mckinsey -人工智能将如何重塑保险行业的经济格局：首席执行官战略指南 How AI will reshape the economics of insurance A CEOs guide to strategy 2026

July2026

InsurancePractice

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:

ACEO’sguidetostrategy

AIcouldupendtheindustry’slong-standingstructuresanddynamics.

Competitiveadvantagewillaccruetocarriers,distributors,andtechprovidersthatpreparenow.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyJasonRalph,Johannes-TobiasLorenz,NickMilinkovich,SidKamath,andTanguyCatlin,withGabriellaMeijer,representingviewsfromMcKinsey’sInsurancePracticeandQuantumBlack,AIbyMcKinsey.

Overthepasttwodecades,theglobalinsuranceindustryhasbeentreadingwater.Insurers

havedeliveredsteadygrowthinpremiums,butoperatingleveragehaserodedacrosspropertyandcasualty(P&C),life,andhealth(Exhibit1).Grosswrittenpremiumshaveexpandedatroughly

4.9percentannuallysince2005,reachinganestimated$8.3trillionin2025,yetprofitsbeforetaxesgrewonlyapproximately4.3percentoverthesameperiod,reachingapproximately$580billion.

1

Risingcapitalrequirementshavebeenafactorinthisunderperformance.

Exhibit1

Insuranceprofitshavegrownmoreslowlythanpremiumssince2005.Changeinglobalprofitsandpremiums2005–25,

1

%CAGR

Profitsbeforetaxes

Grossdirectdomesticpremiumswritten

4.3

4.9

–0.6

1

Globally,thegapbetweenprofitsandrevenuesismorepronouncedinlifeandhealth(1.1percentagepoint)thanpropertyandcasualty(0.1).Healthincludes

accidentandhealthfromlifefilersandinsurancecontractslinkedtoprivatemedicalcovers.Itcanincludecompensationofmedicalexpensesand/orprovisionofhealthassistanceservicesand/orcompensationforthelossofpurchasingpowerduetoworkactivityinterruptionduringtheillness.

Source:McKinseyGlobalInsurancePools

McKinsey&Company

Further,theindustryhasprovedresistanttodisruption.Majoreconomicforcesthat

fundamentallyrestructuredotherindustries—globalization,digitalization,theriseofplatform

economics—testedtheindustry’sedgesbutdidnotalteritseconomicarchitecture.Competitivepositionsshiftedonlygradually.Capitalflowedslowlyacrossgeographiesandlinesofbusiness.Publicmarketscontinuedtotreatinsuranceasastablesourceofearningsgenerationwith

limitedsusceptibilitytostructuraldisruption.Privatecapitalinnovatedinbalancesheetandinvestmentmanagement,buthasnottouchedmostotherpartsofthebusiness.Insurancein2026wouldbehighlyrecognizabletofarsightedexecutivesin2006.

1McKinseyGlobalInsurancePools.

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy2

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy3

Thisstasishasn’tbeenallbad.Theindustryconsistentlyleadsothersectorsindividendsandsharebuybacks.Ithascontinuedtoplayavitalroleintheglobaleconomyandsociety,most

recentlyintheglobalpandemic.Butitisexperiencingnewpressures.Artificialintelligencehasthepotentialtoreshapefourcoreindustrydynamicsthathavemarkedtheindustry’srelative

stagnationforthepasttwodecades:

—Lagginggrowthandrelevance.Insurance’sshareofeconomicopportunityhasnotkeptpacewiththegrowthinunderlyingrisk.Inthepastdecade,revenuesgrewmoreslowly(1.24x)thanmostmajorindustriesandevenglobalGDP(1.58x).Theglobalprotectiongapfornatural

catastrophesalonereached$133billionin2025.

2

Andlessthan1percentofglobalcybercostsarecurrentlyinsured,agapofroughly$900billion.

3

—Highdistributioncosts.Commissionsandacquisitionexpensesconsumebetweentenand

20centsofeverypremiumdollarinP&C—andupto80centsofthefirst-yearpremiuminlife.Thecoststructurehaschangedlittledespiterepeatedwavesofdigitalinvestment.

