渝农商行利润增速环比回升资产质量延续改善

图5：渝农商行单季度利润总额同比增速利润总额单季度额同比增速100.00%80.92%60.78%27.85%60.78%27.85%21.64%16.96%7.98%11.86%12.00%11.03%0.96%1.71%3.82%-9.17%-19.86%-27.64%60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%2022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q42026Q12026Q2数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图6：渝农商行单季度归母净利润同比增速30.00%

归母净利润单季度额同比增速27.88%26.34%27.88%26.34%27.16%19.09%9.18%9.96%6.25%7.06%5.07%3.70%3.14%-5.14%-0.65%-8.34%-10.81%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%2022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q42026Q12026Q2数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图7：渝农商行加权平均净资产收益率ROE（加权年化，%）14.0012.0010.00

12.01

11.95 12.008.006.004.002.000.00数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图8：渝农商行总资产同比增速总资产同比增速12.00%9.95%9.37%9.95%9.37%9.31%9.69% 9.708.80%8.00% 7.96%6.79%6.32%6.60%4.97%4.84%5.13%4.13%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%图9：渝农商行贷款总额同比增速贷款总额同比增速14.00%12.00%

11.62%11.51%10.00%8.00%6.00%

9.33%

5.32% 4.86% 4.92%

8.26%4.00%2.00%0.00%数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图10：渝农商行存款总额同比增速存款总额同比增速12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%

8.51%

9.69% 9.97%

8.85% 8.87%

6.96%2.00%0.00%图11：渝农商行不良贷款率不良贷款率（%）1.251.20

1.21

1.19 1.19

1.17 01.05

1.08

1.051.000.95数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图12：渝农商行拨备覆盖率370.00365.00360.00355.00350.00

拨备覆盖率366.70 367.54360.29

363.44

367.26

357.47345.00340.00数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心附表：渝农商行盈利预测表（每股指标单位：元/股，其他指标单位：百万元） 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E 2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E价值评估（倍）利润表P/E6.886.495.865.234.74净利息收入22,49424,26127,07430,50133,748P/B0.620.590.550.510.47利息收入47,08846,46549,12353,34257,898P/PPOP4.114.033.623.303.01利息支出24,59322,20522,05022,84124,150每股指标净手续费收入1,6121,2941,3531,4071,449EPS0.991.051.161.301.44净其他非息收入4,1553,0933,0932,8462,846BVPS11.0711.5512.4213.4014.47营业收入28,26128,64831,52034,75438,043PPOPPS1.661.691.882.062.26营业支出15,33314,82216,22317,73519,305DPS0.300.320.360.400.44税金及附加308393414423455股息支付率30.68%30.65%30.65%30.65%30.65%业务及管理费9,0058,9439,61310,77411,793股息收益率4.47%4.71%5.23%5.86%6.47%营业利润12,92913,82615,29717,01918,737驱动性因素营业外净收入-111-117-117-117-117贷款增长5.55%11.62%10.00%10.00%9.00%拨备前利润18,83819,19521,37523,44025,677存款增长5.10%9.21%9.10%9.00%9.00%资产减值损失6,0205,4866,1956,5387,057生息资产增长5.13%9.62%12.52%10.75%9.11%利润总额12,81713,70915,18016,90218,620计息负债增长4.61%10.37%12.15%10.76%9.29%所得税1,0281,2891,4271,5551,732平均贷款收益率3.95%3.64%3.45%3.38%3.33%净利润11,78912,42013,75315,34716,889平均生息资产收益率3.16%2.91%2.76%2.69%2.66%归母净利润11,51312,12813,44715,02516,551平均存款付息率1.74%1.48%1.32%1.22%1.15%资产负债表平均计息负债付息率1.86%1.56%1.39%1.29%1.24%贷款总额714,273797,287877,016964,7171,051,542净息差(NIM)-测算1.51%1.52%1.52%1.54%1.55%贷款减值准备30,60131,54530,95530,75831,796净利差(Spread)-测算0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%贷款净额683,831765,893846,061933,9591,019,746净手续费收入增速-10.00%-19.70%4.50%4.00%3.00%投资类资产628,003643,629740,173828,994903,603净非息收入/营收20.41%15.32%14.11%12.24%11.29%存放央行51,20455,09161,72967,28473,340成本收入比31.86%31.22%30.50%31.00%31.00%同业资产132,411176,638203,134223,447245,792拨备支出/平均贷款0.87%0.73%0.74%0.71%0.70%其他资产19,49324,49424,11526,64629,086实际所得税率8.02%9.41%9.40%9.20%9.30%生息资产1,525,8911,672,6441,882,0512,084,4432,274,277业绩年增长率资产合计1,514,9421,665,7441,854,9762,049,6742,237,411净利息收入-4.25%7.85%11.60%12.66%10.65%存款941,9461,028,7281,122,3421,223,3521,333,454净手续费收入-10.00%-19.70%4.50%4.00%3.00%向央行借款103,008105,968105,968105,968105,968营业收入1.09%1.37%10.02%10.26%9.46%同业负债136,535170,264229,856287,321330,419营业支出-2.39%-3.33%9.45%9.32%8.86%发行债券171,658188,485216,758238,434257,509拨备前利润3.86%1.90%11.36%9.66%9.54%计息负债1,353,1471,493,4451,674,9241,855,0752,027,350利润总额5.10%6.96%10.73%11.34%10.17%负债合计1,381,3331,526,4481,705,6261,889,0792,064,511净利润5.97%5.35%10.73%11.59%10.05%股东权益合计133,609139,296149,350160,596172,900归母净利润5.60%5.35%10.87%11.74%10.15%资产质量盈利能力不良贷款余额8,4208,5898,9799,2619,994ROAA0.80%0.78%0.78%0.79%0.79%不良贷款率1.18%1.08%1.02%0.96%0.95%ROAE9.28%9.18%9.71%10.08%10.31%不良净生成率0.91%0.95%0.90%0.80%0.70%RORWA1.35%1.29%1.25%1.24%1.22%拨备覆盖率363%367%345%332%318%资本状况拨贷比4.28%3.96%3.53%3.19%3.02%资本充足率16.12%14.46%13.81%13.35%13.03%流动性一级资本充足率14.93%13.27%12.60%12.11%11.76%存贷比75.83%77.50%78.14%78.86%78.86%核心一级资本充足率14.24%12.67%12.07%11.64%11.33%贷款/总资产47.15%47.86%47.28%47.07%47.00%加权风险资产888,0531,034,8111,169,3361,309,6561,453,719投资类资产/总资产41.45%38.64%39.90%40.45%40.39%风险加权系数58.62%62.12%63.04%63.90%64.97%同业资产/总资产8.74%10.60%10.95%10.90%10.99%广发银行业研究小组刘婉琴：银行研究员，北京大学经济学硕士，2025年7月加入广发证券发展研究中心。分析师及联系人倪军 张晓辉 王宇SAC执证号：S0260518020004nijun@

