.55%65.90%63.43%71.62%71.75%74.27%86.93%70.44%77.44%75.78%65.30%202486.15%73.20%82.54%83.66%80.86%84.29%82.44%82.12%83.38%73.20%80.21%79.21%87.34%76.07%62.86%75.61%80.72%81.46%82.30%77.13%81.86%79.47%75.72%202588.86%85.54%85.35%85.06%84.61%84.31%83.80%83.22%82.23%82.20%81.86%80.91%80.84%79.98%79.75%79.09%78.92%78.43%78.33%78.01%77.61%76.33%75.73%2026/5/782.54%82.03%88.64%75.19%74.04%91.16%79.80%80.56%86.40%82.03%80.36%78.96%76.13%81.72%85.82%78.47%86.23%72.99%61.51%89.83%68.49%64.26%72.17%分位数52.03%分位数25.76%产能复合增速2.35%6.12%4.79%6.93%1.98%2.88%4.24%4.89%6.35%6.12%2.59%2.32%3.49%6.40%1.64%0.00%2.47%3.03%5.52%7.70%6.66%2.99%6.97%20和21年提升6.25%涤纶长丝聚合MDI粘胶短纤聚乙烯己内酰胺尿素8850192501390084961235018531001285751131242008250775062232.00%60.32%18.03%42.30%32.83%79.02%88.02%0.43%23.49%72.54%42.47%15.46%13.93%-5.20%6.04%29.76%24.03%29.58%13.03%33.50%17.52%87.38%12.53%4.09%-7.21%3.92%12.12%0.08%-5.58%10.74%33.22%36.80%15.92%-4.58%8.17%PX乙烯纯碱纯MDI涤纶短纤聚酯切片氯化铵PC45.93%47.69%67.08%24.94%174584600027932830013275941238草铵膦甲醇0.68%71.47%11.30%53.17%77.27%65.63%17.98%60.63%25.25%84.52%19.44%42.36%14.18%氨纶PA6聚丙烯粒料蛋氨酸醋酸-10.30%-1.58%2.51%0.49%-4.54%30656760337925.13%20.35%0.00%PTA草甘膦资料：百川盈孚，中信建投关注出口占比20%+，出口增速30%+的化工品

海外供给退出拉动出口，化工品直接出口占比有望提升，建议关注海外出口高景气品种。出口/产量出口量同比板块产品2022202320242025截至2026.320242025截至2026.3磷矿石黄磷0.5%0.0%113.2%6.9%0.3%0.0%131.1%6.6%0.1%0.0%90.2%8.7%0.1%0.0%60.4%10.1%0.8%18.3%26.2%12.4%4.0%17.1%22.0%67.7%26.6%27.0%6.4%-68.9%-56.6%-1.6%14.6%182.1%-1.6%-9.4%-2.8%-70.4%-13.7%14.7%-10.5%16.8%20.1%-0.5%26.7%34.2%-11.8%-4.8%15.1%33.0%-10.7%-18.0%15.9%68.5%14.0%22.6%30.4%-76.1%71.6%-2.4%27.3%-6.3%501.6%-6.3%35.7%885.3%-6.3%-23.8%5.9%92.2%-15.2%11.9%-2.7%8.8%56.8%-100.0%231.7%3.9%520.1%231.7%-75.6%-35.0%147.7%10.0%-56.4%-61.9%-6.1%15.9%39.3%15.8%53.0%-14.4%1.9%45.1%-43.0%91.7%35.8%7.2%0.0%12.4%9.9%1.6%4.5%0.6%7.6%8.1%6.6%工业一铵磷酸氢钙磷酸铁锂磷酸一铵磷酸二铵氢氟酸萤石R22R32R134aPTFEPVDF磷化工0.1%0.1%0.1%18.9%28.5%14.0%9.4%16.6%22.9%66.6%34.7%52.1%17.3%19.7%26.5%0.8%0.4%9.0%6.8%11.4%7.2%39.1%29.4%71.9%85.0%103.7%0.4%20.0%36.0%11.0%7.4%18.2%19.6%66.0%24.8%32.6%13.1%15.2%22.5%0.8%0.5%10.1%5.0%10.0%5.0%41.1%26.3%75.5%81.4%87.3%7.7%18.3%32.0%11.3%2.5%21.2%25.1%89.1%30.2%38.3%9.8%15.4%24.2%0.7%0.5%11.2%6.3%5.8%氟化工11.8%35.9%42.1%10.3%20.7%37.6%0.9%0.6%24.0%4.3%-10.2%-6.1%-0.6%2.4%6F工业硅有机硅DMC原盐电石PVC烧碱(液)烧碱(固)纯碱钛白粉蛋氨酸三氯蔗糖安赛蜜草甘膦氯化钾氯化铵复合肥硝酸17.8%22.6%1.1%0.6%16.0%7.9%硅化工盐化工43.6%26.4%46.1%31.9%42.1%79.7%-4.5%22.7%-19.1%-14.8%4.4%8.9%3.4%12.3%5.9%14.5%6.6%40.7%52.5%93.9%99.4%98.1%1.9%9.0%1.4%2.4%38.9%41.9%102.1%72.7%101.2%0.6%14.3%1.5%4.7%46.0%24.5%139.1%81.0%122.8%0.7%15.3%0.1%5.6%-23.6%39.4%7.4%27.1%-58.5%6.5%其他-71.8%50.2%10.8%88.2%3.1%1.3%1.8%6.1%1.4%2.0%-90.3%98.3%资料：百川盈孚，中信建投2025年度：各板块整体仍处盈利底部