—Flatproductivity.Expenseratioshaveremainedlargelystagnantfortwodecades.The

averageP&Cexpenseratiohashoveredbetween27and32percentsince2005,withleadersbelow22percentandlaggardsat32percent,agapthattechnologyhasonlywidened.

—Slowpaceofchange.Whiletheindustryhasbeguntomovefaster,ithashistoricallylaggedbehindothersectorsinadoptingtechnologyandinnovation.

Thisarticleexploreseachoftheseinturnandoutlineshowactorsacrossthelife,commercial

lines,andpersonallinesinsurancevaluechainscanmovepastAImodels(wheneverycompanyusesthesamemodels,noonehasanadvantage)andusethenewtechtobuildcompetitive

moats.Wedonotofferaroadmap;thepaceandsequenceofchangearetoouncertain.Whatweofferisacompass:aperspectiveonthedirectioninwhicheachoftheseforcesismoving,andasetofno-regretsmovesthatbuildcompetitiveadvantageregardlessofhowthetimingplaysout.

Theactorsbestpositionedwillbethosewiththeclearestthesisonthedirectionofchange

andthenimbleststrategyroom—likeasailboatthattacksfrequently,stayingclosesttothe

optimalpointofsailevenwhenthedestinationisnotyetvisible.Frominsurersandreinsurerstodistributorsandtechnologyproviders,noneareexemptfromtheunderlyingchoicestheseforcescreate,andallhaveAI-poweredpotentialtoresetadormantindustryontoanewvectorofgrowth.

22026climateandcatastropheinsight,Aon,January20,2026.

3AdrienCurrat,JoePerry,andJefferyYong,Cyberinsuranceunpacked:Thecorporatedigitalsafetynet,FinancialStabilityInstitute,June2026.

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy4

Awideninggapbetweenrisingriskanderodingrelevance?

Revenuegrowthhastrailedmostmajorindustries—andglobalGDP(Exhibit2).Personallinesrepresented1percentofglobalGDPin2023,downfrom1.2percentin2019,withgrowthin

developedmarketslargelytheresultofrateincreasesratherthanexpansionintonewrisks.

Theglobalprotectiongapfornaturalcatastrophesisindeedvast;inanotherestimate,usinga

differentmethodology,theadditionalpremiumrequiredtocoveruninsuredlossesis$424billion.

4

Otherrisksaresimilarlyunderpenetrated;lessthan1percentofglobalcybercostsarecurrentlyinsured.

5

Insuranceis,inaggregate,becominglessrelevanttotheriskenvironmentevenasthatenvironmentgrowsmorecomplex.

Exhibit2

Revenuegrowthininsurancehastrailedmostindustries,andhasalsolaggedbehindGDPgrowth.

Revenuegrowth,byindustry2015–25,multiplesof2015revenue

3.93×

3.05×

2.63×

2.38×

2.01×

1.94×

1.86×

1.71×

1.65×

1.59×

1.58×

1.52×

1.51×

1.31×

1.24×

1.24×

1.12×

SoftwareSemiconductorsAutomobiles

Healthcareprovidersandservices

CommercialservicesandsuppliesProfessionalservicesPayments

Capitalmarkets

ITservicesPharmaceuticalsOilandgas

WorldGDP

InteractivemediaservicesElectricutilitiesBanks

Insurance

Foodproducts

Consumerfinance

5.94×

OutpacedGDP

LaggedbehindGDP

GlobalGDP

Note:Revenuesof20largestcompaniesineachsector.Insurancerevenuesincludenetpremiumincome,investmentincome,andnetinterestincome.

Source:WorldBank;McKinseyValueIntelligencePlatform;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

4SwissReInstitute.

5AdrienCurrat,JoePerry,andJefferyYong,Cyberinsuranceunpacked:Thecorporatedigitalsafetynet,FinancialStabilityInstitute,June2026.

