当负债成本趋同银行价值如何发掘

1. 存款成本差异收窄，行业负债成本趋同趋势初显2297轮挂牌利率调整后，国有大行1年期和3年期定存挂牌利率较22年初下行80BP/150BP0.95%/1.25%20251.43%/1.61%/1.84%/1.67%202136BP202150BP29BP1.5%-1.6%1.6%资产负债利率匹配仍是银行经营的核心命题，存款成本差异有望延续收敛图1：2022年以来五大行（工农中建交）存款挂牌利率调整情况挂牌价利率（） 调整幅度（pct）15-1022-0923-0623-0923-1224-0724-1025-0522-0923-0623-0923-1224-0724-1025-05累计一、城乡居民及单位存款(一)活期(二)定期整存整取三个月半年一年二年三年五年零存整取、整存零取、存本取息一年三年五年定活两便二、协定存款三、通知存款一天七天资料来源：公司官网，

0.300.250.200.200.200.150.100.051.351.251.251.251.151.050.800.651.551.451.451.451.351.251.000.851.751.651.651.551.451.351.100.952.252.152.051.851.651.451.201.052.752.602.452.201.951.751.501.252.752.652.502.252.001.801.551.301.351.251.251.251.151.050.800.651.551.451.451.451.351.251.000.851.551.451.451.451.351.251.000.85按一年以内定期整存整取同档次利率打6折1.000.900.900.900.700.600.200.100.550.450.450.450.250.150.100.101.101.001.001.000.800.700.450.30

-0.05-0.050.000.00-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.25-0.100.000.00-0.10-0.10-0.25-0.15-0.70-0.100.000.00-0.10-0.10-0.25-0.15-0.70-0.100.00-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.25-0.15-0.80-0.10-0.10-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.25-0.15-1.20-0.15-0.15-0.25-0.25-0.20-0.25-0.25-1.50-0.10-0.15-0.25-0.25-0.20-0.25-0.25-1.45-0.100.000.00-0.10-0.10-0.25-0.15-0.70-0.100.000.00-0.10-0.10-0.25-0.15-0.70-0.100.000.00-0.10-0.10-0.25-0.15-0.70-0.100.000.00-0.20-0.10-0.40-0.10-0.90-0.100.000.00-0.20-0.10-0.050.00-0.45-0.100.000.00-0.20-0.10-0.25-0.15-0.80计息负债成本率存款成本率21年 22年 23年 24年 25年 YOY（BP）21年 22计息负债成本率存款成本率21年 22年 23年 24年 25年 YOY（BP）21年 22年 23年 24年 25年 YOY（BP）工商银行建设银行中国银行农业银行交通银行邮储银行1.641.82 2.04 1.94 1.771.85 1.95 1.85 1.631.75 2.18 2.12 1.741.84 1.96 1.85 2.172.26 2.45 2.26 1.651.63 1.57 1.47 -411.621.75 1.89 1.72 1.671.73 1.77 1.65 1.521.65 2.09 1.99 1.611.70 1.78 1.63 2.102.19 2.33 2.12 1.631.61 1.53 1.44 -36-35-33-37-35-32-29-42-38-28-29招商银行中信银行民生银行兴业银行浦发银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行1.591.61 1.73 1.64 2.252.19 2.20 2.02 2.402.40 2.43 2.27 2.292.31 2.34 2.17 2.292.24 2.33 2.20 2.352.33 2.39 2.28 2.262.21 2.25 2.15 2.212.16 2.27 2.14 2.542.35 2.35 2.25 -381.411.52 1.62 1.54 2.002.06 2.12 1.89 2.182.29 2.31 2.14 2.222.26 2.24 1.98 2.012.10 2.16 1.97 2.222.30 2.32 2.18 1.902.03 2.06 1.96 2.042.09 2.20 2.07 2.472.29 2.24 2.10 -37-37-41-46-40-43-33-46-38-37-39-42-36-47-42-40-32北京银行南京银行宁波银行上海银行江苏银行杭州银行长沙银行成都银行贵阳银行郑州银行青岛银行西安银行苏州银行重庆银行厦门银行齐鲁银行兰州银行2.272.14 2.15 2.03 2.432.39 2.49 2.36 2.132.05 2.15 2.06 2.232.17 2.21 2.06 2.532.42 2.40 2.19 2.392.32 2.28 2.13 2.372.28 2.20 2.01 2.172.24 2.29 2.22 2.902.61 2.57 2.46 