高盛-上诠(3363.TWO)：用于CPO交换机的FAU受益于光通信网络迁移；首次覆盖评为买入目标价新台币864元(摘要)-20260706

2026年7月6日|11:15PMHKT用于CPO交换机的FAU受益于光通信网络迁移；首次覆盖评为买入，目标价新台币864元(摘要)3363.3363.TWO12个月目标价格:NT$864.00股价:NT$574.00上涨空间:50.5%我们认为上诠是光通信网络迁移趋势的主要受益企业，预计2025-30年净利润年均复合增速为250%，推动因素包括：(1)用于CPO交换机的光纤阵列单元(FAU)拥有更高的平均售价和毛利率、较为良性的竞争环境，而且规格升级持续（3.2T、6.4T及更先进的规格）；(2)随着AI基础设施上行周期，CPO交换机需求增长（参见我们的光通信网络专题报告）；(3)与全球领先的CPO交换机品牌制造商和芯片组供应商在早期便开展合作，支持在快速的技术迁移中计；(4)自动化生产提升了制造效率和良率；(5)大力承诺扩产以支持CPOFAU出货上量。我们首次覆盖上诠评为买入，12个月目标价为新台币864元（对应48倍2027年预期市盈率vs.2027-28年净利润同比增长1,100%）。主要争论点：市场担忧GlassBridge等新技术可能取代FAU；然而，我们认为一项技术成为主流的前提条件是在量产中承受，同时相关系统支持及供应链准备就绪。我示：(1)其他光纤和芯片连接解决方案（例如玻璃、金属等）的出现是正常现象，但FAU仍然是客户所选择的方案；(2)FAU也在不断发展，包括更多通道（向100+通道发展，而GlassBridge为24+通道，链接）、更窄间距、2D架构，以及采用耐热材料以承受回流焊过程中的高温。我们认为GlassBridge是FAU的补充而非替代，而且机架式AI服务器强劲上量及带宽快速升级将继续支持FAU需求，从而推动估值：我们的目标价基于2030年预期贴现市盈率。我们的目标市盈率倍数根据同业当前市盈率相对于未来一年每股盈利同们的目标价对应48倍2027年预期市盈率vs.2027-28年净利润同比增长1,100%。主要下行风险：市场竞争较预期更为激烈，光通信网络+852-2978-2930|allen.k.chang@+852-2978-1681|verena.jeng@YifanHu+852-2978-0996|yifan.hu@主要数据市值:NT$62.9bn/$2.0bn企业价值:NT$60.2bn/$1.9bn3个月日均成交量:NT$2.8bn/$87.4mn台湾地区大中华区科技并购概率:3租赁是否计入净负债和企业价值:Yes主营业务收入(NT$mn)EBITDA(NT$mn)每股盈利(NT$)市盈率(X)NMNM市净率(X)4.7股息收益率(%)净负债/EBITDA(X)(剔除租赁)CROCI(%)自由现金流收益率(%)4.4每股盈利(NT$)6/26E9/26E增长增长财务回报估值倍数波动性3363.TWO相对于亚洲（不含日本）覆盖范围3363.TWO相对于大中华区科技高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国FINRA的注册/合格研究分析师。评级自2026年7月6日市盈率(X)市净率(X)自由现金流收益率(%)EV/EBITDAR(X)EV/EBITDA(X)(剔除租赁)CROCI(%)净资产回报率(%)净负债/股东权益(%)净负债/权益(%)(剔除租赁)利息保障倍数(X)存货销售天数应收账款周转天数应付账款周转天数杜邦净资产回报率(%)周转率(X)杠杆比率(X)总现金投资，名义（剔除现金）(NT$)平均已动用资本(NT$)每股净资产(NT$)NMNM4.74.4主营业务收入增长率EBITDA增长率每股盈利增长每股股息增速EBIT利润率EBITDA利润率净利润率NMNM2.4 NM NMNMTaiwanTaiwanSEWeightedIndex70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,000Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26J(4.3)%35.1%109.9%363.TWO(NT$)800600400200绝对相对于TaiwanSEWeightedIndex(33.1)%(11.2)%1.7%资料来源：公司数据、高盛研究预测、FactSet（股价为2026年7月6日收盘价）损益表(NT$mn)主营业务收入主营业务成本销售、一般及管理费用研发费用其它营业收入/(费用)EBITDA折旧和摊销EBIT净利息收入/（支出）联营公司损益税前利润税项拨备少数股东损益优先股息非经常性项目前净利润税后非经常性损益非经常性项目后净利润EPS(基本,非经常性项目前)(NT$)EPS(摊薄,非经常性项目前)(NT$)EPS(基本,非经常性项目后)(NT$)EPS(摊薄,非经常性项目后)(NT$)每股股息(NT$)股息支付率(%) 22.86248.570.9115.992.292.20.840.840.840.842,897.42,402.22,474.21,954.61,954.617.8317.8317.8317.8326,212.17,764.76,908.86,987.75,485.35,485.350.0350.0350.0350.03现金及等价物应收账款存货其它流动资产流动资产固定资产净额无形资产净额投资总额其它长期资产资产合计应付账款短期债务短期租赁负债其它流动负债流动负债长期债务长期租赁负债其它长期负债长期负债负债合计优先股普通股权益少数股东损益负债及股东权益合计调整后净负债现金流量表(NT$mn)净利润折旧及摊销加回少数股东权益加回运营资本增减净额其它经营性现金流经营活动产生的现金流资本开支收购剥离其它投资活动产生的现金流偿还租赁负债支付的股息（普通股和优先股）借款增减其它融资性现金流筹资活动产生的现金流总现金流自由现金流2,207.44,117.85,868.411,512.73,157.16,645.610,046.517,209.6522.0629.42,075.63,753.486.086.086.086.0608.0715.42,161.63,839.4--------3,157.16,645.610,046.517,209.6(17.5)(164.8)124.5(57.8)(74.0)(1,755.6)3,288.91,459.42,393.3(2,145.4)0.0247.95,150.8(2,374.8