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy5

CananAI-poweredindustryflipthescript?Theoptimisticcaseisreal,groundedinnewrisks,newsolutions,andnewmarketaccess:

—Newrisks:AIcreatesnewriskcategoriesthatexpandthetotaladdressablemarketin

waysthatcouldn’tbeservedatscalebefore.AIliability,nonphysicalbusinessinterruption,andAI-augmentedworkforcetransitionsarepoolsofriskgrowingfasterthanthe

industry’scurrentproductsetcanaddress.Further,AIexpandscyberrisk,whichisalready

underinsured.Parametricproducts,embeddedmicro-coverage(bite-sizepoliciesintegratedatthepointofsale,suchastravelprotectionofferedwhenbookingaflightordevicecoverageatcheckout),andon-demandpoliciesenabledbyreal-timedatacouldextendcoverageto

segmentspreviouslyuneconomictoserve.

—Newsolutions:AIalsoopensasecond,less-exploredpathtorelevance:ashiftfrompure

risktransfertoriskpartnership.Traditionalinsuranceisfundamentallyreactive—afinancial

instrumentthatrespondsaftersomethinggoeswrong.AImakespossiblesomething

different:continuous,data-drivenriskmonitoringthathelpscustomersunderstand,quantify,andmitigateexposuresbeforetheybecomeclaims.Considerthepossibilities:telematicsthatcoachesdriversinrealtimewhilerecalculating“premiumperminute”ofdriving.Commercialriskengineeringandprevention,updateddailybysatellite,telematics,andInternetofThingsdata.AI-enabledhealthcoachingtoimprovemortality,morbidity,andlongevity.Theserisk

partnershipsexistinpocketstodaybutarenotyetembeddedatthecoreofanewinsurancevalueproposition,onethatmovesinsurersfromthemarginofcustomers’riskmanagementdecisionstothecenterofthem.

—Newmarketaccess:Athirdpath—perhapsthemostconsequentialformarketexpansion—

runsthroughunderwritingandclaimsquality.Formanyrisks,thebarriertobroadercoverageisnotalackofdemandbutalackofconfidenceinrobustpricingandtheabilitytoreliably

underwrite.Climate-exposedproperty,cyber,andAI-relatedriskshareacommonproblem:

Underwritersdon’thaveenoughreliabledatatopricethemprecisely,andfrequencyandseverityofclaimsintheselinesarehardtopredict.Theresultishighpremiums,restrictedcoverage,oroutrightdeclines—leavinglargepoolsoflegitimateriskuninsured.

AIdirectlyaddressesbothunderwritingandclaims.Betterreal-timedataingestionand

continuousmodelrecalibrationcansharpenpricingonvolatilerisks.Andimprovedclaimsaccuracy—moreprecisereserving,earlieridentificationofproblems,bettersettlement

decisions—reducesthecostuncertaintythatforcesconservativepricinginthefirstplace.

Acarrierthatimprovesitslossratiobyfivepointsonariskitpreviouslyunderweightedcanwritemoreofit,priceitmorecompetitively,andreachcustomerscurrentlypricedoutof

themarket.Indeed,evenwithoutAI,claimsaccuracyisalreadyastructuralpriority.AIonly

enhancestheopportunity.Thecarriersthatbuildthiscapabilityearliestwillhavebothacostadvantageandtheconfidencetoentermarketsotherswon’ttouch.

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy6

Apessimisticcaseisnolessreal.Digitalrisksdon’tbehaveliketraditionalinsurancepools.

Sharedcloudinfrastructure,commonAImodeldependencies,andinterconnectedsupply

chainsmeanasinglefailurecantriggerlossesacrosshundredsofthousandsofenterprises

simultaneously.AIliabilityandsystemiccyberriskcouldprovecorrelatedinwaysthatmake

themgenuinelydifficulttodiversifyandpriceresponsibly.Alternativecapital,whichthriveson

independentrisk,mayhavelimitedappetiteforhighlycorrelatedexposuresthatmoveallatonce.Carriersthatentertheselineswithoutbuildingtheanalyticalcapabilitytounderstandhowlossespropagateriskrepeatingafamiliarpattern:chasingpremiuminagrowingcategorybeforethe

underlyingriskstructureisunderstood.Relevancerequiresnewunderwritingcapabilities,notjustnewproducts.