2.702.47 2.38 2.24 2.382.37 2.32 2.18 2.672.63 2.65 2.59 2.392.30 2.28 2.18 2.942.85 2.74 2.58 2.632.47 2.50 2.43 2.372.24 2.18 2.06 3.042.96 2.81 2.44 -391.972.02 1.97 1.85 2.352.37 2.45 2.34 1.831.77 2.01 1.94 2.072.12 2.08 1.92 2.322.34 2.33 2.10 2.212.26 2.19 2.04 2.092.12 2.02 1.84 1.982.15 2.23 2.16 2.792.57 2.55 2.45 2.492.37 2.25 2.17 2.092.21 2.23 2.08 2.652.66 2.72 2.65 2.252.22 2.21 2.09 2.852.88 2.79 2.59 2.632.50 2.47 2.38 2.242.17 2.11 1.99 3.113.09 2.90 2.47 -33-37-30-38-33-40-40-39-38-38-37-32-28-31-26-40-32-27-18-37-33-51-51-34-33-40-40-37-38-37-36-34-31渝农商行青农商行紫金银行常熟银行无锡银行江阴银行苏农银行张家港行瑞丰银行沪农商行2.262.13 2.03 1.86 2.272.22 2.17 2.04 2.292.26 2.27 2.14 2.302.30 2.30 2.23 2.342.30 2.29 2.11 2.302.18 2.07 1.89 1.972.01 2.04 1.94 2.512.48 2.48 2.16 2.272.29 2.28 2.20 2.182.09 2.05 1.91 -311.981.97 1.88 1.73 2.022.09 2.04 1.92 2.112.24 2.26 2.10 2.272.31 2.28 2.20 2.342.30 2.29 2.11 2.242.13 2.02 1.85 1.972.01 2.04 1.94 2.332.35 2.33 2.13 2.272.29 2.28 2.20 2.062.01 1.95 1.78 -28-34-33-30-29-33-32-34-32-34-33-27-27-37-37-39-37-33-31上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行2.292.24 2.26 2.13 1.771.86 2.03 1.92 2.242.20 2.25 2.12 2.502.41 2.39 2.25 2.272.23 2.20 2.05 -372.152.17 2.18 2.03 1.691.77 1.90 1.76 2.052.10 2.14 1.98 2.352.34 2.32 2.18 2.162.17 2.14 2.00 -34-36-33-42-37-37-34-33-32资料来源：公司财报，资产端收益率弹性趋弱，银行利差分化同步收敛20252.95%1LPR2Q124回升8P至3.23，贷款利率对公贷款利率21年 贷款利率对公贷款利率21年 22年 23年 24年 25年YOY（BP）21年 22年 23年 24年 25年YOY（BP）工商银行建设银行中国银行农业银行交通银行邮储银行4.164.05 3.81 3.40 2.814.254.17 3.82 3.43 2.843.833.90 3.97 3.56 2.964.234.09 3.79 3.41 2.884.334.21 3.95 3.61 3.034.684.48 4.13 3.78 3.17-59-59-604.083.86 3.57 3.26 2.813.993.91 3.48 3.21 2.764.083.86 3.48 3.14 2.724.093.92 3.64 3.34 2.884.044.00 3.84 3.55 3.084.013.84 3.62 3.47 3.06-45-45-42-46-47-53-58-61-41招商银行中信银行民生银行兴业银行浦发银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行4.674.54 4.26 3.91 3.344.994.81 4.56 4.24 3.674.964.53 4.32 3.95 3.425.034.81 4.57 4.20 3.594.694.55 4.26 3.88 3.355.114.98 4.75 4.22 3.605.134.85 4.74 4.38 3.886.235.90 5.43 4.54 3.875.365.12 4.87 4.45 3.78-57-573.843.85 3.75 3.40 2.814.564.48 4.43 4.12 3.544.393.93 3.88 3.59 3.044.334.25 4.21 3.96 3.493.843.91 3.85 3.61 3.154.364.32 4.19 3.85 3.294.804.43 4.19 3.80 3.374.023.90 4.00 3.56 3.054.824.65 4.72 4.35 3.76-59-58-53-55-61-47-46-53-62-56-50-43-67-67-51-59北京银行南京银行宁波银行上海银行江苏银行杭州银行长沙银行成都银行贵阳银行郑州银行青岛银行西安银行苏州银行重庆银行厦门银行齐鲁银行兰州银行4.554.36 4.19 3.94 3.335.425.24 5.07 4.80 4.485.755.34 5.13 4.84 4.234.724.44 4.27 3.76 3.195.365.36 5.18 4.77 4.275.114.96 4.60 4.25 3.656.026.01 