宁德时代Q2利润快增叠加大额回购提振信心

元）营业收入（左轴）营业收入yoy（右轴）元）营业收入（左轴）营业收入yoy（右轴）0

200%150%100%50%0%-50%

（亿元）0

归母净利润（左轴） 归母净利润yoy（右轴）200%150%100%50%0%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20252026H1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20252026H1图表3：毛利率与净利率变化 图表4：各项费用率变化30%

毛利率 净利率

10%

销售费用率 管理费用率 研发费用率 研发费用率财务费用率8%20%6%15%4%10%5% 2%0%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026H1

0%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026H1(300750CH/3750HK)2025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q22026Q3E2026Q4E总收入（亿元）1,041.861,406.301,291.311,477.861458.601853.05营业收入同比增速（%）12.90%36.58%52.45%56.92%40.00%31.77%营业收入环比增速（%）10.62%34.98%-8.18%14.45%-1.30%27.04%营业成本（亿元）773.041009.56970.861135.691093.951401.09营业成本同比增速（%）21.71%15.40%51.63%62.02%41.51%38.78%营业成本环比增速（%）10.29%30.60%-3.83%16.98%-3.67%28.08%总毛利（亿元）268.82396.74320.45342.17364.65451.96总毛利同比增速（%）-6.54%156.26%55.00%42.05%35.65%13.92%总毛利环比增速（%）11.60%47.58%-19.23%6.78%6.57%23.94%总毛利率（%）25.80%28.21%24.82%23.15%25.00%24.39%总毛利率同比变动（pct）-5.3713.180.41-2.42-0.80-3.82总毛利率环比变动（pct）0.232.41-3.40-1.661.85-0.61费用率（%）7.36%7.76%7.26%6.46%7.50%7.67%-销售及管理费用率（%）3.73%3.39%3.10%2.83%3.00%3.07%-研发费用率（%）4.77%5.03%4.12%4.10%4.50%4.76%费用率同比变动（pct）-2.477.910.181.130.14-0.10-销售及管理费用率（pct）-3.17.71-1-0.65-0.73-0.32-研发费用率（pct）-0.08-0.34-1.57-1.5-0.27-0.28费用率环比变动（pct）2.030.40-0.50-0.801.040.17-销售及管理费用率（pct）0.26-0.35-0.29-0.270.170.07-研发费用率（pct）-0.830.26-0.92-0.010.400.26归母净利润（亿元）185.49231.67207.38225.46241.35277.67归母净利润(同比)（%）41.21%57.13%48.52%36.46%30.11%19.85%归母净利润(环比)（%）12.26%24.90%-10.49%8.72%7.05%15.05%归母净利率（%）17.80%16.47%16.06%15.26%16.55%14.98%归母净利润率(同比)（pct）3.572.16-0.42-2.29-1.26-1.49归母净利润率(环比)（pct）0.26-1.33-0.41-0.801.29-1.56EPS（元）4.15.14.54.95.26.0预测(300750CH/3750HK)图表6：季度经营情况总结季度财报数据总结 3Q25A 4Q25A 1Q26A 2Q26AYoYQoQ3Q26EYoYQoQ总收入 Rmbmn104,185.73140,629.85129,131.04147,785.5457%14%145,860.0340%-1%营业成本 Rmbmn77,303.54100,956.1597,086.37113,568.5262%17%109,395.0242%-4%毛利率 % 25.80% 28.21% 24.82% 23.15%-2.42pct-1.66pct25.00%-0.80pct1.85pct销售及管理费用 Rmbmn 3,891.28 4,761.62 4,004.03 4,179.1528%4%4,375.8012%5%研发费用 Rmbmn 4,973.26 7,078.76 5,313.77 6,062.7715%14%6,563.7032%8%财务费用 Rmbmn-1,193.98 -924.08 62.27 -693.06-80%-1213%-291.72-76%-58%营业利润 Rmbmn21,731.7928,966.3226,651.2929,013.4735%9%29,755.4537%3%税前利润 Rmbmn21,899.9028,814.1426,681.6029,085.2536%9%29,682.5236%2%所得税 Rmbmn 1,968.48 4,324.70 3,944.35 4,791.8722%21%4,007.14104%-16%少数股东损益 Rmbmn 1,382.45 1,322.27 1,999.54 1,747.0978%-13%1,540.5211%-12%归母净利润 Rmbmn18,548.9723,167.1720,737.7122,546.2936%9%24,134.8530%7%非经常性损益 Rmbmn 2,127.21 2,278.53 2,645.07 1,625.6341%-39%2,896.1836%78%净利润(扣非) Rmbmn16,421.7620,888.6418,092.6420,920.6636%16%21,238.6729%2%EPS Rmb/sh 4.07 5.08 4.54 4.8734%7%5.2228%7%EPS(扣非) Rmb/sh 3.6 4.58 3.96 4.5234%14%4.5928%2%核心财务指标应收账款周转天数 days 62.29 59.7 53.71 53.57-17%0%应付账款周转天数 days 167.89 167.86 158.03 155.02-13%-2%存货周转天数 days 89.93 89.39 94.68 96.588%2%经营净现金流 Rmbmn21,973.3652,559.5533,680.8526,536.003%-21%资本支出 Rmbmn 9,874.8612,256.7812,416.3012,656.4728%2%自由现金流 Rmbmn12,098.5040,302.7721,264.5513,879.53-13%-35%净负债 