Questionsforleadersacrossthevaluechain:

DowehaveaclearviewofwhichnewriskmarketsAIwillcreate—andacredibleplantocapturethembeforecompetitorsdo?

ArewestresstestingourportfolioandpricingmodelsagainstAI-drivenshiftsinriskcorrelations—orarewestillrelyingonhistoricalindependenceassumptions?

Doweunderstandhowtomarryforward-lookingperspectiveswithhistoricallosseswhendevelopingnewproductsandpricingthem?

HowarewereimaginingclaimsmanagementwithAIasamajordriverofthelossratioandcustomerexperienceforbothtoday’sproductsandfutureones?

DowehaveaclearplanforusingAItobreakfreefromtheindustry’shistoricalconstraints(suchasstagnantexpenseratiosandaslowpaceofchange)?

Fromagentstoagenticcommerce?

Insurancehasalwaysbeenaproductthatissold,notbought,withdistributorsplayingacritical

roleinmanagingadvice,access,andfrictionthroughouttheprocess.Theycreateawareness

ofrisk,explaincomplexpolicies,guidecustomersthroughunderwriting,matchrisktocapital,

andhandleserviceinteractionsoftenslowedbycarriers’legacysystems.Thatstructurehas

persistedfordecades,anddistributionhasbeenworththecosttocarriers.Today,about85

percentofUSP&Cinsuranceand95percentoflifeinsurancepremiumsaredistributedthroughagents,brokers,andmanaginggeneralagents.Digitalizationhasdonelittletoalterthedynamicsoverall.Insomemarkets,aggregatorshaveincreasedpricetransparencyandshiftedsome

personal-linesvolumetodirectchannelsbutlefttheoverallstructurelargelyintact.

Distributors’tenaciousholdonthecustomerrelationshipshowsupinindustryeconomics.

Distributorshaveconsistentlyexceededcarriersintotalshareholderreturns(thoughnotethatthisyear,marketshavealsorecognizedtheAIthreattothesecompanies,withoneofthelargestdipsinTSRindecades).Inlargepart,thatfinancialsuccessissupportedbycommissions,whichhavebarelybudgedsince2005(Exhibit3).Afterclaims,distributionisthelargestsinglecost

categoryinP&Cinsurance.It’salsoabigcostinlife.OurresearchshowsthatmultichannelP&C

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy7

incumbentshavecostratiosatleast30percenthigherthanthoseofpuredirectplayers,withthegapattributablealmostentirelytosalesanddistributioncosts.6

Exhibit3

Intermediarieshaveconsistentlycapturedsignificantvalue.

Commissionsratiosandshareholderreturns2005–25

800

400

100

0

20052010201520202025

Distribution²

S&P500P&C

S&P500L&H

Totalshareholderreturns,index(100=Jan2,2005)

1,600

1,200

USinsurancestatutorydirectcommissionratio,1%

Change

16

14

12

10

8

+2.1

–1.3

2005–25,percentagepoints

Lifeandhealth(L&H)

Personalpropertyandcasualty(P&C)

–1.9

0

20052010201520202025

CommercialP&C

6

4

2

1Healthincludesaccidentandhealthfromlifefilersandinsurancecontractslinkedtoprivatemedicalcovers.

²MarketcapweightedindexofselectlistedUSpublicdistributorsandbrokers.

Source:USinsurancestatutorydataandmarketdata,S&PCapitalIQPro

McKinsey&Company

AIisthefirsttechnologywiththepotentialtocreateatrueparadigmshift.NewAIplatformshaveenteredthepictureandwillcompeteforcrucialcontrolpointssuchasownershipofcustomer

data,privilegedaccesstodemand,andtheabilitytoorchestratecomplexecosystems.Nearly

halfofcustomersinNorthAmericaalreadyuseAIintheirpersonalinsurance-buyingjourneys.