)0.02,776.02026年7月6日22026年7月6日3FOCIinsixcharts图表1:FOCI’srevenueandGMtrendsGMimprovementonrisingcontributionfromCPOFAU40,00040,000NT$m35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-Others(passiveopticalcomponents)SiPh/CPOpackagingPatchcordHigh-speedFAUforCPOOpticalcomGM(RHS)20252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E60%50%40%30%20%10%0%图表3:USCSPCapextrendDataincludeMicrosoft,Amazon,Meta,AlphabetandOracle.ForMicrosoft,weusecapexincl.financiallease.InFY24,50%ofthecapexofMicrosoftwasspentonlandand50%onAI/Cloud.图表5:FOCI12MforwardP/SJan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26May-26+1stv.20.1xavg.14.6x-1stv.9.1x30252050x图表2:FOCI’sNIwaterfallchart2025-30ECPOFAUasakeydriveraheadRidingonRidingonCPOFAUshipmentsrampupSupportingthemigrationtoFAUwithhigherspeedNT$mn16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-Netincome(2025)Netincome(2026E)GP-PatchNetincome(2025)Netincome(2026E)GP-PatchcordGP-OpticalcomGP-SiPh/CPOpackagingGP-High-speedFAUGP-SwitchOpexOthersNetincome(2030E)forforCPO图表4:FOCI’sFAUshipmentstrend2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E3.2TFAUshipments6.4TFAUshipments9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000-图表6:FOCI’s40channelFAUfor3.2ToraboveCPOswitch2026年7月6日4FOCI’sproducts图表7:FOCI’sFAUinCPOswitch图表9:FOCI’s100GLR4TOSA图表图表11:FOCI’sdatacenterAOC图表8:FOCI’sfilterdevices图表10:FOCI’s100GLR4ROSA图表12:FOCI’spolarizationmaintainingfiberpatchcords2026年7月6日5FAUtogrowonrisingCPOswitchdemandTomeettheincreasingdemandforbandwidth,powerconsumption,andminiaturization,theformofopticalconnectionisevolving,suchasexpandingfromthepluggableopticalmoduletoonboardoptics(NPO)andco-packagedoptics(CPO),coveringshort-distanceconnectionswithhighbandwidthandbetterpowerefficiency.WeexpectCPOwillinitiallybeintegratedwiththeswitchASIC,followedbyXPUs(GPUs,CPUs,ASICs,etc.).图表13:HowCPOworksindatatransmission资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表14:Connectionsindatacenter:Scale-upvs.Scale-outTORSwitch:Topofrackswitch;EoRSwitch:Endofrowswitch资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年7月6日6图表15:Opticstechnologymigrations资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表16:CPOswitchspecificationcomparison资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchCo-PackagedOptics(CPO)expandsopticstocovershort-distanceconnectionsandhigherbandwidthrequirements.Itplacesopticalenginesascloseaspossibletothechips,shorteningtheelectricalpathsfromseveralcentimeterstothemillimeterlevel,loweringpowerconsumption.TheshortertransmissionpathalsoreduceslatencyandeliminatestheneedforDSPsandretimers,furtherreducingtheoverallpowerconsumptionofthesedevices.Additionally,thishigherintegrationresultsinasmallerformfactor.Ontheotherhand,CPOrequiresacomprehensivesupplychaintechnologymigrationratherthanasingle