5.76 5.26 4.505.034.93 4.61 4.36 3.965.735.40 5.34 4.96 4.455.475.18 4.74 4.17 3.945.084.98 4.85 4.61 4.145.385.02 4.84 4.76 4.764.894.70 4.29 3.90 3.515.545.09 4.74 4.39 4.275.054.74 4.36 4.06 3.635.265.04 4.67 4.25 3.875.885.67 5.20 4.63 4.28-614.253.76 3.47 3.36 2.974.864.60 4.43 4.23 3.924.844.44 4.39 4.29 3.944.414.23 4.09 3.55 3.17- - - - -- - - - -5.65 - 5.29 4.97 5.064.95 4.70 4.52 4.165.925.51 5.48 5.21 4.665.815.51 5.16 4.51 4.605.085.04 5.00 4.75 4.334.904.89 4.78 4.82 4.994.574.36 4.03 3.75 3.47- 5.40 5.24 4.70 4.52- - - - -5.12 4.87 4.58 4.21 6.035.76 5.20 4.66 4.46-39-32-31-61-35-38-57-50---60-76-68-40-36-51-55-239-47-42-17-39-28-12-18-43--38-35-28-20渝农商行青农商行紫金银行常熟银行无锡银行江阴银行苏农银行张家港行瑞丰银行沪农商行5.204.82 4.37 3.92 3.645.265.04 4.65 4.32 3.924.714.53 4.22 3.80 3.166.246.09 5.81 5.63 5.184.784.63 4.42 4.06 3.575.114.98 4.47 3.91 3.575.084.77 4.30 3.87 3.375.875.63 5.18 4.38 3.605.645.42 4.73 4.23 3.714.654.53 4.24 3.77 3.18-284.934.68 4.45 4.15 3.875.315.21 4.83 4.66 4.324.834.78 4.28 3.94 3.464.924.84 4.76 4.44 4.084.684.44 4.27 3.96 3.53- - - - -4.94 4.55 4.11 3.73 - - - - -4.70 4.53 4.63 4.26 4.764.62 4.15 3.70 3.13-28-40-34-64-48-45-36-49-43-34--50-50-78--52-54-59-57上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行5.114.90 4.61 4.20 3.704.254.15 3.91 3.53 2.955.134.90 4.64 4.20 3.615.315.09 4.81 4.45 4.035.255.04 4.64 4.19 3.69-504.694.50 4.33 4.02 3.614.053.90 3.61 3.33 2.894.334.19 4.14 3.80 3.285.124.87 4.70 4.40 4.104.884.71 4.44 4.11 3.67-41-44-58-59-53-43-29-50-44资料来源：公司财报，注：部分银行未公布对公贷款收益率数据，以“-”替代0242595.1%251.0%图4：银行业规模扩张速度放缓 图5：居民端加杠杆意愿相对较弱贷款增量占比 2020/122021/122022/122023/122024/122025/122026/05商业银行总资产YOY（%） 贷款YOY（贷款增量占比 2020/122021/122022/122023/122024/122025/122026/05个人贷款40.1%39.7%个人贷款40.1%39.7%18.0%21.9%15.1%2.7%-6.9%消费贷28.5%26.7%5.4%8.1%4.1%-3.2%-12.3%短期消费贷 -5.8% 2.9% 0.0% 4.3% -0.9% -4.3% -7.7%中长期消费贷34.4%23.8%5.4%3.8%5.0%1.1% 个人经营贷款11.5%13.0%12.6%13.8%11.0%5.9%5.4%17%15%13%11%短期经营贷6.1%6.2%5.1%5.5%3.6% -0.5%0.1%9%中长期经营贷企业贷款 5.4%62.0% 6.8%60.2% 7.5%80.1% 8.3%75.8% 7.5%79.1% 6.4%95.1%短期贷款12.2%短期贷款12.2%4.7%14.5%16.4%14.4%29.5%41.4%中长期贷款44.8%46.4%51.6%57.7%55.7%54.3%54.8%票据融资3.8%7.5%13.9%1.4%8.7%10.2%7.7%15-0515-1115-0515-1116-0516-1117-0517-1118-0518-1119-0519-1120-0520-1121-0521-1122-0522-1123-0523-1124-0524-1125-0525-1126-05资料来源：Wind， 