AsthesesamecustomersgoontoadoptAIforresearch,advice,andthepurchaseofother

complexservices,whatabouttoday’sexperienceofbuyinginsuranceisdurableenoughtokeepthemincurrentchannels?Forbuyersofmorecomplexrisks,howlikelyisitthatAIwillnotatleastremovefrictionandeffortfromstructuring,placing,andmonitoringrisk—andbegintochange

theeconomics?Threedynamicswillshapehowthisstoryunfolds:

—Theinterfaceisupforgrabs,especiallyforsimplerrisks.Onbehalfofcustomers,agenticAInowhasthecapabilitytowatchrenewaldates,querycarrierAPIsinrealtime,comparecoverageandpriceacrossmultipleproducts,andrecommendswitcheswellbeforethe

customerinitiatestheprocess.AIhealthcoachesandfinancialcopilotsextendthisfurther,foldinginsuranceintobroaderadviceonhealth,wealth,andrisk.Embeddedinsurance

goesfurtherstill:Thecustomerisnotevenshoppingforinsurancebutbuyscoverageatthemomentofneed,whetherwhenbuyingacar,closingonahome,orbookingaflight.Inthisworld—especiallyforsimpler,high-frequencyrisks—the“frontdoor”tothecustomer

6“Theproductivityimperativeininsurance,”McKinsey,August14,2019.

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy8

isnolongertheagent’sofficeorthecarrier’swebsite,butwhicheverAIassistant,platform,orecosystemthecustomertruststoactontheirbehalf.Thestrategicrisksareanewformofobscurityandlossofinfluence:WhenAIintermediariesdecidewhichoptionstosurface,beingtopofmindforagentsorspendingmoreonadvertisingnolongerguaranteesyou

areevenintheconsiderationsetinthecustomer’sAI.Traditionalstrategiestomarket,

push,andsecureprominencelosemuchoftheirpower;thecontestshiftstoshapingthe

criteriaanddatathatdriveAIrecommendations.Forcarriersandbrokersalike,thelogicofrecommendationbecomesthenewbattlegroundforgrowth.

—Theinformationadvantagemaybeshifting.Insurancehasalwaysbeenaninformation

business.Thecarrier’sedgewasknowingmoreabouttheriskthanthecustomer,basedon

decadesoflosscausationrecords,repaircosttrajectories,andlitigationoutcomes.Brokershaveputthatedgeunderpressurebyaggregatingmulticarrierdatatodevelopcomparativeintelligencethatnosinglecarrierpossesses.AIelevatesthestakesevenfurther.AIplatformsobservingcross-marketbehavioranddataprovidersholdingconsumerandfinancialdata

couldbuildcustomerprofilesthataremorepredictivethanunderwritinghistoriesinhigh-frequencylines,whilebrokerswithmulticarrierdatacanuseAItoaccumulatecomparativeintelligencethatnosinglecarrierpossesses.Currentplayersthatassumetheirdata

advantageisproprietaryandintactmaybethelasttorecognizethatitisnot.

—Trusthasalwaysbeenthegatekeeper,butitissplintering.Insuranceisapromise,evaluatedunderstress.Historically,trustoperatedasaretentiontool:Itkeptcustomersrenewingandheldrelationshipstogetherthroughfriction.Buttrustininsuranceisnotjustonething.IthasatleastthreecomponentsthatAIwillaffectdifferently.Trustintherelationship—thehumanconnectionincomplexclaims,difficultadvice,momentsofgenuinedistress—issomething

AIcannotyetreplicate,andplayersthatinvestinitdeliberatelywillfinditcompounds.Trustincredentials—licensing,institutionalcredibility,solvencyratings—hashistoricallybeen

anincumbent’sadvantage,butasplatformsandAI-nativeplayersaccumulatetheirown

formsofcredibility,thatadvantageisupforgrabs.Trustinexplanationandadvice—the

abilityofhumanstohelpacustomerunderstandwhattheyarecoveredfor,whytheirclaimwasdecidedthewayitwas,andwhattheyshoulddonext—isanareawhereAImayactuallyoutperformthetraditionalmodel:Itispatient,nonjudgmental,andavailableatanyhour,

anditdoesnotmakecustomersfeelfoolishforasking.Thecarriersthattreatallthreedimensionsdeliberatelywillbebetterpositionedthanthosetreatingtrustasasinglecompliancecheckbox.