-deviceupgrade,whichcouldtaketimetodevelop.Furthermore,theco-packagingleadstohighermaintenancecosts.Forinstance,inapluggableopticalmodule,iftheopticalenginefails,onesimplyreplacestheopticalmodulewhiletheswitchsystemremainsintact.Conversely,failuresinhighly-integratedsystemshavebroaderimpacts:(1)withonboardoptics/NPO,onewouldneedtoreplacetheswitchPCB;(2)withCPOintegratedintotheswitch,afailurewouldaffecttheswitchASIC,and(3)withCPOintegratedintoaXPU,afailurewouldaffecttheentireXPU(e.g.,GPU,CPU,NPU,etc.).Moreover,thelifecyclesofPICs(PhotonicIntegratedCircuits)andEICs(ElectronicIntegratedCircuits)aredifferent,withPICsbeingmoredelicate,whichledtothe2026年7月6日7designofthepluggableopticalmodules.Asaresult,weexpectthat:(1)pluggableopticalmoduleswillco-existwithNPO/CPO,andcontinuespeedmigrationtoward3.2T;(2)CPOwillbecomemoreattractivetoclientsforshort-distanceandhigherbandwidthapplicationsthatpluggableopticalmodulecannotsupport;and(3)pluggableopticalmodulesupplierswillalsoenjoynewopticsdeviceopportunitieswithintheNPO/CPOecosystem,suchasprovidingopticalengines,FAUs,ELSmodules.图表17:CPO:KeydevelopmentofmajorplayersKeyplayersProgressProgressdetailsHighlights-CPOSwitchcommerciallyavailablein2026(Scaleout)Mar-2025:AnnouncedCPOswitch(Quantum-XInfiniBand,Spectrum-XEthernet)Early2026:CommercialavailabilityofCPOswitchAdoptMRM(MicroRingModulator)technology,achievinghigherdensityandefficiency-Davisson(102.4T)CPOswitchsamplinginOct2025(Scale-outandscale-up)Mar-2022:world'sfirst25.6TCPODemoJune-2023:51.2TCPOsamplingMar-2024:Bailly(51.2T)CPOswitchdeliveredtocustomersOct-2025:Davisson(102.4T)CPOswitchdeliveredtocustomersAdoptMZM(Mach-ZehnderModulator),whichismorematured,whilealsodevelopingMRM-CPOethernetswithsamplingin2027(Scale-out)-DevelopingCPOforXPUs(Scale-up)Feb-2026:AcquiredCelestialAI,astartupfocusingonCPOforXPUs2027:CPO(204T)EthernetswitchsamplingCPOsolutiontocombinewithcustomXPUsforCSPsAnnouncedco-developedCPOforASICin2024Mar-2024:AnnouncedOdinCPOsolutions(6.4T)collaboratingwithMediatek'sASICplatformTargetingCPOtechnologyonXPU资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表18:CPOswitchBoMbreakdown,byvalue(GSe)ASPestimatesarebasedonindustrychecks图表19:CPOswitchBoMbreakdown,by%(GSe)图表20:Technologyadoptionbycloudserviceproviders(CSPs)资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年7月6日8FAUvs.GlassBridgeTheFAUisapassiveopticalcomponentthatholdsmultipleopticalfibersinapreciselyalignedarray,typicallyusingaV-groovesubstrate.Itsfunctionsinclude:(1)high-precisionopticalcoupling:providingmicron-levelalignmentbetweenopticalfibersandtheon-chipwaveguidesofthesiliconphotonicengine,(2)polarizationmanagement:FAUsoftenadoptpolarization-maintainingfiberstoensurestableopticalperformanceandhighPolarizationExtinctionRatios(PER),and(3)high-densityinterconnect:FAUsenablehigh-densityinterconnectbyarrangingfibersataverytightpitch.