Rmbmn224,828.47270,288.29300,099.32352,872.2884%18%净负债率%64.79%72.85%76.12%85.24%25.99pct9.12pct预测驱动概览2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E全球新能源汽车销量增速%25.19%22.55%15.74%17.32%13.23%动力电池收入同比增速%-11.29%25.08%36.28%21.86%20.71%储能电池收入同比增速%-4.36%8.99%85.90%28.26%26.97%分部收入动力电池Rmbmn253041.34316506.37431325.20525593.35634463.42储能电池Rmbmn57290.4662439.82116077.50148886.29189042.99材料业务Rmbmn34192.9427839.0335179.3841710.7048221.89其他Rmbmn17487.8216916.6125500.0025500.0025500.00销量动力电池GWh3815416758301010yoy%19%42%25%23%22%储能电池GWh93121225290370yoy%35%30%87%29%28%单位价格动力电池元/Wh0.660.590.640.630.63yoy%-25%-12%9%-1%-1%储能电池元/Wh0.620.520.520.510.51yoy%-29%-16%0%-0.5%-0.5%单位成本动力电池元/Wh0.510.450.500.500.49储能电池元/Wh0.450.380.390.380.38分部毛利率动力电池%23.94%23.84%21.45%21.58%21.78%储能电池%26.84%26.71%25.01%25.26%25.68%材料业务%10.19%23.83%25.00%25.00%25.00%其他%51.76%74.29%69.00%69.00%69.00%毛利占比动力电池%68.46%67.77%62.53%63.34%63.86%储能电池%17.38%14.98%19.63%21.01%22.44%材料业务%3.94%5.96%5.95%5.82%5.57%其他%10.23%11.29%11.89%9.83%8.13%核心财务指标EBITRmbbn57.5681.67113.64140.24168.26EBITDARmbbn82.50108.60143.08179.03213.24联合营公司投资收益Rmbbn3.747.3510.9513.3516.15净利润Rmbbn50.7472.2095.19116.18140.58扣非净利润Rmbbn44.9964.5183.76102.24123.71EPSRmb/sh11.5816.1420.5725.1130.38EPS(扣非)Rmb/sh10.2214.1318.1022.1026.74BVPSRmb/sh54.1073.8685.58104.43128.15应收账款周转天数days63.7259.7059.7059.7059.70应付账款周转天数days163.22167.86167.86167.86167.86存货周转天数days69.2888.9588.9588.9588.95经营净现金流Rmbmn96990.35133219.98214259.74129385.94281880.38资本支出Rmbmn31179.9442344.5676144.3256702.6666097.77自由现金流Rmbbn65.8190.88138.1272.68215.78净负债Rmbbn209.69270.29365.61330.92365.61净负债率%77%73%84%62%56%预测(300750CH/3750HK)核心驱动全球新能源汽车销量增速%2026Q2-YoY-AvsE-财报数据总结总收入Rmbmn129,131.04147,785.5457%136,563.418.22%营业成本Rmbmn97,086.37113,568.5262%101,056.9312.38%毛利率%24.82%23.15%-2.42pct26.00%-2.85pct销售及管理费用Rmbmn4,004.034,179.1528%4,711.44-11.30%研发费用Rmbmn5,313.776,062.7715%6,828.17-11.21%财务费用Rmbmn62.27-693.06-80%-1,365.63-49.25%营业利润Rmbmn26,651.2929,013.4735%29,443.07-1.46%税前利润Rmbmn26,681.6029,085.2536%29,443.07-1.22%所得税Rmbmn3,944.354,791.8722%4,122.0316.25%少数股东损益Rmbmn1,999.541,747.0978%1,519.2615.00%归母净利润Rmbmn20,737.7122,546.2936%23,801.78-5.27%非经常性损益Rmbmn2,645.071,625.6341%2,618.20-37.91%净利润(扣非)Rmbmn18,092.6420,920.6636%21,183.58-1.24%EPSRmb/sh4.544.8734%5.22-6.70%EPS(扣非)Rmb/sh3.964.5234%4.64-2.59%核心财务指标有效税率%14.78%16.48%-1.87pct14.00%2.48pct少数股东损益占比%8.79%7.19%1.59pct6.00%1.19pct应收账款周转天数days53.7153.57-17%应付账款周转天数days158.03155.02-13%存货周转天数days94.6896.588%经营净现金流Rmbmn33680.85265363%资本支出Rmbmn12416.312656.4728%自由现金流Rmbmn21264.5513879.53-13%净负债Rmbmn300099.32352872.2884%净负债率%76.12%85.24%25.99pct预测(300750CH/3750HK)股价市值EPS(元)PE(倍)公司代码公司简称(元)(亿元)2026E2027E2026E2027E300014CH亿纬锂能53.961,172.713.194.3116.9312.53002594CH比亚迪91.898,377.794.495.6620.4516.25002074CH国轩高科26.85487.251.091.6124.5316.73均值20.6415.17图表10：H股可比公司估值表（ 一致预期，截至2026年7月24日收盘价）市值PE(倍)EV/EBITDA(倍)公司代码公司简称(亿美金)2026E2027E2026E2027E3677.HK正力新能181071280666.HK瑞浦兰钧301912128FLNCUSFluence能源股份有限公司28-615222FSLRUS福思第一太阳能公司22812986373220KSLG新能源52534,587461913CSIQUS阿特斯阳光电力有限公司10-11118ENPHUSEnphase能源股份有限公司5420171714均值1811Bloomberg，iFind图表11：宁德时代PE-Bands 图表12：宁德时代PB-Bands(人民币)545