Whiletheseshiftsarerealandalreadyvisible,thefutureofdistributionwillnotbemonolithic.

Disintermediationwilladvancequicklyinsomeproductsandsegments,andmuchmore

graduallyornotatallinothers.Incommoditizedpersonallines,AIagentsandplatformsarelikelytositbetweencustomersandcarriers,reroutingvolumeasmoreactivitypassesthroughtheir

interfacesratherthantraditionalchannels.Inmorecomplexsegments(midmarketcommercial,

specialty,andhigh-net-worthpersonallines),whereadvice,bespokestructuring,andclaims

advocacymattermore,AIismorelikelytoshowupfirstasaforceforcostcompressionand

capabilityuplift,makingitmateriallycheaperandeasierforagentsandbrokerstoquote,explain,andservice,ratherthandisplacingthemoutright.Inthosesegments,thereisascenarioinwhichcommissionscompress,carriersmayrecapturesomemargin,andintermediationmaydriftdownmodestlyratherthancollapse.Thestrategicquestionisless“willAIreplacedistribution?”and

more“whocapturestheevolvingvalue—carriers,distributors,orcustomers—andwhoultimatelyownsthecustomerrelationshipasthesedynamicsplayout?”Today,thatanswerislargely

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy9

distributors;tomorrow,itmightstillbedistributors,butoverthenextdecade,AIcouldputthequestionbackonthetable.

Questionsforleadersacrossthevaluechain:

Forcarriers:

Whenyourbestcustomer’sAIagentgoesshoppingforcoverage,willitfindyou—andonwhatterms?

Incomplexrisks,whoisyourrealcustomer:thedistributor’sAI,thelargelanguagemodel(LLM),ortheinsured?

Forbrokersandagents:

Isyourvaluepropositionbuiltonaccessoradvice,andhowareyoubuildingeitherorbothfortheAIfuture?

HowwillyouusetheefficiencydividendthatAIcreatesforyou—tomakeproducerstwotothreetimesmoreproductive,liftmargins,ordeepencapabilityandservice?

Forplatforms:

Yourbehavioraldatamaybemorepredictiveofcustomerneedsthananycarrier’sunderwritinghistory.

Whichwillcreatemorevalue:partnershipsorunderwritingriskdirectly?

Whocontrolsyourinsurancerecommendationlogic,andwhoseinterestsdoesitservefirst?

Incontrasttomostindustries,insurancehasfailedto

improveitscostefficiencyinthepasttwodecades.

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy10

WillAIrealizethelong-delayedpromiseofproductivity?

Incontrasttomostindustries,insurancehasfailedtoimproveitscostefficiencyinthe

pasttwodecades(Exhibit4).Ouranalysisoflargeglobalcompaniesshowsthatwhilethe

telecommunications,automotive,andairlineindustrieshavereducedtheircostratios(SG&Atorevenues)materiallysince2005,insurancecostratiosare10percenthigherglobally,evenastheindustryinvestedheavilyinautomationanddigitaltooling.

Exhibit4

Since2005,operatingexpensesasashareofrevenuehaverisen10percentglobally,and22percentinNorthAmerica.

Insurancecost

e代ciency

(SG&A/revenue)1index(100=2005)

5

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

2005201020152020202

Change2005–25,%

NorthAmerica

+22

Europe²

+12

Global

+10

Asia–Pacific

–27

1SG&Aexpensesincludenetsalescommissions;totalrevenuesincludenetinvestmentrevenue,asdisclosedinpubliccarrierfinancialfilings.Includespublicpropertyandcasualtyandlifeandhealthinsurers.

²Volatilityinexpensesfrom2022–25,drivenbyEuropeaninsurersadoptingIFRS17accounting.

Source:S&PCapitalIQ;McKinseyanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Theexplanationisnotthattechnologyfailedtoimprovelaborproductivity—itdid,by14percentinP&Cand24percentinlife,acrossclaims,servicing,andpolicyissuance.

7

Theproblemis

structural:GainswereconsistentlyoffsetbyrisingITcosts,complianceoverhead,andthe

complexityintroducedbylayeringnewdigitaltoolsontolegacyoperatingmodels.Efficiencyimproved.Averageindustrycostsincreased.

AIchangestheequationintwoways.First,itcanapplytoandoperateontheentirecost

structureinawaythatpriortechnologies(suchasroboticprocessautomation)couldnot,

creatingthepotentialtocollapsemarginalcostsinunderwriting,claims,andservicing

simultaneously.Today,domain-leveltransformationsarealreadyproducingreductionsof20to

40percentincustomeronboardingcostsandimprovementsof10to20percentininsuranceagentproductivity.

8

7“Theproductivityimperativeininsurance,”McKinsey,August14,2019;AlexD’Amico,KweilinEllingrud,DanielGarza,andNancySzmolyan,“TheproductivityimperativeforUSlifeandannuitiescarriers,”McKinsey,March16,2021.

8“ThefutureofAIintheinsuranceindustry,”McKinsey,July15,2025.

HowAIwillreshapetheeconomicsofinsurance:ACEO’sguidetostrategy11

Second,andmoreconsequentially,AIreshapesscaleeconomics.WhileAIisnotcostless—therearerealcostsforcompute,models,andorchestration,andindeedthesecostsarealreadyringingalarmbellsatsomecompanies9—ithasthepotentialtomateriallylowertheunitcostofmany

underwriting,servicing,andclaimstasksbelowtoday’shuman-andrules-basedapproaches.

ThatallowsAI-firstcarrierstogrowvolumemuchfasterthancost,achievinglevelsofproductivityandoperatingleveragethatareverydifficultforlaggardstomatch.

Thatshifthasacompetitiveconsequenceandsuggeststwoviablepathsforinsurers:

—Scale:Carriersandbrokerswithsufficientpremiumvolumetoamortizetheup-frontcapital

requiredfordatainfrastructure,modeldevelopment,andtechnologyplatformswilloperate

atexpenseratiosthatmidsizegeneralistsstruggletomatch,notbecausevastlylowerunit

costsareoutofreach,butbecausetheinvestmentrequiredtogettherefavorsthosewhocanspreaditacrossalargerbase.

—Deepspecialization:AsAIreducesthefrictionofconnectingspecializedunderwriting

capabilitytodistributionplatforms,capitalproviders,andclaimsinfrastructure,afirmthatdoesonethingwithgenuinedistinctionandaccesseseverythingelsethroughpartners

couldbeequallywellpositioned.ThegrowthofAI-nativemanaginggeneralagents(MGAs)pluggingintoplatforminfrastructureratherthanbuildingitisanearlyexpressionofthat

pattern.

Whatisnotdefensibleisdeferralorthemiddleground.ThechoicebetweenowningthefullAI

stackandaccessingitthroughpartnershipsisincreasinglyurgent.Firmsneedclarityontwo

questionssimultaneously:wheretheyarecompeting—throughscaleordeepspecialization—

andhowtheywillleveragetechnologytogetthere.Withoutthatclarity,firmsbecometakers

twiceover:acceptingthecompetitivepositionthemarketassignsthem,andacceptingthe

technologystacktheycurrentlyhaveoroneofferedbyvendors.FirmsthattreatAIasagradualmodernizationprogramrunningalongsidethebusiness,ratherthanasacompetitivedisruption,mayfindthegaptoindustryleadershiphaswidenedtoofarbythetimeitsurfacesintheP&L.

Questionsforleadersacrossthevaluechain:

Wheredowesitonthecostcurvetoday,andwhathappenstoourcompetitivepositionifthe