图表21:FOCI’sFAsolutionforSiPhchip(1)图表22:FOCI’sFAsolutionforSiPhchip(2)CorningInc.(GLW,NotCovered)isthemajorplayerinGlassBridgeinthemarket(link),whichisawaferlevel-manufacturedfiber-to-PICtechnologydesignedasadetachableconnectorthatsupports24+opticalchannels.GlassBridgeactsbothasahigh-precisionglasscomponentandasanintegratedconnectorforfiberandopticalengine,usedinnext-generationopticalnetworkingproducts(e.g.,NPO,CPO,etc.).GlassBridgeadoptsIOX(ion-exchange)waveguides,whichareopticalpathwaysintegratedinglassthatenablehigh-precisionopticalalignmentandlow-lossperformance,fulfillingthestrictrequirementsinopticalnetworkingproductsusedinAIDC.Themarketisconcernedthatnewtechnologies(e.g.,GlassBridge)couldreplaceFAU;however,wearguethatforatechnologytobecomemainstream,itrequiresstableperformanceandaffordablecostsinmassproduction,alongwithrelatedsystemsupportandsupplychainreadiness.Oursupplychaincheckssuggest:(1)itisnormalthatothersolutions(e.g.,glass,metal)areproposedtoconnectfibersandchips,butFAUcontinuestobetheonechosenbycustomers,and(2)FAUisalsoevolving,includingmorechannels(toward100+channelsvs.24+channelsforGlassBridge,link),narrowerpitch,2Darchitecture,andheat-resistantmaterialsto2026年7月6日9withstandtheheatduringtherefiowprocess.WebelieveGlassBridgeisacomplementtoFAUratherthanareplacement,andthestrongAIserverrackramp-up,alongwithfastbandwidthupgrades,wouldcontinuetosupportFAUdemand,drivingFOCI’sgrowth.Therisingdemandforhigh-speedtransmissiondriveshighdensity,highprecision,andhighintegration,liftingtheentrybarrierforFAUs:thesizeofFAUswillnotincrease,butthenumberoffiberswillkeepdoublingwiththerisingtransmissionspeedifper-channelspeedstaysthesame.Theincreasingdensitywillraisethedifficultyinbothdesignandmanufacturing,andinCPO,theFAUcoupleswiththePICviaopticalco-packaging,withoneendconnectingwiththePIC,andtheotherendconnectingtohigh-densityfiberopticcables,furtherliftingtheentrybarrier.FOCIworkscloselywithaglobal-leadingfoundrytodevelopastandardizedplatform(IPReLFACon:refiowablelensedfiberarrayconnector).TheReLFAConisaconnectororI/O(input/output)ontheopticalengine(EICandPICpackagedtogether),connectingtheopticalengineandfiberopticcablestotransmitdatainandout.TheReLFAConcanwithstandthehightemperature(upto280degreesCelsius)duringsemiconductorpackaging,andcanconnectmultiplefibersinasmallspace.图表23:FAUandGlassBridge’sstructuresEarningsestimatesRevenues:+81%CAGRin2025-30E,drivenby:(1)ExpandingfromtelecomtoAIDCopticalnetworking:FOCIprovidesopticalcomponentstotelecomoperatorsandisexpandingtohigh-speedFAUusedintheAIDCCPOswitch,ridingonthegrowingAIinfrastructuretrendglobally,(2)CPOswitchshipmentramp-up:FOCIservesmajor2026年7月6日10CPOswitchplayersintheglobalmarket,andtherisingenddemandwoulddriveFOCI’shigh-speedFAUshipmentgrowthahead,(3)Productmigration:WemodelFOCItoenjoytheproductmigrationfrom3.2Tto6.4TFAUincomingyears,leadingtoanASPuptrend,and(4)Capacityexpansion:FOCIraisedcapitalin2026tosupportitscapacityexpansionplanforFAU,supportingthecompany’sshipmentgrowthahead.GM:Upfrom19%in2025to39%in2030EonrisingcontributionfromCPOFAUandmigrationtowardFAUwithhigherspeed,whichcarriesahigherGMthanotherproductlines.Opexratio:Improvingfrom18.7%in2025to9.1%in2030Eongrowingrevenuescaleandhigheroperationalefficiency,withR&Dexpenseata+59%CAGRtosupporttheproductspecificationupgrades.NI:+250%CAGRin2025-30E,drivenbytherisingrevenuescaleandprofitabilityimprovement.图表24:FOCIP&Lsummary(NT$m)1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q26E3Q26E4Q26E202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030ERevenue4115825083913824331,0321,0771,3641,8922,92410,64926,21232,79336,410Grossprofit711151214972572981813565753,5749,63512,42214,140Operatingexpense(77)(83)(110)(84)(163)(147)(95)(99)(272)(354)(504)(1,171)(2,726)(3,214)(3,313)Operatingincome(6)33(36)(156)(135)162199(92)1712,4026,9099,20810,826Netincome121(22)(107)(101)135165(48)921,9555,4857,2598,485EPS,diluted(NT$)0.010.160.20(0.22)(0.98)(0.92)1.231.51(0.48)0.160.8417.8350.0366.2077.38Margins/ratioGrossmargin17.2%19.8%23.8%12.4%1.9%2.7%24.9%27.7%13.3%18.8%19.7%33.6%36.8%37.9%38.8%Opexratio-18.8%-14.2%-21.7%-21.6%-42.7%-33.9%-9.2%-9.2%-20.0%-18.7%-17.2%-11.0%-10.4%-9.8%-9.1%Operatingmargin-1.6%5.6%2.2%-9.2%-40.8%-31.2%15.7%18.5%-6.7%0.1%2.4%22.6%26.4%28.1%29.7%Netmargin0.3%2.9%4.1%-5.7%-28.0%-23.4%13.1%15.3%-3.5%0.9%3.2%18.4%20.9%22.1%23.3%QoQRevenue14%41%-13%-23%-2%13%139%4%Grossprofit110%63%5%-60%-85%63%2091%16%Operatingincomenmnm-66%nmnmnmnm23%Netincomenm1420%22%nmnmnmnm22%YoYRevenue53%65%33%9%-7%-26%103%176%7%39%55%264%146%25%11%Grossprofit235%62%121%44%-90%-90%113%514%0%97%62%522%170%29%14%Operatingincomenm376%nmnmnmnm1382%nmnmnm5856%3286%188%33%18%Netincomenm-34%nmnmnmnm557%nmnmnm469%2020%181%32%17%WeexpectCCCdaystoimprovefrom63daysin2025to18daysin2030E,mainlyduetothegraduallyimprovingaccountsreceivable,inventory,andaccountspayabledaysinthecomingyears,drivenbytheCPOFAUshipmentramp-up.WeforecastROEtoincreaseto34%in2030Efrom1%in2025,mainlyonimprovingassetturnoverandnetmarginsdrivenbytherisingcontributionfromthehigh-marginCPOFAUbusiness.WebelieveFCFshouldkeepimprovinginthecomingyears,drivenbyhigheroperatingcashfiowasearningsscaleup.2026年7月6日11图表25:FOCI’sbalancesheet2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ECashandequivalentsAccountsreceivable409Othercurrentassets4,11827,533Otherlong-termass4,178Totalassets24,596-Currentliabilities4,064-------4,150Totalcommonequity20,62929,113-------20,62929,113265.53CashconversioncycAccountreceivabledays43%40%TotalliabilitiestototalassetsAssetturnoverCROCI(EDBITA/totalequity)(17)(74)(17