━━━━━宁德时代

(人民币)551

━━━━━宁德时代409273136

30x 25x 20x15x

414276138

5.1x0Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26

0Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26(300750CH/3750HK)、华泰研究 、华泰研究(300750CH/3750HK)盈利预测资产负债表利润表会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E流动资产510,142638,482873,077992,2161,220,543营业收入362,013423,702608,082741,690897,228现金303,512333,513478,646583,815706,245营业成本273,519312,383460,159562,649680,863应收账款64,13676,403125,293120,720176,884营业税金及附加2,0572,8323,0403,7084,486其他应收账款2,2072,1204,0903,4845,678营业费用3,5633,7354,8655,9347,106预付账款5,97014,28214,78320,66922,217管理费用9,69011,66713,37816,31719,542存货59,83694,526132,858145,171191,272财务费用(4,132)(7,940)(1,216)(4,450)(5,384)其他流动资产74,482117,637117,408118,358118,247资产减值损失(8,423)(8,660)(5,169)(6,304)(7,626)非流动资产276,516336,346408,213455,516504,616公允价值变动收益664.22974.082,4321,4831,794长期投资54,79264,88489,314117,857144,891投资净收益3,9887,97110,94513,35016,150固定投资112,589146,401186,980204,640223,021营业利润64,05289,519119,708146,110176,798无形资产14,42015,26416,69416,64317,152营业外收入135.42463.52608.08741.69897.23其他非流动资产94,716109,797115,225116,377119,553营业外支出1,005455.61608.08741.69897.23资产总计786,658974,8281,281,2901,447,7331,725,159利润总额63,18289,527119,708146,110176,798流动负债317,172399,626638,693722,549893,807所得税9,17512,74017,35821,18625,636短期借款19,69612,93567,750150,966105,318净利润54,00776,786102,350124,924151,162应付账款130,977160,329268,783255,904379,020少数股东损益3,2624,5857,1658,74510,581其他流动负债166,498226,362302,161315,679409,469归属母公司净利润50,74572,20195,186116,179140,581非流动负债196,030204,175205,566192,185178,044EBITDA82,496108,603143,085179,027213,235长期借款81,23878,23579,62666,24452,103EPS(人民币，基本)11.5816.1420.5725.1130.38其他非流动负债114,792125,940125,940125,940125,940负债合计513,202603,801844,259914,7331,071,851主要财务比率少数股东权益26,52633,91941,08349,82860,409会计年度(%)202420252026E2027E2028E股本4,4034,5644,6274,6274,627成长能力资本公积116,756156,248156,248156,248156,248营业收入(9.70)17.0443.5221.9720.97留存公积128,796176,904228,079290,541366,122营业利润19.2439.7633.7222.0621.00归属母公司股东权益246,930337,108395,947483,171592,900归属母公司净利润15.0142.2831.8322.0621.00负债和股东权益786,658974,8281,281,2901,447,7331,725,159获利能力(%)毛利率24.4426.2724.3324.1424.11现金流量表净利率14.9218.1216.8316.8416.85会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028EROE22.8324.7225.9726.4326.13经营活动现金96,990133,220214,260129,386281,880ROIC12.4815.5817.8717.6518.33净利润54,00776,786102,350124,924151,162偿债能力折旧摊销24,93826,93729,44338,78344,976资产负债率(%)65.2461.9465.8963.1862.13财务费用(4,132)(7,940)(1,216)(4,450