资料来源：Wind，25年信贷增速25年存量贷款结构25年信贷增速25年存量贷款结构对公YOY零售YOY25年信贷增速25年存量贷款结构25年信贷增速25年存量贷款结构对公YOY零售YOY对公占比零售占比对公YOY零售YOY对公占比零售占比7.88.50.561.829.526.1-2.167.326.72.059.433.034.214.28.580.017.59.55.157.24.36.768.423.611.10.065.629.217.6-1.266.630.68.63.066.231.122.5-5.5-5.974.718.617.11.544.350.234.771.524.912.313.212.92.144.351.326.4-8.873.222.40.256.240.435.8-6.468.227.12.162.933.820.5-9.475.620.46.7-5.259.337.930.9-0.9-1.877.518.38.6-3.462.832.33.566.022.25.7-1.161.036.812.8-2.171.513.912.8-3.2-2.3-3.068.927.210.31.638.753.59.245.850.912.9-0.273.215.46.669.624.39.41.264.921.210.7-0.961.730.013.10.555.629.217.14.672.123.59.8-18.768.117.330.5-4.261.930.828.15.81.564.328.30.1-2.259.67.5-1.261.027.35.19.183.215.621.52.954.653.137.825.1-1.369.628.214.52.940.8股份行城商行农商行9.510.12.060.032.9/-0.8-1.357.338.917.967.826.112.10.358.860.030.910.41.033.6资料来源：公司财报，净利差差异趋于稳定，部分优质区域成农商行对公业务利差优势明显。势拉开盈利分化的难度或进一步上升。2020业的重要因素。净息差净利差对公贷款收益率-存款成本率23年净息差净利差对公贷款收益率-存款成本率23年24年25年YOY（BP）23年24年25年YOY（BP）23年24年25年YOY（BP）工商银行建设银行中国银行农业银行交通银行邮储银行1.611.701.591.601.282.011.421.511.401.421.271.871.281.341.261.281.201.66-141.411.502.341.451.141.991.231.332.181.271.111.851.151.202.071.161.081.65-81.321.361.021.491.292.001.281.260.971.351.241.87-4-17-10-5-11-14-7-3-5-21-20-13招商银行中信银行民生银行兴业银行浦发银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行2.151.781.461.931.521.741.822.382.011.981.771.391.821.421.541.591.871.711.871.631.401.711.421.401.561.781.60-112.031.751.371.661.491.681.772.311.811.861.711.281.561.371.451.611.831.521.781.601.311.501.371.321.631.761.46-81.762.101.321.791.411.571.651.422.101.551.931.231.751.411.401.641.381.91-21-14-11-1713-9-11-6-4----14-13-17-32-1-4-9-7-6-19北京银行南京银行宁波银行上海银行江苏银行杭州银行长沙银行成都银行贵阳银行郑州银行青岛银行西安银行苏州银行重庆银行厦门银行齐鲁银行兰州银行1.542.041.881.341.981.502.311.812.112.081.831.371.681.521.281.741.461.471.941.861.171.861.412.111.661.751.721.731.361.381.351.131.511.431.271.821.741.161.731.361.851.591.581.611.661.851.331.391.091.531.37-1.531.732.011.411.951.592.431.731.962.001.851.311.731.391.201.661.491.471.641.911.221.861.512.201.621.731.631.761.291.451.221.071.441.421.261.601.761.161.711.361.951.551.611.541.681.781.331.351.071.471.33-211.331.872.231.49--2.962.302.752.272.572.231.572.12-2.152.221.331.932.261.51--2.602.252.602.632.522.911.632.34-2.242.36--4632-15-1-6-------26-25--36-7-7-5-17-12-15-7-9-836-5494968-5-12641322--3-29-6-914渝农商行青农商行紫金银行常熟银行无锡银行江阴银行苏农银行张家港行瑞丰银行沪农商行1.731.761.592.861.642.061.741.991.731.671.611.671.422.711.511.761.551.621.501.501.601.601.132.531.351.601.411.391.501.37-11.641.771.412.701.391.851.531.741.671.611.511.671.232.541.271.551.351.401.381.451.511.590.972.381.161.441.241.201.381.33-2.292.621.802.211.85-1.79-2.061.792.322.621.622.181.76-1.56-1.891.553--7-8-29-26-18-18-16-3-16-11-9----142.07%-23--20----2.35%-17-13-122.10%-24上市银行国有大行股份行城商行农商行1.781.631.871.731.881.611.481.681.581.691.521.341.601.531.55-91.711.641.761.701.731.551.501.581.561.541.471.381.531.501.42-82.081.581.882.322.261.891.411.682.152.051.861.331.582.221.94-3-15-11-8-8-5-5-58-14-12-11资料来源：公司财报，注：部分银行未公布对公贷款收益率数据，以“-”替代负手规模为锚，扩表寻求新平衡经营底盘仍需规模支撑。