)(74)图表26:FOCI’scashfiowstatementNT$m202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030ECashflowstatementNetincome(48)921,9555,4857,2598,485Minorityinterestadd-back-------Depreciationandamortizationadd-back4958561,1871,215(Increase)/decreaseinworkingcapital81(78)(344)(56)(1,191)(38)(6)Otheroperatingcashflowitems(77)(78)-----CashflowfromoperatingCashflowfromoperating2,3932,3935,1515,1518,4088,4089,6939,693Capitalexpenditure(182)(219)(2,130)(2,359)(1,092)(1,740)(1,312)CashflowfrominvestingOtherinvestmentcashflowCashflowfrominvesting20054(16)(16)(16)(16)(16)Dividendspaid(49) 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--Changeincommonstock473243,289----Increase/(decrease)inshort-termdebt------Increase/(decrease)inlong-termdebt-------CashflowfromfinancingOtherfinancingcashflowitemsCashflowfromfinancing30453(56)122---------Netchangeincash557(58)2482,7768,5851,4597,081FCF(112)(236)(1,814)2642,7927,0968,601RatioCapextorevenue13%12%60%20%9%4%3%2026年7月6日12ValuationandRisksWederiveour12-monthtargetpriceofNT$864basedonadiscountedP/Emethodologytocapturethecompany’slong-termgrowth,whichisconsistentwithourGreaterChinaTechcoverage.Our2030EtargetP/Emultipleof15.9xisbasedonthepeers’correlationbetweenforward-yeartradingP/Eandearningsgrowth,withFOCI’s2030-31EaveragenetincomeYoYat15%.Weapplythe15.9xtargetP/Eto2030EEPSanddiscountitbackto2027EwithaCOEof12.6%.Withapotential49%upsidetoourtargetprice,weinitiatecoverageonFOCIatBuy.OurTP-impliedPEGisat0.8x,withinthepeers’rangeof0.3x-1.2x.图表27:OurtargetP/Emultipleisderivedfrompeers’correlationbetweenP/Eandforward-yearNIYoYgrowth2027E2027EP/ETFCOpticalVPECSumitomoASETSMC0%20%40%BrowaveLandmarky=67.235x+6.0388R²=0.600760%80%100%70605040302002027-28Eavg.NIYoYEstimatesfornotcovered(NC)namesarebasedonconsensus.资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部,RefinitivEikon图表28:FOCI’s12MforwardP/SJan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26May-26+1stv.20.1xavg.14.6x-1stv.9.1x30252050x资料来源：RefinitivEikon图表29:FOCIandpeers’PEGratioCompanyFOCICompanyBrowaveLandmarkVPECTFCOpticalSumitomoASETSMCTicker3363.TWOTicker601138.SS3163.TWO3081.TWO2455.TW300394.SZ5802.TASX2330.TWRatingBuyRatingBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuy2030ETPimpliedP/E2027EtradingP/E585942522427202030-31Eavg.NIYoY2027-28Eavg.NIYoY41%63%87%47%41%0.70.6PEG0.8PEG0.3Estimatesfornotcovered(NC)namesarebasedonconsensus.