2025年化工板块盈利整体仍处底部阶段，根据我们按照上市公司业务分类之后的版块情况：净利率有所改善的行业包括：食品及饲料添加剂、氟化工、化肥、煤化工、氯碱、改性塑料、农药和再生行业；净利率继续下行的行业包括：动力煤、轮胎、磷化工、聚氨酯、原油、天然气、民爆、钛白粉、炼焦煤、长丝、纯碱和硅化工。营业收入（亿元）877.0归母净利润（亿元）113.781.5板块同比同比毛利率同比（pct）净利率同比（pct）食品及饲料添加剂氟化工动力煤化肥1.6%17.2%-13.2%0.3%5.3%9.2%4.8%124.1%-22.1%23.9%12.1%-15.8%-4.4%33.7%27.5%30.8%20.4%17.3%16.8%17.1%13.3%20.9%15.1%24.6%11.3%17.1%23.5%15.7%13.1%21.2%6.9%-0.48.5-1.32.41.0-1.41.2-2.2-0.3-0.3-0.20.3-3.8-2.32.813.0%12.5%11.7%10.2%8.1%6.0%6.0%5.8%5.1%4.5%3.7%3.3%2.8%2.7%2.6%2.6%1.9%1.8%0.6%-0.1%-0.5%-4.3%5.1%0.45.9-1.31.9654.18364.12360.61879.32072.31826.02236.860462.71860.9722.7976.7240.6151.6125.4109.6130.33111.983.126.4105.011.551.739.531.337.164.965.6(0.1)-3.4-20.65533.2煤化工轮胎0.5-1.8-0.4-0.9-0.3-0.7-2.90.0-3.7-3.81.60.63.1-0.10.06.3磷化工聚氨酯原油2.4%10.4%-6.0%-6.1%14.8%3.1%-4.4%-24.2%4.4%-4.3%-11.8%-19.5%-36.2%3.7%-58.4%-68.4%168.1%40.9%270.5%-8.3%天然气民爆油服3136.8404.1钛白粉炼焦煤氯碱1927.41506.11221.51929.13692.310254.3167.0695.3476.1108726.3改性塑料农药9.2%4.2%1.62.50.01.2涤纶长丝石化-5.7%-8.1%30.6%-14.1%-13.6%-5.3%-6.3%11.2%17.4%16.1%11.1%19.5%再生98.6%-106.9%-170.0%-12.5%6.3纯碱-5.0-6.1-0.2-6.6-9.7-0.4硅化工合计资料：Wind，中信建投2026Q1：单季度业绩显著回暖

2026年一季度化工各板块业绩环比明显修复，由于油价快速上行，化工品价差拉大的同时，部分行业实现了显著的库存收益。营业收入（亿元）158.9归母净利润（亿元）23.3同比

环比（pct）

（pct)同比

环比（pct）

（pct)板块同比环比同比环比毛利率净利率氟化工17.0%6.0%15.5%1.4%-4.0%6.1%13.5%-10.2%8.3%7.4%-7.9%9.6%48.1%-15.9%65.2%-3.4%51.3%8.1%18.2%12.8%30.0%0.6%74.6%67.6%29.2%-2.4%124.7%97.3%12.1%500.3%360.4%48.5%324.7%30.0%32.0%22.6%29.5%19.7%23.7%14.2%15.6%21.8%19.2%11.4%3.4-3.95.2-0.73.12.8-1.01.30.33.03.54.90.3-1.24.01.0-0.10.9-5.1-0.3-1.64.42.33.90.62.6-1.93.92.114.6%13.0%12.1%11.8%11.6%6.7%6.4%6.4%6.1%5.8%5.6%5.3%4.9%4.6%4.4%3.5%3.4%3.0%2.9%2.7%2.6%1.0%6.9%3.1-3.43.76.64.81.50.96.03.11.25.38.61.54.35.38.14.526.52.1-0.31.49.413.52.711.53.4食品及饲料添加剂