尽管弱需求环境下银行业整体规模增速有所降档，但规模增长仍是银行收入扩张、客户沉淀和风险分散的基础支撑。在“低息差”从信贷端来看，20263///8.0%3.8%8.8%6.2%图8：各地区信贷增速变化 图9：各类型银行贷款增长持续分化贷款余额万亿，2026-04） 贷款同增速309.6%309.6%9.3%9.4%25..%8.5%7.6%10%8.0%8%206.0%6.4%154.3%4.9%6%3.4%4.0%102.8%4%52%00%

贷款同增长 国有大行 股份城商行 农商行5广江浙山北四上河湖安河福湖江重东苏江东京川海北北徽南建南西庆资料来源：Wind，

0 资料来源：Wind，2026Q1韧性凸显，例如宁波银行26Q1资产和信贷同比13.6%/15.7%26Q1上市银行总资产同比 环比25Q4 26Q1 26Q1贷款及垫款同比 环比25Q4 26Q1 上市银行总资产同比 环比25Q4 26Q1 26Q1贷款及垫款同比 环比25Q4 26Q1 26Q1投资类资产同比 环比25Q4 26Q1 26Q1同业资产同比 环比25Q4 26Q1 26Q1邮储银行9.512.512.89.44.39.38.24.310.13.37.57.59.08.76.68.26.63.719.520.717.915.54.85.918.25.76.4-26.128.83.92.7-9.556.6-23.315.77.14.221.421.8-6.6-14.9-14.913.94.68.58.25.05.028.119.423.619.910.03.24.214.73.83.86.44.75.93.55.12.522.710.34.48.35.013.78.1-14.9浙商银行7.66.36.60.25.63.08.32.74.77.63.25.42.55.8-0.43.71.28.50.53.54.82.812.611.75.41.12.87.44.17.4-0.412.54.74.17.313.19.17.244.3-11.971.110.423.614.1-1.63.91.12.32.32.22.211.211.7-12.7-22.97.92.24.51.63.24.20.60.80.20.1-0.8-3.9-15.66.11.75.83.5-8.3-8.283.229.2-0.40.5-1.31.92.82.1-0.8-0.91.17.93.011.87.81.114.3-38.54.41.81.52.221.35.3-12.4-13.57.86.66.55.20.76.030.118.0兰州银行17.016.616.12.55.412.024.811.910.010.618.112.013.811.116.720.79.010.70.28.613.417.42.53.914.317.815.85.812.216.525.612.018.413.620.73.63.40.822.021.316.92.52.46.426.312.616.47.221.1-5.118.72.117.515.914.410.0-1.264.825.314.9-2.989.837.664.5-6.043.633.578.820.9-1.811.188.656.416.779.466.81.216.06.16.414.07.717.016.32.128.213.615.79.44.5-19.2-20.83.33.02.13.01.82.9-2.9-2.320.63.23.03.71.31.16.029.83.29.615.97.67.35.1-22.1-31.925.213.218.98.925.814.567.527.410.55.510.95.410.84.07.41.98.714.73.30.815.18.394.646.18.63.710.05.85.74.11.429.3-3.017.02.416.829.88.8-4.8-42.65.21.610.4-0.81.75.511.7-2.318.28.913.710.531.17.1-14.9-4.013.23.523.06.51.3-2.511.710.717.34.515.915.18.217.93.584.099.7-3.418.97.22.52.4-2.041.29.61.90.23.515.8-1.032.7-0.1瑞丰银行9.310.09.57.93.87.61.66.710.09.59.37.87.43.94.18.96.47.77.88.03.24.62.411.67.88.77.98.85.75.15.55.85.113.310.24.7-6.616.5-0.66.12.55.75.41.329.830.129.041.812.335.1-0.838.233.470.047.511.19.68.7-10.111.41.45.5-2.911.7-5.18.03.810.80.20.426.33.57.75.88.25.32.72.347.089.35.31.63.91.94.02.4-11.3-4.2309.515.3-0.51.2-6.1-2.9-17.1-8.2-7.25.72.54.24.04.14.62.818.69.710.46.011.510.112.3-2.0-10.74.86.53.28.46.8109.829.7国有大行股份行城商行农商行上市银行10.45.214.67