资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部,RefinitivEikon2026年7月6日13图表30:FOCI’sdiscountedP/ENT$mMilestones20222023Opticalcomponents202420252026E2027EHigh-speedFAUforCPO2028E2029E2030EMigratingtohigherspeedFAU2031ERevenue1,6211,2721,3641,8922,92410,64926,21232,79336,41040,051YoY-22%39%55%264%146%25%Grossprofit2991801813565753,5749,63512,42214,14015,740Grossmargin18.4%14.1%13.3%18.8%19.7%33.6%36.8%37.9%38.8%39.3%OPEX2002382723545041,1712,7263,2143,3133,524YoY19%15%30%42%132%133%18%3%6%Opexratio12.3%18.7%20.0%18.7%17.2%11.0%10.4%9.8%9.1%8.8%Operatingprofit99-58-921712,4026,9099,20810,82612,215YoY-158%58%-101%5856%3286%188%33%18%13%Operatingmargin6%-5%-7%0%2%23%26%28%30%31%Pre-taxprofit736-57231162,4746,9889,30610,94812,337Netprofit47-48921,9555,4857,2598,4859,561EPS(Rmb,diluted)0.530.13-0.480.160.8417.8350.0366.2077.3887.20YoY-74%nana469%2020%181%32%TPimpliedP/S94332TPimpliedP/E482030EtargetP/ETargetmultiplexEPSDiscountedbackto2027;TP(NT$)Implied2027P/E15.91,23486448COEassumptionBetaRiskfreeMarketriskpremium3.5%6.5%COE12.6%图表31:FOCI’speerscomptableCompanyTickerRatingMarketcapUS$mNIYoYRevYoYOPMFOCI3363.TWO2020%264%23%26%PeersTFCOptical300394.SZ40,108423251%31%47%33%47%47%Largan3008.TW17,81543%44%Sumitomo5802.T51,60224%7%9%601138.SS189,26147%36%61%52%4%4%FabrinetNotCovered20,90847%39%40%31%CoherentCOHRNotCovered74,582392654%54%34%46%24%25%Everprox300548.SZNotCovered12,24866%53%41%Browave3163.TWONotCovered2,13745NA41%AFR300620.SZNotCovered14,89940%26%Accelink002281.SZNotCovered32,464694937%59%27%39%Average45,602613451%36%46%32%25%22%DataasofJul3,2026.Estimatesfornotcovered(NC)namesarebasedonconsensus.资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部,RefinitivEikonM&Aframework:WeassignanM&Arankof3(indicatingalowprobabilityofthecompanybeingacquired)toFOCI,givenitslongoperationalhistoryandthatitiscurrentlyinarapidgrowthstagedrivenbyitsCPOFAUbusiness,andtherefore,wedonotincludeanyM&Acomponentinourpricetarget.KeydownsiderisksnFiercer-than-expectedmarketcompetition:WeseepeersproactivelydevelopingandpromotingtheirFAUproducts,andfiercer-than-expectedmarketcompetitioncouldweighonFOCI’srevenueandearningsgrowth.nTechnologymigrationtrendinopticalnetworking:Weseefasttechnologymigrationintheopticalnetworkingmarket,andthedevelopmentofnewsolutionsthatcouldoutperformFAUcoulddragonFOCI’sgrowthgoing2026年7月6日14forward,aswemodelFAUasFOCI’skeygrowthdriver.nSlower-than-expectedcapacityrampup:FOCIisexpandingitsCPOFAUcapacitytosupportrisingenddemand.IfFOCI’scapacityexpansionpaceoryieldrateislowerthanexpected,itwouldposedownsideriskstoourforecastsforFOCI’sshipmentandrevenuegrowth.FOCIisanopticalcomponentsupplierexpandingfromtelecomtoAIDC,co-designingandprovidinghigh-speedFAUforglobal-leadingCPOswitchplayers.WearepositiveonFOCI’searningsgrowthgoingforward,drivenby(1)businessexpansionfromopticalcomponentsfortelecomoperatorstoFAU(fiberarrayunit)usedinCPOswitches,(2)increasingCPOswitchshipmentsglobally,(3)collaborationwithglobal-leadingCPOswitchplayersinFAUdesignandmanufacturing,(4)fully-automatedFAUpackagingtechnologysupportingmanufacturingefficiencyanddrivingyieldrates,(5)profitabilityimprovementdrivenbytherisingcontributionfromCPOFAU,(6)productmigrationtowardhigher-spe