SAC执证号：S0260526040001SFCCENo.BYA783bjzhangxiaohui@

SAC执证号：S0260526060007yfwangyu@请注意，倪军,王宇并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。广发证券行业投资评级说明

1210%12-10%～+10%。1210%广发证券公司投资评级说明

买入：预期未来12个月内，股价表现强于大盘15%以上。增持：预期未来12个月内，股价表现强于大盘5%-15%。持有：预期未来12个月内，股价相对大盘的变动幅度介于-5%～+5%。卖出：预期未来12个月内，股价表现弱于大盘5%以上。联系我们地址邮政编码客服邮箱广州市：广州市天河区马场路26号广发证券大厦47楼510627gfzqyf@深圳市：深圳市福田区益田路6001号太平金融大厦31层518026北京市：北京市西城区月坛北街2号月坛大厦18层100045上海市：上海市浦东新区南泉北路429号泰康保险大厦37楼香港：香港湾仔骆克道81号广发大厦27楼200120-法律主体声明的具有相关合法合规经营资质的子公司/经营机构完成。广发证券股份有限公司具备中国证监会批复的证券投资咨询业务资格，接受中国证监会监管，负责本报告于中国（港澳台地区除外）的分销。广发证券（香港）经纪有限公司具备香港证监会批复的就证券提供意见（4号牌照）的牌照，接受香港证监会监管，负责本报告于中国香港地区的分销。本报告署名研究人员所持中国证券业协会注册分析师资质信息和香港证监会批复的牌照信息已于署名研究人员姓名处披露。重要声明影响。投资者不应仅依据本报告内容作出任何投资决策。投资者应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险，任何形式的分享证券投资收益或者分担证券投资损失的书面或者口头承诺均为无效。（相关公司或证券的所有个人观点，并不代表广发证券的立场；（2）研究人员的部分或全部的报酬无论在过去、现在还是将来均不会与本报告所述特定分析结论、研究观点具有直接或间接的联系。研究人员制作本报告的报酬标准依据研究质量、客户评价、工作量等多种因素确定，其影响因素亦包括广发证券的整体经营收入，该等经营收入部分来源于广发证券的投资银行类业务。本