233.230.380.8237.656.61044.838.430.330.433.452.5125.77.522.55.621.714.78.93.24.3化肥动力煤煤化工原油665.32012.5489.115591.6595.9471.0501.0572.5937.32365.0154.1486.6126.6619.8434.3298.4110.2161.7379.136.5-0.63.30.68.4%-2.3%24.7%9.5%聚氨酯磷化工农药0.7-0.40.21.1-0.8-0.32.15.25.7-5.2-0.86.96.5%9.1%轮胎19.2%11.4%-8.5%11.8%0.0%5.1%0.0%-11.7%7.8%-0.1%-6.9%10.2%24.5%0.0%10.9%-4.7%-6.5%-25.4%-1.3%11.8%-44.0%-11.6%-4.8%8.7%-1.13.53.8涤纶长丝石化189.9%228.1%

16916.9%

16.3%14.0%-10.6%

3603.8%2.1%-11.9%-42.4%33.7%-62.1%-20.4%民爆212.0%21.6%22.6%17.6%12.0%14.0%13.0%13.6%15.5%13.8%18.5%21.7%0.1炼焦煤硅化工油服-0.5-0.1-0.5-1.80.6122.3%35.1%-19.1%83.8%148.6%123.2%1.8天然气改性塑料钛白粉纯碱-2.2-2.4-0.21.1-0.8-4.32.1-4.7-0.4-0.9-1.00.9-4.7%-0.4%-25.8%0.9%氯碱9.80.31882.8-18.1%

1918.6%-38.4%14.6%再生106.7%102.2%合计27400.5资料：Wind，中信建投各板块资本开支同比增速

2025年及2026Q1化工行业资本开支整体继续收缩。相比2025年，纯碱、动力煤、化纤等行业资本开支转负进入收缩区间。维持较高资本开支增速的行业包括：氟化工、民爆、食品添加剂、磷化工等。板块2010201137.5%201224.4%20132014201511.5%2016201733.4%2018-3.8%20192020-4.9%202172.3%202257.8%202312.4%2024-0.4%20252026Q1-5.3%纯碱-13.2%111.3%56.9%2.6%-12.9%-3.6%-26.1%-4.3%139.2%4.2%-36.0%8.2%-23.6%33.0%-20.5%-12.8%-23.3%26.5%-31.4%-19.7%-59.6%21.2%-6.7%-39.7%35.5%-6.4%3.9%141.8%40.7%22.2%15.5%12.6%6.6%氟化工磷化工动力煤钛白粉化纤65.3%37.4%60.2%-25.6%145.8%96.5%11.4%-7.9%9.3%1.6%-25.6%-6.1%2.1%-17.0%-7.8%40.9%-5.0%5.3%24.5%0.5%7.8%140.8%5.2%94.2%51.0%36.3%76.2%11.1%97.4%3.7%-5.3%-17.3%23.8%-25.3%-12.8%8.1%-11.3%-0.3%153.9%10.0%-7.1%-5.0%-21.6%27.2%-21.4%-15.1%-6.1%59.0%8.0%12.4%28.9%-21.9%21.0%13.4%-16.9%-22.4%23.3%23.4%-32.1%-2.7%-19.4%20.4%14.6%13.8%5.0%-27.3%19.5%-8.4%8.3%9.2%129.5%25.4%25.6%1.5%-25.3%94.0%5.2%93.3%62.6%-23.2%23.0%-9.2%3.3%34.1%15.5%-10.2%25.6%42.4%13.9%14.8%73.3%5.3%-6.4%-5.2%2.9%187.3%25.5%47.0%6.4%-44.7%-1.5%0.6%-17.3%-13.7%1.0%化肥-3.5%-4.9%67.2%23.5%-14.8%59.5%54.3%6.9%-21.9%-25.2%-32.8%55.9%7.6%-18.2%-1.7%-1.0%原油17.4%29.6%-21.4%144.3%49.4%52.2%4.6%-14.2%-11.6%83.5%13.0%30.8%25.7%-6.8%177.5%9.0%12.5%51.8%-17.9%2.0%-4.8%油服-28.4%30.7%-58.7%-10.3%12.8%13.8%75.8%12.2%35.0%19.9%-14.9%191.7%-20.1%14.9%1.8%27.0%94.8%19.5%20.6%-17.2%84.2%16.7%40.2%67.8%11.4%31.8%19.9%104.6%-4.8%14.